Office Russia Off 3q12
Transcript of Office Russia Off 3q12
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7/30/2019 Office Russia Off 3q12
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OVERVIEWAlthough the Russian economy continues
to perform well compared to much of
Europe, growth has slowed from last year
and a sense of caution within the office
market has been maintained. Due to this,
prime rents have held in St Petersburg and suburban Moscow,
but have seen increases in the central area between the
downtown and the suburbs.
OCCUPIER FOCUSDemand for properties has remained relatively stable, with long
negotiation of deals further slowing the market, which meant that
take-up was slightly down on the previous quarter. However,
there is interest in the market, with site visits ongoing, implying a
pick up in activity around the corner. The interest in downtown
Moscow has continued to decrease, as tenants look for cheaper
options elsewhere within the city. This is what caused the
increase in rents in the central area.
This quarter has seen nearly 176,000 sq.m of new quality office
space delivered to the Moscow market, however, most of this is
Class B. Prime office space remains in limited supply. Of the
newly completed offices 40% of the space is still vacant and onthe market. There is approximately 3.2 million sq.m of space
currently under construction and only a fraction 6% of this has
secured a pre-let. A further 8 million sq.m exists as planned
projects that have yet broken ground.
INVESTMENT FOCUSThe third quarter saw office investment volumes of close to450
million, a relatively healthy amount, even if it is somewhat lower
than the800 million of the previous quarter. Even so, office
investment accounted for approximately half of all property asset
volumes, and the majority of buyers this quarter were domestic.
Largely the volumes this quarter were made up from three large
projects that were sold. Prime and secondary yields have seen
increases of 25 basis points this quarter in Moscow, reflecting in
part the reduced level of activity, but also the slowed economic
situation.
OUTLOOKThe economic outlook is for a slightly slowed rate of growth, but
that 2013 in general will outpace 2012. Therefore although
demand and rents are expected to remain stable in the short
term, over the course of next year, an improvement is expected.
With regards to the investment market, similar levels of activity
are anticipated for the last quarter of 2012, and prime yields are
not expected to move further.
MARKET OUTLOOK
Prime Rents: Prime rents are expected to hold.
Prime Yields: There is not expected to be significantmovements in yields in Q4.
Supply: A relatively large speculative pipeline is underconstruction.
Demand: Demand is good, with annual volumes for 2012expected to reach record levels.
PRIME OFFICE RENTS SEPTEMBER 2012
MARKET (SUBMARKET) US$ US$ GROWTH % CAGR
SQ.M/YR SQ.M/YR SQ.FT/YR 5YR 1YR
Moscow (Central) 810 630 75.3 -4.1 1.3
Moscow (Centre A+) 1,170 909 108.7 -3.5 -2.5
Moscow (OOT) 500 389 46.5 -6.5 -10.7
PRIME OFFICE YIELDS SEPTEMBER 2012
MARKET (SUBMARKET)
(FIGURES ARE GROSS, %)
CURRENT LAST LAST 10 YEAR
QUARTER QUARTER YEAR HIGH LOW
Moscow (Central) 8.75 8.50 9.00 16.00 7.25
Moscow (Centre A+)* 8.75 8.50 9.00 13.00 7.00
Moscow (OOT) 8.75 8.50 9.00 17.00 8.00NOTE: * 6 year record
With respect to the yield data provided, in light of the lack of recent comparable market evidence in many areas ofEurope and the changing nature of the market and the costs implicit in any transaction, such as financing, these are verymuch a guide only to indicate the approximate trend and direction of p rime initial yield levels and should not be usedas a comparable for any particular property or transaction without regard to the specifics of the property.
RECENT PERFORMANCE
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
-25.0%
-15.0%
-5.0%
5.0%
15.0%
25.0%
4.00%
6.50%
9.00%
11.50%
14.00%
Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12
AVERAGE PRIME YIELDS (left) RENTAL GROWTH (right)
RUSSIA
OFFICE SNAPSHOTMARKETBEAT
A Cushman & Wakefield Research PublicationQ3 2012