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FORCASTING OF NUMBER OF STUDENTS ENROLLED FOR FIRST SEMESTER OF S.Y. 2015-2016: BASIS FOR JPCD EMPLOYMENT IN PREPARATION OF K TO12

In Preference of Estimated Number of InstructorsFor Administration, Deans and Program HeadsJohn Paul II College of DavaoFirst Semester, S.Y. 2015-2016

By:

Engr. Arnell F. Mesina, MEP, MMEPart Time Instructor

January 2015IntroductionEducation is the key to the long-term problems of the country. If we fix basic education, we fix the long-term problems of the country. And if we fix the countrys problems, we will build a truly strong society. . . (Pres. Benigno Simeon C. Aquino III). We need to add two years to our basic education. Those who can afford pay up to fourteen years of schooling before university. Thus, their children are getting into the best universities and the best jobs after graduation. I want at least 12 years for our public school children to give them an even chance at succeeding. (Pres. Benigno Simeon C. Aquino III).In 2011, the Republic of the Philippines began a major overhaul of the K-12 education in the Philippines. Prior to 2011, education in the Philippines had not been compulsory and had only been offered for ten years as compared to thetwelve for most other developed countries.TheDepartment of Educationin the Philippines began to implement the new K-12 system of education, requiring that all children attend school and including a new academic curriculum. This implementation will be phased over several years as Filipino children begin attending school on a mandatory basis. This coming first semester school year 2015-2016 will be the last enrollment of freshmen in college because of implementation of K to 12 in school year 2016-2017. By school year 2016-2017, there will be freshmen enrollees in this scenario many colleges and universities will drop the student population. In this case, the administration of JPCD wants to forecast the number of enrollees this coming first semester school year 2014-2015. The result of this forecasting will be the basis for the number of instructor hired in each programs.

Objectives of the StudyThe objectives of this forecasting study are as follows: 1. To determine the expected total number of enrolment and number of teachers of:1.1 2nd semester s.y. 2015-20161.2 1st semester s.y. 2016-20171.3 2nd semester s.y 2016-20171.4 1st semester s.y. 2017-20181.5 2nd semester s.y.2017-20182. To determine the number of subjects, hours and rooms in morning session, afternoon session and evening session of 1st semester S.Y. 2015-2016

Result and DiscussionNumber of the enrollment first Semester 2015-2016Table 1 shows the statistics of enrollment academic year 2015-2016. Table 1.COURSE NO. OF ENROLLED 2015-2016 1ST SEM

1ST YR2ND YR3RD YR4TH YR5TH YRTotal

BSBAREGMM107554034236

FM61242219126

HRDM3417131478

MA0001313

SPMM2338450322

BSCRIM164834437328

BSCpE121022329

BSECE8587533

BSGEREG2719222512105

SP272422291103

BSHRM96353232195

BSTM5712278104

BSCS40217

BSITREG105422630203

SP110324424210

BSN2816202892

BSEDREGENGLISH107612814210

MATH361111967

MAPEH0041317

SPENGLISH1871049349433

MATH52283218130

MAPEH92635

BEEDREGGEN64462430164

SPED662721

SPGEN23112210466523

SPED232211763

TOTAL1779858647540213847

Forecasting of the enrollment from 2nd Semester 2015-2016 to 1st sem. 2017-2018Table 2 shows the statistics of number of enrollment academic year 2015-2016.Table 2. NO. OF ENROLLED 2015-2016 (Assume 10% decrease from 1st Sem. to 2nd Sem.)

COURSE1ST YR2ND YR3RD YR4TH YR5TH YRTotal

1st Sem.2nd Sem.1st Sem.2nd Sem.1st Sem.2nd Sem.1st Sem.2nd Sem.1st Sem.2nd Sem. 1st Sem.2nd Sem.

MM10796555040363431236212

REGFM6155242222201917126113

BSBAHRDM34311715131214137870

MA00000013121312

SPMM23321084765500322290

BSCRIM164148837544403733328295

BSCpE12111092222332926

BSECE87558776553330

BSGEREG2724191722202523121110595

SP27242422222029261110393

BSHRM9686353232293229195176

BSTM5751121127248710494

BSCS4400221176

BSITREG10595423826233027203183

SP11099322944402422210189

BSN28251614201828259283

ENGLISH10796615528251413210189

REGMATH363211101110986760

BSEDMAPEH00004413121715

SPENGLISH1871681049493844944433390

MATH5247282532291816130117

MAPEH009826233532

REGGEN6458464124223027164148

BEEDSPED656522762119

SPGEN231208122110104946659523471

SPED232122201110766357

TOTAL17791601858775647582542488212038473462

Table 3 shows the statistics of number of enrollment of 1st sem. academic year 2016-2017.Table 3. NO. OF ENROLLED 1ST SEM. 2016-2017

COURSE1ST YR2ND YR3RD YR4TH YR5TH YRTotal

1st Sem.2nd Sem.1st Sem.2nd Sem.1st Sem.2nd Sem.1st Sem.2nd Sem.1st Sem.2nd Sem.1st Sem.2nd Sem.

MM965036182

REGFM55222097

BSBAHRDM31151258

MA0000

SPMM210765291

BSCRIM1487540263

BSCpE1192224

BSECE757625

BSGEREG2417202384

SP2422202692

BSHRM863229147

BSTM51112486

BSCS4026

BSITREG953823156

SP992940168

BSN25141857

ENGLISH965525176

REGMATH32101052

BSEDMAPEH0044

SPENGLISH1689484346

MATH472529101

MAPEH0088

REGGEN584122121

BEEDSPED55212

SPGEN20811094412

SPED21201051

TOTAL1601775586573019

Table 4 shows the statistics of number of enrollment of 2nd sem. academic year 2016-2017.Table 4.` NO. OF ENROLLED 2ND SEM. 2016-2017 (Assume 10% decrease from Ist sem to 2nd sem)

COURSE1ST YR2ND YR3RD YR4TH YR5TH YRTotal

1st Sem.2nd Sem.1st Sem.2nd Sem.1st Sem.2nd Sem.1st Sem.2nd Sem.1st Sem.2nd Sem.1st Sem.2nd Sem.

MM9686 5045 3632 182164

REGFM5550 2220 2018 9787

BSBAHRDM3128 1514 1211 5852

MA00 00 00 00

SPMM210189 7668 55 291262

BSCRIM148133 7568 4036 263237

BSCpE1110 98 22 22 2422

BSECE76 55 76 65 2523

BSGEREG2422 1715 2018 2321 8476

SP2422 2220 2018 2623 9283

BSHRM8677 3229 2926 147132

BSTM5146 1110 2422 8677

BSCS44 00 22 65

BSITREG9586 3834 2321 156140

SP9989 2926 4036 168151

BSN2523 1413 1816 5751

ENGLISH9686 5550 2523 176158

REGMATH3229 109 109 5247

BSEDMAPEH00 00 44 44

SPENGLISH168151 9485 8476 346311

MATH4742 2523 2926 10191

MAPEH00 00 87 87

REGGEN5852 4137 2220 121109

BEEDSPED55 55 22 1211

SPGEN208187 11099 9485 412371

SPED2119 2018 109 5146

TOTAL16011442 775698 586527 575130192718

Table 5 shows the statistics of number of enrollment of 1st sem. academic year 2017-2018.Table 5.` NO. OF ENROLLED 1ST SEM. 2017-2018

COURSE1ST YR2ND YR3RD YR4TH YR5TH YRTotal

1st Sem.2nd Sem.1st Sem.2nd Sem.1st Sem.2nd Sem.1st Sem.2nd Sem.1st Sem.2nd Sem.1st Sem.2nd Sem.

MM86 45 131

REGFM50 20 70

BSBAHRDM28 14 42

MA0 0 0

SPMM189 68 257

BSCRIM133 68 201

BSCpE10 8 2 20

BSECE6 5 6 17

BSGEREG22 15 18 55

SP22 20 18 60

BSHRM77 29 106

BSTM46 10 56

BSCS4 0 4

BSITREG86 34 120

SP89 26 115

BSN23 13 36

ENGLISH86 50 136

REGMATH29 9 38

BSEDMAPEH0 0 0

SPENGLISH151 85 236

MATH42 23 65

MAPEH0 0 0

REGGEN52 37 89

BEEDSPED5 5 10

SPGEN187 99 286

SPED19 18 37

TOTAL1442 701 442187

Table 6 shows the statistics of number of enrollment of 2nd sem. academic year 2017-2018.` NO. OF ENROLLED 2ND SEM. 2017-2018 (Assume 10% decrease from Ist sem to 2nd sem)

COURSE1ST YR2ND YR3RD YR4TH YR5TH YRTotal

1st Sem.2nd Sem.1st Sem.2nd Sem.1st Sem.2nd Sem.1st Sem.2nd Sem.1st Sem.2nd Sem.1st Sem.2nd Sem.

MM77 41 118

REGFM45 18 63

BSBAHRDM25 13 38

MA0 0 0

SPMM170 61 231

BSCRIM120 61 181

BSCpE9 7 2 18

BSECE5 5 5 15

BSGEREG20 14 16 50

SP20 18 16 54

BSHRM69 26 95

BSTM41 9 50

BSCS4 0 4

BSITREG77 31 108

SP80 23 103

BSN21 12 33

ENGLISH77 45 122

REGMATH26 8 34

BSEDMAPEH0 0 0

SPENGLISH136 77 213

MATH38 21 59

MAPEH0 0 0

REGGEN47 33 80

BEEDSPED5 5 10

SPGEN168 89 257

SPED17 16 33

TOTAL1297 633 391969