Ocean - Proshutinsky/Haidvogel (CG Left Bay) What science questions exist for the arctic that are...
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Transcript of Ocean - Proshutinsky/Haidvogel (CG Left Bay) What science questions exist for the arctic that are...
Ocean - Proshutinsky/Haidvogel (CG Left Bay)
• What science questions exist for the arctic that are best answered with coupled regional models?
o process studies (see next slide; also polyna studies)
o reconstruction studies based upon control scenarios (e.g., ensemble of runs with a range of AO forcing, …)
o sensitivity studies (e.g., ecosystem response to melting ice, …)
o coupled response studies (e.g., coastal erosion, …)
o observational design studies (AON)
o model improvement studies
Wind- and Wind- and convection-convection-
drivendrivenmixing mixing
Wind- and Wind- and convection-convection-
drivendrivenmixing mixing
Heat contentHeat contentvariability variability and role of and role of
differentdifferentfactorsfactors
Heat contentHeat contentvariability variability and role of and role of
differentdifferentfactorsfactors
FreshwaterFreshwatercontentcontent
variability andvariability androle of differentrole of different
factorsfactors
FreshwaterFreshwatercontentcontent
variability andvariability androle of differentrole of different
factorsfactors
Reconstruction Reconstruction of hydrography of hydrography and circulationand circulation
based on based on modeling with modeling with
data data assimilationassimilation
Reconstruction Reconstruction of hydrography of hydrography and circulationand circulation
based on based on modeling with modeling with
data data assimilationassimilation
Atlantic water Atlantic water circulationcirculation
origin, origin, variability , variability , sense of sense of rotationrotation
Atlantic water Atlantic water circulationcirculation
origin, origin, variability , variability , sense of sense of rotationrotation
Investigation of Investigation of sea level rise: sea level rise: its rate, role of its rate, role of different factors,different factors,
model errorsmodel errors
Investigation of Investigation of sea level rise: sea level rise: its rate, role of its rate, role of different factors,different factors,
model errorsmodel errors
Process studies: ocean/ice
AtmosphericAtmosphericboundary layer boundary layer specifically for specifically for
stable stable stratification stratification
AtmosphericAtmosphericboundary layer boundary layer specifically for specifically for
stable stable stratification stratification
Atmosphere-ice-Atmosphere-ice-OceanOcean
interactionsinteractions
Atmosphere-ice-Atmosphere-ice-OceanOcean
interactionsinteractions
Atmosphere-Atmosphere-LandLand
interactionsinteractions
Atmosphere-Atmosphere-LandLand
interactionsinteractions
High resolutionHigh resolutionregional regional
atmosphericatmosphericreanalysisreanalysis
High resolutionHigh resolutionregional regional
atmosphericatmosphericreanalysisreanalysis
TroposphereTroposphereprocesses andprocesses and
Ozone roleOzone role
TroposphereTroposphereprocesses andprocesses and
Ozone roleOzone role
Turbulence Turbulence parameterizationparameterization
Turbulence Turbulence parameterizationparameterization
AtmosphereProcess studies: atmosphere
ModelModel improvements improvements
Restoring andRestoring andFlux correctionFlux correction
Atmospheric loadingAtmospheric loading
Vertical and lateralVertical and lateralmixing mixing
Tidal ocean & iceTidal ocean & iceeffectseffects
Bering Strait Inflow Bering Strait Inflow and river runoffand river runoff
Neptune effectNeptune effect
New advection New advection schemesschemes
Data assimilationassimilationtechnology
Vertical and Vertical and lateral resolutionlateral resolution
Forcing biasesForcing biases
Land-fast iceLand-fast ice
AOMIP/OCEAN/ICE
ModelModel improvements improvements
Cloud propertiesCloud properties
Arctic Haze and climatic Arctic Haze and climatic
effects of aerosolseffects of aerosols
Troposphere aerosols, Troposphere aerosols, clouds, water vaporclouds, water vapor
Precipitation and humidity fluxesPrecipitation and humidity fluxes
Convective plums due to leadsConvective plums due to leads
Surface turbulent Surface turbulent fluxesfluxes
Snow and ice albedo
Surface radiative Surface radiative fluxesfluxes
Stable boundary Stable boundary layerlayer
Cloud-radiation Cloud-radiation interactioninteraction
Atmosphere
Concerns Concerns
There are not enough observational There are not enough observational data for model initialization, forcing, data for model initialization, forcing, validation and assimilation.validation and assimilation.
A comprehensive AON is urgently A comprehensive AON is urgently needed to satisfy needs of both needed to satisfy needs of both observational and modeling observational and modeling communitiescommunities
o ice coverage / thickness (satellites)
o monitor strategic locations
o profilers
o bathymetry (IBCAO)
Ocean
What are the existing modeling and model validation efforts aimed towards answering these questions?
1. MIPs: SIMIP,ARCMIP, AOMIP (proposed), CARCMIP (status?), Southern Ocean MIP (?)
2. Global and regional models (independent validation efforts)
ChallengesChallenges
The major challenge of the MIPs is to improve The major challenge of the MIPs is to improve existing regional Arctic atmosphere, ice, ocean existing regional Arctic atmosphere, ice, ocean and terrestrial models and, respectively, global and terrestrial models and, respectively, global climate models:climate models:
This work is expensive and requires significant This work is expensive and requires significant financial and labor resources. financial and labor resources.
In order to develop a comprehensive arctic In order to develop a comprehensive arctic model it is necessary to involve the entire model it is necessary to involve the entire community of arctic researches including community of arctic researches including modelers and observers, scientists and modelers and observers, scientists and engineers from different disciplines. engineers from different disciplines.
• What model and model validation projects are on the horizon aimed towards answering these questions?
Ocean
o AOMIP proposal was submitted in November 2007
o OCMIP 3
o EcoMIP (US GLOBEC interested)
o DARWIN (self-organizing approach vs IBMs)
Table 1 AOMIP Project participants.
Institute, PI(s)Country Abbreviatio
nSupport type
Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, A. Makshtas Russia AARI B
Alfred Wegener Institute, R. Gerdes and C. Koeberle Germany AWI B
Florida State University, E. Chassignet and D. Dukhovskoy USA FSU A
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, S. Griffies, M. Winton USA GFDL B
Goddard Space Flight Center, S. Hakkinen USA GSFC B
International Arctic Research Center, B. Hibler, G. Panteleev USA IARC B
Institute of Marine Sciences, UAF, M. Johnson USA IMS A
Institute of Ocean Sciences, G. Holloway Canada IOS B
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, R. Kwok, A. Nguyen USA JPL B
Los Alamos National Laboratory, E. Hunke USA LANL B
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, C. Hill USA MIT A
Naval Postgraduate School, W. Maslowski USA NPS A
National Center for Atmospheric Research, M. Holland USA NCAR B
New York University, D. Holland USA NYU A
Norwegian Polar Institute, Ole Anders Nøst Norway NPI B
Ocean and Atmosphere Systems, M. Karcher and F. Kauker Germany OASYS B
Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, M. Maqueda UK POL B
Russian Academy of Science, Moscow, N. Yakovlev Russia RASM B
Russian Academy of Science, Novosibirsk, E. Golubeva Russia RASN B
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, M. Meir Sweden SMHI B
University College London, S. Laxon UK UCL B
University of Massachusetts, Dartmouth, C. Chen USA UMAS A
University of Washington, M. Steele, J. Zhang USA UW A
Woods Hole Oceanogr. Ins, A. Proshutinsky, P. Winsor, A. Condron
USA WHOI A
• What arctic science questions cannot be answered with limited area regional coupled arctic models?
Ocean
o any question where dynamic coupling between the global and regional models is strong
• What science questions are missing from existing efforts?
Ocean
o mass balance questions (e.g., what are land ice sheets doing? How is mass being rearranged in the ocean?)
o fate of fresh water inputs from (e.g.) Greenland.
o sea ice at high resolution (interactions with – e.g. – tides, mesoscale eddies, submesoscale, …)
o transmission/fate of eddy signals across non-uniform grids
• What human systems are relevant to the physical systems being addressed? Are there existing models for these human systems?
• What are human systems?
Ocean
o ecosystems/fisheries
o navigation
o energy exploration
o coastal erosion
o national security
• What are reasonable boundaries on the ‘Arctic System’ for your area of research?
Ocean
o down to 58N, including: Bering Sea, Norwegian Sea, Barents Sea, Baffin Bay, etc. Sea of Okhotsk (?)