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ICIC
I S
ecurit
ies –
Retail E
quit
y R
esearch
Result
Update
February 12, 2020
CMP: | 520 Target: | 580 (12%) Target Period: 12-18 months
Oberoi Realty (OBEREA)
HOLD
FY21E launches to hold key…
Oberoi Realty’s (ORL) sales volumes grew 5.3% YoY (11.3% QoQ growth)
to 1.55 lakh square feet (lsf) in Q3FY20. The company clocked sales value of
| 303.3 crore and achieved | 584.9 crore collections in Q3FY20. Revenues
were flattish YoY at | 527.4 crore. EBITDA margins expanded 30 bps QoQ
to 43.6%. Overall, PAT grew 7.5% YoY to | 148.2 crore.
Sales volumes de-grow 20.5% in 9MFY20
Sales volumes grew 5.3% YoY (11.3% QoQ growth) to 1.55 lsf on account
of lower sales at Eternia, Enigma and Three Sixty West projects. Sky City
project recorded strong sales momentum with 65,326 sq ft (42 units) sold
with a total sales value of | 100.4 crore in Q3FY20. Overall, no new launches
and weak demand dynamics in the sector have impacted the company’s
sales performance, which de-grew 20.5% YoY to 5.3 lsf in 9MFY20.
Furthermore, with no new launches planned in Q4FY20, we lower ORL’s
sales volume estimates to 0.7 msf, 1.7 msf in FY20E, FY21E, respectively.
Goregaon, Thane launches further postponed to Q1FY21E
ORL launched Maxima in October, 2019 and received a good response to
the project. The Thane land parcel of ~60 acres could potentially help the
company come up with total development of ~12 msf. ORL plans to start a
residential project that could be launched by H1FY21E end. The Thane
development could additionally include a small retail asset, hotel, school and
possibly a commercial asset. The project is being conceptualised on the
lines of Oberoi Garden City. Secondly, Exquisite-III, Goregaon is also
expected to be launched by H1FY21E end.
Strong ramp up in annuity portfolio to drive rental income
ORL clocked 8% YoY growth in lease revenues to | 91.6 crore in Q3FY20.
Commerz-II has achieved 100% occupancy at an average lease rate of
| 133/sq ft per month, thus generating lease revenues worth | 31.2 crore in
Q3FY20. On the new developments front, the Borivali mall is expected to
commence in Q4FY21E, while the I-Ven mall in Worli is expected to
commence around Q2FY22E. ORL has already started construction of
Commerz-III that is expected to be completed by FY22E end. Such a strong
ramp up in annuity portfolio would lead to significant growth in rental
income, over the next three years.
Valuation & Outlook
ORL’s recent disappointment in sales volume as well as launches is reflective
of challenging market condition. Nonetheless, we like the company given
quality of land bank, healthy balance sheet & management bandwidth to
execute large projects. The company is strongly ramping up its annuity
portfolio that would provide stable secure cash flows. We roll our NAV to
FY21E and maintain HOLD on the stock with a revised target price of | 580.
Key Financial Summary
| crore FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E CAGR FY19-21E
Net Sales 1113.7 1265.4 2582.5 2127.8 2536.2 -0.9%
EBITDA 569.9 675.3 1155.4 873.9 1108.0 -2.1%
EBITDA Margin (%) 51.2 53.4 44.7 41.1 43.7
Net Profit 378.7 458.8 816.9 594.9 905.3 5.3%
EPS (|) 10.4 12.6 22.5 16.4 24.9
P/E (x) 47.9 39.5 22.2 30.5 20.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 29.5 25.6 14.2 18.8 14.6
RoE (%) 6.6 7.5 10.1 6.9 7.9
RoCE (%) 8.6 8.4 12.4 8.6 10.1
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Particulars
Particular Amount (| crore)
Market Capitalization 18,907.2
Total Debt 1,585.8
Cash 3,368.1
EV 17,124.9
52 week H/L (|) 642 / 438
Equity capital 363.6
Face value (|) 10.0
Key Highlights
Sales volumes grew 5.3% YoY,
11.3% QoQ to 1.55 lsf in Q3FY20
Launch of Exquisite Phase-III at
Goregaon, Thane project has been
further postponed to H1FY21E end
Borivali mall expected to be launched
in Q4FY21E
Maintain HOLD with target price of
| 580
Research Analyst
Bhupendra Tiwary, CFA
Harsh Pathak
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 2
ICICI Direct Research Result Update | Oberoi Realty
Exhibit 1: Variance Analysis
Q3FY20 Q3FY20E Q3FY19 YoY (Chg
%)
Q2FY20 QoQ
(Chg %)
Comments
Income from Operation 527.4 497.6 528.6 -0.2 491.4 7.3
Other Income 9.1 15.0 20.2 -54.9 13.6 -33.3
Operating Cost 261.5 248.8 297.5 -12.1 242.5 7.8
Employee cost 15.6 17.4 17.4 -9.9 17.1 -8.5
Other expenditure 20.4 22.4 25.7 -20.7 19.0 7.0
EBITDA 229.9 209.0 188.1 22.2 212.8 8.0
EBITDA Margin (%) 43.6 42.0 35.6 801 bps 43.3 29 bps
Depreciation 11.3 11.3 11.4 -1.1 11.3 -0.3
Interest 19.9 24.6 4.9 310.5 24.6 -18.9
PBT 207.8 188.1 192.0 8.3 190.6 9.0
Taxes 61.5 52.7 57.3 7.2 54.0 13.8
PAT 148.2 136.9 137.9 7.5 138.0 7.4
Key Metrics
Sales Volume (in sq ft) 155,150 168,000 147,276 5.3 139,454 11.3Sales volume de-growth on account of weak demand scenario
and slowdown in overall economy
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 2: Change in estimates
FY19 FY20E FY21E
(| Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change
Revenue 1265.4 2582.5 2280.2 2127.8 -6.7 3171.5 2536.2 -20.0
EBITDA 675.3 1155.4 959.5 873.9 -8.9 1401.5 1108.0 -20.9
EBITDA Margin (%) 53.4 44.7 42.1 41.1 -103 bps 44.2 43.7 -51 bps
PAT 458.8 816.9 733.7 594.9 -18.9 1026.1 905.3 -11.8
EPS (|) 12.6 22.5 20.2 16.4 -18.9 28.2 24.9 -11.8
FY18
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 3: Assumptions
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY20E FY21E FY21E Comments
Volume sold in msf New Earlier New Earlier
Goregaon 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5
Andheri/Borivali 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4
Worli 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
Mulund 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2
Pune 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
Thane 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6
Total 0.6 0.55 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.1 Incorporate 9MFY20 performance
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 3
ICICI Direct Research Result Update | Oberoi Realty
Conference Call Highlights
Q3FY20 operational performance: ORL’s sales volumes grew 5.3% YoY
(11.3% sequential growth) to 1.55 lakh sq ft (lsf) on account of lower
sales at Eternia, Enigma and Three Sixty West projects. The company
clocked sales value of | 303.3 crore and achieved | 584.9 crore
collections in Q3FY20
Launch pipeline: The company launched Maxima in October, 2019 and
has received a good response to the project. ORL is planning to launch
Exquisite Phase-III project at Goregaon, whose construction is under
way and Thane projects by H1FY21E end
Borivali project: The company has eight towers in Sky City Borivali
(3,000 apartments) out of which 1,800 units have been launched across
five towers and are under construction. ORL has sold ~1,200 units (66%
inventory) till now
Mulund properties: The company saw strong footfalls at the Mulund
project on the back of a good response to advertisement of the projects.
With the project now near completion, potential buyers are seeing
visibility with regard to possession that is expected to be given by FY21E
end. This drove response far more than what the management
expected. With this, it is optimistic of seeing higher activity at these
projects, going ahead
Three Sixty West project: ORL sold one unit (10,394 sq ft) with total sales
value of | 54.3 crore in Q3FY20. The company has applied for OC, which
is expected to be received in early Q1FY21E. This could lead to increase
in footfalls of potential buyers that could lead to a further increase in
sales volumes at this project, going ahead
Thane project: At Thane, the company aims to start a residential project
and will additionally include retail, hotel, school and possibly
commercial assets. The land parcel of ~60 acres would potentially help
the company come up with a total development of ~12 msf. The
company is conceptualising project on the lines of Oberoi Garden City.
However, it may not have massive retail, because of proximity of a major
retail mall from this development
Investment properties: Oberoi Mall reported good revenue growth by
5.2% YoY to | 40.9 crore mainly on account of 5.3% YoY rental rate
growth to | 255/sq ft per month in Q3FY20. The company reported
100.0% occupancy at Commerz-II, which aided 38.2% YoY growth in
revenues to | 31.2 crore at a rental rate of | 133/sq ft per month in
Q3FY20. ORL has already started construction of Commerz-III, which is
expected to be completed by FY22E end
Upcoming annuity portfolio: The Borivali mall is expected to commence
in Q4FY21E while the I-Ven mall in Worli is expected to commence
around Q2FY22E. Furthermore, the Ritz-Carlton hotel is expected to
receive approval by Q3FY21E end. Going ahead, ORL aims to take the
annuity asset income to anywhere between | 1,500 and | 1,800 crore
every year
Hospitality assets: The company is contemplating building a small 200
room hotel along with Commerz-III. Secondly, at Borivali, ORL will have
a four/five star hotel. The work has started along with the mall, since it
would sit on top of the mall
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 4
ICICI Direct Research Result Update | Oberoi Realty
Company Analysis
Exhibit 4: Quarterly sales volumes trend
1.52
1.31
2.87
2.39
1.47
1.45
2.40
1.39
1.55
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
Q3FY18
Q4FY18
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q4FY19
Q1FY20
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
(la
kh s
q ft)
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 5: Sales volumes to improve from here on
0.1 0.20.3
0.20.30.2
0.2
0.30.4
0.5
0.2 0.1
0.10.1
0.2
0.1 0.1
0.10.1
0.2
0.0
0.6
0.6 0.6
0.80.7
1.7
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Goregaon Andheri/Borivali Worli Mulund Pune Thane
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 6: Quarterly average realisation trend
23,464
23,464
22,644
18,186
23,464
19,632
22,644
16,20123,464
19,632
22,644
15,33223,464
19,632
22,644
16,837
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Goregaon
(Exquisite)
Goregaon
(Escquire)
Andheri Overal l
(| per s
q ft)
Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 7: Annual realisation trend across projects
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Goregaon
(Exquisite)
Goregaon
(Escquire)
Mulund Borivali Overal l
(| per s
q ft)
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 5
ICICI Direct Research Result Update | Oberoi Realty
Exhibit 8: Ongoing residential projects operational metrics
Particulars Q3FY20 Q2FY20 Q1FY20 Q4FY19 Q3FY19
Area Booked (sq ft)
Oberoi Esquire 26872 18772 63204 46700 29865
Oberoi Exquisite 17601 - - - 1690
Three Sixty West 10394 36127 1821 24420 -2052
Maxima 13803 - - - -
Prisma 2602 9171 8004 - -
Eternia 11730 18470 20260 9970 21840
Enigma 6822 11841 22541 12580 20738
Sky City 65326 45073 124138 51508 75195
Total 139,454 239,968 145,178 147,276
Sales Value (| crore)
Oberoi Esquire 59.3 41.4 124.1 97.8 66.7
Oberoi Exquisite 35.5 - - - 4.4
Three Sixty West 54.3 150.2 11.5 105.1 (13.8)
Maxima 21.9 - - - -
Prisma 5.1 19.4 16.4 - -
Eternia 17.1 23.6 27.1 14.8 32.3
Enigma 9.8 15.8 34.3 17.5 32.3
Sky City 100.4 72.5 187.7 83.9 119.7
Average Realization for the quarter (|/sq ft)
Oberoi Esquire 22,053 22,045 19,631 20,942 22,334
Oberoi Exquisite 20,180 - - - 26,133
Three Sixty West 52,233 41,581 - 43,053
Maxima 15,853 - - - -
Prisma 19,666 21,125 20,528 - -
Eternia 14,546 12,789 13,382 14,818 14,788
Enigma 14,302 13,297 15,234 13,872 15,566
Sky City 15,372 16,075 15,119 16,281 15,921
Project Completion (%)
Oberoi Esquire 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Oberoi Exquisite 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Three Sixty West * * * * *
Maxima *
Prisma 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Eternia 58.0 54.0 49.0 42.0 34.0
Enigma * * * * *
Sky City 68.0 61.0 56.0 49.0 40.0
Inventory as on Date (sq ft)
Oberoi Exquisite 104044 121645 121645 121645 121645
Three Sixty West 1682460 1692854 1728981 121645 1755222
Maxima 281301 0 0 0 0
Prisma 16977 19579 28750 36754 36754
Eternia# 930680 548000 566470 586730 434690
Enigma# 1097906 850010 861851 884392 662419
Sky City# 1046884 811358 838591 962729 954134
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 6
ICICI Direct Research Result Update | Oberoi Realty
Exhibit 9: Leasing trend
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
0.7 0.80.5 0.5
0.60.6
0.5
0.5
0.5 0.5
0.9 0.80.9
1.0
1.1
1.3
1.5 1.6
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
(m
n s
q ft)
Commerz I Commerz II Phase I Oberoi Mall
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 10: Leasing revenues trend
48 47 47 46 45 42 35 39
123 12487
94 94
100
111
151
161174
135147 150
173
204
276
320337
0
75
150
225
300
375
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
(| crore)
Commerz I Commerz II Phase I Oberoi Mall
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 11: Hotel revenue trend
128.0126.6
128.7
137.1 137.9
152.7
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
(| crore)
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 12: Westin’s operating profit trend
41.6
43.6
42.0
49.6
49.9
56.8
32.5
34.5
32.7
36.236.2
37.2
27
30
33
36
39
42
0.0
15.0
30.0
45.0
60.0
75.0
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
(%
)
(| crore)
EBITDA Margins (RHS)
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 7
ICICI Direct Research Result Update | Oberoi Realty
Exhibit 13: Operational trend in Oberoi’s rental and hospitality portfolio
Particulars Q3FY20 Q2FY20 Q1FY20 Q4FY19 Q3FY19
Oberoi Mall (Retail Property)
Operating Revenue (| crore) 40.9 40.1 39.6 39.0 38.9
EBITDA margin (%) 95.4 94.1 95.5 95.9 95.5
Occupancy (%) 96.9 96.6 96.6 96.7 96.9
Realisation (|/sqft/month) 255 250 247 243 242
Commerz I (Commercial Space)
Operating Revenue (| crore) 6.7 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.4
EBITDA margin(%) 94.0 94.7 94.9 97.1 94.8
Occupancy (%) 50.6 77.0 77.4 77.4 77.7
Realisation (|/sqft/month) 143 145 141 141 140
Commerz II Phase I (Commercial Space)
Operating Revenue (| crore) 31.2 30.3 29.9 25.7 22.6
EBITDA margin(%) 95.5 95.7 93.5 92.7 90.8
Occupancy (%) 100.0 96.9 95.7 74.4 63.7
Realisation (|/sqft/month) 133 133 143 136 141
The Westin Mumbai Garden City
(Hospitality)
Operating Revenue (| crore) 38.4 31.4 32.1 37.2 36.9
EBITDA margin(%) 39.8 32.1 32.0 39.2 37.1
Average Room Rate (|) 10148 8588 8946 9905 9712
Occupancy (%) 79.3 78.3 79.9 84.3 80.2
RevPAR (|) 8094 6717 7148 8360 7775
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 8
ICICI Direct Research Result Update | Oberoi Realty
Financial story in charts
Exhibit 14: Revenue trend
1,113.7 1,265.4
2,582.5
2,127.8
2,536.2
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
(| crore)
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 15: EBITDA margin trend
51.2
53.4
44.7
41.1
43.7
35
40
45
50
55
60
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
(%
)
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 16: PAT trend
378.7 458.8 816.9 594.9 905.3
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
(| crore)
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 9
ICICI Direct Research
Result Update | Oberoi Realty
Exhibit 17: Return ratios trend
8.6
8.4
12.4
8.6
10.1
6.6 7.5
10.1
6.9
7.9
0
4
8
12
16
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
(%
)
RoCE RoNW
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 10
ICICI Direct Research
Result Update | Oberoi Realty
Valuation & Outlook
ORL’s recent disappointment in sales volume as well as launches is reflective
of challenging market conditions. Nonetheless, we like the company given
quality of land bank, healthy balance sheet and management bandwidth to
execute large projects. The company is strongly ramping up its annuity
portfolio, which would provide stable secure cash flows. We roll our NAV to
FY21E and maintain HOLD with a revised target price of | 580/share.
Exhibit 18: Valuation
Location Type Status Saleable Area ( in
mn sq ft)
NAV NAV
Multiple
Value (| cr) |/share
Goregaon 10.1 9,325.2 9,325.2 256.5
Oberoi Mall Retail Completed 0.6 2,106.8 1.0 2,106.8 57.9
Commerz I Commercial Completed 0.4 482.7 1.0 482.7 13.3
Westin Hotel Completed 0.4 1,106.3 1.0 1,106.3 30.4
Exquisite I Residential Ongoing 1.5 212.3 1.0 212.3 5.8
Exquisite II Residential Ongoing 1.5 427.8 1.0 427.8 11.8
Commerz II Phase I Commercial Ongoing 0.7 1,287.0 1.0 1,287.0 35.4
Exquisite III Residential Planned 1.9 901.6 1.0 901.6 24.8
Commerz II Phase II Commercial Planned 1.7 2,688.9 1.0 2,688.9 74.0
Oberoi International school Social Infrastructure Ongoing 0.3
Education complex Planned 0.9
Hospital Planned 0.4
Andheri/Khar/Borivali 3.1 5,266.5 5,266.5 144.8
Oberoi Maxima Commercial Ongoing 0.3 294.9 1.0 294.9 8.1
Oberoi Prisma Residential Ongoing 0.7 18.1 1.0 18.1 0.5
Oberoi Splendour IT park Commercial Planned 0.1 93.0 1.0 93.0 2.6
Oberoi Splendour school Social Infrastructre Planned 0.4 14.7 1.0 14.7 0.4
Borivali Residential Ongoing 4.5 2,613.4 1.0 2,613.4 71.9
Borivali Mall Planned 1.6 2,232.5 1.0 2,232.5 61.4
Worli 3.6 3,102.0 3,102.0 85.3
Oasis Residential Residential Ongoing 2.3 1,158.7 1.0 1,158.7 31.9
Oasis Hospitality Hotel Ongoing 0.3 681.9 1.0 681.9 18.8
I-Ventures Mall Planned 1.0 1,261.4 1.0 1,261.4 34.7
Thane Residential Planned 10.2 3,069.0 1.0 3,069.0 84.4
Mulund 3.2 1,273.0 1,273.0 35.0
Eternia Residential Ongoing 1.6 722.1 1.0 722.1 19.9
Enigma Residential Ongoing 1.6 442.7 1.0 442.7 12.2
Mulund Commercial Commercial Planned 0.1 108.1 1.0 108.1 3.0
Pune 1.3 98.5 98.5 2.7
Sangam city - Residential Residential Planned 0.8 35.2 1.0 35.2 1.0
Sangam city - Commercial Commercial Planned 0.3 33.7 1.0 33.7 0.9
Sangam city - Retail Retail Planned 0.3 29.7 1.0 29.7 0.8
Net cash/ (Debt) (923.4) 1.0 (923.4) (25.4)
Total 31.6 21,210.9 1.0 21,210.9 583
Rounded off Target price 580
111.9 1.0 111.9 3.1
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 11
ICICI Direct Research
Result Update | Oberoi Realty
Exhibit 19: Recommendation History vs. Consensus
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Feb-20Nov-19Aug-19May-19Feb-19Nov-18Aug-18May-18Mar-18Dec-17Sep-17Jun-17Mar-17
(%
)(|)
Price Idirect target Consensus Target Mean % Consensus with BUY
Source: Bloomberg, Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 20: Top 10 Shareholders
Rank NameLatest Filing
Date
% O/SPosition
(m)
Change
(m)
1 Oberoi Vikas 30-Jun-19 58.55 212.9 0.0
2 R S Estate Developer 30-Jun-19 9.16 33.3 0.0
3 Invesco Ltd 11-Feb-20 4.52 16.4 0.1
4 Fmr Llc 31-Dec-19 2.11 7.7 1.4
5 Franklin Resources 10-Feb-20 2.05 7.5 -1.2
6 Wellington Managemen 30-Jun-19 1.65 6.0 0.9
7 Stichting Depost Apg 30-Jun-19 1.54 5.6 0.8
8 Fidelity Inv Trust F 30-Jun-19 1.50 5.5 0.4
9 L&T Mutual Fund 31-Dec-19 1.19 4.3 0.0
10 Vanguard Group 31-Dec-19 0.98 3.6 0.0
Source: Reuters, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 21: Shareholding Pattern
(in %) Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19
Promoter 67.7 67.7 67.7 67.7 67.7
FII 25.4 25.4 26.1 26.1 26.1
DII 4.5 4.5 3.9 3.9 3.9
Others 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 12
ICICI Direct Research
Result Update | Oberoi Realty
Financial summary
Exhibit 22: Profit and loss statement | crore
(Year-end March) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Net Sales 1,265.4 2,582.5 2,127.8 2,536.2
Other Operating Income 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Operating Income 1,265.4 2,582.5 2,127.8 2,536.2
Growth (%) 13.6 104.1 -17.6 19.2
Operating Costs 467.9 1,247.2 1,087.5 1,253.5
Employee Expenses 67.2 73.4 70.4 73.9
Other Expenses 55.1 106.6 95.9 100.7
Total Operating Expenditure 590.1 1,427.1 1,253.9 1,428.2
EBITDA 675.3 1,155.4 873.9 1,108.0
Growth (%) 18.5 71.1 -24.4 26.8
Depreciation 49.1 44.0 48.2 54.1
Interest 6.9 19.4 87.7 123.1
Other Income 26.6 78.8 41.7 47.4
PBT 645.9 1,170.7 779.8 978.3
Prior Period Adjustments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Tax 190.7 360.7 195.0 244.6
PAT before profit from associates 455.2 810.0 584.9 733.7
Minoriy Interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Profit from associates 3.6 6.9 10.0 171.6
PAT 458.8 816.9 594.9 905.3
EPS (|) 12.6 22.5 16.4 24.9
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 23: Cash flow statement | crore
(Year-end March) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Profit after Tax 458.8 816.9 594.9 905.3
Depreciation 49.1 44.0 48.2 54.1
Interest 6.9 19.4 87.7 123.1
Others -19.8 -71.7 -51.7 -219.0
Net Increase in Current Assets -452.8 296.2 -332.3 -102.8
Net Increase in Current Liabilities -224.3 -995.7 422.5 330.4
Net cf from operating activities -202.2 145.6 769.2 1,091.0
(Purchase)/Sale of Fixed Assets -77.3 -170.6 -735.7 -769.9
Others -19.8 -71.7 -51.7 -219.0
Net cf from Investing Activities -588.3 -645.8 -690.1 -550.9
Inc / (Dec) in Equity Capital 1.7 1,182.7 0.0 0.0
Inc / (Dec) in Loan Funds 854.6 -110.3 0.0 0.0
(Payment) of Dividend & Div. Tax -81.7 -81.9 -89.2 -135.8
Interest paid -99.6 -151.6 -87.7 -123.1
Net cf from Financing Activities 675.0 838.9 -176.9 -258.9
Net Cash flow -115.5 338.8 -97.8 281.2
Opening Cash/Cash Equivalent 235.9 92.8 431.5 333.8
Closing Cash/ Cash Equivalent 120.4 431.5 333.8 615.0
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 24: Balance sheet | crore
(Year-end March) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Equity Capital 339.6 363.6 363.6 363.6
Preference Capital 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Reserve and Surplus 5,752.8 7,665.6 8,171.2 8,940.7
Total Shareholders funds 6,092.4 8,029.2 8,534.8 9,304.3
Total Debt 1,694.0 1,585.8 1,585.8 1,585.8
Total Liabilities 10,225 11,129 12,057 13,157
Assets
Gross Block 1,123.5 1,252.5 1,302.5 1,352.5
Less Accumulated Depreciation 147.0 189.9 238.1 292.2
Net Block 976.5 1,062.5 1,064.3 1,060.2
Capital WIP 112.5 125.1 810.8 1,530.7
Total Fixed Assets 1,089.0 1,187.7 1,875.1 2,591.0
Goodwill on consolidation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Investments 2,424.2 2,942.8 2,942.8 2,942.8
Inventory 4,246.7 4,165.5 4,413.5 4,538.8
Debtors 181.3 109.4 225.2 266.4
Loans and Advances 1,874.8 1,946.6 1,915.0 1,851.4
Cash 116.7 425.3 333.8 615.0
Other Current Assets 146.2 216.4 216.4 216.4
Total Current Assets 6,565.7 6,863.2 7,103.9 7,488.0
Creditors 2,437.9 1,512.7 1,935.2 2,265.6
Provisions 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.8
Net Current Assets 4,127.4 5,349.7 5,167.9 5,221.5
Deferred Tax Assets 145.8 134.8 134.8 134.8
Total Assets 10,225 11,128 12,057 13,157
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 25: Key ratios
(Year-end March) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Per share data (|)
EPS 12.6 22.5 16.4 24.9
Cash EPS 14.0 23.7 17.7 26.4
BV 167.6 220.8 234.7 255.9
Operating profit per share 18.6 31.8 24.0 30.5
Cash Per Share 3.2 11.7 9.2 16.9
Operating Ratios (%)
EBITDA Margin 53.4 44.7 41.1 43.7
PBT / Net Sales 51.0 45.3 36.6 38.6
PAT Margin 36.0 31.4 27.5 28.9
Inventory days 1,225 589 757 653
Debtor days 52 15 39 38
Creditor days 703 214 332 326
Return Ratios (%)
RoE 7.5 10.1 6.9 7.9
RoCE 8.4 12.4 8.6 10.1
RoIC 12.6 18.6 14.0 18.6
Valuation Ratios (x)
P/E 41.2 23.1 31.8 20.9
EV / EBITDA 26.7 14.8 19.7 15.3
EV / Net Sales 14.3 6.6 8.1 6.7
Market Cap / Sales 14.9 7.3 8.9 7.5
Price to Book Value 3.1 2.4 2.2 2.0
Solvency Ratios (x)
Debt / EBITDA 2.5 1.4 1.8 1.4
Debt / Equity 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
Current Ratio 2.6 4.3 3.5 3.0
Quick Ratio 0.9 1.5 1.2 1.0
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 13
ICICI Direct Research
Result Update | Oberoi Realty
Exhibit 26: ICICI Direct coverage universe (Real Estate)
CMP M Cap
(|) TP(|) Rating (| Cr) FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E
Oberoi Realty (OBEREA) 520 580 Hold 18,907 22.5 16.4 24.9 22.2 30.5 20.0 14.2 18.8 14.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 10.1 6.9 7.9
The Phoenix Mills (PHOMIL) 715 870 Buy 10,950 24.4 21.9 24.8 26.0 32.0 28.9 14.8 14.4 13.1 3.2 2.9 2.6 10.7 8.7 9.0
Brigade Enterprises (BRIENT) 236 275 Buy 4,281 11.7 9.6 4.7 20.1 24.7 50.3 10.5 10.9 10.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 11.1 8.9 4.3
P/E (x)
Sector / Company
EPS (|) EV/EBITDA (x) P/B (x) RoE (%)
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 14
ICICI Direct Research
Result Update | Oberoi Realty
RATING RATIONALE
ICICI Direct endeavors to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its
stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold,
Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined
as the analysts' valuation for a stock
Buy: >15%
Hold: -5% to 15%;
Reduce: -15% to -5%;
Sell: <-15%
Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]
ICICI Direct Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC,
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 15
ICICI Direct Research
Result Update | Oberoi Realty
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