offrs.com - Predictive Analytics in Real Estate
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Transcript of offrs.com - Predictive Analytics in Real Estate
Predicting the FutureBig Data, Predictive Analytics, Artificial Intelligence
SPEAKER: Rich Swier, Co-Founder offrs.com
The Future of Real Estate Learning Lab Series
Rich Swier
What is Predictive Analytics?
COLLECT & ANALYZE DATA
(hindsight)
IDENTIFY PATTERNS
(insight)
MAKE PREDICTIONS
(foresight)
How can we predict the future?● Big Data
○ Starts with Data (Historical showing trends, Profile, Behavioral)
● Algorithms
○ Algorithms are developed to model predictions
● Validation
○ Predictions are matched against actual events to verify
….. RINSE AND REPEAT
What type of Data?● Property Data
○ Sales Details, Property, Location, Demographics, Similar Properties
● Consumer Data
○ Demographics, Financial, Life Events
● Behavioral
○ Activities on Internet, Response to Marketing, 3rd Party Validation
Example of Homeowner
Number of Years Owned
Market Value Open Loans
Bedrooms Size Location
Similar Inventory Current Listings
Age Married
Kids Age Financials
Investor Occupation
Loan Type Credit
FIXED DATA VARIABLE DATA
Visited Zillow Last Week
Applied for Loan New Property
Posted Resume or Changed Jobs in new City
What type of Algorithms?● Machine Learning
○ Next stop: Artificial Intelligence
● Regression Techniques
○ Modeling based on combination of different variables
… constantly modeling and training
Validation
PREDICT LISTING
1212 CHERRY LANE
78
MLS1212 CHERRY LANELISTED FOR SALE
TAX RECORD1212 CHERRY LANE
PROPERTY SOLD
Why Predicting Future Listings is valuable● 70% of homeowners choose first agent in the door.
● Cost of Marketing to everyone is expensive and inefficient.
● Passive Marketing is becoming less effective. Proactive
prospecting and relationship building will be how you will
drive listings.
● It’s the path to Automated Marketing.
Smart Data vs Dumb DataSmart Data greatly reduces the number of homeowners you need to prospect or target with marketing.
An agent with an average neighborhood with 2,000 homes can focus on 400 homeowners scored high with our algorithm.
Dumb Data Smart Data
How can it improve Marketing?
Social Media
Phone
Direct Mail
MARKETINGCHANNELS
Meet in Person
Online Ads
● Target Marketing
○ Right Message, Right Time
● Repetition
○ It takes 20 touches to get a listing.
● Cost
○ 95% of marketing dollars and time
wasted. Smart Data can reduce that by
60%.
Is Predictive Analytics for you?● Are you currently doing any marketing (phone, email, online, direct mail)?
● Are you currently lacking a database of targets (prospects) to market or farm to
generate listings?
● Are you struggling to get new listings in your area due to the competition out
spending you in marketing?
● Are you looking to expand or go into another area where you don’t have a strong
network or know many people?
● Are you trying to generate listing leads?
There is no Silver Bullet (yet)● Predictive Analytics can provide a big advantage, but you still
need to turn the data into listings.
● Not all Predictive Analytics companies are the same (and
some just flat out lie about using Predictive Analytics)
● Don’t just look at the “prediction” value - look at the total
value of the data, platform and services of each vendor.