Oil Monitor 2005

7/29/2019 Oil Monitor 2005

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OIL MONITOR As of December 27, 2005

WORLD OIL PRICES. Oil prices remain lower with the unseasonably mild weather in America’s populous North East, which also proved to have triggered for falls in energy-related stocks. In wintry London, Brent crude was down by about $1 per barrel from Friday’s

pre-Christmas trading, while Nymex WTI rose by about $0.50 cents a barrel.

Some oil analysts projected of continued high prices in 2006. But any increase would be modest, forecasting a 7.5% increase for theyear or to an average of $61 per barrel for WTI. The Center for Global Energy Studies (CGES), a London-based think tank that specializes in OPEC watching, on the other hand, sees a good chance of substantial softening of the oil market.

High prices, according to CGES, are taking a severe toll on world oil consumption, and OPEC will have to make a significant cut of 1million barrels per day or so to prevent a serious slump in prices. Most forecasters think demand growth, which according to CGES hasfallen to around 1.4% in 2005 after the enormous 3.7% increase in 2004, will again be modest in 2006.

Month-to-date price of Asian Dubai crude posted an average increase of $1.98/bbl over the November average. On the other hand,gasoline and diesel also posted an average increase of $0.16/bbl and $1.85/bbl, respectively, for the same period. As for LPG, from anall time high of $549/MT in November, the Contract Price decreased by about $11/MT in December.

For added oil price monitoring link, the public may refer to the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP) Websitehttp://www.aip.com.au/pricing , where MOPS information is made available, in charts, on a regular basis. In addition, charts with the dataused to produce the graphs are accessible at http://www.med.govt.nz/ers/oil_pet/prices/prices.html, New Zealand’s Ministry of Economic Development Website.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES. Gasoline and diesel prices remain the samefor a month now. Exclusive of VAT, the rates of increase on these productsfor this year remain lower than the rate of increase in the international prices.

For LPG, price remains steady for the past three weeks. Excluding VAT,domestic LPG prices are back to the pre VAT levels.

With the series of downward adjustments in pump prices, even with the imposition of the VAT, the current pump price of diesel at P31.17/liter is even lower than its pre-VAT pump price (prior to November 1, 2005) of P32.95/liter. The current average price of unleaded gasoline at 36.08/liter is now close to its pre-VAT pump price of P36.05/liter.

ULG ADO

As o f Dec 27, 2005

As o f Nov 25, 2005

As o f Nov 22, 2005

P 36.08

P 36.08

P 36.58

P 31.17

P 31.17

P 31.67

As o f Nov 14, 2005

End of Oct 2005

P 37.08

P 36.00

P 32.17

P 32.90

End of Dec 2004 P 27.93 P 23.28

For more information, call theDepartment of Energy:

Pricing: 840-2187 LPG: 840-2130 Fuels: 840-5669

SMS: (0915) 4469421Email: [email protected] Website: http://www.doe.gov.ph

Sample Computat ion of

Current Pump Pr ic es As o f t oday

*Dealers’ pick up price.

**Wholesale Price

***Prices may vary based on location, company and other factors.

Pump Price (PP) PP Rollback New PP Final

as of Dec 02, 2005 without VAT without VAT without VAT PP

a b c d=b+c e=(d*0.1) f=d+e g=f-a

Unleaded 36.08 32.80 0.00 32.80 3.28 36.08 0.00Regular 33.93 30.85 0.00 30.85 3.08 33.93 0.00

Diesel 31.17 28.34 0.00 28.34 2.83 31.17 0.00

Kerosene 32.68 29.71 0.00 29.71 2.97 32.68 0.00

Bunker** 21.64 19.67 0.00 19.67 1.97 21.64 0.00

LPG (P/cyl inder) * 477 .10 - 522 .10 433 .73 - 474 .66 0 .00 433 .73 - 474 .64 43.37 - 47.46 477 .10 - 522 .10 0 .00

LPG (P/cyl inder) * 483 .15 - 528 .15 439 .23 - 480 .14 0 .00 439 .23 - 480 .14 43.92 - 48.01 483 .15 - 528 .15 0 .00

Adjustme nt

***Products 10% VAT

7/29/2019 Oil Monitor 2005



WORLD OIL PRICES. Oil prices fell to its lowest level in more than two weeks on Monday, Dec 19, as traders took note of warmer weather in the Northeast. Light sweet crude for January delivery declined by about $2.00/bbl on the New York Mercantile

Exchange, the lowest close for the front-month contract since Nov. 30.

The decline in Nymex crude prices came as temperatures rose in New York and throughout the U.S. Northeast, the world's largest market for heating oil. However, analysts noted that the price of crude is unlikely to decline further as the cold and snowy weather returns during the holiday season.

Month-to-date price of Asian Dubai crude posted an average of $2.35/bbl increase over the November average. On the other hand,gasoline and diesel also posted an average increase of $0.30/bbl and $1.12/bbl, respectively, for the same period. As for LPG, from anall time high of $549/MT in November, the Contract Price decreased by about $11/MT in December.


DOMESTIC OIL PRICES. Gasoline and diesel prices remain the samefor the past 3 weeks. Exclusive of VAT, the rates of increase on these products for this year remain lower than the rate of increase in theinternational prices.

For LPG, price remains steady for the past two weeks. Excluding VAT,domestic LPG prices are back to the pre VAT levels.

With the series of downward adjustments in pump prices, even with the imposition of the VAT, the current pump price of diesel at

P31.17/liter is even lower than its pre-VAT pump price (prior to November 1, 2005) of P32.95/liter. The current average price of unleaded gasoline at 36.08/liter is now close to its pre-VAT pump price of P36.05/liter.

ULG ADO

As o f Dec 20, 2005

As o f Nov 25, 2005

As o f Nov 22, 2005

P 36.08

P 36.08

P 36.58

P 31.17

P 31.17

P 31.67

As o f Nov 14, 2005

End of Oct 2005

P 37.08

P 36.00

P 32.17

P 32.90

End of Dec 2004 P 27.93 P 23.28

For more information, call theDepartment of Energy:Pricing: 840-2187 LPG: 840-2130 Fuels: 840-5669


Sample Computat ion of

Current Pump Pr ic es As o f t oday


**Wholesale Price

***Prices may vary based on location, company and other factors.


as of Dec 02, 2005 without VAT without VAT without VAT PP


Unleaded 36.08 32.80 0.00 32.80 3.28 36.08 0.00

Regular 33.93 30.85 0.00 30.85 3.08 33.93 0.00

Diesel 31.17 28.34 0.00 28.34 2.83 31.17 0.00

Kerosene 32.68 29.71 0.00 29.71 2.97 32.68 0.00

Bunker** 21.64 19.67 0.00 19.67 1.97 21.64 0.00

LPG (P/cyl inder) * 477 .10 - 522 .10 433 .73 - 474 .66 0 .00 433 .73 - 474 .64 43.37 - 47.46 477 .10 - 522 .10 0 .00LPG (P/cyl inder) * 483 .15 - 528 .15 439 .23 - 480 .14 0 .00 439 .23 - 480 .14 43.92 - 48.01 483 .15 - 528 .15 0 .00

Adjustme nt

***Products 10% VAT

7/29/2019 Oil Monitor 2005



WORLD OIL PRICES. Oil prices were higher as forecasts for deepening cold weather in the US Northeast, the world’s largest heating oil market, offset OPEC’s decision to keep oil production unchanged at 28 million barrels per day. January-dated Brent futurescontracts were up by about US$0.51 a barrel, while US benchmark WTI January-dated contracts were up by around US$0.46/barrel. Asian benchmark Dubai crude futures likewise follow the trend.

Cold temperatures in the northern hemisphere and forecasts of freezing weather have been supporting oil prices, with analysts

predicting the reversal of the downtrend in the past three months. Oil prices have been falling steadily ever since reaching record highsin August after hurricane Katrina ravaged the US Gulf Coast.

Also supporting the bullish market is the blast at a major British oil depot near Hemel Hempstead in Hertfordshire (25 miles northwest of London) which left markets jittery ahead of the OPEC meeting. The depot, which holds about 5% of Britain’s fuel stocks, supplies fuel toa large part of southeast England, including Luton and Heathrow airports.

OPEC, while leaving things as they are at the moment, will meet again in end-January 2006 to discuss if there would be a need toreduce production. As winter ends and demand slows, risk of flooding the market is likely, and may warrant action by the cartel to keepthe market in balance. OPEC officials aver that the second quarter is going to be a huge challenge, especially if rising stockpilescoincide with falling prices. OPEC may have to start cutting in February if they are going to try to prevent a major stock-build before theweaker demand period.

Month-to-date price of Dubai crude posted an average of $1.98/bbl increase over the November average. On the other hand, gasoline

and diesel registered respective drops of $0.87/bbl and $0.96/bbl for the same period. As for LPG, from an all time high of $549/MT inNovember, the Contract Price decreased by about $11/MT in December.


DOMESTIC OIL PRICES. Gasoline and diesel prices remain the sameas the past week. Exclusive of VAT, the rates of increase on these products for this year remain lower than the rate of increase in theinternational prices.

In view of competitive and market forces, especially the decrease of theSaudi Aramco Contract Price in December, the oil companies except Petron, which did not increase its LPG price since November 09, effected aP1.00/kg decrease by end-November. Excluding VAT, domestic LPG prices are back to the pre VAT levels.


UnleadedGasoline

Diesel

As o f Dec 05, 2005

As o f Nov 25, 2005

As o f Nov 22, 2005

P 36.08

P 36.08

P 36.58

P 31.17

P 31.17

P 31.67

As o f Nov 14, 2005

End of Oct 2005

P 37.08

P 36.05

P 32.17

P 32.95

End of Dec 2004 P 27.93 P 23.28

For more information, call theDepartment of Energy:Pricing: 840-2187 LPG: 840-2130

Fuels: 840-5669


Sample Computat ion of Current Pump Pr ices and

w i th ro l lback on LPG

As of No ve m be r 30 , 2 00 5


**Wholesale Price

***The 30 November 2005 price rollback of P1.00/kg on LPG is exclusive of VAT. Prices may vary based on location,

company and other factors. Only Caltex& Shell advised of a roll-back.


as of Nov. 24,2005 without VAT without VAT without VAT PP


Unleaded 36.08 32.80 0.00 32.80 3.28 36.08 0.00

Regular 33.93 30.85 0.00 30.85 3.08 33.93 0.00

Diesel 31.17 28.34 0.00 28.34 2.83 31.17 0.00

Kerosene 32.68 29.71 0.00 29.71 2.97 32.68 0.00

Bunker** 21.64 19.67 0.00 19.67 1.97 21.64 0.00

LPG (P/cyl inde r) * 477 .10 - 522 .10 433 .73 - 474 .66 0 .00 433 .73 - 474 .64 43.37 - 47 .46 477 .10 - 522 .10 0 .00

LPG (P/cylinder)* 489.20 - 534.20 444.73 - 485.64 (11.00) 433.73 - 474.64 43.37 - 47.46 477.10 - 522.10 (12.10)

LPG (P/cylinder)* 495.25 - 540.25 450.23 - 491.14 (11.00) 439.23 - 480.14 43.92 - 48.01 483.15 - 528.15 (12.10)

Adjustment

***Products 10% VAT

7/29/2019 Oil Monitor 2005



WORLD OIL PRICES. Oil prices were higher in Asian trade Monday as cold weather chilled key areas of the United States,raising expectations of a rise in demand for heating oil. Likewise, New York’s WTI rose as forecasters predicted a prolonged cold snapin the northeastern part of the United States, and is expected to run up further if the cold spell continues.

OPEC and the European Union, in its meeting to explore ways to manage price volatility in the oil market, warned that oil prices would remain potentially volatile for the next few years because of bottlenecks in the refining system.

Nevertheless, oil company executives spoke of a possible sharp drop in prices and called current levels "unsustainably high" and that the high price cycle is “artificially inflated”. Throughout the history of oil prices, the business has witnessed a succession of booms and busts, and oil companies have found it impossible to balance their future production with the world's need for oil. Too much capacity,and prices fall; too little, and they rise. Indeed, forecasting the level of supplies needed to keep up with long-term demand is one of thetricky problems that the oil industry faces.

With the current high oil price, oil producers are again under pressure to increase production and refining, and to increase investmentsto bring more oil to the markets quickly. But oil executives and government ministers are concerned that if demand were to slow down,even a little bit, these investments might create a large oversupply of oil in two to three years that will push prices down again like in1998 when the oil price collapsed.

Dubai crude price slightly increased in December, posting an average of $0.92/bbl, higher than November average. On the other hand,gasoline and diesel continuously dropped by an average of $2.56/bbl and $2.39/bbl, respectively, for the same period.

From an all time high of $549/MT in November, the Contract Price of LPG decreased by about $11/MT in December.


DOMESTIC OIL PRICES. Gasoline and diesel prices remain the sameas the past week. Exclusive of VAT, the rates of increase on these

products for this year remain lower than the rate of increase in theinternational prices.

In view of competitive and market forces, especially the decrease of theSaudi Aramco Contract Price in December, the oil companies except Petron, which did not increase its LPG price since November 09, effected aP1.00/kg decrease on LPG last week. Excluding VAT, domestic LPG prices are back to the pre VAT levels.


UnleadedGasoline

Diesel

As o f Dec 05, 2005 As o f Nov 25, 2005

As o f Nov 22, 2005

P 36.08 P 36.08

P 36.58

P 31.17 P 31.17

P 31.67

As o f Nov 14, 2005

End of Oct 2005

P 37.08

P 36.05

P 32.17

P 32.95

End of Dec 2004 P 27.93 P 23.28

For more information, call the

Department of Energy:Pricing: 840-2187 LPG: 840-2130

SMS: (0915) 4469421Email: [email protected]

Sample Computat ion of Current Pump Pr ices and

w i th ro l lback on LPG

As of No ve m be r 30 , 2 00 5


**Wholesale Price

***The 30 November 2005 price rollback of P1.00/kg on LPG is exclusive of VAT. Prices may vary based on location,

company and other factors. Only Caltex& Shell advised of a roll-back.


as of Nov. 24,2005 without VAT without VAT without VAT PP


Unleaded 36.08 32.80 0.00 32.80 3.28 36.08 0.00

Regular 33.93 30.85 0.00 30.85 3.08 33.93 0.00

Diesel 31.17 28.34 0.00 28.34 2.83 31.17 0.00

Kerosene 32.68 29.71 0.00 29.71 2.97 32.68 0.00

Bunker** 21.64 19.67 0.00 19.67 1.97 21.64 0.00

LPG (P/cyl inde r) * 477 .10 - 522 .10 433 .73 - 474 .66 0 .00 433 .73 - 474 .64 43.37 - 47 .46 477 .10 - 522 .10 0 .00

LPG (P/cylinder)* 489.20 - 534.20 444.73 - 485.64 (11.00) 433.73 - 474.64 43.37 - 47.46 477.10 - 522.10 (12.10)

LPG (P/cylinder)* 495.25 - 540.25 450.23 - 491.14 (11.00) 439.23 - 480.14 43.92 - 48.01 483.15 - 528.15 (12.10)

Adjustment

***Products 10% VAT

7/29/2019 Oil Monitor 2005


OIL MONITOR As of November 25, 2005

WORLD OIL PRICES. Oil prices fell in Asian trading after a healthy US energy stockpile levels helped to counteract concernsabout shortfalls in heating fuel supplies during winter in the northern hemisphere. The higher inventory levels suggest that US oil

companies are able rebuild their stocks because of milder weather after the battered operations due to hurricanes in August and September. Likewise in London, the price of Brent North Sea crude for January delivery lost 20 cents a barrel.

The Centre for Global Energy Studies noted that US stockpile levels are strong enough to continue pushing current oil prices lower inspite of cold weather forecasts. Market analysts are of the opinion that supply fears have eased fairly in recent weeks and demand growth figures for year 2006 are still being revised downwards.

However, warnings against suggestions that oil prices are collapsing have been aired by the forecasters, noting that at their current levels they are considerably higher than they were this time last year. They added that the weather this winter will limit any downward movement in prices and what happens to prices over winter will be determined by how severe the cold weather is.

World oil prices are presently about a third higher than their levels at the start of the year. Yet, it has been trending down after hitting post-hurricane levels in end-August, and forward planners see that the downtrend will continue into the coming year except for any supply disruptions.

From an all-time high of $59.18/bbl on 01 September, Dubai crude price continue to soften in November, now posting an average of $2.29/bbl lower than October average. Likewise, gasoline and diesel dropped significantly for the same period.

However, the Contract Price of LPG further increased to a new record high level of $549/MT in November, or about $30/MT over the past month partly due to continued tight supply owing to the foreseen cold weather across Europe and North America.


DOMESTIC OIL PRICES. On November 24, the oil companies effected the

fifth rollback for the month by the amount of P0.50/liter for unleaded gasoline and diesel. Exclusive of VAT, the rates of increase in gasolineand diesel prices are still lower than the rate of increase in the international prices. Specifically, respective local prices of unleaded gasoline and diesel are 17% and 22% higher now than the start of the year compared to 38%and 28% increase in their prices in the international market for the same period. No adjustment for LPG was effected as of the date.

Based on the downward adjustments in pump prices, even with theimposition of the VAT, the current pump price of diesel at P31.17/liter is even lower than its pre-VAT pump price (prior to November 1,2005) of P32.95/liter. The current price of unleaded gasoline at 36.08/liter is now close to its pre-VAT pump price of P36.05/liter.

Unleaded

Gasoline

Diesel

As o f Nov 25, 2005

As o f Nov 22, 2005

P 36.08

P 36.58

P 31.17

P 31.67

As o f Nov 14, 2005 P 37.08 P 32.17

End of Oct 2005 P 36.05 P 32.95

End of Dec 2004 P 27.93 P 23.28

For more information, call theDepartment of Energy:Pricing: 840-2187

LPG: 840-2130 Fuels: 840-5669


Sample Computat ion of Cur rent Pump Pr ices

wi t h Rol lback on Fuels As of November 24, 2005


**The 24 November 2005 price rollback of P0.50/liter on liquid fuels is inclusiveof VAT.

Prices may vary based on location, company and other factors


as of Nov. 23,2005 without VAT without VAT without VAT PPa b c d=b+c e=(d*0.1) f=d+e g=f -a

Unleaded 36.58 33.25 (0.45) 32.80 3.28 36.08 (0.50)

Regular 34.43 31.30 (0.45) 30.85 3.08 33.93 (0.50)

Diesel 31.67 28.79 (0.45) 28.34 2.83 31.17 (0.50)

Kerosene 33.18 30.16 (0.45) 29.71 2.97 32.68 (0.50)

Bunker 22.82 20.75 (0.44) 20.31 2.03 22.34 (0.48)

LPG (P/cyl inde r) * 477 .10 - 522 .10 433 .73 - 474 .66 0 .00 433 .73 - 474.64 43.37 - 47 .46 477 .10 - 522 .10 0 .00

LPG (P/cyl inde r) * 489 .20 - 534 .20 444 .73 - 485 .64 0 .00 444 .73 - 485.64 44.47 - 48 .56 489 .20 - 534 .20 0 .00

LPG (P/cyl inde r) * 495 .25 - 540 .25 450 .23 - 491 .14 0 .00 450 .23 - 491.14 45.02 - 49 .11 495 .25 - 540 .25 0 .00

Adjustment

**Products 10% VAT

7/29/2019 Oil Monitor 2005


OIL MONITOR As of October 25, 2005

WORLD OIL PRICES. World oil prices, projected to remain above $US50/bbl, will further erode global energy demand growthaccording to the Centre for Global Energy Studies’ (CGES) report. Oil prices in Asia, were generally stable after slipping in Londonand New York on Monday as Hurricane Wilma maintained her projected path away from oil and gas producing areas of the Gulf of Mexico

Oil demand growth in 2005 is seen to be little more than a third of the growth observed in 2004 and high oil prices have been felt by final consumers this year than last year. Although global oil demand growth would remain weak in 2006, it would still outstrip production of non-OPEC countries including Russia and the United States, CGES said.

OPEC, however, would easily keep oil prices above $US50 per barrel by just cutting output, unless growth in global demand rebounds.

Economic analysts have likewise indicated that high global energy prices could dampen demand in the coming year, but would still continue to grow strongly by an average of 1.8 percent over the next couple of years, the recent EIA Short Term Outlook noted.

The EIA's growth predictions have fueled a slew of analyst reports projecting sustained crude oil prices in the mid-$60s for the next couple of years, declining to the $40s range by about 2010 -- when OPEC has pledged to add another 5 million barrels a day of crude.

From an all-time high of $59.18/bbl on 01 September, Dubai price continue to soften in October, posting an average of $2.35/bbl lower than September average. Gasoline also recorded a drop of $8.83/bbl on assumption that high prices are reducing consumption of

petrol in the US, the world’s strongest economy. Likewise, diesel posted an average slide of $2.12/bbl for the same period.

The Contract Price of LPG increased to record high level of $519/MT in October, or about $79/MT over the past month partly due tocontinued tight supply owing to the foreseen cold weather across Europe and North America.


DOMESTIC OIL PRICES. Premium unleaded gasoline priceincreased by another P0.50/li over the weekend. The rate of increases in domestic oil prices however, is still lower than the rate of

increase in international oil prices. Specifically, local prices of unleaded gasoline and diesel are 29% and 42% respectively, higher now than the start of the year compared to 57% and 51% increase intheir prices in the international market for the same period.

Further, the price of LPG has also increased by P0.50/kg over theweekend or a total of P3.50-P5.00/kg this month, translating toP38.50-P55.00/11kg-cylinder due to the month-on-month increase in Contract Price (CP) by US$78.76 per metric ton.

Domestic prices of gasoline and diesel in the country remain lowest compared with prices in other countries in Asia and Pacific regionsthat do not provide oil price subsidies.

UnleadedGasoline

Diesel

As of Oc t 24, 2005P 36.05 P 32.95

End of Sep 2005 P 34.54 P 31.95

End of Dec 2004 P 27.93 P 23.28

% Increase in 200529% 42%


Fuels: 840-5669


COMPARATIVE PRICESOctober 24, 2005

Pump Price in peso per literPump Price in peso per liter

Unleaded Gasoline Diesel

Pump Price Pump Price

Hongkong 93.98 59.35

New Zea land 60.92 41.38

Singapore 59.73 39.18

Australia 55.38 56.43

Thailand 36.71 32.42

Philippines 36.05 32.95US (Cali fornia) 42.56 47.22

7/29/2019 Oil Monitor 2005


OIL MONITOR As of September 26, 2005

WORLD OIL PRICES. World oil prices eased due to the downgrading of Hurricane Rita over the weekend, as it veered away fromthe huge refining complexes clustered along the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). However, 16 Texas oil refineries (4.1 million barrels/day capacity) remained shut down after the storm, while three are operating at reduced rates. Another four refineries are still shut by theKatrina damage.

Although the initial impact of the hurricane was regional, its implications for the oil market are global, thus would still effect pricemovements in Asia. The loss of production in the GOM and considerable damage to oil refining and transportation infrastructureconstitute a serious disruption of supplies. But while US President Bush said the government would tap the nation’s reserves to makeup for lost oil production from the hurricanes, supply concerns still weighed on traders. As such, the price of a barrel of light crude oil traded higher on the NYMEX after an initial decline, and gasoline futures also moved up.

Market analysts likewise believe that prices may rise in the next several days, reflecting the delay in the system the affected facilitieshave to go through. Yet, they suppose it should be lighter than the increase with Katrina, as price pressures in the energy markets areexpected to ease due to short-term drop in demand despite the temporary demand surges from the back-to-back evacuations. Further,the refinery outages have also eased the demand for crude oil, prompting a pullback in prices. However, while early estimates were that Hurricane Rita will cost U.S. refiners about 800,000 barrels a day in capacity, on top of a drop about 900,000 barrels a day because of Katrina, the assessment on the extent of Rita’s impact is not yet available.

To make incremental oil available to the market, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said it would decide if a further release of state-held stockpiles of crude and gasoline is warranted within a week or so based on the impact of hurricane Rita. Note that on 15 September, the IEA Governing Board, after reviewing its initial collective response action on the disrupted oil supplies in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, has decided to maintain its action of making available to the market 60 million barrels of oil and oil products for a period of thirty days.

From an all-time high of $59.18/bbl on 01 September, Dubai price softened, with this month’s average (Sept.1-23) now posting a slight $0.05 increase from the August average. However, gasoline and diesel posted average increases of $7.63/bbl and $5.48, respectively,for the same period.

For added oil price monitoring link, the public may refer to the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP) Websitehttp://www.aip.com.au/pricing , where MOPS information is made available, in charts, on a regular basis. In addition, charts with the dataused to produce the graphs are accessible at New Zealand’s Ministry of Economic Development Websitehttp://www.med.govt.nz/ers/oil_pet/prices/prices.html.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES. A P0.50 adjustment was effected by the

oil companies from 23-26 September, the 19

th

increase for gasolineand 18 th for diesel, with respective total net adjustments reaching P6.50/li and P8.48/li.

Nonetheless, the rates of increase in domestic oil prices remain lower than the rate of increase in international oil prices. Specifically, local prices of unleaded gasoline and diesel rose by 23% and 37%respectively in September from their December 2004 levelscompared to the 80% and 55% increase in their prices in theinternational market for the same period.

Further, the price of LPG has increased by P0.50/kg, translating to P5.50 per 11kg-cylinder due to the month-on-month increase inContract Price (CP) by US$36.20 per metric ton.

Domestic prices of gasoline and diesel in the country are lower compared with prices in other countries in Asia and Pacific regions.

Unleaded

Gasoline

Diesel

As of Sep 26, 2005 P 34.43 P 31.76

End of Aug 2005 P32.93 P30.76

End of Dec 2004 P 27.93 P 23.28

% Increase in 2005 23% 37%

For more information, call theDepartment of Energy:

Pricing: 840-2187 LPG: 840-2130 Fuels: 840-5669


COMPARATIVE PRICESSeptember 26, 2005

Pump Price in peso per liter Pump Price in peso per liter Unleaded Gasoline Diesel

Pump Price Pump Price


New Zealand 62.52 39.06




Philippines 34.43 31.76US (California) 44.60 46.89

7/29/2019 Oil Monitor 2005



WORLD OIL PRICES. World crude prices have fallen in the past two weeks since Katrina tore into U.S. Gulf refineries.OPEC President, Sheikh Ahmad al-Sabah, however, told reporters in Vienna that the price is still very high. He further stressed that the oil producers are trying its best to come up with a positive framework to reassure markets about supply, and to calm down prices

which have started to have a negative effect on economic growth.

The Ministers are discussing to raise output by 500,000 or 1 million barrels a day. However, some were reluctant to sanctionadditional crude when global refining is too stretched to process more. But a third option was gaining ground that would see production left unchanged with a vow to release spare capacity when the market can absorb it.

The impact of high retail gasoline prices combined with a sharp slowdown in Chinese demand growth and the knock-on effect of Katrina on U.S. economic activity would mean slower fuel demand growth. Thus, the International Energy Agency (IEA), adviser onenergy to 26 industrialized nations, recently sliced its forecast for world demand growth this year to 1.35 million bpd after 2.9 millionbpd of growth in 2004.

While the perception among some consumer countries is that OPEC has starved the world of crude, IEA figures show the cartel hascome close to matching the pace of demand growth, even before extra non-OPEC oil.

To date, crude oil price average posted a $0.02 decrease from the August average, while gasoline and diesel posted averageincreases of $9.42/bbl and $5.29, respectively, for the same period.

For added oil price monitoring link, the public may refer to the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP) Websitehttp://www.aip.com.au/pricing , where MOPS information is made available, in charts, on a regular basis.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES. The rates of increase in domestic oil prices remain lower than the rate of increase in international oil prices.

Specifically, local prices of unleaded gasoline and diesel rose by 20% and 34% respectively in September from their December 2004 levels compared to the 84% and 54% increase in their prices in the international market for the same period.

Further, the price of LPG has increased on 17-18 September by P0.50/kg, translating to P5.50 per 11kg-cylinder due to themonth-on-month increase in Contract Price (CP) by US$36.20 per metric ton.


UnleadedGasoline

Diesel

As of Sep 19, 2005 P 33.93 P 31.26

End of Aug 2005 P32.93 P30.76

End of Dec 2004P 27.93 P 23.28




C O M P A R A T I V E P R I C E SS e p t e m b e r 1 6 , 2 0 0 5

P u m p P r i c e in p e s o p e r l it e rP u m p P r i c e i n p e s o p e r l i t e r

Unleaded Gasoline Diesel

Pum p Price Pum p PriceHongkong 95.52 59.63






7/29/2019 Oil Monitor 2005



WORLD OIL PRICES. World oil prices had slowed energy use worldwide, with oil consumption in 2005 now forecasted toincrease at less than half the pace of last year, the International Energy Agency said last week.

This troubles the development for a group of countries that relies heavily on oil for national budgets. Though most economists

expect oil prices to stay above $60, OPEC worries that a drop in demand and the extra oil expected to come to the market fromNigeria and Azerbaijan next year could cause prices to fall. OPEC can do a little as the current fundamentals are being totally driven by the US refining bottleneck and the US deficit in gasoline.

The flood damage that shut several refiners in the US Gulf is hurting producers such as Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and, in particular,Mexico. The severe damage at four refineries east of New Orleans has already forced Mexico and Venezuela to turn their tankersaround. OPEC could hardly find alternative customers due to its heavy oil and the market is well supplied, in part becauseWashington and several European countries are releasing such supplies from their emergency stockpiles.

Unlike 1998 of Asian financial crisis, when oil prices dropped to $10 a barrel when the cartel removed excess oil from world marketsby enforcing a strict production quota, there is little it can do this time.

On the other hand, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) predicted that Economic growth in China and India will be higher thanexpected in coming months, but elsewhere in Asia the higher cost of oil will help slow growth, increase inflationary pressures and

restrain the accumulation of foreign reserves.

As a whole, Asia consumes over 20 per cent of the world's oil, but produces only 11 per cent of it, leaving the region vulnerable tothe effects of a nearly 75 per cent price rise this year.

To date, crude oil price average posted a $0.76 increase from the August average. Likewise gasoline and diesel posted averageincreases of $12.64/bbl and $6.98, respectively, for the same period.


DOMESTIC OIL PRICES. Local oil firms inched by another P0.50 per liter last weekend. This brings to a total of 18 increases and 4 decreases for gasoline and 17 increases and 1decrease for diesel. The P6.00 per liter net increase in the local price of gasoline this year, corresponding to 20%, is much lower compared to 92% increase in gasoline price in the international market over the same period. Meanwhile, the P8.00 per liter net increase for diesel, corresponding to 34%, is still lower than 57%increase in MOPS for 0.05% sulfur diesel.


UnleadedGasoline

Diesel

As o f Sep 12, 2005 P 33.43 P 31.26

End of Aug 2005 P32.93 P30.76

End of Dec 2004 P 27.93 P 23.28

% Increase in 2005 20% 34%

For more information, call theDepartment of Energy:Pricing: 840-2187

LPG: 840-2130 Fuels: 840-5669

SMS: (0915) 4469421

Email: [email protected] Website: http://www.doe.gov.ph

C O M P A R A T I V E P R I C E SS e p t e m b e r 1 2 , 2 0 0 5

P u m p P r i c e in p e s o p e r l i t e rP u m p P r ic e i n p e s o p e r l it e r

U n le a d e d G a so l in e D i e se l

P u m p P r ic e P u m p P r ic e

H o n g k o n g 9 5 .5 3 5 9 .6 4

N e w Ze a la n d 6 4 .0 1 4 0 .2 9

S in g a p o re 6 1 .6 8 4 0 .8 1

A u stra l i a 6 1 .4 1 5 7 .4 3

T h a i la n d 3 6 .8 8 3 2 .0 2

P h ilip p in e s 3 3 .9 3 3 1 .2 6U S (C a l i fo rn ia ) 4 5 .2 3 4 8 .1 0

7/29/2019 Oil Monitor 2005


OIL MONITOR As of August 31, 2005

WORLD OIL PRICES. World crude oil prices hit a new high as most oil and natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico shut down after Hurricane Katrina hit the region. WTI breached $70/bbl as it traded at daily high of $70.80/bbl on Aug 29, 2005.

The surge in oil prices followed a widespread shutdown of oil and gas facilities in the Gulf of Mexico, which pumps a quarter of US

oil and gas requirements. Note that the Gulf normally produces 1.5 mil b/d. Some damage was reported though the storm, one of the biggest in US history, eased before hitting the coast.

At its height, the storm forced eight refineries in south-east Louisiana to close, with two others having to reduce operations. Katrinahas already forced to shut down of an estimated one (1) million barrels of refining capacity and curbing offshore production.

OPEC secretary general Adnan Shihab-Eldin, however reiterated that the organization would supply extra barrels of crude oil torefiners if needed in the wake of the hurricane. However, previous such pledges from the oil cartel have done little to ease market fears over supply. He also said he backed a proposal by the OPEC president, Sheikh Ahmad al-Fahd al-Sabah, for the cartel toraise its output by 500,000 barrels per day at a meeting in September.

Market analysts warned that high oil costs would impact more on some Asian economies, which are already struggling amid exchange rate concerns and non-energy inflationary pressures. The reports followed similar warnings from the International Monetary Fund.

As of the date, crude oil price average posted a $3.67 increase from the July average. Likewise for gasoline and diesel, posting respective average increases by $7.81/bbl and $1.98 for the same period.


DOMESTIC OIL PRICES. Local oil firms inched by another P0.50 per liter last weekend. This brings to a total of 16 increases and 4decreases for gasoline and 16 increases and 1 decrease for diesel.

The P5.00 per liter net increase in the local price of gasoline this year corresponding to 18% is much lower compared to 62% increase ingasoline price in the international market over the same period.

Meanwhile, the P7.50 per liter net increase for diesel corresponding to 32% is still lower than 43% increase in MOPS for 0.05% sulfur diesel.


UnleadedGasoline

Diesel

Aug ust 31, 2005 P 32.93 P 30.76

End of July 2005 P31.93 P29.76

End of December 2004

P 27.93 P 23.2

% Increase in 2005 18% 32


Fuels: 840-5669


COMPARATIV E PRICES

August 30, 2005

Pump Price in peso per liter

Unleaded Gasoline DieselPump Price Pump Price







COMPARATIV E PRICES

August 30, 2005

Pump Price in peso per liter

Unleaded Gasoline DieselPump Price Pump Price







7/29/2019 Oil Monitor 2005



WORLD OIL PRICES. World crude oil prices spiked to new record highs Friday, as the market worries about anaccident-prone refining system, the threat of another potentially disruptive storm heading towards the US East coast and an intransigent position by OPEC oil giant Iran over its nuclear position to resume its uranium-conversion activities.

The National Hurricane Center five-day forecast estimated that Tropical Storm Irene, which strengthened Friday near the East Coast, could approach the coastline between North Carolina and Massachusetts. Gasoline demand, currently at its peak in the U.S. summer driving season, was also pushing crude’s gains. In the past week, US gasoline demand picked up by 1.4 percent relative to last year, according to government data.

Analysts said that there is a mismatch between oil supply and demand, especially in refining capacity, that would takeseveral years to resolve. Amid the strong global demand, limited supply as well as fears of terrorist strikes in producer countries has increased oil prices by 46 percent higher than a year ago.

Market analysts however, aver that “hedge funds continue to roll over their large energy investments from September toOctober, and many are predicting prices of $65 to $70 a barrel as they take more length”.

As of the date, crude oil price average posted a $2.74 increase from the July average. Gasoline average for the same period is higher by a hefty $5.28/bbl higher than the past month. Meanwhile, diesel price is still higher than gasoline, but it is worth noting that its price increases in the first nine trading days of August, and the magnitude has not been as largeas that for gasoline.

For added oil price monitoring link, the public may refer to the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP) Website

http://www.aip.com.au/pricing , where MOPS information is made available, in charts, on a regular basis.

Source: Platts

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES. Despite the adjustmentsby local oil firms last weekend by P0.50, the rate of increase in domestic oil prices have is still lower thanthe rate of increase in international oil prices.

Specifically, local prices of unleaded gasoline and diesel rose by 16% and 30% respectively in July fromtheir December 2004 levels compared to the 56% and

38% increase in their prices in the international market for the same period.

Average Pump Price in Peso per Liter

UnleadedGasoline

Diesel

August 15, 2005 P 32.43 P 30.26

End of Jul y 2005 P31.93 P29.76

End of December 2004 P 27.93 P 23.28

% Increase in 2005 16% 30%


Fuels: 840-5669


7/29/2019 Oil Monitor 2005



WORLD OIL PRICES. World oil prices on Thursday broke their fourth consecutive nominal record for the week because of uncertainty on all fronts and low spare production capacity in OPEC.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) continued that the estimated world oil consumption would rise by 1.6m b/d to83.7m b/d this year and further accelerate to 1.8m b/d next year.

Supply concerns were compounded by the IEA cutting its projections for non-OPEC supply growth, with its supply now expected to rise by 1.25-mil b/d in 2006, 160,000 b/d less than July forecast. However, it reported that world oil production rose to 84.7-mil b/d in July, 250,000 more than June, as higher OPEC output more than offset unscheduled output outages in OECD countries resulting from the Gulf Mexico shutdowns due to hurricane activities.

On the other hand, OPEC noted that the latest increase has been triggered by a series of refinery outages that haveaggravated downstream bottlenecks in key consuming regions, along with increasing geo-political tensions. However, it reiterates commitment to maintain market stability with reasonable prices compatible with robust economic growth, particularly in the emerging economies of the developing world.

As of the date, crude oil price average posted a $2.46 increase from the July average. Likewise, gasoline average for the same period is $4.87/bbl higher than the past month. Meanwhile, diesel price is still higher than gasoline, but it isworth noting that its price increases in the first nine trading days of August has not been as large as that for gasoline.


http://www.aip.com.au/pricing , where MOPS information is made available, in charts, on a regular basis.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES. Despite the adjustmentsby local oil firms last 06 August, the rate of increase indomestic oil prices have is still lower than the rate of increase in international oil prices.

Specifically, local prices of unleaded gasoline and diesel rose by 14% and 28% respectively in July fromtheir December 2004 levels compared to the 44% and 39% increase in their prices in the international market for the same period.


UnleadedGasoline

Diesel

August 11, 2005 P 31.93 P 29.76

End of Jul y 2005 P31.93 P29.76

End of June 2005 P 30.43 P 28.76





7/29/2019 Oil Monitor 2005



WORLD OIL PRICES. Asian sour benchmark Dubai started the month firmly, hitting an all-time high of $55.58/bbl on 03 August. As of 08 August, its index average price is $2.05 higher than the July average. OPEC noted that refinery upgrading capacity constraints are worldwide phenomenon which inhibits the use of incremental heavy sour crudecoming out of the Middle East. WTI and Brent, the benchmark price for crude oil in US and Europe, respectively, werealso at peak on 08 August, at $63.86/bbl and $62.67/bbl corresponding levels. The degree of uncertainty about prospects for demand for the rest of the year and global refining capacity are the factors in the price run-up. Analystsalso pointed to refinery problems in Asia and the US as the cause for spike in global oil benchmark prices. They deemthat oil prices will tend to rise as long as the rate of growth in the US and China remains high.

Yardstick price of unleaded gasoline peaked on 08 August at $71.10/bbl. As of the date, its average is $3.91/bbl higher than the past month. Market analysts pointed to aggressive fresh-buying on gasoline and kerosene futures contracts by investment funds, brokers, and individual investors.

Meanwhile, for a diesel-dependent economy, the good news is that diesel increases this month has not been as pronounced as gasoline’s. While still priced higher than gasoline, the average in the first six trading days of the month is$69.11/bbl, lower than the registered peak average index price at $71.38/bbl in July. Note however, that June averagewas also high at $71.32/bbl.

Overall, the market has reacted to continuing refinery concerns in addition to the instability in Saudi Arabia after thethreats of terrorism. OPEC avers that fundamentals, geopolitics and speculators are combining together to determinethe prices of the market.


http://www.aip.com.au/pricing , where MOPS information is made available on a regular basis (albeit in A$, andin charts, not specific prices).

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES. Despite the adjustmentsby local oil firms last 06 August, the rate of increase indomestic oil prices is still lower than the rate of increase in international oil prices.

Specifically, local prices of unleaded gasoline and diesel rose by 14% and 28% respectively in July fromtheir December 2004 levels compared to the 44% and

39% increase in their prices in the international market for the same period.

Further, price of LPG has increased in 06 August by P0.50/kg, translating to P5.50 per 11kg-cylinder.


UnleadedGasoline

Diesel

August 6, 2005 P 31.93 P 29.76

End of Jul y 2005 P31.93 P29.76

End of June 2005 P 30.43 P 28.76


% Increase in 2005 14% 28%



7/29/2019 Oil Monitor 2005



WORLD OIL PRICES. World oil prices rose on Friday to their highest level in more than two weeks as refinery firesin the United States and India underscored concern about tight refinery capacity and the market's sensitivity to any outages. The disruption at the British Petroleum’s 460,000-bpd refinery located in Texas, coincided with a fireat Murphy Oil's 110,000-bpd refinery in Louisiana.

Likewise, the crude oil production of India's Oil and Natural Gas Corp. (ONGC), the country's most valuable firm, fell 6.85 percent on Friday after a fire destroyed a deepwater platform that produces a sixth of the nation's oil. Other state-run oil refiners in India also fell. However, the Oil Minister, Mani Shankar Aiyar, stressed that ONGC is expected torestore about 70 percent of the platform's 110,000 barrels per day output within a month.

Dealers in Asia noted that soaring oil prices were starting to undercut demand in Asia, forcing refiners to reduceoperations. A company source of South Korean oil refiner SK Corp. stated that the company will cut its planned crude processing rate for August by four percent due to weak refining margins, following the lead of Chinese and Japaneserivals.

In Japan, top refiner Nippon Oil Corp. said it would keep running at reduced rates in August of 974,000 bpd, seven percent less than a year ago and well below its 1.2 million-barrels per calendar day capacity.

Moreover, Reuters poll of more than 100 analysts on Thursday showed that with the notable exception of India and China, who are expanding more quickly than expected, high fuel prices and sluggish exports were hurting growth in Asia.

Dubai crude oil price average for July increased by $1.75/bbl compared to the June average. Likewise, gasoline and diesel average increased by $5.05/bbl and $0.06/bbl, respectively, compared to the June average prices.

Thus, July prices remain higher than the previous month. For the trend in MOPS prices, you can refer towww.aip.com.au (website of Australian Institute of Petroleum).

Source: Platts and Reuters News

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES. Despite the upward adjustments over the weekend by local oil firms,domestic oil prices have increased at a lower ratethan international oil prices.

Local prices of unleaded gasoline and diesel rose by 14% and 28% respectively in July from their December 2004 levels compared to the 37% and 51% increase in prices in the international market for the same period.

Average Pump Pr ice in Peso per Li ter

UnleadedGasoline

Diesel

August 01, 2005 P 31.93 P 29.76

End of Jul y 2005 P31.93 P29.76

End of June 2005 P 30.43 P28.76


% Increase in 2005 14% 28%

7/29/2019 Oil Monitor 2005


OIL MONITOR As of July 14, 2005

WORLD OIL PRICES. World oil prices are predicted to stay high in a world of uncertainty over tropical storms in theCaribbean, geopolitical factors in the Middle East and the London bombings as the International Energy Agency (IEA)reported.

IEA, in its monthly Oil Market Report revised down its estimate of 2005 global oil demand to 83.88 million barrels per day from 84.30 million bpd forecast a month ago.

World oil production fell to 84.6mil b/d in June, a decrease of 155,000 b/d from May largely due to maintenance-led output reductions in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) producer countries. In Junenon-OPEC supply fell by 115,000 b/d to 50.58mil b/d with a 125,000 b/d increase from non-OECD producers Russia, Africa and Asia. This failed to offset the 240,000 b/d slide in OECD output, mainly due to seasonal maintenance inNorway and Alaska.

OPEC crude output declined by 60,000 b/d in June to 29.3mil b/d compared to May figures.

Crude oil price average as of July 13 increased by $3.50/bbl compared to the June average. Likewise, gasoline and diesel average increased by $4.51/bbl and $3.23/bbl, respectively, compared to the June average prices.

Thus, July prices remain higher than the previous month.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES. Domestic prices of gasoline and diesel in the country are lower compared with prices in other countries in Asia and Pacific regions.



C O M P A R A T I V E P R I C E SJ u ly 1 3 , 2 0 0 5

P u m p P r i c e in p e s o p e r l it e rP u m p P r ic e i n p e s o p e r li te r

Unle ade d Ga solin e D ie se l

P um p P rice P um p P rice

Hon gkon g 91 .28 58.30

Ne w Ze a la nd 54 .63 36.15

Sing a pore 53 .74 37.29

Austra lia 52 .17 53.53

Tha ila nd 34 .08 29.30

Philippines 30.93 29.26

US (Ca liforn ia ) 37 .39 38.34

7/29/2019 Oil Monitor 2005



WORLD OIL PRICES. World oil prices back-off even as oil companies began shutting production in the Gulf of Mexico due to tropical depression Dennis. Speculators said that the storm's effect on gas and oil productionwould be minimal and that it would bypass the heart of the refining industry along the Gulf coast.

However, oil experts agree that volatile oil prices may stay at least for a year or two, which reasons are morethan transitory situations like hurricanes. It is partly because world oil demand is growing faster than oil production, financial speculators are gaming the markets, and partly because nobody knows just how much oil is available, even in Saudi Arabia.

Crude oil price average as of July 8 increased by $2.97/bbl compared to the June average. Likewise,gasoline and diesel average increased by $4.49/bbl and $3.67/bbl, respectively, compared to its June average prices.


DOMESTIC OIL PRICES. Local oil companies increased prices by an average of P0.50 on all products. The price increase of Shell, Caltex, Total, Eastern, Unioil took effect

last Saturday, July 9, while Petron and the other players increased the following days.

To date, local prices of unleaded gasoline and diesel rose by 11% and 26%, respectively, fromtheir December 2004 levels compared to the43% and 46% increase in prices in theinternational market for the same period.

UnleadedGasoline

Diesel

July 11, 2005 P 30.93 P 29.26

End of June 2005 P30.43 P28.76

End of May 2005 P 28.93 P 27.26


% Increase in 2005 11% 26%



7/29/2019 Oil Monitor 2005



WORLD OIL PRICES. World oil prices peaked anew as traders became nervous after reports of the Londonexplosions came to light. As was the case after the 9/11 attacks when the crude market crashed, the explosions in

London has done the same to the market in the morning after the bombings.

Oil prices also skyrocketed as tropical storm Cindy shut refinery units in the U.S., compounding worries over refiners’ ability to bolster pre-winter fuel supplies. It was reported that U.S. crude rose as high as $61.35 per barrel, the highest price for oil futures since they began trading in the early 1980s.

Oil traders also eyed Tropical Storm Dennis in the Caribbean which the National Hurricane Center said could strengtheninto a hurricane that could hit oilfields in the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. The U.S. Minerals Management Servicereported that Cindy has caused the closure of some 13% of the country’s regular daily oil production in the Gulf, which ishome to a quarter of U.S. oil and gas output.

Oil prices have been escalating for weeks as investors worry about the ability of energy supplies to meet rising global demand. Energy economists point that not only is production is at risk, but the capability to unload imports from tankers

could be hampered by strong storms.

Diesel price as of July 7 made a record high of $77.04/bbl, a big $3.49 leap from the April peak of $73.55/bbl, and $1.76 higher than yesterday’s $75.28/bbl peak. Likewise, Dubai spot price broke yesterday’s record high of $54.67/bbl at $55.5/bbl.

As of the date, crude oil price average posted a $2.68 increase from the June average. Similarly, gasoline and diesel average in the same period are $4.02/bbl and $3.42/bbl respectively, relative to their June average levels.

July prices, therefore, still remain higher than the previous month.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES. Despite the adjustmentsby local oil firms, domestic oil prices have increased at a lower rate than international oil prices.

Local prices of unleaded gasoline and diesel rose by 9% and 24% respectively in June from their December 2004 levels compared to the 33% and 39% increase in prices in the international market for the same period.


UnleadedGasoline

Diesel

July 08, 2005 P 30.43 P 28.76

End of June 2005 P30.43 P28.76

End of May 2005 P 28.93 P 27.26


% Increase in 2005 9% 24%



7/29/2019 Oil Monitor 2005



WORLD OIL PRICES. World oil prices further increased amid worries on rising demand for oil, as Tropical Storm Cindy caused refinery units disruptions in the United States.

Oil traders also eyed Tropical Storm Dennis, heading toward Jamaica, which the National Hurricane Center inMiami expected to intensify into a hurricane that could hit oilfields in the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend.

According to Stanley Morgan, as oil grows more expensive, it seems that only a visible weakening of theglobal economy, with tangible evidence that demand for oil products is slowing, would convince market participants to sell.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) last week suspended talk of increasing production by a further 500,000 bpd on top of an increase that came into effect on July 1, 2005.

Diesel price yesterday, July 6, made a record high of $75.28/bbl, now $1.73/bbl higher than the April peak of

$73.55/bbl. The April peak was actually surpassed three (3) times in June, and also on July 5 at $74.41/bbl.Meanwhile, Dubai again broke its April 4 record high of $50.30/bbl yesterday July 6 at $54.67/bbl.

Crude oil price average to date increased by $1.04/bbl compared to the June average. Likewise, gasoline and diesel average to date increased by $3.34/bbl and $2.85/bbl respectively, compared to its June average prices.


DOMESTIC OIL PRICES. Despite theadjustments by local oil firms, domestic oil priceshave increased at a lower rate than international oil prices.

Local prices of unleaded gasoline and diesel roseby 9% and 24% respectively in June from their December 2004 levels compared to the 33% and 39% increase in prices in the international market for the same period.


UnleadedGasoline

Diesel

July 07, 2005 P 30.43 P 28.76

End of June 2005 P30.43 P28.76

End of May 2005 P 28.93 P 27.26





7/29/2019 Oil Monitor 2005



WORLD OIL PRICES. World oil prices softened in May after reaching new record highs in April. However, oil priceshave since been heading higher amid worries on rising demand for oil and insufficient supply to meet the winter'sheating demand in the fourth quarter. This is also despite OPEC increasing its oil supply by 500,000 barrels per day starting July 1, 2005.

Diesel price yesterday, July 5, made a new record high of $74.41/bbl, now $0.86/bbl higher than the April peak of $73.55/bbl. The April peak was actually surpassed three (3) times in June, and also on July 4 at $74.35/bbl.Meanwhile, Dubai also broke its April 4 record high of $50.30/bbl last June 28 at $54.02/bbl.

OPEC cartel has blamed global refinery bottlenecks rather than a lack of crude for high prices, while some oil analystsblamed voracious energy demand by the United States and China as a key reason behind recent sky-high oil prices.

Texan oil analyst warned that oil prices could rocket to $100 within six months, plunging the world into anunprecedented fuel crisis, the biggest crisis we have ever had of demand exceeding supply.

Economist Intelligence Unit, however, predicts that oil prices will peak by the end of this year, and decline by 10% in2006 as the Chinese economy slows, reducing demand.

Crude oil price average to date increased by $1.80/bbl compared to the June average. Likewise, gasoline and diesel

average to date increased by $2.92/bbl and $2.47/bbl respectively, compared to its June average prices.


Source: Platts

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES. Despite the adjustmentsby local oil firms, domestic oil prices have increased at a lower rate than international oil prices.

Local prices of unleaded gasoline and diesel rose by 9% and 24% respectively in June from their December 2004 levels compared to the 33% and 39% increase in prices in the international market for the same period.


UnleadedGasoline

Diesel

July 06, 2005 P 30.43 P 28.76

End of June 2005 P30.43 P28.76

End of May 2005 P 28.93 P 27.26




Fuels: 840-5669


3 0

3 5

4 0

4 5

5 0

5 5

6 0

6 5

7 0

7 5

$ / b b l

D e c e m b e r 2 0 0 4 – J u l y 2 0 0 5

D i e s e l J u l y - $ 7 3 . 7 9

( + 4 3 .8 % f r o m D e c .( + 4 3 .8 % f r o m D e c . a v ea v e . ). )

U L G J u l y - $ 6 2 .5 7

( + 3 9 .6 % f r o m D e c .( + 3 9 .6 % f r o m D e c . a v ea v e . ). )

D u b a i J u l y - $ 5 2 . 8 8

( + 5 4 .6 % f ro m D e c .( + 5 4 .6 % f ro m D e c . a v ea v e . ).)

I N T E R N A T I O N A L P R I C E S ( F O B )

D e c - 0 5 J a n - 0 5 F e b - 0 5 M a r - 0 5 A p r - 0 5 M a y - 0 5 J u n - 0 5 J u l -0 5

7/29/2019 Oil Monitor 2005


OIL MONITOR As of June 30, 2005

I. Republic Act. No. 9337, known as the “Value Added Tax Reform Act” lifts the VAT exemption on petroleum products effective July 1, 2005.

With the imposition of said law, the government has provided mitigating measures to lessen its impact on the prices of petroleum products, such as:

A. Reduction of excise taxes

Product Reduction Resulting Excise Tax

Diesel 1.63 0.00

Kerosene 0.60 0.00

Regular Gasoline 0.45 4.35

Bunker 0.30 0.00

B. Reduction of tariff duty on crude and refined products from 5% to 3% and on LPG from 3% to 0% per Executive Order No. 440, signed by the President on June 29, 2005.

For illustration purposes, using the pump prices of June 27, 2005 as base, we deduct the impact of mitigation measures (i.e. reduced tariff and excise taxes) to get the new pump price to be imposed with10% VAT.

II. While the real price of diesel is higher due to high import parity, other countries provide subsidies tolower the price of diesel. However, the country’s price spread between diesel and gasoline isnarrowing.

Below is a comparison of gasoline and diesel prices in Asia and Pacific regions.

Comparative Prices (in Peso Per liter) As of June 30, 2005

CountryUnleaded Gasoline

Pump PriceDiesel

Pump Price






Philippines 30.43 28.76

US (California) 35.75 37.38


Fuels: 840-5669


Pump Price New 10% VAT Final Nominal % Increase

27-Jun-05 Excise Tariff PP Pump Price Increase

a b c d=a-(b+c) e = (d*10%) f = d+e g = f-a h=g/a

Unleaded 30.43 0.00 (0.40) 30.03 3.00 33.03 2.60 8.6%

Regular 29.44 (0.45) (0.40) 28.59 2.86 31.45 2.01 6.8%

Diesel 28.95 (1.63) (0.50) 26.82 2.68 29.50 0.55 1.9%

Kerosene 29.39 (0.60) (0.50) 28.29 2.83 31.12 1.73 5.9%

Bunker 18.68 (0.30) (0.29) 18.09 1.81 19.90 1.22 6.5%

LPG (P/cylinder) 387.00 0.00 (8.03) 378.97 37.90 416.87 29.87 7.7%

Mitigation

7/29/2019 Oil Monitor 2005



WORLD OIL PRICES. Prices of oil in the international market started to increase in the last week

of May due to tight refining capacity (some refinery problems – programmed and unexpected shutdowns).

Crude oil price rose from $44.97/bbl on May 25 to $49.98/bbl on June 6. Likewise, the price of unleaded gasoline rose from $52.39/bbl on May 24 to $58.03/bbl on June 6 and automotive diesel from $59.91/bbl on May 19 to $70.27/bbl on June 7.

The June average prices remain higher than the previous month.

Meanwhile, the monthly contract price of LPG moved down to $395/MT in June from $422/MT inMay 2005.

The country’s oil requirements for the first quarter of 2005 went down to 309 thousand barrels per day (MBCD) from the 2004 average of 320 MBCD.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES. Despite theadjustments by local oil firms, domestic oil prices have increased at a lower rate thaninternational oil prices.

Local prices of unleaded gasoline and

diesel rose by 5% and 19% respectively inJune from their December 2004 levelscompared to the 27% and 33% increase in prices in the international market for thesame period.

Below is a comparison of the prices in the Asia and Pacific regions.

Comparative Prices* As of June 9, 2005

CountryUnleaded Gasoline

Pump PriceDiesel

Pump Price


Australia 48.17 48.75 Thailand 30.34 25.15

Philippines 29.43 27.76 US (California) 34.16 35.04

*in Peso Per liter

Average Pump Price in Peso per Li ter

UnleadedGasoline

Diesel

June 9, 2005 P 29.43 P 27.76

End of May 2005 P 28.93 P 27.26 End of December 2004 P 27.93 P 23.28




7/29/2019 Oil Monitor 2005



WORLD OIL PRICES. Prices of oil in the international market started to increase in the last week

of May due to tight refining capacity (some refinery problems – programmed and unexpected shutdowns).

Crude oil price rose from $44.97/bbl on May 25 to $49.98/bbl on June 6. Likewise, the price of unleaded gasoline rose from $52.39/bbl on May 24 to $58.03/bbl on June 6 and automotive diesel from $59.91/bbl on May 19 to $70.27/bbl on June 7.

The June average prices remain higher than the previous month.

Meanwhile, the monthly contract price of LPG moved down to $395/MT in June from $422/MT inMay 2005.

The country’s oil requirements for the first quarter of 2005 went down to 309 thousand barrels per day (MBCD) from the 2004 average of 320 MBCD.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES. Despite theadjustments by local oil firms, domestic oil prices have increased at a lower rate thaninternational oil prices.

Local prices of unleaded gasoline and

diesel rose by 4% and 17% respectively inJune from their December 2004 levelscompared to the 27% and 32% increase in prices at the international market for thesame period.

Average Pump Price in Peso per Li ter

UnleadedGasoline

Diesel

June 8, 2005 P 28.93 P 27.26

End of May 2005 P 28.93 P 27.26 End of December 2004 P 27.93 P 23.28

% Increase fromDecember 2004

4% 17%


Fuels: 840-5669


Oil Monitor 2005

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Transcript of Oil Monitor 2005