NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference...2014/06/02  · Los Angeles -Long...

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NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference Amanda W. Hite STR President & COO

Transcript of NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference...2014/06/02  · Los Angeles -Long...

Page 1: NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference...2014/06/02  · Los Angeles -Long Beach, CA 2,971 3.1% Houston, TX 3,259 4.3% Seattle, WA 1,889 4.6% Denver, CO 1,981

NYU International Hospitality Industry

Investment Conference

Amanda W. Hite STR

President & COO

Page 2: NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference...2014/06/02  · Los Angeles -Long Beach, CA 2,971 3.1% Houston, TX 3,259 4.3% Seattle, WA 1,889 4.6% Denver, CO 1,981

Supply

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Middle East Leads in Development

2.5

1.0

5.9

1.2

3.8

1.1

0

2

4

6

Central- SouthAmerica

Europe Middle East Africa Asia Australia &Oceania

Supply % Change, April 2014 YTD

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Supply Growth Creeps Up

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Total U.S., Supply % Change, 12 MMA 1/1990 – 4/2014

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U.S. Pipeline: Construction Accelerates

Phase 2014 2013 % Change

In Construction 103 72 42.6%

Final Planning 130 101 29.3%

Planning 150 157 -4.8%

Under Contract 383 330 16%

Total U.S. Pipeline, by Phase, ‘000s Rooms, April 2014 and 2013

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Under Construction Rooms Mostly In Middle Segments

4.4 8.6

38.9

31.3

5.3

0.9

14.0

Luxury UpperUpscale

Upscale UpperMidscale

Midscale Economy Unaffiliated

U.S. Pipeline, Rooms Under Construction , ‘000s Rooms, by Scale, April 2014

68%

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10 of Top 26 Markets With 2%+ Of Supply

U.S. Pipeline, Top 26 Markets, U/C Rooms as % of Existing Supply, March 2014

Market Rooms UC % Of Existing

Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA 1,167 2.2%

Dallas, TX 1,785 2.3%

Washington, DC-MD-VA 2,500 2.3%

Boston, MA 1,250 2.4%

Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA 2,971 3.1%

Houston, TX 3,259 4.3%

Seattle, WA 1,889 4.6%

Denver, CO 1,981 4.8%

Miami-Hialeah, FL 2,442 5.0%

New York, NY 13,230 12.0%

Page 8: NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference...2014/06/02  · Los Angeles -Long Beach, CA 2,971 3.1% Houston, TX 3,259 4.3% Seattle, WA 1,889 4.6% Denver, CO 1,981

Total United States Supply Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year), 2014 - 2015

U.S. Supply Outlook

2014 2015 1.2% 1.6%

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Demand

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Middle East Leads Demand Growth

1.5

3.5

9.9

-2.3

4.3 3.7

-5

-2

1

4

7

10

Central- SouthAmerica

Europe Middle East Africa Asia Australia &Oceania

Demand % Change, April 2014 YTD

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U.S., Room Demand % Change, 12 Month Moving Average: 89 to March 14

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2009 2011 2013

Feb ’11 7.7%

Sept ’09 -7.1%

Demand Growth is Steady

Apr ‘14 2.5%

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U.S. Chain Scales, Demand % Change, Twelve Months Ended April 2014

1.4

2.8

4.9

2.3 2.5

1.6

-2

0

2

4

6

Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale UpperMidscale

Midscale Economy

Upscale Leads Demand Growth

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Transient Occupancy Share Increases

43% 57%

2005

Group

Transient

36%

64%

2013

Group

Transient

*Transient and Group Occupancy as Share of Total OCC, 2005 and 2013

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Occupancy Segmentation by Class: Groups Finally Returning?

1.1

2.7

1.5 1.4

Luxury Upper Upscale

Transient % Change Group % Change

*Segmentation Occupancy % Change, by Class, April 2014 YTD

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Total United States Demand & Occupancy Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year) 2014 - 2015

U.S. Demand Outlook

2014 2015 Demand 2.6% 2.2% Occupancy 1.4% 0.6%

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Average Daily Rate

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Select Global Regions ADR Percent Change (In US Dollars except Europe in Euros), April 2014 YTD

-3.9

1.9 3.0

-1.4 -2.0

-8.3

Middle East Leads in Rate Growth

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Steady ADR Growth As Room Demand Growth Continues

-10

-5

0

5

2008

Demand % ChangeADR % Change

-4.5%

3.7%

Total U.S., ADR & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1/2008 – 4/2014

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Scales: ADR Growth Healthy, Especially For Luxury

4.9

4.2 4.0

3.2 3.3

3.9

Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy

Total U.S. Chain Scales: ADR % Change, April 2014 YTD

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Total United States Actual ADR ($) by Customer Segment, YTD 2010- April 2014

$165.88

$159.93

$175.84

$163.63

$183.93

$169.19

$193.45

$175.76

$203.19

$180.33

$150

$160

$170

$180

$190

$200

Transient Group

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

NOTE: Data is for luxury and upper upscale classes only.

Strong Transient Room Rate Growth

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April 2014 YTD ADR % Change in Top 25: 5 Best / 5 Worst Performing Markets

Market ADR $ ADR % Change Nashville, TN 113.22 13.2

San Francisco/San Mateo, CA 187.54 10.3 Denver, CO 105.78 7.8

Miami/Hialeah, FL 227.68 6.7 Boston, MA 156.51 6.2

New York, NY 227.39 1.6 Norfolk/Virginia Beach, VA 74.16 0.7

New Orleans, LA 160.22 0.1 Chicago, IL 112.11 -0.4

Washington, DC-MD-VA 146.29 -4.3

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Total United States ADR Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year) 2014 - 2015

U.S. ADR Outlook

2014 2015 4.2% 4.3%

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RevPAR

Page 24: NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference...2014/06/02  · Los Angeles -Long Beach, CA 2,971 3.1% Houston, TX 3,259 4.3% Seattle, WA 1,889 4.6% Denver, CO 1,981

RevPAR growth in 3 of the four regions

April 2014 YTD, RevPAR % Change in USD, Europe in Euro

- 2.8%

+ 6.1%

+ 5.3%

+ 4.4%€

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Positive RevPAR Growth For The Foreseeable Future

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

1990 2000 2010

-16.8%

-2.6%

-10.1%

9% 8.6%

Total U.S., RevPAR % Change, 12 MMA 1/1990 – 4/2014

65 Months 44 Mo. 112 Months

Page 26: NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference...2014/06/02  · Los Angeles -Long Beach, CA 2,971 3.1% Houston, TX 3,259 4.3% Seattle, WA 1,889 4.6% Denver, CO 1,981

April 2014 YTD RevPAR % Change in Top 25: 5 Best / 5 Worst Performing Markets

Market RevPAR % Change Nashville, TN 20.3 Denver, CO 20.1

San Francisco/San Mateo, CA 14.2 St. Louis, MO-IL 13.6

Dallas, TX 12.1

Norfolk/Virginia Beach, VA 2.5 New Orleans, LA 0.8

Chicago, IL 0.1 New York, NY 0.0

Washington, DC-MD-VA -4.3

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2014 – 2015 Source: STR & TE

Outlook

2014 Forecast

2015 Forecast

Supply 1.2% 1.6%

Demand 2.6% 2.2%

Occupancy 1.4% 0.6%

ADR 4.2% 4.3%

RevPAR 5.7% 4.9%

U.S. Forecast Summary

Page 28: NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference...2014/06/02  · Los Angeles -Long Beach, CA 2,971 3.1% Houston, TX 3,259 4.3% Seattle, WA 1,889 4.6% Denver, CO 1,981

Total U.S., Estimated Total Revenue and Profitability* 2008 – 2013

146.0

125.5 133.4

146.5 154.8

163.0

36.7 24.5 28.2

33.9 37.2 41.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

In B

illio

ns

Revenue Net Income

*Representing all U.S. hotels that collectively provide room revenue data to STR. Net Income defined as House Profit less management fees, property taxes, insurance, and an imputed 4.0% reserve for replacement expense.

New Peaks Reached in 2013

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Key Takeaways • Industry is Profitable

• Supply Growth Accelerates

• First Quarter Demand Stronger than Expected • Group Demand: Finally Some Growth

• STR Forecast: Positive, Robust Growth

Page 30: NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference...2014/06/02  · Los Angeles -Long Beach, CA 2,971 3.1% Houston, TX 3,259 4.3% Seattle, WA 1,889 4.6% Denver, CO 1,981

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