Office Market Shop

2
 WASHINGTON, DC OFFICE Economy It is clear that after a lackluster year in 2014, the Washington, DC Metropolitan Region’s economy has returned to above average conditions. The DC Metro continues to register one of the lowest employment rates among major metros in the United States—4.6%. Since May of 2014, the region has added 59,000 non- farm payroll jobs, 15,400 of them in the oce-using sectors of Professional and Business Services, Information, Financial Activities, and Federal Government. This is quite impressive considering about 35,000 net new jobs are added in a typical year and in 2014, the region lost approximately 12,000 oce-using jobs. In the District of Columbia (DC), the unemployment rate dropped 40 basis points from 7.7% in January 2015 to 7.3% in May of this year while nonfarm job growth is up over 13,000 jobs compared to a year ago. The Federal Government, which accounts for over 25% of nonfarm payrolls in DC, has continued to stabilize after four years of contraction, adding 1,400 jobs from May 2014 to May 2015 while Professional and Business Services employment is up nearly 5,000 jobs. Market Overview After a modest start to the year, the District of Columbia experienced strong positive demand in the second quarter of 2015, driven by the two core downtown submarkets: the Central Business District (CBD ) and East End. In fact, these two submarkets captured 69% of the demand across Washington DC during the quarter. The CBD boasted the strongest demand with 125,400 sf of positive absorption, while the East End registered 64,30 0 sf. The divergence of the East End and CBD that began in the rst quarter of the year seemed to take a halt during the second quarter. The majority of deals signed—both new deals and relocations—were for space in the same submarkets where tenants’ leases were previously. After three straight quarters of rising vacancy, the District of Columbia’s vacancy rate ticked downward 30 basis points to 11.0%. Vacancy in the CBD dropped below 10% for the rst time since the end of 2008. Leasing activity in the second quarter was dominated by larger deals in new construction or renovated buildings. Kirkland & Ellis signed a prelease for 186,000 sf at 1301 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW in the East End. As is the case with several other large law rms, Kirkland & Ellis will downsize by more than 60,000 sf upon delivery of the Pennsylvania Avenue building in 2018. Another large lease in new construction was that signed by Bracewell Giuliani at 2001 M Street, NW – currently undergoing a complete renovation. Following on the heels of its successful renovation of 799 9th Street which delivered in 2014 leased to two major law rms, Brookeld’s 2001 M Street, NW, has seen the most interest among all other major renovations throughout the District of Columbia. It is expected to deliver in 2016. Oce buildings that are currently under construction are over 60% leased in the District of Columbia. GSA activity was relatively light throughout the rst half of the year, but is expected to pick up in the near future. A staggering 13 million square feet of federal leases are set to expire through 2019 in the District of Columbia and owners that can deliver large blocks of space that t federal lease requirements are set to benet. This activity could only have modest impacts on the ov erall vacancy rate in the District as most large prospectus level leases in the queue at this time are targeting space eciencies in the 10 – 20% range with one for the Department of Education targeting a 42% space reduction. Overall Vacancy Net Absorption/ Asking Rent 4Q TRAILING AVERAGE Market Indicators Q2 14 Q2 15 12-Month Forecast Overall Vacancy 11.2% 11.0% Net Absorption (321K) 275K Under Construction 1.5M 2.2M  Average Asking Rent $50.35 $50.12 Economic Indicators Q2 14 Q2 15 12-Month Forecast DC Metro Employment 3.11M 3.17M DC Metro Unemployment 5.0% 4.6% U.S. Unemployment 6.1% 5.3% $47 $48 $49 $50 $51 -1 0 1 2 3 4 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Net Absorption, MSF As ki ng Rent, $ PSF 9% 10% 11% 12% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Historical Average = 10.7% WASHINGTON, DC Oce Market Snapshot Second Quarter  2015

description

a

Transcript of Office Market Shop

  • WASHINGTON, DC OFFICE EconomyIt is clear that after a lackluster year in 2014, the Washington, DC Metropolitan Regions economy has returned to above average conditions. The DC Metro continues to register one of the lowest employment rates among major metros in the United States4.6%. Since May of 2014, the region has added 59,000 non-farm payroll jobs, 15,400 of them in the office-using sectors of Professional and Business Services, Information, Financial Activities, and Federal Government. This is quite impressive considering about 35,000 net new jobs are added in a typical year and in 2014, the region lost approximately 12,000 office-using jobs. In the District of Columbia (DC), the unemployment rate dropped 40 basis points from 7.7% in January 2015 to 7.3% in May of this year while nonfarm job growth is up over 13,000 jobs compared to a year ago. The Federal Government, which accounts for over 25% of nonfarm payrolls in DC, has continued to stabilize after four years of contraction, adding 1,400 jobs from May 2014 to May 2015 while Professional and Business Services employment is up nearly 5,000 jobs.

    Market OverviewAfter a modest start to the year, the District of Columbia experienced strong positive demand in the second quarter of 2015, driven by the two core downtown submarkets: the Central Business District (CBD) and East End. In fact, these two submarkets captured 69% of the demand across Washington DC during the quarter. The CBD boasted the strongest demand with 125,400 sf of positive absorption, while the East End registered 64,300 sf. The divergence of the East End and CBD that began in the first quarter of the year seemed to take a halt during the second quarter. The majority of deals signedboth new deals and relocationswere for space in the same submarkets where tenants leases were previously.

    After three straight quarters of rising vacancy, the District of Columbias vacancy rate ticked downward 30 basis points to 11.0%. Vacancy in the CBD dropped below 10% for the first time since the end of 2008. Leasing activity in the second quarter was dominated by larger deals in new construction or renovated buildings. Kirkland & Ellis signed a prelease for 186,000 sf at 1301 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW in the East End. As is the case with several other large law firms, Kirkland & Ellis will downsize by more than 60,000 sf upon delivery of the Pennsylvania Avenue building in 2018. Another large lease in new construction was that signed by Bracewell Giuliani at 2001 M Street, NW currently undergoing a complete renovation. Following on the heels of its successful renovation of 799 9th Street which delivered in 2014 leased to two major law firms, Brookfields 2001 M Street, NW, has seen the most interest among all other major renovations throughout the District of Columbia. It is expected to deliver in 2016. Office buildings that are currently under construction are over 60% leased in the District of Columbia.

    GSA activity was relatively light throughout the first half of the year, but is expected to pick up in the near future. A staggering 13 million square feet of federal leases are set to expire through 2019 in the District of Columbia and owners that can deliver large blocks of space that fit federal lease requirements are set to benefit. This activity could only have modest impacts on the overall vacancy rate in the District as most large prospectus level leases in the queue at this time are targeting space efficiencies in the 10 20% range with one for the Department of Education targeting a 42% space reduction.

    Overall Vacancy

    Net Absorption/Asking Rent 4Q TRAILING AVERAGE

    Market IndicatorsQ2 14 Q2 15 12-Month Forecast

    Overall Vacancy 11.2% 11.0%

    Net Absorption (321K) 275K

    Under Construction 1.5M 2.2M

    Average Asking Rent $50.35 $50.12

    Economic IndicatorsQ2 14 Q2 15 12-Month Forecast

    DC Metro Employment 3.11M 3.17M

    DC Metro Unemployment 5.0% 4.6%

    U.S. Unemployment 6.1% 5.3%

    $47

    $48

    $49

    $50

    $51

    -1

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

    Net Absorption, MSF Asking Rent, $ PSF

    9%

    10%

    11%

    12%

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

    Historical Average = 10.7%

    WASHINGTON, DC

    Office Market SnapshotSecond Quarter 2015

  • www.dtz.com | 2

    WASHINGTON, DC

    Office Market SnapshotSecond Quarter 2015

    TOTAL BLDG INVENTORY

    SUBLET VACANT

    TOTAL VACANT

    VACANCY RATE

    AVAILABILITY RATE

    CURRENT ABSORPTION

    YTD ABSORP-

    TIONUNDER CON-STRUCTION

    AVERAGE ASKING RENT

    SUBMARKETCBD 250 38,500,760 266,496 3,793,243 9.9% 14.2% 125,445 344,970 541,023 $50.67

    East End 203 39,812,897 333,515 4,561,593 11.5% 20.6% 64,365 (231,657) 932,371 $54.36

    West End/Georgetown 58 5,921,127 25,905 706,882 11.9% 15.7% 3,214 28,680 0 $47.82

    Capitol Hill 44 4,642,579 10,866 434,936 9.4% 16.2% 43,527 68,110 0 $56.88

    NoMa 39 10,289,374 30,999 1,427,571 13.9% 15.6% 41,964 (1,215) 200,000 $48.20

    Southwest 34 13,382,559 36,638 1,310,956 9.8% 16.3% (9,499) 45,002 553,879 $44.84

    Capitol Riverfront/Southeast 11 3,736,758 10,800 405,213 10.8% 16.0% 44,514 57,396 0 $41.94

    Uptown 99 6,564,289 62,886 922,343 14.1% 19.0% (38,397) (61,157) 0 $40.78

    WASHINGTON, DC MARKET TOTALS

    TOTAL 738 122,850,343 778,105 13,562,737 11.0% 17.0% 275,133 250,129 2,227,273 $50.12

    Key Sales Transactions 2Q 2015

    Key Lease Transactions 2Q 2015PROPERTY SF TENANT TRANSACTION TYPE SUBMARKET

    1301 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW 186,000 Kirkland & Ellis Prelease East End

    1111 19th Street, NW 70,482 Undisclosed Tenant New CBD

    1299 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW 56,500 APCO New East End

    2001 M Street, NW 55,000 Bracewell Giuliani New CBD

    2450 N Street, NW 43,100 Cogent Communications New West End

    1001 G Street, NW 42,844 Quadrangle Development Corp. Renewal East End

    955 L'Enfant Plaza, SW 34,000 Veracity Engineering New Southwest

    900 G Street, NW 33,216 American Legacy Foundation New East End

    preliminary

    PROPERTY SF SELLER/BUYER PRICE SUBMARKET

    1101 K Street, NW 291,500 Rockefeller JV Mitsubishi / UBS Realty $260,000,000 East End

    1325 and 1341 G Street, NW 431,600 TIER REIT / Westbrook Partners $200,000,000 East End

    1750 K Street, NW 165,800 Sumitomo Corporation / Mirae Asset Global Management $115,000,000 CBD

    645 H Street, NE 84,700 Jair Lynch / Intercontinental Real Estate $51,400,000 Capitol Hill

    1140 19th Street, NW 71,100 AREP / Rockrose $40,500,000 CBD

    About DTZDTZ is a global leader in commercial real estate services providing occupiers, tenants and investors around the world with a full spectrum of property solutions. The companys core capabilities include agency leasing, tenant representation, corporate and global occupier services, property management, facilities management, facility services, capital markets, investment and asset management, valuation, research, consulting, and project and development management. DTZ provides property management for 1.9 billion square feet, or 171 million square meters, and facilities management for 1.3 billion square feet, or 124 million square meters. The company completed $63 billion in transaction volume globally in 2014 on behalf of institutional, corporate, government and private clients. Headquartered in Chicago, DTZ has more than 28,000 employees who operate across more than 260 offices in 50 countries and represent the companys culture of excellence, client advocacy, integrity and collaboration.

    DTZ announced an agreement to merge with Cushman & Wakefield in a May 11 press release. The new company, which will operate under the Cushman & Wakefield brand, will have revenues over $5.5 billion, over 43,000 employees and will manage more than 4 billion square feet globally on behalf of institutional, corporate and private clients. The agreement is subject to customary closing conditions and is expected to close before the end of 2015. For further information, visit: www.dtz.com or follow us on Twitter @DTZ.

    Joseph Wood Research Analyst

    2101 L Street, NW Suite 700 Washington, DC 20037 Tel: +1 202 266 1317 Fax: +1 202 223 2989 Email: [email protected]

    The information contained within this report is gathered from multiple sources considered to be reliable. The information may contain errors or omissions and is presented without any warranty or representations as to its accuracy.

    Copyright 2015 DTZ. All rights reserved.