NWP Activities at the AEMET (Spain)srnwp.met.hu/Annual_Meetings/2016/download/monday/...Categorical...
1
Categorical verification for 1 year comparing ECMWF, HIRLAM 0.05 (HNR) and HARMONIE 2.5 km. The the added value of HARM in variables near the surface. For the precipitation, it should be taken into account that the double penalty problem Penalizes the models with higher resolution. Aemet runs HARMONIE/AROME v40h1.1 from the ALADIN-HIRLAM Shared System in the new HARMONIE/NWP Activities at the AEMET (Spain) NWP Activities at the AEMET (Spain) Calvo Calvo J., J., Campins Campins J., J., Diez Diez M., Garcia M., Garcia - - Moya Moya J.A., J.A., Geijo Geijo C., Hernandez A., C., Hernandez A., Hortal Hortal M., Martin D., Morales G., M., Martin D., Morales G., Sanchez J., Sanchez J., Subias Subias A. A. 38th EWGLAM & 23nd SRNWP Meetings, 3rd/6th Oct. 2016 Rome, Ital 38th EWGLAM & 23nd SRNWP Meetings, 3rd/6th Oct. 2016 Rome, Ital y y NEW High Performance Computer A new BULL supercomputer has been installed using Intel Xeon 2697 V2 Ivy Bridge processors. • • HIRLAM 3 HIRLAM v7.2 suits with 6 hr cycle 0.16deg H+72 over a big domain CNN 0.05deg H+36 Many post-process products and applications are still based on the HIRLAM HARMONIE/AROME SUITE Monitoring Observations 1 2 1 8 54h 54h 54h 1 2 1 8 48h 48h 48h 1 5 2 1 3h 3h We use OBSMON v2 for monitoring observations and analysis Sketch adapted from Montmerle, 2011 Verification against obs. 12-hr precipitation T 2m Categorical verification for 1 year comparing ECMWF, HIRLAM 0.05 (HNR) and HARMONIE 2.5 km. The Equitable Thread Score shows the added value of HARM in variables near the surface. For the precipitation, it should be taken into account that the double penalty problem Penalizes the models with higher resolution. Aemet runs HARMONIE/AROME v40h1.1 from the ALADIN-HIRLAM Shared System in the new computer. This suite is used by HIRLAM Consortium to monitor the quality of the reference system (Regular Cycle of Reference, RCR) HARMONIE/AROME at 2.5 km runs 8 times per day with a forecast length of 48 hours at 00, 06, 12, 18 and for 2 geographical domains (Iberian Peninsula and Canary Islands). • ALADIN NH dynamics and 1-hr boundaries from ECMWF • 3DVar analysis with 3hr cycle incl. ATOVS and GNSS data • Surface data assimilation with optimal interpolation. • AROME physics: Explicit deep convection, SURFEX and ICE3 microphysics • Unified scheme for shallow convection (EDMFM) NWP Activities at the AEMET (Spain) NWP Activities at the AEMET (Spain) Calvo Calvo J., J., Campins Campins J., J., Diez Diez M., Garcia M., Garcia - - Moya Moya J.A., J.A., Geijo Geijo C., Hernandez A., C., Hernandez A., Hortal Hortal M., Martin D., Morales G., M., Martin D., Morales G., Sanchez J., Sanchez J., Subias Subias A. A. 38th EWGLAM & 23nd SRNWP Meetings, 3rd/6th Oct. 2016 Rome, Ital 38th EWGLAM & 23nd SRNWP Meetings, 3rd/6th Oct. 2016 Rome, Ital y y NEW High Performance Computer A new BULL supercomputer has been installed using Intel Xeon 2697 V2 Ivy Bridge processors. • The computer is fully operated since early 2016. • 7760 processors with hyperthreading allow implementing the-SREPS ensemble system and RUC of the HARMONIE system. HIRLAM Suite 3 HIRLAM v7.2 suits with 6 hr cycle • ONR 0.16deg H+72 over a big domain • HNR and CNN 0.05deg H+36 Many post-process products and applications are still based on the HIRLAM outputs. HARMONIE/AROME SUITE Monitoring Observations ECMWF (early delivery) 00 UTC 0 6 1 2 1 8 54h 54h 54h 54h 00 UTC 0 6 1 2 1 8 48h 48h 48h 48h 0 3 0 9 1 5 2 1 3h LBCs 3h AROME 3h 3h ECMWF (early delivery) 00 UTC 0 6 1 2 1 8 54h 54h 54h 54h 00 UTC 0 6 1 2 1 8 48h 48h 48h 48h 0 3 0 9 1 5 2 1 3h LBCs 3h AROME 3h 3h We use OBSMON v2 for monitoring observations and analysis Sketch adapted from Montmerle, 2011 Verification against obs. 12-hr precipitation T 2m 10m wind speed Assimilation of ATOVS over two domains. • • Verification: The greatest impact is in the humidity variables. Future: ATOVS assimilation [email protected],[email protected] RADAR DATA ASSIMILATION [email protected] The work in finite element method deals with two sets of vertical operators (nhvfe): i) The first is given by the operators satisfying the (G*-1)(S*-1)=(N*-1) nh-model and which is needed in order to have a single prognostic equation in the vertical divergence "d" (known as the structure equation). ii) The second set is given by the integral and derivative operators which should be invertible if the option equations is written in terms of "d" but in the SL computations the variable used is the vertical velocity "w". Two transformations are needed in each time-step: integration in Invertibility is needed in order to avoid the production of noise. The computations of the above operators in nhvfe https://arxiv.org/abs/1601.03446 cycle cy40h1. The greatest difficulty in building the nhvfe operators is the match of the knots needed for the basis functions, whose maxima should be located in the set of levels. Two basis are shown: B-splines (i) and xi (ii). The default set of 65 levels of knots to match the maxima vertical levels. DYNAMICS [email protected] & [email protected] Assimilation of GNNS ZTD Cy40h1.1b5, 3DVar with 3hr cycle. Verification for 3 months of parallel runs Gnss ZTD data with 50 km Thinning Use of GNSS ZTD observations together with a VarBc (constant offset) has shown an improvement of short range weather forecasts, both in a statistical sense and in individual case studies. Try to decrease the Thinning distance and predictors of the VarBC scheme. VARBC performing for one month run for MALLIGE2 site. + Assimilation of radar data • More than one month of “full scale” test on the new HPC at AEMET. • Use of Field Aligment (FA) method to assimilate DOW data from 11 (14) AEMET radars. 3 hours DA cycle. • In-land radars ( red cross ) give better results than radars on the coast. Three of these last ones blacklisted (black cross) due to sea-clutter • Challenge: How to get longer lasting impacts ? + + + + + + + Assimilation of ATOVS over two domains. • Satellites used: • VARBC and monitoring. NOAA-18, NOAA-19, METOP-A & METOP-B AMSU-A: Channels 6-9, except Channel 7 & 8 of NOAA-19 and METOP-A. AMSU-B/MHS: Channels 3-5, except Channel 3 of NOAA-19. • Verification: The greatest impact is in the humidity variables. Future: test the assimilation of channels 5 and 10 of AMSU-A ATOVS assimilation [email protected],[email protected] RADAR DATA ASSIMILATION [email protected] The work in finite element method deals with two sets of vertical operators (nhvfe): i) The first is given by the operators satisfying the C1-constraint: (G*-1)(S*-1)=(N*-1) present in the SI set of linear equations of the nh-model and which is needed in order to have a single prognostic equation in the vertical divergence "d" (known as the structure equation). ii) The second set is given by the integral and derivative operators which should be invertible if the option LGWADV is on. The set of SI linear equations is written in terms of "d" but in the SL computations the variable used is the vertical velocity "w". Two transformations are needed in each time-step: integration in "d"=>"w" and derivation in "w"=>"d". The Invertibility is needed in order to avoid the production of noise. The computations of the above operators in nhvfe are shown in https://arxiv.org/abs/1601.03446 and tested in a branch over HARMONIE cycle cy40h1. The greatest difficulty in building the nhvfe operators is the match of the knots needed for the basis functions, whose maxima should be located in the set of levels. Two basis are shown: B-splines (i) and xi (ii). The default set of 65 levels is well adjusted, but the optimization algorithm of knots to match the maxima should be improved for a wider sets of vertical levels. DYNAMICS [email protected] & [email protected] Assimilation of GNNS ZTD Cy40h1.1b5, 3DVar with 3hr cycle. Verification for 3 months of parallel runs • Gnss ZTD data with 50 km Thinning and VarBC. Use of GNSS ZTD observations together with a VarBc (constant offset) has shown an improvement of short range weather forecasts, both in a statistical sense and in individual case studies. Future: Try to decrease the Thinning distance and increasing the number of predictors of the VarBC scheme. GNNS ZTD assimilation [email protected] GNSS sites : 800 Kuiper Skill Score for 12 hr- precipitation VARBC performing for one month run for MALLIGE2 site. Verification of RH against soundings + + Assimilation of radar data • More than one month of “full scale” test on the new HPC at AEMET. • Use of Field Aligment (FA) method to assimilate DOW data from 11 (14) AEMET radars. 3 hours DA cycle. • In-land radars ( red cross ) give better results than radars on the coast. Three of these last ones blacklisted (black cross) due to sea-clutter • Challenge: How to get longer lasting impacts ? + + + + + + + + + + + + + + VarBC and assimilation diagnostics are examined by means of obsmon Canary Island Suite Iberian Peninsula Suite Aemet runs HARMONIE/AROME v40h1.1 from the Regular Cycle of Reference (RCR) cycles including assimilation of Improved monitoring and verification of the system Clear added value on near surface variables compared with models of larger scale (HIRLAM and Clear improvement of fog forecast but with many false alarms. Significant improvement of precipitation forecasts including spatial distribution and amount of precipitation but revealing uncertainty in the prediction of small scales. runs are Regular Cycle of Reference (RCR) for the HARMONIE System cycles including assimilation of Improved monitoring and verification of the system assimilation including correction for position errors (Field Alignment technique). 'High Resolution' AMVs using NWC SAF software. Dynamics: Vertical Finite Elements for the vertical discretization. Configuration of a 2.5 km Ensemble System based on a multi-model approach AMV assimilation [email protected] γ-EPS [email protected] Towards a γ-SREPS system at 2.5 km resolution based on a Multi-model and multi-BC approach Daily run validation (00 & 12 UTC) at ECMWF Cray from March 2016 and it is expected to become operational in summer 2017 in the new AEMET HPC. - Meteosat-10 represent a good observation assimilation in HARMONIE over Southern Europe, especially at times other than 00 and 12 UTC, because availability and short latency. - (produced by the EUMETSAT SAF on support to Nowcasting) allows to generate AMVs locally, and to customize derivation. - assimilate disseminated by EUMETSAT, and explore the assimilation of AMVs produced NWC/GEO software. Aemet runs HARMONIE/AROME v40h1.1 from the ALADIN-HIRLAM Shared System in the new HPC. Regular Cycle of Reference (RCR) for the HARMONIE System cycles including assimilation of GPS/GNSS and ATOVS data. Improved monitoring and verification of the system Clear added value on near surface variables compared with models of larger scale (HIRLAM and Clear improvement of fog forecast but with many false alarms. Significant improvement of precipitation forecasts including spatial distribution and amount of precipitation but revealing uncertainty in the prediction of small scales. runs are Regular Cycle of Reference (RCR) for the HARMONIE System cycles including assimilation of GPS/GNSS and ATOVS data. Improved monitoring and verification of the system assimilation including correction for position errors (Field Alignment technique). 'High Resolution' AMVs using NWC SAF software. Dynamics: Vertical Finite Elements for the vertical discretization. Configuration of a 2.5 km Ensemble System based on a multi-model approach AMV assimilation [email protected] γ-EPS [email protected] Towards a γ-SREPS system at 2.5 km resolution based on a Multi-model and multi-BC approach • Multi-boundaries: • ECMWF, GFS, CMC, JMA, ARPEGE • Multi-model: • AROME, ALARO, WRF-ARW, WRF-NMMB Daily run validation (00 & 12 UTC) at ECMWF Cray from March 2016 and it is expected to become operational in summer 2017 in the new AEMET HPC. - AMVs from geostationary Meteosat-10 represent a good observation system for assimilation in HARMONIE over Southern Europe, especially at times other than 00 and 12 UTC, because of the frequent availability and short latency. - The NWC/GEO software (produced by the EUMETSAT SAF on support to Nowcasting) allows to generate AMVs locally, and to customize choices re AMV derivation. - Ongoing work at AEMET to assimilate Meteosat-10 AMVs disseminated by EUMETSAT, and explore the assimilation of AMVs produced locally with the NWC/GEO software. Courtesy of NWCSAF / J.G. Pereda Courtesy of NWCSAF / J.G. Pereda Comparison of objective verification among gSREPS, GLAMEPSv2 and GLAMEPSv2 calibrated. 2016032900 – 2016050912 Spread-skill plots of T2m and 10 m wind speed CRPS plots of T2m and 10 m wind speed
Transcript of NWP Activities at the AEMET (Spain)srnwp.met.hu/Annual_Meetings/2016/download/monday/...Categorical...
Categorical verification for 1 year comparing
ECMWF, HIRLAM 0.05 (HNR) and HARMONIE
2.5 km. The Equitable Thread Score shows
the added value of HARM in variables near the
surface. For the precipitation, it should be taken
into account that the double penalty problem
Penalizes the models with higher resolution.
Aemet runs HARMONIE/AROME v40h1.1 from the ALADIN-HIRLAM Shared System in the new computer. This suite is used by HIRLAM Consortium to monitor the quality of the reference system (Regular Cycle of Reference, RCR)
HARMONIE/AROME at 2.5 km runs 8 times per day with a forecast length of 48 hours at 00, 06, 12, 18 and for 2 geographical domains (Iberian Peninsula and Canary Islands).
• ALADIN NH dynamics and 1-hr boundaries from ECMWF
• 3DVar analysis with 3hr cycle incl. ATOVS and GNSS data
• Surface data assimilation with optimal interpolation.
• AROME physics: Explicit deep convection, SURFEX and ICE3 microphysics
• Unified scheme for shallow convection (EDMFM)
NWP Activities at the AEMET (Spain)NWP Activities at the AEMET (Spain)CalvoCalvo J., J., CampinsCampins J., J., DiezDiez M., GarciaM., Garcia--MoyaMoya J.A., J.A., GeijoGeijo C., Hernandez A., C., Hernandez A., HortalHortal M., Martin D., Morales G., M., Martin D., Morales G.,
Sanchez J., Sanchez J., SubiasSubias A.A.
38th EWGLAM & 23nd SRNWP Meetings, 3rd/6th Oct. 2016 Rome, Ital38th EWGLAM & 23nd SRNWP Meetings, 3rd/6th Oct. 2016 Rome, Italyy
NE
W H
igh
Per
form
ance
Com
pu
ter A new BULL supercomputer has been installed using
Intel Xeon 2697 V2 Ivy Bridge processors.
• The computer is fully operated since early 2016.
• 7760 processors with hyperthreading allowimplementing the-SREPS ensemble system and RUC of the HARMONIE system.
HIR
LA
M
Suit
e
3 HIRLAM v7.2 suits with 6 hr cycle
• ONR 0.16deg H+72 over a big domain
• HNR and CNN 0.05deg H+36
Many post-process products and applications are still based on the HIRLAMoutputs.
HA
RM
ON
IE/A
RO
ME
SU
ITE
Mon
itor
ing
Ob
serv
atio
ns
ECMWF(early delivery)
00
UTC
0
6
1
2
1
8
54h 54h 54h 54h
00
UTC
0
6
1
2
1
8
48h 48h 48h 48h
0
3
0
9
1
5
2
1
3h
LBC
s
3h
AROME
3h 3h
Obs. Windows
-2/+1 hr
We use
OBSMON
v2 for
monitoring
observations
and analysis
Sketch adapted from Montmerle, 2011
Ver
ific
atio
nag
ain
stob
s. 12-hr precipitation T 2m 10m wind speedCategorical verification for 1 year comparing
ECMWF, HIRLAM 0.05 (HNR) and HARMONIE
2.5 km. The Equitable Thread Score shows
the added value of HARM in variables near the
surface. For the precipitation, it should be taken
into account that the double penalty problem
Penalizes the models with higher resolution.
Aemet runs HARMONIE/AROME v40h1.1 from the ALADIN-HIRLAM Shared System in the new computer. This suite is used by HIRLAM Consortium to monitor the quality of the reference system (Regular Cycle of Reference, RCR)
HARMONIE/AROME at 2.5 km runs 8 times per day with a forecast length of 48 hours at 00, 06, 12, 18 and for 2 geographical domains (Iberian Peninsula and Canary Islands).
• ALADIN NH dynamics and 1-hr boundaries from ECMWF
• 3DVar analysis with 3hr cycle incl. ATOVS and GNSS data
• Surface data assimilation with optimal interpolation.
• AROME physics: Explicit deep convection, SURFEX and ICE3 microphysics
• Unified scheme for shallow convection (EDMFM)
NWP Activities at the AEMET (Spain)NWP Activities at the AEMET (Spain)CalvoCalvo J., J., CampinsCampins J., J., DiezDiez M., GarciaM., Garcia--MoyaMoya J.A., J.A., GeijoGeijo C., Hernandez A., C., Hernandez A., HortalHortal M., Martin D., Morales G., M., Martin D., Morales G.,
Sanchez J., Sanchez J., SubiasSubias A.A.
38th EWGLAM & 23nd SRNWP Meetings, 3rd/6th Oct. 2016 Rome, Ital38th EWGLAM & 23nd SRNWP Meetings, 3rd/6th Oct. 2016 Rome, Italyy
NE
W H
igh
Per
form
ance
Com
pu
ter A new BULL supercomputer has been installed using
Intel Xeon 2697 V2 Ivy Bridge processors.
• The computer is fully operated since early 2016.
• 7760 processors with hyperthreading allowimplementing the-SREPS ensemble system and RUC of the HARMONIE system.
HIR
LA
M
Suit
e
3 HIRLAM v7.2 suits with 6 hr cycle
• ONR 0.16deg H+72 over a big domain
• HNR and CNN 0.05deg H+36
Many post-process products and applications are still based on the HIRLAMoutputs.
HA
RM
ON
IE/A
RO
ME
SU
ITE
Mon
itor
ing
Ob
serv
atio
ns
ECMWF(early delivery)
00
UTC
0
6
1
2
1
8
54h 54h 54h 54h
00
UTC
0
6
1
2
1
8
48h 48h 48h 48h
0
3
0
9
1
5
2
1
3h
LBC
s
3h
AROME
3h 3h
Obs. Windows
-2/+1 hr
ECMWF(early delivery)
00
UTC
0
6
1
2
1
8
54h 54h 54h 54h
00
UTC
0
6
1
2
1
8
48h 48h 48h 48h
0
3
0
9
1
5
2
1
3h
LBC
s
3h
AROME
3h 3h
Obs. Windows
-2/+1 hr
Obs. Windows
-2/+1 hr
We use
OBSMON
v2 for
monitoring
observations
and analysis
Sketch adapted from Montmerle, 2011
Ver
ific
atio
nag
ain
stob
s. 12-hr precipitation T 2m 10m wind speed
Assimilation of ATOVS over two domains.
• Satellites used: • VARBC and monitoring.
NOAA-18, NOAA-19, METOP-A & METOP-B
AMSU-A: Channels 6-9, except Channel 7 & 8of NOAA-19 and METOP-A.
AMSU-B/MHS: Channels 3-5,except Channel 3 of NOAA-19.
•Verification: The greatest impact is in the humidity variables.
Future: test the assimilation of channels 5 and 10 of AMSU-A
AT
OV
S as
sim
ilat
ion
[email protected],[email protected]
RA
DA
R D
AT
A A
SSIM
ILA
TIO
N
The work in finite element method deals with two sets of vertical operators (nhvfe):
i) The first is given by the operators satisfying the C1-constraint:(G*-1)(S*-1)=(N*-1) present in the SI set of linear equations of the nh-model and which is needed in order to have a single prognostic equation in the vertical divergence "d" (known as the structure equation).
ii) The second set is given by the integral and derivative operators which should be invertible if the option LGWADV is on. The set of SI linear equations is written in terms of "d" but in the SL computations the variable used is the vertical velocity "w". Two transformations are needed in each time-step: integration in "d"=>"w" and derivation in "w"=>"d". The Invertibility is needed in order to avoid the production of noise.
The computations of the above operators in nhvfe are shown in https://arxiv.org/abs/1601.03446 and tested in a branch over HARMONIE cycle cy40h1. The greatest difficulty in building the nhvfe operators is the match of the knots needed for the basis functions, whose maxima should be located in the set of levels. Two basis are shown: B-splines (i) and xi (ii).
The default set of 65 levels is well adjusted, but the optimization algorithm of knots to match the maxima should be improved for a wider sets of vertical levels.
DY
NA
MIC
Sm
ho
rtalr
@aem
et.
es
& a
sub
iasd
@aem
et.
es
Assimilation of GNNS ZTD
Cy40h1.1b5, 3DVar with 3hr cycle. Verification for 3 months of parallel runs
•Gnss ZTD data
with 50 km Thinning and VarBC.
Use of GNSS ZTD observations together with a VarBc (constant offset) has shown an improvement of short range weather forecasts, both in astatistical sense and in individual case studies.
Future: Try to decrease the Thinning distance and increasing the number of predictors of the VarBC scheme.
GN
NS
ZT
D a
ssim
ilat
ion
GNSS sites : 800
Kuiper Skill Score
for 12 hr-
precipitation
VARBC performing for one
month run for MALLIGE2 site.
Verification of RH
against soundings
+
Assimilation of radar data
• More than one month of “full scale” test on the new HPC at AEMET.
• Use of Field Aligment (FA) method to assimilate DOW data from 11 (14) AEMET radars. 3 hours DA cycle.
• In-land radars ( red cross ) give better results than radars on the coast. Three of these last ones blacklisted (black cross)due to sea-clutter
• Challenge: How to get longer lasting impacts ?
+ +
+
+++
+
VarBC and
assimilation
diagnostics are
examined by means
of obsmon
Canary Island SuiteIberian Peninsula
Suite
Assimilation of ATOVS over two domains.
• Satellites used: • VARBC and monitoring.
NOAA-18, NOAA-19, METOP-A & METOP-B
AMSU-A: Channels 6-9, except Channel 7 & 8of NOAA-19 and METOP-A.
AMSU-B/MHS: Channels 3-5,except Channel 3 of NOAA-19.
•Verification: The greatest impact is in the humidity variables.
Future: test the assimilation of channels 5 and 10 of AMSU-A
AT
OV
S as
sim
ilat
ion
[email protected],[email protected]
RA
DA
R D
AT
A A
SSIM
ILA
TIO
N
The work in finite element method deals with two sets of vertical operators (nhvfe):
i) The first is given by the operators satisfying the C1-constraint:(G*-1)(S*-1)=(N*-1) present in the SI set of linear equations of the nh-model and which is needed in order to have a single prognostic equation in the vertical divergence "d" (known as the structure equation).
ii) The second set is given by the integral and derivative operators which should be invertible if the option LGWADV is on. The set of SI linear equations is written in terms of "d" but in the SL computations the variable used is the vertical velocity "w". Two transformations are needed in each time-step: integration in "d"=>"w" and derivation in "w"=>"d". The Invertibility is needed in order to avoid the production of noise.
The computations of the above operators in nhvfe are shown in https://arxiv.org/abs/1601.03446 and tested in a branch over HARMONIE cycle cy40h1. The greatest difficulty in building the nhvfe operators is the match of the knots needed for the basis functions, whose maxima should be located in the set of levels. Two basis are shown: B-splines (i) and xi (ii).
The default set of 65 levels is well adjusted, but the optimization algorithm of knots to match the maxima should be improved for a wider sets of vertical levels.
DY
NA
MIC
Sm
ho
rtalr
@aem
et.
es
& a
sub
iasd
@aem
et.
es
Assimilation of GNNS ZTD
Cy40h1.1b5, 3DVar with 3hr cycle. Verification for 3 months of parallel runs
•Gnss ZTD data
with 50 km Thinning and VarBC.
Use of GNSS ZTD observations together with a VarBc (constant offset) has shown an improvement of short range weather forecasts, both in astatistical sense and in individual case studies.
Future: Try to decrease the Thinning distance and increasing the number of predictors of the VarBC scheme.
GN
NS
ZT
D a
ssim
ilat
ion
GNSS sites : 800
Kuiper Skill Score
for 12 hr-
precipitation
VARBC performing for one
month run for MALLIGE2 site.
Verification of RH
against soundings
++
Assimilation of radar data
• More than one month of “full scale” test on the new HPC at AEMET.
• Use of Field Aligment (FA) method to assimilate DOW data from 11 (14) AEMET radars. 3 hours DA cycle.
• In-land radars ( red cross ) give better results than radars on the coast. Three of these last ones blacklisted (black cross)due to sea-clutter
• Challenge: How to get longer lasting impacts ?
+ ++ +
+
++
+
+++
+
+
+
VarBC and
assimilation
diagnostics are
examined by means
of obsmon
Canary Island SuiteIberian Peninsula
Suite
Aemet runs HARMONIE/AROME v40h1.1 from the ALADIN-HIRLAM Shared System in the new HPC.
• These runs are Regular Cycle of Reference (RCR) for the HARMONIE System• 3-hr cycles including assimilation of GPS/GNSS and ATOVS data.• Improved monitoring and verification of the system
• Clear added value on near surface variables compared with models of larger scale (HIRLAM and ECMWF)• Clear improvement of fog forecast but with many false alarms. • Significant improvement of precipitation forecasts including spatial distribution and amount of precipitation but revealing uncertainty in the prediction of small scales. • These runs are Regular Cycle of Reference (RCR) for the HARMONIE System
• 3-hr cycles including assimilation of GPS/GNSS and ATOVS data.• Improved monitoring and verification of the system
Research on:• Radar data assimilation including correction for position errors (Field Alignment technique).• Assimilation of 'High Resolution' AMVs using NWC SAF software.• Dynamics: Vertical Finite Elements for the vertical discretization.• Configuration of a 2.5 km Ensemble System based on a multi-model approach
Highlights
AM
V a
ssim
ilat
ion
ahernandezc@
aemet.es
γ-E
PS
[email protected] Towards a γ-SREPS system at 2.5 km resolution based on a
Multi-model and multi-BC approach
• Multi-boundaries:
• ECMWF, GFS, CMC, JMA, ARPEGE
• Multi-model:
• AROME, ALARO, WRF-ARW, WRF-NMMB
Daily run validation (00 & 12 UTC) at ECMWF Cray from
March 2016 and it is expected to become operational in
summer 2017 in the new AEMET HPC.
- AMVs from geostationary Meteosat-10 represent a good observation system for assimilation in HARMONIE over Southern Europe, especially at times other than 00 and 12 UTC, because of the frequent availability and short latency.
- The NWC/GEO software (produced by the EUMETSAT SAF on support to Nowcasting) allows to generate AMVs locally, and to customize choices re AMV derivation.
- Ongoing work at AEMET to assimilate Meteosat-10 AMVsdisseminated by EUMETSAT, and explore the assimilation of AMVsproduced locally with the NWC/GEO software.
Co
urt
esy
of
NW
CS
AF /
J.
G.
Pere
da
Comparison of objective verification among gSREPS, GLAMEPSv2 and
GLAMEPSv2 calibrated.
2016032900 – 2016050912
Spread-skill plots of T2m
and 10 m wind speed
CRPS plots of T2m and 10 m wind
speed
Aemet runs HARMONIE/AROME v40h1.1 from the ALADIN-HIRLAM Shared System in the new HPC.
• These runs are Regular Cycle of Reference (RCR) for the HARMONIE System• 3-hr cycles including assimilation of GPS/GNSS and ATOVS data.• Improved monitoring and verification of the system
• Clear added value on near surface variables compared with models of larger scale (HIRLAM and ECMWF)• Clear improvement of fog forecast but with many false alarms. • Significant improvement of precipitation forecasts including spatial distribution and amount of precipitation but revealing uncertainty in the prediction of small scales. • These runs are Regular Cycle of Reference (RCR) for the HARMONIE System
• 3-hr cycles including assimilation of GPS/GNSS and ATOVS data.• Improved monitoring and verification of the system
Research on:• Radar data assimilation including correction for position errors (Field Alignment technique).• Assimilation of 'High Resolution' AMVs using NWC SAF software.• Dynamics: Vertical Finite Elements for the vertical discretization.• Configuration of a 2.5 km Ensemble System based on a multi-model approach
Highlights
AM
V a
ssim
ilat
ion
ahernandezc@
aemet.es
γ-E
PS
[email protected] Towards a γ-SREPS system at 2.5 km resolution based on a
Multi-model and multi-BC approach
• Multi-boundaries:
• ECMWF, GFS, CMC, JMA, ARPEGE
• Multi-model:
• AROME, ALARO, WRF-ARW, WRF-NMMB
Daily run validation (00 & 12 UTC) at ECMWF Cray from
March 2016 and it is expected to become operational in
summer 2017 in the new AEMET HPC.
- AMVs from geostationary Meteosat-10 represent a good observation system for assimilation in HARMONIE over Southern Europe, especially at times other than 00 and 12 UTC, because of the frequent availability and short latency.
- The NWC/GEO software (produced by the EUMETSAT SAF on support to Nowcasting) allows to generate AMVs locally, and to customize choices re AMV derivation.
- Ongoing work at AEMET to assimilate Meteosat-10 AMVsdisseminated by EUMETSAT, and explore the assimilation of AMVsproduced locally with the NWC/GEO software.
Co
urt
esy
of
NW
CS
AF /
J.
G.
Pere
da
Co
urt
esy
of
NW
CS
AF /
J.
G.
Pere
da
Comparison of objective verification among gSREPS, GLAMEPSv2 and
GLAMEPSv2 calibrated.
2016032900 – 2016050912
Spread-skill plots of T2m
and 10 m wind speed
CRPS plots of T2m and 10 m wind
speed
