OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research 1 WG/TCR Comparison of the 2008 and 2010...
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Transcript of OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research 1 WG/TCR Comparison of the 2008 and 2010...
OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research
1 WG/TCR
Comparison of the
2008 and 2010
Snapshots of
Tropical Cyclone
R&DDr. Frank Marks (NOAA) and Dr. Ron Ferek
(Navy)Co-Chairs, Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research
(WG/TCR)
OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research
2 WG/TCR
History of WG/TCR• February 2005: Federal Coordinator
formed Joint Action Group for Tropical Cyclone Research (JAG/TCR)
• February 2007: JAG/TCR work culminated with publication of Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead
• Two Tables in the Plan:
Table 4-1: Operational Priorities of the TC Forecasting & Warning Centers
Table 5-1: Research Needs in Atmospheric and Ocean Science
• October 2008: First meeting of the WG/TCR
OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research
3 WG/TCR
WG/TCR Objectives / Tasks
• Keep Tables 4-1 and 5-1 updated Table 4-1: Ops priorities (became Table 1)
Table 5-1: Research needs (became Table 2)
• Map agency meteorological research efforts against TC research needs and operational priorities
• Analyze / compare results
• Update information at IHC
Research Needs
Table 2
Operational Priorities
• Table 1 Ops priorities
extracted from FY09 JHT Announcement of Federal Funding Opportunity (AFFO)
FromTable
2
Operational Priorities
• Table 1 Ops priorities
extracted from FY09 JHT Announcement of Federal Funding Opportunity (AFFO)
Ops priorities from FY11 JHT AFFO
OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research
7 WG/TCR
A1
A1
b
A1
d
A1
f
A1
h
A2
a
A2
c
A3
A3
b
A3
d
A4
a
A4
c
A5
a
A6
B2
B3
a
B3
c
B3
e
B5
B7
C1
C1
b
C2
05
101520253035404550
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 1405
101520253035404550
Intensity Change
Storm Surge
Genesis
Size/Structure
Guidance Decision Tools
Fcstr Efficiency
Track Fcst
Wind Analysis
Model Res vs Ensem
bles
QPFRadar/Sat. Data
Seasonal Progs
SST Gradients
Improved Obs
Ma
n-y
ea
rs
Intensity / Structure
Track Genesis QPF
Surge
[Seasonal]
Model Development
Obs
Combined Agency Data Graphedto Detailed Research Categories
Combined Agency Data Graphedto Ops Priorities
Research Compilation Process• Tabulated each agency’s research contribution; man-years and $
~ 240 projects (NOAA, NASA, Navy, NSF, USACE, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation, and Enforcement)
• Mapped man-years for each R&D activity to the Detailed Research Categories using Table 2 (see 1st graph)
• Mapped man-years to ops priorities using column in Table 1 (see 2nd graph)
OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research
8 WG/TCR
Comparison of 2008 Snapshotwith
2010 Snapshot
OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research
9 WG/TCR
Man-years by Research Category
2008 Snapshot(Total Man-years: 211)
2010 Snapshot(Total Man-years: 296)
OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research
10 WG/TCR
Man-years by Agency
2008 Snapshot(Total Man-years: 211)
2010 Snapshot(Total Man-years: 296)
OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research
11 WG/TCR
2008 SnapshotTotal: $50,155K
2010 SnapshotTotal: $76,658K
Field Experiments: PREDICT, GRIP, IFEX, ITOP & Research Computer System (HFIP)
NOAA Total$23,936
HFIP
OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research
12 WG/TCR
A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 B6 B7 B8 C1 C2 C30
10
20
30
40
50
60
A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 B6 B7 B8 C1 C2 C30
10
20
30
40
50
60
Analysis of Tropical Cyclone R&D
2008-2010 Comparison
Inte
ns
ity
/ S
tru
ctu
re
Tra
ck
Gen
es
is
QP
F
Su
rge
Sea
so
nal
Model Development Observations
2008 SnapshotTotal: 211 Man-years
Inte
ns
ity
/ S
tru
ctu
re
Tra
ck
Gen
es
is
QP
F
Su
rge
Sea
so
nal
ObservationsModel Development
HFIP
2010 SnapshotTotal: 296 Man-years
(HFIP Contribution: 75 man-years)
Research Needs Mapped onto Ops Priorities
• On next two slides:
2008 and 2010 comparisons of the research needs mapped onto ops priorities
Used ops priorities published in the FY09 JHT AFFO
OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research
14 WG/TCR
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 140
10
20
30
40
50
60
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 140
10
20
30
40
50
60
Research Needs Mapped onto Ops Priorities
2008 Snapshot(FY09 AFFO)
NHC / CPHC
Total: 211 Man-years
2010 Snapshot(FY09 AFFO)
Total: 296 Man-years
Intensity Change
Storm Surge
Genesis
Size/Structure
Guidance Decision Tools
Fcstr Efficiency
Track Fcst
Wind Analysis
Model Res vs Ensem
bles
QPFRadar/Sat. Data
Seasonal Progs
SST Gradients
Improved Obs
Intensity Change
Storm Surge
Genesis
Size/Structure
Guidance Decision Tools
Fcstr Efficiency
Track Fcst
Wind Analysis
Model Res vs Ensem
bles
QPFRadar/Sat. Data
Seasonal Progs
SST Gradients
Improved Obs
OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research
15 WG/TCR
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 140
10
20
30
40
50
60
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 140
10
20
30
40
50
60
Research Needs Mapped onto Ops Priorities
JTWC
Intensity Change
Storm Surge
Genesis
Size/Structure
Fcstr Efficiency
Track Fcst
Wind Analysis
Model Res vs Ensem
bles
QPFRadar/Sat. Data
Seasonal Progs
SST Gradients
Improved Obs
Guidance Decision Tools
2008 Snapshot(FY09 AFFO)
Total: 211 Man-years
2010 Snapshot(FY09 AFFO)
Total: 296 Man-years
Intensity Change
Storm Surge
Genesis
Size/Structure
Fcstr Efficiency
Track Fcst
Wind Analysis
Model Res vs Ensem
bles
QPFRadar/Sat. Data
Seasonal Progs
SST Gradients
Improved Obs
Guidance Decision Tools
OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research
16 WG/TCR
Analysis of Tropical Cyclone R&D
Closing Comments
• Two snapshots that captured R&D activities
Represents the spectrum of R&D across the community
Research influenced by ops priorities; provides mechanism for essential feedback
• With HFIP and four major field experiments, R&D increased markedly in 2010 snapshot compared to 2008 snapshot
Deltas between 2008 and 2010 not only reflect HFIP, but changing emphasis of field experiments
• Intensity change is still #1 operational priority
Research (basic and applied) is still required, as this is a very difficult and complex problem
OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research
17 WG/TCR
• Users would like research community to take more of an interest in guidance decision tools
• We have a process to: Keep the operational priorities updated Assess and evaluate how research is contributing to those
priorities Allow research managers to make informed decisions for future
investments Facilitate interagency collaboration and coordination
• Starting to see interesting results from R&D and will see examples throughout the conference
• Raises awareness of the importance of R2O • Will complete next snapshot in 2012 using new operational
priorities (FY11 JHT AFFO)
Analysis of Tropical Cyclone R&D
OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research
18 WG/TCR
QUESTIONS?
BACKUPS
OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research
20 WG/TCR
Dr. Frank MarksOAR/AOML/HRD (NOAA/DOC)
Dr. Ronald FerekONR (Navy/DOD)
Dr. Bradley SmullPhysical & Dynamic Met. (NSF)
Dr. Scott BraunGSFC (NASA)
Dr. James McFaddenOMAO/AOC (NOAA/DOC)
Dr. Robert RogersOAR/AOML/HRD (NOAA/DOC)
Dr. Mark DeMariaNESDIS (NOAA/DOC)
Lt Col Jonathan Talbot53rd WRS (AF/DOD)
Mr. James FranklinNWS/NHC (NOAA/DOC)
Mr. William (Kim) CurryHQ Navy (Navy/DOD)
Mr. Bob FalveyDirector, JTWC (AF/DOD)
Ms. Robbie HoodOAR (NOAA/DOC)
Dr. Bruce EbersoleU.S. Army COE (Army/DOD)
Dr. Daniel MelendezNWS/OST (NOAA/DOC)
Mr. Jeffrey HawkinsNRL (Navy/DOD)
Dr. Alexis Lugo-FernandezBOEMRE (DOI)
Dr. James GoerssNRL (Navy/DOD)
Lt Col Chris CantrellHQ AF (AF/DOD)
Dr. Gerald HeymsfieldGSFC (NASA)
Ms. Justyna NicinskaOAR (NOAA/DOC)
Mr. Mark WelshingerOFCM
WG/TCR
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 150
10
20
30
40
50
60
Man
-yea
rsResearch Needs Mapped onto Ops Priorities
2010 Snapshot (FY11 AFFO)NHC / CPHC
Total: 296 Man-years
Intensity
Change
Storm Surge
Genesis
Size/Structure
Guidance
Decision Tools
Fcstr Efficiency
Track Fcst
Wind Analysis
Model ensem
bles
comparable to m
ulti-
model consensus
QPFRadar/Sat. Data
Seasonal Progs
SST Gradients
Improved Obs
Extended Climatology-
Persistence Skill
Baseline
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 150
10
20
30
40
50
60
Man
-yea
rsResearch Needs Mapped onto Ops Priorities
2010 Snapshot (FY11 AFFO)JTWC
Total: 296 Man-years
Intensity
Change
Storm Surge
Genesis
Size/Structure
Guidance
Decision Tools
Fcstr Efficiency
Track Fcst
Wind Analysis
Model ensem
bles
comparable to m
ulti-
model consensus
QPFRadar/Sat. Data
Seasonal Progs
SST Gradients
Improved Obs
Extended Climatology-
Persistence Skill
Baseline
OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research
23 WG/TCR
NSF FY08 AND FY09
NOAA FY09
NAVY FY08
NASA FY08 AND FY09
OTHER FY09
2008 SNAPSHOT – FYs INCLUDED (SEE NEXT SLIDE)
2010 SNAPSHOT - # OF PROJECTS (BACKGROUND FOR SLIDE #5)
NSF 39
NOAA 116
NAVY 50
NASA 31
OTHER 3
OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research
24 WG/TCR
A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 B6 B7 B8 C1 C2 C3
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Change from 2008 to 2010 in combined man-years by research category
2008-10 change
Man
-yea
rs
Inte
nsi
ty /
S
tru
ctu
re
Tra
ck
Gen
esis
QP
F
Su
rge
Sea
son
al
Model Development
Observations
HFIP