OECD ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT OCDE ORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE...

OECDORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT

OCDEORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES

Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000

Freight transport trends

&GHGemissions

Overview and key issuesPhilippe Crist, OECD Environment Directorate




CO2 Emissions from Freight: Context

Transport: ~26% of OECD CO2 emissions

Freight: ~30-40% of transport CO2 emissions




CO2 from FreightDrivers

Activity/Volume

Structure/Mode Share

Intensity/Energy Efficiency

Fuel




Activity

Micro levelDerived Demand: Siting, transport links (rationalisation of supply base: increase in transportdistances of 1.5-2% in EU)

Macro LevelGDP, freight transport (3.4%/yr, 5.4%/yr road), geography & economy




0

5

10

15

20

5000 10000 15000 20000 25000

GDP / Capita (90 US$ PPP)

Tonne-k

m /

Capit

a

US

UK

Netherlands

Japan

w. Germany

Australia

Sweden

Total Freight Volume and GDP:Correlation and variability

Sou

rce:

IEA




Mode Share

RoadRailShippingAir




Road Freight Transport44% of OECD t/km (higher value/shorter distances)

Gaining share everywhere




0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

mill

ion t

onne/k

ilom

etr

es

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Road Freight Growthtonne/km

United States

EU-15

Japan

Sou

rce:

OEC

D, EEA

, U

SD

OT




Road Freight Transport

Benefiting from shifts in production patterns and product cycles

Congestion

Role of transport market liberalisation




Rail Freight Transport

36% of OECD t/km (lower value/longer distances)

Absolute gains, relative losses




0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

mill

ion t

onne/k

ilom

etr

es

United States

EU-15

Japan

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Rail Freight Growthtonne/km

Sou

rce:

OEC

D, EEA

, U

SD

OT




Rail Freight Transport

Increase in intermodal systems

Market deregulation

Infrastructure issues




Inland (and Coastal) Shipping

Inland shipping ~20% OECD tn/km (low value/long distances)

Globalisation benefits shipping

Absolute gains, relative losses




0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

mill

ion t

onne/k

ilom

etr

es

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

United States

EU-15

Japan

Shipping Freight Growthtonne/km

Sou

rce:

OEC

D, EEA

, U

SD

OT




Airborne Freight Transport

Low absolute levels, highest growth (medium to high value goods, long distances)

Globalisation benefits air

Rel. low costs (for high value goods), short product and production cycles drivers




Energy Intensity

Function of mode share, technical efficiency, and load factors




0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

GH

G E

mis

sion

s in

CO

2 e

qu

ivale

nt

g/t

km

Indirect emissions

Direct emissions

Light van

gasoline

Light van

diesel

HGV 16 tonne Euro2

HGV 28 tonne Euro2

HGV 40 tonne Euro2

Rail combined

container

Rail combined

piggy

Rail wagon

UCPTE

Inland Shipping

Maritime Shipping

Air

Lifecycle GHG EmissionsEuropean Freight Transport Modes

Sou

rce:

INFR

AS

, Z

uri

ch




Energy Intensity

Technical efficiency improvements: ambiguous-- Lorry 20-30% improvements not translated into energy intensity improvements per t/km

Improvements in other areas: Driver training, logistics chain management, vehicle utilisation, etc.




54% of trips were loaded to between 1.5m and 1.7m

24% of trips to more than 1.7m

17% to between 1.5m and 0.8m

and 5% under 0.8m

2.4m

Road Freight LoadingUK Survey Results

Tonne-out vs. Square out vs. Cube-out

Sou

rce:

A. M

cKin

non

, H

eri

ot-

Watt

Un

iv.




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

ml f

uel t

o m

ove

1 ou

tbou

nd in

dust

ry p

alle

t 1 k

m

refrigerationconsumption

motiveconsumption

Variability in Fleet Energy Intensity1998 UK Lorry Fleet Survey

Sou

rce:

A. M

cKin

non

, H

eri

ot-

Watt

Un

iv.




Potential Fuel Savings from Best Practice1998 UK Lorry Fleet Survey

if fleets below meanperformance achievemean performance

if fleets below meanof top 1/3, achievemean performance

of top 1/3

motive fuel savings litres 4,670,336 14,726,121

reduction on currentlevel of fuel use % 9 29

reduction in CO2

emissions tonnes 12,423 39,171

cost saving pervehicle £ 2,255 7,109

Source: A. McKinnon, Heriot-Watt Univ.




Fuels

Petroleum-based fuels dominate

Little use of alternative fuels, stock turn-over, questions re. Fuel cells

Ambiguity of fuel prices for firm-level strategic decision-making




• Logistics costs = 7.5% of sales revenue

• Road transport costs = 30% of logistics costs

• Fuel = 25-30% of road transport costs

• Fuel = 0.6 - 0.7 % of sales revenue

Road Fuel Costs in PerspectiveEU data

Source: A. McKinnon, Heriot-Watt Univ.




Policy Issues

Different discourses/different agendas

Unit gains vs. Volume effects

Action now, impacts later

Technology vs. Practices

Instruments: Relevant? Fuel prices? Congestion?

De-coupling Economic Activity and Freight transport volume




Voluntary reduction of CO2 emissions: - 45% from 1993 to 2005

Sou

rce:

Arr

etz

, O

tto-V

ers

an

d

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