Oil Investment

9/2/2016

Steps for my oil portfolio Investment:( September)

1. US Dollar Index: The US census bureau released data which showed factory orders increased by 1.9% (below the forecast level of 2%). US labor department said economy added 151,000 jobs in august (below the expectation of 180,000) and US unemployment rate remain unchanged at 4.9% for this month. It increases the dollar index by +0.20% (95.85 +0.19) before the stock market open.

2. Weekly petroleum Status report(EIA): It releases weekly rig count on every Wednesday at 8:30 am (M.T.) US crude oil refinery input (8/31/2016) = 16.6mb/d (-64,000 b/d from previous week)US crude import (8/31/2016) = 8.9mb/d (+ 275,000 b/d from previous week) US Commercial crude inventories (8/31/2016) = 525.9 mb (+ 2.3 mb from previous week) Baker and Hughes weekly rig count:It releases weekly rig count on every Friday. Last US count (9/2/2016) = 497 (+8 from previous week)Last International Count (9/2/2016) = 938 (+11 from previous week)

3. OPEC Monthly oil market report:OPEC will release its report on 12th September 2016.According to Last report: Saudi Arabia increased its oil production by 1.17% in July (From 10.55mb/d to 10.673 mb/d). OPEC nations raised its output by 0.14% in July (from 33.059 mb/d to 33.106 mb/d) which is historically high level of production.

4. Others Daily Geo-Political events and Fed reports: Baker and Hughes released its report stating US oil companies added 8 more rigs compared to past week though oil price is declining. Apart from that, Russian president Putin said he would like to reach a deal with OPEC to freeze the crude oil production at the G-20 summit in china next week. Previously, Saudi oil minister said his country will cooperate to freeze oil production with OPEC and others members when OPEC members are scheduled to meet in Algeria.

My Assumption before US stock market open: of course, all the fundaments such as dollar index, inventory level, rig count, glut in demand and OPEC highest level of production suggest that the oil price will go down. But when Russian president Putin said he is willing to cooperate with others members of the OPEC to freeze the production, I believe at least oil price will move up for one day. so I decided to buy some oil companies stocks as soon as market open.

Investment: Bought 1,000 stocks of approach resources(AREX) @ 3.489 and sold @3.6001. Profit in a single day= 3.184% (I bought stock as soon as market open, but is was already traded 3% up within a fraction of second so I couldn’t make maximum gain. I immediately sold the stock because the next day price of oil depends upon the others new market information rather than fundamentals)

US Stock after Market Close:

Stocks: RSPP 29.53(1.10%) AREX 3.56(5.33%) CPE 14.96(2.05%) PXD 183.71(1.94%) PE 34.86(1.66%) ETFS: XLE 69.08(1.13%) USO 10.23(1.69%)Brent Crude Price: $46.62(2.57%)

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9/6/2016

1. US Dollar Index: The institute of supply management said US Non-manufacturing PMI fell to 51.4 in August from 55.5 in July and it is a weakest pace since January. Although, index above 50 suggest that the non-manufacturing sector is generally expanding. The dollar index traded at 95.17 compared to 95.62 prior to trading caused by slower pace in growth of non-manufacturing PMI than expected.

2. Weekly petroleum Status report(EIA): EIA will release its next inventory report on 9/8/2016 at 10:30 am E.T. Last week US already added 2.3mb of oil in its inventory So it barely affects today oil price. (+ 2.3 mb from previous week)

3. Baker and Hughes weekly rig count:It releases next rig count 9/9/2016. (938 (+8 from previous week)

4. OPEC Monthly oil market report:OPEC will release its monthly report on 9/12/2016. This is one of the major event for the future oil price movement. Although Saudi Arabia said it will freeze oil production to stabilize price, the actual OPEC and Saudi Production will be known on this date.

5. Others Daily Geo-Political events and Fed reports: The US dollar lost its value compared to others currency due to low Non-manufacturing PMI than expected So dollar index was down in trading hour. Prior to this, Russia and Saudi Arabia oil ministers announced a joint statement that committed to discuss measure to help the oil market. Furthermore, earthquake stock in Oklahoma on Saturday causing national attention to the link between oil and gas drilling and earthquake. Officials took steps to shut down 37 of the state 3,200 active disposal wells.

My Assumption before US stock market open: After the statement from Saudi Arabia and Russia, who will be ready to join an agreement among others major oil producers to freeze the output, the price of crude oil will increase for short period of time. Due to labor day, the US stock market was closed on Monday. Before the trading period on Tuesday, two counties only made formal meeting to freeze oil production but failed to established concrete steps to limit the oil production that include any specific measures to boost oil prices. Immediately, Iran’s oil minister said country will bounce back up to 4 mb/d after 2 to 3 months and he didn’t say whether he would participate in a coordinated effort to freeze production. Although the market sentiment is higher oil price in today session, I assume the oil price will trade lower today than prior day because both countries didn’t have any fixed steps to freeze production rather only verbal agreement. In addition to this, I assume today the energy sector stocks will trade just below of prior day.

US Stock after Market Close:

Stocks: RSPP 39.84(+0.78%), AREX 3.9(+9.55%), CPE15.30(+2.27%), PXD 183.5(-0.11%), PE 34.77(-0.26)ETFS: XLE 70.12(1.51%), USO 10.38(1.37%) Brent Crude Price: 47.30(0.21%) After stock market close

End of the day: I believe, continuing expectation of investors that major oil producers will reach in concreate agreement helped to raise the price of oil a bit higher during the day.

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9/7/2016

1 US Dollar Index: The Us dollar index (DXY) closed 1% down yesterday and raised concern whether Fed will increase interest rate. Today’s opening, dollar remain moderately higher than other currency but gains were limited because of yesterday Non-manufacturing data downbeat expectations. But dollar may gain momentum after Thursday after a speculation that European Union may increase easing measure to boost growth.

2 Weekly petroleum Status report(EIA): EIA will release its next inventory report on 9/8/2016 at 10:30 am E.T. Last week US already added 2.3mb of oil in its inventory So it barely affects today oil price. (+ 2.3 mb from previous week)

3 Baker and Hughes weekly rig count:It releases next rig count 9/9/2016. (938 (+8 from previous week)

4 OPEC Monthly oil market report:OPEC will release its monthly report on 9/12/2016. This is one of the major event for the future oil price movement. Although Saudi Arabia said it will freeze oil production to stabilize price, the actual OPEC and Saudi Production will be known on this date.

5 Others Daily Geo-Political events and Fed reports: There is doubt that federal reserve will raise interest rates as early as this month because of weak U.S. economic data. The probability of Fed hiking interest rate this month dropped by eight percentage points to 24% in future market on Tuesday. So it looks unlikely that dollar will have downside impact on oil prices on coming days. Oil rose before trading hour after the Iran’s president said he supports efforts to stabilize oil prices after Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to revive oil market. President Hassan Rouhani said Iran will support efforts to bring about fair prices and also said Iran will restore production lost during years of sanctions.

My Assumption before US stock market open: Iran hinted that it may soon drop its opposition to anti production freeze, with oil production is reaching its pre-sanctions level. Iran is pumping 3.8 mb/d, approaching its daily target of 4 mb/d in coming months. The Brent market is already trading at higher before US Stock market opening time because everyone is expecting that there will be production freeze after President of Iran made a statement. So I assume the oil price will again jump today and so do energy stocks.

Investment Bought 900 stocks of Eclipse resources (ECR) @ 3.64. I tried to sell the stock when it was trading 4% above the opening price but couldn’t sell it because I purchased stock with unsettled fund so I have to hold stock until tomorrow. But stock was up by 4.19% (Unrealized profit) at closing bell.After US Stock Market Close: Stocks: RSPP 39.92(+0.20%), AREX 4.12(+5.64%), CPE 15.46(+1.05%), PXD 188.31(+2.62%), PE 34.43(-0.98%)ETFS: XLE 70.52(0.57%), USO 10.52(1.25%) Brent Crude Price: 47.30(1.29%) After stock market close

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End of the day: Oil market was raised by commitment of Iranian president during the first couple of hours and later on news came out that Nigeria’s crude oil production fell (130,000 bpd) for 2nd straight consecutive month and reaches to 1.4mb/d in August compared to previous month which caused further increase in oil price in later trading hour.

9/8/2016

1 US Dollar Index: The US dollar index (DXY) pushed lower against other major currency on Thursday morning, even after data showed that the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in U.S. last week fell to six-year low. U.S. department of labor said initial jobs claim in the week ending September 3 decreased by 4,000 to 259,000 from previous week’s total of 263,000. Analyst expected jobless claims to rise by 2,000 to 265,000 last week. Furthermore, European Union did not change its monetary policy program as economy growth forecasted to decline in 2017 and 2018.

2 Weekly petroleum Status report(EIA): Today at 9:30 am (Albuquerque time) EIA will release its weekly petroleum inventory data. Today oil price will move either up or down on the basis of increasing or decreasing inventory level. (+ 2.3 mb from previous week)

3 Baker and Hughes weekly rig count:It releases next rig count 9/9/2016. (938 (+8 from previous week)

4 OPEC Monthly oil market report:OPEC will release its monthly report on 9/12/2016. This is one of the major event for the future oil price movement. Although Saudi Arabia said it will freeze oil production to stabilize price, the actual OPEC and Saudi Production will be known on this date.

5 Others Daily Geo-Political events and Fed reports: News came out early hour that China oil imports rebound and coal shipments highest since 2014. China crude import increased highest level in four months while coal shipments jumps highest since 2014. China imported 32.86mb/d in August, which is increased by 7.77mb/d, fastest pace since April. There is also sharp drop in inventory level by 5.7% in July from previous month suggesting that its manufacturing activities are rebounding. Furthermore, Oklahoma drillers are being ordered to shut down more fracking wastewater wells just as the US geological survey is updating last weekend’s earthquake to a record magnitude.

My Assumption before US stock market open: Today, stock will trade higher in the morning as soon as market open and will fall down before the oil inventory announcement time. Because of strong demand from china many investors bought stock at pre-trading hour period. So I will sale my stock that I couldn’t sell yesterday at first hour of trading and I will buy stocks immediately if there is a decrease in inventory level and do nothing if inventory level increases.

Investment

Sold 900 stocks of Eclipse resources (ECR) @ 3.7407. Profit = 4.69% for 2 day holding period.

Bought 100 stocks of approach resources (AREX) @ 4.0499

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After US Stock Market Close: Stocks: RSPP 39.84(0.20%), AREX 4.01(2.67%), CPE 15.54(0.52%), PXD 187.51(0.42%), PE 34.83(1.16%)ETFS: XLE 71.84(1.87%), USO 10.96(4.13%) Brent Crude Price: 49.46(3.35%) After stock market close

End of the day: EIA announced unexpected decrease in oil inventory. Oil inventory was decreased by 14.5 mb verse expectations for a 425,000-barrel increase. It helped to increase the energy stocks along with price of crude oil. The market was down before the announcement. The approach resource was trading 5% down before the report. I invested in AREX stock as soon as I saw decreased inventory level, but within a fraction of second the stock was already up by 3% so I couldn’t make maximum gain. Today all Permian Basin oil stocks underperform so I didn’t sell my stock expecting that tomorrow stock will again move up if others things remain constant. Furthermore, I didn’t invest in USO because I believed that hedge fund managers won’t invest large amount in oil futures.

9/9/2016

1. US Dollar Index: The dollar remained weaker early in the morning and trading lower than other currency amid ongoing uncertainty over the timing of the interest rate hike from the federal reserve. Furthermore, Beijing reported that Chinese CPI rose 1.3% in August from year earlier, weakest pace almost in a year but inflation trend added that economy is stabilizing. Moreover, China’s PPI dropped 0.8% in august from year earlier, slowest pace since august since 2012, easing pressure on Peoples Bank of china to step up with easing program.

2. Weekly petroleum Status report(EIA): EIA will release its next inventory report on 9/14/2016 at 10:30 am E.T. Yesterday, US decreased 14.5mb of oil in its inventory. (-14.5 mb from previous week) US crude oil refinery input (9/08/2016) = 16.9mb/d (+315,000 b/d from previous week)US crude import (9/08/2016) = 7.1mb/d (-1.8mb/d from previous week) US Commercial crude inventories (9/08/2016) = 511.4mb (-14.5 mb from previous week)

3. Baker and Hughes weekly rig count:Baker and Hughes will release weekly rig count today. (+8 from previous week)

4. OPEC Monthly oil market report:OPEC will release its monthly report on 9/12/2016. This is one of the major event for the future oil price movement. Although Saudi Arabia said it will freeze oil production to stabilize price, the actual OPEC and Saudi Production will be known on this date.

5. Others Daily Geo-Political events and Fed reports: European and Asian stock market were traded lower amid of disappointment over the ECB’s decision not to ease the policy further on Thursday’s meeting. Traders in US waited comments from the Fed speakers for further guidance on the timing of next interest rate hike. Dollar traded lower, as no major U.S. economic data won’t be released throughout the day as expectations for increase in interest rate tend to be low. The energy ministers of Saudi Arabia and Algeria will meet with OPEC’s top officials on Friday as oil major producers faces difficult to find concreate

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steps to freeze production. The April talks on freezing production collapsed because Saudi Arabia instead that Iran should participate, but Iran said it would keep increasing output after lifting embargo in January.

My Assumption before US stock market open: The Brent crude in already trading lower after gain caused by decreased level of U.S. oil inventory along with the traders are waiting for Fed policy of interest rate. Most countries of OPEC members are asking for a production level which includes some room for continued increase and that then translated the freeze into theoretical increases of supplies, which will give bad sentiment for oil market. I strongly believe that today will price will go further down and oil stocks too so I won’t invest in any oil sectors stocks and will retain my stocks. Furthermore, OPEC will release its monthly report on Monday, indicating that whether they actually freeze the production or the maintain same level of oil production. After this report I may go for call or put options depending upon the level of production by Russia, Saudi Arabian and OPEC as whole.

After US Stock Market Close:

Stocks: RSPP 38.38 (3.66%), AREX 3.57(10.97%), CPE 15.02(3.35%), PXD 180.60(3.69%), PE 33.63(3.45%)ETFS: XLE 69.70(2.98%), USO 10.60(3.38%) Brent Crude Price: 48.23(3.33%) After stock market close

End of the day: I believe, ongoing uncertainty over the timing of the interest rate hike from the federal reserve, OPEC members are asking for a production level which includes some room for continued increase in oil production along with increasing speculation that OPEC’s members couldn’t reach an agreement to freeze oil production helped to move the market down today. Baker and Hughes announced that U.S. has added further 11 rigs in this week which also helped to drove down the oil market. Investors are also waiting for OPEC monthly oil market report on Monday so oil traded lower today.

9/12/2016

1. US Dollar Index: The dollar little changed against others currency before trading as comments by federal reserve official sparked fresh speculation over a potential rate hike in the near future.

2. Weekly petroleum Status report(EIA): EIA will release its next inventory report on 9/14/2016 at 10:30 am E.T. Yesterday, US decreased 14.5mb of oil in its inventory. (-14.5 mb from previous week) US crude oil refinery input (9/08/2016) = 16.9mb/d (+315,000 b/d from previous week)US crude import (9/08/2016) = 7.1mb/d (-1.8mb/d from previous week) US Commercial crude inventories (9/08/2016) = 511.4mb (-14.5 mb from previous week)

3. Baker and Hughes weekly rig count:Baker and Hughes released weekly rig count on Friday. It showed gain in rig count boosting the numbers of machine added since start of July to 84. U.S has crude stockpiles at 511 mb, the highest seasonal level in last three decades according to EIA. (+11 from previous week) Last US count (9/9/2016) = 508 (+11 from previous week)Last International Count (9/9/2016) = 937 (-1 from previous week)

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4. OPEC Monthly oil market report:

OPEC released its monthly report today morning. OPEC now expect production outside the cartel to increase next year, reversing its prior for forecast for a decline. Report says non-members will increase by 200,000 barrels in a day in 2017 as Kazakhstan oil field will come in online in November. Moreover, OPEC maintain same steady production of 33.372mb/day in august. The OPEC swing producer Saudi Arabia increased its crude oil production in August by 0.26% to 10.605 mb/d obtained through secondary source while primary shows oil production has gone down by 0.40% to 10.630.

5. Others Daily Geo-Political events and Fed reports: The OPEC monthly oil market report forecast that oil production will again rebound again by next year. OPEC forecasted world economy growth will be at 3.1% for 2017 and oil demand will increase by 1.23mb/d in 2016. Furthermore, world economic growth is revised down to 2.9% for 2016. Saudi Arabia increased its crude oil production in August by 0.26% to 10.605 mb/d obtained through secondary source while primary shows oil production has gone down by 0.40% to 10.630. OPEC has maintained the same level of production in August to 33.273 mb/d.

My Assumption before US stock market open: US producer’s further increases oil drilling by adding 11 more rigs this week. Apart from that U.S crude stockpiles reached at 511 mb, the highest seasonal level in last three decades. The crude oil market is still oversupply by 1.5 mb/d and forecasted that oversupply trend will continue due to OPEC steady production. News are coming from the market that the OPEC’s meeting that is going to be held in Algeria may be agreed on voluntary production agreement in which member’s countries are allowed to choose how much production each member wants so they can make agreement. This gives negative signal in oil price recovery. So all these factors may decrease the price of oil further down. I strongly believe that oil will trade lower for short period of time (may be until this month’s OPEC meeting) so I want to buy some put options. Today crude Brent is trading around $47.50(-1.9%) before stock market session.

Investment

Bought 1 put option of PXD resources with maturity period of 11 days @ $4.33 ask price.


Stocks: RSPP 38.87(1.28%), AREX 3.69(3.36%), CPE 15.27(1.66%), PXD 183.21(1.45%), PE 33.93 (0.89%)ETFS: XLE 70.39(0.99%), USO 10.64(0.47%) Brent Crude Price: 48.20(0.40%) After stock market close

End of the day: During trading hour dollar held steady against others currency as comments by federal reserve officer sparked fresh speculation over a potential interest rate hike in the near future. I was expecting oil will trade below than previous day because of OPEC report, Steady oversupply and glut in demand but today oil raised by 0.40%. Tomorrow IEA will release a report in details about the future supply a demand. I guess market will be volatile tomorrow after IEA report. The gain in the stock is caused by Federal Reserve Board of governor Lael Brainard speech. She urged caution about removing the monetary stimulus too quickly.

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9/13/2016

1. US Dollar Index: The US dollar index (DXY) recovered today early in the morning after losses on comments by Fed member Brainard. Brainard warned against removing support for the economy too soon. In a speech he says economic progress in U.S. will continue but Fed would be wise to continue keeping policy loose. According to him, low interest increases the chance of overheating U.S. economy.

2. Weekly petroleum Status report(EIA): EIA will release its next inventory report on 9/14/2016 at 10:30 am E.T. US decreased 14.5mb of oil in its inventory. (-14.5 mb from previous week) US crude oil refinery input (9/08/2016) = 16.9mb/d (+315,000 b/d from previous week)US crude import (9/08/2016) = 7.1mb/d (-1.8mb/d from previous week) US Commercial crude inventories (9/08/2016) = 511.4mb (-14.5 mb from previous week)

3. Baker and Hughes weekly rig count:It releases next rig count 9/16/2016. (938 (+11 from previous week)

4. OPEC Monthly oil market report:According to OPEC August report, OPEC expects production outside the cartel to increase next year, reversing its prior for forecast for a decline. Report says non-members will increase by 200,000 barrels in a day in 2017 as Kazakhstan oil field will come in online in November. Moreover, OPEC maintain same steady production of 33.372mb/day in august. The OPEC swing producer Saudi Arabia increased its crude oil production in August by 0.26% to 10.605 mb/d obtained through secondary source while primary shows oil production has gone down by 0.40% to 10.630.

5. Others Daily Geo-Political events and Fed reports: US stocks futures slumping early in the morning. The Brent crude is trading 1.8% lower in the morning after IEA said global demand and growth is slowing by more than previously thought and it further expects slowdown will continue till 2017. The IEA said in its oil market report for September that it anticipates global demand to rise by 1.3mb/d in 2016 and 100,000 barrels below the previous forecast. “Recent pillars of demand growth- China and India are wobbling” the IEA said in its report. The IEA also said it expects a further slowdown next year to 1.2 mb/s. Meanwhile, factory output, investment and retail sales data for August in China all exceeded economist estimates in sign that the world’s second largest economy is proving more resilient than previously thought.

My Assumption before US stock market open: Yesterday the OPEC report showed steady production of crude oil. Today IEA report shows the surplus in global oil market would last into late 2017, longer than previously expected. As a part of same release, the IEA said Saudi Arabia had overtaken the U.S. as world’s largest oil producer. Saudi Arabia has added 400,000 barrels a day of output from low-cost oil fields since may, about 460,0000 barrels a day of high cost production in the US has been shut down at the same time. Tomorrow, EIA will announce its crude oil inventory report and 4 mb is expected to increase in US oil inventory. So I strongly believe that Brent crude oil and Oil sectors stock will trade lower today.

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Investment

I will continue to hold my put option that I purchased yesterday although I made 20% gain till now. I expect that price will move further down in coming days.


Stocks: RSPP 37.21(4.27%), AREX 3.21(13.01%), CPE 14.36(5.96%), PXD 176.87(3.46%), PE 32.41(4.77%)ETFS: XLE 68.38(2.86%), USO 10.38(2.54%) Brent Crude Price: 47.22(2.56%) After stock market close

End of the day: The IEA and OPEC reports which both showed increase oil supply and glut in demand helped to move oil price and stocks down today. Tomorrow, EIA will announce oil inventory report so expectations is high that market may move further down.

9/14/2016

1. US Dollar Index: The dollar little changed against others currency before trading as the countdown to the Fed September 20-21 meeting began. Speculators are looking for tomorrow retails sales data and Friday’s inflation data for speculating future interest rate hike. According Fed rate monitor tool, chances of September interest rate hike is 15% and December is 55%. Dollar move little upwards because of possible future easing by bank of Japan.

2. Weekly petroleum Status report(EIA): EIA will release its inventory report today at 10:30 am E.T. amid of analyst expectations for an increase of 3.8 million barrels. US crude oil refinery input (9/08/2016) = 16.9mb/d (+315,000 b/d from previous week)US crude import (9/08/2016) = 7.1mb/d (-1.8mb/d from previous week) US Commercial crude inventories (9/08/2016) = 511.4mb (-14.5 mb from previous week)

3. Baker and Hughes weekly rig count:Baker and Hughes released weekly rig count on every Friday. It showed gain in rig count boosting the numbers of machine added since start of July to 84. U.S has crude stockpiles at 511 mb, the highest seasonal level in last three decades according to EIA. (+11 from previous week) Last US count (9/9/2016) = 508 (+11 from previous week)Last International Count (9/9/2016) = 937 (-1 from previous week)

4. OPEC Monthly oil market report: OPEC will release its monthly report on 9/12/2016. This is one of the major event for the future oil price movement. Although Saudi Arabia said it will freeze oil production to stabilize price, the actual OPEC and Saudi Production will be known on this date.

5. Others Daily Geo-Political events and Fed reports: According to IEA, upstream oil and gas spending fell by 25% last year to $583 billion, and its estimates a 24% drop this year. The middle East and Russia are the most resilient regions to

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spending cuts according to report with the national oil companies accounting 44% of total upstream investment. Furthermore, money managers are slashing bets on falling oil prices at the fastest pace in five months before major oil producers meet this month in Algeria. Eurozone output fell four out of five segments in July from June. Capital goods production fell by 1.7%, energy output declined by 1.4%, durable consumer goods fell by 0.7%, and intermediate goods fell by 0.5%.

My Assumption before US stock market open: Today, EIA will release weekly U.S. petroleum status report at 10.30 am E.T. Analyst expected increase of 3.8 million barrels. Moreover, hedge fund managers are betting further downside of oil price. Brent crude oil is trading 1.2% below than yesterday price. Previous week’s decline in inventory was boosted by decline in import of crude oil rather than consumption or production glut. So I believe EIA will release inventory level around same level of previous week. Early in the morning the European and Asian market were down and still OPEC unable to announce specific details about freezing production so I believe that oil price will trade further down today.



End of the day: I believe, ongoing uncertainty over the timing of the interest rate hike from the federal reserve, OPEC members are pumping maximum level of their capacity, increasing speculation that OPEC’s members couldn’t reach an agreement to freeze oil production moved down oil price today. Today oil price moved further down by EIA inventory report, which said oil inventory only decreased by 0.6 mb than previous week.

9/15/2016

1. US Dollar Index: The dollar was moved down early in the morning after disappointing U.S. retail sales. Retail sales in the U.S. slipped more than expected for the first time in five months raising concern about economic growth rate. U.S. commerce department said that retail sales dropped 0.3% from the prior month compared to the forecast for a decline of 0.1%. Furthermore, number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. last week rose less than expected. Thus Fed likely to leave the interest rate unchanged at its next meeting.

2. Weekly petroleum Status report(EIA): EIA will release its next inventory report on 9/21/2016 at 10:30 am E.T. Yesterday, US decreased 0.6mb of oil in its inventory. (-0.6 mb from previous week) US crude oil refinery input (9/14/2016) = 16.7mb/d (-200,000 b/d from previous week)US crude import (9/14/2016) = 8.1mb/d (+0.993 mb/d from previous week) US Commercial crude inventories (9/14/2016) = 510.8mb (-0.6 mb from previous week)

3. Baker and Hughes weekly rig count: It releases next rig count 9/16/2016. 938 (+11 from previous week)

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4. OPEC Monthly oil market report:According to OPEC August report, OPEC expects production outside the cartel to increase next year, reversing its prior for forecast for a decline. Report says non-members will increase by 200,000 barrels in a day in 2017 as Kazakhstan oil field will come in online in November. Moreover, OPEC maintain same steady production of 33.372mb/day in august. The OPEC swing producer Saudi Arabia increased its crude oil production in August by 0.26% to 10.605 mb/d obtained through secondary source while primary shows oil production has gone down by 0.40% to 10.630.

5. Others Daily Geo-Political events and Fed reports: The two OPEC crude oil producers, Nigeria and Libya are preparing to add hundreds of thousands of barrel of oil within this week. Analyst are predicting that they may supply 300,000 barrels of oil per day from this week. In addition to this, Goldman Sachs Inc., said oil will trade between $45 to $50 for the next 12 months. Exxon Mobil Corp. said company is ready to resume shipments of Nigeria’s biggest export and Royal Dutch shell is scheduled to restart about 200,000 barrels a day of flow within this week from Nigeria. Moreover, Kazakhstan Economy minister said oil will trade at $35 a barrel next year.

My Assumption before US stock market open: Today, U.S. retail sales fell 0.3% in august, according to census Bureau. Analyst had predicted a 0.1% drop. Initial job claims remained under 300,000 mark for another week, continuing longest stretch since 1970. The number of jobless claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S. rose 1,000 to 260,000 in the past week, more than expected increase to 265,000. Producer prices in the US came in flat in august, signaling Fed will move back from increasing interest rate. Dollar was started dipping lower when Fed data came in the market so dollar index had gone down. Although the fundamentals are against oil price, I strong believe that oil will trade higher today due to weak dollar so I will buy some stocks.

Investment

Bought 800 AREX stocks @ $3.0999 and Sold 900 stocks @ 3.1401

Profit of the Day: = 1.3%

Aggregate loss = 2.12% (I sold 100 stocks of AREX that I bought 3 days earlier)

I sold the stock it was trading high. I will continue to hold my put option that I purchased expecting that price will move down.

After US Stock Market Close: Stocks: RSPP 37.18 (1.53%), AREX 2.99 (2.61%), CPE 14.19(0.42%), PXD 178.48(1.23%), PE 32.38(0.94%)ETFS: XLE 68.41(1.24%), USO 10.14(0.5%) Brent Crude Price: 47.12(1.65%) After stock market close

End of the day: Although there was news about the increasing production across Nigeria, Libya and Iraq, today oil price was driven up by the weaker dollar. Tomorrow, U.S. inflation and U.S. rig numbers will be released so oil price will be more volatile tomorrow trading period.

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9/16/2016

1. US Dollar Index: The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) is moved higher boosted by better than expected inflation data. The U.S. commerce department said the consumer price index rose to 0.2% in August compared to expectations of 0.1% gain. The cost of living in the U.S. rose more than projected in August on higher shelter and health-care prices, indicating that the inflation continuous to move to the Federal Reserve’s goal. The DXY was moving higher by 0.63% after inflation data.

2. Weekly petroleum Status report(EIA): EIA will release its next inventory report on 9/21/2016 at 10:30 am E.T. US crude oil refinery input (9/14/2016) = 16.7mb/d (-200,000 b/d from previous week)US crude import (9/14/2016) = 8.1mb/d (+0.993 mb/d from previous week) US Commercial crude inventories (9/14/2016) = 510.8mb (-0.6 mb from previous week)

3. Baker and Hughes weekly rig count:B&H Will release its weekly rig count today at 1 pm (E.T.) (+11 from previous week)

4. OPEC Monthly oil market report:According to OPEC August report, OPEC expects production outside the cartel to increase next year, reversing its prior for forecast for a decline. Report says non-members will increase by 200,000 barrels in a day in 2017 as Kazakhstan oil field will come in online in November. Moreover, OPEC maintain same steady production of 33.372mb/day in August. The OPEC swing producer Saudi Arabia increased its crude oil production in August by 0.26% to 10.605 mb/d obtained through secondary source while primary shows oil production has gone down by 0.40% to 10.630.

5. Others Daily Geo-Political events and Fed reports:

The U.S. stocks futures were lower this morning ahead of U.S. inflation data. European markets fell in early trading with major indices down by banks. The U.S. wants Deutsche bank to pay $14 billion over toxic mortgages. Oil was also falling this morning as OPEC members Libya and Nigeria prepare to boost exports in the next couple of weeks. A leak has caused closure of crucial section of pipeline, which runs from Huston to New York since September 8 after a spill of roughly 6,000 barrels of gasoline was discovered. Furthermore, high cost North Sea oil producers are decreasing cost of production to the price slump and will continue same level of output. The oil surplus will last longer than previously thought as demand slumps and output proves resilient, according to IEA. In addition to this, the Alberta energy regulator approved three new oil-sands projects totaling 95,000 barrels per day of output, the provincial government said in an emailed release. News came from OPEC nations that Stockpiles grew as OPEC reduced spare capacity and pumped at record labels.

My Assumption before US stock market open: Today, U.S consumer price index rose to 0.2% in august compared to expectations of 0.1% gain thus strengthening dollar and weakening oil price. Early in the morning, oil was trading lowest level in two weeks as Libya and Nigeria are planning to supply of more crude oil. Oil futures fell 1.6% in New York extending week decline of 5.8%. Today my strategy will be wait and invest. Oil was already trading lower and I believe it will trade lower whole trading day. The U.S. dollar is moving up because of U.S. inflation was higher than expected by analyst. At 11 pm, Baker and Hughes will release weekly rig count, if rig count increases than I will buy some more put options. If rig count decreases by high number (more than 5 to 10), I will sell my put option immediately and buy some stocks.

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Investment

Today, I didn’t buy any stocks and I hold my put option further. The drillers are still hesitating to decrease drilling activities. B&H released data showing that number of U.S. oil rig count just fell by 2 than prior week.

After US Stock Market Close: Stocks: RSPP 37.11 (0.19%), AREX 2.98 (0.33%), CPE 14.48(2.04%), PXD 177.12(0.76%), PE 32.97(1.82%)ETFS: XLE 67.45(0.79%), USO 10 (1.38%) Brent Crude Price: 46.49(1.21%) After stock market close

End of the day: Today U.S. dollar helped to move down oil price. In addition to this, U.S. oil drillers are hesitating to decrease drilling activities according to B$H rig count report. Both of these dragged oil market down.

9/19/2016

1. US Dollar Index: The dollar fell against others currency before trading as the traders looks ahead Central Bank meeting in Japan and U.S. later in the week. The dollar slipped as there is no expatiations of interest rate change from federal reserve this week. The Federal Reserve will release its latest forecast for economic growth and interest rate after meeting which will be crucial for future investment. The Fed meeting will start on Tuesday in which U.S. policy maker will debate U.S. economy and its ability to absorb over interest rate hike. Moreover, speculation is going on about Chania’s central bank intervening to defend the 6.7 to the dollar level as overnight interbank yuan rate surged 15.7% to 23.7% in Hong Kong.

2. Weekly petroleum Status report(EIA): EIA will release its next inventory report on 9/21/2016 at 10:30 am E.T. US crude oil refinery input (9/14/2016) = 16.7mb/d (-200,000 b/d from previous week)US crude import (9/14/2016) = 8.1mb/d (+0.993 mb/d from previous week) US Commercial crude inventories (9/14/2016) = 510.8mb (-0.6 mb from previous week

3. Baker and Hughes weekly rig count:Baker and Hughes released weekly rig count on every Friday. (-2 from previous week)

4. OPEC Monthly oil market report: According to OPEC August report, OPEC expects production outside the cartel to increase next year, reversing its prior for forecast for a decline. Report says non-members will increase by 200,000 barrels in a day in 2017 as Kazakhstan oil field will come in online in November. Moreover, OPEC maintain same steady production of 33.372mb/day in august. The OPEC swing producer Saudi Arabia increased its crude oil production in August by 0.26% to 10.605 mb/d obtained through secondary source while primary shows oil production has gone down by 0.40% to 10.630.

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5. Others Daily Geo-Political events and Fed reports: Venezuelan President said that OPEC and non-OPEC countries were close to reaching agreement for freezing output. Furthermore, clashes in Libya halted effort to restore crude oil export since 2014. The fighting in Libya forces the tanker Sea delta to suspend the loading of 781,000 barrels of oil for shipment to Italy. Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro said on Sunday that a deal between OPEC and non-OPEC countries could be announce this month. Iraq’s August crude exports jumped 15% from July to more than 2 million Barrels per day, according to Bloomberg.

My Assumption before US stock market open: Although, oil price was supposed to decline further, the latest statement made by Venezuela’s president about OPEC and non-OPEC countries were close to reaching agreement for freezing output will help to raise oil price at least for today. In addition to this, tankers were unable to load first shipment from Libya after fighting started between local petroleum guards and others militant groups helped to raised oil price. Furthermore, dollar fell against others currency before trading as investors assuming that Fed won’t increase the interest rate in September. So I believe that oil will trade higher today.

Investment: Bought 1 call option of PXD resources @ $4.40 with 4 days’ maturity



End of the day: I believe, ongoing uncertainty over the timing of the interest rate hike from the federal reserve whether in September or in December and News came out from Libya, that it will resume its export again from Tuesday although it couldn’t export in its schedule time due to the fighting between militants and government groups, helped to raised oil price but stocks were dragged down.

9/20/2016

1. US Dollar Index: The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) slipped lower against other major currency ahead of Federal reserve meeting. Investors are waiting for Federal reserve bank and Bank of Japan Announcements tomorrow. The U.S. department of commerce said housing stats dropped 5.8% to 1.142 million units last month from July’s total of 1.212 million. Analyst expected decrease of 1.7% in August. Meanwhile, the number of building permits issued declined of 0.4% to 1.139 million units from 1.144 million. Economist had forecast a 2.5% raise to 1.17 million Units in August. Japan will release trade balance number, with the surplus expected to jump to JPY 0.50 trillion so high volatility is assuming afternoon exchange rate. Analysts are assuming that Fed wont’s hike interest rate whereas Bank of Japan may change in its easing program by cutting interest rate in to deeper negative tertiary, improving its asset purchase program or may introducing new regulation on duration of securities that it will purchase in bond market.

2. Weekly petroleum Status report(EIA): EIA will release its next inventory report on 9/21/2016 at 10:30 am E.T.

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US crude oil refinery input (9/14/2016) = 16.7mb/d (-200,000 b/d from previous week)US crude import (9/14/2016) = 8.1mb/d (+0.993 mb/d from previous week) US Commercial crude inventories (9/14/2016) = 510.8mb (-0.6 mb from previous week)

3. Baker and Hughes weekly rig count:B&H Will release its weekly rig count on Friday at 1 pm (E.T.) (-2 from previous week)

4. OPEC Monthly oil market report:According to OPEC August report, OPEC expects production outside the cartel to increase next year, reversing its prior for forecast for a decline. Report says non-members will increase by 200,000 barrels in a day in 2017 as Kazakhstan oil field will come in online in November. Moreover, OPEC maintain same steady production of 33.372mb/day in August. The OPEC swing producer Saudi Arabia increased its crude oil production in August by 0.26% to 10.605 mb/d obtained through secondary source while primary shows oil production has gone down by 0.40% to 10.630.


The U.S. stocks futures were traded slightly lower as investor are cautious with the U.S. dollar ahead of Fed Monthly Policy meeting. Oil price were traded lower in early morning after Venezuela said that Global supplies needed to fall by 10% in order to bring production down to consumption level. Meanwhile, India crude import peaked in August as Indian refineries imported 18.81 million metric tons of crude oil during the month, a 9.1% increase over the last year according to Bloomberg. Furthermore, WTI for October delivery, which expires today, was at $42.86 a barrel on NYME, down 44 cents from prior month indicating that oversupply getting bigger and bigger. Saudi Arabia oil exports climbed in July to a record level as world’s biggest oil producer raised shipments by 166,000 barrels a day to 7.622 million a day in July compared with the previous month. Thus, total production increased by 123,000 barrels a day to a record 10.673 million in a day.

My Assumption before US stock market open: Brent oil was trading lower on speculation that global glut will be sustained amid rising supply from Nigeria to U.S. Futures fall 1% in New York after advancing 0.6% Monday. Investors are also quit amid of Federal reserve meeting. Nigeria’s output expanded to 1.75 million barrels a day and will keep raising after Government Outreach to militants and a cease-fire allowed some production to restart. Thus Nigeria output reach 1.8 million barrels a day in next month and 2 million by December. Brent crude oil for November settlement fell 45 cents to $45.50 on London futures. In addition to this, a tanker returned to Libya’s Third-Biggest oil port to load a cargo one day after clashes between rival armed forces and government supporters. All these activities are negative for the oi price. so I believe that oil price will trade lower today’s trading hour so do the energy sectors stocks.

Investment

Sold 1 Put option of PXD resources after holding 7 daysProfit on Investment = 7% Tomorrow, chances that Fed will increase interest rate is low so oil I assume that oil price will trade higher. The EIA will release weekly inventory report, although summer driving season has gone, I am expecting that there will be little decline in oil inventory. Therefore, I sold my put option and continue to hold call option that I purchased yesterday. The Gain on put option was minimum because the PXD stock didn’t moved down as expected although Oil price moved down as I predicted.

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After US Stock Market Close: Stocks: RSPP 36.97 (0.88%), AREX 2.70 (2.53%), CPE 14.15(1.53%), PXD 175.75(0.42%), PE 32.10(2.07%)ETFS: XLE 66.92(0.73%), USO 10.07(0.90%) Brent Crude Price: 46.49(0.41%) After stock market close

End of the day: During trading hour, Bret crude was trading 1.27% down to $45.83 per barrel. But oil started to raise at the end of trading hour because investors are expecting Fed won’t increase the interest rate and news came out that Venezuela’s oil production fell to 2.33 million barrels a day in August compared to previous month output 2.5 million barrels. These both activities helped to increase the oil price at late trading hour.

9/21/2016

1. US Dollar Index: The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) jumped to 0.25% early in the morning after BOJ announcement. The BOJ unveiled complex changes to its policy framework by setting a target for the long term interest rate that retain 80 trillion Yen asset purchase plan. BOJ aim at 2% inflation by introducing a long-term interest target of around 0% for 10 year Japanese government bonds. This news gave global stock market a lift, with U.S. stock futures, European markets and Asian markets all rising. Japan Niki Index surged 1.9% as yen drops. Today, all eyes will be on the federal reserve’s interest rate decision at 12 p.m., followed by Janet Yellen’s press conference 30 minutes later.

2. Weekly petroleum Status report(EIA): EIA will release its next inventory report today at 10:30 am E.T. with the markets expecting a strong surplus of 3.2 million. Crude oil price will volatile today as EIA reports weekly crude oil inventory data. (-0.6 mb from previous week)

3. Baker and Hughes weekly rig count:B&H Will release its weekly rig count on Friday at 1 pm (E.T.) (-2 from previous week)

4. OPEC Monthly oil market report: According to OPEC August report, OPEC expects production outside the cartel to increase next year, reversing its prior for forecast for a decline. Report says non-members will increase by 200,000 barrels in a day in 2017 as Kazakhstan oil field will come in online in November. Moreover, OPEC maintain same steady production of 33.372mb/day in August. The OPEC swing producer Saudi Arabia increased its crude oil production in August by 0.26% to 10.605 mb/d obtained through secondary source while primary shows oil production has gone down by 0.40% to 10.630.


The crude oil futures and U.S. stock futures were rising by 2% in the morning ahead of Federal reserve meeting on interest rate decision. Japan’s central bank said its short term policy rate will remain at negative 0.1% but that it would buy up 10-year government bond yields at a pace that would keep theirs yields around current level of zero. A tanker sailed from Libya with a crude oil

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cargo bound for Italy after a halt in fighting between rival armed forces. Another tanker was arrived in Ras Lanuf to ship 600,000 barrels of crude oil to Italy. Libya boosted crude oil production by more than 70% since August as some oil fields resumed output and started exporting. Libya is seeking to ramp up crude oil production and exports. Libya already rose output to 450,000 barrels a day after work resumed at some oil fields. Brazilian company, Petroleo Brasileiro SA said it will reduce investment by 25% and will accelerate asset disposals as it downsizes low oil prices amid of Brazil’s deepest two-year recession. Furthermore, Exxon and Mobil Corp’s accounting has prompted a U.S. securities and Exchange commission investigation into whether the energy giant should have written down asset as a result of the oil slump, according to The Street.

My Assumption before US stock market open: Crude oil already rallied today near $46.5 a barrel in early hour prior to OPEC meeting on next week. As Algeria said OPEC may turn its informal meeting next week into a formal session. OPEC seeks ways with others producers to cut supplies by 1 million barrels a day to re-balance markets and stabilize prices. The EIA estimates that global crude oil supply outages rose 10,000 barrels per day to 2.8 mb/d in August 2016 compared to the previous month. Global crude oil supply outages of 3.6 mb/d in May 2016 were the highest since 2011. Iranian oil minister said that Iran is committed to building a consensus on stabilizing the oil market between OPEC and Non-members countries and assured that Iran will do everything possible in joining hands with members within the OPEC group as well as non-OPEC Group. Though all the fundamentals are against oil price, I believe that today oil price will trade higher because of the expectations of Fed won’t increase interest rate and will become more volatile after weekly U.S. inventory report. Today, I will sell by call option immediately if EIA report shows high inventory data and if Fed increase interest rate. I will buy more stocks if EIA shows decline inventory data and will sell my call option at the end of trading hour.

Investment

Sold 1 Call option of PXD resources after holding 2 daysProfit on Investment = 23% I sold PXD stock after holding 2 days because I have purchased stock with 4 days of maturity. After lower oil inventory report and Fed decision not to hike interest rate, PXD stock was trading 3% above, I sold my stock because tomorrow oil price will depend upon tomorrow’s new information from market.

Bought 90 stocks of parsley energy (PE) @ $32.2699 When EIA released report showing U.S oil inventory declined by 6.2 million barrels, I immediately tried to purchase stocks but all the stocks were trading above 3% with in a fraction of second, I bought parsley Energy which was trading just yesterday’s level. As soon I bought stock, it was already 0.5% up so I couldn’t make maximum gain. Although I made 1.37% gain in today’s trading period and decided to hold it for couple of days. After US Stock Market Close: Stocks: RSPP 36.97 (3.65%), AREX 2.92 (8.15%), CPE 14.90(5.3%), PXD 182.41(3.79%), PE 32.70(1.87%)ETFS: XLE 68.47(2.32%), USO 10.40(3.28%) Brent Crude Price: 47.45(2.21%) After stock market close

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End of the day: The stocks futures were already trading higher after BOJ announced its monetary policy. Furthermore, EIA report showed the U.S. crude oil inventories declined by 6.2 million barrels from previous week which pushed oil stocks up and Fed announcement of maintaining same interest rate again raise markets further up.

9/22/2016

1. US Dollar Index: The dollar faltered Thursday morning as the Fed left rates on hold and despite robust U.S. jobless claim data. The Fed also signaled possible rate hike before the end of year. The labor market reported that number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to a two months low last week. Initial jobs claim fell 8,000 to 252,000, the lowest level since mid-July. Analyst had predicted jobless claim to be rise by 2,000 to 262,000 last week. Thursday claims report also showed that the number of people still receiving the benefit after an initial week of aid fell 36,000 to 2.11 million in the week ended September 10. Likewise, U.S. home sales fall unexpectedly in August to its second lowest pace in 2016. The industry data showed that home resales decreased 0.9% in August to a seasonally adjusted 5.33 million units in July. The analyst forecast was for a 1.1% advance to 5.45 million units.

2. Weekly petroleum Status report(EIA): EIA released its inventory report yesterday at 10:30 am E.T. US crude oil refinery input (9/21/2016) = 16.6mb/d (-143,000 b/d from previous week)US crude import (9/21/2016) = 8.3mb/d (247,000 b/d from previous week) US Commercial crude inventories (9/21/2016) = 504.6mb (-6.2 mb from previous week)

3. Baker and Hughes weekly rig count:Baker and Hughes released weekly rig count tomorrow at 1 pm E.T. (-2 from previous week)


5. Others Daily Geo-Political events and Fed reports: The federal investigation of how Exxon Mobil values assets in a world of increasing climate change regulations elicited sharp reactions, with some investors seeing it as a tipping point in a campaign to get companies to disclose climate risks and some oil companies are calling it a politically motivated. Yesterday, Iraqi and U.A.E. governor said that this is the right time for OPEC to reach an agreement on the oil output. Saudi Arabia and Iran meet on Wednesday, along with fellow OPEC member Qatar at the group’s headquarters in Vienna. All three countries were making informal planning for production freeze. OPEC also locked in a contest for market share, both between members and with competitors outside the group like U.S. shale drillers, making a deal difficult. The Venezuela national oil corporation is getting ready to start one of the largest drilling projects with initial investment of $3.2 billion even though global oil market is

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oversupplied. Russian output rose to a record level. Output in September has been about 11.09 million barrels a day, the highest monthly average since Soviet era, and reached about 11.18 million on Tuesday. Russia will meet fellow oil producers in Algeria on September 28 to discuss the market as the global surplus keeps prices below $50 per barrel.

My Assumption before US stock market open: U.S. and European stock market pointed a higher open after Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but signaled it could lift rates before the end of 2016. Early in the morning oil extended gains after weekly government data showed U.S. inventories dropped to the lowest since February. November future rose as much as 1.8% in New York after advancing 2.9% yesterday. Early in the morning U.A.E. energy minister said OPEC members may reach agreement on next meeting in Algeria. Today, I believe that oil price will move further higher due to Fed action of leaving interest rate unchanged, dollar index is trading lower and market is expecting that OPEC will announce fixed path to freeze oil production in Algeria meeting.

Investment: Today, I will hold my stocks. Tomorrow, Baker and Hughes will announce number of oil rig count, then after I will sell my stocks immediately if rig count increases otherwise I will wait for couple of hours and sell it.



End of the day: Today stock traded higher as I predicted but the Permian Basin stocks especially traded lower. The stock was raised due to Fed unchanged interest rate and Iraq statement of saying it is a right time to freeze the production. I couldn’t find why all Permian Basin stocks traded lower today. After the U.S. home sales announced, the oil stocks moved lower but the Permian basin stocks are dragged to negative territory.

9/23/2016

1. US Dollar Index: The dollar edged higher against other currency on Friday morning although index was on weekly loss after Fed cut its long range interest rate forecast and BOJ rebooted its monetary policy framework. In the Euro zone, data on Friday showed that business activities expanded at the slowest rate since 2015. The composite PMI (both manufacturing and service sectors) slipped to 52.6 in September from 52.8 from previous month showing growth in the currency is still struggling. ECB official said that economy would respond better to its stimulus measures.

2. Weekly petroleum Status report(EIA): EIA will release its next inventory report on 9/28/2016 at 10:30 am E.T. US crude oil refinery input (9/21/2016) = 16.6mb/d (-143,000 b/d from previous week)US crude import (9/21/2016) = 8.3mb/d (247,000 b/d from previous week) US Commercial crude inventories (9/21/2016) = 504.6mb (-6.2 mb from previous week)

3. Baker and Hughes weekly rig count:

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Baker and Hughes released weekly rig count today at 1 pm E.T. (-2 from previous week)


5. Others Daily Geo-Political events and Fed reports: Algerian oil minister said he is confident that OPEC will reach ab agreement at the meeting. BMI research said that oil companies will spend 2.5% more on capital expenditure next year than they did this year. Russia, Libya and Nigeria will produce 800,000 barrels of additional crude oil per day this month according to Bloomberg. This situation will triple the supply of crude oil surplus, estimated currently at about 400,000 barrels a day by IEA. Nigeria revived output to 1.75 million barrels a day following a cease-fire deal with militants in Niger delta region. Nigeria produced 1.44 mb/d last month with is lowest in two decades. Russia pushed output to a record 11.09 million barrels a day in September raising doubts about freezing oil production. Canada is sending a record amount of oil in the U.S., filling pipelines to capacity and threating to push more crude into rail cars. U.S. import from Canada jumped 17% to 3.46 million barrels per day last week, EIA said in its report on Wednesday. Exports have surged as Alberta recovers from wildfires that disrupted supplies earlier this year. Venezuela has scaled back an 11-year program that allows its allies in the Caribbean and central America to buy its oil subsidized price as country is suffering from triple digit inflation and recession.

My Assumption before US stock market open: Early in the morning, WTI jumped by $1 to $46.41 when Saudi Arabia said it is ready to cut the production if Iran agree to freeze. Saudi Arabia said it offered lower its output if Iran agrees to freeze its production at its current level of 3.6 million barrels a day. The talks between two nations ended on yesterday. Furthermore, Iraq’s oil minister said his country supports any deal to prop up oil prices in the international market ahead of next week’s meeting of oil producers in Algeria. He said, Iraq set production ceiling between 4.75 to 5 million barrels per day. Although the fundaments are against oil price due to oversupply, today I believe oil price will trade higher before the Baker and Hughes rig count time because of Saudi Arabia and Iraq constructive planning for freezing output. After 1 pm the oil price will move on the basis of increasing or decreasing number of rig count.

Investment: Today, I will sell my stocks. Today, Baker and Hughes will announce number of U.S. oil rig count at 1 pm E.T. I will sell my stock immediately if there is an increase number U.S. oil rigs but if the rig count decreases than I will sell after couple of hours later.

Sold 900 stocks of PE @ $31.46

Loss in investment = 2.5%


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End of the day: Today stocks were trading higher in early trading hour as I assumed. But news came out suddenly from CNBC that the strategy of oil production freeze by Saudi Arabia might not be enough to boost crude oil prices even it goes ahead, the Russian finance minister told CNBC. Russian finance minister further said the agreement to freeze the oil production won’t have any effect on production and there will be more possibility that shale produces will increase production further as the result price will fall. The oil market started dragging down, but I decided to hold my stock till 1 pm Baker and Hughes rig count report time as I was expecting decrease in number of rig count. At 1 pm report showed U.S. has added 5 more rigs past week and Canada has added 6 rigs, immediately I sold my stock. Actually I had a chance to exit from the market at minimal loss by selling stocks as soon as news came, but my decision to hold all stocks till rig count time cost me 2.5% loss.

9/26/2016

1. US Dollar Index: The dollar weakened against other currency on today morning as expectations of short term interest rate by Fed diminished while yen gained following the comments by the bank of Japan Governor. He said the Central bank remained ready to use every available measure to achieve its 2% inflation target, including cutting the interest rate further into negative territory. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) slid 0.25% to 95.17 in early trading hour. The data released on Friday showed U.S. manufacturing activities showed larger than expected decline in September. In a report, flash manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) dropped to 51.4 in September from the prior month. Analyst expected further decrease in this month.

2. Weekly petroleum Status report(EIA): EIA will release its next inventory report on 9/28/2016 at 10:30 am E.T. US crude oil refinery input (9/21/2016) = 16.6mb/d (-143,000 b/d from previous week)US crude import (9/21/2016) = 8.3mb/d (+247,000 b/d from previous week) US Commercial crude inventories (9/21/2016) = 504.6mb (-6.2 mb from previous week)

3. Baker and Hughes weekly rig count:B&H Will release its weekly rig count on every Friday at 1 pm (E.T.) U.S. rig count on 9/23/2016 (+5 from previous week)Canada rig count 9/23/2016 (+6 from previous week)International rig count 9/23/2016 (-1 from previous week)

4. OPEC Monthly oil market report: According to OPEC August report, OPEC expects production outside the cartel to increase next year, reversing its prior for forecast for a decline. Report says non-members will increase by 200,000 barrels in a day in 2017 as Kazakhstan oil field will come in online in November. Moreover, OPEC maintain same steady production of 33.372mb/day in august. The OPEC swing producer Saudi Arabia increased its crude oil production in August by 0.26% to 10.605 mb/d

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obtained through secondary source while primary shows oil production has gone down by 0.40% to 10.630.

5. Others Daily Geo-Political events and Fed reports: Today afternoon, OPEC and Non-OPEC members are scheduled for preliminary meeting in Algeria for possible freezing output to support price. According experts, chances that meeting would yield to reduce global glut is minimal. Algerian oil minister said oil price will drop to $30 per barrel if officials walked away without agreement. Non-OPEC country, Russian energy minister said Russia is still ill prepared for any coordinated production action. He further said, OPEC members doesn’t trust anyone and everyone is just ramping up the production. The Swiss bank UBS forecasted that Russia will increase its crude oil production by 2.7% next year. The report released by Saudi Aramco said slower growth in oil supply is helping the crude oil market to re-balance and prices are set to increase over time as supply is raising more slowly, decreasing capital expenditure, and decreasing production of U.S. shale. Furthermore, Citi bank said the Indian economy will grow around 8% throughout 2021 as it will be center of world’s oil demand growth.

My Assumption before US stock market open: U.S. stock futures fall today morning ahead of presidential debate today evening and oil producer’s meeting in Algeria. The oil prices gained early in the morning as Algerian energy minister said all options are possible for an output freeze among the OPEC and Non-OPEC members. OPEC members are divided on cuts before Algerian talks. Many produces have conflicting views with Iran, Iraq, Nigeria and Libya determined to restore lost production while Russia and Saudi Arabia maintain near record level of production. Saudi Arabia said it is not anticipating any formal decision on supply freeze that will be take in Algeria today. Although the Brent crude is trading higher this morning, I believe that crude oil and oil stocks will trade lower once the market open. The surplus supply will reach around 1 million barrels per day in October and none of the counties want to freeze the production.



End of the day: Today oil traded higher and stocks are mixed. Oil traded higher due to low dollar index and expectation of investors that a production freeze deal will happen on Wednesday OPEC meeting in Algeria. Today, although the crude Brent oil traded more than 2% in trading hour, few oil stocks moved just higher than yesterday’s level.

9/27/2016

1. US Dollar Index: The dollar held steady against the other major currency on Tuesday morning, as sentiment slightly improved after debate between U.S. presidential nominees Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump and markets continued to recover from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision. Concerns related to the U.S., Presidential debate late Monday eased as analyst considered that Hillary Clinton did better than her rival Donald Trump. The National Bureau of statistics said

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Industrial profits in China rose 19.5% in August from a year earlier to 534.8 billion yuan, adding to the evidence of continued stabilization in manufacturing and boosting prospects for their ability to repay debt. Meantime, private indicators show upbeat sentiment in business confidence and increased factory activity in September.

2. Weekly petroleum Status report(EIA): EIA will release its inventory report tomorrow at 10:30 am E.T. Analyst expected that crude inventory will increase by 3 million barrel in last week in tomorrow report. US crude oil refinery input (9/21/2016) = 16.6mb/d (-143,000 b/d from previous week)US crude import (9/21/2016) = 8.3mb/d (+247,000 b/d from previous week) US Commercial crude inventories (9/21/2016) = 504.6mb (-6.2 mb from previous week)



5. Others Daily Geo-Political events and Fed reports: Crude oil price early in the morning as skepticism grew over whether oil producers can agree upon a production freeze. At the three-day meeting, Iran committed to pumping more oil after sanctions lifted. The Iranian oil minister said the country doesn’t intend to strike an agreement with other crude producers in Algeria. Saudi Arabia energy minister said meeting early meeting were merely consultative. The head of IEA executive director, Biro said this morning “we don’t see oil market re-balancing until late 2017 until without any intervention”. Furthermore, renewed militant arracks, low oil prices and weak refinery margin have cost RDS, ExxonMobil and Chevron $7.1 billion dollar in the first half of this year, representing about 70% of their earnings according to SBM intelligence. Analyst are now expecting that oil to sit $43 per barrel for the rest of year, down from previous forecast $50 a barrel as oversupply will continue to outweigh demand even if freeze agreement come to pass. Latest report by Goldman shows oil-producing nations such as Russia, Canada and Kazakhstan will boost production further contributing to global surplus supply.

My Assumption before US stock market open: Crude oil futures dropped 1.6% early in the morning. Brent crude oil was trading 2.4% down to $46.39 suggesting that investors have little faith a deal can be done. Saudi Arabia said it dashes hopes that OPEC oil producers could reach a deal this week to limit output as OPEC will start its informal talk from tomorrow. The ongoing rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia helps in dragging oil price. Saudi Arabia has offered to reduce its production to the level of last January, according to Algeria’s oil minister. This offer would remove about half of the kingdom’s 1 million barrel per day increase in output since it started excess producing 2014. While Iran said to have reject the Saudi Proposal, unless it will reach 4 million barrel per day and occupy its previous lost market share. Iran is

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seeking a 12-13% share of OPEC’s market, that would equate to as much as 4.4 million barrel a day according to Bloomberg. Oil is already trading lower so I believe ongoing rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia will dragged oil price further down today’s trading period.

Investment: Yesterday, although Brent and WTI traded higher that 3% level but oil company’s stocks didn’t move higher. Few stocks made gain but gain limited around 1% irrespective of higher oil price, so I was unable to find perfect correlation. Today, I believe oil will trade lower but I won’t buy any put options. I am confused whether decreasing oil price will enough to push oil stock down to make gain in put options. So, I decided to watch full OPEC meeting before investing any options.



End of the day: The major problem in OPEC is everybody want to deal to freeze output but production cut are not up for discussion. In addition to this, Iran rejected Saudi deal offer last week to cut down its production helped to decreased oil price further down before today meeting, with investors expecting that OPEC won’t reach a deal to freeze oil production.

9/28/2016

1. US Dollar Index: The dollar remained gains against the other major currency today morning after release of positive U.S. data on durable goods orders, as markets remained mostly focused on a highly anticipated meeting between oil majors. The U.S. commerce department said that durable goods orders remained unchanged last month, compared to expectations for a 1.4% decline. July’s orders were revised down to show an increase of 3.6% from a previously reported 4.4% gain. Total durable goods order, which include transportation items, remained unchanged last month, the commerce department said compared to the economist’s expectations of decline 1.4%. Federal Reserve Bank has two meetings left on this year, economists say it is most likely that Fed will pull the trigger in the rates in December.

2. Weekly petroleum Status report(EIA): EIA will release its inventory report today at 10:30 am E.T. Analyst expected that crude inventory increased by 3 million barrel in past week. US crude oil refinery input (9/21/2016) = 16.6mb/d (-143,000 b/d from previous week)US crude import (9/21/2016) = 8.3mb/d (+247,000 b/d from previous week) US Commercial crude inventories (9/21/2016) = 504.6mb (-6.2 mb from previous week)


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5. Others Daily Geo-Political events and Fed reports: U.S. stock futures turned slightly today morning ahead of number if speeches by federal reserve Bank officials and ahead of OPEC countries meeting for a freeze in production to support price. hopes for an agreement to freeze production in an effort to boost prices faded yesterday as disagreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Iran said it’s not a time for an agreement to freeze the production and Iran will try to reach an agreement in November. Iran has long maintained it should be free to increase oil output to at least the level it was before the sanctions level. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has been flooding the market in an attempt to slow Iran’s revival and put U.S. shale producers out of business. Furthermore, Saudi Arabian stocks lost the most in the world for a second straight day amid of waning hopes for an oil production deal that may deteriorate up the Nation’s finances so it has huge challenge to make an agreement in today’s meeting. Russia is further adding as much as 400,000 barrels of oil a day by pumping record level.

My Assumption before US stock market open: Crude oil prices rebounded today morning as IEA and EIA report remain in focus. WTI crude oil was 1.6% up this morning to $45.39 a barrel. Iran oil minister today said ahead of meeting, that his country unwilling to freeze production at a current levels and ho no intention of reaching an accord this week but hinted that an agreement could be stuck at the OPEC meeting taking place in Vienna this November. “Iran is viewing the talks that they are going to have today as consultative, with perhaps an outcome that would be there to set up the next round in Vienna as discussion in Algeria will lay groundwork for an agreement” Iranian oil minister said. Although Saudi Arabia gave strong indication that it is ready to compromise with its regional rival, Iran and said Iran should be allowed to produce at the maximum level that makes sense.

Today, the EIA inventory report and OPEC meeting outcome will determine oil price. I guess the oil price will trade higher in early hour due to the high expectations of a deal. I will buy stocks if there is decrease in oil inventory level if EIA report came prior of OPEC decision. I will sale my stock immediately assuming that OPEC won’t make a deal between its members. I believe that OPEC won’t reach any agreement in this informal meeting because of differences between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Investment:

Bought 1300 stocks of @2.7487 and Sold @ 2.7501

The Brent crude oil and Oil stocks were trading slightly higher before EIA report. The EIA report showed U.S. crude oil inventory declined by 1.9 million barrels. So I bought the stocks but the crude oil and stocks suddenly started dragging down despite of declined oil inventory so I sold my stocks immediately because I was assuming that stocks will decline further after OPEC meeting.

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US Stock Market Close:


End of the day: Oil price jumped today afternoon after OPEC agreed to cut production at meeting in Algeria. OPEC will cap output at 32.5 million barrels from 33.2 million barrels a day. But the groups won’t cut until November, when full details are likely to be firmed up at official meeting in Austria. The lower end of production target equates to a nearly 750,000 barrel a gay drop from what OPEC said it pumped in August while there will be more Surplus supply of oil from Russia, Libya, Iran and Nigeria throughout the year.

9/29/2016

1. US Dollar Index: The dollar pushed higher against the other major currency today morning after data showed U.S. second-quarter growth was upwardly revised more than expected and that U.S. jobless claims rose less than expected last week. Official data showed that the third estimate of U.S. second quarter gross domestic product showed growth of 1.4%, revised from previous reading of a 1.1% expansion. Analyst had expected a growth rate of 1.3%. In addition, the U.S. department of Labor said initial jobless claims in the week ending September 24 increased by 3,000 to 25,000 from previous week’s total of 251,000. Analyst expected jobless claim to raise by 9,000 to 260,000 last week.

2. Weekly petroleum Status report(EIA): EIA released its inventory report yesterday at 10:30 am E.T. US crude oil refinery input (9/28/2016) = 16.3mb/d (-253,000 b/d from previous week)US crude import (9/28/2016) = 7.8mb/d (-474,000 b/d from previous week) US Commercial crude inventories (9/28/2016) = 502.7mb (-1.9 mb from previous week)

3. Baker and Hughes weekly rig count:B&H Will release its weekly rig count tomorrow at 1 pm (E.T.) U.S. rig count on 9/23/2016 (+5 from previous week)Canada rig count 9/23/2016 (+6 from previous week)International rig count 9/23/2016 (-1 from previous week)



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OPEC made a deal in which production is expected to be reduced to a range of 32.5 to 33 million barrels of oil per day from 33.4 million barrels. Saudi Arabia is expected to give up 350,000 barrels per day. There countries are exempted from the production cuts: Iran, Nigeria and Libya. The Goldman Sachs said it is skeptical about the OPEC deal implementation, the bank said it could add as much as $10 a barrel to oil prices. Libya added 285,000 barrels of oil this month reaching to 485,000 barrels per day as Libya output showing credible increase in production. The $50 billion, world’s most expensive oil field in Kazakhstan is about to come in online. It will add thousands of barrels this year and more in 2017.

My Assumption before US stock market open: Today, crude oil was trading lower after spiked following a surprise agreement by OPEC members to curb production. Russia is not in the part of deal and it will continue to produce more than 11.1 million barrels a day in coming months, so reduction in output to 32.5 million barrels a day doesn’t solve oversupply immediately, but it helps to accelerate to rebalance the market as soon as early 2017. Russia has added 400,000 additional barrel of oil from August according to Bloomberg. Although oil is trading lower today morning, I believe that it will trade higher after U.S. market open because of yesterday’s production cut agreement between OPEC members.

Investment: I will start investment from Monday as oil market settles.



End of the day: OPEC yesterday’s decision to cut the oil production in Algeria, helped to move oil markets today too.

9/30/2016

1. US Dollar Index: The dollar (DXY) was trading 0.35% up in the morning as euro fell on concerns about banks sparked by Deutsche bank’s troubles on toxic mortgages. The dollar remains higher on Friday morning despite the release of U.S. personal spending data. The U.S. commerce department said personal spending was unchanged in August from the prior month, below expectations for a 0.1% rise, and compared to a 0.4% gain in July. Personal income rose by seasonally adjusted 0.2% in August while real personal consumption unexpectedly slipped by seasonally adjusted 0.1% last month missing the expectations of 0.1% gain. Furthermore, Euro Zone’s CPI rose by a 0.4% this month following 0.2% in August.

2. Weekly petroleum Status report(EIA): EIA will release its next inventory report on 10/05/2016 at 10:30 am E.T. US crude oil refinery input (9/28/2016) = 16.3mb/d (-253,000 b/d from previous week)US crude import (9/28/2016) = 7.8mb/d (-474,000 b/d from previous week) US Commercial crude inventories (9/28/2016) = 502.7mb (-1.9 mb from previous week)

3. Baker and Hughes weekly rig count:B&H Will release its weekly rig today at 1 pm (E.T.) (Updated After 1pm)

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U.S. rig count on 9/30/2016 (+11 from previous week)Canada rig count 9/30/2016 (+24 from previous week)International rig count 9/30/2016 (-1 from previous week)


5. Others Daily Geo-Political events and Fed reports: Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen discussed a question whether Fed might one day expand the assets it purchases to include company stocks and corporate bonds. By law, the Fed can only now purchase U.S. Treasury securities or Mortgages-backed securities issued by government-sponsored enterprises. Data for July suggests that U.K. economy was more resilient in the wake of the June Brexit vote than may had predicted. Services activities, which accounts 80% of British GDP, rose 0.4% from June to July suggesting no evidence of a significant impact of the outcome of the EU referendum. According to the orbital insights Inc., China, the world’s largest energy consumer, may have stored more oil than official estimated fearing that country can manipulate oil price by using its inventory. Today Baker and Hughes will release rig count at 1 pm expecting that there will be further increase in rig count.

My Assumption before US stock market open: Today, European stocks tumbled, Asian stocks finished mostly lower and U.S. stock futures fell over concerns about the financial health of Deutsche Bank. The Bank’s share falls to record low. The stock declined 6.7% yesterday in NYSE after Bloomberg reported that a group of hedge fund that do derivatives business with the bank has reduced their exposure. Brent crude Oil was trading lower before trading period, as investors doubts that OPEC will deliver on an accord to reduce production. I believe, the oil stocks and crude oil will continue trade higher due to OPEC’s production cutting agreement. Oil may trade lower after 1 pm if there is increase in Baker and Hughes Rig count otherwise it will rise.

Investment: I will start investment from Monday as oil market tend to settle.



End of the day: Although U.S. has Added 11 rigs and Canada has added 24 rigs in past week, OPEC decision to cut the oil production in Algeria, helped to raise oil markets today despite of increasing rig count.

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