Oil Sands Market 2014-2024

Oil Sands Market 2014-2024

CAPEX, OPEX, Production Forecasts; Opportunities for In Situ, Mining and Upgrading Companies

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Contents 1. Report Overview

1.1 Oil Sands Market Overview

1.2 Global Oil Sands Market Segmentation

1.3 Why You Should Read This Report

1.4 How This Report Delivers

1.5 Key Questions Answered by This Analytical Report

1.6 Who is This Report For?

1.7 Methodology

1.8 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1.9 Associated Visiongain Reports

1.10 About Visiongain

2. Introduction to the Oil Sands Market 2.1 Oil Sands Market Definition

2.2 Oil Sands, Bitumen, and Heavy Oil

2.2.1 Heavy Oil Defined

2.2.2 Oil Grading and Oil Sands: Heavy Versus Light, Sour versus Sweet

2.3 Oil Sands Reserves

2.4 Oil Sands Extraction

2.4.1 In Situ Drilling

2.4.1.1 Cyclic Steam Stimulation (CSS)

2.4.1.2 Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD)

2.4.1.3 Other In Situ Oil Sand Extraction

2.4.2 Surface Mining

2.5 Oil Sands Upgrading

2.6 Oil Sands Transportation

3. Global Oil Sands Market 2014-2024 3.1 Global Oil Sands Market Forecast 2014-2024

3.1.1 Capital and Operational Expenditure Forecasts

3.1.2 Production Forecast

3.2 Critical Evaluation of Key Market Determinants

3.3 Oil Sands Drivers & Restraints

3.3.1 Drivers in the Oil Sands Market

3.3.1.1 Increasing Demand for Oil

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Contents 3.3.1.2 Sustained High Price of Oil

3.3.1.2 Low Natural Gas Prices

3.3.1.3 North American Oil Refinery Capacity

3.3.1.4 New and Alternative Transportation Solutions

3.3.1.5 Narrowing Price Differential Between WTI and WCS

3.3.1.6 Canadian Synthetic Crude Trading at Comparable Levels to WTI

3.3.1.7 Advances in Oil Sands Technology

3.3.1.8 Favourable Regulatory Climate

3.3.2 Restraints in the Oil Sands Market

3.3.2.1 Infrastructure Bottlenecks

3.3.2.2 Slowing Foreign Investment

3.3.2.3 Skilled Labour Shortage

3.3.2.4 High Cost of Condensates

3.3.2.5 High Water Demand

3.3.2.6 Competition with US Tight Oil Boom

3.4 Case Study: Keystone XL Pipeline

4. Oil Sands Submarkets 2014-2024 4.1 Oil Sands Submarket Forecasts 2014-2024

4.1.1 Submarket Comparison and Analysis

4.2 In Situ Submarket Forecast 2014-2024

4.2.1 In Situ Capital Expenditure Forecast

4.2.2 In Situ Operational Expenditure Forecast

4.2.3 In Situ Production Forecast

4.2.4 In Situ Market Drivers & Restraints

4.2.5 In Situ Projects

4.3 Mining & Upgrading Submarket Forecast 2014-2024

4.3.1 Mining & Upgrading Capital Expenditure Forecast

4.3.2 Mining & Upgrading Operational Expenditure Forecast

4.3.3 Mining Production Forecast

4.3.4 Mining & Upgrading Market Drivers & Restraints

4.3.5 Mining & Upgrading Projects

5. National and Regional Oil Sands Market Forecasts 2014-2024 5.1 National and Regional Oil Sands Markets Share Forecast 2014-2024

5.2 Canadian Oil Sands Market & Submarket Forecasts 2014-2024

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Contents 5.2.1 Canadian Oil Sands Analysis

5.2.2 Canadian Oil Sands Drivers & Restraints

5.2.3 Canadian Oil Sands Projects by Production Area

5.3 Rest of World Oil Sands Market & Submarket Forecasts 2014-2024

5.3.1 Rest of World Oil Sands Analysis

5.3.2 Rest of World Oil Sands Market Outlooks

5.3.2.1 Congolese Oil Sands Outlook

5.3.2.2 Chinese Oil Sands Outlook

5.3.2.3 Madagascar’s Oil Sands Outlook

5.3.2.4 USA’s Oil Sands Outlook

5.3.3 Rest of World Oil Sands Drivers & Restraints

6. PEST Analysis of the Market

7. Expert Opinions 7.1 Suncor Energy, Inc

7.1.1 Suncor Energy’s Growth Strategy

7.1.2 Oil Sands Growth Prospects

7.1.3 Oil Sands Development Outside of Canada

7.1.4 In Situ versus Surface Mining in the Oil Sands Market

7.1.5 Upgraders in the Oil Sands Market

7.1.6 Labour and the Oil Sands Market

7.1.7 Transporting Crude Oil from Oil Sands via Pipeline

7.1.8 Transporting Crude Oil from Oil Sands via Rail

7.1.9 Reducing the Impacts of Oil Sands Production

7.2 US Oil Sands, Inc.

7.2.1 USO in the Oil Sands Market

7.2.2 Growth Prospects for the Oil Sands Market

7.2.3 Challenges and Opportunities for USO in the Oil Sands Market

7.2.4 Transportation and Refining of USO’s Oil Sands

7.2.5 Reducing the Impacts of Oil Sands Production

8. Leading 10 Oil Sands Companies 8.1 Leading 10 Companies in the Oil Sands Market, 2013 Production

8.2 Additional Rankings

8.2.1 Leading 10 Companies in the In Situ Market, 2013 Production

8.2.2 Leading 10 Companies in the Mining & Upgrading Market, 2013 Production

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Contents 8.2.3 Leading 10 Oil Sands Companies, Total Expenditure 2014-2024

8.3 Canadian Natural Resources, Ltd. (CNRL)

8.3.1 Overview and Oil Sands Operations

8.3.2 CNRL’s Ambitious Oil Sands Expansion Plans

8.4 Canadian Oil Sands Limited


8.4.2 Canadian Oil Sands’ Outlook

8.5 Cenovus Energy Inc.


8.6 Chevron Corporation

8.6.1 Overview and Oil Sands Operations and Outlook

8.7 China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC)


8.7.2 Future Outlook

8.8 ConocoPhillips


8.8.2 Continued Expansion Expected

8.9 Devon Energy Corporation


8.9.2 Future Outlook

8.10 Imperial Oil, Ltd.


8.10.2 Imperial’s Expansion Plans and Outlook

8.11 Royal Dutch Shell


8.11.2 Shell’s Future Outlook

8.12 Suncor Energy Inc.


8.12.2 Suncor’s Continued Growth

8.13 Other Leading Companies in the Oil Sands Market

9. Conclusions & Recommendations 9.1 Market Outlook

9.2 Key Findings and Recommendations

10. Glossary

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Oil Sands Market 2014-2024: CAPEX, OPEX, Production Forecasts; Opportunities for In Situ, Mining and Upgrading Companies

Company Project Location Current BPD

Submarket

CNRL Primrose Cold Lake 109,000 In Situ

Husky Energy Tucker Cold Lake 10,000 In Situ

Imperial Oil Cold Lake Cold Lake 154,000 In Situ

Pengrowth Energy Lindbergh Pilot Cold Lake 1,260 In Situ

Shell Orion Cold Lake 10,000 In Situ

Company Project Location Current

BPD

Submarket

Baytex Energy Cliffdale Pilot Peace River 2,000 In Situ

Baytex Energy Harman Valley Pilot Peace River 400 In Situ

Murphy Oil Seal / Cadotte Pilot Peace River 0 In Situ

Penn West Petroleum Seal Main Pilot Peace River 75 In Situ

Shell Cadotte Lake Peace River 18,000 In Situ

Company Project Location Current

BPD

Submarket

Athabasca Oil Sands

Project; (Shell,

Chevron, Marathon)

Scotford Upgrader 1

Commercial and

Upgrader 1

Expansion

Industrial Heartland 237,133 Upgrader

for

Muskeg

River and

Jackpine

Mines

Table 5.6 Operational Cold Lake Region Oil Sands Projects (Company Name(s), Project Title, Location, Current BPD, Submarket)

Table 5.7 Operational Peace River Region Oil Sands Projects (Company Name(s), Project Title, Location, Current BPD, Submarket)

Source: Visiongain 2014



Table 5.8 Operational Industrial Heartland Oil Sands Projects (Company Name(s), Project Title, Location, Current BPD, Submarket)

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Visiongain: How is the industry looking to innovate tailing ponds associated with oil sands

extraction and processing?

KA: This is a constant battle for the industry, but Suncor has recently fully reclaimed one of our

tailings ponds (Wapisiw Lookout). Dealing with these tailing ponds is very important for us, and

various technologies are being developed all the time to combat this issue. Our membership in

COSIA allows us access to other alliance members’ tailings processes & technologies as well.

7.2 US Oil Sands, Inc.

US Oil Sands (“USO” or the “Company”) is a publicly-traded Canadian company founded in 2003

and based in Calgary, Alberta. The Company has developed a patented process which uses a

bio-solvent to economically and environmentally extract bitumen from mined oil sands without the

need for tailings ponds. USO has a 100% interest in bitumen leases covering 32,005 acres of land

in Utah’s Uinta Basin. The Company’s initial 5,930 acre development block, the PR Spring

Development Lease, is independently estimated to contain 184 million barrels of Discovered

Petroleum Initially-in-Place and is the location of the Company’s 2,000 bbl/d Commercial

Demonstration Project that is expected to produce first-oil in 2015.

Cameron Todd is the CEO of USO. Joining the Company in 2011, Cameron has over 30 years of

experience in all areas of the oil and gas industry with extensive experience in production, refining

and marketing in western Canada and internationally. Most recently, Cameron was a senior

executive of an oil sands exploration and production company operating in the Athabasca region of

Alberta. He is a past director of the Petroleum Joint Venture Association and the Canadian

Institute of Mining, Metallurgy and Petroleum and received a B.Sc. in Mechanical Engineering from

the University of Calgary. Visiongain interviewed him in April 2014 and would like to thank him for

his time and expertise.

7.2.1 USO in the Oil Sands Market Visiongain: What sets USO’s approach to oil sands apart from the rest of the industry?

Cameron Todd (CT): USO’s extraction process represents a paradigm shift for the oil sands

mining industry in its ability to economically recover bitumen resources that would otherwise

remain undeveloped while at the same time being a class-leader for environmental stewardship.

The addition of a bio-solvent to the extraction process that is both renewable and biodegradable

results in extraction efficiency of 96%, achieves immediate recycle of 95% of the process water

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8.3 Canadian Natural Resources, Ltd. (CNRL)

8.3.1 Overview and Oil Sands Operations Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNRL) is one of the world’s largest independent crude oil

and natural gas producers. The company has a diverse asset portfolio, which includes natural gas,

light oil, heavy oil, in situ oil sands production, oil sands mining and associated upgrading facilities.

Table 8.5 provides a summary of Canadian Natural Resources Limited and their involvement in the

oil sands market.

Headquarters Calgary, Alberta, Canada

Employees 5,200

Stock Exchange New York Stock Exchange – CNQ

Toronto Stock Exchange – CNQ and CNQ.U

Oil Sands Production 2013 (bpd) 214,000

Oil Sands Market Share 2013 (%) 11.3%

Oil Sands Market Rank 2014 3rd

CNRL’s primary oil sands in situ operation is located at the Primrose field in the Cold Lake region

of Alberta, with a thermal in-situ operation used to produce bitumen. The Primrose field where

production first started in 1985 using CSS technology amounts to 109,000 bpd, and has a capacity

of 120,000 bpd. CNRL also has one of the largest mining and upgrading operations in the oil sands

market, the Horizon mine and upgrader in North Athabasca. This facility is currently producing at

near capacity, at over 117,000 bpd. Before the end of the year CNRL’s Kirby South project will

start production. The first phase of the CAD$1.25 billion SAGD project in the South Athabasca

region will add a further 40,000 bpd of production capacity. Figure 8.2 shows the location, type and

production capacity (bpd) of CNRL’s oil sands operations.


Table 8.5 CNRL Overview: Headquarters, Employees, Stock Exchange, Total Oil Sands Production 2013 (bpd), Oil Sands Market Share 2013 (%), Oil Sands Market Rank 2014

Oil Sands Market 2014-2024

Business

Transcript of Oil Sands Market 2014-2024