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Transcript of “Old Approach to Needs Analysis” The standard practice in Oregon has been to extrapolate forward...
The Housing/Land Needs Model
A Methodology for Calculating and Analyzing Housing and Land Needs
Developed by
Richard Bjelland
Oregon’s Statewide Planning Goal 10
Goal 10 – the Housing goal - provides directionand guidance to the state and its city governmentsabout how to plan for balanced housingopportunities in Oregon communities.
Goal 10 states that “plans shall encourage theavailability of adequate numbers of neededhousing units at price ranges and rent levels whichare commensurate with the financial capabilitiesof Oregon households and allow for flexibility ofhousing location, type and density. “
“Old Approach to Needs Analysis”
The standard practice in Oregon has been to extrapolate forward the past 5 or more years in housing production as the basis for determining a region’s future housing requirements.
“Demand” was assumed to be equivalent to “need”.
“New Methodology”
A guiding principal in the development of the housing needs model was that the methodology for calculating housing needs was to be driven by the demographics of the study area – by people not production.
Housing Need is Defined by Housing Choice Options
Tenure - Rent versus Own
Price - What is an affordable price range
Housing type - What style of housing is desired
Initial Research
Identify those demographic variables that would be highly correlated with housing needs
Two variables – age of head of household (Age - A) and household income (Income – I) - demonstrated significantly stronger correlation with housing tenure than other variables including household size
Household income is the key variable in determining the affordability component of housing needs
Age and Income data is available for each potential study area
Initial Steps Select the age and income ranges that would be used to
break the study area’s population into household cohorts
Seven Age ranges - under 25, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75 and older - were chosen
Seven Income ranges - under $10,000; 10,000-19,999; 20,000-29,999; 30,000-39,999; 40,000-49,999; 50,000-74,999; 75,000 and over - were chosen
These age and income ranges define 49 Age/Income cohorts and were determined to be the most useful ranges for calculating housing needs
Initial Steps (cont.) Find a source of demographic data for the 49
Age/Income cohorts Census 2000 was selected as the source for this
demographic data Households in these 49 Age/Income (AI) cohorts
make significantly different housing tenure choices as reflected by the Census data
Use the choices derived from the Census for each cohort as the basis for tenure parameters in the model
Next Steps Compared model results with Census 2000 data Determined that households in certain types of cities
made different housing tenure choices Created three categories of census places with model
tenure parameters for each category Version U - Urban, college, and resort Version M - Medium Rural (6,750 -22,500) Version S - Small Rural (under 6,750)
Added “wealth” factor to model Added mortgage rate factor for affordability impact
Number of Census Places
2000 Population
% Population
% Owner-occupied Housing
% Renter-occupied housing
Persons per
Household
Population outside Census Places 855,704 25.0% 80.5% 19.5% 2.671
Census Places Under 1,000 117 48,240 1.4% 73.5% 26.5% 2.498
Census Places 1,000-2,499 68 111,213 3.3% 71.2% 28.8% 2.552
Census Places 2,500-4,999 35 126,957 3.7% 68.4% 31.6% 2.653
Census Places 5,000-9,999 39 276,049 8.1% 61.2% 38.8% 2.518
Census Places 10,000-19,999 26 373,197 10.9% 61.6% 38.4% 2.607
Cities 20,000-49,999 14 421,534 12.3% 60.3% 39.7% 2.611
Cities 50,000-99,999 6 404,567 11.8% 54.3% 45.7% 2.595
Cities over 100,000 3 803,938 23.5% 55.3% 44.7% 2.418
All Census Places 308 2,565,695 75.0% 59.1% 40.9% 2.532
Oregon 3,421,399 100.0% 64.3% 35.7% 2.565
Analysis of Housing Tenure in Oregon by Census Place Size
Number of Census
Places
2000 Population
% Population
% Owner-occupied Housing
% Renter-occupied housing
Persons per
Household
Population outside Census Places 855,704 25.0% 80.5% 19.5% 2.67
Census Places Under 5,000 220 286,410 8.4% 70.4% 29.6% 2.59
Census Places 5,000-49,999 79 1,070,780 31.3% 61.0% 39.0% 2.59
Cities over 50,000 9 1,208,505 35.3% 55.0% 45.0% 2.47
Oregon 3,421,399 100.0% 64.3% 35.7% 2.57
2000 Census Data
Oregon Census Places Grouped by Similar Housing Tenure
HHr 15 to 24 years
HHr 25 to 34 years
HHr 35 to 44 years
HHr 45 to 54 years
HHr 55 to 64 years
HHr 65 to 74 years
HHr 75 years +
URC 7.8% 34.9% 58.5% 70.0% 74.5% 76.4% 67.1%
M 20.7% 52.5% 64.5% 72.4% 77.5% 81.4% 70.1%
S 27.2% 54.7% 67.1% 76.8% 81.1% 84.9% 78.2%
Less than $10,000
$10,000 to $19,999
$20,000 to $24,999
$25,000 to $34,999
$35,000 to $49,999
$50,000 to $74,999
$75,000 and up
URC 23.1% 34.0% 39.9% 45.7% 57.0% 71.5% 85.8%
M 31.6% 45.6% 54.5% 59.4% 67.6% 79.5% 89.2%
S 47.1% 58.1% 64.7% 69.9% 74.9% 83.7% 89.6%
Data Set: Census 2000 Summary File 3 (SF 3) - Sample Data
Percentage of Households Who are Homeowners by Age of Householder
Oregon Households in Census Places
Percentage of Households Who are Homeowners by Household Income
15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
<10k 2.9% 7.9% 16.0% 25.0% 43.0% 46.1% 40.0%
10k<20k 3.6% 12.7% 25.0% 37.0% 47.0% 61.0% 56.2%
20k<30k 6.0% 16.6% 36.0% 45.0% 54.0% 73.2% 67.1%
30k<40k 7.9% 23.9% 48.0% 53.7% 60.0% 74.4% 70.1%
40k<50k 10.8% 32.9% 58.1% 62.4% 80.0% 91.0% 84.0%
50k<75k 22.5% 49.9% 72.0% 82.9% 88.6% 92.1% 91.2%
75k+ 32.0% 75.0% 83.0% 92.0% 96.0% 97.0% 93.0%
Oregon Census Places 2000 Parameters
Urban Resort College
Homeownership Percentage by Age and Income Cohorts
Model Assumptions Housing need is defined by cohort tenure choices and is
equivalent to the actual cohort tenure data found within a large regional area
While the local supply of rental versus ownership housing may not be in equilibrium with tenure need in some markets, on a larger regional basis it is in equilibrium
Housing that is at “price ranges and rent levels commensurate with the financial capabilities of Oregon households” means that no more than 30% of a household’s income should be spent on housing costs, i.e., is affordable
The seven Income ranges in conjunction with the 30% limit on housing costs establishes the price ranges and rent levels used in the model to calculate the housing units needed at each price point
Model Design Goals Model structure should employ individual modules for each analytical
component by using Excel templates. Data needed to drive the model must be available. Data gathering requirements for each locality should be minimized. Parameters in the model should be easy to update and modify. Model should be a user-friendly tool for city staff or interested parties. Model should allow users to easily test out different growth scenarios. Model should automatically produce tables and graphs that can be used
as printed material for public dissemination of model results. Model should reflect local conditions and characteristics. Model should work for any size city and location. Model should accommodate interaction with other planning goals. Model should be flexible and have a variety of uses beyond satisfying
Goal 10.
Model Housing Types
Single Family Units – either site built or manufactured single family dwellings on their own lot
Manufactured Dwelling Park Unit – a single family dwelling unit located in a rental park
Duplex Unit – a two-family dwelling unit located on its own lot
Tri-plex or Quad-plex Unit – a three or four-family dwelling unit
5+ Multi-family Unit – dwelling units in buildings with 5 or more units per building
Five housing types have been identified for use in the model to categorize a community’s existing inventory of dwelling units. Each of these housing types can be owner occupied or renter occupied.
Why cities should use the Model
The model represents a methodology that guides cities through a process that appropriately determines their housing needs in a way that compels them to address the types of housing needed to support their population
The output of the housing needs module then drives the land use module which calculates the land needed within their UGB for housing
User Inputs for Running Model Housing inventory by Housing Type and Price Point Out Factor adjustment for reflecting local lifestyle
choices - optional Future population projection and household
Income/Age distribution Planned distribution of new housing units by
housing type, tenure, and price point Planned housing density by land use zone Housing inventory by land use zone Planned distribution of new housing units by zone Buildable land inventory by land use zone
Model templates color scheme
Label or data descriptor for data element
Model parameter such as the percentage of Households in this Age / Income cohort that will own or rent
A model input requirement such as the percentage of Households that are in this Age / Income cohort
A number produced by the Housing Needs Analysis template reflecting the data, assumptions, and estimates used in this scenario
Housing/Land Needs Templates
• The following slides demonstrate the templates and graphs used in the model to calculate and display housing and land needs.
• These slides are taken from several model runs and will not be internally consistent.
• The model contains additional templates and graphs that are similar to those that follow.
Name identifying the area of interest for this needs analysis
Date of time frame of data used to define Current Housing Status
Date or year that represents the end of the planning period
Vacancy factor for ownership units used for this scenario
Vacancy factor for rental units used for this scenario
Name assigned to this scenario that will be displayed on output
Mortgage rates are high
Mortgage rates are low
Average historical mortgage rate
2.0%
6.0%
Historical 1
Click on the appropriate button below to select the mortgage assumptions to be used in this model run to set the Ownership price points for this scenario's time period
2000
2020
The Housing Needs Model - Version M©
A Methodology and Model for Calculating and Analyzing Housing Needs
Model Parameters Input Sheet
Scenario Parameters
Cascadia
High
Low
Historic
Home
CACurrent
Population
CBPersons in
Group Quarters
CCOccupied Dwelling Units* /
Households
CDPersons
per Household
CEVacant Units
CFCurrent
Total Dwelling Units**
CGCurrent Vacancy
Rate
Actual or estimated
Actual or estimated
Actual or estimated
(CA-CB)/CCActual or estimated
CC+CE CE/CF
28,650 190 11,345 2.509 600 11,945 5.02%
* Number of non-Group Quarter Occupied Dwelling Units = Number of Households** Excludes Group Quarter Dwelling Units
Template 1
Housing Needs ©
Current Housing Status
For Cascadia
Scenario Historical 1
as of 2000
Home
FAFuture
Population
FB Future
Persons in Group
Quarters
FCFuture
Persons per Household
FD Future
Occupied Dwelling
Units*
FE Current
Total Dwelling
Units
FF Dwelling
Units Removed
FG New
Dwelling Units
Needed**Estimated Estimated Estimated (FA-FB)/FC CF Estimated FD-FE+FF
42,100 285 2.45 17,067 11,945 340 5,462
* Number of non-Group Quarter Occupied Dwelling Units** Excludes Group Quarter Dwelling Units
as of 2020
Projected Future Housing Status
HHs in Cohort as % of all
AI Cohort HHs
AgeIncome (Note 1)
Renter %
Homeowner %
11,345 Number Rental Owned% of HHs (Note 2)
Owned Units Out
Remaining Units
<10k 96.7% 3.3% 0.9181% 104 100.7 3.4 0 - 199 <28.3k 20% 0.7 2.7
10k <20k 88.5% 11.5% 1.4075% 160 141.3 18.4 200 - 429 28.3k <56.7k 20% 3.7 14.7
20k <30k 82.8% 17.2% 1.2955% 147 121.7 25.3 430 - 664 56.7k <85k 15% 3.8 21.5
30k <40k 77.3% 22.7% 0.8863% 101 77.7 22.8 665 - 909 85k <113.3k 15% 3.4 19.4
40k <50k 67.6% 32.4% 0.8517% 97 65.3 31.3 910 - 1149 113.3k <141.7k 8% 2.5 28.8
50k <75k 63.0% 37.0% 0.8476% 96 60.6 35.6 1150 - 1764 141.7k <212.5k 5% 1.8 33.8
75k+ 51.1% 48.9% 0.1977% 22 11.5 11.0 1765+ 212.5k+ 5% 0.5 10.4
<10k 81.2% 18.8% 1.2098% 137 111.4 25.8 0 - 199 <28.3k 20% 5.2 20.6
10k <20k 68.2% 31.8% 2.0587% 234 159.3 74.3 200 - 429 28.3k <56.7k 20% 14.9 59.4
20k <30k 65.2% 34.8% 2.6754% 304 197.9 105.6 430 - 664 56.7k <85k 15% 15.8 89.8
30k <40k 57.5% 42.5% 3.1040% 352 202.5 149.7 665 - 909 85k <113.3k 15% 22.4 127.2
40k <50k 48.0% 52.0% 2.9768% 338 162.1 175.6 910 - 1149 113.3k <141.7k 8% 14.0 161.6
50k <75k 31.5% 68.5% 4.6830% 531 167.4 363.9 1150 - 1764 141.7k <212.5k 5% 18.2 345.7
75k+ 16.0% 84.0% 2.5814% 293 46.9 246.0 1765+ 212.5k+ 5% 12.3 233.7
<10k 78.8% 21.2% 1.3246% 150 118.4 31.9 0 - 199 <28.3k 20% 6.4 25.5
10k <20k 66.0% 34.0% 2.0449% 232 153.1 78.9 200 - 429 28.3k <56.7k 20% 15.8 63.1
20k <30k 56.1% 43.9% 2.2412% 254 142.6 111.6 430 - 664 56.7k <85k 15% 16.7 94.9
30k <40k 45.0% 55.0% 3.0487% 346 155.6 190.2 665 - 909 85k <113.3k 15% 28.5 161.7
40k <50k 34.0% 66.0% 3.0390% 345 117.2 227.6 910 - 1149 113.3k <141.7k 8% 18.2 209.3
50k <75k 20.0% 80.0% 5.9799% 678 135.7 542.7 1150 - 1764 141.7k <212.5k 5% 27.1 515.6
75k+ 13.9% 86.1% 4.2101% 478 66.4 411.2 1765+ 212.5k+ 5% 20.6 390.7
<10k 72.3% 27.7% 1.1393% 129 93.4 35.8 0 - 199 <28.3k 30% 10.7 25.1
10k <20k 60.0% 40.0% 1.4932% 169 101.6 67.8 200 - 429 28.3k <56.7k 30% 20.3 47.4
20k <30k 49.1% 50.9% 1.9288% 219 107.4 111.4 430 - 664 56.7k <85k 20% 22.3 89.1
30k <40k 41.0% 59.0% 2.3256% 264 108.2 155.7 665 - 909 85k <113.3k 15% 23.3 132.3
40k <50k 27.5% 72.5% 2.4044% 273 75.0 197.8 910 - 1149 113.3k <141.7k 15% 29.7 168.1
50k <75k 13.9% 86.1% 4.9540% 562 78.1 483.9 1150 - 1764 141.7k <212.5k 15% 72.6 411.3
75k+ 6.7% 93.3% 4.6152% 524 35.1 488.5 1765+ 212.5k+ 10% 48.9 439.7
Units Indicated Adjustment for HHs Without Mortgages
Dwelling Unit Needs Indicated by Tenure Choice and Affordable Cost ©
For Cascadia as of April 2000
Scenario Historical 1
Cohort Rent Range
(Note 1)
Price Range
(Note 1)
TenureUnits Indicated
by Housing Type
<25
25 <35
35 <45
45 <55
Home
<10k 53.6% 46.4% 0.9734% 110 59.2 51.2 0 - 199 <28.3k 70% 35.9 15.4
10k <20k 47.0% 53.0% 1.2637% 143 67.4 76.0 200 - 429 28.3k <56.7k 50% 38.0 38.0
20k <30k 40.0% 60.0% 1.3605% 154 61.7 92.6 430 - 664 56.7k <85k 35% 32.4 60.2
30k <40k 30.1% 69.9% 1.7089% 194 58.4 135.5 665 - 909 85k <113.3k 35% 47.4 88.1
40k <50k 11.0% 89.0% 1.3605% 154 17.0 137.4 910 - 1149 113.3k <141.7k 30% 41.2 96.2
50k <75k 8.0% 92.0% 2.6007% 295 23.6 271.4 1150 - 1764 141.7k <212.5k 30% 81.4 190.0
75k+ 5.0% 95.0% 2.3491% 267 13.3 253.2 1765+ 212.5k+ 15% 38.0 215.2
<10k 49.4% 50.6% 1.2264% 139 68.7 70.4 0 - 199 <28.3k 80% 56.3 14.1
10k <20k 32.8% 67.2% 2.0311% 230 75.6 154.8 200 - 429 28.3k <56.7k 60% 92.9 61.9
20k <30k 12.0% 88.0% 2.0919% 237 28.5 208.8 430 - 664 56.7k <85k 75% 156.6 52.2
30k <40k 10.0% 90.0% 1.4144% 160 16.0 144.4 665 - 909 85k <113.3k 60% 86.7 57.8
40k <50k 5.5% 94.5% 1.0259% 116 6.4 110.0 910 - 1149 113.3k <141.7k 55% 60.5 49.5
50k <75k 5.0% 95.0% 1.0840% 123 6.1 116.8 1150 - 1764 141.7k <212.5k 45% 52.6 64.3
75k+ 4.0% 96.0% 0.6111% 69 2.8 66.6 1765+ 212.5k+ 45% 30.0 36.6
<10k 56.9% 43.1% 2.1486% 244 138.7 105.1 0 - 199 <28.3k 80% 84.0 21.0
10k <20k 39.8% 60.2% 4.1313% 469 186.5 282.2 200 - 429 28.3k <56.7k 80% 225.7 56.4
20k <30k 22.0% 78.0% 2.4943% 283 62.3 220.7 430 - 664 56.7k <85k 85% 187.6 33.1
30k <40k 11.1% 88.9% 1.4490% 164 18.2 146.1 665 - 909 85k <113.3k 90% 131.5 14.6
40k <50k 9.7% 90.3% 0.7646% 87 8.4 78.3 910 - 1149 113.3k <141.7k 80% 62.7 15.7
50k <75k 8.1% 91.9% 0.8476% 96 7.8 88.4 1150 - 1764 141.7k <212.5k 80% 70.7 17.7
75k+ 7.2% 92.8% 0.6208% 70 5.1 65.4 1765+ 212.5k+ 70% 45.8 19.6
100.0% 11,345 4,046 7,299
Note 1-Income, Rent, and Price are stated in 1999 dollars. Rent and Price Ranges for each Income cohort represent the upper limits for affordable housing for that cohort, i.e., housing
that is non-cost burdened where no more than 30% of the household income is spent on housing.
Note 2 - Percent of owner households in this cohort estimated to live in a housing unit at a higher price point and can afford that unit due to no or low mortgage payments.
Label or data descriptor for data element
Model parameter such as the percentage of Households in this Age / Income cohort that will own or rent
The percentage of Households that are in this Age / Income cohort as of the above time period
A number produced by the Housing Needs Analysis template reflecting the data, assumptions, and estimates used in this scenario
Totals
75 +
55 <65
65 <75
Rent* # Units % of Units Cum % Price* # Units % of Units Cum %
0 - 199 652 15.4% 15.4% <28.3k 127 1.7% 1.7%
200 - 429 941 22.3% 37.7% 28.3k <56.7k 348 4.7% 6.4%
430 - 664 768 18.2% 55.9% 56.7k <85k 1,073 14.4% 20.8%
665 - 909 677 16.0% 72.0% 85k <113.3k 1,058 14.2% 35.0%
910 - 1149 480 11.4% 83.4% 113.3k <141.7k 1,094 14.7% 49.7%
1150 - 1764 510 12.1% 95.4% 141.7k <212.5k 1,844 24.8% 74.4%
1765+ 193 4.6% 100.0% 212.5k+ 1,904 25.6% 100.0% All Units
Totals 4,221 % of All 36.2% Totals 7,448 % of All 63.8% 11,669
* Housing Units Indicated is based on the 'Calculation of Dwelling Unit Needs Indicated by Tenure
Choice and Affordable Cost' template and incorporates the inclusion of a vacancy factor.
The numbers represent the units that could be afforded at that cost.
** Rent and Price Ranges are stated in 1999 dollars and are the upper limits for affordable housing
Rental Ownership
Housing Units Indicated by Tenure & Cost**
RentOut
Factor**Tenant
Vouchers***Needed
Units% of Units Cum % Price
Out Factor**
Needed Units
% of Units Cum %
0 - 199 0% 35 664 15.7% 15.7% <56.7k 0% 529 7.1% 7.1%
200 - 429 5% 30 903 21.4% 37.1% 56.7k <85k 5% 1,072 14.4% 21.5%
430 - 664 5% 25 838 19.8% 56.9% 85k <113.3k 5% 1,081 14.5% 36.0%
665 - 909 10% 755 17.9% 74.8% 113.3k <141.7k 7% 1,165 15.6% 51.7%
910 - 1149 25% 711 16.9% 91.7% 141.7k <212.5k 8% 1,982 26.6% 78.3%
1150 + 50% 351 8.3% 100.0% 212.5k+ 15% 1,619 21.7% 100.0%
Totals 90 4,221 % of All 36.2% 7,448 % of All 63.8%
* Housing Units Needed is based on the 'Housing Units Indicated by Tenure and Cost' table and incorporates an adjustment factor to reflect
that some households will choose to occupy a housing unit in a lower cost category than the one they could afford.
** The adjustment factor represents the percentage adjustments needed to reflect households who could afford that cost level but chose a
lower cost unit (Out Factor).
*** Estimated number of Section 8 Vouchers/Certificates or similar subsidies used to lower tenant paid rents to this price point
Label or data descriptor for data element
The percentage of Households that could afford a unit at this housing cost but chose a lower cost unit
A number produced by the Housing Needs Analysis template reflecting the data, assumptions, and estimates used in this scenario
OwnershipRental
Housing Units Needed by Tenure & Cost* ©
Cascadia Rental Units Needed in 2000
664
903838
755711
351
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
0 - 199 200 - 429 430 - 664 665 - 909 910 - 1149 1150 +
Monthly Rent
Un
its
Cascadia Rental Units Needed in 2000
642
886 917
760
855
462
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0 - 199 200 - 429 430 - 664 665 - 909 910 - 1149 1150 +
Monthly RentU
nit
s
Cascadia Ow nership Units Needed in 2000
529
1,072 1,081 1,165
1,982
1,619
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
<56.7k 56.7k <85k 85k <113.3k 113.3k<141.7k
141.7k<212.5k
212.5k+
Housing Cost
Un
its
Historical 1
RentSingle
Family Units
Manufactd Dwelling
Park Units
Duplex Units
Tri-Quadplex Units
5+ Multi-Family Units
Total Units % of UnitsCumulative
%
10 10 40 40 210 310
3.2% 3.2% 12.9% 12.9% 67.7% 100.0%
80 20 45 100 200 445
18.0% 4.5% 10.1% 22.5% 44.9% 100.0%
260 45 115 245 425 1,090
23.9% 4.1% 10.6% 22.5% 39.0% 100.0%
370 25 135 190 340 1,060
34.9% 2.4% 12.7% 17.9% 32.1% 100.0%
480 25 120 100 245 970
49.5% 2.6% 12.4% 10.3% 25.3% 100.0%
355 10 15 10 60 450
78.9% 2.2% 3.3% 2.2% 13.3% 100.0%
Totals 1,555 135 470 685 1,480 4,325 % of All 36.2%
Percentage 36.0% 3.1% 10.9% 15.8% 34.2% 100.0%
67.2%
22.4% 89.6%
10.4% 100.0%
7.2%
10.3% 17.5%
25.2% 42.7%
665 - 909
910 - 1149
1150 +
7.2%
24.5%
Scenario
For Cascadia as of April 2000
Rental
Current Inventory of Dwelling Units ©
0 - 199
200 - 429
430 - 664
Home
Price *Single
Family Units
Manufactd Dwelling
Park Units
Duplex Units
Tri-Quadplex Units
5+ Multi-Family Units
Total Units % of UnitsCumulative
%
350 265 20 20 10 665
52.6% 39.8% 3.0% 3.0% 1.5% 100.0%
410 210 30 25 50 725
56.6% 29.0% 4.1% 3.4% 6.9% 100.0%
830 180 20 20 60 1,110
74.8% 16.2% 1.8% 1.8% 5.4% 100.0%
1,220 110 5 5 10 1,350
90.4% 8.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.7% 100.0%
1,995 55 10 5 10 2,075
96.1% 2.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 100.0%
1,690 0 5 1,695
99.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 100.0%
Totals 6,495 820 85 75 145 7,620 % of All 63.8%
Percentage 85.2% 10.8% 1.1% 1.0% 1.9% 100.0%
Single Family Units
Manufactd Dwelling
Park Units
Duplex Units
Tri-Quadplex Units
5+ Multi-Family Units
Total Units**
Total Dwelling
Units**
Inventory Check
Totals 8,050 955 555 760 1,625 11,945 11,945 Correct
Percentage 67.4% 8.0% 4.6% 6.4% 13.6% 100.0%
27.2% 77.8%
22.2% 100.0%
141.7k <212.5k
212.5k+
8.7% 8.7%
9.5% 18.2%
14.6% 32.8%
17.7% 50.5%
<56.7k
56.7k <85k
85k <113.3k
113.3k <141.7k
Ownership
RentCurrent
Unmet Need / (Surplus)
% of Need Met
Cumulative Units
NeededPrice
Current Unmet Need
/ (Surplus)
% of Need Met
Cumulative Units
Needed
0 - 199 354 46.7% 354 <56.7k 179 66.2% 179
200 - 429 508 43.8% 861 56.7k <85k 7 99.4% 185
430 - 664 (252) 130.1% 609 85k <113.3k 31 97.1% 217
665 - 909 (305) 140.5% 304 113.3k <141.7k (340) 129.2% (123)
910 - 1149 (219) 130.7% 85 141.7k <212.5k (878) 144.3% (1,001)
1150 + (59) 116.7% 26 212.5k+ 699 56.8% (302)
Current Unmet Need = Needed Units (Housing Units Needed by Tenure & Cost template) - Current Units
% of Need Met = Percentage that Current Units are of Needed Units - goal is 100 %
Cumulative Units Needed measures relative need both by cumulative price point and by tenure
Rental Ownership
Current Unmet Housing Needs ©Housing Units Needed less Current Inventory
Income** Rent # Units % of Units Cum % # Units % of Units Cum %
<10k 0 - 199 76 35.5% 35.5% 156 34.7% 34.7%
10k <20k 200 - 429 77 35.9% 71.4% 190 42.2% 76.9%
20k <30k 430 - 664 30 14.0% 85.4% 64 14.3% 91.2%
30k <40k 665 - 909 17 7.9% 93.3% 20 4.3% 95.5%
40k <50k 910 - 1149 10 4.5% 97.8% 13 3.0% 98.5%
50k + 1150 + 5 2.2% 100.0% 7 1.5% 100.0%
Totals 215 % of All 32.3% 450 % of All 67.7% 665
Current Senior Rental Housing Units Needed by Cost* ©
Householder Age 75 +
For Cascadia as of April 2000Scenario Historical 1
Template 8
Householder Age 65 - 74
Home
Senior Rental Units Needed
76 77
3017
10 5
156
190
64
20 137
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0 - 199 200 - 429 430 - 664 665 - 909 910 - 1149 1150 +
Rent
Un
its
Householder 65-74 Householder 75 and older
Scenario Historical 1
HHs in Cohort as % of all
AI Cohort HHs
AgeIncome (Note 1)
Renter %
Homeowner %
17,067 Number Rental Owned
<10k 96.7% 3.3% 0.92% 157 151.5 5.2 0 - 199 <28.3k
10k <20k 88.5% 11.5% 1.41% 240 212.6 27.6 200 - 429 28.3k <56.7k
20k <30k 82.8% 17.2% 1.30% 221 183.1 38.0 430 - 664 56.7k <85k
30k <40k 77.3% 22.7% 0.89% 151 116.9 34.3 665 - 909 85k <113.3k
40k <50k 67.6% 32.4% 0.85% 145 98.3 47.1 910 - 1149 113.3k <141.7k
50k <75k 63.0% 37.0% 0.85% 145 91.1 53.5 1150 - 1764 141.7k <212.5k
75k+ 51.1% 48.9% 0.20% 34 17.2 16.5 1765+ 212.5k+
<10k 81.2% 18.8% 1.21% 206 167.7 38.8 0 - 199 <28.3k
10k <20k 68.2% 31.8% 2.06% 351 239.6 111.7 200 - 429 28.3k <56.7k
20k <30k 65.2% 34.8% 2.68% 457 297.7 158.9 430 - 664 56.7k <85k
30k <40k 57.5% 42.5% 3.10% 530 304.6 225.2 665 - 909 85k <113.3k
40k <50k 48.0% 52.0% 2.98% 508 243.9 264.2 910 - 1149 113.3k <141.7k
50k <75k 31.5% 68.5% 4.68% 799 251.8 547.5 1150 - 1764 141.7k <212.5k
75k+ 16.0% 84.0% 2.58% 441 70.5 370.1 1765+ 212.5k+
<10k 78.8% 21.2% 1.32% 226 178.1 47.9 0 - 199 <28.3k
10k <20k 66.0% 34.0% 2.04% 349 230.3 118.7 200 - 429 28.3k <56.7k
20k <30k 56.1% 43.9% 2.24% 383 214.6 167.9 430 - 664 56.7k <85k
30k <40k 45.0% 55.0% 3.05% 520 234.1 286.2 665 - 909 85k <113.3k
40k <50k 34.0% 66.0% 3.04% 519 176.4 342.3 910 - 1149 113.3k <141.7k
50k <75k 20.0% 80.0% 5.98% 1,021 204.1 816.5 1150 - 1764 141.7k <212.5k
75k+ 13.9% 86.1% 4.21% 719 99.9 618.7 1765+ 212.5k+
TenureUnits Indicated
by Housing Type
For Cascadia as of 2020
Rent Range
(Note 1)
CohortPrice Range
(Note 1)
Future Dwelling Unit Needs Indicated by Tenure Choice and Affordable Cost ©
<25
25 <35
35 <45
Home
National Average Sale Price Existing Single Family Home Index
Oregon Repeat
Purchase Housing
Price Index
Indexed Oregon
Personal Income
Indexed Oregon Wage & Salary
1980 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
1990 1.583 1.247 1.789 1.661
2002 2.750 2.764 2.830 2.728
1980-1990 Increase 58.3% 24.7% 78.9% 66.1%
1990-2002 Increase 73.7% 121.7% 58.2% 64.3%
1980-2002 Increase 175.0% 176.4% 183.0% 172.8%
Analysis of Oregon Housing Cost versus Income
Source - Economic Indicators used in Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast prepared by the Office of Economic Analysis, DAS
Scenario 1
Rent* # Units % of Units Cum % Price* # Units % of Units Cum %
0 - 199 899 13.2% 13.2% <28.3k 555 5.0% 5.0%
200 - 429 1,332 19.6% 32.8% 28.3k <56.7k 1,256 11.3% 16.2%
430 - 664 1,340 19.7% 52.5% 56.7k <85k 1,600 14.3% 30.5%
665 - 909 1,051 15.5% 68.0% 85k <113.3k 1,593 14.3% 44.8%
910 - 1149 788 11.6% 79.6% 113.3k <141.7k 1,366 12.2% 57.0%
1150 - 1764 814 12.0% 91.5% 141.7k <212.5k 2,191 19.6% 76.7%
1765+ 576 8.5% 100.0% 212.5k+ 2,605 23.3% 100.0% All Units
Totals 6,801 % of All 37.9% Totals 11,165 % of All 62.1% 17,966
Rental Ownership
Housing Units Indicated by Tenure Choice and at an Affordable Cost**
For Cascadia as of 2020
RentOut
Factor**Tenant
Vouchers***Needed
Units% of Units Cum % Price
Out Factor**
Needed Units
% of Units Cum %
0 - 199 0% 45 1,139 17.6% 17.6% <56.7k 0% 1,733 15.5% 15.5%
200 - 429 5% 40 1,356 21.0% 38.6% 56.7k <85k 5% 1,381 12.3% 27.8%
430 - 664 5% 40 1,254 19.4% 57.9% 85k <113.3k 5% 1,577 14.1% 41.9%
665 - 909 10% 1,182 18.3% 76.2% 113.3k <141.7k 7% 1,694 15.1% 57.0%
910 - 1149 25% 1,047 16.2% 92.4% 141.7k <212.5k 8% 2,834 25.3% 82.3%
1150 + 50% 493 7.6% 100.0% 212.5k+ 15% 1,989 17.7% 100.0%
Totals 6,472 % of All 36.6% Totals 11,208 % of All 63.4%
* Housing Units Needed is based on the 'Housing Units Indicated by Tenure and Cost' table and incorporates an adjustment factor
to reflect that some households will choose to occupy a housing unit in a lower cost category than the one they could afford.
** The adjustment factor represents the percentage adjustments needed to reflect households who could afford that cost level but
chose a lower cost unit (Out Factor).
*** Estimated number of Section 8 Vouchers/Certificates or similar subsidies used to lower tenant paid rents to this price point
Rental Ownership
Future Housing Units Needed by Tenure & Cost* ©
Scenario Historical 1
RentNeeded
Units
Single Family Units
Manufactd Dwelling
Park Units
Duplex Units
Tri-Quadplex
Units
5+ Multi-Family Units
Total Units
3.0% 3.0% 13.0% 13.0% 68.0% 100.0%
33 33 145 145 757 1,114
15.0% 5.0% 10.0% 20.0% 50.0% 100.0%
197 66 131 263 657 1,313
32.0% 5.0% 10.0% 18.0% 35.0% 100.0%
404 63 126 227 442 1,262
37.0% 3.0% 12.0% 18.0% 30.0% 100.0%
420 34 136 205 341 1,136
51.0% 3.0% 11.0% 10.0% 25.0% 100.0%
540 32 116 106 265 1,059
80.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 13.0% 100.0%
418 10 16 10 68 523
Totals 6,407 2,013 239 671 956 2,529 6,407
31.4% 3.7% 10.5% 14.9% 39.5% 100.0%
1,136
1,059
523
200 - 429
430 - 664
1150 +
665 - 909
910 - 1149
0 - 199 1,114
1,313
1,262
Percentage
Future Housing Units Planned by Housing Type ©
For Cascadia as of 2020
Rental
Existing Units plus New Units Added
Home
PriceNeeded
Units
Single Family Units
Manufactd Dwelling
Park Units
Duplex Units
Tri-Quadplex
Units
5+ Multi-Family Units
Total Units
50.0% 40.0% 3.0% 3.0% 4.0% 100.0%
887 709 53 53 71 1,773
58.0% 29.0% 4.0% 4.0% 5.0% 100.0%
808 404 56 56 70 1,393
75.0% 18.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 100.0%
1,145 275 31 31 46 1,527
88.0% 9.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 100.0%
1,454 149 17 17 17 1,652
94.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 100.0%
2,950 94 31 31 31 3,138
96.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 100.0%
1,992 21 21 21 21 2,075
Totals 11,558 9,236 1,652 208 208 255 11,558
79.9% 14.3% 1.8% 1.8% 2.2% 100.0%
Needed Units
Single Family Units
Manufactd Dwelling
Park Units
Duplex Units
Tri-Quadplex
Units
5+ Multi-Family Units
Total Units
Totals 17,966 11,249 1,890 879 1,164 2,784 17,966
62.6% 10.5% 4.9% 6.5% 15.5% 100.0%
113.3k <141.7k
141.7k <212.5k
212.5k+
1,773
1,393
1,527
1,652
3,138
2,075
85k <113.3k
<56.7k
56.7k <85k
Total Rental and Ownership Units
% of Total Units
Percentage
Ownership
New Housing Needs
Cascadia New Rental Units Needed by 2020
955
1253
1078
783 796
335
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0 - 199 200 - 429 430 - 664 665 - 909 910 - 1149 1150 +
Monthly Rent - 1999 Dollars
Un
its
Cascadia New Ow nership Units Needed by 2020
1491
1069984
265
596674
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
<56.7k 56.7k <85k 85k <113.3k 113.3k<141.7k
141.7k<212.5k
212.5k+
Housing Cost - 1999 Dollars
Un
its
Scenario Historical 1
RentNeeded
UnitsSingle
Family Units
Manufactd Dwelling
Park UnitsDuplex Units
Tri-Quadplex
Units
5+ Multi-Family Units
Total Units
0 - 199 804 23 23 105 105 547 804
200 - 429 868 117 46 86 163 457 868
430 - 664 172 144 18 11 (18) 17 172
665 - 909 76 50 9 1 15 1 76
910 - 1149 89 60 7 (4) 6 20 89
1150 + 73 63 0 1 0 8 73
Totals 2,082 458 104 201 271 1,049 2,082
22.0% 5.0% 9.6% 13.0% 50.4% 100.0%Percentage
New Housing Units Needed by Housing Type ©
For Cascadia as of 2020
New Rental Units Needed
Home
PriceNeeded
UnitsSingle
Family Units
Manufactd Dwelling
Park UnitsDuplex Units
Tri-Quadplex
Units
5+ Multi-Family Units
Total Units
<56.7k 1,108 537 444 33 33 61 1,108
56.7k <85k 668 398 194 26 31 20 668
85k <113.3k 417 315 95 11 11 (14) 417
113.3k <141.7k 302 234 39 12 12 7 302
141.7k <212.5k 1,063 955 39 21 26 21 1,063
212.5k+ 380 302 21 21 21 16 380
Totals 3,938 2,741 832 123 133 110 3,938
69.6% 21.1% 3.1% 3.4% 2.8% 100.0%
Needed Units
Single Family Units
Manufactd Dwelling
Park UnitsDuplex Units
Tri-Quadplex
Units
5+ Multi-Family Units
Total Units
Totals 6,021 3,199 935 324 404 1,159 6,021
53.1% 15.5% 5.4% 6.7% 19.3% 100.0%
New Ownership Units Needed
Total New Rental and Ownership Units
% of Total Units
Percentage
Cascadia New Rental Units Needed by 2020
65
190
140
90
260
185
1030
15 5 0 5
6090
3515 10 0
60
160
5535 25 15
460
418
8 3
51 40
050
100150
200250300
350400
450500
0 - 199 200 - 429 430 - 664 665 - 909 910 - 1149 1150 +
Monthly Rent (1999 $)
Single Family Units Manufactd Dwelling Park Units
Duplex Units Tri-Quadplex Units
5+ Multi-Family Units
Cascadia New Rental Units Needed by 2020
65
190
140
90
260
185
1030
15 5 0 5
6090
3515 10 0
60
160
5535 25 15
460
418
8 3
51 40
050
100150
200250300
350400
450500
0 - 199 200 - 429 430 - 664 665 - 909 910 - 1149 1150 +
Monthly Rent (1999 $)
Single Family Units Manufactd Dwelling Park Units
Duplex Units Tri-Quadplex Units
5+ Multi-Family Units
Cascadia New Ownership Units Needed by 2020
156 145
284
25
366
454
8569
50
025
10
220
11580
0 5 15
240
130
75
200
20
425
240
85
15
5575
050
100150200250300350400450500
<56.7k 56.7k <85k 85k <113.3k 113.3k<141.7k
141.7k<212.5k
212.5k+
Price (1999 $)
Single Family Units Manufactd Dwelling Park Units
Duplex Units Tri-Quadplex Units
5+ Multi-Family Units
Local Code
Planned Density
RS1 3.5
RS2 5
RS3 6.5
RM1 12
RM2 16
RM3 24
MDP 7.5
CO/CR 5
OtherNon-residential zones such as Industrial or Commercial with existing units
Planned Housing Density by Local Zoning District ©
Local Zoning District Description
Single family large lot
Single family 6000 Sq ft lot min
Single family 4500 Sq ft lot min
Mulifamily low density
Multifamily
Multifamily high density
Manufactured Dwelling Park
Commercial Office/Retail allowing mixed uses
Existing RS1 RS2 RS3 RM1 RM2 RM3 MDP CO/CR Other Total
Single Family Units 8,855 1,830 4,035 2,760 85 45 25 5 45 25 8,855
Manufactured Dwelling Park Units
490 80 90 320 490
Duplex Units 680 150 210 114 134 48 24 680
Tri-Quadplex Units 735 165 240 330 735
5+ Multi-Family Units
1,185 95 265 825 1,185
Total Units 11,945 1,980 4,245 2,874 559 688 1,204 325 45 25 11,945
20.7% 45.6% 31.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 100%
16.3% 18.4% 65.3% 100%
22.1% 30.9% 16.8% 19.7% 7.1% 3.5% 100%
22.4% 32.7% 44.9% 100%
8.0% 22.4% 69.6% 100%
16.6% 35.5% 24.1% 4.7% 5.8% 10.1% 2.7% 0.4% 0.2% 100%
% Tri-Quadplex Units
% 5+ Multi-Family Units
Housing Inventory by Land Use Type
% Total Units
Percent of Existing Inventory by Land Use Type
% Single Family Units
% Manufactured Dwelling Park Units
% Duplex Units
Single Family Units
All Units % in RS1 % in RS2 % in RS3 % in RM1 % in RM2 % in RM3 % in MDP% in
CO/CROther Total %
Lower Priced1 1,821 10.0% 40.0% 47.5% 1.0% 0.5% 1.0% 100.0%
Mid Priced2 563 20.0% 48.5% 30.0% 1.0% 0.5% 100.0%
Higher Priced3 1,143 40.0% 44.0% 15.0% 1.0% 100.0%
Total 3,527 21.3% 42.7% 34.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 100.0%
20.7% 45.6% 31.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 100.0%
MDP Units All Units % in RS1 % in RS2 % in RS3 % in RM1 % in RM2 % in RM3 % in MDP% in
CO/CROther Total %
Lower Priced1 162 10% 15% 75% 100.0%
Mid Priced2 123 10% 15% 75% 100.0%
Higher Priced3 52 50% 40% 10% 100.0%
Total 337 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.2% 18.9% 0.0% 64.9% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
16.3% 18.4% 65.3% 100.0%
Duplex Units All Units % in RS1 % in RS2 % in RS3 % in RM1 % in RM2 % in RM3 % in MDP% in
CO/CROther Total %
Lower Priced1 323 20% 30% 20% 20% 6% 4% 100.0%
Mid Priced2 54 30% 50% 10% 10% 100.0%
Higher Priced3 23 50% 25% 5% 15% 5% 100.0%
Total 401 23.1% 32.4% 17.5% 17.8% 5.7% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
22.1% 30.9% 16.8% 19.7% 7.1% 3.5% 100.0%
Projected Distribution of New Housing by Land Use Type ©
Existing Distribution
Existing Distribution
Existing Distribution
RS1 RS2 RS3 RM1 RM2 RM3 MDP CO/CR Other Total
Single Family Units 752 1,504 1,205 35 9 0 0 21 0 3,527
Manufactured Dwelling Park Units
0 0 0 55 64 0 218 0 0 337
Duplex Units 93 130 70 71 23 14 0 0 0 401
Tri-Quadplex Units 0 0 0 93 137 202 0 0 0 432
5+ Multi-Family Units
0 0 0 91 240 707 0 0 0 1,038
Total Units Needed 844 1,634 1,276 345 473 923 218 21 0 5,735
Projected New Housing Units by Land Use Type ©
RS1 RS2 RS3 RM1 RM2 RM3 MDP CO/CR Other Total
Current UGB Acres 654.0 1,020.0 545.5 75.6 64.0 72.6 48.5 10.4 2,490.6
Acres in Use 577.8 866.0 486.5 52.7 47.0 51.1 39.9 10.4 2,131.4
Constrained Acres 3.5 16.2 1.9 0.0 3.2 0.8 1.6 0.0 27.2
Available Acres 72.7 137.8 57.1 22.9 13.8 20.7 7.0 0.0 0.0 332.0
Current Acres % 26.3% 41.0% 21.9% 3.0% 2.6% 2.9% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 100.0%
Acres in Use % 27.1% 40.6% 22.8% 2.5% 2.2% 2.4% 1.9% 0.5% 0.0% 100.0%
Available Acres % 21.9% 41.5% 17.2% 6.9% 4.2% 6.2% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Existing Units per Acres in Use
3.43 4.90 5.91 10.61 14.64 23.56 8.15 4.33 5.60
RS1 RS2 RS3 RM1 RM2 RM3 MDP CO/CR Other Total
Acres Needed 241.2 326.9 196.2 28.7 29.5 38.5 29.1 4.2 0.0 894.4
New Acres Needed 168.5 189.1 139.1 5.8 15.7 17.8 22.1 4.2 0.0 562.4
Land Needed by Land Use Type
Buildable Lands Inventory for Housing
Additional Acres Needed in UGB by Land Use Type
168.5
189.1
139.1
5.815.7 17.8 22.1
4.2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
RS1 RS2 RS3 RM1 RM2 RM3 MDP CO/CR
Ac
res