October 7, 2016

Week in review

Canada – Employment surged in September (+67K)

according to the Labour Force Survey, significantly above consensus calling for a 8K rise. However, the jobless rate remained unchanged at 7.0% with the participation rate rising to 65.7% from 65.5%. Self-employment (+50K) and private (+18K) employment rose while government (-1K) remained essentially unchanged. Full-time employment rose 23K and part-time jobs jumped 44K. The goods sector (+12K) was up with gains in manufacturing, construction and resources and utilities while agriculture was down. Services sector employment was also up (+56K) with significant gains in public administration, education, professional services and business services while healthcare, trade and other services were down. On a regional basis, employment jumped in Quebec (+38K) and Alberta (+13K) and posted a decent gain in Ontario. While most of the jobs were part-time and in the self-employed category, it’s worth noting the 23K rise in full-time positions which is impressive considering that comes after a 52K surge the prior month. On a regional basis, the rise of employment in Central Canada and the apparent stabilization in Alberta employment are encouraging.

The merchandise trade deficit narrowed to C$1.9 bn in August, the best in seven months, as nominal exports rose 0.6% while imports remained unchanged. The energy trade surplus rose to C$3.7 bn thanks to a jump in export volumes. However, the non-energy trade deficit deteriorated to C$5.7 bn. In real terms, exports rose 0.5% in August, while imports were up 1.3%. Assuming no change in September, real merchandise exports would rise at an annualized pace of 11% in the third quarter while imports are on track to fall 3.1%. In other words, expect goods trade to be a significant contributor to Q3 GDP growth. The Autumn edition of the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey (conducted between August 18 and September 13) suggested the business outlook improved since the summer. True, firms reported no sales growth over the past 12 months and expected just a modest acceleration over the next year. But intentions to invest in machinery and equipment were the best in two years with the balance of opinion moving up to 18. Firms are more encouraged by the improving export outlook than domestic conditions. Capacity pressures remained roughly unchanged, with only 38% of respondents stating either some or significant difficulty in meeting an unexpected increase in demand. But the proportion of respondents facing labour shortages increased. As such, hiring intentions improved with the balance of opinion for future employment jumping to 31, the highest since 2014Q4.

Expectations of input price inflation remained low, while that of output price inflation fell to -10, with firms stating the impact of intense competition. That was also reflected in inflation expectations which edged down ─ just 1% of respondents expect the annual inflation rate over the next two years to be above 3%. About 80% of firms expect inflation to be below the

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

6.5

6.6

6.7

6.8

6.9

7.0

7.1

7.2

7.3

7.4

2013 2014 2015 2016

Unemployment Rate (Right)

Employment (Left)

%

m/m chg. thousands

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Statistics Canada)

Canada: Employment surged in SeptemberEmployment and jobless rate according to the Labour Force Survey

-9

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Canada: BoC surveys point to economic rebound Real GDP growth versus Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey

q/q % chg. saar

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada)

Balance of opinion on hiring and investment (R)

Real GDP (L)

Q3

What we’ll be watching (p. 3) Calendar of upcoming releases (p. 5) Annex – Economic tables (A1)

WEEKLY ECONOMIC WATCH

2

Bank of Canada’s 2% target. Firms reported some easing in credit conditions. In sharp contrast, the separately-released BoC Senior Loan Officer's survey for Q3 (conducted between the 5th and 9th of September) showed lending conditions tightening for non-price conditions (particularly for corporate borrowers in oil and gas sector), albeit to a lesser extent than the prior quarter. But the BoC said that access to capital markets increased in Q3 for all grades of borrowers.

United States – Non farm payrolls rose just 156K in

September, well below the 172K expected by consensus. Adding to the bad news were downward revisions to prior months that took out 7K from payrolls. In September, the private sector added 167K jobs with gains in services (+157K) and the goods sector (+10K). The increase in goods sector employment was due to construction and mining, which dwarfed losses in the manufacturing sector. The private services sector job gains were driven by education/health (+29K), leisure/hospitality (+15K), business services (+67K), and trade/transportation (+24K). Government cut 11K positions as declines at the state/municipal levels more than offset gains at the federal level. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% in the month but were up 2.6% on a year-on-year basis. The private sector employment diffusion index fell to 57.8, the lowest in four months. In contrast, the household survey (similar methodology to Canada’s LFS) showed 354K new jobs being created in September entirely driven by part-time employment. But the one tick increase in the participation rate to 62.9% (6-month high), caused the jobless rate to rise one tick to 5%. All told, the employment reports, viewed together, are neither too hot nor too cold. That gives room to the Fed to remain on the sidelines in November while signalling a hike at its December meeting (after the elections), i.e. a hawkish pause.

The ADP employment report showed a 154K increase in September. Large firms (500+ employees) created 64K jobs, small firms, i.e. those employing less than 50 employees, added 34K to payrolls, while medium-sized firms added 56K jobs. Initial jobless claims fell 5K to 249K in the week ending October 1st. The more reliable 4-week moving average edged down to 253.5K. Continuing claims for the prior week fell 6K to 2.058 million. The ISM manufacturing index returned to expansion (i.e. above 50) with a consensus-topping print of 51.5 in September. The major sub-indices, namely production, new orders and employment all rose, although employment remained in contraction mode (i.e. below 50). The non-manufacturing ISM index rose to 57.1 in September from 51.4 the prior month. Both new orders and employment sub-indices surged. The business activity sub-index rose to 60.3 from 51.8. The trade deficit widened to $40.7bn in August from the prior month’s revised deficit of $39.5 bn. The deterioration in the trade balance was due to imports (+1.2%) rising more than exports (+0.8%). In real terms, exports rose 1.8%, while imports edged up 0.8%. Like Canada, the U.S. is set to see a significant contribution to Q3 growth from trade. Construction spending fell 0.7% in August after a downwardly revised 0.3% decrease the prior month (was previously reported as flat). The decline was driven largely by the non-residential sector (-1.1%), although residential sector construction was also down a bit.

World – Japan’s Tankan survey suggests business

sentiment was stable among large manufacturers during the third quarter, the corresponding index remaining unchanged at 6. However, sentiment in the services sector worsened for the third consecutive quarter and the corresponding print of 18 is now the lowest since 2014. In the Eurozone, retail sales fell 0.1% in real terms in August, driven by declines in Germany and France.

62.0

62.4

62.8

63.2

63.6

64.0

64.4

64.8

65.2

65.6

66.0

66.4

66.8

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

2014q1 2014q2 2014q3 2014q4 2015q1 2015q2 2015q3 2015q4 2016q1 2016q2 2016q3

U.S.: Accelerated pace of job creation in Q3

Participation rate and private sector hourly earningsNon-farm payrolls, private sector

q/q chg. thousands %

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Datastream)

4-quarter average

FOMC hawks will like the uptick in the pace

of employment creation in Q3 …

… while doves will point to still-low wage inflation and the rising participation rate

as evidence the labourmarket can still improve

Hourlyearnings (R)

y/y % chg.

Participation rate (L)

WEEKLY ECONOMIC WATCH

What we’ll be watching

3

In Canada, a holiday-shortened week will feature September data on the housing market. After two consecutive declines, housing starts probably bounced back in September, if the strong residential building

permit applications are any guide. We’re expecting increases in British Columbia and Ontario ─ provinces which are outperforming the rest in terms of growth and employment ─ and particularly in the multi-family segment. Those increases could take national housing starts up to about 197K at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Resale home prices as measured by the Teranet/National Bank house price index will also be available for the month of September.

In the U.S., the highlight of the week will be retail sales for September. Sales at auto dealerships were reportedly good, while rising pump prices probably boosted gasoline station receipts in the month. All in all, retail

spending may have jumped about 0.4% in September, more than making up for the prior month’s decline. Fed Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to give a speech on Friday. The Fed meeting minutes will be released on Wednesday.

Previous NBF forecastsHousing starts (September, saar) 182K 197K

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

Jan 15 May 15 Sep 15 Jan 16 May 16 Sep 16

Canada: Rebound in residential construction in September?Housing starts

Thousands, saar

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via CMHC) NBF forecast

Previous NBF forecastsRetail sales (September m/m chg.) -0.3% 0.4%ex-autos Retail sales (September m/m chg.) -0.1% 0.3%

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Jan 15 May 15 Sep 15 Jan 16 May 16 Sep 16

U.S.: Improving consumption in SeptemberRetail sales

m/m % chg.

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Datastream) NBF forecast

WEEKLY ECONOMIC WATCH

What we’ll be watching

4

Elsewhere around the world, September data in China on trade, credit and inflation will be available. In the Eurozone, August data on industrial production and trade will also be released.

WEEKLY ECONOMIC WATCH

Consensus Cons.

Estimate EPS

6:00 US NFIB Small Business Optimism Sep 94.4 95.0 Alcoa Inc Bef-mkt Q3 2016 0.34

8:15 CA Housing Starts Sep 182.7k 191.3k 197.0k Fastenal Co 7:00 Q3 2016 0.45

7:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Oct-07 2.90% -- CSX Corp Aft-mkt Q3 2016 0.45

8:30 CA New Housing Price Index MoM Aug 0.40% -- Progressive Corp/The 0:00 Q3 2016 0.33

8:30 CA New Housing Price Index YoY Aug 2.80% -- Linear Technology Corp 0:00 Q1 2017 0.54

8:30 CA Teranet/National Bank HPI MoM Sep 1.50% -- Wynn Resorts Ltd 0:00 Q3 2016 0.74

8:30 CA Teranet/National Bank HPI YoY Sep 11.40% -- Delta Air Lines Inc 0:00 Q3 2016 1.67

8:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Oct-08 249k 254k

8:30 US Retail Sales Advance MoM Sep -0.30% 0.60% 0.40% PNC Financial Services Group Inc/The 6:30 Q3 2016 1.78

8:30 US Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Sep -0.10% 0.40% 0.30% JPMorgan Chase & Co 6:45 Q3 2016 1.39

8:30 US PPI Final Demand MoM Sep 0.00% 0.20% 0.20% Wells Fargo & Co 8:00 Q3 2016 1.01

8:30 US PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Sep 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% Citigroup Inc 8:00 Q3 2016 1.16

8:30 US PPI Final Demand YoY Sep 0.00% 0.60% 0.60%

8:30 US PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Sep 1.00% 1.20% 1.20%

10:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment Oct P 91.2 92.0

Source: Bloomberg

5

Tuesday

Oct 11

Earnings announcements

Economic calendar - Canada & U.S.

Country Release NBF Estimate

Company Time Qtr

Economic releases & eventsPeriod PreviousTime

Oct 10

Monday

Oct 14

Wednesday

Oct 12

Thursday

Oct 13

Friday

WEEKLY ECONOMIC WATCH

Annex - Economic tables

October 7, 2016Monthly Growth (%) Annualized Growth

Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since Year-to-date (3)

Otherwise Indicated Period Level Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

UNITED STATESMONETARY AGGREGATES ($Billions)

M1 Aug 2016 3317 2.8 -0.1 0.2 10.0 9.8 9.1 6.4 8.1

M2 Aug 2016 13008 0.9 0.6 0.6 8.2 7.8 7.5 6.6 5.8CREDIT MEASURES

Consumer Credit July 2016 3661 0.5 0.4 0.6 6.8 5.7 6.0 6.3 6.9Mortgage (Banks) * Aug 2016 4051 0.5 0.7 0.5 7.4 7.5 7.4 6.8 3.9Business * Aug 2016 2059 -0.3 0.4 0.3 4.9 10.9 8.5 9.9 11.6

CANADAMONETARY AGGREGATES

M2+ gross * July 2016 1836 1.0 0.4 0.7 7.6 6.6 6.9 6.3 4.5Personal Deposits (Banks) (2) * Aug 2016 896 0.4 0.6 0.5 6.5 7.6 7.6 6.9 3.5

CREDIT MEASURESConsumer * July 2016 561 0.4 0.3 0.4 4.8 3.4 3.3 2.9 3.1Mortgages * July 2016 1402 0.4 0.5 0.4 5.3 6.0 6.1 6.3 5.5Short - Term Business Loans * June 2016 499 0.6 1.4 -0.1 9.4 10.3 11.5 11.1 #VALUE!Business (S.T. + L.T.) * Aug 2016 1813 0.3 1.0 0.6 7.3 4.7 5.3 5.5 8.5Private (Consumer+Business) * July 2016 3771 0.7 0.5 0.5 5.5 5.0 5.4 5.4 6.6Gov. of Canada securities outstanding * Aug 2016 685 -0.4 1.7 -1.0 6.2 3.5 3.9 3.9 -0.1

INTEREST AND EXCHANGE RATESReference Last 1 week 2 w. Average of last Thursdays 13 w. 26 w. 52 w.Thursday day ago ago 13 w. 26 w. 52 w. ago ago ago

UNITED STATESINTEREST RATES

Federal Funds Target Rate * 6 Oct 16 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.46 0.50 0.50 0.25Prime Rate * 6 Oct 16 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.46 3.50 3.50 3.253-month Treasury Bills * 6 Oct 16 0.32 0.26 0.18 0.29 0.27 0.24 0.29 0.23 -0.012-year Bonds * 6 Oct 16 0.85 0.74 0.78 0.74 0.75 0.80 0.59 0.70 0.605-year Bonds * 6 Oct 16 1.28 1.11 1.17 1.14 1.18 1.31 0.96 1.14 1.4010-year Bonds * 6 Oct 16 1.74 1.56 1.63 1.59 1.65 1.84 1.38 1.69 2.1030-year Bonds * 6 Oct 16 2.46 2.27 2.35 2.30 2.42 2.62 2.14 2.51 2.94Corp. High-yield (BofA ML Master II) * 6 Oct 16 6.51 6.66 6.72 6.83 7.29 8.02 7.36 8.58 7.93Corp. Invest. Grade (BofA ML Corp. BBB) * 6 Oct 16 3.41 3.28 3.33 3.34 3.49 3.88 3.36 3.80 4.12

SpreadCorp. High-yield - Treas. 10y. * 6 Oct 16 4.77 5.11 5.08 5.24 5.63 6.18 5.97 6.89 5.83Corp. Invest. grade - Treas. 10y. * 6 Oct 16 1.67 1.73 1.70 1.75 1.84 2.04 1.98 2.11 2.02Treasuries 30y. - 3-m. T.B. * 6 Oct 16 2.14 2.01 2.17 2.01 2.14 2.38 1.85 2.28 2.95

EXCHANGE RATEFED Broad (Jan 97 = 100) * 30 Sept 16 121.62 121.63 121.97 121.31 120.85 121.47 119.87 121.44 121.00

CANADAINTEREST RATES

Prime Rate * 6 Oct 16 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70Target overnight rate * 6 Oct 16 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.5030-day commercial paper * 6 Oct 16 0.85 0.87 0.84 0.87 0.88 0.87 0.87 0.91 0.803-month Treasury Bills * 6 Oct 16 0.51 0.51 0.51 0.50 0.51 0.48 0.48 0.46 0.401-year Treasury Bills * 6 Oct 16 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.55 0.55 0.52 0.51 0.55 0.495-year Bonds * 6 Oct 16 0.71 0.57 0.69 0.65 0.68 0.71 0.54 0.69 0.8210-year Bonds * 6 Oct 16 1.14 0.95 1.10 1.06 1.16 1.26 0.98 1.20 1.4530-year Bonds * 6 Oct 16 1.80 1.63 1.73 1.68 1.80 1.96 1.56 1.96 2.25SPREADSPrime - 30d. Commercial paper * 6 Oct 16 1.85 1.83 1.86 1.83 1.82 1.83 1.83 1.79 1.90Long Term - Short Term * 6 Oct 16 1.29 1.12 1.22 1.18 1.29 1.48 1.08 1.50 1.85

CANADA UNITED STATES SPREADS3-month T-Bills * 6 Oct 16 0.19 0.25 0.33 0.22 0.24 0.24 0.19 0.23 0.41Long Term Bonds * 6 Oct 16 -0.66 -0.65 -0.62 -0.62 -0.62 -0.66 -0.58 -0.55 -0.69

EXCHANGE RATEUS$ /CDN$ (GTIS) * 6 Oct 16 0.7566 0.7609 0.7668 0.7673 0.7720 0.7561 0.7691 0.7608 0.7682Trade-weighted (1990=100) G-10 * 6 Oct 16 88.3 89.0 89.4 89.5 90.0 88.4 90.2 88.6 89.8

STOCK INDICES Monthly Growth (%) Growth Over (%)Reference Past Prev. Month Year-to-dateThursday Level Month Month Before 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year ref. prec.

Dow Jones (U.S.) * 6 Oct 16 18268.5 -1.5 0.0 3.5 2.0 3.1 8.8 2.4 -6.5S&P 500 (U.S.) * 6 Oct 16 2160.8 -1.2 0.2 4.0 2.9 4.6 9.1 3.3 -4.6NASDAQ (U.S.) * 6 Oct 16 5306.9 0.6 1.0 7.4 9.2 7.8 11.8 3.2 -0.7S&P/TSX (Can.) * 6 Oct 16 14595.5 -1.5 1.1 2.9 2.6 9.4 6.9 9.3 -5.7

* Update (1) Commercial Banks (2) Not seasonnally adjusted (3) compared to same period of the preceeding year,Source: Thomson Reuthers Datastream unless otherwise stated

TABLE 1 - NORTH AMERICAN FINANCIAL INDICATORS

A1

WEEKLY ECONOMIC WATCH

Annualized Growth (%)

Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since Year-to-date (9)

Otherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

Index of 12 Leading Indicators Aug 2016 -0.2 0.5 0.2 2.3 0.9 1.9 1.1 1.4 5.0Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100) Sept 2016 104.1 101.8 96.7 100.9 97.9 96.9 102.6 97.2 98.6I.S.M. Manufacturing Index (level) * Sept 2016 51.5 49.4 52.6 51.2 51.5 50.3 50.0 50.9 52.2

* Sept 2016 60.3 51.8 59.3 57.1 57.5 58.1 60.1 57.4 61.0

DOMESTIC DEMANDSales new autos & light trucks (000,000) * Sept 2016 17.8 17.0 17.9 17.5 17.4 17.5 18.1 17.4 17.2Retail Sales Aug 2016 -0.3 0.1 0.7 4.8 2.7 2.4 1.9 2.5 2.4

- Motor vehicle Aug 2016 -0.9 1.7 0.5 7.9 -1.2 3.9 1.4 2.6 6.8- Other Aug 2016 -0.1 -0.4 0.8 4.0 3.7 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.1

Consumer Spending: Total ($ current) Aug 2016 0.0 0.4 0.5 -8.1 0.5 2.5 -7.0 2.2 3.8Total ($ constant) Aug 2016 -0.1 0.3 0.4 3.8 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.6 3.4

Personal Income Aug 2016 0.2 0.4 0.3 4.3 3.0 3.5 3.1 3.3 4.6Personal Savings Rate (3) Aug 2016 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7New Orders * Aug 2016 0.2 1.4 -1.8 -4.1 -0.3 -3.8 -1.6 -3.1 -6.8

- Non-Defence Capital Goods exc. Aircraft * Aug 2016 0.9 0.8 0.5 2.3 -5.1 -4.0 -2.8 -4.2 -2.9Unfilled Orders * Aug 2016 -0.1 -0.2 -0.9 -3.5 -1.1 -2.3 -2.1 -2.0 3.9Business Inventories July 2016 0.0 0.2 0.2 2.0 0.6 1.3 0.5 0.9 2.7Inventories / Shipments Businesses July 2016 1.39 1.39 1.40 1.39 1.40 1.40 1.37 1.40 1.37Manufacturers' Shipments * Aug 2016 0.0 -0.4 0.6 2.4 -1.0 -3.8 -2.0 -3.2 -4.1Manufacturers' Inventories * Aug 2016 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 -2.1 -2.7 -2.2 -2.9 -0.2Inventories / Shipments Manuf. * Aug 2016 1.36 1.36 1.35 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.36Housing Starts (000) (1) Aug 2016 1142 1212 1195 1183 1158 1157 1132 1161 1088New Home Sales, single-family Aug 2016 -7.6 13.8 2.3 48.6 34.8 10.6 20.6 13.0 19.0Existing Home Sales, s.f. & condos Aug 2016 -0.9 -3.4 1.1 -0.5 6.4 3.4 0.8 3.3 7.6

PRODUCTIONIndustrial Production Aug 2016 -0.5 0.6 0.6 3.4 -1.1 -1.2 -1.1 -1.2 1.1

- Consumer Goods Aug 2016 -0.2 0.4 0.7 4.3 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.7 1.7- Hitech goods Aug 2016 0.3 1.2 0.4 6.2 2.5 1.7 4.6 2.5 3.1

EXTERNAL AND FISCAL BALANCESExports * Aug 2016 0.8 1.9 0.8 11.9 -0.2 -5.0 0.7 -4.1 -3.9Imports * Aug 2016 1.2 -0.7 1.9 14.6 -1.8 -4.3 -1.2 -3.6 -2.6Merch. Trade Balance ($ billions) * Aug 2016 -40.7 -39.5 -44.7 -41.6 -40.4 -41.3 -44.6 -41.3 -41.9Real merchandise trade balance * Aug 2016 -57.5 -58.2 -64.5 -60.1 -59.1 -60.1 -61.4 -60.0 -58.8Federal budget balance last 12 months (2) Aug 2016 -529.9 -487.2 -523.6 -424.2 -405.2 -353.3

INFLATION AND COSTSConsumer Prices Aug 2016 0.2 0.0 0.2 2.2 1.2 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.0

- Excluding Food and Energy Aug 2016 0.3 0.1 0.2 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.2 1.8PCE Deflator exc. Food and Energy Aug 2016 0.2 0.1 0.1 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.4Producer price index for final demand Aug 2016 0.0 -0.4 0.5 2.3 0.7 -0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.7Average Hourly Earnings (4) * Sept 2016 0.2 0.2 0.3 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.0Industrial Capacity Utilization Rate Aug 2016 75.5 75.9 75.5 75.6 75.4 75.6 76.7 75.4 77.0Median Price, Single-Family Homes (5) Aug 2016 -1.2 -1.9 4.0 26.2 18.0 5.8 5.3 5.4 7.0

LABOUR MARKETNew Jobs (000) (6) * Sept 2016 156 167 252 192 169 204 2447 1601 1898

- Manufacturing (000) * Sept 2016 -13 -16 2 -9 -5 -4 -47 -58 15- Services (000) * Sept 2016 146 192 238 192 180 199 2385 1667 1840

Average weekly hours (6) * Sept 2016 0.1 -0.5 0.5 1.3 0.8 1.7 1.2 1.7 2.3Civilian Unemployment Rate (7) * Sept 2016 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.1 4.9 5.4

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND OTHER Annualized Growth RatesQUARTERLY INDICATORS Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q2 2015 2014 2013 2012Real GDP Chained 2009 dollars 1.4 0.8 0.9 2.0 2.6 2.0 2.4 2.2 2.3Consumption 4.3 1.6 2.3 2.7 2.9 2.4 3.2 2.9 1.5Residential Construction -7.8 7.8 11.5 12.6 14.8 13.4 11.7 3.5 11.9Business Investment 1.0 -3.4 -3.3 3.9 1.6 1.3 2.1 6.0 3.5

- Machinery and Equipment 4.1 11.8 -2.6 4.8 0.0 #VALUE! 6.9 0.0 #VALUE!Government Spending -1.7 1.6 1.0 1.9 3.2 2.6 1.8 -0.9 -2.9Exports 1.8 -0.7 -2.7 -2.8 2.8 -5.8 0.1 4.3 3.5Imports 0.2 -0.6 0.7 1.1 2.9 5.6 4.6 4.4 1.1Change in Inventories (1) (2) -9.5 40.7 56.9 70.9 93.8 114.4 84.0 57.7 78.7GDP Deflator 2.3 0.5 0.9 1.2 2.2 0.0 1.1 1.8 1.6Personal Disposable Income 2.1 2.1 3.0 3.3 3.9 2.0 3.5 3.5 -1.4

Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 2014 2013 2012Labour Productivity (4) -0.6 -0.6 -2.4 2.0 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.3Unit Labor Costs (4) 4.3 -0.3 5.7 0.8 3.6 0.7 2.0 2.0 1.0

Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 2014 2013 2012Current Account (current $) -479.5 -527.4 -453.6 -492.4 -447.6 -458.2 -463.0 -392.1 -366.4

as a % of GDP -2.6 -2.9 -2.5 -2.7 -2.5 -2.6 -2.6 -2.3 -2.2Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 2014 2013 2012

Corporate Profits (8) -2.4 14.1 -22.3 -3.2 -11.4 -6.8 -3.0 5.9 1.7as a % of GDP 11.0 11.1 10.8 11.6 11.7 12.2 11.6 12.0 12.5

* Update Source: Thomson-Reuthers Datastream(1) Annual Rate (5) Existing Homes Sold (9) Compated to same period of the(2) $ Billions (6) Non-Farm Payroll Survey preceeding year, unless otherwise(3) Personal Savings as a % of Personal Disposable Income (7) Household Survey stated(4) Nonfarm Business (8) Current $ and before taxes

- Non-manufacturing (level)

Annex - Economic tablesTABLE 2 - UNITED STATES ECONOMIC INDICATORS

October 7, 2016Monthly Growth (%)

A2

WEEKLY ECONOMIC WATCH

TABLE 3 - CANADIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORSOctober 7, 2016

Annualized Growth (%) Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since Year-to-date (6)Otherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

CFIB Business Barometer ® Sept 2016 -1.3 3.7 -3.9 -2.0 11.8 -5.8 5.4 -3.8 -8.1

DOMESTIC DEMANDRetail Sales ($ current) July 2016 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.9 3.3 2.3 4.2 1.4

- Motor vehicle and parts dealers July 2016 -0.2 1.7 -2.3 -9.8 1.9 8.0 4.2 8.8 4.6- Other July 2016 -0.1 -0.6 0.8 4.7 3.3 1.7 1.7 2.7 1.0

Retail Sales ($ constant) July 2016 0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -2.4 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.8 1.4

Manufacturer's Shipments ($ current) July 2016 0.1 0.8 -0.5 2.3 -3.8 -0.6 -2.6 0.2 -1.4New Orders July 2016 -2.9 0.7 1.9 23.7 -1.9 -2.7 -7.7 -1.5 -4.0

- Durables July 2016 -5.6 1.2 3.2 35.0 -0.8 -1.8 -11.0 -0.5 -1.8Unfilled Orders July 2016 -0.1 1.6 1.7 7.7 -9.5 -3.1 -6.2 -7.8 11.2Manufacturer's Inventories July 2016 1.0 -0.2 0.1 -0.5 -4.4 0.7 -2.1 -1.0 1.1Inventories / Shipments Ratio July 2016 1.41 1.40 1.41 1.41 1.41 1.41 1.40 1.41 1.42Manufacturer's Shipments ($ constant) July 2016 0.6 0.3 -1.9 -1.8 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 1.1 -0.3

Housing Starts (000) (1) Aug 2016 182.4 194.6 218.4 198.5 195.6 198.4 214.0 195.6 188.5Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Aug 2016 -3.1 -1.3 -1.0 -12.2 8.4 7.0 1.3 8.0 5.7Number of commercial bankrupties (2) Sep 1900 -24.5 5.2 0.4 -43.1 4.8 -3.5 -18.3 -4.7 -0.2PRODUCTION Real Domestic Product July 2016 0.5 0.6 -0.6 0.0 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.0

- Manufacturing July 2016 0.4 1.5 -2.0 -2.3 0.1 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.7- Construction July 2016 -0.8 -0.4 -0.8 -5.2 -2.8 -4.8 -3.8 -3.8 -2.8

Services July 2016 0.3 0.2 0.2 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.2

EXTERNAL, FISCAL AND EXCHANGE BALANCESExports * Aug 2016 0.6 4.6 0.1 12.4 -9.4 -1.8 -2.5 -2.5 -0.7Imports * Aug 2016 0.0 0.1 0.9 4.3 -3.4 0.4 -3.3 -0.6 5.6

- Capital Goods * Aug 2016 -2.4 -0.8 -0.2 -10.8 -7.8 0.7 -5.8 -2.1 9.2Merch. Trade Balance ($ millions) * Aug 2016 -1,939 -2,185 -4,001 -2,708 -3,084 -2,411 -2,356 -2,734 -1,925Change in Official Reserves * Sept 2016 439 852 -617 225 334 480 5,759 4,442 5,320

Level (US$): $84.2 billion Fiscal year Fed. budget balance last 12 months ($ billions) * July 2016 -9.9 -8.0 -5.8 6.9 -2.8 5.2

INFLATION AND COSTSConsumer Prices Aug 2016 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 1.8 2.6 1.4 1.1 1.5 1.1

- Excluding Food and Energy Aug 2016 0.0 -0.1 0.1 1.4 2.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9- Core inflation (4) Aug 2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.8 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.2

Average Hourly Earnings (2) * Sept 2016 1.3 0.1 -0.4 -1.4 0.0 2.5 1.4 2.3 2.7Price of New Housing icluding land July 2016 0.4 0.1 0.7 4.6 2.6 1.9 2.8 2.2 1.2Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Aug 2016 -2.6 -1.1 -0.3 -8.3 9.5 11.6 6.2 12.7 7.9Industrial Prices (1992=100) Aug 2016 -0.5 0.2 0.8 5.8 -1.3 -0.6 -1.3 -0.9 -1.2

LABOUR MARKETLabour Force * Sept 2016 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.4 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7Job creation (000) * Sept 2016 67.2 26.2 -31.2 20.7 12.2 11.6 138.8 105.8 122.4

- Manufacturing * Sept 2016 6.3 2.9 5.6 4.9 -0.4 -1.0 -12.2 -37.6 12.0- Services * Sept 2016 55.5 15.4 -26.9 14.7 19.9 14.4 173.3 169.2 168.3- Full Time * Sept 2016 23.1 52.2 -71.4 1.3 3.7 4.2 50.3 11.0 108.1- Part Time * Sept 2016 44.1 -26.0 40.2 19.4 8.6 7.4 88.5 94.8 14.3

Unemployment Rate * Sept 2016 7.0 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.0 6.8

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND OTHER Annualized Growth RatesQUARTERLY INDICATORS Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 2015 2014 2013GDP Chained (2007) $ -1.6 2.5 0.5 2.2 -0.5 -1.0 1.1 2.5 2.2Household consumption 2.2 2.4 1.8 2.3 2.3 -0.1 1.9 2.6 2.4Business Investments, non-res., mach. & equip. -1.9 -8.1 -12.5 -11.4 -15.5 -23.2 -10.6 0.0 2.5

-Machinery and Equipment 1.9 -0.7 -8.1 -6.7 -15.7 -5.1 -2.4 1.0 -6.7Residential Construction 1.2 11.3 1.8 2.6 0.1 6.6 3.8 2.5 -0.4Government Expenditures 4.2 2.7 0.4 0.6 2.8 4.7 1.7 0.3 0.3Government Fixed Capital Formation 2.7 -1.3 -4.0 -1.6 -0.6 1.9 2.5 4.0 -6.4Final Domestic Demand 2.2 1.8 -0.3 0.3 -0.1 -2.2 0.3 1.6 1.3Exports -16.7 8.0 -1.5 9.0 1.2 0.9 3.4 5.3 2.8Imports 1.1 1.6 -7.0 -2.8 -1.8 0.9 0.3 1.8 1.5Change in Inventories, chained (2007) $ (5) 0.5 -9.0 -5.6 -0.2 6.8 14.6 3.9 9.9 15.5Real Disposible Income 4.6 3.4 1.1 -2.6 7.4 0.8 2.6 1.2 3.4Personal savings Rate 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.3 5.2 4.8 4.6 4.2 5.4GDP Price Deflator 1.4 -1.4 0.0 0.0 1.8 -3.2 -0.5 1.7 1.6Corporate Profits (nominal) -33.0 -2.7 -19.1 -5.1 -2.6 -44.1 -15.8 7.0 0.8

as a % of GDP 9.8 10.9 11.0 11.6 11.8 11.9 11.6 13.8 13.5Indust. Capacity Utilization Rate 80.0 81.4 80.9 81.2 80.2 81.4 80.9 82.1 80.8Labour Productivity, Business Sector -1.3 1.4 -0.1 0.6 -3.9 -2.7 -0.4 2.5 1.3Unit Labour Cost, Business Sector 3.0 -1.9 3.5 -1.5 2.2 5.7 1.9 1.1 1.6

Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 2015 2014 2013Current Account (current $) (5) -79.4 -66.4 -62.8 -61.8 -58.0 -67.9 -62.6 -44.9 -59.7

as a % of GDP -4.0 -3.3 -3.2 -3.1 -2.9 -3.4 -3.2 -2.3 -3.0

Sources: Thomson reuthers Datastream and Canadian Real Estate Association

* Update

(1) Annual Rate (4) C.P.I. excluding the 8 most volatile components and the effect of indirect taxes

(2) Not Seasonally Adjusted (5) Annual rate, $ billions

(3) Current and before taxes (6) Compared to same period of the preceeding year, unless otherwise stated

Annex - Economic tables

Monthly Growth (%)

A3

WEEKLY ECONOMIC WATCH

Annualized Growth (%) Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since Year-to-date (3)Otherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

QUEBECDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales July 2016 0.2 -0.4 1.0 2.5 4.5 3.2 3.8 4.5 -0.1Manufacturing Shipments July 2016 0.9 0.6 1.0 8.7 -7.4 -2.2 -3.1 -2.6 0.2Housing Starts (000) (2) Aug 2016 35.9 32.4 38.4 35.6 35.6 38.2 39.8 36.5 34.5Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Aug 2016 -1.5 0.7 0.0 1.3 5.3 5.3 3.0 5.7 5.4Wages and Salaries June 2016 0.5 0.7 -1.2 1.1 3.6 2.2 2.9 2.6 2.4Value of merchandise exports (1) * Aug 2016 -0.7 -7.0 6.4 -6.5 -10.8 -0.9 -1.0 -3.1 10.3CFIB Business Barometer ® Sept 2016 3.4 1.3 4.1 28.4 8.1 7.0 12.8 9.8 -3.2Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Jun 2016 1.3 4.1 28.4 8.1 7.0 12.8 #VALUE! -3.2 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Aug 2016 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.9 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.8 1.1Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Sept 2016 1.1 1.0 -0.4 0.1 1.2 2.9 2.2 2.8 1.8Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) July 2016 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.0Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Aug 2016 2.0 -0.7 0.5 5.7 2.5 2.3 3.2 2.6 1.4

LABOR MARKET

Job creation (000) * Sept 2016 38.3 21.9 -4.0 18.7 11.4 5.1 60.6 57.4 45.4Unemployment rate * Sept 2016 6.9 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.4 7.7 7.3 7.7Participation rate * Sept 2016 64.9 64.4 64.1 64.5 64.4 64.6 64.9 64.5 64.8

ONTARIODOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales July 2016 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.2 5.2 3.3 5.6 3.9Manufacturing Shipments July 2016 -0.1 1.2 -1.1 -3.1 -1.7 4.7 -0.1 5.7 0.7Housing Starts (000) (2) Aug 2016 72.2 75.4 87.8 78.5 76.8 76.1 95.0 75.5 64.6Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Aug 2016 -0.5 -0.1 0.2 3.2 12.5 8.0 6.3 8.1 10.3Wages and Salaries June 2016 0.6 0.2 0.2 4.4 4.1 3.9 4.3 3.9 3.9Value of merchandise exports (1) * Aug 2016 19.4 -14.0 3.6 -15.2 -9.4 8.6 4.7 7.2 11.0CFIB Business Barometer ® Sept 2016 -3.5 2.4 -0.5 -11.3 7.2 -3.8 1.0 -2.5 -2.1Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Jun 2016 #REF! #REF! #REF! 7.2 -3.8 1.0 #VALUE! -2.1 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Aug 2016 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 2.0 3.2 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.2Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Sept 2016 1.2 -0.1 -0.6 -2.0 -0.4 2.8 1.1 2.6 3.0Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) July 2016 0.8 0.4 1.4 9.9 4.8 3.7 5.3 4.2 2.1Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Aug 2016 1.9 1.1 1.4 18.0 17.5 11.1 15.7 12.9 7.6

LABOR MARKET

Job creation (000) * Sept 2016 16.2 10.5 -36.1 -3.1 0.8 6.8 82.1 27.2 29.6

Unemployment rate * Sept 2016 6.6 6.7 6.4 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.9 6.7 6.7Participation rate * Sept 2016 64.8 64.8 64.6 64.7 64.9 65.1 65.0 65.1 65.2

NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADORDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales July 2016 -6.2 0.7 1.1 -2.2 1.4 1.4 -3.9 1.9 -0.1Manufacturing Shipments July 2016 2.5 -0.1 -4.9 14.7 -25.0 -12.3 -22.9 -20.9 -9.5Housing Starts (000) (2) Aug 2016 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.8Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Aug 2016 4.9 -11.1 7.8 -7.3 11.5 2.1 -0.6 1.5 3.8Wages and Salaries June 2016 0.9 -1.4 0.6 3.0 -0.9 1.1 -0.4 -0.2 3.7Value of merchandise exports (1) * Aug 2016 15.8 -15.4 20.1 241.6 19.6 -15.3 -15.7 -16.8 -35.7CFIB Business Barometer ® Sept 2016 8.8 -24.4 9.3 -21.3 -43.5 -15.1 -33.2 -19.2 -15.0Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Jun 2016 -24.4 9.3 -21.3 -43.5 -15.1 -33.2 0.0 -15.0 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Aug 2016 -0.2 0.9 1.1 8.8 4.6 1.7 3.0 2.2 0.2Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Sept 2016 3.0 1.7 -2.0 -4.7 -4.5 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 -1.3Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) July 2016 -0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.4 0.1 0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.2Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Aug 2016 2.5 -5.9 6.3 3.4 -8.1 -5.2 -9.7 -7.5 -4.0

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) * Sept 2016 -1.2 3.9 -5.0 -0.8 0.6 -0.1 -0.8 1.9 -2.1Unemployment * Sept 2016 13.6 12.3 12.8 12.9 12.5 13.1 13.7 12.9 12.6Participation rate * Sept 2016 61.1 60.5 59.8 60.5 60.7 60.8 61.7 60.6 61.1

PRINCE EDWARD ISLANDDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales July 2016 -0.1 0.1 0.7 6.1 6.8 5.2 5.8 6.5 1.5Manufacturing Shipments July 2016 6.3 -11.0 9.4 12.6 -3.7 -0.6 -2.7 1.1 4.7Housing Starts (000) (2) Aug 2016 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Aug 2016 10.8 -5.1 -5.9 -1.5 46.9 25.3 17.1 24.7 17.8Wages and Salaries June 2016 0.6 0.4 -0.1 3.4 2.1 4.5 3.9 4.2 2.4Value of merchandise exports (1) * Aug 2016 -5.9 5.3 7.3 95.0 -12.5 3.9 -10.7 -0.1 20.0CFIB Business Barometer ® Sept 2016 -9.3 2.5 1.1 -18.6 28.0 -1.5 6.5 -1.9 17.9Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Jun 2016 2.5 1.1 18.6 28.0 1.5 6.5 #VALUE! 17.9 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Aug 2016 -0.4 -0.5 0.3 0.8 2.6 0.6 0.4 1.0 -0.8Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Sept 2016 1.6 -0.1 0.8 -4.5 -2.4 1.5 2.8 1.2 2.4Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) July 2016 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -1.3 1.9 0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.1Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Aug 2016 8.6 -6.1 11.3 19.6 30.7 3.9 24.0 8.7 2.0

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) * Sept 2016 0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -1.9 -1.4 0.0Unemployment * Sept 2016 10.8 12.1 9.6 10.8 10.9 10.6 9.2 10.8 10.6Participation rate * Sept 2016 65.5 66.3 64.7 65.5 65.7 66.2 66.7 65.9 67.6

Sources: Thomson Reuthers Datastream and Canadian Real estate Association* Update (1) Not Seasonally Adjusted (2) Annual Rate (3) Compared to sdame priod of the preceeding year, unless otherwise stated

Annex - Economic tablesTABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS

October 7, 2016Monthly Growth (%)

A4

WEEKLY ECONOMIC WATCH

October 7, 2016 Annualized Growth (%)

Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since Year-to-date (3)Otherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

NOVA SCOTIADOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales July 2016 0.6 -0.8 0.1 -1.2 2.0 3.1 0.8 4.5 -1.9Manufacturing Shipments July 2016 -1.9 -1.6 7.8 21.0 -4.0 6.9 0.5 4.9 4.5Housing Starts (000) (2) Aug 2016 2.7 4.3 4.9 4.0 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.4 4.3Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Aug 2016 -3.1 2.4 -2.6 -12.7 1.9 6.5 29.3 7.1 1.5Wages and Salaries June 2016 1.1 -0.8 -0.3 0.0 1.7 2.5 2.0 2.1 1.6Value of merchandise exports (1) * Aug 2016 1.9 -9.2 -1.9 7.7 3.4 4.8 -7.5 -0.8 -4.6CFIB Business Barometer ® Sept 2016 -1.1 6.6 -4.9 -15.0 -16.8 2.1 -3.3 -1.6 9.7Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Jun 2016 6.6 -4.9 -15.0 -16.8 2.1 -3.3 #VALUE! 9.7 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Aug 2016 0.0 -0.5 0.2 1.5 2.7 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.4Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Sept 2016 1.6 0.3 -0.4 4.8 2.6 1.3 5.0 2.4 1.4Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) July 2016 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.8Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Aug 2016 -1.6 -0.1 1.0 2.8 -0.7 0.0 -3.8 -1.2 2.0

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) * Sept 2016 -1.8 -0.1 -1.4 -1.1 -0.7 -0.6 -7.1 -2.5 -0.6Unemployment * Sept 2016 8.1 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.3 8.5 8.9 8.5 8.7Participation rate * Sept 2016 61.1 61.6 61.6 61.5 61.7 61.9 62.9 61.8 62.4

NEW BRUNSWICKDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales July 2016 -6.9 2.3 -1.3 -3.4 0.1 4.9 -3.1 5.3 1.2Manufacturing Shipments July 2016 2.3 -3.9 -4.5 10.3 1.8 -12.7 -12.1 -10.5 -5.5Housing Starts (000) (2) Aug 2016 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.7Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Aug 2016 3.2 1.7 2.4 39.1 4.5 5.4 5.1 5.1 6.9Wages and Salaries June 2016 0.1 0.4 0.1 4.5 3.1 3.5 4.7 3.6 2.5Value of merchandise exports (1) * Aug 2016 15.4 -7.8 -6.8 51.8 42.8 -15.6 10.4 -15.7 -2.3CFIB Business Barometer ® Sept 2016 -6.0 -0.5 -2.5 14.5 3.8 -2.9 -3.6 -2.4 4.0Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Jun 2016 -0.5 -2.5 14.5 3.8 -2.9 -3.6 #VALUE! 4.0 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Aug 2016 -0.3 0.7 0.3 4.5 3.8 1.5 2.2 1.9 0.5Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Sept 2016 2.9 0.8 0.5 5.2 1.6 0.8 4.9 1.0 3.9Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) July 2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.0 0.3 -0.5Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Aug 2016 2.0 0.5 -0.9 9.6 4.3 1.3 7.9 1.4 -1.9

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) * Sept 2016 4.4 -3.0 5.0 2.1 1.8 0.4 4.4 3.2 0.2Unemployment * Sept 2016 9.3 9.4 9.7 9.5 9.7 9.5 8.8 9.7 10.1Participation rate * Sept 2016 62.9 62.2 63.0 62.7 62.4 62.3 62.0 62.3 62.8

MANITOBADOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales July 2016 -0.9 -0.2 0.8 -2.5 3.4 4.5 1.9 5.9 0.7Manufacturing Shipments July 2016 -3.1 0.1 -5.1 -16.9 -5.3 0.0 -5.2 0.3 -2.3Housing Starts (000) (2) Aug 2016 4.9 8.1 5.2 6.1 5.3 5.4 4.9 5.3 5.5Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Aug 2016 -3.7 1.1 -0.4 -11.8 6.0 4.6 -2.2 5.2 1.0Wages and Salaries June 2016 0.6 -0.5 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.0 1.9 2.6 3.2Value of merchandise exports (1) * Aug 2016 0.7 -4.3 -7.4 -32.6 -11.7 3.0 -0.7 -0.2 -1.2CFIB Business Barometer ® Sept 2016 -2.4 -0.6 -2.4 -5.3 -18.3 0.5 1.4 -0.9 -8.8Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Jun 2016 -0.6 -2.4 -5.3 -18.3 0.5 1.4 #VALUE! -8.8 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Aug 2016 0.2 -0.8 0.9 3.6 2.6 1.5 1.1 1.5 1.0Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Sept 2016 0.9 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -2.1 3.0 0.0 2.5 3.1Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) July 2016 0.1 0.2 0.2 2.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 0.8Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Aug 2016 0.2 -0.1 1.6 6.2 2.8 1.7 1.2 2.1 1.6

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) * Sept 2016 -2.1 -2.4 0.2 -1.4 -0.7 -0.6 -6.6 -2.2 3.6Unemployment * Sept 2016 6.4 5.9 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.2 6.1 5.6Participation rate * Sept 2016 67.3 67.3 67.8 67.6 67.6 67.8 68.1 67.6 68.3

SASKATCHEWANDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales July 2016 -3.3 3.3 -0.7 3.9 2.9 -0.6 0.8 1.1 -3.8Manufacturing Shipments July 2016 -3.6 1.2 1.2 6.9 -4.2 -6.7 -4.3 -3.4 -12.1Housing Starts (000) (2) Aug 2016 6.6 5.9 4.8 5.7 4.9 5.0 4.3 4.9 5.2Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Aug 2016 -4.9 4.5 -3.0 -12.3 -12.0 -7.3 -9.7 -6.2 -11.4Wages and Salaries June 2016 0.4 -0.5 0.3 -0.5 -0.2 0.5 0.2 -0.1 2.9Value of merchandise exports (1) * Aug 2016 -3.0 7.6 5.0 17.0 -35.5 -17.1 -17.6 -22.4 -7.7CFIB Business Barometer ® Sept 2016 -1.6 7.4 -6.6 14.0 -6.2 -5.6 -9.7 -3.8 -17.6Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Jun 2016 7.4 -6.6 14.0 -6.2 -5.6 -9.7 #VALUE! -17.6 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Aug 2016 -0.2 -0.4 0.5 1.4 2.2 1.4 0.7 1.3 1.6Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Sept 2016 2.8 0.4 -0.3 -0.4 0.7 3.2 5.3 3.3 2.3Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) July 2016 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -1.8 -2.0 -1.4 -2.0 -1.6 -0.5Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Aug 2016 1.4 1.4 0.9 8.4 1.5 -1.6 1.9 -1.1 0.4

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) * Sept 2016 0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 0.2 -0.5 -6.5 -5.8 1.1Unemployment * Sept 2016 6.8 6.3 6.3 6.5 6.3 6.0 5.2 6.2 4.8Participation rate * Sept 2016 70.1 69.8 69.9 69.9 69.9 70.1 70.4 69.9 69.9

Sources: Thomson Reuthers Datastream and Canadian Real estate Association* Update (1) Not Seasonally Adjusted (2) Annual Rate (3) Compared to sdame priod of the preceeding year, unless otherwise stated

Annex - Economic tablesTABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Continues from page A4)

Monthly Growth (%)

A5

WEEKLY ECONOMIC WATCH

Annualized Growth (%) Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since Year-to-date (3)Otherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

ALBERTADOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales July 2016 -0.8 -0.6 -1.2 -3.2 -3.1 -3.5 -3.8 -2.0 -3.9Manufacturing Shipments July 2016 -1.5 2.0 -1.2 11.0 -10.0 -14.6 -11.3 -13.0 -11.8Housing Starts (000) (2) Aug 2016 20.0 25.8 24.1 23.3 23.8 27.2 34.6 23.6 39.1Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Aug 2016 -4.0 -0.2 3.3 10.4 0.2 -15.8 -12.4 -11.4 -20.4Wages and Salaries June 2016 0.4 -2.1 0.0 -7.1 -6.0 -4.3 -5.5 -5.3 2.0Value of merchandise exports (1) * Aug 2016 14.7 -1.7 11.7 80.8 -25.5 -25.4 -14.3 -22.7 -21.1CFIB Business Barometer ® Sept 2016 3.3 -2.5 9.9 201.2 69.1 -30.0 38.5 -19.5 -36.9Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Jun 2016 -2.5 9.9 201.2 69.1 -30.0 38.5 #VALUE! -36.9 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Aug 2016 0.2 -0.5 0.5 2.1 2.0 1.4 0.7 1.3 1.0Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Sept 2016 1.1 -1.2 0.3 -3.8 0.2 2.7 0.9 2.3 3.1Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) July 2016 0.0 -0.4 0.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 1.4Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Aug 2016 -2.2 3.4 -0.7 6.4 2.3 -1.6 0.6 -0.6 -1.4

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) * Sept 2016 13.3 2.7 -1.4 4.9 -5.4 -3.9 -47.1 -21.9 5.6Unemployment * Sept 2016 8.5 8.4 8.6 8.5 8.1 7.6 6.6 7.9 5.8Participation rate * Sept 2016 72.7 72.2 72.3 72.4 72.2 72.5 73.4 72.4 73.1

BRITISH COLUMBIADOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales July 2016 0.9 0.1 -0.1 5.2 6.7 6.3 6.4 6.6 6.2Manufacturing Shipments July 2016 2.2 -0.3 1.2 7.0 4.9 0.7 4.0 1.9 4.0Housing Starts (000) (2) Aug 2016 35.4 39.5 49.8 41.6 41.9 39.1 27.4 42.6 31.2Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Aug 2016 -10.0 -6.2 -5.8 -49.2 8.8 23.1 -4.2 23.3 21.5Wages and Salaries June 2016 0.2 -0.3 1.2 6.1 4.4 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.3Value of merchandise exports * Aug 2016 -2.2 12.5 -4.2 7.9 -0.8 0.5 4.0 0.5 0.7CFIB Business Barometer ® Sept 2016 -3.5 -1.2 -4.1 -12.1 6.6 -7.1 0.6 -6.3 -3.6Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Jun 2016 -1.2 -4.1 -12.1 6.6 -7.1 0.6 #VALUE! -3.6 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) Aug 2016 0.1 0.2 0.3 3.9 3.3 1.8 2.0 1.9 0.8Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Sept 2016 1.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.4 1.5 0.7 1.1 2.9Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) July 2016 0.6 0.4 1.0 7.4 5.9 3.2 5.3 4.2 0.2Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Aug 2016 -14.9 -0.9 -1.8 -31.0 0.4 14.1 -7.4 14.1 10.4

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) * Sept 2016 -0.6 -6.6 12.1 1.6 4.3 5.1 61.5 49.8 39.8Unemployment * Sept 2016 5.7 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.4 6.0 6.1Participation rate * Sept 2016 64.1 64.1 64.4 64.2 64.3 64.3 63.8 64.3 63.2

Sources: Thomson-Reuthers Datastream, Canadian Real estate Association and BCStats

* Update (1) Not Seasonally Adjusted (2) Annual Rate (3) Compared to sdame priod of the preceeding year, unless otherwise stated

Monthly Growth (%)October 7, 2016

Annex - Economic tablesTABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Continues from page A5)

A6

WEEKLY ECONOMIC WATCH

TABLE 5 - INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC INDICATORSOctober 7, 2016

Annualized Growth (%) Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since Year-to-date (2)Otherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

OECD leading index July 2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.1

JAPANConsumer confidence - percenbtage (1) * Sept 2016 43.0 42.6 41.6 42.4 42.0 41.7 40.9 41.7 41.3Retail Sales (1) Aug 2016 -5.8 6.0 -1.8 -6.9 -0.1 -0.7 -2.1 -0.9 -0.5Industrial Production, Volume Index Aug 2016 1.5 -0.4 2.3 3.8 0.1 -1.6 1.2 -1.8 -1.3Exports Aug 2016 0.0 -1.7 1.1 -5.1 -11.6 -7.8 -10.7 -9.7 7.6Imports Aug 2016 -1.3 -1.7 0.3 -7.5 -22.2 -16.6 -21.0 -18.4 -6.2Merchandise trade bal. (Billions of ¥) July 2016 3,616 4,658 3,286 3,853 3,737 2,134 -1,207 24,604 -7,036Current account (Billions of ¥) July 2016 145 165 141 150 161 154 138 1,111 892Inflation (CPI) Aug 2016 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 -0.7 -0.5 -0.1 -0.5 -0.2 1.1Job offers to applicants ratio Aug 2016 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.35 1.31 1.22 1.33 1.18Unemployment Rate Aug 2016 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.2 3.4

Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 2015 2014 2013Gross Domestic Product (Constant Yen) 0.7 2.1 -1.7 2.1 -1.9 5.0 0.6 -0.1 1.4

Euro-zoneVolume Retail Sales * Aug 2016 0.0 0.3 0.0 2.1 1.6 2.2 1.4 1.9 2.8Industrial Production exc. Construction July 2016 -1.1 0.9 -1.1 -1.8 0.0 1.5 -0.6 1.0 1.9Exports July 2016 -1.1 1.0 -1.7 -3.8 -1.2 0.1 -3.5 -1.8 6.6Imports July 2016 1.4 1.4 -1.3 -3.0 -4.6 -1.9 -2.6 -4.0 2.6Merch. Trade Bal. (Millions of euros) July 2016 20,041 23,808 24,083 22,644 24,309 24,570 23,171 157,937 137,200Inflation (CPI) Sept 2016 0.4 0.1 -0.6 -0.5 1.3 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0Unemployment Rate Aug 2016 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.3 10.7 10.2 11.0

Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 2013 2012 2011Gross Domestic Product (Constant Euro) 1.2 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.4 3.3 -0.4 -0.7 0.0

UNITED KINGDOMConsumer Confidence (Diffusion index) Sept 2016 -2 -8 -9 -6 -3 -1 0 -2 4Retail Sales Aug 2016 -0.2 1.9 -0.8 6.3 5.0 4.7 6.2 4.9 4.4Manufacturing, energy and mining output * Aug 2016 -0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 3.1 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.4Exports (1) * Aug 2016 0.2 7.2 1.0 4.9 17.4 -0.3 10.6 2.8 -1.6Imports (1) * Aug 2016 7.5 -4.5 5.1 16.9 11.5 0.8 13.0 3.9 0.5Merchandise Trade Bal. (Millions of £) * Aug 2016 -12,112 -9,506 -12,920 -11,513 -11,262 -11,553 -10,403 -89,128 -83,940

Inflation (CPI harmonized) (1) Aug 2016 0.4 -0.1 0.2 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.0Producer price index, manufacturing (1) Aug 2016 0.1 0.3 0.3 2.8 1.8 -0.8 0.8 -0.4 -1.7House prices * Sept 2016 0.1 -0.2 -1.1 -0.5 5.0 8.4 5.5 8.0 8.7Unemployment Rate (3-month mov. av.) July 2016 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.5 5.0 5.6

Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 2015 2014 2013Gross Domestic Product (Constant £) 2.7 1.7 2.7 1.2 2.0 1.2 2.2 3.1 1.9

INTEREST AND EXCHANGE RATESReference Current Prev. Week Average of last Thurdays 13 w. 26 w. 52 w.Thursday Week Week Before 13 W. 26 W. 52 W. ago ago ago

JAPANPrime Rate * 6 Oct 16 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.303-month Financing Bill Rate * 6 Oct 16 -0.32 -0.38 -0.34 -0.29 -0.30 -0.19 -0.31 -0.50 -0.01

- Spread with U.S. * 6 Oct 16 -0.64 -0.64 -0.52 -0.58 -0.58 -0.43 -0.60 -0.73 0.01Yield on 10-year Gov't Bonds * 6 Oct 16 -0.06 -0.08 -0.02 -0.11 -0.12 0.02 -0.28 -0.05 0.33

- Spread with U.S. * 6 Oct 16 -1.80 -1.64 -1.65 -1.69 -1.77 -1.82 -1.66 -1.74 -1.77Exchange Rate (¥/U.S.$) * 6 Oct 16 103.9 101.0 100.7 102.5 104.8 110.8 100.8 108.2 119.9

Euro Zone3-month Treasury Bills * 6 Oct 16 -0.25 -0.25 -0.25 -0.25 -0.25 -0.20 -0.25 -0.25 -0.05

- Spread with U.S. * 6 Oct 16 -0.57 -0.51 -0.43 -0.54 -0.52 -0.44 -0.54 -0.48 -0.04Yield on 10-year Gov't Bonds * 6 Oct 16 0.00 120.30 119.98 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.00 0.00 $$ER: E100

- Spread with U.S. * 6 Oct 16 -1.74 118.74 118.35 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -1.38 -1.69 #VALUE!Exchange Rate (U.S.$/Euro) * 6 Oct 16 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.11 1.11 1.14 1.13

(Yen/Euro) * 6 Oct 16 116.00 113.88 113.19 114.79 117.75 123.54 111.90 123.15 134.92(Euro / £ ) * 6 Oct 16 1.13 1.16 1.16 1.17 1.22 1.27 1.18 1.24 1.36

UNITED KINGDOMPrime Rate #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!3-month Treasury Bills (tender) * 6 Oct 16 0.18 0.23 0.21 0.27 0.35 0.41 0.40 0.46 0.46

- Spread with U.S. * 6 Oct 16 -0.14 -0.03 0.03 -0.02 0.07 0.17 0.11 0.23 0.47Yield on 30-year Gov't Bonds * 6 Oct 16 1.58 1.42 1.43 1.46 1.80 2.14 1.62 2.21 2.57

- Spread with U.S. * 6 Oct 16 -0.88 -0.85 -0.93 -0.85 -0.61 -0.48 -0.52 -0.31 -0.37Exchange Rate (U.S.$ / £ ) * 6 Oct 16 1.26 1.30 1.31 1.31 1.37 1.42 1.29 1.41 1.53

STOCK INDICES Monthly Growth (%) Growth Over (%) Since

Past Prev. Month beginning of year

Reference Level Month Month Before 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year ref. prec.

MSCI Eafe * Oct 2016 224 0.9 0.9 8.0 9.9 4.3 5.6 -3.1 -12.3

* Update (1) Not Seasonally Adjusted (2) Compared to same period of the preceeding year, unless otherwise stated Source: Datastream

Annex - Economic tables

Monthly Growth (%)

A7

WEEKLY ECONOMIC WATCH

Spot Price Weekly Growth (%) Annualized Growth (%)

Last Prev. Week For the Last Last

Oct 6 Sept 29 Week Week Before 13 W. 26 W. 52 W. Year

INDICES THOMSON-REUTERS

Total 416.0 418.8 -0.7 -1.8 3.0 -9.8 20.7 3.3 402.8

Energy 434.9 414.6 4.9 1.8 3.2 57.9 99.1 6.4 408.8Grain 276.1 273.2 1.1 -2.1 2.1 -16.8 -8.4 -9.2 304.1Industrials 349.7 353.1 -1.0 -2.7 3.7 11.5 19.4 0.7 347.4Livestock & Meat 269.0 270.0 -0.4 -3.8 -0.7 -61.4 -42.9 -27.6 371.6Precious Metals 797.6 858.8 -7.1 -2.9 3.5 -36.5 11.5 7.0 745.5

PRECIOUS METALS

Gold ($/ounce) 1265.50 1320.85 -4.2 -0.9 0.9 -26.6 4.6 10.7 1143.30(AM fixing London)

Platinum ($/ounce) 976.0 1028.0 -5.1 -1.7 1.2 -34.8 6.7 4.6 933.0(AM fixing London)

Silver ($/ounce) 0.2 0.2 -9.4 -4.5 4.9 -39.5 28.8 10.4 0.2(Handy & Harman)

Palladium ($/ounce troy) 667.0 709.0 -5.9 1.7 6.3 44.8 54.9 -3.9 694.0

OTHER METALS (LME)

Aluminum ($/tonne) 1,670 1,661 0.6 2.1 4.3 10.3 26.6 8.1 1,544

Copper ($/tonne) 4,738 4,825 -1.8 -0.2 1.5 5.6 3.1 -8.0 5,149

Zinc ($/tonne) 2,313 2,354 -1.7 3.0 3.0 49.4 76.5 40.7 1,644

Nickel ($/tonne) 10,205 10,391 -1.8 -2.1 9.9 22.2 49.3 0.7 10,138

Lead ($/tonne) 2,045 2,065 -1.0 6.3 0.0 63.4 45.4 22.7 1,666

Uranium (UxC-Ux U308 Spot $/pound) 22.50 23.75 -5.3 -4.0 -2.4 -48.0 -35.4 -39.2 37.00

OTHER COMMODITIES

Oil WTI ($/barrel) future 50.44 47.83 5.5 3.3 5.5 55.9 83.3 2.0 49.43(NYMEX)

Oil (Spead with WTI $/barrel) 1st future -13.95 -13.95 0.0 -2.8 0.7 -8.2 -11.8 -7.6 -15.10(West Canadian select - CME)

Corn (¢/bushel) 3.1 3.0 4.0 -3.2 1.0 -8.5 -20.5 -15.9 3.7(Illinois #2)

Soy beans (¢/bushel) 9.3 9.2 0.7 -4.4 1.5 -35.2 10.7 8.1 8.6(Illinois #1)

Pork (¢/lb) 92.7 92.7 0.0 0.0 -28.2 -71.5 -55.1 -37.1 147.5

Beef (Cattle feeder index) 130.6 134.0 -2.5 -1.6 2.0 -29.2 -32.2 -28.8 183.4(CME)

Soft Wood Pulp (HWWI) 96 96 0.0 0.0 0.0 -7.6 -3.9 -1.6 97Index 2010 = 100

Natural Gas (mmbtu) 2.99 2.95 1.4 -6.1 6.4 19.5 137.5 22.5 2.44Henry Hub future NYMEX

Lumber 2X4 336 330 1.8 1.4 8.9 34.3 31.2 41.5 238

Iron ore ($/metric ton) 57 57 0.0 0.0 0.9 11.3 8.2 2.7 56

All prices are in US dollars Source: Thomson Reuthers Datastream

Annex - Economic tablesTABLE 6 - COMMODITY PRICES

October 7, 2016

A8

WEEKLY ECONOMIC WATCH

ECONOMICS AND STRATEGY

Montreal Office Toronto Office 514-879-2529 416-869-8598 Stéfane Marion Marc Pinsonneault Warren Lovely Chief Economist & Strategist Senior Economist MD, Public Sector Research and Strategy stefane.marion@nbc.ca marc.pinsonneault@nbc.ca warren.lovely@nbc.ca

Paul-André Pinsonnault Matthieu Arseneau Senior Fixed Income Economist Senior Economist paulandre.pinsonnault@nbc.ca matthieu.arseneau@nbc.ca

Krishen Rangasamy Angelo Katsoras Senior Economist Geopolitical Analyst krishen.rangasamy@nbc.ca angelo.katsoras@nbc.ca

General – National Bank Financial (NBF) is an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of National Bank of Canada. National Bank of Canada is a public company listed on Canadian stock exchanges.

The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. The opinions expressed are based upon our analysis and interpretation of these particulars and are not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein.

Research Analysts – The Research Analyst(s) who prepare these reports certify that their respective report accurately reflects his or her personal opinion and that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views as to the securities or companies.

NBF compensates its Research Analysts from a variety of sources. The Research Department is a cost centre and is funded by the business activities of NBF including, Institutional Equity Sales and Trading, Retail Sales, the correspondent clearing business, and Corporate and Investment Banking. Since the revenues from these businesses vary, the funds for research compensation vary. No one business line has a greater influence than any other for Research Analyst compensation.

Canadian Residents – In respect of the distribution of this report in Canada, NBF accepts responsibility for its contents. To make further inquiry related to this report, Canadian residents should contact their NBF professional representative. To effect any transaction, Canadian residents should contact their NBF Investment advisor.

U.S. Residents – With respect to the distribution of this report in the United States, National Bank of Canada Financial Inc. (NBCFI) is regulated by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) and a member of the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC). This report has been prepared in whole or in part by, research analysts employed by non-US affiliates of NBCFI that are not registered as broker/dealers in the US. These non-US research analysts are not registered as associated persons of NBCFI and are not licensed or qualified as research analysts with FINRA or any other US regulatory authority and, accordingly, may not be subject (among other things) to FINRA restrictions regarding communications by a research analyst with the subject company, public appearances by research analysts and trading securities held a research analyst account.

All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analysts’ personal views regarding any and all of the subject securities or issuers. No part of the analysts’ compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. The analyst responsible for the production of this report certifies that the views expressed herein reflect his or her accurate personal and technical judgment at the moment of publication. Because the views of analysts may differ, members of the National Bank Financial Group may have or may in the future issue reports that are inconsistent with this report, or that reach conclusions different from those in this report. To make further inquiry related to this report, United States residents should contact their NBCFI registered representative.

UK Residents – In respect of the distribution of this report to UK residents, National Bank Financial Inc. has approved the contents (including, where necessary, for the purposes of Section 21(1) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000). National Bank Financial Inc. and/or its parent and/or any companies within or affiliates of the National Bank of Canada group and/or any of their directors, officers and employees may have or may have had interests or long or short positions in, and may at any time make purchases and/or sales as principal or agent, or may act or may have acted as market maker in the relevant investments or related investments discussed in this report, or may act or have acted as investment and/or commercial banker with respect thereto. The value of investments can go down as well as up. Past performance will not necessarily be repeated in the future. The investments contained in this report are not available to retail customers. This report does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for the securities described herein nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever.

This information is only for distribution to Eligible Counterparties and Professional Clients in the United Kingdom within the meaning of the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority. National Bank Financial Inc. is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and has its registered office at 71 Fenchurch Street, London, EC3M 4HD.

National Bank Financial Inc. is not authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and the Financial Conduct Authority to accept deposits in the United Kingdom.

Copyright – This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or further distributed or published or referred to in any manner whatsoever, nor may the information, opinions or conclusions contained in it be referred to without in each case the prior express written consent of National Bank Financial.