Oceans Day, UNFCCC COP21, Paris 2015 · Adapted from Gattuso et al. (2015, Science) Moderate Low...

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Setting the Stage: What does the science tell us? Dr Carol Turley OBE Oceans Day, UNFCCC COP21, Paris 2015

Transcript of Oceans Day, UNFCCC COP21, Paris 2015 · Adapted from Gattuso et al. (2015, Science) Moderate Low...

Page 1: Oceans Day, UNFCCC COP21, Paris 2015 · Adapted from Gattuso et al. (2015, Science) Moderate Low Carbon Emissions High Veryhigh High Carbon Emissions . Reducing CO emissions will

Setting the Stage: What does the science tell us?

Dr Carol Turley OBE

Oceans Day, UNFCCC COP21, Paris 2015

Page 2: Oceans Day, UNFCCC COP21, Paris 2015 · Adapted from Gattuso et al. (2015, Science) Moderate Low Carbon Emissions High Veryhigh High Carbon Emissions . Reducing CO emissions will

The ocean is absorbing nearly all the heat from global warming:

…..causing it to warm

IPCC AR5 2014

93% of heat

Ocean warming

Page 3: Oceans Day, UNFCCC COP21, Paris 2015 · Adapted from Gattuso et al. (2015, Science) Moderate Low Carbon Emissions High Veryhigh High Carbon Emissions . Reducing CO emissions will

Ocean oxygen concentrations are decreasing:…due to warming waters increasing stratification

… dead zones with low oxygen will increase

IPCC AR5 2014

Page 4: Oceans Day, UNFCCC COP21, Paris 2015 · Adapted from Gattuso et al. (2015, Science) Moderate Low Carbon Emissions High Veryhigh High Carbon Emissions . Reducing CO emissions will

The ocean receives all the water from melting ice:

…. along with thermal expansion, resulting in sea level rise

Image credit: UKOA, Sea Surface Consortium

100% of water

Sea level rise

Page 5: Oceans Day, UNFCCC COP21, Paris 2015 · Adapted from Gattuso et al. (2015, Science) Moderate Low Carbon Emissions High Veryhigh High Carbon Emissions . Reducing CO emissions will

The ocean takes up 28% of carbon dioxide emissions:

…. reducing atmospheric warming but causing ocean acidification

28% of CO2

Ocean Acidification

Page 6: Oceans Day, UNFCCC COP21, Paris 2015 · Adapted from Gattuso et al. (2015, Science) Moderate Low Carbon Emissions High Veryhigh High Carbon Emissions . Reducing CO emissions will

These stressors are happening at the same time increasing risk to the ocean

Page 7: Oceans Day, UNFCCC COP21, Paris 2015 · Adapted from Gattuso et al. (2015, Science) Moderate Low Carbon Emissions High Veryhigh High Carbon Emissions . Reducing CO emissions will
Page 8: Oceans Day, UNFCCC COP21, Paris 2015 · Adapted from Gattuso et al. (2015, Science) Moderate Low Carbon Emissions High Veryhigh High Carbon Emissions . Reducing CO emissions will
Page 9: Oceans Day, UNFCCC COP21, Paris 2015 · Adapted from Gattuso et al. (2015, Science) Moderate Low Carbon Emissions High Veryhigh High Carbon Emissions . Reducing CO emissions will

2oC Limit

The ocean will change but reducing CO2 emissions will make a difference:

Page 10: Oceans Day, UNFCCC COP21, Paris 2015 · Adapted from Gattuso et al. (2015, Science) Moderate Low Carbon Emissions High Veryhigh High Carbon Emissions . Reducing CO emissions will

Opportunity to reduce the risk - Thank [email protected]