objectives...

21-22 March 2005 LMD, Palaiseau, France

CHIMERE workshop

Air quality assessment for Portugal

A. Monteiro, C. Borrego, A.I. Miranda, R. Vautard

Universidade de Aveiro, Portugal

objectives...

...to contribute to the air

quality evaluation,

according to the AQ

Framework Directive

...to verify the fulfilment of

the Daughter Directives

for

NO2, SO2, CO and specially O3

ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-range

Weather Prediction)

meteorology

3D fields WindTemperatureSpecific humidity

2D fields Superficial pressureCloud coverPrecipitation

CHIMERE gas-phasephotochemistry

3D fieldsPollutants concentrationO3, NO2, NO, CO, COV,

SO2

2D fields Pollutants deposition

methodology...model system

methodology...study domain

1a simulation at continental scale

10.5W 22.5E

35N

57.5N

Initial and background conditionsMOZART climatological model

emissionsEMEP inventory

vertical structure6 levels (50, 250, 600, 1200, 2000 e 3000 m)

simulation period2001

50x50 km


“simple one-way technique”

2a simulation nested to PORTUGAL

domain


290 km

580 km

10x10 km

Initial and background conditionssimulated outputs 50x50 kmemissions “top-down” methodology (VII CNA: Monteiro et al, 2001)

2a simulation nested to PORTUGAL

domain

AQ standart (µg.m-3)

Nº of allowed excedeences

Target date

SO2 (1999/30/EC)

350 24 times/year 1 Jan 2005


20 - -

20 - -

NO2 (1999/30/EC)


40 - 1 Jan 2010

CO (2000/69/EC)

10 mg.m-3 - 1 Jan 2005

O3 (2002/3/EC)


18000 µg.m-

3.h- 1 Jan 2010

180 - -

Parameters

Human health protection


Vegetation protection

Vegetation protection




Human health protection (target value)

Vegetation protection (AOT40) (target value)Information threshold

Alert threshold

Period

Hourly average

Daily average

Anual average

Winter average

Hourly average

Anual average

8h running average

8h running average

Hourly average (May-July)

hourly average

Hourly average 240 3 consecutive h -

air quality assessment

SO2 25ª m axim um hour o f the year

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

SO 2(µg.m -3)

4ª m axim um daily average of the year

SO 2(µg.m -3)

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

105

120

135

150

165

180

195

210

225

240

125

human health protection

air quality assessment...2001!

limite value

limite valuePorto

Lisbon

0102030405060708090100110120130140150160170180190200

19ª m axim um hour o f the year

NO 2(µg.m -3)

0246810121416182022242628303234363840

A nnual averageNO 2

(µg.m -3)



NO2

limite valuelimite

value


100

200

300

400

500

1000

5000

10000

C O( µ g . m - 3 )

M axim um 8h running average

0

200

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

C O( µ g . m - 3 )

A nnual average


CO


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

26ª m axim um 8h running average

O 3(µg.m -3)


O3

limite value

VALOR-ALVO PROTECÇÃO VEGETAÇÃO

OBJECTIVO LONGO-PRAZO PROTECÇÃO VEGETAÇÃO

5 10 15 20 25

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55 AO T40(µg.m -3.h)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

22000

vegetation protectionExcedências AO T40

AOT exceedancesAOT exceedances


O3

Air Quality National network

##

#

#

#

#

#

##

#

#

#

#

#

#

##

#

###

#

background stations•industrial stations•traffic stations•

23

5

17

45

validation exercise

Polutant

Error

SO2

0,34

0,57

0,43

0,54

NO20,48

0,50

CO 0,32

O3

0,16

0,59

Parameters

Human health protection (hourly limit value)

Human health protection(daily limit value)

Vegetation protection (annual limit value)

Vegetation protection (winter limit value)

Human health protection (hourly limit value)

Human health protection (annual limit value)

Human health protection (daily 8h limit value)

Human health protection (daily 8h limit value)

Vegetation protection (AOT40)

(annual average) 0,40

validation exercise...quantitatively


STATION TYPE

RMSE(µg.m-3)

r bias RMSE(µg.m-3)

r RMSE(µg.m-3)

r

AVA Background 18.46 0,78 -5,04 21,71 0,59 24,55 0,48

MVE Background 19.00 0,66 -3,56 9,36 0,53 33,12 0,49

LOU Background 19.93 0,85 -6,99 29,20 0,68 30,43 0,59

PP Background 20.10 0,80 -2,86 35,26 0,59 37,65 0,40

BEA Background 21.95 0,73 -9,22 33,85 0,49 32,65 0,53

REB Background 22.16 0,71 -4,23 33,50 0,63 25,51 0,66

ALF Background 22.41 0,65 10,38 30,39 0,53 33,50 0,47

LEC Background 22.55 0,73 -13,25 32,16 0,62 29,98 0,56

ERM Background 22.83 0,78 -10,41 32,85 0,58 26,24 0,61

LAR Background 22.85 0,77 -10,10 35,88 0,64 32,62 0,54

VNT Background 25.50 0,64 -11,66 34,34 0,63 32,25 0,53average 22 0.7 -7.8 33 0.4 34 0.4

NO2 SO2O3


AVANCA(fundo rural)

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360

O3 (µg

.m

-3 )

0

50

100

150

200

250

simuladoobservado

dias

MONTE CHÃOS

(industrial)

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360

O3 ( µg

.m

-3 )

0

50

100

150

200

250

simuladoobservado

diasHOSPITAL VELHO

(tráfego)

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360

O3 ( µg

.m

-3 )

0

50

100

150

200

250

simuladoobservado

dias

background

industrial

traffic

observedsimulated

O3

(µg

.m-3)

good agreement

overestimation

overestimation

modelled measured modelled measured NO2

O3

Experimental campaigns with difusion tubes

validation exercise...quanlitatively

2001 05 27 15H

ERM ESINDE200

TEIXUG UEIRA240

2001 05 28 14

5 10 15 20 25

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

TE IXU G U EIR A300

AVAN C A200

M O N TE VELH O180

2001 05 29 14h

TE IXU G U EIR A200

5 10 15 20 25

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

O 3 (µg.m -3)

episode days...

sensitivity tests...RMS error

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

LOU BEA LAR REB PP LEC ALF ERM AVA VNT MVE CUS

background stations

µg

.m-3

V200410 MM5

V200410 ECMWF

V200303 ECMWF

correlation factor

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

LOU BEA LAR REB PP LEC ALF ERM AVA VNT MVE CUS

background stations

V200410 MM5

V200410 ECMWF

V200303 ECMWF

V 200410

V 200303

MM5

ECMWF

MM5

ECMWF

future work...

• operational air quality forecast for Portugal

10x10 km with zoom to Lisbon and Porto area

•aerosols version simulation

•forest fire emissions estimation and its

integration in the forecast air quality system

•...

Thank you!

objectives...

Documents

Transcript of objectives...