NYIR.2013-103 US Industry Monitor 1H14 · Cardboard Box Shipments Forecast: Gradual recovery ahead...

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Improved underwriting results U U S S I I N N D D U U S S T T R R Y Y M M O O N N I I T T O O R R 2014 First Half Issue April 1, 2014 OVERVIEW】~U.S. Industries Lacking Strength, but Expected to Remain Solid The U.S. economy slightly decelerated in the fourth quarter of 2013 to 2.6%, after a strong growth of 4.1% in the third quarter. In the first quarter of 2014, high level of GDP growth is unlikely in light of severe cold temperatures and snowfall. Nevertheless, the U.S. corporate performance remains generally solid, and the business environment is expected to continue to steadily improve going forward. However, some downward pressures remain such as further monetary tapering by the Fed and geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. The Outlook for Major Sectors and Indicators ENERGY: Crude oil prices remain elevated on the back of increasing demand around the globe. However, the WTI-Brent price gap is growing again, reflecting increased U.S. tight oil production. Recent natural gas prices are trending upward from the impact of cold weather. But supply surplus conditions remain unchanged, and the prices are expected to start declining. MATERIALS: Ethylene prices are expected to remain on an upward track, on the back of favorable demand and anticipated decrease in supply from scheduled turnarounds. An upward trend is expected to continue in steel production on the back of solid demand. INDUSTRIALS: Construction demand is favorable in residential, hotel, office building and commercial properties. Machinery orders are driven by favorable orders of industrial machineries for the domestic market. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY/STAPLES: U.S. new car sales are expected to slowdown in terms of year-on-year growth, but the growth phase continues. The industry could see a growth of 3- 5% for 2014. Retailing is expected to remain relatively solid, but the gap among retail format and companies could grow wider. HEALTHCARE: The growth rate of pharmaceutical shipment is expected to remain elevated, as the impact of major drug patent expirations recedes. FINANCIALS: Loan demand remains solid and charge-off and delinquency rates remain low. Nevertheless, a significant improvement in business environment is unlikely for the near term. IT: Sales of smartphones and tablet devices remain robust, but the growth rate could slow down as the penetration rate reaches higher. Meanwhile, a moderate recovery trend is expected to continue for semiconductor shipments. NYIR.2013-103

Transcript of NYIR.2013-103 US Industry Monitor 1H14 · Cardboard Box Shipments Forecast: Gradual recovery ahead...

Page 1: NYIR.2013-103 US Industry Monitor 1H14 · Cardboard Box Shipments Forecast: Gradual recovery ahead as U.S. economy improves Marginal improvement in box usage growth in 2H13. Box shipments

Improved underwriting results

UUSS IINNDDUUSSTTRRYY MMOONNIITTOORR 2014 First Half Issue

April 1, 2014

【OVERVIEW】~U.S. Industries Lacking Strength, but Expected to Remain Solid

The U.S. economy slightly decelerated in the fourth quarter of 2013 to 2.6%, after a strong growth of 4.1% in the third quarter.

In the first quarter of 2014, high level of GDP growth is unlikely in light of severe cold temperatures and snowfall. Nevertheless, the U.S. corporate performance remains generally solid, and the business environment is expected to continue to steadily improve going forward. However, some downward pressures remain such as further monetary tapering by the Fed and geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.

《The Outlook for Major Sectors and Indicators》

ENERGY: Crude oil prices remain elevated on the back of increasing demand around the globe. However, the WTI-Brent price gap is growing again, reflecting increased U.S. tight oil production. Recent natural gas prices are trending upward from the impact of cold weather. But supply surplus conditions remain unchanged, and the prices are expected to start declining.

MATERIALS: Ethylene prices are expected to remain on an upward track, on the back of favorable demand and anticipated decrease in supply from scheduled turnarounds. An upward trend is expected to continue in steel production on the back of solid demand.

INDUSTRIALS: Construction demand is favorable in residential, hotel, office building and commercial properties. Machinery orders are driven by favorable orders of industrial machineries for the domestic market.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY/STAPLES: U.S. new car sales are expected to slowdown in terms of year-on-year growth, but the growth phase continues. The industry could see a growth of 3-5% for 2014. Retailing is expected to remain relatively solid, but the gap among retail format and companies could grow wider.

HEALTHCARE: The growth rate of pharmaceutical shipment is expected to remain elevated, as the impact of major drug patent expirations recedes.

FINANCIALS: Loan demand remains solid and charge-off and delinquency rates remain low. Nevertheless, a significant improvement in business environment is unlikely for the near term.

IT: Sales of smartphones and tablet devices remain robust, but the growth rate could slow down as the penetration rate reaches higher. Meanwhile, a moderate recovery trend is expected to continue for semiconductor shipments.

NYIR.2013-103

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Sector Industry Indicator Latest

DataPage

Crude Oil Prices and Global Demand / US Tight Oil Production

Jan 2014 Mar 2014

2 Energy Oil & Natural Gas

Natural Gas Prices and Production / Inventories

Dec 2013 2

Chemicals Ethylene Price Dec 2013 3

Container & Packaging Cardboard Box Shipments Jan 2014 3

Steel Price/ Production / Import Jan 2014 Metals & Mining

Aluminium LME Spot Price/Inventory Jan 2014 4

Materials

Paper & Forest Products Paper Price Feb 2014 4

Construction & Engineering Total Construction Expenditures Dec 2013 5

Aerospace & Defense Commercial Aircraft Orders and Backlog 4Q 2013 5

Industrial Machinery Machinery New Order Dec 2013 6

Freight & Shipping Railroad Traffic 4Q 2013 6

Industrial

Airlines Airline Revenue Passenger Miles Nov 2013 7

Auto & Auto parts Light Vehicle Sales Production Jan 2014 7

Media Ad Revenue Growth and breakdown figures 4Q 2013 8

Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure Growth in Hotel Occupancy and Average Daily Room Rate (ADR)

4Q 2013 8 Consumer

Discretionary

Consumer Discretionary Retailing

Same Store Sales (Dept. Stores, Apparel Specialty, Off-price, High-end)

3Q 2013 9

Consumer Staples

Food & Staples Retailing Same Store Sales (Supermarket, Supercenter, Drug Stores)

4Q 2013 9

Healthcare Services Hospital Volume Growth/CPI Dec 2013/ Jan 2014

10

Pharmaceuticals Pharmaceuticals Shipment/PPI Dec 2013/ Jan 2014

10 Healthcare

Medical Equipment Electromed - Instrument Manufacturing/PPI Dec 2013/ Jan 2014

11

Non-bank Finance Companies Loan Growth Credit Performance

Dec 2013 11

Capital Markets Average Daily Trading Volumes Mutual Fund Flows

Dec 2013 12

Insurance L/H Premiums, Consideration & Deposits Net Investment Income

3Q 2013 12

Insurance P/C Combined Ratio Net Investment Income

3Q 2013 13

Financials

Real Estate & REITS SS NOI Growth Vacancy Rates

4Q 2013 13

IT Solution PC Shipment Media Tablet and Smartphone Shipments

4Q 2013 14 Information Technology

IT Components Semiconductor Shipment Equipment Bookings

Dec 2013/ Jan 2014

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Telecoms Telecommunications Wireless Subscription Wireless Average Revenue Per User (ARPU)

4Q 2013 15

Utilities Utilities Electricity Retail Sales / Wholesale Price 3Q 2013 Jan 2014

15

Appendix1 - Macro Indicators 4Q 2013 16

Appendix2 - Exchange Rate Jan 2014 17

Note: The "FORECAST" period added in this edition is a short-term outlook (6 months-1 year).

Table of Contents

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(Source: Bloomberg) (Unit: Mbpd)

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US Tight Oil Production

Natural Gas Inventories

(Source: Bloomberg) (Units: bcf)

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Crude Oil Prices and Demand

(Source: Bloomberg) (Unit: %, $/barrel)

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$160

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World Crude Demand Growth (1 year m.a.) (left)

WTI (right)

Brent (right)

1. Crude Oil Prices and Global Demand / US Tight Oil Production

Forecast: Despite elevated pricing, US tight oil will drive a spread in Brent-WTI

Chronic spread in Brent-WTI. Although crude pricing remains elevated, the Brent-WTI spread has again widened, averaging $8- $12 per barrel in recent months. Rail, trucking, barge and pipeline capacity has expanded significantly, but these transport options continue to be challenged in keeping up with the growth in US tight oil production.

World crude demand remains strong. At an average of 91.3 mmbpd, global crude demand in 2013 continued its expansion, growing 1.2 mmbpd over the year before. Non-OECD countries continue to drive global crude demand growth, representing 90% of the increase in 2013.

Global supply growth led by non-OPEC production. Non-OPEC liquids production increased 1.3 mmbpd in 2013, driven primarily by North America, offsetting minor declines in OPEC production.

US tight oil production continues to soar. Tight oil production in the US has grown to over 4 mmbpd by the March 2014, increasing 25%, by 800 mbpd from a year ago. This rapid pace of growth is expected to continue in 2014 as well. The Permian Basin leads in regional production at 1.4 mmbpd, followed by the Eagle Ford at 1.3 mmbpd and the Bakken at 1.0 mmbpd.

2. Natural Gas Prices and Production / Inventories

Forecast: Natural gas production will continue to rise, responding to higher price

Natural gas prices breaking out. Natural gas prices have risen above $4/mmbtu for the first time since the summer of 2011. This was driven primarily by harsh winter weather, causing significant spikes in gas demand, particularly in the US Northeast.

Production drives higher. US gas production ended 2013 at 76.4 bcfpd, 2.6% higher than at the end of 2012. This relentless growth in US gas production has been heavily driven by the expansion of tight oil and NGL production, which results in significant quantities of associated gas.

Natural gas inventories plunge. Natural gas inventories declined to 1,348 bcf, 23% below the five year low. These storage drawdowns were driven by the increased demand for gas used for heating during the exceptionally cold weather that gripped the US, during the past winter months.

Pricing will drive a demand and supply response. Higher gas prices are expected to drive a near-term switch in power generation to increased coal use, instead of natural gas throughout 2014. Upstream operators will continue expanding gas production, using hedged prices at higher levels. The combined effect should bring natural gas pricing lower, although the floor could be higher than the record lows of recent years.

Natural Gas Prices and Production

(Source: Bloomberg) (Units: $/mmbtu, bcfpd)

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Production (right)

Natural Gas Price (left)

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(Source: Bloomberg, IHS Chemical) (Unit: Cents / lb)

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Ethylene Price (Delivered pipeline, Gulf)

(Source: RISI) (Unit: Mil sq ft)

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Shipments Growth (yoy)

3. Ethylene Price Forecast: Prices to firm up amid rising demand and tighter supply

Ethylene prices declined in 3Q13 but rallied in 4Q13. Despite several unplanned outages occurring along the Gulf coast in the summer, ethylene supply remained long because of high inventories and softer demand caused by production outages in polyethylene. The ethylene price rebound late last year reflects higher ethane feedstock cost. Ethane prices surged in December as cold winter temperatures pushed up natural gas prices and led to high ethane rejection (ethane left in the natural gas stream). With feedstock costs outpacing the rise in ethylene prices, U.S. ethylene margins weakened.

Stronger demand and tighter supply will support an uptrend in prices. ISM’s Purchasing Managers Index rose to an average 56.2% in 2H13, indicating that a pick-up in domestic manufacturing activity is underway. Ethylene volumes will be further boosted by increased exports of polyethylene. Ethylene supply will tighten as three crackers are taken off-line for planned turnarounds during April and May.

4. Cardboard Box Shipments Forecast: Gradual recovery ahead as U.S. economy improves

Marginal improvement in box usage growth in 2H13. Box shipments fell 0.1% in 2H13 after recording a 0.4% drop in 1H13 as high inventories declined slowly. However, the usage growth should gradually recover in 2014 as the U.S. economy improves, although weather disruptions could result in softer growth temporarily. Box demand is closely aligned with non-durable goods production.

Capacity expansion for packaging products is in store. In response to the severe distress in the newsprint segment, some paper companies are converting newsprint mills to packaging applications. Therefore, producers will have to continue to take higher-cost containerboard mills off the line to avoid downward pricing pressures. Looming increases in Chinese capacity could influence the U.S.’s export market into the medium-term.

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Aluminum LME Spot Price/Inventory

(Source: Bloomberg) (Unit: $/t , '000t)

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LME Spot Price

(Source: Pulp & Paper Week) (Unit: $/Ton)

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S teel Price, Production & Import

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Production(left) Imports(left)Hot Rolled Prices(right)

5. Steel Price, Production & Import, Aluminium LME Spot Price/Inventory

Forecast: Steel production increases as U.S. economy improves; aluminium oversupply

Steel:

2H13 saw a production increase and higher prices. U.S. steel production rose 1.7% as auto demand expanded and construction improved, resulting in a modest price increase. Steel imports rose in 2H13 and the U.S. price premium could result in greater imports in 1H14. In an effort to reduce imports, many U.S. steel producers have filed anti-dumping cases against various countries, with further developments expected this year.

U.S. steel industry could continue to recover. The expansion of Chinese steel production has led to global overcapacity and held international prices low. Nevertheless, U.S. steel production could increase steadily as current inventories are low and as demand gradually improves, and this should allow prices to stabilize. Greater market consolidation and production discipline should also provide support to the industry.

Aluminum:

Lower regional demand in 2H13. U.S. and Canadian aluminum demand accelerated its decline in 2H13, falling 5.3%. High global inventories and soft global demand growth have kept prices depressed. Although the validity of aluminium warehousing by financial institutions has come into focus, inventories are likely to remain high in the near term due to weak demand.

The market is in a state of oversupply. Despite volume cuts and capacity closures in some regions, the global oversupply situation continues amid growing Chinese production, and prices will remain low. Up and mid-stream markets will continue to struggle with profitability in this scenario while downstream markets will expand thanks to the new adoption of aluminum in the auto industry.

6. Paper Price Forecast: Prices continue relative stability as suppliers focus on disciplined production

The overall U.S. paper market fell 0.5% in 2013. This is mainly a result of the digitalization of newspapers and magazines. Nonetheless, most paper production has been consolidated into the hands of a few large suppliers who have reduced output to match demand and this has enabled prices to remain relatively stable.

Suppliers try to maintain pricing discipline. Prices for newsprint and linerboard continued their divergence that began in 2012, with newsprint falling further in 2013. Uncoated free sheet (UFS) prices fell through most of 2013 on weak demand, but have started to rebound due to capacity closures. Linerboard should continue to outshine with solid demand and better pricing while other segments could struggle to keep pricing relatively stable as soft demand is likely through 1H14.

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(Source: U.S. Census Bureau) (Unit:Billion US$)

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ResidentialNon-Residential (Private)Non-Residential (Public)Growth (yoy)

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Backlog

Orders

Boeing Airbus Backlog

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7. Total Construction Expenditures Forecast: Sustained spending growth to continue

Residential construction, especially new multi-family housing, is driving construction spending growth. Its pace of 17.5% in 2H13 was modestly slower than the 18.9% pace a year earlier. The large single-family sector is picking up and beginning to outpace multi-family spending.

Public construction expenditure continued to be squeezed due to federal and state spending cutbacks amid efforts to close budget gaps. However, this squeeze was tempered by an uptick in spending on highways and streets, after steep cuts since the recession. As a result, the 2H13 slide in total public sector spending was just 0.2% YoY, compared to mid-single-digit declines previously.

Residential, lodging, office, and commercial expenditures will remain the main drivers of construction spending growth.

8. Commercial Aircraft Orders and Backlog Forecast: Surge in aircraft orders to stabilize

Aircraft orders rise to record high levels. New orders for commercial aircraft continue to pour in, powered by orders for widebodies from the Middle East and Asia Pacific to support long-haul routes and for narrowbodies by low cost carriers in Asia Pacific. Replacement demand for fuel-efficient aircraft is also strong.

Record backlogs expand further. Although both Boeing and Airbus have ramped up production, surging demand, coupled with fewer airlines cancelling orders and deferring deliveries, increased what were already record backlogs. Backlogs are now equivalent to 7.8 years of production, based on last year’s deliveries.

New orders will stabilize at their current high level. Decelerating economic growth in emerging countries, coupled with the challenge of financing new aircraft by airlines that have weak balance sheets, will lead to slower growth in aircraft orders.

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(Source: U.S. Census Bureau) (Unit: Billion US$, %)

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Ton-Miles (left)Growth Ratio (YoY) (right)

9. Machinery Order Forecast: Strong industrial sector to outweigh slower orders from construction

Machinery orders continued to pick up momentum in 2H13, advancing by 12.3% YoY, more than twice their speed in the first half. Strong volumes drove the growth, with machinery pricing remaining muted (PPI of 1.3%).

Industrial machinery powered the acceleration in new orders. This growth reflected the resurgence in the U.S. manufacturing sector, on the back of cost-advantaged feedstock enabled by shale, as reflected in the ISM’s PMI rising to 56.2% in 2H13, from 51% in 1H13.

Construction machinery orders lost most of their steam in 2H13. The slowdown was caused primarily by China, where cooling residential construction prompted increased caution in placing new orders. Increased competition from Chinese manufacturers both locally and in China’s export markets, notably Brazil and other emerging countries, further crimped U.S. manufacturers’ construction machinery orders.

10.Railroad Traffic Forecast: Steady growth ahead

Rail traffic accelerated YoY, with 2H13 ton-miles advancing by 3.5%, up from 2.2% a year earlier.

Shale-related commodities are powering most of the growth in rail traffic. Notably, they spurred a 10.6% growth in petroleum and petroleum product carloads in 2H13. However, mounting safety concerns and tight tank car supply threaten to slow this pace going forward.

Motor vehicle and parts traffic also remains strong, Shipments of new car models, coupled with recovering demand, underpinned a 5.6% growth in motor vehicle carloads in 2H13.

Agricultural commodities and coal were the weakest rail freight category in 2H13. While falling agricultural volumes were due to weak harvests caused by the drought, coal shipments fell victim to increased gas-fired power generation amid the shale gas boom.

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US Light Vehicle Sales (SAAR)

(Source: Ward's AutoInfoBank) (Unit:Millions,%)

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North America Light Vehicle Production

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11. Airline Revenue Passenger Miles Forecast: Airline traffic to accelerate

Airline traffic growth in 2H13 was powered by a YoY rebound in international air traffic, reflecting improved trends in business-related international air travel, especially to the Middle East, China, and Russia. European air traffic remained weak.

Domestic airline traffic advanced modestly in 2H13. While the improving economy underpinned positive air travel trends, the modest traffic pace reflected both the maturity of the U.S. market and disciplined capacity growth in the wake of airline consolidation and route streamlining. U.S. carriers achieved the highest load factors among all other regions in the world.

Airline traffic will pick up at a measured pace on the back of faster economic growth in the U.S. and a return to growth in Europe. Stronger air traffic, increased pricing power amid tight capacity management, and ancillary revenues will support solid top line growth.

12. Automobile Sales / Production Forecast: Production gets an extra boost from ongoing localization, as sales growth continues

2014 got off a slow start due to winter weather. U.S. light vehicle SAAR, which has been robust and averaged 15.5 million units over the past six months, was negatively affected by severe winter weather in the first months of 2014. January’s light vehicle SAAR came in at 15.2 million, down -1% y/y. It marked the first y/y decline since August 2010, when sales fell below a prior tally bolstered by the cash-for-clunkers program.

US auto sales approaching pre-recession levels. With the recovery entering its fifth year, vehicle sales have almost approached a normalized level and y/y growth has started to slow. The expansion will certainly continue this year, but growth won’t be as robust, with most forecasts in the 3-5% range, compared with 8% growth in 2013.

Chances of price wars seem slim amid high utilization rates. Pricing in the U.S. market has been trending upward for the last five years helped by greater supply discipline, new-model launches and strong residual values on used cars. While some automakers raised incentive spending in recent months to clear inventories, the chances of price wars seem remote with North American capacity utilization still in the mid-90% range as of 4Q 2013.

Auto production benefits from the near-sourcing trend. North American light vehicle production increased 5% in 2013 to reach 16.1 million units, the highest level since 2002, buoyed by strong auto sales combined with the moves by automakers to locally source more of their products in North America. Automakers have been adding capacity at their existing plants in the U.S. or building new plants in Mexico.

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U.S . Advertising Spend

(Source: Magna Global, Kantar Media) (Unit: Billion US$, %)

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Television Newspapers Magazines Digital (Internet)

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Occupancy Growth (yoy)

ADR Growth (yoy)

13. Ad Revenue Growth Forecast: Market set to benefit from political and Olympic television ad spend

U.S. advertising spend set to rise. Following a 1% increase in 2013, U.S. advertising spending is seen advancing in the mid-single digits during 2014, aided by higher TV spend related to the major sporting events of Winter Olympics and World Cup, as well as the U.S. mid-term elections. Without the impact of political and Olympic advertising, the normalized growth rate for the U.S. ad market would be 3% for both years.

TV ad spending stays steady. Despite a relatively saturated audience base, television ad spending remains resilient, increasing 2% during 2013, reflecting the immense value advertisers place on the television’s ability to influence mass audiences. TV is the largest ad medium in the U.S., accounting for nearly 50% of total mass media spending dollars.

Newspapers and magazines continue to face demand headwinds. During 2013, newspaper and magazine ad spend fell 6% and 8%, respectively, hurt by ongoing demand erosion, as readership audiences continue to migrate to cheaper digital competitors.

Digital ads gaining share. Digital ad spend increased 12% in 2013 and continues to be the biggest contributor to new advertising dollars. New platforms such as social networking, smartphones, and tablets are helping media companies expand their digital addressable audience. While growing rapidly, online digital ad spending still accounts for only one-eighth the size of TV ad spend.

14. Growth in Hotel Occupancy and Average Daily Room Rate (ADR)

Forecast: Pricing continues to offset lacklustre occupancy growth

Occupancy growth remains positive albeit lacklustre. Transient (business travellers) business demand should continue to improve on the back of improving global economic conditions, although group business remains relatively sluggish.

Growth in the supply of hotel rooms will likely remain constrained, which will support higher rates among stronger demand from travellers. Although construction pipelines are slowly becoming more active, property openings are likely still more than 24-36 months away.

Constraints remain however, given US budget uncertainty, the potential for a disorderly exit from monetary stimulus measures and slowing growth in emerging markets.

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(Source: Bloomberg) (Unit: YoY %)

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15. Consumer Discretionary Retailing (Same Store Sales)

Forecast: Acceleration expected, but has yet to emerge on the back of better economic stability

US retail sales are expected to accelerate assuming 2%-3% growth in US GDP, rising disposable incomes, a raised government debt ceiling, lower consumer debt burdens and an uneventful monetary stimulus unwind by the Federal Reserve.

Back-to-School and Holiday seasons disappointing as consumers have become savvy and come to expect large discounting and promotional activity. Severe weather will likely dampen early 2014 sales figures.

Segments continue their variable performance, with high-end department stores and specialty apparel showing continued growth declines due to muted consumer confidence and the uncertain economic recovery. Department stores continue to gain share given solid online strategies and innovative store-level initiatives. Off-price retailers continue to be the focus of cost-conscious shoppers.

Growth in online retailing continues to hamper traditional formats.

16. Food & Staples Retailing (Same Store Sales)

Forecast: Impact of generic conversions on drug stores to slow, supermarkets recovering

Supermarkets continue to improve competitively against Warehouse clubs, regaining some lost market share. Well-managed supermarkets will continue to see improvement as they continue to implement new strategies to increase customer traffic, transaction count and basket size through discounting and promotions.

Supercenters and Warehouse Clubs are still showing strong, albeit moderating revenue growth given an ongoing focus of consumers on prices. Discounters continue to grow their food businesses and expand small-store concepts, which drive higher operating margins.

Drug Stores are expected to see somewhat decelerating growth going forward as the ongoing impact of generic conversions from the patent cliff subside. Continued competition from discount retailers, who see prescriptions as a “loss leader” will also exert pressure on sales growth.

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10

(Source: BTMU, JPMorgan and Truven Health Analytics)

(1.5%)

(0.5%)

0.5%

1.5%

2.5%

3.5%

4.5%

4/09 4/10 4/11 4/12 4/13 4/14

Inpatient Admissions Growth (YoY)ER Volume Growth (YoY)

(Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics)

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

250

300

350

400

450

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

CPI - Medical Care ServicesGrowth Rate (YoY)

(Base Period: 1982-84=100)

(Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics)

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

200

250

300

350

400

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

PPI - Pharmaceutical and Medicine mfgGrowth Rate (YoY)

(Base: 12/82=100)

17. Hospital Volume Growth/CPI Forecast: Ongoing utilization weakness should be increasingly offset by benefits of reform

Utilization remains stubbornly variable. Although trending in a stable to slightly positive manner, utilization on a quarterly basis remains difficult to predict. Increasingly, analysts expect this to stabilize as the US economic recovery continues and insurance coverage broadens under the Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”).

Although the growth rate is slowing, pricing remains a good growth driver. Providers are able to maintain commercial pricing increases given relatively good local market control. Pricing for Obamacare coverage through the exchanges has now fallen into line at only a slight discount to existing commercial pricing. Providers and payors are crafting narrow networks of in-network facilities in an attempt at payor cost control, but placing more importance on provider networks.

Fiscal and deficit pressures continue to be the major overhang for the industry. In the ST, we expect reimbursement pressures to be somewhat more benign, as politically, Congress is interested in keeping providers supportive of healthcare reform. However, in the LT, as costs of insurance expansion are likely to grow with higher utilization and ongoing deficits keep the focus on cost controls, reimbursement is in danger of further cuts.

Expanded insurance coverage under Obamacare began on 1/1/14 and its positive benefits should layer into segment results through 2016.

18. Pharmaceutical Shipment/PPI Forecast: Acceleration on all fronts as impact of recent patent cliff continues to fade

Pharmaceutical shipments continue their recovery as the impact of the patent cliff recedes. Shipment growth is firmly on the upward swing as more new drugs are being approved in the wake of increasing R&D efficiencies and productivity.

Drug pricing has been somewhat more variable but remains intact. While there is no expectation of a return to pricing growth in the high-single digits, there is likely some more upside here given the introduction of newly approved branded (higher priced) drugs. Caps on pricing growth, however, are clearly still in place given overall government focus on fiscal/economic issues.

Sector profitability remains surprisingly resilient. General expectations that revenue losses driven by the patent cliff would cause concomitant declines in profitability never emerged. Companies focused on strong cost controls with a series of restructurings and downsizing of both R&D and sales & marketing infrastructures.

Strategic focus continues to shift towards higher-complexity segments and products. Companies continue to search for specific segments that have lower competitive pressures and can sustain higher differential pricing.

(Source: U.S. Census Bureau) (Unit: Billion US$)

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

Pharmaceutical Shipments

Growth Rate (YoY)

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11

(Source: U.S. Census Bureau) (Unit: Billion US$)

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

0

2

4

6

8

10

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

Value of Shipments Growth Rate (YoY)

(Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics)

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

116

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

PPI - Medical Equipment & SuppliesGrowth Rate (YoY)

(Base: 12/03=100)

Y/Y Growth in Managed Receivables

(Source: FRB)

-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%

Dec-12Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13

Consumer Real estate Business

Charge-offs

(Source: FRB) (Unit: %)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

C&I Loans

Credit Cards

Real Estate

19. Electromed–Instrument Manufacturing/PPI (Medical Equipment)

Forecast: Generally anemic outlook remains in place

Volume growth continues to be variable, but averaging to flat. Low utilization, a lack of innovative new products, continued customer consolidation and overall cost-control efforts on behalf of government and commercial payors continues to constrain domestic growth in MedTech. US and European growth is actually averaging slightly negative offset by positive growth in emerging markets.

Return to positive growth in shipment values is not likely to be sustainable. The new Medical Device Excise Tax (2.3% on revenues) continues to have a negative pull-through to pricing. Expectations that manufacturers would be able to pass on all or part of the new tax have proven incorrect, with a concomitant negative impact on pricing.

A weak industry pipeline with no breakthrough products and tighter regulatory processes continue to be additional restraints on sales growth. However, the number of product recalls is beginning to drop from recent higher-than-average levels.

Favourable structural underpinnings, including the concentration of most market segments in the hands of a small number of players and high barriers to entry help to somewhat mitigate growth headwinds.

20. Loan Growth and Credit Performance (Non-bank Financial Companies)

Forecast: Modest Loan Growth and Less Credit Improvement

Loan growth still positive, but headwinds remain. Non-bank finance companies remain focused on growth but continue to face headwinds including, tepid economic growth and elevated (but improving) unemployment. Managed receivables for Consumer (60% of total) and Business (29% of total) continue to modestly rise while real estate (only 11% of total) continues to decline, but at slower rate year-over-year.

Loan demand continues to improve for most categories. According to the Federal Reserve's January 2014 lending survey (4Q13 activity), loan demand continues to improve for auto, credit card, other consumer, CRE, and C&I loans while demand was weaker for residential mortgages. Lenders continue to ease underwriting standards.

Credit costs will be less of a tailwind. Charge-offs and delinquencies have continued to normalize, supported by improving economic conditions and job growth. Going forward, we expect credit costs to continue to decline, but the pace of improvement will continue to moderate. Lenders expect improvements in delinquency and charge-off rates during 2014 for most loan categories, with the exception of subprime auto loans.

In addition, competition will likely rise as companies grow their loan portfolios, which could result in a slight reversal in credit metric trends.

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12

U.S . Equity Trading Volumes

(Source: NYSE Euronext)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13

Ave

rag

e D

aily

Vo

lum

e (M

M)

Industry-Wide Mutual Fund Flows

(Source: ICI) (Unit: Billions US$)

($150)($125)($100)($75)($50)($25)

$0$25$50$75

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13

Premiums, Consideration & Deposit

(Source: SNL) (Unit: Billion US$)

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

0

50

100

150

200

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

Premiums, Consideration &Deposits ($)Y/Y Change (%)

Net Investment Income (1 yr. Mov Avg.)

(Source: SNL) (Unit: Billion US$)

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

Net Investment Income ($)

Y/Y Change (%)

21. Average Daily Trading Volumes Mutual Fund Flows (Capital Markets)

Forecast: Stabilizing trading volumes and positive mutual fund inflows

Trading volumes remain under pressure. Average daily trading volumes (ADV) declined 4% in 2013, after an 18% decline in 2012. In the near-term, we expect equity trading volumes to remain soft reflecting decreased market volatility, an uncertain economic outlook, and the new regulatory environment.

Industry flows remain positive in 2013. According to the Investment Company Institute (ICI), 2013 remains a positive year for investment funds as net inflows to long-term mutual funds were $153 billion for the year, but weaker than $196 billion of inflows in 2012.

Equity funds saw substantial inflows in 2013. Stock funds posted outflows of $153 billion in 2012 as risk-averse investors poured $304 billion into bond funds. However, sentiment shifted in 2013 as equity funds saw strong net inflows of $161 billion for the year versus net outflows of $83 billion from bond funds. Importantly, although flows to bond funds were positive for 1H13, there were nearly $177 billion of net outflows from bond funds in 2H13.

22. Premiums, Consideration & Deposits & Net Investment Income (Insurance L/H)

Forecast: Challenging premium growth and lackluster investment returns

Premium growth remains challenging. According to SNL, life insurance companies reported modest premium growth of 3.5% in 2012, but as of 3Q13 data have seen premiums decline 2.0% so far in 2013. Overall premium growth remains challenging. The market remains bifurcated at the product level with interest rate sensitive products (e.g. universal life and fixed annuities) underperforming given low interest rates and more market driven products (e.g. variable life and variable annuities) experiencing better growth.

Investment returns remain under pressure. Low interest rates (the 10-yr Treasury was 2.70% as of February 25, 2014) remain a significant headwind for the industry and continue to place downward pressure on investment income growth. While the 10-yr Treasury yield has increased from 1.87% a year ago, it has declined 33bps since the start of 2014. Furthermore, life insurance companies maintain prudent asset/liability management strategies. As part of this strategy, many companies have been actively restructuring their investment portfolios, as well as increasing their investments in higher-yielding, higher-risk assets, such as alternative investments, in order to partly offset the negative impact from low interest rates.

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13

Combined Ratio (1yr. Mov Avg.)

(Source: SNL) (Unit: %)

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

Deteriorate

Improve

4Q12 impacted by Superstorm Sandy

Net Investment Income (1 yr. Mov Avg.)

(Source: SNL) (Unit: Billion US$)

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

6

8

10

12

14

16

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

Net Investment Income

Y/Y Change (%)

U.S . REIT Y/Y SS NOI Growth by Sector

(Source: SNL and BTMU Research.) (Unit: %)

-6-4-202468

10

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13

Multifamily Industrial Office

Regional Malls Shopping Ctrs Self Storage

(Source: REIS)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14

Vacancy Rates

Apartment Office Retail Industrial

23. Combined Ratio & Net Investment Income (Insurance P/C)

Forecast: Improved underwriting results but lackluster investment returns

Underwriting results have been improving since Hurricane Sandy. P/C operating performance was solidly profitable in 2012 despite being adversely impacted by “Super Storm Sandy” and as of 3Q13 data profitability has been improving. Performance over the next year is expected to remain healthy, driven by growing premiums (at low-to-mid-single digits), which is generally at or above loss cost trends. Looking forward, a normalized level of catastrophe events should lead to a combined ratio of about 100% in 2014.

Pricing improvement may start to slow in 2014. Pricing continued to rise in 2013 following two years (2011 and 2012) of poor underwriting results. Going forward, pricing is expected remain on an upward trend; however, the pace and length of future improvement remains unclear as the industry is highly competitive and remains adequately capitalized.

Investment results adversely impacted by low rates. Investment results remain under pressure as a result of the low interest rate environment.

Note: The Combined ratio is a primary indicator of P/C insurers’ underwriting profitability. Calculation: losses incurred to premium earned plus underwriting expenses to premiums written after policyholders’ dividends.

24. U.S. REIT SS NOI Growth and Vacancy Rates (REITs)

Forecast: Continued recovery in operating fundamentals

REIT fundamentals continue to trend favorably. Same store (SS) net operating income (NOI) growth remains positive, supported by improving economic conditions and job growth, which have led to higher occupancy and rent growth. Nevertheless, some REIT subsectors have fared better, with self-storage and multifamily still outperforming other property types.

Vacancy rates continue to slowly improve.

o Multifamily: has benefited from favorable supply/demand dynamics, which has led to vacancy improvements and higher pricing in some markets. Both vacancy rates and rents are expected to improve modestly, but rental growth is expected to decelerate going forward given expanding supply, which is significant for some markets.

o Office: has benefitted from favorable employment trends and limited new supply; however, demand remains lackluster and vacancy rates remain elevated (though improving) relative to historical levels.

o Retail: vacancy rates overall continue to recover at a glacial pace. Nevertheless, class A malls and other properties located in high-quality locations continue to outperform neighborhood/community centers.

o Industrial: has been supported by favorable supply/demand and gradually improving economic conditions, which have led to improved occupancy.

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14

Worldwide Monthly Semiconductor Sales

(Unit: Billion US$,%) (Source: Semiconductor Industry Association)

-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

Others Americas

Americas YoY % change WW YoY % change

PC Shipment

(Source: Gartner) (Unit: Million,%)

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

0

20

40

60

80

100

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

USA WW-USUS YoY Growth WW YoY Growth

Connected Device Shipments

(Source: BI Intelligence, Gartner) (Unit: Millions)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

Smartphone Uni t Shipments

Media Tablet Unit Shipments

PC Unit Shipments

25. PC Shipment / Media Tablet and Smartphone Shipments

Forecast: PC market looks to bottom, while smartphone and tablet demand moderates

PC market remains weak, yet nearing bottom. Owing to continued tablet cannibalization and poor acceptance of the new Windows8 platform, the PC market experienced its worst decline in history during 2013, with unit shipments falling 10%. Although demand trends are expected to remain negative throughout the year, 2014 should mark a bottom for the PC industry, as new hybrid form factors and touch panel displays help to reinvigorate demand.

Smartphone demand trends strong, but moderating. Smartphone shipments rose 38% in 2013, exceeding the one billion unit level and passing feature phone volume for the first time ever. While demand trends remain strong, growth rates are expected to moderate in 2014, to near the 20% level, as a result of higher levels of smartphone saturation in most developed markets. The U.S. smartphone penetration was 65% at the end of 2013.

Tablet growth rates are peaking. While the tablet market has advanced at an extraordinary rate since its inception in 2010, the pace of growth has begun to decelerate reflective of the larger installed base of users in developed markets. Tablet shipments for 2013 totaled 217 million units, up a very strong 51% from 2012, but down from the 90% rate registered in 2012. The market will also face increased competition from hybrid laptop formats that can function as tablets, as well as from large-screen smartphones.

26. Semiconductor Shipment Equipment Bookings

Forecast: Demand signals point to early stages of mild recovery cycle

North American Semiconductor Equipment Bookings

(Source: SEMI) (Unit: Million US$, Ratio)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

Book-to-Bill Ratio (right axis)

Semiconductor Equipment Bookings (left axis)

Semi sales are on the rebound. Following a 3% decline in 2012, global semiconductor sales rebounded with 5% growth in 2013, to $306 billion. Importantly, quarterly growth rates showed a consistent upward trajectory as the year progressed, signaling the industry is likely at the beginning stages of a recovery cycle. As market participants have become more disciplined with inventory management, the current upcycle is expected to be less pronounced relative to historic standards.

Memory leads the way. Within the major product categories, memory is experiencing particularly rapid growth, up 18% in 2013, fueled by higher DRAM pricing amid a tight supply-to-demand climate. Meanwhile, logic and analog increased 5% and 2%, respectively, during 2013. The semi market as a whole is gradually lessening its dependence on consumer electronics and PC end markets by diversifying into the healthcare, industrial, and automotive segments.

Equipment bookings stay positive. North American semiconductor equipment bookings and billings improved throughout 2H13, with the December three-month average bookings coming in at the highest level since June 2012. These positive booking metrics point to a pick-up in equipment spending for 2014 as semi vendors increase manufacturing capacity to meet an expected increase in end market demand.

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15

Wireless Average Revenue Per User

(Source: Bloomberg) (Unit: US$, %)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

40424446485052545658

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

Data as % of ARPU Total Wireless ARPU

Retail Electricity Sales Growth by Sector

(Source: EIA) (Unit: YoY % Change)

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

Residential Commercial

Industrial Total

Wholesale Electricity Pricing

(Source: Intercontinental Exchange, EIA) (Unit: $/MWh)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

PJM West 1 year moving average

U.S. Wireless Subscriptions

(Source: SNL Kagan) (Unit: Million Persons, %)

-10%

0%

10%

20%

0

100

200

300

400

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

U.S. Wireless SubscribersYoY Growth

27. Wireless Subscription / Wireless ARPU Forecast: Market growth continues to shift to data services as the wireless market matures

U.S. wireless penetration nears saturation. The U.S. wireless market continues to show signs of maturation with a rising mobile penetration rate that equaled 110% at the end of 2013. Wireless subscriber growth was flat in 2013, compared to a 3% increase for 2012. As new subscribers become more challenging to generate, industry share gain is increasingly coming from existing customers switching between carriers.

Higher smartphone adoption drives ARPU. Wireless ARPU increased markedly during 2H13, fueled by strong data service growth reflective of higher smartphone penetration. Smartphones now account for more than 90% of postpaid phone sales. Increasing adoption of 4G handsets should provide a further boon to overall ARPU levels, as these devices enable faster data connection speeds that lead to higher data usage.

Carriers look to better monetize data usage. Data has become the primary growth driver for the industry, as operators look to monetize growing digital usage trends. The shared data plans of AT&T and Verizon have been particularly successful in attracting incremental revenue from connected data devices, with consumers opting to attach media tablets to existing data allotments. During 2013, data accounted for 45% of total wireless ARPU, up from 41% in 2012.

28. Electricity Retail Sales / Wholesale Price Forecast: Harsh winter weather results in near-term pricing spikes

Slight decline in sales. Total electricity sales fell by 0.8% y/y for the first nine months of 2013. A tepid economic recovery limited growth in residential and commercial sales, while industrial revenues declined.

Longer-term demand is muted. In the longer-term, electricity demand is expected to grow at a meagre rate of 1%, as the need for an essential commodity is mitigated by efficiency initiatives and demand response.

Gas is gaining share against coal. In the longer-term,

retirements of coal-fired generation will shift the grid towards natural gas, driven by increasingly stringent EPA regulations, which limit emissions from power plants. The abundance of shale gas in the U.S., and the relatively smaller carbon footprint, provide gas with a competitive advantage as fuel for the generation fleet.

Wholesale pricing will return to longer-term

averages from recent spikes. Wholesale pricing spiked throughout the Northeast US in the winter months, as extreme cold weather and chronic storms drove up the use of natural gas-fired peaking units. This resulted in a draw-down of natural gas inventories below the 5-year average and a jump in natural gas pricing to above $4.00 per mmbtu. Prices are expected to decline to longer-term averages, as natural gas resource potential remain abundant.

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16

(Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis) (Unit: %)

-10-8-6-4-202468

10

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

Real GDP % Ch.

(Source: Institute for Supply Management) (Unit: %)

30

40

50

60

70

80

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

Manufacturing Non-manufacturing

(Source: FRB) (Unit: index,%)

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

70

80

90

100

110

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

Industrial Production % Ch.

(Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor) (Unit: %)

-8-6-4-202468

1012

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

CPI PPI

(Source: The Conference Board) (Unit: index)

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

Consumer Confidence

(Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor) (Unit: %)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

Unemployment Rate

Appendix1: Macro Indicators

Real GDP Growth ISM

Industrial Production CPI・PPI

Consumer Confidence Index Unemployment Rate

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17

(Source: Bloomberg)

0.70

0.90

1.10

1.30

1.50

1.70

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 (Source: Bloomberg)

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

(Source: Bloomberg)

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

(Source: Bloomberg)

60

80

100

120

140

160

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

Appendix2: Exchange Rate

Euro British Pound

Canadian Dollar Japanese Yen

Opinions, views and projections in this document have been made by Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Corporate Research Division (New York) and do not necessarily reflect the view of other business units. They represent our perceptions at the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. This document has been prepared solely for the information purposes of professional investors and non-private customers of Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ and is not intended to constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ and its subsidiaries trade in securities, futures and other financial instruments and may have a position in any of the financial products, securities or instruments mentioned in this commentary. Information appearing in this document is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, we cannot guarantee its accuracy and no liability is accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from its use. Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ is regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Copyright © The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Limited 2014 No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted without the prior written permission of The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Limited.

Publisher:BTMU Corporate Research Division (New York) 1251 Avenue of the Americas New York NY 10020 U.S.A.

Tomoo Nishina +1-212-782- 5706 [email protected] Ari Bensinger 5704 [email protected] Mayuko Hiramatsu 5707 [email protected] Thang To 4038 [email protected] Vera Kalina-Levine 5705 [email protected] Javed Siddique 4108 [email protected] Darcie L. D’Augusta 4260 [email protected] Andreas Josef Dirnagl 5694 [email protected] Myrvet A. Cocoli 4826 [email protected] Daiji Matsumura 5703 [email protected] Brian Nogy 4716 [email protected] Katia Diaz 4057 [email protected] Taku Yoshino 4988 [email protected] Yukiko Otteson 5700 [email protected]