NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller
-
Upload
nvar-com -
Category
Real Estate
-
view
1.896 -
download
0
description
Transcript of NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller
![Page 1: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Northern Virginia Association of Realtors
March 19, 2009
The Washington Area and Northern Virginia Economic Performance Outlook
Stephen S. Fuller, PhDDwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor
Director, Center for Regional AnalysisSchool of Public Policy, George Mason University
![Page 2: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2006 – 2011
%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Global Insight
Forecast >>>>>
![Page 3: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
GDP Percent Change(Real Dollars)%
![Page 4: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
CURRENT CONDITIONS
![Page 5: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices
Non-Mfg
Mfg
![Page 6: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - USTHOUSANDS
Feb 09 =- 4.34 Mil
Source: BLS Establishment Survey
![Page 7: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Initial Unemployment Claims
350
Thousands (4-week moving average)
![Page 8: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
U.S. Unemployment Rate
%
Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted
Feb = 8.1%
![Page 9: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Housing Trends:New & Existing Home Sales
Existing(left scale)
New
(Rt Scale)
(000s) (000s)
![Page 10: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Consumer Confidence
100
Present Situation
Expectations
Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
![Page 11: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Growth in Total Consumption Outlays%
Source: Global Insight, January 2008, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
![Page 12: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
%
U.S. Economic Performance
Source: Global Insight
![Page 13: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
The Washington Area and NorthernVirginia Economies
![Page 14: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
US GDP and Washington GRP
%
Washington GRP
US GDP
![Page 15: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
U.S. Washington AreaGRP Change
3/01 - 11/01 (8) 2.5 %7/90 - 3/91 (8) 0.2 %
7/81 - 11/82 (16) 3.1 %1/80 - 7/80 (6) 2.3 %
U.S and Washington Area Recent Recessions
![Page 16: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
2009 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy
LocalBusiness38.9%
Non-LocalBusiness11.8 %
Federal 33.3%
Procurement15.4%
Assn 2.2% Hosp. 2.0%
Int’l 4.8%
Other 7.0%
Other Federal17.9 %
Other: Health/Education, Media, Lobbyists
![Page 17: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Total Federal SpendingWashington Metro Area
Billions Current $
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Total
Procurement
![Page 18: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Federal Procurement SpendingWashington Metro & Northern VA
Billions Current $
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Eagle Eye, Inc.
Metro
NVA
![Page 19: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Thousands
Annual Change in JobsWashington Metro Area
1991 - 2008
Avg. = 45,000
Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
![Page 20: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA
000s
Annual Data Annual Month over Year
Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
![Page 21: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Annual Job ChangeNorthern Virginia
000s
Annual Data Annual Month over Year
Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
![Page 22: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change Jan. 08 – Jan. 09
(000s)
Washington - 1,800
Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
![Page 23: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Job Change by SectorJan 2008 – Jan 2009
Washington MSA(000s)
Total - 1,800
Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
![Page 24: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Percent Change in Jobs By Sector U.S and Washington MSA
Jan 08 – Jan 09
Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
%
![Page 25: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Unemployment Rate
%
Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted
U.S.
Washington
Dec:7.1%
4.7%
3.9%
Northern VA
![Page 26: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment Rate
December 2008%
US7.1
Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted
![Page 27: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Housing Market Trends
![Page 28: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Sales and Total Active ListingsWashington MSA, February Each Year
Listings
Sales
1000s
![Page 29: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Units Sold Percent ChangeBy Subregion
All Housing Types%
NVA
MSA
DC
SMD
2007 2008 2009
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
![Page 30: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Housing Price Index TrendsU.S. and Washington Metro Area
Both Series Indexed to 1976 = 100
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (OFHEO) and GMU Center for Regional Analysis
ConformingLoans Only
![Page 31: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Average Sales Price All Housing TypesWashington Metro
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
$
+ 8.0 %/year
![Page 32: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Area 2007 Price 2008 Price Change % Change
Dist. Of Columbia $537,400 $543,500 + $6,100 + 1.1 %
Arlington $559,000 $539,300 - $19,700 - 3.5 %
Alexandria $502,900 $471,200 - $31,700 - 6.3 %
Montgomery $550,200 $503,900 - $46,300 - 8.4 %
Prince George’s $331,100 $290,200 - $40,900 - 12.4 %
Fairfax $542,000 $445,900 - $96,100 - 17.7 %
Loudoun $516,800 $389,000 - $127,800 - 24.7 %
Prince William $395,000 $257,900 - $137,100 - 34.7 %
MD SUBURBS $435,800 $400,400 - $35,400 - 8.1 %
VA SUBURBS $488,300 $373,200 - $115,100 - 23.6 %
METRO AREA $468,700 $394,700 - $74,000 - 15.8 %
Annual Price Changes by Jurisdiction
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
![Page 33: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Mortgage Foreclosure Ratesby County – Jan 08 & Jan 09
Foreclosures /10,000 units
Source: RealtyTrac, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Jan 2008 Jan 2009
![Page 34: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Economic Forecast
![Page 35: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2013Washington Area and Sub-state Portions
(Annual % Change)%
DCSMMSA
NV
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
![Page 36: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Employment Change bySub-state Region (000s)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
D.C. 5.8 4.2 5.5 6.0 6.4 7.0 6.5
Sub. MD 4.7 3.4 6.0 10.7 12.5 14.3 16.4
No. VA 12.4 9.0 12.2 19.8 23.5 26.8 31.1
REGION 22.9 16.6 23.7 36.5 42.4 48.1 54.0
Average Annual Change 1990-2007 = 45,000
Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
![Page 37: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
%
Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
GDP/GRP 2000 - 2013
Washington
U.S.
![Page 38: NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042714/54b457824a795973378b457a/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
www.cra-gmu.org