October 1,2015 Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter by Riceplus Magazine

8/20/2019 October 1,2015 Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter by Riceplus Magazine

1/14

Page 1 of 14

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-NewsletterContents are published with permission of ORYZA.com

\

Vol 5.Issue X

October 1, 2015

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter


2/14

Page 2 of 14


Cambodian Plans to Expand Jasmine Rice

Exports to U.S.

Oct 01, 2015

Cambodian rice exporters are planning to expand jasmine rice to the U.S. as part of efforts todiversify export markets, according to Khmer Times.

“The EU market has already reached its peak, and there is little room to expand there. But we see

plenty of room for growth in the US market. We need to increase our competitiveness to expandfast,” one of the leading rice exporters was quoted as saying.

However, there are concerns that the U.S. fragrant rice market is dominated by Thai jasmine riceand expanding in such a market would be difficult. Exporters are mainly concerned that the priceof Cambodian jasmine rice is high compared to the Thai jasmine rice due to lack ofcompetitiveness in the rice value chain locally. They say they need to compete on brand, priceand quality to sustain in the U.S. market.


3/14

Page 3 of 14


They are also concerned that they could not market Cambodian jasmine rice internationallydespite it being named as the "World's Best Rice" for three consecutive years.

Experts are calling for the development of a national branding strategy to compete with the Thai jasmine rice in various markets. They told reporters that it is difficult to compete with the

Thailand, which occupies about 22% of world's rice export market. Cambodia's share of theglobal rice market, on the other hand, is just 1.1%.

Cambodia has exported around 369,105 tons of milled rice in the first nine months of 2015, upabout 37% from around 269,370 tons exported during the same period last year. The South-eastAsian nation exported around 370,000 tons of rice worth $247 million in 2014.

China Sets 2016 Low-Tariff Rice Import

Quota at 5.32 Million Tons

Sep 30, 2015

The government of China has set the 2016 low-tariff rice import quota at 5.32 million tons,Reuters quoted the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).

The NDRC has also set quotas for wheat, corn and cotton at 9.636 million tons, 7.2 million tonsand 894,000 tons respectively.

The quota volumes are reportedly same as those of 2015 quotas.

Government of India Rules Out Ban onBasmati Rice Exports

Sep 30, 2015

The government of India has dispelled the rumours that it is considering a proposal to ban basmati rice exports and has clarified that there is no such proposal, according to local sources.

"The Government of India most emphatically clarifies that there is no truth in such rumours andthe Government is not even considering any proposal to ban export of Basmati rice," theCommerce and Industry Ministry was quoted as saying in a statement.

The Ministry also noted that the government is in fact taking measures to explore new marketsand increase basmati rice exports significantly.


4/14

Page 4 of 14


Currently, export of basmati rice is allowed subject to registration of contracts with theAgricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA). Accordingto the statement, the current policy related to basmati rice exports continues without any changes.

Indian basmati rice exporters are struggling with falling prices and low demand since the beginning of this fiscal year in April. A temporary ban by Iran is said to be one of the reasons fortheir plight.

Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged Today

Sep 30, 2015

Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged today.

5% Broken Rice


5/14

Page 5 of 14


Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $345 - $355 per ton, about $15 per ton premium onVietnam 5% rice shown at around $330 - $340 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $355- $365 per ton, about $50 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $305 - $315 perton.

25% Broken Rice

Thailand 25% rice shown at around $330 - $340 per ton, about $15 per ton premium on Vietnam25% rice shown at around $315- $325 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around $315 - $325 per ton, about $30 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $285 - $295 per ton.

Parboiled Rice

Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $345 - $355 per ton. India parboiled rice isindicated at around $340- $350 per ton, about $75 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice waslast shown at around $415 - $425 per ton.

100% Broken Rice

Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, indicated at around $305 - $315 per ton is on par with Vietnam100% broken rice shown at around $305 - $315 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown ataround $300 - $310 per ton, about $25 per ton premium on Pakistan broken sortexed rice shownat around $275 - $285 per ton.

Cambodia Rice Exports Increase Sharply in

First Nine Months of 2015Sep 30, 2015

Cambodia has exported around 369,105 tons of milled rice in the first nine months of 2015, upabout 37% from around 269,370 tons exported during the same period last year, local sourcesquoted data from the Secretariat of One Window Service for Rice Export Formality.

The top three destinations during the eight-month period were China (78,182 tons), France(50,266 tons) and Poland (41,022 tons), according to the official data.

However, Cambodia's rice exports declined month-on-month in September 2015. Cambodiaexported around 26,969 tons of milled rice during the month, down about 10% from around29,819 tons in August 2015. Year on year, Cambodia's rice exports declined about 24% fromaround 35,511 tons exported in September 2014.

Cambodia exported around 370,000 tons of rice worth $247 million in 2014. The government ofCambodia aimed to increase rice exports to one million tons (including official and unofficial


6/14

Page 6 of 14


exports to Thailand and Vietnam) in 2015 but noted that it is unlikely to achieve the target due toinadequate milling facilities and infrastructure as well as lack of access to funding.

USDA estimates Cambodia to export 1.1 million tons of rice (including official and unofficial

exports to Vietnam and Thailand through borders) in 2015, up about 10% from an estimated 1million tons in 2014.

Vietnam 2015 Paddy Rice Output Estimated

to Slightly Increase to 45 Million Tons

Sep 30, 2015

Vietnam's 2015 paddy rice output is estimated at around 45 million tons, up about 0.3% from the previous year, local sources quoted the Ministry of Agriculture.

According to local sources, about 91.2% of the total area under the summer-autumn crop has been completed. Officials are estimating the average yield from the crop to increase to around5.4 tons per hectare from last year's 5.32 tons per hectare due to favourable weather conditions.


7/14

Page 7 of 14


The Mekong Delta region reportedly planted over 612,000 hectares of autumn-winter rice cropthis year, up about 4% from last year. About 20% of the crop is said to be harvested and the yieldfrom the crop is estimated at around 5.43 tons per hectare.

Local sources say the paddy rice output on northern Vietnam is likely to decline by about 1%

due to a 1.3% decline in planting area.

About 53% (or 4.1 million hectares) of Vietnam's 7.7 million hectares rice fields areconcentrated in the Mekong Delta.

Government of Indonesia Plans to Intensify

Rice Market Operations to Curb Price Hikes

Sep 30, 2015

The government of Indonesia has decided to intensify rice market operations in the wake ofincreasing domestic rice prices over the last one month on concerns of low production andstocks, according to local sources. It started rice market operations since last Friday through thewarehouses of state logistics agency Bulog to stabilize prices.


8/14

Page 8 of 14


Price of medium-class rice had reached a high of Rp 10,330 per kilogram (around $699 per ton)in the beginning of this week from around Rp 10,003 per kilogram (around $677 per ton) lastweek. According to the UN's Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), average rice pricesstood at around Rp 10.27 million (around $720) per ton in September, up about 1.3% fromaround Rp 10.14 million (around $740) per ton in August, and up about 15% from their year-ago

levels of around Rp 8.93 million (around $750) per ton.

The officials in the Trade Ministry are confident that the prices can be corrected through ricemarket operations since they have increased by less than 2%.

Meanwhile, the President has assured of adequate rice stocks till the end of this year and hasruled out imports. However, the President and the Vice-President are divided over rice imports.The Vice-president, who said the government would import 1.5 million tons of rice fromVietnam and Thailand due to likely reduction in production, has warned that too low rice stockswould lead to price hikes and social unrest.

Rice stocks with Bulog are at around 1.7 million tons and are likely to increase considering freshstocks from the upcoming harvest. Bulog is presently silent on the matter and has left the riceimports decision to the government. Agricultural experts are advising the government to getexact estimates on production and act appropriately on imports.

Japanese Rice Farmers Protest Against

Likely Increase of U.S. Imports Under TPP

Oct 01, 2015

Japanese rice farmers are protesting against the likely increase in rice imports from the U.S.under the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) deal, according to local sources.

Some 250 farmers from across the country carried out a rally in Tokyo calling on the governmentto adhere to the "Diet" (Japan's bicameral legislature) resolutions, which aim at protecting themajor farm items from foreign competition.

They are urging the government not to expand rice imports as the farmers are already strugglingwith falling rice prices. The protests follow reports that the Japanese government is planning to

allow over 100,000 tons of rice imports from the U.S. But they would be divided between a newcountry-specific tariff-rate quota (TRQ) under the TPP deal and an additional informal allocationof Tokyo's existing WTO TRQ.

Under the TPP deal, Japan is planning to allow 50,000 tons of duty-free rice imports from theU.S. and gradually increase up to 70,000 tons. However, the U.S. has been negotiating with


9/14

Page 9 of 14


Japan to increase its duty-free rice import quota to around 100,000 tons under the TPP andJapan’s disagreement to the same has been stalling the TPP talks for the last few months.

In order to take the TPP talks forward, the Japanese government will reportedly increase importsfrom the U.S. by 2,000 tons from the fourth year of the agreement. In addition to the above,

Japan may agree to informally allocate between 45,000 - 50,000 tons of its annual WTO TRQ,which is currently 682,000 tons (on a milled basis). Currently, Japan imports about 770,000 tonsof rice under the annual minimum market access (MMA) quota according to the World TradeOrganization (WTO) obligations.

The farmers are urging the government to withdraw from the TPP and protect the rice sector.

Global Rice QuotesSeptember 30th, 2015

Long grain white rice - high quality

Thailand 100% B grade 355-365 ↔

Vietnam 5% broken 330-340 ↔

India 5% broken 355-355 ↔

Pakistan 5% broken 305-315 ↔

Myanmar 5% broken 410-420 ↔

Cambodia 5% broken 415-425 ↔

U.S. 4% broken 530-540 ↔

Uruguay 5% broken 535-545 ↔

Argentina 5% broken 530-540 ↔

Long grain white rice - low quality

Thailand 25% broken 330-340 ↔


Pakistan 25% broken 285-295 ↔

Cambodia 25% broken 400-410 ↔

India 25% broken 315-325 ↔


10/14

Page 10 of 14


U.S. 15% broken 500-510 ↔

Long grain parboiled rice

Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 345-355 ↔

Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 415-425 ↔

India parboiled 5% broken stxd 340-350 ↔

U.S. parboiled 4% broken 570-580 ↔

Brazil parboiled 5% broken 545-555 ↔

Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔

Long grain fragrant rice

Thailand Hommali 92% 805-815 ↔

Vietnam Jasmine 450-460 ↔

India basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Cambodia Phka Mails 830-840 ↔

Brokens

Thailand A1 Super 305-315 ↔


Pakistan 100% broken stxd 275-285 ↔

Cambodia A1 Super 355-365 ↔

India 100% broken stxd 300-310 ↔

Egypt medium grain brokens NQ ↔

U.S. pet food 330-340 ↓

Brazil half grain NQ ↔


11/14

Page 11 of 14


All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Flat as Markets Prepare for

Stocks Report from USDA

Sep 30, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for Nov delivery are currently trading 1.5 cent per cwt (about $0.33 per ton) lower at $13.310 per cwt (about $293 per ton) during early floor trading in Chicago. The

other grains are seen trading mixed during morning floor action; soybeans are currently seentrading about 0.6% higher, wheat is listed about 0.2% lower and corn is currently noted 0.4%higher.

U.S. stocks traded sharply higher Wednesday, following global markets higher in an attempt to ease the

pain of the worst quarter in four years. The major averages quickly gained more than 1% in the open,

with the Dow Jones industrial average jumping more than 200 points. The S&P 500 recovered to trade

above the psychologically key 1,900 level. Dow futures were more than 160 points higher, while

European markets traded more than 2% higher. Asian stocks closed broadly higher, with Japan's Nikkei

225 stock index rallying 2.70%.Analysts are watching to see if sharp gains in U.S. stock index futures are

sustained throughout the day. The major U.S. averages are on track for a quarterly loss of more than8.5%.Concerns about spillover from slowdown in China and the timing of a Federal Reserve rate hike

sent markets into correction territory, or more than 10% below their 52-week highs, in late August.

Ahead of Friday'skey nonfarm payrolls data, the September ADP Employment report showed private

companies added 200,000 jobs. Developments in Washington could fall under the spotlight since the

Federal Government runs out of money at midnight – unless Congress and the President approve a new

budget or a continuing resolution. Failure to reach an agreement will result in a government shutdown.

In morning trade, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 228 points, or 1.42%, at 16,276. The S&P 500

traded up 28 points, or 1.5%, at 1,912. The Nasdaq traded up 82 points, or 1.82%, at 4,599. Gold is

currently trading about 1.3% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 0.1% higher, and the U.S. dollar is

currently trading about 0.4% higher at 9:00am Chicago time.


12/14

Page 12 of 14


Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Fall on Lack of Interest; Wheat

and Soy Find Support from Grain StockUpdate

Sep 30, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for Nov delivery settled 12.5 cents per cwt (about $3 per ton) lower at$13.200 per cwt (about $291 per ton). The other grains traded mostly higher today; Soybeansclosed about 0.9% higher at $8.9200 per bushel; wheat finished about 1.8% higher at $5.1275 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 0.3% lower at $3.8775 per bushel.

U.S. stocks traded higher Wednesday, following a rally in global markets in an attempt to easethe pain of the worst quarter in four years. The major averages halved gains in midday trade,holding about 1% higher after rising more than 1.5% in morning trade. In pre-market trade, Dowfutures were more than 160 points higher, while European markets traded more than 2% higher.Asian stocks posted gains, with Japan's Nikkei 225 stock index rallying 2.70%. Soft data inJapan and the euro zone boosted hopes of more stimulus in those regions. Japanese industrial production unexpectedly fell 0.5% in August for the second-straight month of declines,government data showed Wednesday.

For the first time in six months, euro zone prices fell in September from the same period lastyear, according to the European Union's statistics office Eurostat. Analysts also noted support forTuesday's gains from continued signs of improvement in the U.S. labor market. Ahead ofFriday's key nonfarm payrolls data, the September ADP Employment report showed privatecompanies added 200,000 jobs. In afternoon trade, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 145 points, or 0.91%, at 16,195. The S&P 500 traded up 21 points, or 1.13%, at 1,905, withconsumer discretionary leading all 10 sectors higher. The Nasdaq traded up 69 points, or 1.55%,at 4,587. Gold is trading about 1% lower, crude oil is seen trading a touch lower, and the U.S.dollar is seen trading about 0.4% higher about 1:00pm Chicago time.

Tuesday, there were 1,020 contracts traded, up from 385 contracts traded on Monday. Openinterest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Monday increased by 28 contracts to 11,590.

Philippines May Import More Rice if

Needed, Says Economic Planning Secretary


13/14

Page 13 of 14


Sep 30, 2015

The government of the Philippines is prepared to import more rice if needed, Bloomberg quotedthe country's Economic Planning Secretary.

The official noted that the current imports of over 2.3 million tons are sufficient till the secondquarter of 2016.

He told reporters that the government is working on a roadmap to combat the effects of El Nino,which is expected to last till the middle of 2016 and be as intense as that in 1997-98 when thefarm output fell by 23% and prices increased significantly. He also note that government isensuring fiscal space in the budget to lower the impact of extending drought conditions onfarmers and consumers.

He also assured that the government is also working towards averting power shortages to support

farmers during drought.

The official stated that the government may ask farmers who are unable to plant during droughtto help it build farm-to-market roads.

India Average Wholesale Rice Prices Increase

for Second Consecutive Month in September

2015

Sep 30, 2015

India average wholesale rice prices increased in September 2015 for the second consecutivemonth after declining for last two months. The decline can be attributed to concerns of a shortfallin production due to below-average monsoon rains.

Average monthly wholesale rice prices in India increased to around Rs.2,696 per quintal inSeptember 2015, up about 1% from around Rs.2,667.30 per quintal in August 2015, and up about5% from their year-ago levels of around Rs.2,570 per quintal.

In terms of USD per ton, wholesale rice prices in India stand at around $408 per ton (usingcurrent exchange rates) in September 2015, up about 1% from around $404 per ton (usinghistorical exchange rates) in August 2015, and down about 2.6% from around $419 per ton(using historical exchange rates) in September 2014.


14/14

Page 14 of 14


India’s average prices are likely to increase further if India’s production is dampened by

intensifying El Nino weather pattern, which is likely to cause drought conditions in Asia. The

government of India is monitoring the impact of El Nino on monsoon rains in the country, whichare expected to be about 16% below normal during the second half (August-September) of themonsoon season (June-September).

However, below-average rains have so far not affected this year's kharif rice planting operations.Total rice planted area stood at around 37.409 million hectares as of September 24, 2015, slightlyup from around 37.386 million hectares planted during the same time last year.

The government of India has forecasted the 2015-16 kharif (June - December) rice production ataround 90.6 million tons, slightly down from around 90.86 million tons in 2014-15.

October 1,2015 Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter by Riceplus Magazine

Documents

Transcript of October 1,2015 Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter by Riceplus Magazine