NWSRFS Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
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NWSRFSNWSRFSEnsemble Streamflow PredictionEnsemble Streamflow Prediction
Gerald (Jay) Day
2290 East Prospect Road, Suite 1Fort Collins, Colorado 80525
Ensemble Probabilistic Ensemble Probabilistic ForecastingForecasting
Hydrologic simulation using historic precipitation and temperature
Frequency analysis using “conditioned” hydrologic time series traces
0
5
10
15
20
1985
0
1
2
3
4
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8
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61
Day
Dis
char
ge
1987
1986
1985
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10
15
20
1986
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5
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1987
Likelihood of Exceeding Flood Capacity
Exceedance Probability
Vo
lum
e
ESP Forecast ApplicationsESP Forecast Applications
Water Supply ForecastsSpring Flood OutlooksDrought AnalysisHydropower PlanningFisheries ManagementRecreationNavigationReservoir Inflow Forecasts
Water Management Water Management ConsiderationsConsiderations
Flood Control
HydropowerWater SupplyRecreation
HydropowerNavigationWater QualityFisheriesRecreation
Soil Moisture in the Lake Soil Moisture in the Lake Lanier BasinLanier Basin
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86
YEAR
JUN
E 1
SO
IL M
OIS
TU
RE
ST
OR
AG
E (
mm
)
June 1, 1988 Conditions
Lake Lanier Inflow Forecast – Lake Lanier Inflow Forecast – June 1988June 1988
0
20
40
60
80
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120
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180
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE
ST
RE
AM
FL
OW
VO
LU
ME
(100
0's
of
acre
fee
t)
1 10 50 90 99
76%3%
CONDITIONAL FORECAST
HISTORICAL SIMULATION
NWSRFS StructureNWSRFS Structure
Hydrologic Operations
Operational Forecast System
Ensemble Streamflow Prediction System
Calibration System
NWSRFS Software OverviewNWSRFS Software Overview
AutomaticData EntryFunctions
ObservedDataFiles
PreprocessorFunctions
Pre-Processor Parameter
Files
Processed Data Files
Forecast Functions
ManualPreparation
Forecast Parameter
and Carryover
Files
OPERATIONAL FORECAST SYSTEM
Historical Data
Historical DataAccess Programs
Calibration Pre-processors and
Calibration Utility
Calibration Data Files
Manual Calibration Program
Automatic ParameterOptimizer
Parametric Data
ESP Functions
ESP Parameter
Files
ESP Initialization
Program
ESP Time Series Files
ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION SYSTEM
CALIBRATION SYSTEM
ESP ProcedureESP Procedure
CURRENT CONDITIONS• SOIL MOISTURE• SNOW PACK• RESERVOIR LEVELS• STREAMFLOW
HISTORICALTIME SERIES
ALL YEARS OFRECORD
FORECASTTIME SERIES
MEAN AREALTIME SERIES
PRECIPITATIONTEMPERATURE
NWSRFSHYDROLOGIC
MODELS
POSITIONALCLIMATOLOGICAL
INFORMATION
FORECASTS ANDOUTLOOKS
• WATER SUPPLY• OTHER WATER MGMT
INFORMATION
STATISTICALANALYSIS
WINDOW
PRESENT
TIME
ST
RE
AM
FLO
W
ESP Analysis and Display ESP Analysis and Display Program (ESPADP)Program (ESPADP)
ESPADP Trace Ensemble PlotESPADP Trace Ensemble Plot
ESPADP Expected Value PlotESPADP Expected Value Plot
ESPADP Probability HistogramESPADP Probability Histogram
ESPADP Exceedance Probability ESPADP Exceedance Probability PlotPlot
ESPADP Analysis VariablesESPADP Analysis Variables
Instantaneous Peak Flow Mean Daily Peak
Number of days above flood stage
Volume of flow
Flood stage
Minimum instantaneous flow
Time
Number of days until flood stage is exceededFlow
ESP Computed VariablesESP Computed Variables Variables that can be calculated for specified window:
• Maximum mean daily value and number of days to maximum mean daily value
• Minimum mean daily value and number of days to minimum mean daily value
• Mean daily value
• Volume
• Maximum instantaneous value and number of days to maximum instantaneous value
• Minimum instantaneous value and number of days to minimum instantaneous value
• Number of days until time series gets above (or below) a specified criterion
• Number of days time series remains above (or below) a specified criterion
ESPADP Observed and Conditional ESPADP Observed and Conditional SimulationSimulation
ESPADP Observed and Historical ESPADP Observed and Historical SimulationSimulation
Meteorological Forecast Meteorological Forecast InformationInformation
1 to 5 Day Forecasts
6 to 10 Day Categorical Forecasts
Monthly / Seasonal Outlooks
1 –5 Day Forecasts1 –5 Day ForecastsTemperature Precipitation
6 – 10 Day Forecasts6 – 10 Day Forecasts
Temperature Precipitation
Seasonal OutlookSeasonal OutlookTemperature Precipitation
ESPADP Pre-adjustment ESPADP Pre-adjustment TechniqueTechnique
ESPADP Year WeightingESPADP Year Weighting Used to incorporate Climate Forecast Information
Post ESP analysis procedure
Weights are set based on the similarity of a historical year to the current year
Can be used to exclude historical years
ESP ExampleESP Example