Oakland Mayor's Race, Oakland Jobs And Housing Coalition Polls

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DBR Oakland General Survey Page 1

FINAL RESULTS: Oakland Voter Survey Sample Size=400; Margin of Error=4.9% City Council District 2 Sample Size=161; Margin of Error=7.7% City Council District 4 Sample Size=133; Margin of Error=8.5% City Council District 6 Sample Size=153; Margin of Error=7.9% Interview Dates: September 2nd 8th, 2014 Respondents: Voters living in the City of Oakland who are likely to vote in November 2014, consisting of the following:

- Base Sample of 400 registered voters living in the City of Oakland; Margin of Error=4.9%. - District 2: 150 total (About 50 voters from base sample; 100 voters in oversample); Margin of Error=8.0%. - District 4: 150 total (About 75 voters from base sample; 75 voters in oversample); Margin of Error=8.0%. - District 6: 150 total (About 50 voters from base sample; 100 voters in oversample); Margin of Error=8.0%.

Vote History consists of filling one of the following criteria:

a. Voted in 11/12 and at least one other election from 5/9 on b. Voted in 6/14 c. Registered after 6/14

Hello. This is __________________________ from ___________, an independent public opinion research firm. May I please speak with (NAME ON SAMPLE SHEET)? We are conducting a short research survey of local issues in your area and would like to ask you some questions. This survey may be monitored for quality assurance purposes. (IF ASKED HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE, RESPOND: About 12 minutes.) (IF NECESSARY, SAY, "We are only interested in your opinions and are definitely not selling anything.")

SECTION 1. SCREENING, MOOD, ISSUES

ALL VOTERS

1. First, have I reached you today on a cell phone or a landline?

CELL PHONE 39 LAND LINE 61

IF CELL PHONE, FOLLOW-UP: 2. Are you in a safe place where you can take a survey over your cell phone?

YES 100

3. Are you employed as a news reporter, an elected official, staff to an elected official, or as a high level

employee of local government?

NO 100

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4. This November, there will be a General Election in which voters will choose candidates for Mayor, Governor, Congress, and other offices and ballot measures. What are the chances that you will vote in that election? Will you definitely vote, will you probably vote, are the chances about 50-50, will you probably not vote, or will you definitely not vote?

DEFINITELY 91 PROBABLY 9

5. In general, how do you think things are going in Oakland are things moving in the right direction, or are

things off on the wrong track?

RIGHT DIRECTION 41 WRONG TRACK 44 DONT KNOW 15

6. Would you say that the overall quality of life in Oakland has become better in the past few years, become

worse, or stayed about the same?

BETTER 31 WORSE 21 STAYED THE SAME 46 DONT KNOW 2 PREFER NOT TO SAY

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SECTION 2. MAYORAL ASK

BASE SAMPLE ONLY 8. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job Jean Quan is doing as Mayor? (FOLLOW-UP: Is that

strongly or somewhat?)

APPROVE, STRONG 6 31%

APPROVE, SOMEWHAT 25 DISAPPROVE, SOMEWHAT 25

57% DISAPPROVE, STRONG 32 DONT KNOW 9 PREFER NOT TO SAY 3

9. In 2014, Mayor Jean Quan will be running for re-election. If that election were held today, would you vote

to re-elect Quan or would you vote for somebody else to replace Quan?

RE-ELECT 16 REPLACE 69 DONT KNOW 14 PREFER NOT TO SAY 1

Now I am going to read you the names of some public figures and groups. For each I read, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the person or group. If you have not heard of the name, just say so and we will move on. RANDOMIZE IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE, FOLLOW-UP: Is that strongly un/favorable or just somewhat?

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NO OPINION SUMMARY

Strong Some-what

Some-what

Strong Heard of,

No Opinion

Have Not Heard Name

Favor-able

Unfavor-able

10. Mayor of Oakland Jean Quan 7 26 28 33 5 1 33 61

11. Businessperson and University Trustee Bryan Parker

5 14 5 3 18 55 19 8

12. Government and Law Professor Joe Tuman

13 23 7 1 13 43 36 8

13. Oakland City Councilmember Libby Schaaf

12 25 5 4 20 34 37 9

14. Civil Rights Attorney Dan Siegel 9 26 7 8 17 33 35 15

15. Oakland City Auditor Courtney Ruby

9 19 3 3 16 50 28 6

16. Oakland Councilmember at-large Rebecca Kaplan

20 34 15 9 12 10 54 24

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17. As you may know, this November there will be an election for Oakland Mayor. If the election were held today, and the candidates were (READ LIST, RANDOMIZE) for whom would you vote as your first choice? Mayor of Oakland Jean Quan OR Businessperson and University Trustee Bryan Parker OR Government and Law Professor Joe Tuman OR Oakland City Councilmember Libby Schaaf OR Civil Rights Attorney Dan Siegel OR Oakland City Auditor Courtney Ruby OR Oakland Councilmember at-large Rebecca Kaplan OR READ LAST: Someone else

IF UNDECIDED, FOLLOW-UP: If you had to decide today, toward which candidate do you lean?

QUAN 16

17% UNDECIDED, LEAN QUAN 1 PARKER 4

5% UNDECIDED, LEAN PARKER 1 TUMAN 12

12% UNDECIDED, LEAN TUMAN

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19. ASK IF CHOICE MADE IN PREVIOUS QUESTION:

And which candidate would be your third choice? (REREAD REMAINING NAMES. RANDOMIZE)

QUAN 8 PARKER 6 TUMAN 9 SCHAAF 9 SIEGAL 10 RUBY 10 KAPLAN 12 SOMEONE ELSE 4 UNDECIDED 32

RANKED CHOICE VOTE

INITIAL 1ST PASS 2ND PASS 3RD PASS 4TH PASS 5TH PASS 6TH PASS

Kaplan 21 26 28 30 35 42 61

Quan 17 20 22 23 27 30 39

Tuman 12 14 15 19 21 28

Schaaf 10 12 14 15 17

Siegal 9 12 12 13

Ruby 7 9 9

Parker 5 7

UNDECIDED 19

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SECTION 3. DISTRICT 2 ASK

DISTRICT 2 VOTERS AND DISTRICT 2 OVERSAMPLE ONLY Now I am going to read you the names of some public figures. For each I read, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the person. If you have not heard of the name, just say so and we will move on. RANDOMIZE IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE, FOLLOW-UP: Is that strongly un/favorable or just somewhat?


Strong Some-what

Some-what

Strong Heard of,

No Opinion

Have Not Heard Name

Favor-able

Unfavor-able

20. Housing Policy Advisor Kevin Blackburn 4 9 3 1 13 70 13 4

21. Community College Trustee Abel Guillen 7 10 2 1 11 69 17 3

22. Retired Broadcast Journalist Dana King 22 25 5 0 16 32 47 5

23. Director Community Relations Ken Maxey

1 4 2 1 6 86 5 3

24. Public University Administrator Andrew Park

6 11 2 0 9 72 17 2

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25. As you may know, this November there will be an election for City Council in your district. If the election were held today, and the candidates were (READ LIST, RANDOMIZE) for whom would you vote as your first choice? Housing Policy Advisor Kevin Blackburn OR Community College Trustee Abel Guillen OR Retired Broadcast Journalist Dana King OR Director Community Relations Ken Maxey OR Public University Administrator Andrew Park


BLACKBURN 8

8% UNDECIDED, LEAN BLACKBURN 0 GUILLEN 10

10% UNDECIDED, LEAN GUILLEN 0 KING 27

30% UNDECIDED, LEAN KING 3 MAXEY 2

2% UNDECIDED, LEAN MAXEY

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RANKED CHOICE VOTE

INITIAL 1st PASS 2ND PASS

King 30 50 52

Guillen 10 17 17

Park 11 17 17

Blackburn 8 12 14

Maxey 2 4

UNDECIDED 39

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DISTRICT 4 VOTERS AND DISTRICT 4 OVERSAMPLE ONLY Now I am going to read you the names of some public figures. For each I read, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the person. If you have not heard of the name, just say so and we will move on. RANDOMIZE IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE, FOLLOW-UP: Is that strongly un/favorable or just somewhat?


Strong Some-what

Some-what

Strong Heard of, No

Opinion

Have Not

Heard Name

Favor-able

Unfavor-able

28. Executive and Finance Director Jill Broadhurst

6 17 1 0 22 54 23 1

29. Emergency Management Coordinator Paul Lim

1 4 0 0 7 88 5 0

30. Appointed School Board Member Annie Campbell Washington

4 10 2 1 12 71 14 3

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31. As you may know, this November there will be an election for City Council in your district. If the election were held today, and the candidates were (READ LIST, RANDOMIZE) for whom would you vote as your first choice? Executive and Finance Director Jill Broadhurst OR Emergency Management Coordinator Paul Lim OR Appointed School Board Member Annie Campbell Washington


BROADHURST 22

24% UNDECIDED, LEAN BROADHURST 2 LIM 5

5% UNDECIDED, LEAN LIM 0 WASHINGTON 15

17% UNDECIDED, LEAN WASHINGTON 2 UNDECIDED 28 WOULD ABSTAIN (VOL) 6 NO ANSWER/PREFER NOT TO SAY 20


And which candidate would be your second choice? (REREAD REMAINING NAMES. RANDOMIZE)

BROADHURST 18 LIM 12 WASHINGTON 17 UNDECIDED 26 WOULD ABSTAIN (VOL) 8 NO ANSWER/PREFER NOT TO SAY 19



BROADHURST 7 LIM 53 WASHINGTON 20 UNDECIDED 3 WOULD ABSTAIN (VOL) 7 NO ANSWER/PREFER NOT TO SAY 10

RANKED CHOICE VOTE

INITIAL 1st PASS

Broadhurst 24 52

Washington 17 37

Lim 5 11

UNDECIDED 54

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DISTRICT 6 VOTERS AND DISTRICT 6 OVERSAMPLE ONLY 34. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job Desley Brooks is doing as Council Member? (FOLLOW-

UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?)

APPROVE, STRONG 18 43%

APPROVE, SOMEWHAT 25 DISAPPROVE, SOMEWHAT 12

30% DISAPPROVE, STRONG 18 DONT KNOW 27 PREFER NOT TO SAY 0

35. In 2014, Councilmember Desley Brooks will be running for re-election. If that election were held today,

would you vote to re-elect Brooks or would you vote for somebody else to replace Brooks?

RE-ELECT 39 REPLACE 37 DONT KNOW 21 PREFER NOT TO SAY 3

Now I am going to read you the names of some public figures. For each I read, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the person. If you have not heard of the name, just say so and we will move on. RANDOMIZE IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE, FOLLOW-UP: Is that strongly un/favorable or just somewhat?


Strong Some-what

Some-what

Strong Heard of, No

Opinion

Have Not

Heard Name

Favor-able

Unfavor-able

36. Incumbent Desley Brooks 20 28 13 19 11 9 48 32

37. Administrator, Investor and Minister Michael Johnson

3 8 4 2 11 72 11 6

38. Public Policy Analyst Shereda Nosakhare 8 11 2 1 12 66 19 3

39. Commercial Corridor Manager James Moore

2 8 2 3 13 72 10 5

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40. As you may know, this November there will be an election for City Council in your district. If the election were held today, and the candidates were (READ LIST, RANDOMIZE) for whom would you vote as your first choice? Incumbent Desley Brooks OR Administrator, Investor and Minister Michael Johnson OR Public Policy Analyst Shereda Nosakhare OR Commercial Corridor Manager James Moore


BROOKS 40

42% UNDECIDED, LEAN BROOKS 2 JOHNSON 9

11% UNDECIDED, LEAN JOHNSON 2 NOSAKHARE 15

16% UNDECIDED, LEAN NOSAKHARE 1 MOORE 4

4% UNDECIDED, LEAN MOORE 0 UNDECIDED 20 WOULD ABSTAIN (VOL) 2 NO ANSWER/PREFER NOT TO SAY 5


And which candidate would be your second choice? (REREAD REMAINING NAMES. RANDOMIZE)

BROOKS 11 JOHNSON 17 NOSAKHARE 17 MOORE 17 UNDECIDED 22 WOULD ABSTAIN (VOL) 4 NO ANSWER/PREFER NOT TO SAY 12



BROOKS 13 JOHNSON 22 NOSAKHARE 16 MOORE 22 UNDECIDED 13 WOULD ABSTAIN (VOL) 5 NO ANSWER/PREFER NOT TO SAY 9

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RANKED CHOICE VOTE

INITIAL 1st PASS

Brooks 42 57

Nosakhare 16 22

Johnson 11 16

Moore 4 5

UNDECIDED 27

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SECTION 7: DEMOGRAPHICS

Thank you for your patience. Now some last questions about yourself for statistical purposes. 43. First, what is your age? (IF REFUSE: Can you tell us approximately how old you are?) (CODE 99 FOR

FINAL REFUSE.)

UNDER 30 7 30-39 12 40-49 16 50-64 30 65+ 32 PREFER NOT TO SAY 3

44. How long have you lived in Oakland? (CODE 0 FOR LESS THAN ONE YEAR, 99 FOR REFUSE.)

5 Years or Less 12 6-10 Years 11 11 to 15 Years 11 More than 15 Years 65 DONT KNOW 0 PREFER NOT TO SAY 1

45. Do you have children under the age of 18 living at home?

(IF RESPONDENT ASKS ABOUT PART-TIME CHILDREN, INCLUDE AS YES)

YES 21 NO 79 REFUSE 0

46. Do you currently own or rent your home or apartment?

OWN 65 RENT 32 OTHER 3 REFUSE

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48. Which of the following ethnic groups describes you? You can stop me when Ive read your group. (READ LIST.)

White or Caucasian 49 Black or African American 30 Latino, Hispanic, or Mexican 7 Chinese 2 Filipino 1 Vietnamese

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53. Are you or is anyone in your household a member of a labor union or employee association? (FOLLOW-UP: Is that you, a member of your household, or both?)

YES, SELF ONLY 15

26% YES, HOUSEHOLD MEMBER ONLY 8 YES, BOTH SELF AND HOUSEHOLD 3 NOBODY IN HOUSEHOLD 73 REFUSE 1

54. Please stop me when I read the category that best describes your total household income before taxes for

the year 2013. IF REFUSE: I understand this is personal, but just want to remind you that this question is important for this research project and your answers are 100% confidential.

Under $25,000 13 $25,000 to just under $50,000 17 $50,000 to just under $75,000 15 $75,000 to just under $100,000 15 $100,000 to just under $150,000 15 $150,000 or more 16 DONT KNOW 2 REFUSE 7

55. And do you consider yourself heterosexual, bisexual, gay or lesbian?

HETEROSEXUAL 83 BISEXUAL 3 GAY/LESBIAN 6 OTHER (____) 0 DON'T KNOW 2 REFUSE 6

Thats all the questions I have. Thank you for your time.

56. RECORD GENDER:

FEMALE 53 MALE 47

57. RECORD PARTY:

DEMOCRAT 71 REPUBLICAN 7 NO PARTY PREFERENCE 18 MINOR PARTY 4

Oakland Mayor's Race, Oakland Jobs And Housing Coalition Polls

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