October 10, 20021

KEY FACTS ABOUT RAYMOND JAMES LTD.

- Formerly known as Goepel McDermid Inc., became Raymond James Ltd. in January 2001.

- Parent company, NYSE-listed Raymond James Financial, Inc (RJF) ranks as the ninth largest full-service brokerage firm in the U.S., with over C$2.6 billion in revenues.

- Raymond James Financial maintains an established network of 4,800 investment professionals in approximately 2,000 offices worldwide with $120 billion (Cdn) in private client assets under administration.

- Raymond James research has been ranked #1 in the Wall Street Journal’s quarterly performance rankings more than any other firm over the last ten years. The research team includes 46 analysts in the U.S. covering 475 companies, and 17 analysts in Canada, covering 130 companies.

- The Raymond James forest products corporate finance team is a well recognized financial advisor to the forest industry in Canada, with a track record for innovative transactions.

October 10, 20022

Paper & Forest Industry Update:

“The Ugly, the Good, the Bad …”

Mark BishopEquity Research AnalystPaper & Forest Products

Raymond James Ltd.

October 10, 20023

• Industry Overview

• Commodity Review

• B.C. Industry

October 10, 20024

• Too much capacity

• Easy access to capital

• More global fibre looking for a home

“The Ugly”

October 10, 20025

Performance during the late 1990’s was not impressive.

TSE P&FP vs. TSE 300 & S&P P&FP vs. S&P500 Relative Strength Index

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

Jan-

90

Jan-

91

Jan-

92

Jan-

93

Jan-

94

Jan-

95

Jan-

96

Jan-

97

Jan-

98

Jan-

99

Jan-

00

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

TSE PFP / TSE 300 S&P PFP / S&P500

October 10, 20026

Declining “need” to invest in the sector

P&FP Relative Weight of TSE 300 Composite

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

Dec-95

Dec-96

Dec-97

Dec-98

Dec-99

Dec-00

Dec-01

Aug-0

2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Weight (left axis) Member Companies

October 10, 20027

“The Good”

•Capacity closures

•Capital spending restraint

•Market discipline

October 10, 20028

Capacity closures

% NA Closure % Leader

Segment 2001/2000 Capacity Leader Capacity

Market Pulp 000 mt 600 3% IP 18%

Newsprint 000 mt 920 5% Abitibi 16%

Groundwood Papers 000 mt 260 4% Abitibi 12%

Uncoated Freesheet 000 st 2450 14% IP 21%

Containerboard 000 st 2800 5% IP 18%

Lumber Mmfbm 2800 4% IP 12%

Plywood Msf 2150 10% GP 11%

…. but how permanent?

October 10, 20029

Capital spending restraint

Capital Expenditures / Depreciation

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

US Canada EUR

October 10, 200210

Capital spending restraint

Avg. AnnualCapacity Change Capacity Change

Commodity 2001/2000 2002-2004

Newsprint -5.6% -1.5%

Uncoated groundwood -8.0% 4.5%

Uncoated freesheet -4.7% -0.8%

Coated groundwood 2.0% 3.9%

Coated freesheet 0.0% 0.4%

Market pulp 1.3% 0.0%

Containerboard 0.0% 0.1%

Total -1.3% 0.4%

AF&PA U.S. Capacity Forecast

• Lowest growth rate ever recorded

October 10, 200211

Market discipline…

US Newsprint (east) Prices vs. N.A. Operating Rates

60

70

80

90

100

110

Jan-

99

Apr

-99

Jul-9

9

Oct

-99

Jan-

00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0

Oct

-00

Jan-

01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1

Oct

-01

Jan-

02

% C

apac

ity

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

US

$/m

t

NA Op Rate US Newsprint (right axis)

October 10, 200212

… historic low inventories

North American Newsprint Total Inventories vs. Price

1,500

2,000

99 00 01 02

000'

s m

t

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

US

$/m

t

Total Newsprint Inventory Std. News Price

Source: Pulp & Paper Products Council, Pulp and Paper Week

October 10, 200213

Recent weaker U.S. currency has helped NA industry

NBSK Pulp Pricing - US$ vs. euros

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02

Jan

. 200

0=1.

00

U.S.$/mt euro/mt

October 10, 200214

Recent relative performance more encouraging

Relative Performance of TSX300 and TSX Paper & Forest Indexes

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

Dec

-00

Jan-

01

Feb

-01

Mar

-01

Apr

-01

May

-01

Jun-

01

Jul-0

1

Aug

-01

Sep

-01

Oct

-01

Nov

-01

Dec

-01

Jan-

02

Feb

-02

Mar

-02

Apr

-02

May

-02

Jun-

02

Jul-0

2

Aug

-02

Sep

-02

Dec

. 20

00=

1.00

TSX 300 TSX P&FP

Start of U.S. Recession (NBER)

October 10, 200215

Consolidation continues …

Market Share of Top Five Producers in North America

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Lumber

Pulp

Containerboard

Newsprint

OSB

Uncoated Freesheet

Tissue

1995 2002

Tissue top 5 producersGeorgia Pacific 35%Kimberly Clark 16%Proctor & Gamble 15%SCA 5%Cascades 4%

75%

UFS top 5 producersInternational Paper 23%Weyerhaeuser 17%Domtar 15%Boise Cascade 10%Georgia Pacific 9%

74%

OSB top 5 producersLouisiana Pacific 26%Weyerhaeuser 17%Nexfor 13%Georgia Pacific 8%Grant 7%

71%

Newsprint top 5 producersAbitibi 29%Bowater 22%Kruger 6%NorskeCanada 5%SP Newsprint 5%

67%

Containerboard top 5 producersSmurfit-Stone 18%Weyerhaeuser 15%International Paper 12%Georgia Pacific 10%Temple-Inland 6%

61%

Market Pulp top 5 producersWeyerhaeuser 12%International Paper 11%Georgia Pacific 10%Tembec 7%Parsons & Whitmore 6%

45%

Lumber top 5 producersWeyerhaeuser 10%International Paper 5%Canfor 4%Georgia Pacific 3%West Fraser 3%

26%

October 10, 200216

Market Share vs. Price Volatility

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0%

Average Quarterly Price Change (Abs %, 1992-2001)

1995

-200

1 A

vera

ge

Cap

acit

y S

har

e o

f T

op

5 P

rod

uce

rs

Tissue

New sprintCoated freesheet

Coated groundw ood

Uncoated freesheet

LinerboardMarket pulp

Lum ber

… and may lead to more stable pricing.

October 10, 200217

Bigger isn’t necessarily better …

Select Paper & Forest Products CompaniesMarket Capitallization v. Return on Capital

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0%

5 Year Average (1997-2001) Return on Capital (%)

Cur

rent

Mar

ket C

ap (C

$ M

ln.)

October 10, 200218

… but customers are also consolidating.

Market Share of Top Five in North America

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0%

Printers

Homebuilders

Publishers

Home ImprovementRetailers

2002

Top 5 Home Improvement Retailers Home Depot 30%Lowes 12%Menard 3%Carolina Holdings 2%84 Lumber 1%

49%Top 5 Publishers Gannett 10%Tribune 7%Knight Ridder 5%New York Times 5%Dow Jones 2%

28%Top 5 HomebuildersKB Home 3%Lennar 3%Pulte 3%Centex 3%D.R. Horton 2%

13%Top 5 Printers Quebecor World 4%R.R. Donnelley 3%Mail-Well, Inc. 1%Moore Corp. 1%Vertis 1%

11%

October 10, 200219

Consolidation will continue

Drivers:•Customer consolidation•Globalization•Buy vs. build

Benefits:•Inventory management •Best practices•Product rationalization•Pricing stabilization

October 10, 200220

“The Bad”

• tech meltdown, global geopolitical concerns & corporate misconduct has significantly reduced confidence in capital markets

• print advertising recovery is not materializing

• resolution of the US/Cdn lumber trade dispute remote

• supply discipline may be faltering

October 10, 200221

Commodity Review

Typical economic recovery, inventory and supply conditions aside, drives demand in paper and forest products commodities through the following sequence:

1. Building materials – Lumber & panels interest rate sensitive, consumer led

2. Packaging - Containerboard with initial pickup in industrial economy & manufacturing activity

3. Communication papers - Uncoated freesheet (UFS) increasing demand for business papers first e.g., UFS increasing demand for magazine & advertising follows e.g., coated paper resulting increase in pulp demand

4. Publishing papers - Newsprint largely driven by retail kicks in with increasing consumer confidence as a result of improved

industrial activity – i.e., job growth

October 10, 200222

Commodity Review

Current and Trough - Peak Commodity Cycle Pricing

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400N

ew

spri

nt

40

lb C

GW

NB

SK

Pu

lp

WS

PF

Lu

mb

er

CS

P P

lyw

oo

d

NC

OS

B

50

lb U

FS

42

lb L

ine

rbrd

US

$/u

nit

October 10, 200223

Lumber

WSPF 2x4 Lumber Prices and Supply Shocks

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

current $ constant $* Linear (constant $*)

Lumber I Lumber II

Lumber III

SLA (Export Quota)

Source: Random Lengths, RJ Research estimates and analysis

US$/mfbm

US PNW Spotted Owl Lumber IV

*US PPI price deflator

October 10, 200224

Lumber

WSPF 2x4 Lumber vs. 30 yr. Mortgage Rate

100

200

300

400

500

600

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

US

$/m

fbm

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

Western SPF 2x4 KD 30 yr. mortgage rates (%)

forecast

Source: Random Lengths , Freddie Mac

October 10, 200225

Lumber

• 27% cash duties in place since May 22

• Canadian industry responds with higher operating rates to reduce unit costs

• Preliminary WTO “win” for Canada in July

• Next key ruling in Feb. 2003 – NAFTA

• Curtailments now on the increase

October 10, 200226

B.C. Public Lumber Companies - Recent and Potential Duty Liability

Total Accruals Prospective Estimated To 1Q02 (Pre-tax) Duty Rate (%) 2003 Duty

Company ($mln) (%) ($mln)

Riverside 16.0 27.2% 53.0Slocan 34.2 26.5% 122.0Canfor 61.2 24.8% 226.0Interfor 15.7 27.2% 42.0West Fraser 26.8 21.0% 144.0Doman 13.7 27.2% 76.0

Source: Company Data, RJ estimates & analysis

Lumber

October 10, 200227

Lumber

Lumber Leverage Per $1000 Invested

$-

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

Rive

rside

Sloc

an

Can

for

Lo

uisia

nna

Pacific

Tem

bec

Pop

e & T

albot

Wes

t Fra

ser

Geo

rgia

Pac

ific

Nex

for

Abit

ibi-C

onso

lidat

ed

Dom

tar

Bow

ater

Wey

erha

euse

r

Int

erna

tiona

l Pap

er

Ray

onier

Lev

erag

e to

10%

Ch

ang

e in

Lu

mb

er P

rice

Source: RJ Research estimates & analysis

October 10, 200228

Market pulp

Shipment to Inventory Ratio (S/I, -3 mos ave) vs. NBSK list price

Source: PPPC, Pulp and Paper Week; RJ Research, estimates and analysis

0.50

1.00

1.50

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

S/I

rat

io

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

Pul

p P

rice

$US

S/I Ratio Price $US

forecast

October 10, 200229

Market pulp

Pulp Leverage Per $1000 Invested

Source: RJ Research estinates & analysis

$-

$10.00

$20.00

$30.00

$40.00

$50.00

$60.00

$70.00

$80.00

Tem

bec

Pop

e & T

albot

Can

for

Sloc

an

Ara

cruz

Ray

onier

Geo

rgia

Pac

ific

Norsk

eCan

ada

Nex

for

Bow

ater

Wes

t Fra

ser

Dom

tar

Sm

urfit-

Stone

Wey

erha

euse

r

Int

erna

tiona

l Pap

er

Abit

ibi-C

onso

lidat

ed

Lev

erag

e to

10%

Ch

ang

e in

Pu

lp P

rice

October 10, 200230

Newsprint

Forecast Total Newsprint Consumption

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

3,400

3,600

3,800

4,000

Total Advertising Expense Real US GDP ($B) Total Newsprint Consumption (right axis)

Regression Equation:(US Newsprint Consumption)=(US Total Newsprint Ad. Expense) + (US Real GDP)R²=0.92

Forecast

October 10, 200231

Newsprint

N.A. 3 Month Yr./Yr. Newsprint Mill Inventory Change vs. Price

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

000s

of

Tonnes

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

Price

($U

S-D

el E

east

NA

)

Yr./Yr. Inventory Change (3 mos. MA) Price

forecast

Source: Pulp and Paper Products Council, RJ Research estimates and analysis

October 10, 200232

Newsprint

Newsprint/Groundwood Leverage Per $1000 Invested

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

Norsk

eCan

ada

Abitib

i-Con

s

Bowat

er

Tembe

c

Nexfo

r

Wes

t Fra

ser

Smur

fit-Sto

ne

Wey

erha

euse

r

Inte

rnat

ional

Paper

Lev

erag

e to

10%

Ch

ang

e in

New

s/G

wd

Pri

ce

Source: RJ Research estimates & analysis

October 10, 200233

Summary - Valuation

Price to Book Value: Current vs Historical Range

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5N

orsk

eC

anad

a

Ab

itib

i-C

on

*

Te

mbe

c

Po

pe &

Tal

bot

Can

for

Slo

can

Inte

rfor

Riv

ers

ide

Ain

swo

rth

We

st F

rase

r

Nex

for

Dom

tar

Tim

ber

We

st

PR

T

Uni

vers

eA

vera

ge

P/B

V

Newsprint

Pulp/Lumber Lumber/Panel

Integrated

Trust

Cycle High Current Cycle Low

October 10, 200234

Summary - Valuation

EV/EBITDA: 2003E vs Historical (LTM) Range

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Nor

skeC

anad

a

Abi

tibi-C

on

Tem

bec

Pop

e &

Tal

bot

Can

for

Slo

can

Inte

rfor

Riv

ersi

de

Ain

swor

th

Wes

t Fra

ser

Nex

for

Dom

tar

Tim

berW

est

PR

T

Uni

vers

eA

vera

ge

EV

/EB

ITD

A

Newsprint

Pulp/LumberLumber/Panel

IntegratedTrust

Cycle High 03E Cycle Low

October 10, 200235

Canadian P&FP Share Price Performance

LTM ReturnOct. 5, 2001 - Oct. 4, 2002

CAS*TBC

DTCNFRFP

TWF.UNTSX P&F

APRT.UNWFTIFP.A

NSPOP

CFPTSX Comp

DOM.BS&P P&F

SFFS&P 500

ANS

-50% -25% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 125%

YTD ReturnDec. 31, 2001 - Oct. 4, 2002

CAS*NF

TBCTWF.UN

RFPPRT.UN

TSX P&FDTC

IFP.AA

SFFWFTCFP

POPNS

TSX CompANS

S&P 500S&P P&F

DOM.B

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

October 10, 200236

Share Prices: 52-Week Low to Target vs Current

Note * POP-N expressed in US$

$-

$5

$10

$15

$20N

orsk

eCan

ada

Abi

tibi-C

on

Tem

bec

Pop

e &

Tal

bot*

Can

for

Slo

can

Inte

rfor

Riv

ersi

de

Ain

swor

th

Nex

for

Dom

tar

Tim

berW

est

PR

T

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

We

st F

rase

r

Target Current 52 Week Low

Canadian P&FP Share Price Performance

October 10, 200237

B.C. Industry EPS Forecast

P/TBV Net Int.

Company Symbol 01A 02E 03E Debt Cover.

Newsprint NorskeCanada NS-T 0.37 (0.46) 0.55 0.8 41% 1.5 Pulp/Lumber Pope & Talbot (US$) POP-N (1.64) (1.20) 0.65 0.9 57% 1.3 Canfor CFP-T (0.01) 0.57 0.52 0.7 39% 4.3 Doman DOM.B-T (3.38) (1.74) (2.89) (0.0) 138% 0.1 Lumber/Panel Slocan SFF-T (0.36) 0.30 0.18 1.1 52% 3.1 Interfor IFP.A-T (0.15) 0.40 0.30 0.5 14% 17.1 Riverside¹ RFP-T 0.48 0.78 0.06 0.5 20% 5.8 Ainsworth ANS-T (1.55) (0.26) 0.75 0.4 81% 1.5 Integrateds West Fraser WFT-T 2.85 3.07 3.48 0.8 18% 9.8 Income Trust² TimberWest TWF.UN-T 1.29 1.22 1.30 0.9 21% 6.2 PRT PRT.UN-T 1.01 0.98 1.06 1.1 2% 13.5

Average3,4,5 0.7 29% 6.4

EPS

October 10, 200238

October 10, 200239

B.C. Industry

• government committed to forest policy change

• policy change remains tied to trade file

• expect policy change will occur on B.C. coast at accelerated pace – Fall 2002

• labour environment appears to be improving

• consolidation likely as visibility on U.S. market access improves