INADEM Conference 2015: The Shifting Media-Consumption Landscape
OIL & ENERGY MARKETS: SHIFTING LANDSCAPE, TRADING ...
Transcript of OIL & ENERGY MARKETS: SHIFTING LANDSCAPE, TRADING ...
OIL & ENERGY MARKETS:
SHIFTING LANDSCAPE, TRADING OPPORTUNITIES
June 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,
Trading Opportunities 1
Gunvor – Integrated Global Trading
June 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,
Trading Opportunities 2
A Balanced Trading Portfolio
Crude Oil(60%)
Fuel Oil
Gasoil
Gasoline
Naphtha
LPGBiofuel
Crude Oil (30%)
Fuel Oil
Gasoil
NatGas + LNG
Coal
Gasoline
Naphtha LPG Biofuel
2009: 98 MT mn 2012: 130 MT mn
June 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,
Trading Opportunities 3
GEOGRAPHICAL
EXPANSION
PRODUCT
DIVERSIFICATION
INVESTMENTS
ALONG THE
VALUE CHAIN
• New Offices
• New Partnerships
• Expanded Trading
• New Desks
• Acquisitions
• Greenfield Projects
• Brownfield Projects
Group Strategy
June 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,
Trading Opportunities 4
• Ust Luga Oil Products Terminal (Russia) 100%
• Ust Luga Crude Oil Pipeline (Russia) 50%
• Novorossiysk Fuel Oil Terminal (Russia) 50%
• Petroterminal de Panama, S.A. (Panama) 16%
• Independent Belgium Refinery BV (Belgium) 100%
• Gunvor Raffinerie Deutschland GmbH (Germany) 100%
• TAL Pipeline (Italy, Austria, Germany) 10%
Signal Peak (United States) 33%
• LLC Kolmar (Russia) 30%
• Keaton Energy Holdings Ltd (South Africa) 24%
• Lagansky Block (Caspian Sea) 30%
Midstream
Downstream
Upstream
Gunvor – Investment Strategy
Across the Value Chain
June 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,
Trading Opportunities 5
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Inter-fuel & inter-region price divergence
LNG Japan cif US Henry Hub
OECD crude imports NW Eur steam coal
A Changing Oil & Energy Price Backdrop
Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape, Trading Opportunities
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US refiner crude stocks, kb
Price-inventory relationship weakens after 2004
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80000 85000 90000 95000 100000 105000 110000 115000 120000
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US refiner crude stocks, kb
Price-inventory relationship weakens after 2004
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80000 85000 90000 95000 100000 105000 110000 115000 120000
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US refiner crude stocks, kb
Price-inventory relationship weakens after 2004
98-03
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Jan09 Aug09 Mar10 Sep10 Apr11 Nov11 Jun12 Jan13
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Crude price & economic expectations
S&P500 ICE Brent
6 June 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,
Trading Opportunities
Changing Financial Framework Too
Public equity & debt offerings of physical commodity traders, $US billion
An Evolving U.S. Oil Landscape
7 June 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,
Trading Opportunities
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US crude oil production
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US net oil products exporter since mid-2011
Total products imports Total products exports
Graphic: Financial Times
Other New Upstream Hotspots Too..
…Many with High Political or Infrastructure Risk
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/d
The IEA view on Iraqi supply potential
Central scenario
High case
Iraq: physical potential, logistic/political barriers
8 June 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,
Trading Opportunities
Source: IEA 2012
June 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,
Trading Opportunities 9
Global Trade and GDP Growth
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Economic risks & oil demand
oil demand impact IMF 09/11 IMF 10/12
low growth IMF 4/13
source: WTO
Macro Outlook Uncertainty
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Oil demand growth now an emerging market story
OECD growth China growth Other non OECD growth
Energy Demand: Relentless Shift to Emerging Markets
Primary Energy Growth 2011-2030 Source: BP Energy Outlook 2030
10 June 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,
Trading Opportunities
Oil & Transport Grab the Headlines,
but Power Sector Runs on Coal
source: IEA World Energy Outlook, 2012
source: ExxonMobil, Energy Outlook 2013
11 June 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,
Trading Opportunities
Rising Gas Supplies & Inroads to the Transport Sector
Source: IEA MTGMR 2012
Source: ExxonMobil
New LNG Supplies 2011-2017
12 June 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,
Trading Opportunities
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oil demand growth GDP growth
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Oil intensity, bbl/$000 GDP
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China Looms Large as Oil & Energy Demand Motor
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China accounts for 45% of incremental hydrocarbon energy 1981-2011
China
RoW
World
13 June 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,
Trading Opportunities
June 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,
Trading Opportunities 14
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Margins unexpectedly strong in 2012...
...but weaker ex-US in 2013
SING Crack Dubai N.WE crack Brent Med Crack Urals
USG crack LLS Chicago crack WTI
New East of Suez Capacity
Puts European Refining Under Pressure
• Declining local demand, plus surge in new capacity east of Suez…
• …means focus of rationalisation is in Europe
• North America shielded by cheap feedstock & energy costs
• Some OECD Asian capacity benefits from proximity to growth markets
• Distressed capacity being converted to storage, sold to NOCs & trading
companies or closed
IEA 2012
Rising Refined Products Trade
• US is already seeing rising crude output, less imports, maturing oil
demand, so trade shifts to products exports
• New refining capacity in the Middle East and other producing areas,
emergence of India and China as exporters of key products
• Global products trade may grow faster than crude in the next decade
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Refining additions vs oil demand growth 2011-2017
Primary refining additions Oil demand growth
15 June 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,
Trading Opportunities
June 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,
Trading Opportunities 16
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01 January 2010
01 January 2012
01 January 2014
01 January 2016
01 January 2018
01 January 2020
01 January 2022
01 January 2024
SU
LP
HU
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AP
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IMO/Global
IMO/ECA
EU
CARB
HFO
MDO/MGO
MGO
LSFO
MGO MDO
Bunker Sulphur Specs Will Affect Trade Too
Pump It Move It Refine It Store It Sell It Move It
17 May 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,
Trading Opportunities
A Bright Future for the Trading Companies
Assets must enhance, or benefit from, core business
• More diversified geographically, across products
and along the value chain
• But trading remains central
May 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,
Trading Opportunities
Thank you for your attention