Oil Price Update
15
Oil Price Update A Presentation to the A Presentation to the Committee on Trade & Commerce Committee on Trade & Commerce November 20, 2007 November 20, 2007 Secretary Angelo T. Reyes Secretary Angelo T. Reyes Department of Energy Department of Energy
description
Oil Price Update. A Presentation to the Committee on Trade & Commerce November 20, 2007 Secretary Angelo T. Reyes Department of Energy. International vs. Domestic Prices. INTERNATIONAL PRICES December 2004 – November 2007. $/bbl. Diesel MTD Nov - $108.41 (+50.1% from Dec 06 ave.). - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Oil Price Update
Oil Price UpdateOil Price Update
A Presentation to theA Presentation to the
Committee on Trade & CommerceCommittee on Trade & Commerce
November 20, 2007November 20, 2007
Secretary Angelo T. ReyesSecretary Angelo T. Reyes
Department of EnergyDepartment of Energy
A Presentation to theA Presentation to the
Committee on Trade & CommerceCommittee on Trade & Commerce
November 20, 2007November 20, 2007
Secretary Angelo T. ReyesSecretary Angelo T. Reyes
Department of EnergyDepartment of Energy
International vs. Domestic Prices
Dec-06% Inc
Gasoline 37.24 43.95 18.0Diesel 33.24 37.95 14.2Kerosene 34.77 39.49 13.6LPG* 42.20 52.02 23.3
Gasoline 68.16 99.03 45.3Diesel 72.20 108.41 50.1Kerosene 77.42 111.64 44.2LPG (CP) 43.60 65.57 50.4
International Prices ($/bbl)
19-NovDomestic Prices (P/li, P/kg*)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Dec
1 '0
4
Jan
14
Mar
2
Apr
il 7
May
20
July
4
Aug
16
Sep
27
Nov
10
Dec
22
Feb
7
Mar
21
May
3
Jun
15
Jul 2
7
Sep
8
Oct
20
Dec
4
Jan
12
Feb
11
Mar
13
Apr
12
May
12
Jun
11
Jul 1
1
Aug
11
Sep
10
Oct
10
Nov
9
$/bbl
INTERNATIONAL PRICES
December 2004 – November 2007
Diesel MTD Nov - $108.41(+50.1% from Dec 06 ave.)(+50.1% from Dec 06 ave.)
ULG MTD Nov - $99.03(+45.3% from Dec 06 (+45.3% from Dec 06
ave.)ave.)Dubai MTD Nov - $85.92
(+46.4% from Dec 06 ave.)(+46.4% from Dec 06 ave.)
LPG November - $65.57(+50.4% from Dec 06 ave.)(+50.4% from Dec 06 ave.)
INTERNATIONAL PRICES
DUBAI
MONTH 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007
January 58.44 51.69 52.58 48.91 19.32 15.90
February 57.61 55.75 51.79 48.37 18.76 16.96
March 57.82 58.76 51.19 48.50 18.62 17.92
April 64.14 63.97 51.38 47.83 20.73 19.24
May 65.00 64.61 52.16 46.80 21.32 19.02
June 65.22 65.79 53.18 46.18 21.81 19.11
July 69.17 69.49 52.30 45.58 22.75 19.92
August 68.77 67.38 51.33 46.19 22.20 19.58
September 59.82 73.36 50.36 46.05 18.95 21.25
October 56.42 77.12 49.99 44.30 17.74 21.49
November 56.72 85.92 49.84 43.35 17.78 23.42
December 58.68 49.43 18.25
AVERAGE 61.48 66.71 51.29 46.55 19.85 19.44
DUBAI (P/l)DUBAI ($/BBL) FOREX (P/$)
P/li
DOMESTIC PRICES
December 2004 – November 2007
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Dec 1
'04
Jan
7Fe
b 16
Mar
23
Apr 2
8Ju
n 6
Jul 1
1
Aug
15Se
p 19
Oct 2
4
Nov
30Ja
n 4
Feb
8
Mar
15
Apr 1
9M
ay 2
4
Jun
28Au
g 2
Sep
6
Oct 1
1No
v 15
Dec 2
0
Jan
19Fe
b 13
Mar
10
Apr 4
Apr 2
9M
ay 2
4Ju
n 18
Jul 1
3Au
g 7
Sep
1
Sep
26Oc
t 21
Nov
15
ULG MTD Nov – P43.95(+18.0% from Dec 06 ave.)
ADO MTD Nov – P37.95(+14.2% from Dec 06 ave.)
LPG WPP MTD Nov – P26.26(27.0% from Dec 06 ave.)
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
All items Food, Beverages & TobaccoClothing Housing and RepairsFuel, light & water ServicesMiscellaneus
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX2006-2007 (2000=100)
INTERNATIONAL vs. DOMESTIC PRICES
UNLEADED
MONTH 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007
January 66.78 61.59 52.58 48.91 22.08 18.95 36.58 35.75
February 65.02 66.80 51.79 48.37 21.18 20.32 37.24 35.45
March 69.64 76.62 51.19 48.50 22.42 23.37 36.74 36.95
April 81.13 83.49 51.38 47.83 26.22 25.12 38.74 37.95
May 86.80 88.77 52.16 46.80 28.47 26.13 40.74 39.45
June 82.76 84.79 53.18 46.18 27.68 24.62 42.74 40.45
July 85.50 85.35 52.30 45.58 28.13 24.46 43.74 40.95
August 81.22 77.15 51.33 46.19 26.22 22.42 42.24 40.95
September 65.86 82.51 50.36 46.05 20.86 23.89 39.74 41.45
October 61.83 88.71 49.99 44.30 19.44 24.72 38.24 42.45
November 62.89 99.03 49.84 43.35 19.71 26.99 37.24 43.95
December 68.16 49.43 21.19 37.24
AVERAGE 73.13 81.34 51.29 46.55 23.63 23.73 39.27 39.61
PHILS.
DOMESTIC PRICE (P/l)
UNL (P/l)MOPS ($/BBL) FOREX (P/$)
INTERNATIONAL PRICE
INTERNATIONAL vs. DOMESTIC PRICES
DIESEL
MONTH 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007
January 73.14 68.45 52.58 48.91 24.18 21.06 31.67 31.75
February 71.90 71.67 51.79 48.37 23.42 21.80 32.24 31.45
March 77.99 75.03 51.19 48.50 25.11 22.89 32.74 32.45
April 86.66 82.11 51.38 47.83 28.00 24.70 34.74 33.45
May 87.53 83.42 52.16 46.80 28.71 24.55 36.24 34.45
June 87.57 84.20 53.18 46.18 29.29 24.45 36.24 34.45
July 87.37 88.13 52.30 45.58 28.74 25.26 37.24 34.95
August 87.39 85.57 51.33 46.19 28.21 24.86 37.24 34.95
September 76.95 92.83 50.36 46.05 24.37 26.88 35.24 35.95
October 72.27 97.35 49.99 44.30 22.72 27.12 33.74 36.95
November 71.03 108.41 49.84 43.35 22.27 29.55 33.24 37.95
December 72.20 49.43 22.45 33.24
AVERAGE 79.33 85.20 51.29 46.55 25.62 24.83 34.48 34.43
PHILS.
DOMESTIC PRICE (P/l)
ADO (P/l)MOPS ($/BBL) FOREX (P/$)
INTERNATIONAL PRICE
INTERNATIONAL vs. DOMESTIC PRICES
KEROSENE
MONTH 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007
January 77.02 69.66 52.58 48.91 25.47 21.43 33.17 33.29
February 74.96 71.77 51.79 48.37 24.42 21.83 33.77 32.99
March 75.66 75.02 51.19 48.50 24.36 22.88 34.27 33.99
April 84.77 80.91 51.38 47.83 27.39 24.34 36.27 34.99
May 85.55 82.14 52.16 46.80 28.06 24.18 38.27 35.99
June 86.18 83.75 53.18 46.18 28.82 24.32 40.27 35.99
July 87.57 87.16 52.30 45.58 28.81 24.98 41.27 36.49
August 89.47 84.28 51.33 46.19 28.88 24.48 39.77 36.49
September 80.55 90.44 50.36 46.05 25.51 26.19 37.27 36.99
October 74.02 96.62 49.99 44.30 23.27 26.92 35.77 37.99
November 73.63 111.64 49.84 43.35 23.08 30.43 34.77 39.49
December 77.42 49.43 24.07 34.77
AVERAGE 80.57 84.85 51.29 46.55 26.01 24.73 36.64 35.88
PHILS.
DOMESTIC PRICE (P/l)
KERO (P/l)MOPS ($/BBL) FOREX (P/$)
INTERNATIONAL PRICE
INTERNATIONAL vs. DOMESTIC PRICES
LPG
MONTH 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007
January 582.00 548.50 52.58 48.91 30.60 26.48 46.39 44.17
February 625.50 526.00 51.79 48.37 32.40 25.11 48.01 43.06
March 530.00 506.00 51.19 48.50 27.14 24.22 44.44 41.93
April 428.00 540.50 51.38 47.83 21.99 25.52 39.39 43.06
May 470.00 570.50 52.16 46.80 24.52 26.35 41.07 44.17
June 470.00 606.00 53.18 46.18 25.00 27.62 41.63 45.30
July 502.00 589.00 52.30 45.58 26.26 26.49 43.31 44.19
August 547.00 597.50 51.33 46.19 28.08 27.24 44.99 44.74
September 560.90 574.00 50.36 46.05 28.25 26.09 45.55 45.30
October 483.50 657.50 49.99 44.30 24.17 28.75 42.75 48.10
November 464.00 747.50 49.84 43.35 23.13 31.98 42.20 52.02
December 490.50 49.43 24.25 42.20
AVERAGE 512.78 587.55 51.29 46.55 26.32 26.89 43.49 45.09
PHILS.
DOMESTIC PRICE (P/kg)
LPG (P/kg)CP ($/MT) FOREX (P/$)
INTERNATIONAL PRICE
Calculated Domestic Prices based on Incremental Cost of Products (MOPS)
Estimate Difference Estimate Difference@ P44/ $ vs. Dec-06 @ P55/ $ vs. Dec-06
Dec-06 Nov-07 Nov-07 Nov-07 Nov-07% Inc P/ li %
Gasoline 37.24 43.95 18.0 51.07 13.83 59.17 21.93 8.10 36.9Diesel 33.24 37.95 14.2 46.62 13.38 55.48 22.24 8.85 39.8Kerosene 34.77 39.49 13.6 49.20 14.43 58.32 23.55 9.11 38.7LPG 42.20 52.02 23.3 60.96 18.76 70.71 28.51 9.75 34.2Basis int'l price: $/ bbl $/ bblGasoline 68.16 99.03 45.3 30.86 30.86Diesel 72.20 108.41 50.1 36.21 36.21Kerosene 77.42 111.64 44.2 34.22 34.22LPG (CP) 43.60 65.57 50.4 21.97 21.97
P/ li Savings for(P/ li, P/ kg)
Nov-0719-Nov
Prevailing PricesStrong Peso
$/ bbl
P/ li, P/ kgP/ li, P/ kg
Luzon Visayas Mindanao Philippines
Diesel 0.0002 0.0015 0.0002 0.0004
Bunker 0.0002 0.0198 0.0659 0.0161
Est. Increase in Fuel Generation
Cost for every P1 per Unit Increase in
Fuel
Source: NPC November 2005 – January 2006 Billing
P/kWh
COMPARATIVE PRICESNovember 19, 2007
Pump Price in peso per literPump Price in peso per liter
Unleaded Gasoline DieselPump Price Pump Price
Hongkong 80.35 53.83New Zealand 59.13 40.17Singapore 58.04 43.71Australia 52.94 55.13Thailand 44.47 39.61Philippines 43.95 37.95
MITIGATING MEASURES
The DOE has recommended the reduction of tariff on oil.
The inauguration of the CNG retail station in Laguna would provide the transport groups, specifically the bus companies, an alternative fuel supply.
Strict implementation of energy conservation measures in the public sector and seek close cooperation with the private sector to implement the DOE’s energy conservation and efficiency programs.
The DOE would strengthen enforcement against illegal activities to ensure that the consumers will get their money’s worth.
The DOE to address the problem of the transport sector on “kotong” and colorum.
