www.csiro.au

Oil, Alternative Transport Fuels and Atmospheric Emissions

Tom BeerStream Leader, Alternative Fuels

19 July 2006 – RACI Symposium “Energy Sources Old and New”CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research & Energy Transformed Flagship

Why Alternative Fuels for Australia?

Sources: APPEA Submission to Senate Inquiry into Australia’s Future Oil Supply and Alternative Transport FuelsBTRE Working Paper 61: Is the world running out of oil?

Why Alternative Fuels?

Conventional Alternative Fuels

Aquadiesel

Diesel & BiodieselEthanol

H2

LPG

Biofuels

Greenhouse Gases and Air QualityPolicy Options

In general, measures to reduce greenhouse gases will reduce air pollution(and vice versa)

Greenhouse Gases

CO2

CH4

N2O

Air Quality

PM10

NMVOC

NOx

CO

SO2

O3But not always!!

Greenhouse Gases and Air QualityPossibly Perverse Policy Preferences

GHG

AQ

Good Bad

Bad

GoodMost

GHG and AQAbatement

Greenhouse gas accounting rules

A 100% renewable fuel emits zero greenhouse gases.

Thus the total life-cycle becomes important

Methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) also need to be considered.

http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gl/invs1.htm

Life Cycle Analysis (Full Fuel Cycle or Well-To-Wheel analysis)

Passenger vehiclesAustralia 2002

8853925

198615 152912

784

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

10000000

Petrol Diesel LPG OtherNote the logarithmic scale

Alternative fuelsLPG

Ford Futura LPG AU Series IIDedicated LPG vehicle

Life Cycle - Fuels

Extraction

Production

Transportation and storage

Fuel processing

Conversion

Distribution

Vehicle operations

Tailpipe results

http://www.lpga.co.uk/ai_mem/secure/pdf/Road%20Fuel%20Gases%20Consultation%20Response.pdf

European EmissionsTesting Programme(EETP)

Results GHG

European Drive Cycle

Exbodied greenhouse gas emissions

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

ULP Euro LPG Autogas2nd Gen

LPG Propane2nd Gen

PULP Euro4 LPG Autogas3rd Gen

LPG Propane3rd Gen

CNG Diesel - Euro 4

kg C

arbo

n di

oxid

e pe

r km

(ED

C c

ycle

fam

ily v

ehic

le)

Methane (Upstream)

Carbon dioxide (Upstream)

Carbon dioxide (Tailpipe)

Other

Results PM

European Drive Cycle

Exbodied PM(10) emissions

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

ULP Euro LPG Autogas2nd Gen

LPG Propane2nd Gen

PULP Euro4 LPG Autogas3rd Gen

LPG Propane3rd Gen

CNG Diesel - Euro 4

mg

PM(1

0)pe

r km

(ED

C c

ycle

fam

ily v

ehic

le)

Upstream otherUpstream urbanTailpipe

Results comparison

European Drive Cycle

Biofuels – manufacture and use

Biodiesel in Vienna (2002)

Ethanol in Canada (2005)

Mossman sugar mill

Nowra wheat starch distillery

Biodieselis cheaperthandiesel

CSIRO/ABARE/BTRE Biofuels Study

Studies were based on

30 ML Biodieselfrom waste oil

(used as B100) in heavy vehicles

280 ML ethanol

(used as E10) in cars

http://www.btre.gov.au/docs/joint_reports/biofuels/BiofuelsStudy.aspx

Results – Greenhouse Gas Balance

E10

Results – Quantified uncertainties

Distribution for % change GHG emissions per km from E10 (wheat starch waste) compared to ULP (passenger

vehicles)

Mean = -3.591381X <=-13.07

5%X <=6.19

95%

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

E10

Results - PM

Results – Air Quality

Health Cost-Benefits

Most health costs arise from PM emissions

PM from car tailpipes unchanged using E10

PM from biodiesel (B100) decreases

But little uptake of B100.

The $3million savings arise from the replacement of petrol refineries (in the city) with ethanol refineries (in the bush)

Greenhouse Gases and Air QualityE10 comparison with petrol

GHG

AQ

Better

85%

Worse

15%

Worse

17%

Better

83% 71%

14%

12%

3%

Greenhouse Gases and Air QualityComparison with petrol

GHG

AQ

Better Worse

Worse

BetterE10

Results - GHG

Full life cycle ("well to wheel", WTW) greenhouse gas results per kmfor rigid trucks (RT) fuelled with LSD based biodiesel

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

BiodieselcanolaBD100

BiodieselcanolaBD20

Biodieselcanola BD5

BiodieseltallowBD100

BiodieseltallowBD20

Biodieseltallow BD5

Biodieselw aste oilBD100

Biodieselw aste oil

BD20

Biodieselw aste oil

BD5

LS diesel

kg C

O2-

e pe

r km

GHG (Upstream) GHG (Tailpipe)

Results - PM

Full life cycle ("well to wheel", WTW) PM10 emissions per km for articulated trucks (AT)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

BiodieselcanolaBD100

BiodieselcanolaBD20

Biodieselcanola BD5

BiodieseltallowBD100

Biodieseltallow BD20

Biodieseltallow BD5

Biodieselw aste oilBD100

Biodieselw aste oil

BD20

Biodieselw aste oil

BD5

LS diesel

mg

PM

10 p

er k

m

Results – GHG Uncertainties

Distribution for % change / Biodiesel (canola ESB) per km BD100 - RT/D26

Mean reduction = -25.19795BD100 canola vs. LS dieselMean reduction = -30.21397

BD100 tallow vs. LS diesel

Mean reduction = -90.06628

X <=-17.8895%

X <=-32.565%

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

-120 -80 -40 0

Waste Oil

Tallow Canola

Results – PM Uncertainties

Distribution for % change in PM emissions per km from BD tallow compared to LS diesel (rigid truck)

Mean = -31.87503X <=-59.32

5%X <=-1.8

95%

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

-80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30

Greenhouse Gases and Air QualityBiofuels

GHG

AQ

Better Worse

Worse

BetterE10Canola

TallowWaste

oil

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

LS diesel Hydrogen (fromnatural gas)

LS diesel Hydrogen (fromnatural gas)

LS diesel Hydrogen (fromnatural gas)

kg/MJ kg/t-km kg/p-km

kg C

O2-

eq

PrecombustionCombustion

Greenhouse Gases and Air QualityThe Hydrogen Economy …

Hydrogen

Hydrogen needs to be made from renewables to be Greenhouse Friendly

Electrolysis via solar, wind, tidal power

Fuel cells powered with renewable fuel (ethanol, biodiesel, geosequestered GTL diesel)

Nuclear

Greenhouse Gases and Air QualityPossibly Perverse Policy Preferences

GHG

AQ

Good Bad

Bad

Good

H2

Coal Gasification

http://www.det.csiro.au/PDF%20files/Energy%20%20Transport%20Sector%20Outlook%202020.pdf

Other unconventional fuels(Methane based)

Methanol

DME – dimethylether

Methylal – DMM dimethoxymethane

Hythane

Montreal Urban Hythane Bus

Aquadiesel

Well to Tank (WTT) and Tank to Wheel (TTW) PM emissions per km

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Aquadiesel LS LS Diesel CNG Melbourne CNG Sydney Biodiesel 100% Biodiesel 20%

mg

PM10

per

km

Tailpipe Precombustion

Slightly Lower GHGMuch lower PMMuch lower COLower NOxHigher HC than LSD

Fischer-Tropsch DieselGas to Liquids

Sasol synthetic petroleum refinerySecunda, South Africa

Oil from Shale, Bitumen, Tar

Shale OilQueensland(Pacific Twins)*

Heavy OilOrinoco, Venezuela

TarAthabasca, Canada

*Southern Pacific Petroleum NL, Central Pacific Minerals NL

(a) Massive hydrate appears on the rear well

of the fishing boat. Red objects are fish

and dark objects are hard rocks, probably

carbonate. There was a slight yellow tinge

to the hydrate, possibly indicating a

component of higher hydrocarbons.

(b) Methane hydrate is shown after it was

shoveled off the fishing boat and back

into the water

Gas Hydrates

Gas hydrates estimated potential = 2 times the fossil fuels globally

Within EEZ of India = 120 Trillion cubic mt

Known or inferred occurrences of gas hydrates in offshore sediments

Hybrid vehicles

Electricity as a fuel

Toyota PriusHondaCivicPrius 4.4L/100km

106 g CO2/km

Civic 5.2L/100km125 g CO2/km

Hybrid Electric Vehicles

The Fuel TriangleCase studies are needed

Consumer acceptance and purchase

Vehicle technologyand availability

Infrastructureand fuelavailability

Australia LPG

Argentina/Italy CNG

Brazil/USA Ethanol

Austria Biodiesel

Fuel for Thought

Energy Transformed

Flagship

The CSIRO Response

Energy Transformed Flagship•Double the efficiency by which fuel is utilised for energy, thereby reducing the supply side requirements.

•Halve energy losses in end-use processes, thereby reducing the projected growth in energy demand.

•Double fuel efficiency and greatly expand the use of gas (including hydrogen) in vehicles, further reducing energy demand, and also oil imports.

2020 Vision and Goals

Energy Transformed Flagship

www.energytransformed.csiro.au

Research Programs

FUELS

Future Directions Fuel triangle: countrycomparisons

Examine Exotic Fuels:Methanol, DME#, DMM*Shale Oil

Examine new policy optionsSelective CatalyticReduction

Australian test data*Dimethoxymethane#Dimethylether

What is needed?

www.csiro.au

Thank You

Contact

Tom BeerPhone: +61 3 9239 4400Email:tom.beer@csiro.auWeb: www.csiro.au

Contact CSIRO

Phone: 1300 363 400+61 3 9545 2176Email: enquiries@csiro.auWeb: www.csiro.au