Oceanography: Future Science QuestionsOceanography: Future Science Questionsand Research Opportunitiesand Research Opportunitiesand Research Opportunitiesand Research Opportunities

James W MurrayJames W MurrayJames W. MurrayJames W. MurraySchool of OceanographySchool of OceanographyUniversity of WashingtonUniversity of Washington

Siesta Valley Syncline

Stratiographic ColumnBald Peak (TB) – Dark Green (Plio.)( ) ( )

Basalt-PorphyriteSiesta (TS) – Yellow (Plio.)

Clays, mudstones, SandstoneLapilli Lens (TSV)Freshwater LimestoneFreshwater Limestone

Grizzly Peak (TGP) – Green (Plio.)Andesite, Rhyolitic Tuff

Orinda (TO) – Red (Mio.)Sandstone, Conglomerate

Claremont (TC) – Purple (Mio.)Chert, Shale

as it appeared in Spring 1966as it appeared in Spring 1966Geol 5 w/ Dr. Curtis

Main US Programs in Oceanography

f D l ll f M dUniversity of Delaware College of Marine StudiesUniversity of Hawaii (SOEST)

Florida TechFlorida State University (FSU)Florida State University (FSU)

Humboldt State UniversityLamont-Doherty Earth Observatory

University of Miami (Rosenstiel School )Old D i i U i itOld Dominion UniversityOregon State University

Scripps Institute of Oceanography (UCSD)University of Rhode IslandyUniversity of South Florida

Texas A&M UniversityUniversity of Washington (UW)

University of TexasUniversity of TexasUniversity of Southern California

UC Santa CruzMIT/WHOI Joint Program

Programs subdivided into disciplines of physical, chemical, biological and geological oceanography

In most programs grad students are fully supported (stipends and tuition)

In addition apply for NSF and NDSEQ Graduate Fellowships

Students are evaluated and accepted based on their strength in core disciplines, GPA, GRE and Letters.

Research experience is invaluable, and many options are available. Here at Cal there must be many opportunities plus NSF supported REU programsall around the US

OutlineOutl ne

1. The Fourth Assessment Reportof the IPCC (AR4)Climate Change is occurring

2 T t ↑ O W i2. Temperature ↑, Ocean Warming3. CO2 ↑, Ocean Acidification

We need to study the impacts of both

temperature and high CO2 on the p g 2

processes that affect ecosystem

responses under natural conditions.

Framing the Questions for the Future

We Learn the Most When Systems are perturbed!

Examples:

Natural / Anthropogenic ForcingGlacial/InterglacialGlacial/InterglacialEl Nino / La NinaAnthropogenic GHG ProductionOcean WarmingOcean Acidification

Artificial ForcingFe Fertilization ExperimentsOcean Acidification Mesocosm Experiments

Antarctic Ice Core Record

Global Climate Change Processes are Real

“It is very likely that [man-made] increases in greenhouse gases have

8002100

•Man-Made Greenhouse gases (CO2,CH4,N2O)•Increased global temperatures •Sea level rise

g gcaused most of the average temperature increase since the mid-20 century”

IPPC 4th Assessment Report5502050

•Loss of sea ice•Loss of biodiversity•Ocean acidification

F k l d is P

- IPPC 4th Assessment Report

20C)

400

v) Foreknowledge is PowerFor policy creation and mitigation Complex earth systems require predictive models

20

15

10

chan

ge (°

C

CO2 concentration

atio

n (p

pmv

Predictive models require…•Process identification•Parameterization•Testing and verification

5

0

-5

mpe

ratu

re

Temperature change (°C)

200

Conc

entr

ag

-10450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

Thousands of years BP (before present)

Tem Temperature change ( C)

CO20

Pleistocene

Cause and effect..

Greenhouse Gases andGreenhouse Gases andWarming

COCO2

Related?

9

10Actual emissions: CDIACActual emissions: EIA450ppm stabilisationCO emissions IPCC Scenarios

8

650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2

CO2 emissions (GtC/y)

6

7A2 B1 B2

1990 201020005

1990 2010

time (y)

2000

Raupach et al. in press PNAS

Are we on track? Recent emissions have been greater than before.

Verification

Geophysics is not p yan experimentalscience!

We have to use models.

M d ls p di tModels predictrecent increasein Global T well.

Prediction

Models for the future depend on CO2 production p pscenarios.A series of future worlds“Story Lines”

For Business as UsualT = + 3 to 5°C by 2100

2°C Target 2°C is considered thetipping point for intolerablehuman impactsp

Even if emissions werecompletely halted todayT = +1.5°C

Spatial Patterns

W i ill b l t Warming will be largest over landand at high latitudes

Framing the Problem: Climate in a World f M lti l Stof Multiple Stresses

• Increasing surface & sub-surface heat in the gworld ocean.

• Large scale changes in ocean chemistry (Feely l 2004 S bi l 2004)et al., 2004; Sabine et al. 2004).

• Global overfishing--”Fishing down the food chain” (Pauly 2003)chain , (Pauly, 2003).

• Land-based pollution of the coastal ocean (GESAMP, 2001).(G S , 00 )

• Proliferation of invasive species

First Stress

Ocean Warming

Most Heat in the Ocean

Levitus et al. 2005. X 1022 J

Change in oceanic heat content (IPCC-2007)

∆T 0 10oC

0-700 m

∆T = 0.10oC

0 700 m

1961-2003

larger rate

1955 2005

g1993-2003

0.5 W m-2

based on Levitus (2005), Ishii et al., (2006); Willis et al. (2004)

1961-2003: Rate of 3.3 x 1021 J yr-1 = 0.2 W m-2 (earth’s surface)

World Ocean Warming (°C) 1900 to 2000

Observed: matches model hindcasts very well

Between 1955 – 1998, world ocean heat content between 0 – 3000 m depth increased 14 5 x 1022 J increased 14.5 x 10 J = mean Temp increase of 0.037° C at rate of 0.20 Wm- 2. Levitus et al., 2005 Barnett et al., 2001

Good News – so far

No evidence for trends in ocean circulation:• no coherent evidence for a trend in the strength of theno coherent evidence for a trend in the strength of the Meridional Overturning Circulation

• no evidence for a systematic trend in volume transport of the A t ti Ci l C tAntarctic Circumpolar Current

• growing evidence for changes i Antarctic Bottom Waters

• evidence for regional variability associated with NAO PDO and• evidence for regional variability associated with NAO, PDO and SAM

Willebrand, Bindoff et al. in press IPCC-2007

Retreat of the South Cascades Glacier

• Also: reduction of so educt o owinter snowpack and reduces freshwater supplysupply

1950s

Source: USGS ca. 2005

present

Surface Melt on Greenland

Melt descending into a moulin into a moulin, a vertical shaftcarrying water to ice sheet base.

Source: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK)University of Manchester (UK)

Change in oceanic global sea level

Rates of sea level rise (mm yr-1)

1961-2003: 1.8 ± 0.51993-2003: 3.1 ± 0.7

Due to thermal expansionDue to thermal expansion(25%) AndMelting of continental ice

Willebrand, Bindoff et al. in press IPCC-2007

A Serious Concern

Decline in Arctic Sea Ice

2003200319791979979979

Sea ice Sea ice Sea ice Sea ice extent in extent in

the Arcticthe Arctic--past past past, past,

current, current, and futureand future

20102010--20302030 20402040--20602060

Sarmiento et al (2004) GBCImpacts on ocean ecosystems – global view

Ocean Warming will lead to contraction and expansion of different biomes.By 2050 - in Northern HemisphereMarginal ice (-42%)Subpolar Gyre (+16%) vertical stratification increasesSubpolar Gyre (+16%) vertical stratification increasesSubtropical gyre (+4.0%) * decrease nutrient supply

* increase in growing season

Temperature is arguably the key variable for the success of

Impacts on ocean ecosystems – local view

Temperature is arguably the key variable for the success of ‘northern’ fish stocks like cod

Second Stress

Ocean Acidification

Atm CO2

Global fossil fuel CO2 emissions with division into portions that remain airborne or are soaked up by the ocean and land.

xsCO2 in the ocean today!

T t l Total anthropogenic CO2Distributions.

Global Average Depth of 5 µmol Depth of 5 µmol kg-1 contour is ~800 m

Predictions of Ocean Acidificationand the effects on coral reef calcification

Coral ReefCoral Reefcalcification• 1765 Adequate• 2000 Marginalg• 2100 Low

Calcification rates in the tropics may in the tropics may decrease by 30% over the next century

After Feely et al (in press) with Modeled Saturation Levels from Orr et al (2005)

Coastal ResultsDepth of the 

Aragonite Saturation H i

Ω = 1 = [Ca+2][CO3‐2]/K’sp

Horizon

Estimate that anthropogenic CO h l d i h liCO2 has resulted in a shoaling of the aragonite saturation horizon by 50m on line 5.

Feely et al., 2008Feely et al (2008)

Oh OhChemistry!y

Ocean Acidification

OHCO 22 32COH 3HCOH 323 HCOCOH 32

232 2HCOOHCOCO

pHpH

CO32-

Wolf-Gladrow et al., 1999

CO2(aq)

Wolf Gladrow et al., 1999

Provided by Dwight Gledhill

Ocean Acidification

CO2 + CO32- + H2O 2HCO3

-

Saturation State = phase [Ca2+] [CO3

2-]K*sp, phase

calcium +calcium + carbonatecarbonate calcium calcium precipitation equilibrium

Ca2+ + CO32- CaCO3

carbonatecarbonate

q dissolution

Photos courtesy Katie Fagan

Calcifying marine organisms and calcium carbonate phases

Coccolithophores Forams

p

Coccolithophorescalcite

Foramscalcite

T. Tyrrel

Calcareous algae CoralsgHigh-Mg calcite

aragonite

Nancy Sefton NOAA

Potential Effects on Open Ocean Food Websp

uCO

D@

ims.

uaf.

edu

Coccolithophores

ARC

Copepods

Barrie Kovish

k F b

Pacific SalmonVicki Fabry

Pteropods

Mesocosm experiment, BergenPelagic Ecosystem CO2 Enrichment Study

% • 190 ppmV

Three pCO2 treatments representing: Glacial Present and Year 2100

CO2 Regulation

95% PARpp

• 370 ppmV• 700 ppmV

Glacial, Present, and Year 2100

190

S=31.3S=29.8

5m190370 700

pump

5m

pCO2 (ppmv)10m

S=31 3

Sediment Trap

Large Scale Mesocosm Facility, University of Bergen, Norway

S 31.3

from U. Riebesell & B. Rost

Conclusions

We need to study the impacts of both temperature and high CO2 on the processes that affect ecosystem responses under natural conditions.

Ocean acidification and Ocean warming are growing problems

Highly productive marine ecosystems such as coral reefs and the Bering Sea are especially sensitive to these changes

Studies and monitoring (both satellite and in situ) are needed Studies and monitoring (both satellite and in situ) are needed now to identify impacts

Ocean acidification makes it critical that we combat stressors that we can address now

A Final Couple of Points

Models are incomplete…Feedbacks are not included

8)

Example:

nto

et a

l. (1

998

Effect ofWarming on Ocean uptake

Sar

mie

npof CO2

MAGNITUDE OF FEEDBACKSarmiento et al. (1998)1990-2065

Matear and Hirst (1999)1850-2100

Joos et al. (1999)1765-2100

Warming (nat. CO2) -11% -12% -13%gCirculation (ant CO2) -22% -10% -3%

-33% -16%-22%

Monsters Behind the DoorMonsters Behind the Door

• Ocean Circulation• HurricanesHurricanes• Sahel Drought• Ice Sheets• Ice Sheets

“When I think about the climate crisis today I can imagine a time in the future when our children and grandchildren a time in the future when our children and grandchildren ask us one of two questions. Either they will ask: What were you thinking, didn’t you care about our future? Or they will ask: How did you find the moral courage to cross they will ask: How did you find the moral courage to cross party lines and solve this crisis? We must hear their questions now. We must answer them with our actions, not merely with our promises.

We must choose a future for which our children and We must choose a future for which our children and grandchildren will thank us.”

Testimony of the Honorable Al Gore-Testimony of the Honorable Al GoreBefore the U.S. House of Representatives

Energy & Commerce CommitteeSubcommittee on Energy & Air Quality

and theScience & Technology CommitteeScience & Technology Committee

Subcommittee on Energy & Environment

March 21, 2007

The EndThe End