Office of Coast Survey 2013 NOS Coastal Modeling Development and Performance Office of Coast...

Office of Coast Survey

2013 NOS Coastal Modeling Development and Performance

Office of Coast Survey/Development Laboratory,Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services

Jesse C. Feyen ([email protected])4 December 2013


NOS’ Operational Coastal Modeling

• Office of Coast Survey / Coast Survey Development Laboratory / Marine Modeling and Analysis Programs– Focused on research and development– POCs: [email protected], [email protected]

• Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services / Oceanographic Division / Planning Monitoring and Analysis Branch– Focused on transition, operations, and delivery– POC: [email protected]

• Work with NCEP, particularly NCO and EMC, on operations• Collaboration with academic developers of FVCOM, ROMS, and

ADCIRC models

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http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/models.html


Existing NOS OFS Running on WCOSS

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OFS Name Model Domain NCO Implementation

CBOFS Chesapeake Bay 03/2011

DBOFS Delaware Bay 03/2011

TBOFS Tampa Bay 03/2011

NGOFS Northern Gulf of Mexico 03/2012

CREOFS Columbia River 09/2012

GLOFS 5 Great Lakes 12/2010

ESTOFS Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico extratropical storm surge

09/2012


FY13 Accomplishments

• All NOS “Oceanographic Operational Forecast Systems” (OFS) transitioned to WCOSS• OFS output disseminated in SHEF format at

NOS water level gauge locations

• Inundation• Expanded coverage of HFIP-supported

experimental tropical surge predictions using ADCIRC Surge Guidance System

• East Coast and Gulf Coast coverage

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FY14 Plans

• NOS OFS to be transitioned to NCEP– 2 nested Northern Gulf of Mexico models: NWGOFS and

NEGOFS– San Francisco Bay (SFBOFS)

• Inundation– Extratropical Storm Surge (ESTOFS) – Pacific

transitioned to operations– Experimental real-time tropical storm surge ensemble

predictions coupled to experimental hurricane guidance

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FY15-16 Planned Implementations • NOS OFS to be transitioned to NCEP

– Cook Inlet, AK (CIOFS)– Great Lakes OFS upgrades– NE Shelf/Gulf of Maine OFS (support for HAB pred.)

• Inundation– Sandy Supplemental: Development and Transition of

ADCIRC Surge Ensemble for Atlantic Tropical and Extratropical Inundation

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NWGOFSNEGOFS

NGOFSCoastal/Shelf Models

(Bridge between Global model and Estuarine/Bay

models)

Bay/Estuarine Models (high-resolution to

resolve navigational needs)

Nested Operational Forecast Systems for the Northwest and Northeast Gulf of Mexico

Operational FY14 Q3


NEGOFSElement Size: 45 m – 2160 mVertical Sigma Layers: 20

Pascagoula: 45 – 1050 m Mobile Bay: 45 m – 1.5 kmGulfport: 56 m – 986 m


Galveston Bay: 80 – 530 m Sabine Neches: 60 – 540 m

Lake Charles/Lake Calcasieu: 70 – 560 m

Houston/Galveston PORTS

Sabine Neches PORTSLake Charles PORTS

Matagorda Bay PORTS

Element Size: 60 m – 3.5 kmRivers: 2220 Sigma Vertical Layers

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Products from NWGOFS

Water Level

Surface Temperature Surface Salinity

Surface Currents


Products from NEGOFS

Water Level

Surface Temperature Surface Salinity

Surface Currents


San Francisco Bay Operational Forecast System (SFBOFS)

Horizontal Resolution: 15 m – 1500 m20 Vertical Sigma Layers

Bathymetry in meters

Operational FY14 Q2


Products from SFBOFSTidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/sfbofs/sfbofs.html

Water Level

Surface Temperature

Surface Salinity

Surface Currents


Products from SFBOFSTidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/sfbofs/sfbofs.html

Water Level

Surface TemperatureSurface Salinity

Surface Currents


Storm Surge Modeling Efforts• Using ADCIRC model for extratropical (e.g.,

nor’easter) and tropical (e.g., hurricane)– State of the art model in development and use by

academia, private industry, USACE, FEMA, Navy– Uses large scale unstructured triangular grids

with efficient localized resolution – Can combine surge, tides, rivers and wave input– Uses latest modeling physics– Surge model upgrades coordinated with NWS

(e.g., Sandy Supplemental) to augment probabilistic approach with faster, simpler SLOSH model

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• Computes ET surge and tides for forecasting and coupling to NWS’ WAVEWATCHIII® wave model

• Coastal resolution averages 3 km• Hourly output of 6 hr nowcast + 180

hr forecast 4X per day• East Coast operational in 2012• Pacific model in development,

operational in FY14 Q3

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/estofs/estofs_surge_info.shtml

http://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/etsurge_ESTOFS/

Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (ESTOFS)

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-123 -122.5 -122 -121.537

37.5

38

38.5

Longitude

Latit

ude

Total WL RMSE (m)

9415144

9437540

9440569

9440910

9442396

9444090 9444900

9446484

9447130

9449424

9449880

9450460

9452210

9452400

9452634

9454050

9454240

9455090

9455500

9455760

9455920

9459881

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

-125 -124 -123 -122 -121

46

47

48

49

50

Longitude

Latit

ude

Total WL RMSE (m)

9415144

9437540

9440569

9440910

944239694440909444900

9446484

9447130

9449424

9449880

9450460

9452210

9452400

9452634

9454050

9454240

9455090

9455500

9455760

9455920

9459881

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

-138 -136 -134 -132 -130

52

54

56

58

60

Longitude

Latit

ude

Total WL RMSE (m)

9415144

9437540

94405699440910

944239694440909444900

94464849447130

94494249449880

9450460

9452210

9452400

9452634

9454050

9454240

9455090

9455500

9455760

9455920

9459881

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

-180 -160 -140 -120

10

20

30

40

50

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70

Longitude

Latit

ude

Total WL RMSE (m)

0

0.1

0.2

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0.4

-154 -152 -150 -148 -14654

56

58

60

62

Longitude

Latit

ude

Total WL RMSE (m)

9415144

9437540

94405699440910

944239694440909444900

94464849447130

94494249449880

9450460

9452210

9452400

9452634

9454050

9454240

9455090

9455500

9455760

9455920

9459881

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Water Level Skill Assessment

• 15-month period (11/16/2004 - 2/28/2006) covers two winter seasons

• GFS wind and pressure every 6 hrs



0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

TotalTidalSurge

CO-OPS Station Number

Hawaii

So Cali

Port C

hicag

o

Cook I

nlet

Puget Sd/SE AK

Testing showed that tidal accuracy did not improve with increased resolution, adjusted bottom friction, or increased tidal potential term.


-180 -160 -140 -120

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Longitude

Latit

ude

Surge WL RMSE (m)

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

-155 -150 -145

54

56

58

60

62

64

Longitude

Latit

ude

Surge WL RMSE (m)

9440569

94557609455920

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

-125 -124 -123 -12246

46.5

47

47.5

48

48.5

49

LongitudeLa

titud

e

Surge WL RMSE (m)

9440569

9455760

9455920

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4


Skill in surge WL close to goal of 0.20 m RMSE


Sandy Supplemental: ADCIRC Ensemble Tropical Surge Prediction• Development of operational ensemble of

ADCIRC surge+tide predictions of coastal inundation for TC and ET storms

• Predict tropical and extratropical inundation– TC ensemble members based on track perturbation– Potential ET ensemble members: GEFS, NDFD,

NAM, ECMWF, SREF

• Experimental in FY15, operational in FY16

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Potential coverage

Office of Coast Survey 22


1.Graphics on CO-OPS Web Site: 1.Time Series Plots (24 hour nowcast and 48 forecast) of water levels,

currents, temperature, salinity, and surface winds at selected locations (all PORTS and NWLON stations and more)

2.Contour and vector map plots and animation of water levels, currents, temperature, salinity, and surface winds

2.Model data set on OPeNDAP and NOAA’s WOC:

station/point NetCDF files (6-minute output): time series model nowcast and forecast at selected stations for water levels, currents, temperature, salinity, surface winds

Field/gridded model output NetCDF file (hourly output) 2-D water levels and surface winds, 3-D currents, temperature and salinity on every model grid.

Deliverable Modeling Products:


Objectives of NOS Operational Forecast Systems• Support of safe & efficient navigation

• Water levels for under-keel clearance• Currents for right-of-way, maneuverability

• Emergency response • Oil spills (OR&R)• Search & Rescue• Homeland Security

• For environmentally sound management of the coastal zone

• Ecological: hypoxia, HABs, pathogens, …• Marine geospatial applications

Salinity

SST Sea Nettles

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Customer Feedback on OFS

• MD Pilots (J. Smith)– “Pilots are delighted with the modeling, forecasting, and real time

PORTS data… We do our voyage planning with a heavy reliance on CBOFS forecasting and modeling…”

• DE Bay/River Pilots (S. Roberts)– “(DBOFS) allows us to identify tidal and wind conditions that may

prevent the safe passage of deep loaded tankers before they are scheduled to get underway. It also allows our customers to identify conditions which may necessitate adjusting the draft of a ship to allow for less than adequate depths in advance saving them costs due to delays and aborted passages.”

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Customer Feedback on OFS

• USCG (A. Allen)– “… using NGOFS… to assist in the search for CG personnel lost

in the crash of CG6535 in Mobile Bay… planning underwater searches based on the bottom currents from NGOFS”

• NWS (B. Schneider, WFO Portland)– “Receiving accurate model output for the Columbia River Bar

and Tillamook River Bar is central to WFO Portland’s effort to improving forecasts for these areas”

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Experimental High Res Surge Ensemble• ADCIRC Surge Guidance System

– Automated system for ADCIRC

• NOAA tested in Gulf of Mexico in 2012 on experimental HFIP computer “tjet”– 5 to 10 member ensemble

• Expanded coverage in 2013 to prepare for transition to operations– Tested during Karen– Output delivered via CSDL

OPeNDAP and VizTool

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Model grid

Model topobathy in Chesapeake

http://coastalmodeldev.data.noaa.gov/thredds/catalog.html

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