TEAM MEMBERS:•SYED ALI NAQI

•SADAF MANSOOR

•QURAT-UL-AIN RAUF

•ANUM SAFDAR

•ANILA MAHUMMED

•SYED USMAN WAZIR

“Deal with the reality or the reality will deal with you…”

"Unless we make decisions now our electricity will start to run out within five years." Professor Ian Fells, World Energy Council

"This is a very, very difficult problem to solve, and we just have never attempted to solve a problem of this magnitude in this world ever before."Kelvin Beer, Gas Strategist, Deloitte Petroleum Services

"Britain's homes could be without light and heat for long periods by 2020”

A vision of Britain in 2020, Guardian, 1 July 2003

Energy flows from many sources, exists in a variety of interchangeable forms, and drives all systems

Energy is fundamental to the quality of our lives

Energy is a key ingredient in all sectors of modern economies

The US economy had the energy bill of 1 trillion in year 2007

Pakistan had the oil import bill of $3.5 billion in the first 7 months of 2006. 65% greater than the last year

An energy crisis is any great bottleneck (or price rise) in the supply of energy resources to an economy

It usually refers to the shortage of oil and additionally to electricity or other natural resources.

a situation marked by disruption in oil supplies resulting in increases energy prices that threatens economic and national security

Pre 1890 Industrial revolution-very low energy needs

Energy Crisis-A Historic Overview

1973 Oil Crisis

Oil export embargo by Arab states

The price of oil quadrupled by 1974 to nearly US$12 per barrel

A National Maximum Speed Limit of 55 mph

Japan shifted its focus from oil intensive industries to electronics

Pro Arab approach of Western Europe and Japanese Governments

Introduction of medium size hatchbacks-Fiat Ritmo, Ford Escort MK3, Renault 14, Volkswagen Golf

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9f/Potlatch_gas.jpg

1979 Oil Crisis

Occurred in US due to Iranian Revolution

Oil Price increased to $39.5 /barrel from $15.85

Long lines at gas stations-an estimated 150, 000 barrels/day

Solar panel of White House

Coupons for gasoline rationing

Poor sales of Sedans and RWD vehicles

1990 spike in the prices of the oil-Gulf War

Resulted due to the 1st Gulf War

Mild than the previous crisis

OPEC increased the output to tackle crisis

Oil price hit record $42 per barrel

The 2000-2001 California electricity crisis

Resulted due to the manipulation by electricity producers Enron & Reliant energy

Combination of extremely high prices and rolling blackouts

Downsizing by the retail companies

State intervened into the deregulated energy market to save the consumer

Energy Crisis-2004-2007, “The mother of all crisis”

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/2/28/Oil_Prices_Short_Term.png

Peak Oil!!

Peak Oil-the point or timeframe at which the maximum global petroleum production rate is reached

Oil production follows a bell curve

Plentiful oil at the peak of the curve, scarce and expensive at the down

Peak- the point of 50% endowment of oil

2005- the year of peak oil

Worldwide Oil Production in 2030 would be same as in 1980 BUT not the consumption

the issue is not of “running out” but of “not having enough”

Shortfall in oil supply of 10% is enough to shatter an oil dependent economy

The coming shocks in oil demand/supply won’t be short-lived

Peak Oil applies globally but timings differ

Country Year of Peak Oil

Country Year of Peak Oil

Australia 2004 Libya 1970

Canada 1973 Mexico 2003

China 2005 New Zealand 1997

France 1988 Nigeria 1979

Germany 1966 Norway 2000

India 1997 Russia 1987

Austria 2001 Trinidad 1981

Iran 1974 Venezuela 1970

Indonesia 1993 UK 1990

Japan 1932 USA 1970

Country Oil Peak Year

Iraq 2018

Kuwait 2013

Saudi Arabia 2014

Implications of Energy Crisis & Peak Oil on World

The effect of decrease in production can be devastating

3% decline in oil production predicted by Dick Cheney, CEO of Halliburton

Andrew Gould, CEO Schlumberger, predicted the decline of 8% a year

1973- the production drop of 5% caused the price to soar by 400%

An overall decline of 50% is expected over the next 9 years

Above given two points have a message for all of us….THINK!!!!!!!!

Are we heading towards a

“post industrial stone age”…???

"Big deal. If gas prices get high, I’ll just  drive less. Why should I give a damn?“

petrochemicals are key components to much more than just the gas in your car

The construction of a Camry at TOYOTA consumes 20 barrel of oil, an amount twice to its weight

Average car consumes during its construction 10% of the energy used during its lifetime

“All forms of modern technologies are not petroleum products”

Modern Medicine, Water Distribution is powered on oil

In US, approximately 10 calories of fossil fuels are required to produce every 1 calorie of food

Pesticides are made from OilFertilizers are made from ammonia, an

fossil extract

All farming implements such as tractors are constructed and powered using oil

Oil storage systems such as refrigerators are made in oil powered plants and run on electricity

The production of one pair of regular cotton jeans at LEVI’S takes three quarters of a pound of fertilizers and pesticides

“we people gobble oil like two legged SUVs”

Microchipsthe construction of single 32 megabyte DRAM

chip requires 3.5 pounds of fossil fuels “the DAEWOO plant has the capacity

of the production of 20 million such chips in a year”

The construction of a desktop consumes 10 times oil than its weight

The worldwide banking system stands on the availability of cheap oil

“its not physics but reality that money equals energy”

Real usable wealth represents usable energyReal costs represents the energy cost of

doing somethingReal value represents energy cost of building

something

“The scene is set for the Second Great Depression”

“the world's wealth may soon evaporate as we enter a technological and economic "Dark Age.“

London Times, October 2005

“The Government has admitted that companies across Britain might be forced to close this winter because of fuel shortages. “

The Daily Telegraph, April 2007

“the consequences would be unimaginable. Permanent fuel shortages would tip the world into a generations-long economic depression. Millions would lose their jobs as industry implodes. Farm tractors would be idled for lack of fuel, triggering massive famines. Energy wars would flare. And carless suburbanites would trudge to their nearest big box stores, not to buy Chinese made clothing transported cheaply across the globe, but to scavenge glass and copper wire from abandoned buildings”

Chicago Tribune, July 2006

"The price of houses will collapse. Stock markets will crash. Within a short period, human wealth -- little more than a pile of paper at the best of times, even with the confidence about the future high among traders -- will shrivel."

Jonathon Gatehouse, Oxford Geologist

Impact of Energy Crisis on Pakistan

“A Pakistan with serious energy shortages will not be a pleasant Pakistan”-Robert M Hathaway, director of the Asia Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars in Washington.

Governmental figures:By 2015 energy demand in Pakistan will be

nearly 22 percent greater than projected supply

By 2030, this energy shortfall will be 64 percent.

Today, oil and natural gas supply nearly 80 percent of Pakistan’s energy needs.

Pakistan currently produces less than 20 percent of the oil it consumes. This fosters a dependency on imported oil that places considerable strain on the country’s finances.

Gas needs not nearly as critical, Pakistan’s projected natural gas needs are expected almost to double (from 2004 levels) by 2010.

Hydropower and coal are under-utilized

Coal energy mix from 7 to 18 percent by 2018 — a course that may make sense from an energy standpoint, but which carries troubling environmental implications.

Provincial rivalries and widespread public opposition have significantly slowed the government’s plans to build dams capable of generating electricity.

Nuclear power at this point accounts for barely one percent of Pakistan’s energy consumption.

Pakistan’s renewable energy potential — hydro, wind, and solar — is substantial, although presently this potential remains largely untapped.

Future Strategies-Is there any solution?

“I don’t think there is one. The solution is to pray. Under the best of circumstances, if all prayers are answered there will be no crisis for maybe two years. After that it’s a certainty.”

President Bush Energy Advisor, Mathew Simmons

Disaster Management StrategiesUS Govt. Building camps for “emergency

influx of immigrants““Police-state style legislation”"war games on the grandest scale" by

Pentagon to simulate how billions of people will react to food and fuel shortages

UK Register, June 2007

Oil SectorNo refinery built after 1976

Oil giants are not investing much in their business as there is going to be less and less oil to refine

Mergers and Stock Buy Backs by the giants like Exxon Mobile & Chevron

Oil companies de-marketing the concept of “peak oil”

Over estimated reserves-Shell fined $500 million

Fuel efficient Automobile IndustryFuel efficient vehicles-Toyota Prius, Hybrid

SUVs by Ford, Hybrid Trucks by GEGovernment subsidies to the producers of

Hybrid VehiclesPenalties on vehicles with low mileage-

subsidies on vehicles with better mileagesEncourage the public transportation “STOP LEASING!!!!”

Alternative Fuels

Redouble the commitment to energy efficiency

“Come On-Don’t be FUELISH”

DuPont saved $ 2 billion in energy cost by energy efficiency

DOW Chemical800 million BTUs per day

Selling the stocks , bonds and mutual funds before the stock crash

Buy physical precious metals gold and silver and take delivery in your home or to a privately owned security lock box

Buy energy futures to hedge against the price hikes

1. Convert to organic agriculture and grow as much of our food locally as possible

2. Relocalize daily living, work and commerce

3. Vastly expand public transportation4. Convert to non-polluting, renewable

energy sources5. Seek to stabilize and then gradually

reduce world population growth rate6. Vastly increase the efficiency of industry