Objective of Agrimonde-Terra Conceptual framework...Conceptual framework The system is broken down...
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Conceptual framework The system is broken down into components, each of which has several variables. Objective of Agrimonde-Terra To contribute to SDGs (end hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns) by preparing global regionalized scenarios about the futures of land uses and their contribution to food security in 2050 as a tool for discussions between stakeholders. A quantitative platform, Globagri, has been developed to assess the feasibility of the projected trends. Agrimonde-Terra conceptual framework Method Hypothesis on evolution of variables Micro-scenario per driver Generic scenarios for land use built by combining micro-scenarios per driver 1st option: Building regionalized global scenarios 2nd option: Building national/regional scenarios Interactions of climate with other drivers Economic development Energy mix Climate Land uses Governance and economic development micro scenarios Conventional global development led by market forces Sustainable and cooperative world Economic and political fragmentation Regionalization and energetic transition Climate micro scenarios RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6. RCP 4.5 RCP 4.5 Increases in temperatures + 2°C in 2050, +4°C in 2100 + 1°C in 2050, +2°C in 2100 + 1.4°C in 2050, +1.8°C in 2100 + 1.4°C in 2050, +1.8°C in 2100 Precipitations (global average) and climatic events +0,15 mm/day in 2100. Increase in extreme events. Limited changes (+0,05 mm /day in 2100) +0,09 mm/day in 2100 +0,09 mm/day in 2100 Policies Maybe starting after 2050. Effective starting in 2020 No specific policies Regional policies starting around 2030 Influence of biogeo-chemical cycles on crops yields and proteins content Negative impact of CO2 on crops’ yields and positive impact of O3 on proteins contents. Neutral effect Neutral effect Neutral effect Adaptive capacities of societies Low adaptive capacities: High inter- and intra-regional inequalities; Lack of coordination. High adaptive capacities: Low inter- and intra-regional inequalities; Strong coordination among actors. Some adaptive capacities in some places and no adaptive capacities in other places. Decrease of productive means ; High inter- and intra-regional inequalities; Institutional instability. High adaptive capacities: Low intra-regional inequalities; voluntary restraint in consumption increase ; flexibility of local development pathways. Impact on yields Decreases in yields : wheat : - 13% between 2010 and 2050; Maize : –14%; Rice –16%; Soybean –30%. Increased inter- annual variability in crop yields No major change on yields and farmland at the global scale Moderate yield loss at the global scale between 2001–2050 : wheat : -6%; Maize : -7%; Rice: -8%, soybean : -15% Moderate yield loss at the global scale between 2001–2050 : wheat : -6%; Maize : -7%; Rice: -8%, soybean : -15% Energy mix micro scenarios High rate of coal consumption. Non conventional oil and coal used for liquid fuels. Massive development of lignocellulose bioenergy. Development of wind offshore and solar energy. Decrease of energy demand due to crisis. Local reforestation. Use of biomass from forests. Ecosystems services produced locally by farms. Voluntary efforts to control energy demand. Reforestation. Improvement of electrical networks. Decentralization of energy production. Direct drivers micro-scenarios Prepared but not mentioned here Land use scenarios Land uses driven by large metropolitan and distant regions who buy where climate allows production Land uses driven by high attention given to healthy nutrition and mitigation of climate change Dualism: some land uses driven by local rural communities caring for sustainability, and land degradation and collapse in other local areas. Land uses driven by regional food systems and allowing for diverse diets Land uses driven by household strategies (mobility, multiactivity) Scenarios for the futures : The scenarios are designed to describe a large spectrum of plausible evolutions in the world. They are the results of an analysis of interactions and links of causality between drivers. Their construction and designation is still under process. CFCC15 – Our common future under climate change – 9 July 2015 - P-2236-05 Agriculture, which produced, consumed and transformed energy and was autonomous, has become heteronomous. It depends on fossil energy), and thus contributes to climate change. Agriculture is also asked to biomass for energy, in particular to lower the cost of climate change mitigation policies.
Transcript of Objective of Agrimonde-Terra Conceptual framework...Conceptual framework The system is broken down...
Conceptual framework
The system is broken down into components, each of which has several variables.
Objective of Agrimonde-Terra
To contribute to SDGs (end hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns) by preparing global regionalized scenarios about the futures of land uses and their contribution to food security in 2050 as a tool for discussions between stakeholders. A quantitative platform, Globagri, has been developed to assess the feasibility of the projected trends.
Agrimonde-Terra conceptual framework Method
Hypothesis on evolution of variables Micro-scenario per driver
Generic scenarios for land use built by combining micro-scenarios per driver
1st option: Building regionalized global scenarios
2nd option: Building
national/regional scenarios
Interactions of climate with other drivers
Economic development
Energy mix
Climate
Land uses
Governance and economic development micro scenarios
Conventional global development led by market
forces
Sustainable and cooperative world
Economic and political fragmentation
Regionalization and energetic transition
Climate micro scenarios RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6. RCP 4.5 RCP 4.5
Increases in temperatures
+ 2°C in 2050, +4°C in 2100 + 1°C in 2050, +2°C in 2100 + 1.4°C in 2050, +1.8°C in 2100 + 1.4°C in 2050, +1.8°C in 2100
Precipitations (global average) and climatic events
+0,15 mm/day in 2100. Increase in extreme events.
Limited changes (+0,05 mm /day in 2100)
+0,09 mm/day in 2100 +0,09 mm/day in 2100
Policies Maybe starting after 2050. Effective starting in 2020 No specific policies Regional policies starting around 2030
Influence of biogeo-chemical cycles on crops yields and
proteins content
Negative impact of CO2 on crops’ yields and positive impact of O3 on proteins contents.
Neutral effect Neutral effect Neutral effect
Adaptive capacities of societies
Low adaptive capacities: High inter- and intra-regional inequalities; Lack of coordination.
High adaptive capacities: Low inter- and intra-regional inequalities; Strong coordination among actors.
Some adaptive capacities in some places and no adaptive capacities in other places. Decrease of productive means ; High inter- and intra-regional inequalities; Institutional instability.
High adaptive capacities: Low intra-regional inequalities; voluntary restraint in consumption increase ; flexibility of local development pathways.
Impact on yields Decreases in yields : wheat : -13% between 2010 and 2050; Maize : –14%; Rice –16%; Soybean –30%. Increased inter-annual variability in crop yields
No major change on yields and farmland at the global scale
Moderate yield loss at the global scale between 2001–2050 : wheat : -6%; Maize : -7%; Rice: -8%, soybean : -15%
Moderate yield loss at the global scale between 2001–2050 : wheat : -6%; Maize : -7%; Rice: -8%, soybean : -15%
Energy mix micro scenarios High rate of coal consumption. Non conventional oil and coal used for liquid fuels.
Massive development of lignocellulose bioenergy. Development of wind offshore and solar energy.
Decrease of energy demand due to crisis. Local reforestation. Use of biomass from forests. Ecosystems services produced locally by farms.
Voluntary efforts to control energy demand. Reforestation. Improvement of electrical networks. Decentralization of energy production.
Direct drivers micro-scenarios Prepared but not mentioned here
Land use scenarios Land uses driven by large metropolitan and distant
regions who buy where climate allows production
Land uses driven by high attention given to healthy nutrition and mitigation of
climate change
Dualism: some land uses driven by local rural communities caring for
sustainability, and land degradation and collapse in other
local areas.
Land uses driven by regional food systems and allowing for
diverse diets
Land uses driven by household strategies
(mobility, multiactivity)
Scenarios for the futures : The scenarios are designed to describe a large spectrum of plausible evolutions in the world. They are
the results of an analysis of interactions and links of causality between drivers. Their construction and designation is still under process.
CFCC15 – Our common future under climate change – 9 July 2015 - P-2236-05
Agriculture, which produced, consumed and transformed energy and was autonomous, has become heteronomous. It depends on fossil energy), and thus contributes to climate change. Agriculture is also asked to biomass for energy, in particular to lower the cost of climate change mitigation policies.
