Offshore wind outlook - Microsoft · •This World Energy Outlook special report is the most...

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

Offshore wind outlook

Copenhagen, 25 October

Dr. Fatih Birol, Executive Director, IEA


Context

• There is a growing disconnect between climate ambitions and real-life energy and emission

trends

• There is no single and simple solution to address environmental challenges: renewables,

efficiency, CCUS & other technologies are all required, but most of them are off track

• Offshore wind power provided 0.3% of global electricity supply in 2018, but the market has

grown by almost 30% per year since 2010, second only to solar

• This World Energy Outlook special report is the most comprehensive global study on offshore

wind to date and includes:

- New global assessment of offshore wind’s potential, based on the latest satellite data and

turbine designs

- Country analysis of competitiveness with other sources of electricity

- Its role within the entire energy system and global energy transitions


Energy-related CO2 emissions hit a record high…

The need to accelerate clean energy transitions is underscored by recent data: CO2 emissions rose for a

second year in a row in 2018 to reach a record high

Annual change in global energy-related CO2 emissions, 2014-2018

- 200

0

200

400

600

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

MtC

O2


The rise of SUVs challenges emissions reduction efforts

Change in CO2 emissions by energy sector, 2010-2018

SUVs were the second-largest contributor to the increase in global CO2 emissions since 2010.

They are taking over the roads, as they have increased from 35 million in 2010 to over 200 million in 2018.

SUVs Power Heavy

industry

Trucks Aviation Shipping Other

cars

- 400

400

800

1 200

1 600 M

t C

O2


Offshore wind potential

0 10 000 20 000 30 000

European Union

Japan

United States

India

TWh

Offshore wind has huge untapped potential

Based on the latest satellite data on wind speed and new turbine designs, offshore wind has vast potential.

Offshore wind technical potential and electricity demand in 2018

China

Electricity demand

It is capable of generating more than 18-times global electricity demand today.


20

40

60

80

GW

Europe is the technology leader for offshore wind

Europe has fostered the development of offshore wind technology over the past three decades

Offshore wind capacity by country

2018 2030

Others

1991

Denmark

Belgium

France

Netherlands

Germany

United Kingdom

and with current policies it is set to quadruple its capacity by 2030


Offshore wind capacity is set to grow around the world

While European Union continues to be in the driver’s seat through to 2040, China moves strongly

forward and many new markets gain more than a foothold

European Union

China

30 60 90 120 150

GW

Japan

Korea

United States

2018

India


Offshore wind capacity is set to grow around the world

While European Union continues to be in the driver’s seat through to 2040, China moves strongly

forward and many new markets gain more than a foothold

European Union

China

30 60 90 120 150

GW

Japan

Korea

United States

2018

Korea

Japan

United States

2019

Japan

Korea

United States

Japan

2020

United States

Korea

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

India

India

Japan

2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040


Completed in 2018

with enabling conditions

Bigger turbines, technology learning and low financing costs are driving down costs of new projects.

Policy frameworks enabling low-cost financing are essential to drive offshore wind towards competitiveness.

Right policy frameworks support offshore wind’s competitiveness

Global offshore wind average generation costs

40

80

120

160

Completed in 2018

with market risk

Expected in 2025

Do

llars

pe

r M

Wh

Financing

at 4%

O&M

Construction

cost


Technology improvements are raising wind offshore’s productivity

New offshore wind projects have high capacity factors that are on par with efficient gas in several regions,

though offshore wind is not always available to meet demand.

World annual capacity factors by technology

20%

40%

60%

Efficient gas Solar PV Offshore wind Onshore wind

80%


A carbon neutral Europe puts offshore wind in front

Offshore wind is set to become the largest source of electricity in the European Union by 2040,

complementing other renewables towards a fully decarbonised power system

Shares of electricity generation by technology in the European Union, Sustainable Development Scenario

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Onshore wind

Nuclear

Bioenergy

Solar PV Hydro

Natural gas

Coal

Offshore wind


Offshore wind is well suited for hydrogen production

Decarbonisation of heat and transport could further increase demand for hydrogen,

opening new market opportunities for offshore wind

Norway

Germany

Denmark

United Kingdom Netherlands

Sweden

Belgium

France

North Sea Hub

Czech Republic

Poland

Luxembourg


Conclusions

• Offshore wind is set to be a $1 trillion industry over the next two decades, but the promise of

growth hinges on government policies and industry strategies

• Policy makers need to provide long-term visibility for supply chains to be efficient, and need

to manage maritime planning and onshore grid development

• Offshore wind can become one of the most competitive sources of electricity if market

conditions are right and technology cost reductions materialise

• Offshore wind contributes to electricity security and makes energy transitions more

affordable. Hydrogen and further innovations, such as floating turbines, expand opportunities

• The IEA will continue to focus on “all fuels and all technologies” to provide the world’s best

energy data, independent & rigorous analysis & real-world solutions

Offshore wind outlook - Microsoft · •This World Energy Outlook special report is the most...

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