Nusantara consulting final global review
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Transcript of Nusantara consulting final global review
NUSANTARA CONSULTING
VYP Business Challenges and Strategic Solutions
University of IndonesiaIki Sari Dewi Dendi Suhubdy Widia Winarni Bunga Rabecca Theresia
Industry Overview
Company Analysis
Issues Description
Prioritization of Issues and Rationale
Issues Analysis and Recommendation
Action PlanOutline
Industry AnalysisPorter’s 5 Forces Radar
Competitor Analysis
Endemol (1994)business core entertainment, reality TV, game shows, comedy, drama sport, docu-dramas, animations, features and features films. Business strategy worldwide network
Boomerang (1994)business core: entertainment factual, sport business strategy: become a major supplier through both organic growth and strategic acquisition
Icon Films (1990) business core: documentary and factual entertainment business strategy: innovate, provoke, and engage the content makers to provide internationally programmes
Denham Production (1983)business core food and documentary programsbusiness strategy build professional atmosphere
Industry Overview
Company Analysis
Issues Description
Prioritization of Issues and Rationale
Issues Analysis and Recommendation
Action PlanOutline
Company Analysis
Strength1. Good reputation in program production2. Network and connection to broadcaster3. Creative and artistic program making people
Weakness1. Very reliant on its founders2. Cost discrepancy in program making3. Inadequate production equipment4. Tight working schedule
Opportunities1. Expansion on Corporate Ads Video2. Merchandise Commission on New Children Program3. Increasing interest of documentary and drama series4. Re-commission of drama series
Threats1. Reduction in commission revenue portion 2. Difficulty in Debt Financing3. Delayed commission payment from broadcasters4. Euro Crisis
SWOT
Industry Overview
Company Analysis
Issues Description
Prioritization of Issues and Rationale
Issues Analysis and Recommendation
Action PlanOutline
Issues Description
Re-Commissioned Drama Program
Issues Description
Proposal to Expand into Corporate Advertising Videos
Issues Description
Fee negotiation for New Children’s Program
Issues Description
A New Documentary by VYP
Issues Description
Accident at Studio
Industry Overview
Company Analysis
Issues Description
Prioritization of Issues and Rationale
Issues Analysis and Recommendation
Action PlanOutline
Prioritization of Issues and Rationale
CriteriaDirect impact on VYP’s profitability in the short-term
Long-term impact on VYP’s sustainability and profitability
Category
Problem
Proposal
Complication of ImplementationEthical Issue
3
Prioritization of Issues and Rationale
Accident at Studio
12
4
5
A New Documentary by VYP
Re-Commission Drama Program
Fee Negotiation on New Children’s Program
Proposal to Expand Into Corporate Advertising Video
Prioritization of Issues and RationaleDirect impact Long-term impact Complication
A New Documentary
Re-Commissioned Drama Series
Fee Negotiation on New Children Program
Accident At Studio
Proposal to Expand into Corporate Ads
Problem
Proposal
Ethical Issue
Industry Overview
Company Analysis
Issues Description
Prioritization of Issues and Rationale
Issues Analysis and Recommendation
Action PlanOutline
“Banks, Friend of Foe” – A New Documentary by VYP
A New Documentary by VYP
Issue Background
Continue production with interview and CGI cuts
Continue production without cuts
VYP is dealing with the unprofitable “Banks, Friend or Foe” documentary
project
BudgetedWith Cuts
No Cuts
£-
£50,000.0
£100,000.0
£150,000.0
£200,000.0
£250,000.0
£300,000.0
£350,000.0
revenueCost
11.03%margin
0%margin
£30,000loss
A New Documentary by VYP
Financial Analysis
BudgetedWith Cuts
No Cuts
£-
£50,000.0
£100,000.0
£150,000.0
£200,000.0
£250,000.0
£300,000.0
£350,000.0
revenueCost
£30,000loss
24%Increase in cost
A New Documentary by VYP
Financial Analysis
£30,000loss
= 4.54%Documentaries opt profit 2011< 16.66%
Average documentaries contribution of profit 2011 per program
A New Documentary by VYP
Financial Analysis
LOSS IS WITHIN ACCEPTANCE LIMIT
A New Documentary by VYP
Importance of Documentaries
DRAMA DOCUMENTARIES
ENTERTAINMENT COMEDY
“It is all about maintaining VYP’s core competence”
-Nusantara Consulting
DRAMA DOCUMENTARIES
ENTERTAINMENT COMEDY
“It is all about maintaining VYP’s core competence”
-Nusantara Consulting
A New Documentary by VYP
Importance of Documentaries
Documentaries’ profitability remain competitive despite the new programDocumentaries are able to maintain its position as VYP’s top two contributor in terms of operating profit and operating margin
A New Documentary by VYP
Importance of Documentaries
A New Documentary by VYP
Strategic Analysis
A New Documentary by VYP
Short-term Recommendation
Production with cuts Production without cuts
Financial
Short-Term Recommendation(Until ‘Banks Friends or Foe’ program finish):
Continue production as planned without any cuts
Break Event PointLoss within
acceptance limit
Strategic Risk of future lossesMaintain sustainable
profitability
A New Documentary by VYP
Short-term Recommendation
Short-term Recommendation to Finish ‘Banks Friends or Foe’ Program
Modify Project
Plan
Implementation &
Monitoring
Discrepancy Control
1. Program Producer and Director work together in the modification of project plan.
2. Decide critical level of each cost for future discrepancy control
.
1. List all activities to finish the program
2. Decide person in charge for each activities
3. Decide person monitoring each activities
1. Make cost reduction schedule when another discrepancy happen
2. Reduction will be based on critical level in project plan
A New Documentary by VYP
Medium & Long-term Recommendation
Medium-Term Recommendation:
• Implement Enterprise Resource Planning system in budget making
• Develop standardized contingency plans• Create an unforeseen expense account on the
budgeted cost structure
Long-Term Recommendation:
• Develop rating-based commission system
Long unsolved problem / potential future problem:Repetitive discrepancy between actual cost and budgeted cost
Re-Commission New Drama Series
Re-Commission New Drama Series
Proposal Background
VYP is being offered a proposal to re-commission its previous drama seriesUnavailability of main actor
Lower margin compared to the previous series (5% from 7.6%)
VYP production schedule can be delayed or changed
Lower profitability
Proposal Constraints Implications
Drama43%
Docu-mentaries
19%
Comedy26%
Entertainment12% Drama
25%
Docu-mentaries
25%
Comedy38%
Enter-tainment
12%Re-Commission New Drama Series
Analysis of Acceptance
Drama Has High Cash Flow Contribution
Revenue Structure 2011Average Revenue per hour 2011
Re-Commission New Drama Series
Analysis of Acceptance
Rowing Drama Re-Commission Contributes Significant Cash Flow
First Series
7.6%
Second Series
5%
MARGIN
£ 250,000
Cash flow is important given debt financing has been difficult to raise
Re-Commission New Drama Series
Analysis of Acceptance
Increased Credentials for Future Commissioned Program and International Sales
Coincide with World Rowing Championship
Increase viewers’ interestReceive high rating
Increase VYP’s bargaining power to demand higher commission from broadcaster
Re-commission will convince the international broadcasters that this drama series is worth broadcasted internationally. Thus, increase international sales
Re-commission of this drama will also increase VYP’s credentials in drama series production, thus VYP can commission more drama programs in the future.
Benefits of Drama Re-Commission Success
Accept the Proposal to Re-Commission Drama
Re-Commission New Drama Series
Implementation Alternatives
Low Risk High
Low
Be
nefit
H
igh
Safest alternatives in terms of production schedule and production cost+
Termination of John Strong contract with GGG
Re-Arranging Scenes Shooting Schedule
Modify Story line
Contract termination could significantly change the margin forecasted
Could harm VYP’s relationship with GGG and GGG’s broadcaster.
-Full story with main actor can be delivered to viewers+
Increase production cost
Delayed production timeline
-Less pressure on the timeline
No increase in production cost due to contract termination and re-arranging schedule
+
Sacrifice the story line which is important for drama quality.-
Fee Negotiation on New Children’s Program
Fee Negotiation on New Children’s Program
Proposal Background
VYP has been offered two fee methods for its new children’s program
Sammy Squirrel Program’s payment
methods
Fee without merchandise right
£ 6,300,000
Fee with merchandise right
£ 4,095,000
Fee Negotiation on New Children’s Program
Financial Analysis
Fee without merchandise right
£ 6,300,000REVENUE
COST £ 5,607,000
PROFIT £ 693,000(benchmark: 12% margin as general entertainment’s profit)
£ 0MERCHANDISE PROFIT
Breakeven Analysis
Fee Negotiation on New Children’s Program
Financial Analysis
Fee with merchandise right
£ 4,095,000REVENUE
COST £ 5,607,000
PROFIT £ 693,000(benchmark: 12% margin as general entertainment’s profit)
£ 2,205,000MERCHANDISE PROFIT
Breakeven Analysis
40 %Merchandise SalesMargin25%
£ 22,050,000
Fee Negotiation on New Children’s Program
Financial Analysis
Current
£4,095,000Inflow
Outflow£ 5,607,000
Internal additional financing
£ 1,512,000
Future
£2,205,000Inflow
(From merchandise royalty)
50% of 2011 total
operating profit
• Broadcasters pay commission late
• Debt financing is difficult
Financial risk of option with merchandise right is too high and benefit is uncertain
Option with merchandise right means VYP must spend £1,512,000 to finish the program
Fee Negotiation on New Children’s Program
Financial Analysis
Option without merchandise right will directly contribute £ 693,000 to VYP
£ 693,000 profit
20%of 2011 total
operating profit
• No risk of loss if merchandise sales is lower than £22,050,000
• Doesn’t need additional internal financing
Financial risk of option without merchandise right is low and the benefit is high
Fee Negotiation on New Children’s Program
Strategic Analysis
Teletubbies Should Not be Sammy Squirrel’s Benchmark
Sales£ 23,000,000 in the 1st year
£ 33,000,000 with inflation
Teletubbies should not be the benchmark• Merchandise sales achieved after being
aired internationally. Sammy Squirrel is a pilot project only in UK
• Teletubbies sold 4 complementary characters. Sammy Squirrel sells only one
Fee Negotiation on New Children’s Program
Strategic Analysis
Merchandise Sales of £ 22,050,000 is Difficult to Achieve
High Merchandise Sales
High Program Popularity
International sales
“Has not been secured yet”
Merchandise Sales of £ 22,050,000 is Difficult to Achieve
Fee Negotiation on New Children’s Program
Strategic Analysis
Monte Carlo SimulationShare of merchandise
sales
The drop down of 1% of fees for merchandise
sales
The number of merchandise sold.
Fee Negotiation on New Children’s Program
Analysis of Acceptance
Without Merchandise Right With Merchandise Right
Financial
Choose Option Without Merchandise Right
Low Risk & High BenefitHigh Risk & Uncertain
Benefit
StrategicCertain cash flow despite uncertain
popularity
High Sales Difficult to Achieve
Fee Negotiation on New Children’s Program
Medium and Long Term Recommendation
Medium Term Recommendation : How to foster International sales faster?
Foster international sales and enlarge business line through Digital Media
Proposal To Expand Into Corporate Advertising Video
Proposal To Expand Into Corporate Advertising Video
Issue Description
VYP is being offered corporate advertising as its one of product lines
Opportunity for VYP to obtain profitability from selling corporate ads videos
Proposal To Expand Into Corporate Advertising Video
Financial Analysis
VYP’s Expected Cost Breakdown from Corporate Advertising Video
£ 17,000(£ 5,000)(£ 4,800)(£ 6,000)(£ 1,200)(£ 1,500)
REVENUESTUDIO HIRE
EXPECTED VALUE (£ 700)
ACTORSFILM CREWSCRIPTINGMUSIC
£ 17,000(£ 5,000)(£ 2,800)(£ 6,000)(£ 1,200)(£ 1,500)
COST
40% 60%First Video
Proposal To Expand Into Corporate Advertising Video
Financial Analysis
Corporate Ads Contributes High Margin but the Business Size is Considerably Small
EXPECTED VALUE OF REVENUE All Video £ 17,000
£ 442,000
Production per Year(assumption)
26
2nd and N-th Video £ 1,955
EXPECTED VALUE OF PROFIT 1st Video (£ 700)
£ 48,175
Production per Year(assumption)
26
Proposal To Expand Into Corporate Advertising Video
Financial Analysis
Corporate Ads Contributes High Margin but the Business Size is Considerably Small
Proposal To Expand Into Corporate Advertising Video
Acceptance of Proposal
+
Overall Promising
Profitability
Small Business Size
Accept Proposal As the 4th Priority
Film Crew Cost
Recruit Interns from Film AcademiesProposal To Expand Into Corporate Advertising Video
Recommendation on Implementation
Film Crew Cost Can be Reduced to Increase Profitability
BENEFITS
• Lower cost for film crew
• Becoming a part of VYP’s community work for students
• Becoming a human resources strategy to attract young talents for future full-time employment.
Accident at The Studio
Accident at The Studio
Proposal Background
Accident happened at VYP’s rented studio which arise a concern on health
and safety issue of workforce.
VYP is being exposed to the workplace safety issue
Accident at The Studio
Long-Term Impacts
Long-Term Impacts
Accident at StudioImpact to legal Risk
and Human Resource Risk
Lower Productivity and Credibility
Damage
Accident at The Studio
Recommendation
Recommendation
Develop builders’
working shift
Recruit Interns from Film
Academies
Industry Overview
Company Analysis
Issues Description
Prioritization of Issues and Rationale
Issues Analysis and Recommendation
Action PlanOutline
A NEW DOCUMENTARY BY VYP
RE-COMMISSION NEW DRAMA SERIES
FEE NEGOTIATION ON NEW CHILDREN’S PROGRAM
PROPOSAL TO EXPAND INTO CORPORATE ADVERTISING VIDEO
ACCIDENT AT THE STUDIO
SHORT TERM RECOMMENDATION
LONG TERM RECOMMENDATION
CONTINUE PRODUCTION WITHOUT CUTTING THE INTERVIEW AND CGI
USAGE
MEDIUM TERM RECOMMENDATIONDEVELOP STANDARDIZED
CONTINGENCY PLAN
CREATE UNFORSEEN EXPENSE ACCOUNT
DEVELOP RATING BASED COMMISSION SYSTEM
A NEW DOCUMENTARY BY VYP
RE-COMMISSION NEW DRAMA SERIES
FEE NEGOTIATION ON NEW CHILDREN’S PROGRAM
PROPOSAL TO EXPAND INTO CORPORATE ADVERTISING VIDEO
ACCIDENT AT THE STUDIO
SHORT TERM RECOMMENDATION
LONG TERM RECOMMENDATION
CONTINUE PRODUCTION WITHOUT CUTTING THE INTERVIEW AND CGI
USAGE
MEDIUM TERM RECOMMENDATIONDEVELOP STANDARDIZED
CONTINGENCY PLAN
CREATE UNFORSEEN EXPENSE ACCOUNT
DEVELOP RATING BASED COMMISSION SYSTEM
ACCEPTANCE RECOMMENDATION
ACCEPT THE RE-COMMISION PROPOSAL
IMPLEMENTATION TERMINATE JOHN STRONG’S
CONTRACT
RE-ARRANGE SCENE SHOOTING SCHEDULE
MODIFY THE STORY LINE
A NEW DOCUMENTARY BY VYP
RE-COMMISSION NEW DRAMA SERIES
FEE NEGOTIATION ON NEW CHILDREN’S PROGRAM
PROPOSAL TO EXPAND INTO CORPORATE ADVERTISING VIDEO
ACCIDENT AT THE STUDIO
ACCEPTANCE RECOMMENDATION
ACCEPT THE RE-COMMISION PROPOSAL
IMPLEMENTATION TERMINATE JOHN STRONG’S
CONTRACT
RE-ARRANGE SCENE SHOOTING SCHEDULE
MODIFY THE STORY LINE
ACCEPTANCE RECOMMENDATION
PRODUCE SAMMY SQUIRREL WITHOUT MERCHANDISE RIGHT
FURTHER ACTION RE-NEGOTIATE THE MERCHANDISE RIGHT AND REVENUE TRADE OFF
A NEW DOCUMENTARY BY VYP
RE-COMMISSION NEW DRAMA SERIES
FEE NEGOTIATION ON NEW CHILDREN’S PROGRAM
PROPOSAL TO EXPAND INTO CORPORATE ADVERTISING VIDEO
ACCIDENT AT THE STUDIO
ACCEPTANCE RECOMMENDATION
PRODUCE SAMMY SQUIRREL WITHOUT MERCHANDISE RIGHT
FURTHER ACTION RE-NEGOTIATE THE MERCHANDISE RIGHT AND REVENUE TRADE OFF
ACCEPTANCE RECOMMENDATION
ACCEPT THE PROPOSAL TO EXPAND INTO CORPORATE ADVERTISING VIDEO
IMPLEMENTATIONRECRUIT INTERN FROM FILM
ACADEMY TO REDUCE FILM CREW COST
A NEW DOCUMENTARY BY VYP
RE-COMMISSION NEW DRAMA SERIES
FEE NEGOTIATION ON NEW CHILDREN’S PROGRAM
PROPOSAL TO EXPAND INTO CORPORATE ADVERTISING VIDEO
ACCIDENT AT THE STUDIO
ACCEPTANCE RECOMMENDATION
ACCEPT THE PROPOSAL TO EXPAND INTO CORPORATE ADVERTISING VIDEO
IMPLEMENTATIONRECRUIT INTERN FROM FILM
ACADEMY TO REDUCE FILM CREW COST
RECOMMENDATION
DEVELOP BUILDERS’ WORKING SHIFT
RECRUITS INTERN FROM FILM ACADEMY
APPENDIXCIMA GBC 2012: NUSANTARA CONSULTING
Banks Friend or FoeBanks Friend or Foe
Forecast Revenue £ 290,000.00
Forecasted Margin - Before Use £ 32,000.00
Forecasted Margin - After Use -£ 30,000.00
Initial Forecasted Cost £ 258,000.00 After Plan Cost £ 320,000.00 Forecasted Initial Cost % of Revenue 89%Forecasted After Cost % of Revenue 110%Increase in Cost % if Cont. Project 24%Documentaries - Margin £ 660,000.00 Forecasted Share of Profit Before 4.848%Forecasted Share of Lost After -4.545%
Corporate Ads VideosCorporate Ads
First Video Second and n-th Video40% 60% 40% 60%
Revenue £ 17,000.00 £ 17,000.00 £ 17,000.00 £ 17,000.00
Studio Hire £ 5,000.00 £ 5,000.00 £ 4,250.00 £ 4,250.00
Actors £ 2,800.00 £ 4,800.00 £ 2,380.00 £ 4,080.00
Film Crew £ 6,000.00 £ 6,000.00 £ 5,100.00 £ 5,100.00
Scripting £ 1,200.00 £ 1,200.00 £ 1,020.00 £ 1,020.00
Music £ 1,500.00 £ 1,500.00 £ 1,275.00 £ 1,275.00
Total Cost £ 16,500.00 £ 18,500.00 £ 14,025.00 £ 15,725.00
Operation Margin £ 500.00 -£ 1,500.00 £ 2,975.00 £ 1,275.00
Expected Value £ 200.00 -£ 900.00 £ 1,190.00 £ 765.00 Total EV -£700.00 £1,955.00
Total Revenue 2011 £ 28,609,750.00 Total Oper. Profit 2011 £ 2,572,000.00 Number of Weeks 2Number of Corporate Ads 26Revenue from Video £ 17,000.00 Total Revenue £ 442,000.00 % of Total Revenue 2011 1.54%Profitability £ 48,175.00 % of Total Profitability 2011 1.87%
Comprehensive Income StatementComprehensive Income Statement (in 000 pounds)
Period 30/09/2011 30/09/2011 30/09/2010 30/09/2010Sales Revenue £ 28,609.75 100% £ 20,621.95 100% Documentaries £ 6,701.24 23% £ 6,901.50 33% Drama Series £ 6,820.80 24% £ - 0% Scripted Comedy £ 10,407.96 36% £ 9,840.00 48% General Enter. £ 3,379.75 12% £ 2,970.45 14%Total £ 27,309.75 95% £ 19,711.95 96%International £ 1,300.00 5% £ 910.00 4%Operating Costs £ 25,228.00 88% £ 18,116.00 88% Documentaries £ 6,041.24 21% £ 6,207.50 30% Drama Series £ 6,300.80 22% £ - 0% Scripted Comedy £ 9,422.96 33% £ 8,835.00 43% General Enter. £ 2,972.75 10% £ 2,670.45 13%Total £ 24,737.75 86% £ 17,712.95 86%International £ 490.00 2% £ 405.00 2%Operating Profit £ 3,382.00 12% £ 2,504.00 12% Documentaries £ 660.00 2% £ 694.00 3% Drama Series £ 520.00 2% £ - 0% Scripted Comedy £ 985.00 3% £ 1,005.00 5% General Enter. £ 407.00 1% £ 300.00 1%Total £ 2,572.00 9% £ 1,999.00 10%International £ 810.00 3% £ 505.00 2%Adm. Expenses £ 270.00 1% £ 240.00 1%Finance Costs (net) £ 133.00 0% £ 145.00 1%Tax Expense (30%) £ 894.00 3% £ 636.00 3%Profit for Period £ 2,085.00 7% £ 1,483.00 7%
Analysis of Programes and Revenues
Analysis of Programs and Revenues Sep-11
Programme GenreNo. of Diff. Progs Total Prog. Compl Total No. of Prog Hours
Average Com. Revenue/hour Total Revenue
Documentaries 6 45 36.4 184.1 6701 Drama Series 2 23 16 426.3 6821 Scripted Comedy 4 90 41.4 251.4 10408 General Enter. 6 39 27.5 122.9 3380Total 18 197 121.3 984.7 27310International 1300Total Revenues 28610
Analysis of Programes and Revenues 9/1/2010
Programme GenreNo. of Diff. Progs Total Prog. Compl Total No. of Prog Hours
Average Com. Revenue/hour Total Revenue
Documentaries 5 40 32.1 215 6902 Drama Series 0 0 0 0 0 Scripted Comedy 4 80 32.8 300 9840 General Enter. 5 35 20.5 144.9 2970Total 14 155 85.4 659.9 19712International 910Total Revenues 20622
Sensitivity Analysis - Sensitivity Table (Profitability Analysis of Merchandise Sold and Share of Merchandise
Margin)Sensitivity Analysis - Sensitivity Table (Profitability Analysis of Merchandise Sold and Share of Merchandise Margin)
Merchandise Sold
Ownership Shares of
Merchandise Sales
-£ 12,000.00 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 35,000,000 0% £ 693,000.00 £ 693,000.00 £ 693,000.00 £ 693,000.00 £ 693,000.00 £ 693,000.00 £ 693,000.00 5% £ 479,875.00 £ 542,375.00 £ 604,875.00 £ 667,375.00 £ 729,875.00 £ 792,375.00 £ 854,875.00
10% £ 266,750.00 £ 391,750.00 £ 516,750.00 £ 641,750.00 £ 766,750.00 £ 891,750.00 £ 1,016,750.00 15% £ 53,625.00 £ 241,125.00 £ 428,625.00 £ 616,125.00 £ 803,625.00 £ 991,125.00 £ 1,178,625.00 20%-£ 159,500.00 £ 90,500.00 £ 340,500.00 £ 590,500.00 £ 840,500.00 £ 1,090,500.00 £ 1,340,500.00 25%-£ 372,625.00 -£ 60,125.00 £ 252,375.00 £ 564,875.00 £ 877,375.00 £ 1,189,875.00 £ 1,502,375.00 30%-£ 585,750.00 -£ 210,750.00 £ 164,250.00 £ 539,250.00 £ 914,250.00 £ 1,289,250.00 £ 1,664,250.00 35%-£ 798,875.00 -£ 361,375.00 £ 76,125.00 £ 513,625.00 £ 951,125.00 £ 1,388,625.00 £ 1,826,125.00 40%-£ 1,012,000.00 -£ 512,000.00 -£ 12,000.00 £ 488,000.00 £ 988,000.00 £ 1,488,000.00 £ 1,988,000.00 45%-£ 1,225,125.00 -£ 662,625.00 -£ 100,125.00 £ 462,375.00 £ 1,024,875.00 £ 1,587,375.00 £ 2,149,875.00 50%-£ 1,438,250.00 -£ 813,250.00 -£ 188,250.00 £ 436,750.00 £ 1,061,750.00 £ 1,686,750.00 £ 2,311,750.00 55%-£ 1,651,375.00 -£ 963,875.00 -£ 276,375.00 £ 411,125.00 £ 1,098,625.00 £ 1,786,125.00 £ 2,473,625.00 60%-£ 1,864,500.00 -£ 1,114,500.00 -£ 364,500.00 £ 385,500.00 £ 1,135,500.00 £ 1,885,500.00 £ 2,635,500.00 65%-£ 2,077,625.00 -£ 1,265,125.00 -£ 452,625.00 £ 359,875.00 £ 1,172,375.00 £ 1,984,875.00 £ 2,797,375.00 70%-£ 2,290,750.00 -£ 1,415,750.00 -£ 540,750.00 £ 334,250.00 £ 1,209,250.00 £ 2,084,250.00 £ 2,959,250.00 75%-£ 2,503,875.00 -£ 1,566,375.00 -£ 628,875.00 £ 308,625.00 £ 1,246,125.00 £ 2,183,625.00 £ 3,121,125.00 80%-£ 2,717,000.00 -£ 1,717,000.00 -£ 717,000.00 £ 283,000.00 £ 1,283,000.00 £ 2,283,000.00 £ 3,283,000.00 85%-£ 2,930,125.00 -£ 1,867,625.00 -£ 805,125.00 £ 257,375.00 £ 1,319,875.00 £ 2,382,375.00 £ 3,444,875.00 90%-£ 3,143,250.00 -£ 2,018,250.00 -£ 893,250.00 £ 231,750.00 £ 1,356,750.00 £ 2,481,750.00 £ 3,606,750.00 95%-£ 3,356,375.00 -£ 2,168,875.00 -£ 981,375.00 £ 206,125.00 £ 1,393,625.00 £ 2,581,125.00 £ 3,768,625.00
Sensitivity Analysis - Sensitivity Table (Profitability Analysis of Merchandise Sold and Share of Merchandise
Margin)
Sensitivity Analysis - Sensitivity Table (Profitability Analysis of Merchandise Sold and Share of Merchandise Margin)Merchandise Sold
Ownership Shares of
Merchandise Sales
£ 933,000.00 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 35,000,000 0% £ 693,000.00 £ 693,000.00 £ 693,000.00 £ 693,000.00 £ 693,000.00 £ 693,000.00 £ 693,000.00 5% £ 598,000.00 £ 660,500.00 £ 723,000.00 £ 785,500.00 £ 848,000.00 £ 910,500.00 £ 973,000.00
10% £ 503,000.00 £ 628,000.00 £ 753,000.00 £ 878,000.00 £ 1,003,000.00 £ 1,128,000.00 £ 1,253,000.00 15% £ 408,000.00 £ 595,500.00 £ 783,000.00 £ 970,500.00 £ 1,158,000.00 £ 1,345,500.00 £ 1,533,000.00 20% £ 313,000.00 £ 563,000.00 £ 813,000.00 £ 1,063,000.00 £ 1,313,000.00 £ 1,563,000.00 £ 1,813,000.00 25% £ 218,000.00 £ 530,500.00 £ 843,000.00 £ 1,155,500.00 £ 1,468,000.00 £ 1,780,500.00 £ 2,093,000.00 30% £ 123,000.00 £ 498,000.00 £ 873,000.00 £ 1,248,000.00 £ 1,623,000.00 £ 1,998,000.00 £ 2,373,000.00 35% £ 28,000.00 £ 465,500.00 £ 903,000.00 £ 1,340,500.00 £ 1,778,000.00 £ 2,215,500.00 £ 2,653,000.00 40% -£ 67,000.00 £ 433,000.00 £ 933,000.00 £ 1,433,000.00 £ 1,933,000.00 £ 2,433,000.00 £ 2,933,000.00 45% -£ 162,000.00 £ 400,500.00 £ 963,000.00 £ 1,525,500.00 £ 2,088,000.00 £ 2,650,500.00 £ 3,213,000.00 50% -£ 257,000.00 £ 368,000.00 £ 993,000.00 £ 1,618,000.00 £ 2,243,000.00 £ 2,868,000.00 £ 3,493,000.00 55% -£ 352,000.00 £ 335,500.00 £ 1,023,000.00 £ 1,710,500.00 £ 2,398,000.00 £ 3,085,500.00 £ 3,773,000.00 60% -£ 447,000.00 £ 303,000.00 £ 1,053,000.00 £ 1,803,000.00 £ 2,553,000.00 £ 3,303,000.00 £ 4,053,000.00 65% -£ 542,000.00 £ 270,500.00 £ 1,083,000.00 £ 1,895,500.00 £ 2,708,000.00 £ 3,520,500.00 £ 4,333,000.00 70% -£ 637,000.00 £ 238,000.00 £ 1,113,000.00 £ 1,988,000.00 £ 2,863,000.00 £ 3,738,000.00 £ 4,613,000.00 75% -£ 732,000.00 £ 205,500.00 £ 1,143,000.00 £ 2,080,500.00 £ 3,018,000.00 £ 3,955,500.00 £ 4,893,000.00 80% -£ 827,000.00 £ 173,000.00 £ 1,173,000.00 £ 2,173,000.00 £ 3,173,000.00 £ 4,173,000.00 £ 5,173,000.00 85% -£ 922,000.00 £ 140,500.00 £ 1,203,000.00 £ 2,265,500.00 £ 3,328,000.00 £ 4,390,500.00 £ 5,453,000.00 90% -£ 1,017,000.00 £ 108,000.00 £ 1,233,000.00 £ 2,358,000.00 £ 3,483,000.00 £ 4,608,000.00 £ 5,733,000.00 95% -£ 1,112,000.00 £ 75,500.00 £ 1,263,000.00 £ 2,450,500.00 £ 3,638,000.00 £ 4,825,500.00 £ 6,013,000.00
Sensitivity Analysis - Sensitivity Table (Profitability Analysis of Merchandise Sold and Increase in Share in
Return of Drop of 1% fee)
Sensitivity Analysis - Sensitivity Table (Profitability Analysis of Merchandise Sold and Increase in Share in Return of Drop of 1% fee)Merchandise Sold
Increase in Share in
Return of Drop of 1%
fee
£ 933,000.00 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 35,000,000 2.5% £ 1,130,000.00 £ 1,630,000.00 £ 2,130,000.00 £ 2,630,000.00 £ 3,130,000.00 £ 3,630,000.00 £ 4,130,000.00 7.5% £ 1,004,000.00 £ 1,504,000.00 £ 2,004,000.00 £ 2,504,000.00 £ 3,004,000.00 £ 3,504,000.00 £ 4,004,000.00
12.5% £ 878,000.00 £ 1,378,000.00 £ 1,878,000.00 £ 2,378,000.00 £ 2,878,000.00 £ 3,378,000.00 £ 3,878,000.00 17.5% £ 752,000.00 £ 1,252,000.00 £ 1,752,000.00 £ 2,252,000.00 £ 2,752,000.00 £ 3,252,000.00 £ 3,752,000.00 22.5% £ 626,000.00 £ 1,126,000.00 £ 1,626,000.00 £ 2,126,000.00 £ 2,626,000.00 £ 3,126,000.00 £ 3,626,000.00 27.5% £ 500,000.00 £ 1,000,000.00 £ 1,500,000.00 £ 2,000,000.00 £ 2,500,000.00 £ 3,000,000.00 £ 3,500,000.00 32.5% £ 374,000.00 £ 874,000.00 £ 1,374,000.00 £ 1,874,000.00 £ 2,374,000.00 £ 2,874,000.00 £ 3,374,000.00 37.5% £ 248,000.00 £ 748,000.00 £ 1,248,000.00 £ 1,748,000.00 £ 2,248,000.00 £ 2,748,000.00 £ 3,248,000.00 42.5% £ 122,000.00 £ 622,000.00 £ 1,122,000.00 £ 1,622,000.00 £ 2,122,000.00 £ 2,622,000.00 £ 3,122,000.00 47.5%-£ 4,000.00 £ 496,000.00 £ 996,000.00 £ 1,496,000.00 £ 1,996,000.00 £ 2,496,000.00 £ 2,996,000.00 52.5%-£ 130,000.00 £ 370,000.00 £ 870,000.00 £ 1,370,000.00 £ 1,870,000.00 £ 2,370,000.00 £ 2,870,000.00 57.5%-£ 256,000.00 £ 244,000.00 £ 744,000.00 £ 1,244,000.00 £ 1,744,000.00 £ 2,244,000.00 £ 2,744,000.00 62.5%-£ 382,000.00 £ 118,000.00 £ 618,000.00 £ 1,118,000.00 £ 1,618,000.00 £ 2,118,000.00 £ 2,618,000.00 67.5%-£ 508,000.00 -£ 8,000.00 £ 492,000.00 £ 992,000.00 £ 1,492,000.00 £ 1,992,000.00 £ 2,492,000.00 72.5%-£ 634,000.00 -£ 134,000.00 £ 366,000.00 £ 866,000.00 £ 1,366,000.00 £ 1,866,000.00 £ 2,366,000.00 77.5%-£ 760,000.00 -£ 260,000.00 £ 240,000.00 £ 740,000.00 £ 1,240,000.00 £ 1,740,000.00 £ 2,240,000.00 82.5%-£ 886,000.00 -£ 386,000.00 £ 114,000.00 £ 614,000.00 £ 1,114,000.00 £ 1,614,000.00 £ 2,114,000.00 87.5%-£ 1,012,000.00 -£ 512,000.00 -£ 12,000.00 £ 488,000.00 £ 988,000.00 £ 1,488,000.00 £ 1,988,000.00 92.5%-£ 1,138,000.00 -£ 638,000.00 -£ 138,000.00 £ 362,000.00 £ 862,000.00 £ 1,362,000.00 £ 1,862,000.00 97.5%-£ 1,264,000.00 -£ 764,000.00 -£ 264,000.00 £ 236,000.00 £ 736,000.00 £ 1,236,000.00 £ 1,736,000.00
Monte Carlo Simulation: Success Rate
Monte Carlo Simulation Loss Rate
Monte Carlo Input Assumptions
Name Cell Graph Min Mean Max 5% 95%Errors
Increase in Share in Return of Drop of 1% fee / Merchansise Rights
D21 0.538
0.874
1.247
0.728
1.019 0
Merchandise Selling / Merchansise Rights D22
5,060,823 7,017,707
46,128,980
5,359,363
10,571,620 0
Share of Merchandise Margin / Merchansise Rights
D18 0% 50% 100% 5% 95% 0
Monte Carlo Simulation Sensitivity Results
Rank For D12
Cell Name Description Merchandising!D12Profit / Merchansise RightsRegression Coeff.RSqr=0.966
#1 D18 Share of Merchandise Margin / Merchansise Rights RiskUniform(0,1,RiskStatic(0.4)) -0.926
#2 D21 Increase in Share in Return of Drop of 1% fee / Merchansise Rights
RiskNormal(0.875,0.0875,RiskStatic(0.875)) -0.245
#3 D22 Merchandise Selling / Merchansise Rights
RiskLognorm(2000000,2000000,RiskShift(5000000),RiskStatic(15000000)) 0.218
Distributions Assigned to Inputs
Name Description
Share of Merchandise Margin / Merchansise Rights RiskUniform(0,1,RiskStatic(0.4))
Merchandise Selling / Merchansise Rights
RiskLognorm(2000000,2000000,RiskShift(5000000),RiskStatic(15000000))
Increase in Share in Return of Drop of 1% fee / Merchansise Rights
RiskNormal(0.875,0.0875,RiskStatic(0.875))
Sensitivity Analysis: Merchandise Option
Sensitivity Analysis: Merchandise Option
Sensitivity Analysis: Merchandise Option