Observing the Climate System – now and in the future · 22 Space-based CO2 and CH4 Measurements...
Transcript of Observing the Climate System – now and in the future · 22 Space-based CO2 and CH4 Measurements...
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ObservingtheClimateSystem–nowandinthefutureProf. StephenBriggsChair,GCOSSteeringCommitteeDept.ofChemistry,CambridgeUniversity&Dept. ofMeteorologyReadingUniversity
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Credit: Victor & Kennel, Nature Climate Change, 2014.
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AtmosphereSurface
•Precipitation•Pressure•Radiationbudget•Temperature•Watervapour•Windspeedanddirection
Upper-air•Cloudproperties•Earthradiationbudget•Lightning•Temperature•Watervapour•Windspeedanddirection
AtmosphericComposition•Aerosolandozoneprecursors•Aerosolsproperties•Carbondioxide,methaneandothergreenhousegases•Ozone
Land
Hydrosphere•Groundwater•Lakes•Riverdischarge
Cryosphere•Glaciers•Icesheetsandiceshelves•Permafrost•Snow
Biosphere•Above-groundbiomass•Albedo•Evaporationfromland•Fire•Fractionofabsorbedphotosyntheticallyactiveradiation(FAPAR)•Landcover•Leafareaindex•Soilcarbon•Soilmoisture•Landsurfacetemperature
Anthroposphere•AnthropogenicGreenhousegasfluxes•Anthropogenicwateruse
Ocean
Physical- Surface•Oceansurfaceheatflux•Seaice•Sealevel•Seastate•Seasurfacecurrents•Seasurfacesalinity•Seasurfacestress•Seasurfacetemperature
Physical- subsurface•Subsurfacecurrents•Subsurfacesalinity•Subsurfacetemperature
Biogeochemical•Inorganiccarbon•Nitrousoxide•Nutrients•Oceancolour•Oxygen•Transienttracers
Biological/ecosystems•Marinehabitatproperties•Plankton
EssentialClimateVariables
ECV
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Energy
Water Carbon
Albedo,Latentand
SensibleHeatfluxes,Land
SurfaceTemperature
SoilMoisture,River
Discharge,Lakes,
Groundwater,Cryosphere,Wateruse
SoilCarbon,Above-groundBiomass,Fire,GHGFluxes
RadiationBudgets,
TemperatureWindspeed&
direction
OceanSurfaceHeatFlux,Sea
Surface&Subsurface
Temperature,
Precipitation,Cloud
Properties,WaterVapour
SurfaceTemperature
SeaSurface&Subsurface
Salinity,SeaLevel,
SeaSurfaceTemperature
CarbonDioxide,Methane
InorganicCarbon
Sea Level RiseFisheries
DeforestationMitigationEcosystem Loss
TemperatureHeat waves
Coral Bleaching Agriculture
Human HealthFloods
DroughtsWater Resources
Storms
Ocean Acidification
Systemic RisksSecurity
Slow Economic Development
Und
erst
andi
nga
ndm
onito
ring
Clim
ate
Cycl
es
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MonitoringcontributingtotheParis
Agreement&Global
Stocktake
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Meancumulativemassbalanceofallreportedglaciers(blueline)andthereferenceglaciers(redline).SOURCE:worldglaciermonitoringservicehttp://wgms.ch/
Septembersea-iceextentfortheArctic,and(right)Septembersea-iceextentfortheAntarctic.Percentageoflong-termaverageofthereferenceperiod1981–2010(Source:preparedbyWMOusingdatafromtheUSNationalSnowandIceDataCenter)
Globallyaveragedmolefraction(measureofconcentration),from1984to2016,ofCO2inpartspermillion(left),CH4inpartsperbillion(middle)andN2Oinpartsperbillion(right).Theredlineisthemonthlymeanmolefractionwiththeseasonalvariationsremoved;thebluedotsandlinedepictthemonthlyaverages.(Source:WMOGlobalAtmosphereWatch)
Trendsinsurface(<50m)oceancarbonatechemistrycalculatedfromobservationsobtainedattheHawaiiOceanTimeseries (HOT)ProgramintheNorthPacificover1988–2015.SeawaterpH(blackpoints,primaryy-axis)andcarbonateionconcentration(greenpoints,secondaryy-axis).OceanchemistrydatawereobtainedfromtheHawaiiOceanTimeseries DataOrganization&GraphicalSystem(HOT-DOGS).(Source:USNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA),JewettandRomanou,2017)
Globalmeansea-leveltimeseries(withseasonalcycleremoved),January1993–January2018,fromsatellitealtimetrymulti-missions.DatafromAVISO(Source:Collecte- Localisation-Satellite(CLS)– Laboratoire d’Etudesen Géophysique etOcéanographie Spatiales (LEGOS))
Globaloceanheatcontentchange(x1022J)forthe0–700metrelayer:three-monthlymeans(red),andannual(black)and5-year(blue)runningmeans,fromtheUSNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA)dataset.(Source:preparedbyWMOusingdatafromNOAANationalCentersforEnvironmentalInformation)
Globalmeantemperatureanomalies,withrespecttothe1850–1900baseline,forthefiveglobaldatasets(Source:UKMetOfficeHadleyCentre)
MeanTemperature OceanAcidity AtmosphericCO2GlacierMassBalance
Arctic AntarcticSeaLevelChange
OceanHeatContent SeaIceExtent
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GCOSencouragesDataRescue
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GCOSCooperationMechanism
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Argo is one core network, with Deep Argo in pilot mode.
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Argo is one core network, with Deep Argo in pilot mode.
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GlobalRiverDischargeData
• Whileriverdischargeismeasured,insomepartsoftheworldriverdischargedataisnotroutinelyexchanged• MeasurementsanddataexchangearecoordinatedinternationallybyWMO• ThedataisheldbytheGlobalRunoffDataCentre(GRDC)inKoblenz,Germany
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ArcticPermafrostMonitoring
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www.swisseduc.ch/glaciers/
Glaciers distinctfromtheGreenland&AntarcticIceSheets
215,000glaciers·158,000km3 ·0.32mpotentialSLE
Farinottietal.(2019),NatureGeoscience
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Annualglaciercontributionstosea-levelrise1961-2016
intro data methods results take home
Zemp et al. (2019)
GlobalΔM2011-16:-335Gtyr-1
about1mmSLEyr-1(3xremainingiceoftheAlps)
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Shepherdetal,.Nature,June2018.
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CPOM,Univ ofLeeds.
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Maincontributionstosea-levelbudget2004-2015
intro data methods results take home
Glacier data from Zemp et al. (2019), other values from Cazenave et al. (2018), observed GMSLR: 3.5 mm per year
thermal expansion
glaciers
GreenlandIce Sheet
Antarctic Ice Sheet residuals
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Thermal expansion + Ocean mass change
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regional sea-level trends mm p.a.
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22
Space-basedCO2 andCH4 MeasurementsProvideIncreasedCoverageandResolution
Spatially-resolvedestimatesofthecolumn-averagedCO2 andCH4 dryairmolefractions,XCO2 andXCH4,likethosefromNASA’sOrbitingCarbonObservatory-2(OCO-2)andJapan’sGreenhousegasesObservingSATellite (GOSAT)arelesspreciseandaccuratethanground-basedinsitudatabutprovidehighspatialandtemporalresolutionandgreatercoverageoftheglobe.
XCO2 measurementscollectedbyOCO-2inMay2016. PersistentspatialanomaliesinOCO-2XCO2 estimatesfor2015– 2018.YellowregionshavepersistentlyhighCO2.
ppmCO2
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UNFCCC/COP25 Japan Pavilion Seminar 23
A System Approach for Atmospheric Inventories
Measurements Models Products
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ESA UNCLASSIFIED - For Official Use NoRSC’19 | 18 Sept. 2019 | Slide 24
Aeolus: Atmospheric Dynamics
27 February 2019© ESA/ECMWF
Weak Polar Vortexseen from east (blue); from west (red)
Subtropical Jet seen from west
Subtropical Jet Streams seen from east (blue)
Polar Jet Streamseen from east
(blue)
m/s
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ESA UNCLASSIFIED - For Official Use NoRSC’19 | 18 Sept. 2019 | Slide 25
BiomassMission Measure forest biomass and height
(200 m. pixel)
Payload P-Band radar
Orbit SSO, alt: 666 km; LTAN: 06h00
Satellite 1250 Kg
Consortium Prime: ADS-UK, Instrument: ADS-DE
Launch 2022
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ESA UNCLASSIFIED - For Official Use NoRSC’19 | 18 Sept. 2019 | Slide 26
S-1
Radar
A3 Apr. 2014
B25 Apr. 2016
S-2
High Res. Optical
A23 Jun. 2015
B6 Mar. 2017
S-3
Medium Res. Optical & Altimetry
A16 Feb. 2016
B25 Apr. 2018
S-4
Atmospheric Chemistry
(GEO)A
2022
B2027
S-5P
Atmospheric Chemistry
(LEO)A
13 Oct. 2017
S-5
Atmospheric Chemistry
(LEO)A
2021
B2027
S-6
Altimetry
A2020
B2025
Sentinel Status
C2022/23
C2022/23
D> 2022/23
C2023
D> 2023
C> 2027
D> 2022/23
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TheSentinel-3WorldFireAtlasrecorded79000wildfiresinAugust2019,comparedtojustover16000firesduringthesameperiodin2018.
GlobalfiresdetectedinAugust2018comparedtoAugust2019
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ESA UNCLASSIFIED - For Official Use NoRSC’19 | 18 Sept. 2019 | Slide 28
Sentinel-5p and Sentinel-3: Amazon Fires
See World Fire Atlas at:https://s3worldfireatlas.esa.int/
See: Monitoring air pollution from fires
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ESA UNCLASSIFIED - For Official Use NoRSC’19 | 18 Sept. 2019 | Slide 29
Sub-kilometric soil moisture (SMOS+S1 -500m)
www.satykut.com
April2016
May2016 June 2016 July2016
Aug.2016 Sept.2016
Oct.2016 Nov.2016 Dec.2016
Courtesy Al Bitar & Tomer
Monsoon
Monsoon
KarnatakaS.W. India
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Observation,Infrastructure&InformationSystems
Weather,Climate,WaterandrelatedenvironmentalServicesandApplications
Sensing•ObservationoftheEarth
System
Networkandsystemoperators:e.g.nationalmeteorologicalservices,
satelliteagencies
DataRecords•PreparationofClimate
Datarecords•Archiving,•Reanalysis,•Productionoflong
datasets•Climateprojections
DataManagers,Modeler,Re-Analyses(ECMFW,
NCEP,DWD,JMA,Research,dataProviders,
etc.)
DeliveryofServices•Deliveryoftargeted
informationforspecificapplicationsortoinformdecisions
Servicecompanies&agencies,(Copernicus,ESRI,
GoogleMaps,nationalmeteorologicalservices)
DecisionMakingandImplementation• Implementactionsbased
ontheinformation
Nationalauthorities,insurancecompanies,
privatesector
GCOS
GCOSsupportsobservationsand
productionofclimatethedatarecordsthatunderpinclimate
servicedelivery,e.g.forweather,
hydrology,oceancryosphereandbiosphere.
Feedbackonuserneedsandgapsinobservationalanddatasystems
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Before…Re a n a l y s i s d a t a a n d d e r i v e d p r o d u c t s
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Rawmaterials
•ObservationoftheEarthSystem
• Satellitedata
• Insitu
• Ships/buoys/gliders
• Drones
• …......
Consolidationofdatasources- “wholesale
services”
• Wholesaledata
• Archives
• Reanalyses
• C3S,CMS,…G
DecisionMaking-thefamous“users”
- Government- Policy- Operational- Commercial- Security- Civilsecurity- SCIENCE- …...
I
Scienceinputs
GeophysicalModels
GeospatiallyReferenced
Continuousfieldsasoutput
f(x,y,z,t,,x0,x1…)
GeospatiallyReferenced
Statistical
Non-physicalData
LBS
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Evolving citizen data collection
Election Pope Benedict XVI
Election Pope Francis
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Examplesofremotesensingofresponsestoclimatechanges
Adelaide.SOURCE:modifiedCopernicusSentineldata(2017),processedbyESA,CCBY-SA3.0IGO
GroundwaterdepletioninSaudiArabia,GRACE
measurements
Overextractionbyagriculture
Expe
cted
Mor
talit
yle
adst
oAc
tions
to
cool
Citi
es
ECVsinclude:LandCover
LandSurfacetemperatureGroundwater
AnthropogenicwateruseAnthropogenicGHG
Mortalityincreaseswithaveragetemperature
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Highresolutioncommerciallyavailablesatellitedatausedforurbanplanningandclimateadaptation– Jeddah,SaudiArabia