OECD FAO Agricultural Outlook 2013 2022 - aii.caas.net.cnaii.caas.net.cn/AgriOutlook/pdf/1-1.Merritt...
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OECD‐FAO Agricultural Outlook 2013‐2022 2013WA 2013WA 2013WA 3WA 2013WAOC 2013WAOC 2013WAOC 3WAOC 2013WAOC 2013WAOC 2013WAOC 3WAOC 2013WAOC 2013WAOC 2013WAOC 3WAOC 2013WA 2013WA 2013WA 013WA 2013WAOC 2013WAOC 2013WAOC 013WAOC 2013WAOC 2013WAOC 2013WAOC 013WAOC 2013WAOC 2013WAOC 2013WAOC 013WAOC
Transcript of OECD FAO Agricultural Outlook 2013 2022 - aii.caas.net.cnaii.caas.net.cn/AgriOutlook/pdf/1-1.Merritt...
OECD‐FAOAgricultural Outlook 2013‐2022
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Background to the Outlook
• Issues– High food commodity prices – Impact of income growth on food consumption?
– Opportunities for developing countries
• Focus :Feeding China: prospects and challenges for the next decade.
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FAO’s Food Price Index: “Real” prices remain well above trend
y = 238.36e‐0.019x
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Underpinned by high real energy prices …will the trend rise continue?
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Index of consumption based on constant 2004‐06
Income growth drives higher per capita consumption in developing countries
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Income growth higher consumption, but why is the impact low in many countries?
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OECD BRICS LDC Rest of World
Consumption change 2003‐12 Income change 2003‐12Consumption change 2013‐22 Income change 2013‐22
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Note: Agriculture and fish products included in the Outlook
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Key global messages• Growth is now more market‐driven
– Policies now less distortive
• Prices to remain firm over the next decade– underpinned by growth/higher input costs
• Consumption is rising even with high prices. – Response to income growth is very low in many countries
• Production growth is slowing – High prices offer opportunity, but higher costs, rising
constraints– Productivity growth is slowing
• Emerging issues– Enabling higher response by developing countries, and
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Focus on China: Prospects and Challenges
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Total – 3.8%/yearCrops – 2.9%/yearLivestock – 5.6%/year
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• How sustainable is economic growth?• Rising constraints:
– Land and land quality, water, labor are in tight supply– Real exchange rates are rising– Economic growth risks?
• How much will demand grow? – Slowing population growth, but rapid urbanization– High income growth is likely to continue– Consumption base –nearing saturation?
• Will consumption mix change?
• How much will China trade?
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But what prospects for the next decade?
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China’s consumption growth will exceed production in the next decade
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Self‐sufficiency in “grains”, but growth of oilseed imports continues strong
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Exports of fish continue strong, but imports of dairy products continue high
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CaloriesProtein
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Rapid convergence of food consumption in China toward OECD levels
Source: FAOSTAT/Outlook
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• China’s agricultural growth has been strong, but now appears to be slowing:– Production constraints will limit future growth– Trade balance will widening slowly– Focus will remain on food security crops– Will meet its production targets
• Food demand growth will slow, but the mix is changing, with higher demand for feed grain, vegetable oil and livestock products
• Whether, how much China opens will keep markets on edge in the next decade.
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Prospects and Challenges
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