Nutrition Business Journal, Expo East 2007 Global Business Program U.S. Nutrition Market Figures,...

Nutrition Business Journal, www.nutritionbusiness.com Expo East 2007

Global Business Program Global Business Program U.S. Nutrition Market Figures, U.S. Nutrition Market Figures,

Trends & OpportunitiesTrends & Opportunities

September 26, 2007

Patrick Rea, Editorial Director & Publisher, NBJ

Nutrition Business Journal, www.nutritionbusiness.com

NBJ ProductsNBJ Products

NBJ Subscriptions: Individual paper copy ($995) Corporate ($2.5-$30k depending on users and level of access)

Reports: ($2,995) NBJ’s Healthy Foods Report 2007 NBJ’s Supplement Business Report 2007 NBJ’s Organic Foods Report 2006 NBJ’s Healthy Foods Report 2006 NBJ’s Raw Material & Ingredient Supply Report 2006 NBJ’s Sports Nutrition & Weight Loss Report 2007 NBJ’s M&A Report: Segment Modules

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NBJ Products (cont’d)NBJ Products (cont’d)

New Trend & Market Niche Reports: ($995) CAM and Practitioner Supplement Sales Report 2007 Natural & Organic Personal Care Report 2006 Natural Pet Product and Pet Nutrition Report 2006 Nutrition Bar Trend Report 2006 Joint Health Report 2006 Chinese Nutrition Market Report 2007

Data Charts: Downloadable excel files of 150+ data charts

NBJ Back Issues & Data Packs

Web Seminars; Custom Research, M&A Database

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NBJ Research MethodologyNBJ Research MethodologyAssess all levels of the value chainAssess all levels of the value chain

Manufacturer: NBJ manufacturer & brand sales survey: NBJ database of 400-500 supplement companies with annual wholesale sales with product and sales channel breakdown; compiled company and category research; executive & analyst interviews

Retail: USA Model: Nielsen mainstream FDM data; IRI scanned data in FDM; SPINS data from A-size (>$2mil) natural stores, survey of 600+ natural independent and chain stores with Natural Food Merchandiser; Costco, WalMart, distributor, GNC, etc. interviews; store & gym visits; C-Store News, Beverage Digest, etc.

Direct: NBJ survey and database of company sales in MLM, practitioner, DRTV, internet, mail order, etc.; DSA, Jordan Whitney, etc.

Consumer: Various usage and attitude surveys modeled into aggregate purchase model to reconcile with manufacturer & retail data

Supply: NBJ’s annual survey of raw material & ingredient supply companies and interviews for NBJ

SPECIAL FOR 2007 NBJ Global issue: NBJ/IADSA survey of global supplement manufacturers; poll of IADSA member associations; interviews with companies, experts and secondary data providers (Euromonitor, Nicholas Hall, Zenith, government research)

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NBJ USA ForecastNBJ USA Forecast

Products 2006 ($mil) 2006 Growth 07-10 Growth Forecast

Supplements 22,460 5.4% 4-6%

Natural & Organic Food 23,602 13.3% 10-13%

Functional Foods 31,400 10.2% 5-9%

Natural & Organic Personal Care, Household Goods

7,490 14.2% 11-13%

Nutrition Industry 84,952 10.0% 7-9%

Source: Nutrition Business Journal.

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U.S. Nutrition Industry: U.S. Nutrition Industry: $85 Bil in 2006$85 Bil in 2006

Supplements26%

N&OFood28%

Functional Foods

37%

N&O Personal Care etc

9%

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U.S. Nutrition Industry Sales, U.S. Nutrition Industry Sales, 1997-2006 ($85 Bil in 2006)1997-2006 ($85 Bil in 2006)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

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U.S. Nutrition Industry Supply ChainU.S. Nutrition Industry Supply Chain

Consumer Sales ($mil) Retail Direct Wholesale

Raw Materials/

Ingredients

Supplements Total 22,460 14,390 8,070 13,350 2,510

Natural/Organic Food 23,600 23,530 70 13,210 3,170

Functional Food* 31,400 30,950 450 21,640 660

NPC 7,490 4,730 2,760 4,010 580

Total Nutrition Ind. 84,950 73,600 11,360 52,200 6,920

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Today’s U.S. Nutrition Industry Today’s U.S. Nutrition Industry Issues & OpportunitiesIssues & Opportunities

• Specialty Supplement Categories• Obesity & Weight Loss• Natural Retail• Mass Market• Import & Safety Issues• Practitioner


U.S. Specialty Supplement Sales Growth, U.S. Specialty Supplement Sales Growth, 1995-20061995-2006

11.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

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U.S. Fish Oil Sales, 1997-2006 U.S. Fish Oil Sales, 1997-2006 ($489 Mil in 2006)($489 Mil in 2006)

0

100

200

300

400

500

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Figure: in $Mil

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U.S. Probiotic Sales, 1997-2006 U.S. Probiotic Sales, 1997-2006 ($299 Mil in 2006)($299 Mil in 2006)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Figure: in $Mil

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U.S. Sports & Energy Drink Sales Growth, U.S. Sports & Energy Drink Sales Growth, 1998-20061998-2006

23.70%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

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U.S. Natural & Organic Food Sales Growth, U.S. Natural & Organic Food Sales Growth, 1995-20061995-2006

13.3%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

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U.S. Natural & Organic Personal Care & U.S. Natural & Organic Personal Care & Household Item Sales Growth, 1995-2006Household Item Sales Growth, 1995-2006

14.2%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006


Supplement Sales: Supplement Sales: Retail vs. Direct Channel GrowthRetail vs. Direct Channel Growth

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Retail Direct

Source: NBJ/Newport Summit 2007

What do you feel is the consumer trend with the most promising market potential for dietary supplement manufacturers and suppliers?

43 5821 27

Organicingredients

Food safety Country oforigin

declaration

Concern aboutchildren'snutrition

29% 39%

14%18%


Based upon increased concerns about the quality of Chinese materials, have you changed your buying practices or behaviors?

17

3328

Yes definitely To some degree Not at all

22%

42%36%


How will your planned marketing expenditures in 2007 compare with 2006?

Significantly greater than 2006

34%

Somewhat greater than 2006

37%

About the same as 200620%

Somewhat less than 2006

9%

Significantly less than 2006

0%


What will drive the shift from a disease/treatment paradigm to a wellness/prevention system?

Rising corporate health care costs

54%

Media influence29%

2008 elections3%

Industry product development

5%

New scientific research

9%


To capture health care dollars, who will be the nutrition industry's greatest business partner?

Physicians (MDs)22%

Insurers32%

Alternative medicine

practitioners (DC, ND, LAc, etc.)

21%

Government6%

Distributors19%


Thank you.Thank you.

September 26, 2007

Patrick Rea, Editorial Director & Publisher, NBJ

Nutrition Business Journal, Expo East 2007 Global Business Program U.S. Nutrition Market Figures,...

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