Observers-Modelers Observations-Models Same struggle? François Massonnet Barrow workshop 29 Apr –...
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Transcript of Observers-Modelers Observations-Models Same struggle? François Massonnet Barrow workshop 29 Apr –...
![Page 1: Observers-Modelers Observations-Models Same struggle? François Massonnet Barrow workshop 29 Apr – 31 May 2015.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e415503460f94b326c2/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Observers-Modelers Observations-Models
Same struggle?
François Massonnet
Barrow workshop29 Apr – 31 May 2015
![Page 2: Observers-Modelers Observations-Models Same struggle? François Massonnet Barrow workshop 29 Apr – 31 May 2015.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e415503460f94b326c2/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Blending observers and modelers
Blending observations and models
![Page 3: Observers-Modelers Observations-Models Same struggle? François Massonnet Barrow workshop 29 Apr – 31 May 2015.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e415503460f94b326c2/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Blending observers and modelers
Blending observations and models
![Page 4: Observers-Modelers Observations-Models Same struggle? François Massonnet Barrow workshop 29 Apr – 31 May 2015.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e415503460f94b326c2/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Document issued after CliC Arctic Sea Ice Working Group meeting, Boulder, Nov. 2011
![Page 5: Observers-Modelers Observations-Models Same struggle? François Massonnet Barrow workshop 29 Apr – 31 May 2015.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e415503460f94b326c2/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
sea ice thickness
obsmodel
![Page 6: Observers-Modelers Observations-Models Same struggle? François Massonnet Barrow workshop 29 Apr – 31 May 2015.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e415503460f94b326c2/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Let’s list all the reasons why a model result and an observation could be different
sea ice thickness
obsmodel
![Page 7: Observers-Modelers Observations-Models Same struggle? François Massonnet Barrow workshop 29 Apr – 31 May 2015.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e415503460f94b326c2/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Let’s list all the reasons why a model result and an observation could be different1. The model is truly wrong
Parameterizations induce biases, forcing is not correctNote: we never validate models. Sometimes, we are just not
able to discard them (cf. Dirk Notz)
sea ice thickness
obsmodel
![Page 8: Observers-Modelers Observations-Models Same struggle? François Massonnet Barrow workshop 29 Apr – 31 May 2015.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e415503460f94b326c2/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Let’s list all the reasons why a model result and an observation could be different1. The model is truly wrong2. Variables are not defined consistently
- Grid-cell average sea ice thickness versus in situ- Sampling issues in time and space (e.g., ASPeCT ship
data)- Averaging and scaling issues (3-day ice displacement ≠
Sum of hourly displacements over three days)
sea ice thickness
obsmodel
![Page 9: Observers-Modelers Observations-Models Same struggle? François Massonnet Barrow workshop 29 Apr – 31 May 2015.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e415503460f94b326c2/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Let’s list all the reasons why a model result and an observation could be different1. The model is truly wrong2. Variables are not defined consistently3. Important assumptions are not necessarily verified
- Hydrostatic assumption: sea ice thickness retrieved from freeboard. Snow load and density are often assumed constant!
- Melt ponds are viewed as open water in some retrieval algorithms for sea ice concentration
sea ice thickness
obsmodel
![Page 10: Observers-Modelers Observations-Models Same struggle? François Massonnet Barrow workshop 29 Apr – 31 May 2015.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e415503460f94b326c2/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Let’s list all the reasons why a model result and an observation could be different1. The model is truly wrong2. Variables are not defined consistently3. Important assumptions are not necessarily verified4. Observations have uncertainties (rarely reported though).
- Instrumental error- Imprecision of algorithm.
sea ice thickness
obsmodel
![Page 11: Observers-Modelers Observations-Models Same struggle? François Massonnet Barrow workshop 29 Apr – 31 May 2015.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e415503460f94b326c2/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Let’s list all the reasons why a model result and an observation could be different1. The model is truly wrong2. Variables are not defined consistently3. Important assumptions are not necessarily verified4. Observations have uncertainties (rarely reported though). 5. The model is just not expected to reproduce this observation
- Presence of internal variability. Now also for OGCMs!- Members, members, members.
sea ice thickness
obsmodel
![Page 12: Observers-Modelers Observations-Models Same struggle? François Massonnet Barrow workshop 29 Apr – 31 May 2015.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e415503460f94b326c2/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Blending observers and modelers- To avoid language issues: glossary?- Standardize sea ice output (e.g. CMIP6), obs (e.g.
ASPeCT)- Read the god-damned meta-data!
Blending observations and models
![Page 13: Observers-Modelers Observations-Models Same struggle? François Massonnet Barrow workshop 29 Apr – 31 May 2015.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e415503460f94b326c2/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Blending observers and modelers
Blending observations and models
![Page 14: Observers-Modelers Observations-Models Same struggle? François Massonnet Barrow workshop 29 Apr – 31 May 2015.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e415503460f94b326c2/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
thickness
heat content
brine content
Whole sea ice state
Updated whole state
Observation
Data assimilation consists in optimally updating the whole sea ice state, given incomplete observations
concentrationmixed layer heat content
![Page 15: Observers-Modelers Observations-Models Same struggle? François Massonnet Barrow workshop 29 Apr – 31 May 2015.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e415503460f94b326c2/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
1. Run an ensemble of simulations and shake your model as much as you can2. Look at relationships between « observables » and « non-observables »
26th March 2012
27th September 2012
Correlation (ice conc., snow thick.)
Correlation (ice thick., snow thick.)
![Page 16: Observers-Modelers Observations-Models Same struggle? François Massonnet Barrow workshop 29 Apr – 31 May 2015.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e415503460f94b326c2/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
1. Run an ensemble of simulations and shake your model as much as you can2. Look at relationships between « observables » and « non-observables »
26th March 2012
Sea ice thickness [m]
Correlation (ice conc., snow thick.)
Correlation (ice thick., snow thick.)
Snow
th
ickn
ess
[m
]
25 members
3. Update the non-observable (e.g. snow), given information on an observable (e.g. sea ice)
![Page 17: Observers-Modelers Observations-Models Same struggle? François Massonnet Barrow workshop 29 Apr – 31 May 2015.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e415503460f94b326c2/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
1. Run an ensemble of simulations and shake your model as much as you can2. Look at relationships between « observables » and « non-observables »
26th March 2012
Sea ice thickness [m]
Correlation (ice conc., snow thick.)
Correlation (ice thick., snow thick.)
Snow
th
ickn
ess
[m
]
25 members
3. Update the non-observable (e.g. snow), given information on an observable (e.g. sea ice)
OBS
![Page 18: Observers-Modelers Observations-Models Same struggle? François Massonnet Barrow workshop 29 Apr – 31 May 2015.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e415503460f94b326c2/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Blending observers and modelers- To avoid language issues: glossary?- Standardize sea ice output (e.g. CMIP6), obs
(e.g. ASPeCT)- Read the god-damned meta-data!
Blending observations and models- An ensemble allows to understand
relationships among different variables- More generally, a model can guide
observations- Data assimilation updates the whole model
given incomplete observations
![Page 19: Observers-Modelers Observations-Models Same struggle? François Massonnet Barrow workshop 29 Apr – 31 May 2015.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e415503460f94b326c2/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Thank you!
www.climate.be/u/fmasson
@FMassonnet