Oklahoma Drought Response Using Spreadsheet Tools
description
Transcript of Oklahoma Drought Response Using Spreadsheet Tools
Oklahoma Drought Response Using Spreadsheet Tools
Roger SahsExtension Assistant, Oklahoma State University
Damona DoyeSarkeys Distinguished Professor and Regents Professor, Oklahoma State University
Minimum temperature: -31°F, Nowata, 2/10/11 Number of days with temperature 100°F or higher:
101 days, Grandfield Warmest summer (June-August): 86.9°F, Statewide
average, U.S. record! 24-hour snowfall: 27 inches, Spavinaw, 11 PM , 2/8/11 to
11 PM 2/9/11 Wind gust: 151 mph, El Reno, 5/24/11 Hail stone diameter: 6.0 inches, 2 miles north of Gotebo,
5/23/11 Lowest annual total precipitation: 6.2 inches, Hooker
2011: A Record Breaking Year
U.S. Drought MonitorSeptember 13, 2011
OSU Ag Econ Drought Response
Numerous meetings around the state…. Extension educator training Lender workshops Producer meetingsTopics covered…. Market outlook Reinvesting in the beef industry Risk management toolsEconomic Impacts $1.7 Billion Direct Losses from Ag Sector
Integrated Farm Financial Statements (IFFS)agecon.okstate.edu/iffs/
Enterprise budget software agecon.okstate.edu/budgets/ beefextension.com, Cow/calf, Calculators or Drought
Resources.◦Early weaning decision aid◦Repurchase decision tool◦Sell cows now or later◦Cow bid price estimate calculator
Decision Support Tools
Keep and Feed vs Sell and Buy Back
Cost per Day to Maintain Cow ($)Days till
repurchase$2.50 $3.00 $3.50
Jan 2012 122 $318 $379 $440May 2012 243 $634 $756 $877Aug. 2012 335 $874 $1,042 $1,209
Price Increase That Can be Paid
Assumes 5% time value of money
Example: Your maintenance cost per day is $3 and you think May 1 is a reasonable repurchase target date. If you think the sell–buyback spread will be less than $756, you should sell and buyback.
What’s Next? More rain, we hope!