OKLAHOMA CITY - colliersmultifamilyeast.com€¦ · 2013 2014 2015 Market National 2016F 2017F...
6
Accelerating success. Research & Forecast Report OKLAHOMA CITY Q3 2016 | Multifamily RECENT SALES Source: AXIOMetrics. RCA, CoStar Market Survey Results and Forecasts Sequential Month Annual 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 Sep-16 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F Effective Rent Per Unit $720 $716 $723 $721 $712 $714 $721 $719 $732 $754 $781 $805 Per Sq. Ft $0.84 $0.83 $0.84 $0.84 $0.83 $0.83 $0.84 $0.84 $0.85 $0.88 $0.91 $0.94 Effective Rent Growth - Annually 0.0% -0.6% 0.2% -0.4% -0.9% 1.4% 1.0% -0.4% 1.9% 3.0% 3.6% 3.0% Effective Rent Growth - Quarterly -0.5% -0.5% 1.0% -0.4% Occupancy Rate 92.8% 92.6% 92.6% 92.1% 91.5% 95.1% 93.9% 92.4% 93.5% 94.5% 95.0% 94.5% Occupancy Change - Annually -2.0% -1.8% -2.1% -2.1% -2.4% -1.0% -1.3% -1.6% 1.1% 1.1% 0.5% -0.6% Occupancy Change - Quarterly -1.3% -0.3% 0.0% -0.6% Economic Concessions Concession Value $-9.26 $-11.53 $-11.98 $-12.20 $-14.00 $-9.43 $-8.13 As a % of Asking Rent -1.3% -1.6% -1.7% -1.7% -1.9% -1.3% -1.1% Date Property Name Address City Units Year Built Price in $ $/Units Oct-16 Adams Crossing 2400 NW 39th St Oklahoma City 151 1966 / 2003 4,736,000 31,364 Sep-16 Wedgewood Village 4101 Northwest Expy Oklahoma City 302 1974 / 2014 20,500,000 67,881 Sep-16 Forest Oaks on Purdue 5700 NW 23rd St Oklahoma City 258 1970 / 2006 6,000,000 23,256 Sep-16 Crown Ridge 3751 Eagle Cliff Dr Norman 176 2005 11,560,000 65,682 Aug-16 Rebecca Lane 1203 Rebecca Ln Norman 131 1975 5,750,000 43,893 Jul-16 Chaparral Townhomes 1301 N Stiles Ave Oklahoma City 136 1984 11,500,000 84,559 Jul-16 Western Oaks 7402 NW 23rd St Bethany 174 1967 4,650,000 26,724 Jul-16 35 West 769 SW 19th St Oklahoma City 314 2015 40,000,000 127,389 Jun-16 Gardens at Reding 3708 S Douglas Ave Oklahoma City 157 1985 5,417,500 34,506 Jun-16 University House Norman 333 E Brooks St Norman 388 1964 4,287,012 11,049 Jun-16 Belle Isle 4861 N Blackwelder Oklahoma City 96 1974 / 2003 3,800,000 39,583 Jun-16 Huntington Place 1401 N Midwest Blvd Oklahoma City 288 1974 9,900,000 34,375 May-16 Residence at North Penn 14520 N Pennsylvania Ave Oklahoma City 276 2011 28,300,000 102,536 May-16 Country Village 301 Hal Muldrow Dr Norman 100 1972 3,600,000 36,000
Transcript of OKLAHOMA CITY - colliersmultifamilyeast.com€¦ · 2013 2014 2015 Market National 2016F 2017F...
Accelerating success.
Research & Forecast Report
OKLAHOMA CITYQ3 2016 | Multifamily
RECENT SALES
Source: AXIOMetrics. RCA, CoStar
Market Survey Results and ForecastsSequential Month Annual
4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 Sep-16 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F
Effective Rent Per Unit $720 $716 $723 $721 $712 $714 $721 $719 $732 $754 $781 $805
Per Sq. Ft $0.84 $0.83 $0.84 $0.84 $0.83 $0.83 $0.84 $0.84 $0.85 $0.88 $0.91 $0.94
Effective Rent Growth - Annually 0.0% -0.6% 0.2% -0.4% -0.9% 1.4% 1.0% -0.4% 1.9% 3.0% 3.6% 3.0%
Effective Rent Growth - Quarterly -0.5% -0.5% 1.0% -0.4%
Occupancy Rate 92.8% 92.6% 92.6% 92.1% 91.5% 95.1% 93.9% 92.4% 93.5% 94.5% 95.0% 94.5%
Occupancy Change - Annually -2.0% -1.8% -2.1% -2.1% -2.4% -1.0% -1.3% -1.6% 1.1% 1.1% 0.5% -0.6%
Occupancy Change - Quarterly -1.3% -0.3% 0.0% -0.6%
Economic Concessions Concession Value $-9.26 $-11.53 $-11.98 $-12.20 $-14.00 $-9.43 $-8.13
As a % of Asking Rent -1.3% -1.6% -1.7% -1.7% -1.9% -1.3% -1.1%
Date Property Name Address City Units Year Built Price in $ $/Units
Oct-16 Adams Crossing 2400 NW 39th St Oklahoma City 151 1966 / 2003 4,736,000 31,364
Sep-16 Wedgewood Village 4101 Northwest Expy Oklahoma City 302 1974 / 2014 20,500,000 67,881
Sep-16 Forest Oaks on Purdue 5700 NW 23rd St Oklahoma City 258 1970 / 2006 6,000,000 23,256
Sep-16 Crown Ridge 3751 Eagle Cliff Dr Norman 176 2005 11,560,000 65,682
Aug-16 Rebecca Lane 1203 Rebecca Ln Norman 131 1975 5,750,000 43,893
Jul-16 Chaparral Townhomes 1301 N Stiles Ave Oklahoma City 136 1984 11,500,000 84,559
Jul-16 Western Oaks 7402 NW 23rd St Bethany 174 1967 4,650,000 26,724
Jul-16 35 West 769 SW 19th St Oklahoma City 314 2015 40,000,000 127,389
Jun-16 Gardens at Reding 3708 S Douglas Ave Oklahoma City 157 1985 5,417,500 34,506
Jun-16 University House Norman 333 E Brooks St Norman 388 1964 4,287,012 11,049
Jun-16 Belle Isle 4861 N Blackwelder Oklahoma City 96 1974 / 2003 3,800,000 39,583
Jun-16 Huntington Place 1401 N Midwest Blvd Oklahoma City 288 1974 9,900,000 34,375
May-16 Residence at North Penn 14520 N Pennsylvania Ave Oklahoma City 276 2011 28,300,000 102,536
May-16 Country Village 301 Hal Muldrow Dr Norman 100 1972 3,600,000 36,000
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 2www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
SUPPLY AND DEMANDAccording to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job growth in Oklahoma City, OK Metro Area was 0.3% in August 2016, reflecting 1,600 jobs added during a 12-month period.
Axiometrics forecasts Oklahoma City, OK Metro Area’s job growth to be 1.0% in 2017, with 6,054 jobs added. Job growth is expected to average 1.9% from 2018 to 2020, with an average of 12,455 jobs added each year.
On the supply side, permits for 1,428 multifamily units were issued in the 12 months ending in August 2016, up 1,142 units from the prior year’s sum. In terms of total residential housing, 6,894 units were permitted in the 12 months ending August 2016, an increase of 869 units from the prior year’s total.
Multifamily Absorption and Supply
Annual 3Q16 Annual Forecast
2013 2014 2015 Market National 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F
Total Units Absorbed (101) 957 344 1,691 274,353 2,237 2,366 2,266 1,015 81
New Supply 1,216 1,435 2,107 2,426 367,859 2,142 1,503 1,362 784 858
Inventory Growth 1.1% 1.7% 2.0% 2.9% 1.4% 2.9% 1.8% 1.6% 1.1% 1.0%
Market Employment and Permitting
Annual August-16 Annual Forecast
2013 2014 2015 Market National 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F
Employment (000s) 607.9 619.6 629.9 629.4 144,424.0 634.2 640.3 651.0 665.2 677.6
Job Gain (000s) 13.8 11.6 10.3 1.6 2,451.0 4.3 6.1 10.7 14.3 12.4
Job Growth (%) 2.3% 1.9% 1.7% 0.3% 1.7% 0.7% 1.0% 1.7% 2.2% 1.9%
Total Residential Permitting 7,509 7,846 6,025 6,074 1,056,185 7,165 6,676 6,023 6,807 7,303
Relative Change 14.2% 4.5% -23.2% -9.5% 2.3% 18.9% -6.8% -9.8% 13.0% 7.3%
Single Family Units Permitted 6,363 5,935 5,539 4,784 658,713
Relative Change 16.2% -6.7% -6.7% -10.1% 9.1%
Multifamily Units Permitted 1,014 1,689 286 1,073 368,231
Relative Change 3.7% 66.6% -83.1% -11.0% -8.2%
Multifamily as a % of Total 13.5% 21.5% 4.7% 17.7% 34.9%
Demand/Supply Ratio Job Gain / Total Residential Units Permitted 2.1 1.6 1.3 0.2 2.4 0.7 0.8 1.6 2.4 1.8
Job Gain / Single Family Units Permitted 2.5 1.8 1.7 0.3 4.1
Job Gain / Multifamily Units Permitted 14.1 11.5 6.1 1.3 6.1
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 3www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
IDENTIFIED SUPPLYAs of October 10, 2016, Axiometrics has identified 2,052 apartment units scheduled for delivery in 2016, of which, 1,593 have been delivered. As a comparison, there were 1,750 apartment units delivered in 2015. Properties delivered to the market in the last 12 months have achieved an average asking rent of $1,141 per unit, or $1.25 per square foot. Effective rent has averaged $1,102, or $1.21 per square foot, resulting in an average concession value of $-38.90. As a comparison, existing properties in the market had an average asking rent of $733 per unit ($0.85 per square foot) and an average effective rent of $721 per unit, or $0.84 per square foot, in 3Q16. Concessions for existing properties averaged $-12.20.
Submarket Delivery Schedule
Pipeline Delivery Schedule Pipeline Lease Up Trend
Units Absorbed Asking Rent Effective Rent
Top Submarkets 2014 2015 2016 Total Totals PPM Per Unit PSF Per Unit PSF East Central Oklahoma City 211 274 863 1,348 285 8 $1,402 $1.69 $1,382 $1.66
Norman 524 524 61 6 $953 $1.04 $928 $1.02
Northeast Oklahoma City 458 70 490 1,018 308 15 $1,255 $1.16 $1,158 $1.07
Northwest Oklahoma City 468 191 31 690 108 9 $1,003 $1.04 $944 $0.98
South Oklahoma City 518 1,215 144 1,877 440 9 $927 $1.00 $902 $0.98
Other 141 141 1,202 10 $1,138 $1.24 $1,097 $1.20
Oklahoma City, OK 1,796 1,750 2,052 5,598*Based on 2016 deliveries *Trend based on a trailing 12 month period
“We were extremely pleased with the East Region team and its ability to attract an incredible amount of interest in our 3 assets.
The number of offers received and the end results exceeded our expectations. They have a talented group who was a pleasure to
work with. Their performance stands out against any of the groups we work with nationally.”
Nels Billsten, Vice President | CORE Realty Holding Management
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 4www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
PIPELINE# Name Status Owner Address Market Units1 Lift Lease Up Milhaus 801 NW 10th St Downtown Oklahoma City 3292 Tapestry at Quail Springs Lease Up Crp/av Venture 2 Okc LLC 14201 N Kentucky Ave Outer Northwest Oklahoma 1403 Cross Timber Apartments Lease Up Carlsbad Management Group, LLC 10700 S May Lakeridge Run 1504 Springs at May Lakes Lease Up Continental Properties Co, Inc. 9900 S May Ave Southridge/Shadowlake 3045 The Greens at Lake Overholser Lease Up Lake Villa LLC 9900 W Ok-66 Southwest Oklahoma City 3366 Metropolitan Apartments Lease Up Bomasada Group, Inc. 800 N Oklahoma Ave Downtown Oklahoma City 3247 The Reserve At Quail North Lease Up Lincoln Property Company 2600 Watermark Blvd Outer Northwest Oklahoma 2398 Anatole at Norman Lease Up NE Development 3700 West Tecumseh Rd Outer Norman 2309 Maywood Apartments Phase II Under Construction NE Development 6 NE 4th St Downtown Oklahoma City 16010 Boulevard at Lakeside Phase II Under Construction NE Development 1300 SE 15th St Outer Midwest City 13611 Callaway House Under Construction American Campus Comm., Inc. 555 E Brooks St Outer Norman 38812 Page Woodson School Apts Under Construction Colony Partners Inc 600 N High Ave John F Kennedy 13613 Chisholm Creek Apartments Under Construction CN Chisholm Creek, LP N Blackwelder & W Memoria
DrOuter Northwest Oklahoma 287
14 Legacy Trails Apartments - P II Under Construction Carlsbad Management Group, LLC 2501 Pendleton Dr Outer Norman 17615 Mission Point Apartments P II Under Construction Case & Associates 2900 S Service Rd Outer Norman 26216 J Marshall Square - Phase II Under Construction Gardner Tanenbaum Holdings 9017 N University Ave Outer Central Oklahoma City 20017 Steelyard Apartments Under Construction Cornerstone Development 505 E Sheridan Ave Downtown Oklahoma City 25018 100 Charlie Christian Ave Proposed Champion Hotels 100 Charlie Christian Ave Downtown Oklahoma City 12519 Wilshire Point Proposed Blackstone Commercial Property
AdvisorsClassen Dr Outer Northeast Oklahoma 150
20 Times Square Proposed Okc Urban Renewal Authority 400 NE K Gaylord Blvd Downtown Oklahoma City 32721 The Residences Proposed Hall Capital 903 W Sheridan Ave Downtown Oklahoma City 345
Total Units 4,994
Source: CoStar
1
5
6
3
7
4
8
9
13
10
14
11
15
12
16
1718
19
2021
Key
Lease-Up
Under Construction
Proposed
2
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 5www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
WHO WE AREOne of the largest and most
experienced teams of multifamily
specialists in the industry
Units sold since 2011
30,000MORE THAN
Group gross transaction value in since 2011
$2.0B
Dedicated Multifamily Professionals & Advisors
50MORE THAN
Expansive geographic footprint
20COVERING OVER
STATES
WE CAN HELPAs an investor in multifamily properties, you need a firm that provides experience, broad reach and the ability to market an asset no matter how challenging the economic environment. You need a team that specializes in your market you need The East Region Multifamily Advisory Group.
Colliers International has one of the largest and most experienced teams in the industry, strategically located in key markets throughout North America. Our combination of market dominance, expertise, and singular focus, make us uniquely successful in helping our clients achieve their disposition objectives.
How are we able to bring together the skills and tools necessary to complete challenging assignments? Our East Region Multifamily Advisory Group is connected by purpose and focus. Our team is dedicated to sharing information on market opportunities, capital sources and buyers/sellers to achieve the best results for our clients.
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 6www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
To learn more, scan this with a QR code reader or visit:
AT YOUR SERVICE
Gabe TovarASSOCIATE | EAST REGION
[email protected] +1 816 556 1161
Will MathewsPRINCIPAL | EAST REGION
INSTITUTIONAL CLIENT GROUP
[email protected] +1 404 877 9285
Brooks ColquittASSOCIATE | EAST REGION
[email protected] +1 404 978 2337
Craig BrownASSOCIATE | EAST REGION
[email protected] +1 404 978 2336
Bob Galamba, CCIM, SIOR
SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT | EAST REGION
[email protected] +1 816 556 1152
