O&G PROJECTIONS USED IN NEPA AND REGIONAL O&G INVENTORY STUDIESAmnon Bar-Ilan, John GrantRamboll Environ

Tom MooreWESTAR-WRAP

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• Background

• O&G Activity and Emissions Forecasts

• Project-level

• Regional

OUTLINE

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• Project Level Studies (NEPA)

• Incorporation of project-level O&G activity forecast (typically provided by operator)

• Future project activity and emissions considered separately from activity decline and emissions from existing wells

• Several NEPA Project studies have been developed in the Intermountain West such as Continental Divide-Creston (WY) EIS, Monument Buttes (UT) EIS.

NEPA Resource Management Plans (RMPs) are required for BLM Field offices. BLM has developed studies to support RMPs such as Colorado Air Resource Management Modeling Study.

• Regional Studies (WESTAR-WRAP)

• Area-wide O&G activity trends forecast

• Typically based on trends across all wells

• Low, medium, and high scenarios

BACKGROUND

𝐸𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑠𝐹𝑌 = 𝐸𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑠𝐵𝑌 ×𝐴𝑐𝑡𝐹𝑌𝐴𝑐𝑡𝐵𝑌

× 𝐶𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑙𝐹𝑐𝑡𝑟

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GENERAL O&G ACTIVITY FORECAST METHODOLOGY

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Forecast Production

Historical Active Well Count (Declined)

Base Year Production (Declined)

Well Production Decline Curve

Forecast Drilling

Schedule

Forecast Active Well Count

SAMPLE REGIONAL STUDIES

Study1 States Basins or AreaBase Year

Future Year(s) Reference Web link

Montana and Dakotas (WESTAR-WRAP & BLM)

ND, MT, SD Williston, Great Plains 2011 2015 https://www.wrapair2.org/ND-SD-MT.aspx

Greater San Juan and Permian (WESTAR-WRAP & BLM) CO, NM Greater San Juan and Permian 2014 2028 https://www.wrapair2.org/SanJuanPermian.aspx

WRAP Phase III (WESTAR-WRAP & Western Energy Alliance)

CO, NM, UT, WY, MT

DJ, Piceance, Uinta, N. San Juan, S. San Juan, Powder River, Green

River, Wind River 20062010-2015 https://www.wrapair2.org/phaseiii.aspx

WRAP Phase II (WESTAR-WRAP)

AK, CO, NM, UT, WY, MT

Permian, S. San Juan, N. San Juan Basin, Uinta-Piceance, Denver,

Paradox, Green River, Wind River, Big Horn, Powder River 2002 2018

https://www.wrapair.org/forums/ogwg/Phases_I_and_II_Inventories.html

WRAP GHG Protocol Study(WESTAR-WRAP)

AK, CA, CO,

NM, UT, WY, MT

Entire WRAP region including Alaska, California, and all western

and mountain states 2006 NAhttps://www.wrapair.org/ClimateChange/GHGProtocol/docs.html

Uinta Basin AQS(UTDAQ) UT Uinta Basin 2006 2011

https://deq.utah.gov/locations/U/uintahbasin/ozone/docs/2014/08Aug/2011UintaBasinOilGasEmissionsEstimates.pdf

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1 Other sample studies: Northeast Texas O&G Emission Inventory Ramboll Environ (2015)

SAMPLE NEPA STUDIES

Study1 Basins or Area Base YearFuture Year(s) Reference Web link

Continental Divide-Creston (BLM) Green River 2008 2009-2037

https://eplanning.blm.gov/epl-front-office/eplanning/planAndProjectSite.do?methodName=renderDefaultPlanOrProjectSite&projectId=58344

CARMMS 1.0 (BLM) Colorado State 2011 2012-2021 web link unavailable

CARMMS 1.5 (BLM)Colorado State & N. New Mexico 2011 2012-2021

https://www.blm.gov/sites/blm.gov/files/uploads/program_natural%20resources_soil%20air%20water_airco_quick%20link_CARMMS1.5.pdf

CARMMS 2.0 (BLM)Colorado State & N. New Mexico 2015 2016-2025

https://www.blm.gov/sites/blm.gov/files/documents/files/program_natural%20resources_soil%20air%20water_airco_quicklins_CARMMS2.0.pdf

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1 Other sample studies: Monument Butte FEIS, BLM and BIA Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas Air Quality Study

• Typically BLM and/or operator initiated process to provide construction and drilling plans, decline curves, and production schedules

• Project Inventory

• O&G activity: Drilled Wells + Production Decline Curve

• Emission factors: By source category

• Based on operator provided wellpad configurations

• Controls: Operator input on methods to meet on-the-books regulations

• Existing Wells Inventory

• O&G activity: Apply production decline to existing wells

• Emission factors: By source category

• Controls: Year specific

NEPA EXAMPLE: METHODS

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NEPA EXAMPLE: PROJECT WELL O&G ACTIVITY SCHEDULES

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NEPA EXAMPLE: PROJECT WELL O&G ACTIVITY SCHEDULES

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NEPA EXAMPLE: PROJECT WELL EQUIPMENT SAMPLE

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NEPA EXAMPLE: PROJECT WELL CONTROLS SAMPLE

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NEPA EXAMPLE INVENTORY

0

720

1,440

2,160

2,880

3,600

4,320

5,040

5,760

6,480

7,200

2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036

Emis

sio

ns

(TP

Y)

Existing Well NOx Emissions By Source Category Evaporation Pond

Condensate Tanks

Compressor Station

Gas Plant

Well Venting

Workovers

Production Flaring

Tank Loadout

Production Traffic

Pneumatic Pumps

Pneumatic Devices

Heaters

Fugitive Devices

Dehydrators

Initial Completions

Completion Traffic

Completion Equipment

Drilling Traffic

Drilling

Construction Traffic

Construction Equipment

Construction Dust

0

680

1,360

2,040

2,720

3,400

4,080

4,760

5,440

6,120

6,800

2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036

Emis

sio

ns

(TP

Y)

New Project Well NOx Emissions By Source Category Evaporation Pond

Condensate Tanks

Compressor Station

Gas Plant

Well Venting

Workovers

Production Flaring

Tank Loadout

Production Traffic

Pneumatic Pumps

Pneumatic Devices

Heaters

Fugitive Devices

Dehydrators

Initial Completions

Completion Traffic

Completion Equipment

Drilling Traffic

Drilling

Construction Traffic

Construction Equipment

Construction Dust

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NEPA EXAMPLE INVENTORY

0

680

1,360

2,040

2,720

3,400

4,080

4,760

5,440

6,120

6,800

2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036

Emis

sio

ns

(TP

Y)

All Well NOx Emissions By Source CategoryEvaporation Pond

Condensate Tanks

Compressor Station

Gas Plant

Well Venting

Workovers

Production Flaring

Tank Loadout

Production Traffic

Pneumatic Pumps

Pneumatic Devices

Heaters

Fugitive Devices

Dehydrators

Initial Completions

Completion Traffic

Completion Equipment

Drilling Traffic

Drilling

Construction Traffic

Construction Equipment

Construction Dust

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NEPA EXAMPLE INVENTORY

0

6,160

12,320

18,480

24,640

30,800

36,960

43,120

49,280

55,440

61,600

2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036

Emis

sio

ns

(TP

Y)

Existing Well VOC Emissions By Source Category Evaporation Pond

Condensate Tanks

Compressor Station

Gas Plant

Well Venting

Workovers

Production Flaring

Tank Loadout

Production Traffic

Pneumatic Pumps

Pneumatic Devices

Heaters

Fugitive Devices

Dehydrators

Initial Completions

Completion Traffic

Completion Equipment

Drilling Traffic

Drilling

Construction Traffic

Construction Equipment

Construction Dust

0

6,160

12,320

18,480

24,640

30,800

36,960

43,120

49,280

55,440

61,600

2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036

Emis

sio

ns

(TP

Y)

New Project Well VOC Emissions By Source Category Evaporation Pond

Condensate Tanks

Compressor Station

Gas Plant

Well Venting

Workovers

Production Flaring

Tank Loadout

Production Traffic

Pneumatic Pumps

Pneumatic Devices

Heaters

Fugitive Devices

Dehydrators

Initial Completions

Completion Traffic

Completion Equipment

Drilling Traffic

Drilling

Construction Traffic

Construction Equipment

Construction Dust

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NEPA EXAMPLE INVENTORY

0

6,160

12,320

18,480

24,640

30,800

36,960

43,120

49,280

55,440

61,600

2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036

Emis

sio

ns

(TP

Y)

All Well VOC Emissions By Source CategoryEvaporation Pond

Condensate Tanks

Compressor Station

Gas Plant

Well Venting

Workovers

Production Flaring

Tank Loadout

Production Traffic

Pneumatic Pumps

Pneumatic Devices

Heaters

Fugitive Devices

Dehydrators

Initial Completions

Completion Traffic

Completion Equipment

Drilling Traffic

Drilling

Construction Traffic

Construction Equipment

Construction Dust

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• O&G Activity Forecast

• Depends on data available

• O&G Controls

• Local/state/federal programs

• Account for phase-in of “new source” standards

REGIONAL EXAMPLE: METHODS

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Sample Forecast Methods

Historical Trends-e.g., Great Plains Basin, several WRAP Phase III Basins

3rd Party O&G Activity Forecast Study-e.g., Williston Basin, WRAP Phase III Denver Basin

EIA Forecast-e.g., Permian Basin

NEPA Forecast + Historical Trends-e.g., Great Plains Basin, several WRAP Phase III Basins

Historical Trends w/ basin specific decline-WRAP Phase III Uinta,Wind River, and Piceance Basins

Historical Trends w/ Production to meet LNG Facility Buildouts

-Northeast Texas

• O&G Activity Metrics

• Well counts by type (gas, oil, total)

• Spud counts by type (gas, oil, total)

• Gas production by type (primary, associated, total)

• Liquid hydrocarbon production by type (oil, condensate, total)

• Total gas processed

• Total casinghead gas flared

• Sub-basin areas

• Bakken Formation Counties;

• Cedar Creek Anticline

• All Other Counties

REGIONAL EXAMPLE: WILLISTON O&G ACTIVITY FORECAST

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REGIONAL EXAMPLE: O&G ACTIVITY FORECASTWILLISTON EXAMPLE: OIL WELL COUNT

Cedar Creek SubareaBakken Subarea

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REGIONAL EXAMPLE: O&G ACTIVITY FORECASTWILLISTON EXAMPLE: OIL PRODUCTION

Cedar Creek SubareaBakken Subarea

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REGIONAL EXAMPLE: APPLICABLE REGULATORY PROGRAMS

Federal State of Montana State of North Dakota

Nonroad engine Tier standards (1-4)

MT ARM 36.22.1221Completion venting controls. NDAC 33-15-07 and Bakken Pool

O&G Control Permitting & Compliance Guidance

Tank ControlsNonroad diesel fuel sulfur

standards

MT ARM 17.8.1603(1)(b)VOC vapors from oil or

condensate storage tanks

New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) Subpart JJJJ for

Spark-Ignition Engines

MT ARM 17.8.1711(1)(b)Liquids loading/unloading NDAC 33-15-07

Submerged filling requirements New Source Performance

Standards (NSPS) Subpart OOOO for Oil and Gas Sources MT ARM 17.8.1711(1)(a), MT

ARM 17.8.1603(1)(a), MT ARM 17.8.752, MT ARM

17.8.1711(1)(a)VOC vapors from O&G well facility

equipment

National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants

(NESHAP), Subpart HH for Dehydrators Order No. 24665

Casinghead gas flaringMinor Source Reporting

Requirements on Indian Tribal Land

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REGIONAL EXAMPLE: EMISSION CONTROL FACTOR ASSUMPTIONS

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REGIONAL EXAMPLE: SAMPLE RESULTS

• Casinghead gas venting and oil tank emissions are largest sources of VOC emissions

• Forecasted substantial growth in oil and associated gas production from 2011 to 2015

• State and Federal regulations in place to reduce emission rates from these sources:

• North Dakota Department of Health NDAC 33-15-07 and Bakken Pool O&G Control Permitting & Compliance GuidanceTank Controls

• North Dakota Industrial Commission Order No. 24665 for Casinghead gas flaring

• Administrative Rules of Montana MT ARM 17.8.1603(1)(b)

• NSPS Subpart OOOO 22

REGIONAL EXAMPLE: SAMPLE RESULTS

• Oil production growth forecast

• 166% growth from 2011 to 2015

• Oil tank controls

• 2011:

• Montana & North Dakota: 90% controlled

• 2015:

• Montana: 98% controlled

• North Dakota: 100% controlled

• VOC emissions change from 2011 to 2015

• 46% VOC emission reduction

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REGIONAL EXAMPLE: SAMPLE RESULTS

• Associated gas production growth forecast

• 191% growth from 2011 to 2015

• Casinghead gas controls

• 2011: 63% captured, 37% flared

• 2015: 75% captured, 25% flared

• VOC emissions change from 2011 to 2015

• 62% VOC emissions growth

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SUMMARY

• NEPA

• Several studies available with project specific assumptions

• Challenge: Coverage is generally not comprehensive over a basin

• Area-specific O&G activity and emission forecasts

• Reviewed by operators and F/S/L/T agencies

• Potential use

• O&G activity forecasts to incorporate into regional inventories

• O&G emission inventory to incorporate in regional inventories

• Challenge: Past studies may not include all emission control programs

• Regional Studies

• Several studies available with region specific assumptions

• Comprehensive over regional study area

• O&G activity forecasts tailored based on available data (NEPA studies, O&G activity studies, historical trends, economy forecasts)

• Reviewed by F/S/L/T agencies

• Challenge: Studies have different future years and methods

• Challenge: Past studies may not include the most recent emission control programs

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QUESTIONS?

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