Number, Timing, and Duration of Marriages and … recently married, separated, divorced, or become...

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U S C E N S U S B U R E A U Helping You Make Informed Decisions •1902-2002 Demographic Programs U.S. Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. CENSUS BUREAU Number, Timing, and Duration of Marriages and Divorces: 1996 Household Economic Studies Issued February 2002 Current Population Reports By Rose M. Kreider and Jason M. Fields P70-80 INTRODUCTION Evolving patterns of marriage and divorce are at the core of studying changes in family composition and living arrange- ments. The timing of the age at entry into first marriage often reflects the peri- od when people enter adulthood, such as the Great Depression of the 1930s or the economic prosperity of the post-World War II era. Changing views on the accept- ability of cohabitation before marriage, both by the couples and their parents, may delay an eventual marriage or in some cases convince the couple not to marry at all. The likelihood of a couple separating or divorcing may also be influ- enced by changes in the way they con- front and resolve personal issues as well as legislative trends in divorce laws that may make it easier to obtain a divorce than in earlier time periods. Before any causal analysis can occur, it is first necessary to present basic measures of the incidence of marriage and divorce. The last comprehensive portrait from the Census Bureau of marriage and divorce patterns was published almost 10 years ago. 1 Annual reports on the marital status of people in the United States provide estimates of the numbers of married, sep- arated, divorced, and widowed people, 2 but do not provide data on basic items such as the number of times people have 1 Arthur J. Norton and Louisa F. Miller. Marriage, Divorce, and Remarriage in the 1990s. Current Population Reports, P23-180. U.S. Census Bureau: Washington, DC, 1992. 2 Jason Fields. America’s Families and Living Arrangements: March 2000. Current Population Reports, P20-537. U.S. Census Bureau: Washington, DC, 2001. What’s in This Report INTRODUCTION HISTORICAL MARITAL PATTERNS Divorce has increased in recent birth cohorts. MARITAL INDICATORS: 1996 Most adults have married only once. Most people who had ever divorced are currently married. Median age at widowhood is lower for Black and Hispanic women than for White non-Hispanic women. First marriages which end in divorce last 7 to 8 years, on average. Half of those who remarry after a divorce from a first marriage do so within about 3 years. MARITAL EVENTS WITHIN THE LAST YEAR Thirty-one percent of recently mar- ried women live with their own chil- dren, ages 1 to 17. Recently separated and divorced women are more likely to be in poverty than men. College graduates are more likely to marry and less likely to separate. PROJECTIONS OF MARITAL EVENTS Nearly everyone marries. Nearly half of recent first marriages may end in divorce. Most people remarry after divorcing from a first marriage. SUMMARY

Transcript of Number, Timing, and Duration of Marriages and … recently married, separated, divorced, or become...

U S C E N S U S B U R E A UHelping You Make Informed Decisions •1902-2002

Demographic Programs

U.S.Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

Number, Timing, and Duration ofMarriages and Divorces: 1996Household Economic Studies

Issued February 2002

CurrentPopulationReports

By Rose M. Kreider andJason M. Fields

P70-80

INTRODUCTION

Evolving patterns of marriage and divorceare at the core of studying changes infamily composition and living arrange-ments. The timing of the age at entryinto first marriage often reflects the peri-od when people enter adulthood, such asthe Great Depression of the 1930s or theeconomic prosperity of the post-WorldWar II era. Changing views on the accept-ability of cohabitation before marriage,both by the couples and their parents,may delay an eventual marriage or insome cases convince the couple not tomarry at all. The likelihood of a coupleseparating or divorcing may also be influ-enced by changes in the way they con-front and resolve personal issues as wellas legislative trends in divorce laws thatmay make it easier to obtain a divorcethan in earlier time periods.

Before any causal analysis can occur, it isfirst necessary to present basic measuresof the incidence of marriage and divorce.The last comprehensive portrait from theCensus Bureau of marriage and divorcepatterns was published almost 10 yearsago.1 Annual reports on the marital statusof people in the United States provideestimates of the numbers of married, sep-arated, divorced, and widowed people,2

but do not provide data on basic itemssuch as the number of times people have

1 Arthur J. Norton and Louisa F. Miller. Marriage,Divorce, and Remarriage in the 1990s. CurrentPopulation Reports, P23-180. U.S. Census Bureau:Washington, DC, 1992.

2 Jason Fields. America’s Families and LivingArrangements: March 2000. Current PopulationReports, P20-537. U.S. Census Bureau: Washington, DC,2001.

What’s in This Report

INTRODUCTION

HISTORICAL MARITAL PATTERNS

Divorce has increased in recent birthcohorts.

MARITAL INDICATORS: 1996

Most adults have married only once.

Most people who had ever divorcedare currently married.

Median age at widowhood is lowerfor Black and Hispanic women thanfor White non-Hispanic women.

First marriages which end in divorcelast 7 to 8 years, on average.

Half of those who remarry after adivorce from a first marriage do sowithin about 3 years.

MARITAL EVENTS WITHIN THE LAST YEAR

Thirty-one percent of recently mar-ried women live with their own chil-dren, ages 1 to 17.

Recently separated and divorcedwomen are more likely to be inpoverty than men.

College graduates are more likely tomarry and less likely to separate.

PROJECTIONS OF MARITAL EVENTS

Nearly everyone marries.

Nearly half of recent first marriagesmay end in divorce.

Most people remarry after divorcingfrom a first marriage.

SUMMARY

been married and the likelihood ofremarriage. These are important inunderstanding the growing com-plexity of life cycle transitions incurrent American society.

In addition, since the suspension ofthe collection of detailed informa-tion on marriage and divorce by theNational Center for Health Statistics(NCHS) in 1996,3 no comprehensivedata have been available annuallyon the characteristics of people whomarry or divorce in the UnitedStates (about 2.4 million and 1.2million couples, respectively, eachyear). Information on the character-istics of people who had recentlybeen widowed or separated is alsolacking, as there is no nationallycollected and published informationby either the Census Bureau orNCHS on these events.

To address these deficiencies, thisreport analyzes marriage anddivorce patterns in the United Statesusing retrospective marital historyinformation collected in the secondinterview of the 1996 Panel of theSurvey of Income and ProgramParticipation (SIPP).4 Data were col-lected from a nationally representa-tive sample of 37,000 householdsfor people 15 years and over aboutthe number of times they had beenmarried, how their marriages ended,and the month and year of each ofthese marital events (including dateof last separation if divorced), for

2 U.S. Census Bureau

3 Detailed data on marriages and divorceswas last published by NCHS for 1990. Theannouncement of the suspension of this datacollection was published in the FederalRegister Notice, December 15, 1995 (Volume60, Number 241, pp. 64437-64438).

4 Since the data used in this analysis aretaken from retrospective surveys, they maynot accurately reflect past marital eventsoccurring decades before the interview datedue to the respondent’s inability to recallevents and the subsequent mortality or emi-gration of people after the event hasoccurred. These data only reflect the experi-ences of the people who are living at the timeof the survey. To the extent that the experi-ences of the deceased or migrants who leftthe United States are different from the surveypopulation, the estimates have bias.

the first, second, and last marriage.Since less than 1 percent of adultshave been married four or moretimes, few events are missed byusing this approach.5

The first section of this reportshows how generations of men andwomen born since the 1920s have

5 The estimates in this report are based onresponses from a sample of the population. Aswith all surveys, estimates may vary from theactual (population) values because of samplingvariation or other factors. All statements madein this report have undergone statistical testingand meet U.S. Census Bureau standards for sta-tistical accuracy.

entered into and dissolved theirmarriages and how rapidly theyhave remarried. The second sectiondevelops a series of current maritalindicators for men and women 15years and over at the time of thesurvey in 1996. It provides us withanswers to basic questions such ashow many people have been mar-ried more than once and how longa first marriage lasts. The third sec-tion profiles the characteristics ofpeople who experienced a maritalevent in the year prior to the surveyand shows how many people who

Key Terms

Marital status. The marital status classification refers to the statusat time of interview. “Married, spouse present,” applies to husbandand wife if both were living in the same household, even though onemay be temporarily absent on business, vacation, on a visit, in a hos-pital, etc. “Married, spouse absent” relates to people who are separat-ed due to marital problems, as well as husbands and wives who areliving apart because one or the other was employed elsewhere, onduty with the Armed Forces, or any other reasons. “Divorced” indi-cates people who report that they have received a legal divorce decreeand have not remarried. “Widowed” indicates that a person’s last mar-riage ended in the death of their spouse. The term “never married”applies to those who have never been legally married, as well as tothose whose marriages were annulled.

Marital history. A marital history was collected from each person inthe household age 15 and over. There were 69,571 people in the sam-ple, from approximately 37,000 households. Respondents answeredquestions about when they had been married, separated, divorced, andwidowed, if they had experienced these events. Dates for the begin-ning and end of up to three marriages were collected: first marriage,second marriage, and most recent marriage, regardless of whether thiswas the third or later marriage. Since very few people marry more thanthree times, few events are missed by using this approach to data col-lection. Although questions were asked only of people age 15 andover, some people reported marital events as occurring before age 15.

Birth or marriage cohort. A cohort signifies a group of people bornor married in a specified time period: for example, people born from1925 through 1934.

Current age. Age at reference month — the month preceding theinterview.

Median. The median is the value which divides a distribution in twoequal parts; half of the cases falling below this value and half of thecases exceeding this value.

have recently married, separated,divorced, or become widowed areemployed, living in poverty, andown their homes. In the last sectionof the report, life table methodolo-gy is used to project the proportionof young people in 1996 who mayexperience particular marital eventsduring their lifetime.

HISTORICAL MARITALPATTERNS

A higher percentage of menand women in recent birthcohorts have ever divorced.

Because people born in a short,specified period of time (a birthcohort) experience similar histori-cal circumstances as they movethrough the life cycle, it is usefulto compare the marital patterns ofdifferent birth cohorts to tracktrends over time. There have beendelays in marriage as well asincreases in divorce during thetime period covered in this reportwhich starts with the 1925 to1934 birth cohort who formed theforefront of adults who parentedthe post-war baby boom of 1946to 1964.6 In Table 1, the 1945 to1954 and 1955 to 1964 cohortsencompass the baby boom.

Since the youngest of the 1955 to1964 birth cohort were age 32 in1996, and most first marriageshappen before age 30,7 this cohortis the most recent available cohortwhere delays in marriage areexamined. The proportion of menever married by age 25 droppedfrom 68 percent for the 1925 to1934 birth cohort to 49 percent forthe 1955 to 1964 birth cohort. Forwomen the corresponding declinewas from 84 percent to 63 percent.

U.S. Census Bureau 3

6 The baby boom encompasses the period1946 to 1964, characterized by high fertilityand early entry into married life.

7 Jason Fields. America’s Families and LivingArrangements: March 2000. CurrentPopulation Reports, P20-537. U.S. CensusBureau: Washington, DC, 2001.

There were also pronounceddeclines in the proportions evermarried by age 30 from the 1925to 1934 birth cohort to the 1955to 1964 birth cohort: from 85 per-cent to 69 percent for men andfrom 92 percent to 79 percent forwomen. While more men andwomen are delaying marriage,most will probably marry.

Some members of the 1955 to1964 cohort have yet to livethrough the ages in which manydivorces and remarriages occur, socomparisons of divorce and remar-riage are limited to the early babyboom cohort (1945 to 1954). Byage 40, only about 15 percent ofmen and women born from 1925to 1934 had been divorced, whileamong those born from 1945 to1954, 31 percent of men and 34 percent of women had beendivorced.

The rise in divorce also means thata higher percentage of people inmore recent cohorts were able tomarry twice during their lives. Forexample, the percentage of menage 40 who have been marriedtwice rose from 11 percent forthose born from 1925 to 1934 to22 percent for men born from1945 to 1954. The correspondingincrease for women married twiceby age 40 was from 12 percentand 23 percent. This change coin-cides with changes in divorcewhere the proportions everdivorced in the 1945 to 1954 birthcohort were double the correspon-ding proportions in the 1925 to1934 birth cohort for both menand women.

Marriages which began laterin the twentieth century didnot last as long.

How long do marriages last? Theretrospective data from the SIPPhelp track the longevity of mar-riages that were entered into over

the past several decades.8 Table 2and Figure 1 show that the propor-tions of both men and womenreaching various anniversariesdeclined from marriages begun inthe late 1940s to marriages begunin the early 1980s. These trendsare illustrated by comparing themarital histories of women whofirst married in 1945 to 1949 withlater marriage cohorts: 90 percentreached their tenth anniversarycompared with only 73 percent ofthose who first married in 1980 to1984; 81 percent reached theirtwentieth anniversary comparedwith only 56 percent of those whofirst married in 1970 to 1974; and70 percent reached their thirtiethanniversary compared with only 55 percent of those who first mar-ried in 1950 to 1964. For women,second marriages entered in 1975through 1984 were less likely toreach their tenth anniversary thanwere first marriages during thesame time period.

In summary, the general marital pat-tern for the last half of the twenti-eth century can be described byboth delays in marriage and a peri-od of a rapid increase in the likeli-hood of divorce (see Table 1).Decreases in the duration of mar-riages also reflect the rise in divorcerates during the 1970s and 1980s,which leveled off in the 1990s (seeTable 2).9

8 These statistics are computed on the basisof people surviving to the survey date. Thusmortality, which could be considerable for theearlier birth cohorts, has not been taken intoconsideration. Estimates from Vital Statisticspublications suggest that there were about 1.2million first marriages occurring annually in the1950s or about 6 million for any 5-year period.SIPP estimates fall short of that number, moreso for men than women because of the highermortality among men. (National Center forHealth Statistics, Vital Statistics of the UnitedStates 1960, Vol. III–Marriage and Divorce. U.S.Department of Health, Education and Welfare:Washington, DC, 1964, pp. 1-31).

9 Joshua R. Goldstein. “The Leveling ofDivorce in the United States,” Demography, Vol.36 (1999), p 409-414.

4 U.S. Census Bureau

Table 1.Marital History by Sex for Selected Birth Cohorts, 1925-34 to 1965-74: Fall 1996

Characteristic 1925 to 1934 1935 to 1944 1945 to 1954 1955 to 1964 1965 to 1974

MEN (in thousands) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Percent ever married by:20 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .40 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .50 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .60 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Percent ever divorced by:20 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .40 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .50 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .60 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Percent married two times or more by:25 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .40 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .50 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .60 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

WOMEN (in thousands) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Percent ever married by:20 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .40 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .50 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .60 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Percent ever divorced by:20 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .40 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .50 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .60 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Percent married two times or more by:25 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .40 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .50 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .60 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

8,668

20.467.784.789.991.993.093.794.5

0.73.46.9

11.115.118.321.324.4

1.74.27.2

10.614.117.722.0

10,374

50.383.591.593.794.795.295.696.0

2.05.08.6

12.516.019.121.523.7

3.26.19.1

12.114.717.320.4

11,446

25.569.984.788.991.392.994.1

(X)

0.54.9

11.920.025.729.532.3

(X)

2.16.3

12.518.422.625.6

(X)

12,157

51.982.890.092.594.395.095.3

(X)

2.06.9

13.220.326.529.632.2

(X)

4.07.7

12.417.320.923.6

(X)

18,094

24.862.377.083.987.9

(X)(X)(X)

1.18.4

18.225.731.3

(X)(X)(X)

3.09.9

17.022.3

(X)(X)(X)

18,664

44.975.484.188.590.9

(X)(X)(X)

2.411.421.328.633.9

(X)(X)(X)

5.211.418.022.8

(X)(X)(X)

22,019

18.649.169.2

(X)(X)(X)(X)(X)

1.38.2

15.8(X)(X)(X)(X)(X)

2.88.4(X)(X)(X)(X)(X)

22,624

33.663.478.8

(X)(X)(X)(X)(X)

3.012.019.9

(X)(X)(X)(X)(X)

5.512.3

(X)(X)(X)(X)(X)

18,666

11.3(X)(X)(X)(X)(X)(X)(X)

0.8(X)(X)(X)(X)(X)(X)(X)

1.5(X)(X)(X)(X)(X)(X)

18,955

25.2(X)(X)(X)(X)(X)(X)(X)

2.0(X)(X)(X)(X)(X)(X)(X)

3.5(X)(X)(X)(X)(X)(X)

X Cohort had not lived to stated age at the time of the survey.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), 1996 Panel, Wave 2 Topical Module.

MARITAL INDICATORS: In 1996, 31 percent of men and ages at which most people marry.1996 24 percent of women age 15 and Among the population 20 to 24

over had never married (see Table years old, 82 percent of men andThe previous section describes the3). Among teenagers (age 15 to 67 percent of women had neverchanging patterns of marriage and19), 99 percent of males and married — a difference of 15 per-divorce experienced by birth97 percent of females were never centage points. For 30-to-34 yearcohorts from 1925 to 1934 throughmarried. For people age 50 and olds, the difference was 10 percent-1955 to 1964. This section pres-over, only a small proportion of age points (29 percent as comparedents the current marital situation ofmen and women had never mar- with 19 percent). However, for theadults by age in 1996 and providesried, 5 percent or less. An older 40-to-49 year age group, the differ-information on the number of timesaverage age at first marriage for ence was only 3 percentage points married and divorced, the ages atmen is reflected in the difference (12 percent compared with 9 per-which these events occurred, thebetween the percent never married cent). duration of marriages, and thefor men and women during therapidity of remarriage.

U.S. Census Bureau 5

Table 2.Percent Reaching Stated Anniversary by Marriage Cohort and Sex of Spouse for First andSecond Marriages: Fall 1996(Limited to spouses surviving to the interview date)

Sex and yearof marriage

Number ofmarriages

(In thousands)

1Anniversary

5th 10th 15th 20th 25th 30th 35th 40th

FIRST MARRIAGES

Men1945 to 1949 . . . . . . . . .1950 to 1954 . . . . . . . . .1955 to 1959 . . . . . . . . .1960 to 1964 . . . . . . . . .1965 to 1969 . . . . . . . . .1970 to 1974 . . . . . . . . .1975 to 1979 . . . . . . . . .1980 to 1984 . . . . . . . . .1985 to 1989 . . . . . . . . .

Women1945 to 1949 . . . . . . . . .1950 to 1954 . . . . . . . . .1955 to 1959 . . . . . . . . .1960 to 1964 . . . . . . . . .1965 to 1969 . . . . . . . . .1970 to 1974 . . . . . . . . .1975 to 1979 . . . . . . . . .1980 to 1984 . . . . . . . . .1985 to 1989 . . . . . . . . .

SECOND MARRIAGES

Men1975 to 1979 . . . . . . . . .1980 to 1984 . . . . . . . . .1985 to 1989 . . . . . . . . .

Women1975 to 1979 . . . . . . . . .1980 to 1984 . . . . . . . . .1985 to 1989 . . . . . . . . .

3,6344,0094,7065,1536,5387,3327,1967,6797,954

5,3365,1955,2935,6577,2228,1888,0068,3498,347

2,1782,8002,669

2,3012,9373,016

94.796.894.294.490.587.486.386.587.6

95.094.694.692.690.086.785.486.486.4

89.387.686.7

82.484.183.0

90.890.586.482.276.371.871.273.9(NA)

90.289.287.582.176.170.769.673.0(NA)

68.969.0(NA)

63.864.2(NA)

86.585.278.774.266.162.862.3(NA)(NA)

86.182.978.772.065.462.061.4(NA)(NA)

(NA)(NA)(NA)

(NA)(NA)(NA)

82.580.473.667.461.057.7(NA)(NA)(NA)

81.277.271.763.759.455.9(NA)(NA)(NA)

(NA)(NA)(NA)

(NA)(NA)(NA)

79.376.669.662.756.5(NA)(NA)(NA)(NA)

75.371.966.358.653.8(NA)(NA)(NA)(NA)

(NA)(NA)(NA)

(NA)(NA)(NA)

76.073.565.858.9(NA)(NA)(NA)(NA)(NA)

70.465.962.355.1(NA)(NA)(NA)(NA)(NA)

(NA)(NA)(NA)

(NA)(NA)(NA)

72.970.662.9(NA)(NA)(NA)(NA)(NA)(NA)

65.261.158.2(NA)(NA)(NA)(NA)(NA)(NA)

(NA)(NA)(NA)

(NA)(NA)(NA)

70.867.4(NA)(NA)(NA)(NA)(NA)(NA)(NA)

59.056.1(NA)(NA)(NA)(NA)(NA)(NA)(NA)

(NA)(NA)(NA)

(NA)(NA)(NA)

NA Not applicable.

1Persons reaching stated anniversary for specified marital order.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), 1996 Panel, Wave 2 Topical Module.

Black men and women age 25to 29 are less likely to bemarried than White non-Hispanics and Hispanics.

Black men and women age 25 to 29were more likely to be never mar-ried than their White non-Hispanicand Hispanic counterparts (seeFigures 2a and 2b).10 Sixty-two per-cent of Black men age 25 to 29 in1996 had never married, comparedwith about 45 percent of White non-Hispanic and Hispanic men. Amongwomen, 58 percent of Blacks in thisage group (25 to 29) were nevermarried, compared with 31 percentof White non-Hispanic and Hispanicwomen. Among Asians and PacificIslanders in this age group, a muchhigher proportion of men than ofwomen were never married, 68 per-cent and 42 percent, respectively.While about 6 percent or fewerWhite non-Hispanic and Hispanicmen and women and Black womenage 55 and over were never mar-ried, this figure was 9 percent forBlack men of the same age.

Most adults have married only once.

In 1996, 69 percent of men and 76 percent of women age 15 and overhad been married at least once — 54 percent of men and 60 percent ofwomen had married once, 13 percentof men and women had marriedtwice, and 3 percent had marriedthree or more times (see Table 3). Intotal, 55 percent of men and 51 per-cent of women age 15 and over werecurrently married and in their first orsecond marriage in 1996.

6 U.S. Census Bureau

10 Because Hispanics may be of any race,data in this report for Hispanics overlapslightly with data for the Black populationand for the Asian and Pacific islander popu-lation. Based on the adult population sur-veyed in the SIPP in Wave 2, 1996 Panel,10.5 percent of the White population, 4.98percent of the Black population and 3.38percent of the Asian and Pacific Islanderpopulation are also of Hispanic origin. Datafor the American Indian and Alaska Nativepopulation are not shown in this reportbecause of the small sample size in the SIPP.

Figure 3 shows the number of times married twice, compared with married for adults age 45 and over, 16 percent of Hispanics and 20 per-by race and ethnicity. When consid- cent of both White non-Hispanicsering adults age 45 and over, differ- and Blacks. No more than 6 percentences among the groups due to the in any race or ethnic group had mar-timing of the event are reduced since ried three or more times.most marriages occur before age 45.About 5 percent of White non- Most people who had ever

divorced are currentlyHispanics and Asians and Pacificmarried.Islanders age 45 and over had never

married, compared with 7 percent of In 1996, 20 percent of men and Hispanics and 10 percent of Blacks. 22 percent of women age 15 andA majority of adults had been mar- over had ever been divorced. Lessried only once — 74 percent of than half were still divorced (8 per-Hispanics, 70 percent of White non- cent of men and 10 percent ofHispanics, and 65 percent of Blacks. women). The percent ever divorcedAsians and Pacific Islanders were the was highest among men 40 to 59most likely to have been married years old (35 percent) and amongonly once — 84 percent, in part due women 40 to 49 years old (37 per-to lower levels of divorce. cent). Lower proportions ever

divorced among people age 60 andThe percentage of Asians and Pacific

over than among those 40 to 59 areIslanders who have married more

in part a result of the fact that thesethan once corresponds with the rela-

people represent the cohort whichtively high percentage who have

started families during the babymarried only once. For adults age

boom period of the 1950s and45 and over, only 10 percent of

1960s when divorce was not asAsians and Pacific Islanders have

common and divorce laws were

Figure 1.Percent of Women Who Had Celebrated Stated Anniversary by First Marriage Cohort: Fall 1996

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), 1996 Panel, Wave 2 Topical Module.

0

20

40

60

80

100

40th35th30th25th20th15th10th5th

Percent

Anniversary

1965 to 1969

1945 to 1949

1950 to 1954

1955 to 19591960 to 1964

more restrictive. Also, this differ-ence for people age 60 and over isin part due to higher mortality ratesamong divorced people,11 as these

U.S. Census Bureau 7

11 Lee Lillard and Linda Waite. “Til Death DoUs Part: Marital Disruptions and Mortality,”American Journal of Sociology. Vol.100 (1995),pp. 1131-1156.

percentages reflect the marital sta-tus only of people who have sur-vived to the survey date.

The percent of adults in 1996 whohad ever been widowed was higherfor women than for men (12 versus4 percent), reflecting the higher

mortality rates for men.12 Of thetwo people in a given married cou-ple, the man is more likely to diefirst. In addition, since husbandsare generally older than their wives,

12 United States Life Tables, 1998. VitalStatistics of the U.S. National Center for HealthStatistics. Hyattsville, MD.

Table 3.Marital History for People 15 Years Old and Over by Age and Sex: Fall 1996

Total, 15 yearsand over

70Characteristic 90-percent 15 20 25 30 35 40 50 60 years

Esti- confidence to 19 to 24 to 29 to 34 to 39 to 49 to 59 to 69 andmate interval years years years years years years years years over

MEN

Total (Inthousands) . . . . . . 99,005 98,090 - 99,920 9,680 8,658 9,445 10,568 11,138 19,381 12,157 9,038 8,940

Percent . . . . . . . . . . 100.0 - 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Never married . . . . 30.6 30.0 - 31.2 99.0 81.7 48.6 28.7 19.2 12.0 5.3 5.2 4.4Ever married. . . . . . 69.4 68.8 - 70.0 1.0 18.3 51.4 71.3 80.8 88.0 94.7 94.8 95.6

Married once . . . 53.8 53.2 - 54.4 1.0 17.8 48.8 62.2 64.9 63.3 65.5 70.5 73.9Still married1. . 44.4 43.8 - 45.0 0.8 16.2 41.8 53.0 54.0 51.6 54.5 59.1 55.5

Married twice . . . 12.6 12.2 - 13.0 - 0.5 2.4 8.4 13.8 20.0 22.1 18.7 17.0Still married1. . 10.1 9.7 - 10.5 - 0.4 2.0 7.1 11.1 16.0 17.5 15.4 12.6

Married three ormore times . . . . 3.1 2.9 - 3.3 - - 0.2 0.7 2.1 4.8 7.0 5.6 4.7Still married1. . 2.3 2.1 - 2.5 - - 0.2 0.5 1.8 3.8 5.1 4.4 3.2

Ever divorced . . . . . 20.4 19.9 - 20.9 - 1.3 7.3 16.1 24.3 34.1 35.7 26.8 18.0Currently

divorced. . . . . . . 8.2 7.8 - 8.6 - 0.9 5.2 8.1 10.8 13.9 13.1 9.2 4.5Ever widowed. . . . . 3.9 3.7 - 4.1 - - 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.2 3.5 9.2 25.1

Currentlywidowed . . . . . . 2.6 2.4 - 2.8 - - 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.6 1.9 5.1 18.6

WOMEN

Total (Inthousands) . . . . . . 106,477 105,562 - 107,392 9,253 8,749 9,725 10,769 11,342 20,029 12,982 10,400 13,228

Percent . . . . . . . . . . 100.0 - 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Never married . . . . 23.6 23.1 - 24.1 96.6 67.0 35.3 18.7 14.1 8.6 5.0 3.7 4.2Ever married. . . . . . 76.4 75.9 - 76.9 3.4 33.0 64.7 81.3 85.9 91.4 95.0 96.3 95.8

Married once . . . 59.9 59.3 - 60.5 3.4 31.7 58.8 68.5 66.8 65.8 69.4 74.7 76.2Still married1. . 42.0 41.4 - 42.6 3.0 27.4 48.9 57.0 53.3 49.2 50.3 48.4 28.1

Married twice . . . 13.4 13.0 - 13.8 - 1.2 5.5 11.4 16.0 20.6 19.3 17.3 16.0Still married1. . 9.1 8.7 - 9.5 - 1.1 4.6 9.6 12.0 15.5 13.2 10.5 6.0

Married three ormore times . . . . 3.1 2.9 - 3.3 - - 0.4 1.4 3.1 5.0 6.3 4.3 3.6Still married1. . 1.8 1.6 - 2.0 - - 0.3 1.1 2.3 3.4 3.9 2.4 0.9

Ever divorced . . . . . 22.2 21.7 - 22.7 - 3.2 12.2 20.8 27.8 37.0 34.6 26.1 16.7Currently

divorced. . . . . . . 10.3 9.9 - 10.7 - 2.1 7.1 9.5 12.8 17.2 16.6 11.5 5.6Ever widowed. . . . . 12.1 11.7 - 12.5 - 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.8 10.7 25.5 58.3

Currentlywidowed . . . . . . 10.5 10.1 - 10.9 - 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.0 2.6 8.2 21.6 54.5

- Represents or rounds to zero.

1Includes those currently separated.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), 1996 Panel, Wave 2 Topical Module.

there are more likely to be higherproportions of widowed womenthan widowed men of the sameage. Most women age 70 and overin 1996 had been widowed (58 per-cent), compared with only 25 per-cent of men age 70 and over. Mostpeople in this age group who hadexperienced widowhood were cur-rently widowed (19 percent of menand 55 percent of women).

Differences in spousal agesare changing.

Women are 2.5 years younger thantheir husbands, on average (seeTable 4). For first marriages, anincreased percentage of womenare the same age or older than themen they marry. About 38 percentof women in their first marriage,who married between 1945 and1964, were the same age or olderthan their husbands, comparedwith 48 percent of currently mar-ried women in their first marriagewho married between 1970 and1989 (see Table 4).

For second marriages from 1960through 1989, both husbands andwives are more likely to be 5 ormore years older or younger thantheir spouse than those in first mar-riages. Spouses in their secondmarriages are about twice as likelyto have at least a 5-year age gap aspeople in their first marriage, 40 percent and less than 20 percentrespectively.

Median age at widowhood islower for Black and Hispanicwomen than for White non-Hispanic women.

Table 5 shows the median age formarital events associated with firstand second marriages for thosewho have experienced these events.The median age at first marriagewas between 21 and 22 for Whitenon-Hispanic, Black, and Hispanicwomen. Their median age at

8 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 2a.Percent Never Married by Age, Race, and Ethnicity for Men: Fall 1996

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), 1996 Panel, Wave 2 Topical Module.

White non-HispanicBlackAsian and Pacific IslanderHispanic (of any race)

45

30

2016

75

68

41

11 13

3 2

62

43

37

29

17

9

46

26

17

129

4

55 and over45-5440-4435-3930-3425-29

Age group

Figure 2b.Percent Never Married by Age, Race, and Ethnicity for Women: Fall 1996

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), 1996 Panel, Wave 2 Topical Module.

White non-HispanicBlackAsian and Pacific IslanderHispanic (of any race)

31

20

139 9

7

42

18

53

86

58

3934

25

16

7

31

1411

8 64

55 and over45-5440-4435-3930-3425-29

Age group

separation from first marriage years for Black women, it was con-ranged from 28 to 29 years, and siderably higher for White non-their median age at divorce from Hispanic women (60 years). Thefirst marriage was about 29 years median age at first marriage forfor women (see Table 5). For men Asian and Pacific Islander men andin the population overall, median women was several years higherage at first marriage was about 2 than for the other race and ethnicyears older than for women. On groups — 24 years for women andaverage, men were also about 2 27 years for men. The median ageyears older than women when they at separation from first marriageseparated and divorced from their was also higher for Asian andfirst marriage. Pacific Islander women than for

White non-Hispanic women. The median age at first widowhoodfor Blacks as compared with White Half of those who remarried after anon-Hispanic women differed wide- divorce from a first marriage hadly. This difference reflects higher done so by their early 30s. Amongmortality rates for Black men as those who by 1996 had married acompared with White non-Hispanic second time, the median age at sec-men. While the median age at wid- ond marriage was 32 years forowhood from first marriage was 50 women and 34 years for men.

These differences may be partlyexplained by age differences in spe-cific population subgroups in addi-tion to actual variations in age-specific marital behavior. Migrationof people from other countries tothe United States may also con-tribute to the variation in medianage at marriage since migrants maymarry at different ages than thenative born, depending on whenand why they migrated.

First marriages which end indivorce last 7 to 8 years, onaverage.

How long do marriages last andhow quickly do people remarry?Table 6 shows the median numberof years a first marriage lastedwhich ended in divorce was about 8years for men and women overall.The median time from marriage toseparation was shorter, at about 6.6years with about 1 year betweenseparation and divorce.

Half of those who remarryafter a divorce from a firstmarriage do so within about 3 years.

Table 6 also shows the medianduration of the time between thedivorce from a first marriage and asecond marriage, for those whoremarried. Half of the men andwomen who remarried after divorc-ing from their first marriage did soin about 3 years.

The median duration of secondmarriages that ended in divorcewas shorter than for first marriagesending in divorce. The medianduration for these marriages wasabout 7 years for men and women.

Five percent of marriedcouples in 1996 had beenmarried 50 years or more.

While previous sections examinedthe intervals between different mari-tal events among people who hadexperienced a marital disruption by

U.S. Census Bureau 9

Figure 3.Number of Times Married for People 45 Years Old and Over by Race and Ethnicity: Fall 1996

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), 1996 Panel, Wave 2 Topical Module.

White non-HispanicBlackAsian and Pacific IslanderHispanic (of any race)

7

74

16

35

84

10

2

10

65

21

45

70

20

6

Married 3+ Married twiceMarried onceNever married

(Percent)

1996, this section looks at the dura-tion of the most recent marriage forthose couples currently married atthe time of the survey in 1996.Table 7 shows the proportion of mar-ried couples in 1996 who hadreached various anniversaries.13 In1996, 82 percent of all currentlymarried couples had achieved atleast their fifth anniversary, 52 per-cent had been married at least 15years, and 20 percent had passedtheir thirty-fifth anniversary. A smallpercentage of currently married cou-ples had passed their golden (fifti-eth) anniversary — 5 percent.

The percent reaching particularanniversaries was generally lowerfor Black and Hispanic women thanfor White non-Hispanic women.Higher rates of divorce for Blacks

10 U.S. Census Bureau

13 Data for currently married couples areshown by race and ethnicity of the wife. Onlydata for women are shown because these arecurrently married couples, and men and womenhave the same duration of marriage.

and the more youthful age distribu-tion for Hispanics contribute to thisdifference.

MARITAL EVENTS WITHINTHE LAST YEAR

With the reduction in published dataon marriage and divorce statistics bythe National Center for HealthStatistics (NCHS), basic informationon the age, race, and educationalattainment level of people experienc-ing marital events each year hasbeen lost since 1990.14 This sectionof the report attempts to fill this gapby showing the characteristics ofmen and women who had a marital

14 In addition, NCHS has recently stoppedthe publication of annual estimates of divorces.“Aggregated one-month and cumulative divorcenumbers and rates as well as the 12-monthnumber have been dropped because of theirvery limited usefulness when based on lessthan the full complement of States.” “Births,Marriages, Divorces and Deaths: ProvisionalData for 1999,” National Vital Statistics Reports.Vol. 48, Number 19, February 22, 2001.

event in the 12-month period priorto the survey in fall 1996.

Estimates of the number of mar-riages and divorces in the last yearfrom the SIPP are reasonably closeto those shown in the Vital Statisticsreports published by NCHS. For1996, NCHS estimated the totalnumber of marriages at 2,319,000.Using survey questions on the datesof prior marital events, SIPP datayield 2,252,000 marriages for menand 2,284,000 marriages forwomen. These numbers are 97 and98 percent, respectively, of the totalestimated by NCHS. While the SIPPestimate of the number of mar-riages is quite close, it underesti-mates the number of divorces.NCHS estimated the total number ofdivorces at 1,154,000 for 1996. Incomparison, SIPP data estimated969,000 divorces for men and1,058,000 divorces for women, ashort fall of approximately 96,000

Table 4.Currently Married Women by Age Relative to Husband’s Age: Fall 1996

Year of marriage

Average age atmarriages (in years)

Age gap(in years)

Percent distribution by marriage cohort

Men Women

Wife morethan 5years

youngerthan

husband

Wife 2 to 5years Wife 2 to 5

younger Wife within yearsthan 1 year of older than

husband husband husband

Wife morethan 5

years olderthan

husband

FIRST MARRIAGES

1940 to 1944. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1945 to 1949. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1950 to 1954. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1955 to 1959. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1960 to 1964. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1965 to 1969. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1970 to 1974. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1975 to 1979. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1980 to 1984. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1985 to 1989. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

SECOND MARRIAGES

1960 to 1964. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1965 to 1969. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1970 to 1974. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1975 to 1979. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1980 to 1984. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1985 to 1989. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

23.624.224.224.024.124.324.425.026.027.1

33.332.736.737.737.238.5

21.221.521.521.321.421.922.523.024.024.9

32.831.034.434.835.035.7

2.32.72.62.72.52.42.32.22.32.1

2.82.52.94.13.73.4

12.917.315.617.414.414.014.314.115.816.0

29.030.029.335.834.732.5

44.844.545.745.045.543.236.937.337.534.9

28.025.328.428.224.926.5

34.630.532.430.234.535.440.940.636.236.5

23.118.419.119.121.320.3

6.97.05.26.54.46.86.46.38.8

10.0

11.319.114.711.113.813.8

0.80.71.01.01.20.71.51.81.82.6

8.57.18.55.85.27.0

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), 1996 Panel, Wave 2 Topical Module.

to 185,000 divorces, or 8 to 16 per- one marital status to another. For is especially important when look-cent of the Vital Statistics total. example, what is the housing situa- ing at employment status, tenure,

tion of newlyweds, the proportion and family status. Although NCHS data may provide a

of separated people who continuemore complete picture of the aggre-

to live with their children, or the Thirty-one percent of recentlygate estimates of marriages and married women live with theireconomic situation of recentlydivorces, the strength of SIPP data own children, ages 1 to 17.divorced or widowed people?is in its provision of age-specific

These statistics can more clearly Over 80 percent of recently marriedmarital transition rates and other

define the issues and needs of the men and women are age 15 to 44characteristics of the people experi-

10 million people in 1996 who (see Table 8). Most work full time,encing these events. In addition,

experienced a marital transition. and half rent their homes. While there is no vital registration system 19 percent of recently married menrecording the characteristics of peo- When considering differences live with own children whose birthple whose marriage ended in wid- among those who had a recent mar- preceded the most recent marriageowhood nor for people who had a riage, separation, or divorce as (age 1 to 17), 31 percent of recentlymarital separation. compared with those who were married women live with own chil-

widowed, it is helpful to keep in dren age 1 to 17. When step childrenDeveloping a profile of people withmind that the majority of men and are included, the percentage ofrecent marital events can provide awomen recently widowed are older recently married men and womenglimpse of the living situation ofthan most of the men and women who live with own children age 1 topeople after their transition fromwho had other marital events. Age 17 is the same — about 30 percent.

U.S. Census Bureau 11

Table 5.Median Age at Marital Event for People 15 Years Old and Over by Sex and Race andEthnicity: Fall 1996(Median age in years for those who experienced the specified event)

CharacteristicTotal White

Whitenon-Hispanic Black

Asian andPacific

IslanderHispanic

(of any race)

MEN

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

First MarriageAge when married. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Age when separated1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Age when divorced . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Age when widowed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Second MarriageAge when married. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Age when separated1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Age when divorced . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Age when widowed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

WOMEN

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

First MarriageAge when married. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Age when separated1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Age when divorced . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Age when widowed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Second MarriageAge when married. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Age when separated1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Age when divorced . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Age when widowed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

40.0

23.529.330.559.6

34.037.239.362.3

41.3

21.327.829.057.8

32.035.237.059.0

41.5

23.429.230.360.3

33.937.239.062.8

43.3

21.327.528.859.3

31.734.936.859.4

40.7

23.329.230.360.8

33.937.239.163.1

42.3

21.227.528.759.7

31.834.836.759.5

36.6

24.230.332.354.0

36.139.342.5

(B)

37.8

21.828.830.850.3

34.937.240.356.5

37.5

26.730.531.6

(B)

36.7(B)(B)(B)

38.7

24.130.031.353.8

34.3(B)(B)(B)

33.8

23.829.631.049.7

33.936.037.7

(B)

35.0

21.427.829.151.7

31.836.339.0

(B)

B Base less than 100,000. Median not calculated.

1For those who divorced.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), 1996 Panel, Wave 2 Topical Module.

12 U.S. Census Bureau

Table 6.Median Duration of Marriages for People 15 Years Old and Over by Sex and Race andEthnicity: Fall 1996(Duration in years)

SubjectTotal White

Whitenon-Hispanic Black

Asian andPacific

IslanderHispanic

(of any race)

Duration of first marriage for those whose firstmarriage ended in divorceMen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Women . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Duration between first marriage and firstseparation for those who separatedMen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Women . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Duration between first separation and firstdivorce for those who divorcedMen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Women . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Duration between first divorce and remarriagefor those whose first marriages ended indivorce and who had remarriedMen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Women . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Duration of second marriage for those whosesecond marriage ended in divorceMen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Women . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

7.87.9

6.66.6

0.80.8

3.33.1

7.36.8

7.87.8

6.66.6

0.80.8

3.23.1

7.26.6

7.87.8

6.66.6

0.80.8

3.23.0

7.26.6

8.38.3

6.76.5

1.01.1

4.14.1

9.88.3

7.88.0

6.17.0

0.80.8

3.53.4

(B)(B)

7.68.0

6.26.4

0.90.9

3.43.3

7.5(B)

B Base less than 100,000. Median duration not shown.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), 1996 Panel, Wave 2.

Table 7.Currently Married Women Who Had Celebrated Selected Anniversaries by Race andEthnicity: Fall 1996(Numbers in thousands)

CharacteristicAnniversary

5th 10th 15th 25th 35th 50th

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Non-Hispanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Asian and Pacific Islander . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Hispanic (of any race) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Percent

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Non-Hispanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Asian and Pacific Islander . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Hispanic (of any race) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

45,99640,69137,077

3,1251,814

3,911

81.682.182.676.981.7

76.8

36,75132,75230,192

2,3401,355

2,792

65.266.167.357.661.0

54.8

29,36026,36024,443

1,7581,019

2,083

52.153.254.543.245.9

40.9

18,57116,95715,918

979520

1,099

33.034.235.524.123.4

21.6

11,03110,186

9,741522257

480

19.620.521.712.811.6

9.4

2,7312,5612,520

11538

51

4.85.25.62.81.7

1.0

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), 1996 Panel, Wave 2 Topical Module.

U.S. Census Bureau 13

Table 8.Characteristics of People 15 Years Old and Over With a Marital Event Within the LastYear: Fall 1996(Data include first and higher order events)

Characteristic attime of interview

Marital events within the last year

Men Women

MarriageSepara-

tionWidow- Separa-

Divorce hood Marriage tion DivorceWidow-

hood

Total (in thousands) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Percent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Race and EthnicityWhite . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Non-Hispanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Asian and Pacific Islander . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Hispanic (of any race) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Age15 to 24 years old . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25 to 44 years old . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45 to 64 years old . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 years and over . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Educational AttainmentLess than high school. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .High school graduate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Some college . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Bachelor’s degree or more . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Employment Status1

Worked full-time last month. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Worked part-time last month . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Did not work last month . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Occupation2

Managerial-professional . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Technical, sales, and administrative . . . . . . .Service occupations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Poverty LevelBelow poverty level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .100-199 percent of poverty level . . . . . . . . . .200+ percent of poverty level . . . . . . . . . . . . .Income not reported . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

TenureOwns home . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Rents home . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Occupies without cash payment. . . . . . . . . . .

Family Status3

Not living with own children under 18 . . . . . .Currently living with own children under 18 .

Currently living with own children 1-17 . . . .Currently living with own children under 1 .

2,252100.0

86.677.8

8.73.3

10.3

20.664.313.41.7

14.232.428.125.3

84.24.8

10.9

22.219.58.0

50.4

10.117.372.10.6

46.650.6

2.8

75.424.618.5

7.3

931100.0

83.575.713.7

1.5

8.2

8.265.224.91.7

16.436.232.614.8

83.42.7

13.9

16.619.010.154.3

12.218.967.11.8

52.245.0

2.9

82.117.917.3

0.8

969100.0

86.878.810.5

2.3

9.1

4.266.826.82.2

11.038.233.417.4

84.93.8

11.3

17.319.58.3

55.0

9.115.572.72.7

52.944.4

2.6

82.417.616.1

1.8

432100.0

87.284.2

8.92.3

3.6

0.57.1

27.265.2

34.532.421.811.3

22.97.3

69.8

20.816.78.1

54.3

13.123.362.31.3

74.523.4

2.1

94.15.95.9

-

2,284100.0

86.676.5

9.53.3

11.3

32.656.9

9.51.0

13.329.036.321.4

60.712.127.2

28.842.015.014.2

11.918.069.80.3

46.251.1

2.7

63.936.131.0

8.0

1,055100.0

82.573.514.3

2.2

9.3

13.666.417.82.2

14.636.238.610.6

59.011.629.4

23.441.617.717.3

29.329.739.51.5

45.751.8

2.5

36.463.662.5

3.3

1,058100.0

82.474.513.1

2.7

9.1

7.370.819.82.1

11.934.339.914.0

70.49.8

19.8

29.239.914.416.5

20.726.752.10.5

47.850.5

1.7

43.256.856.2

1.7

1,038100.0

82.477.513.4

3.5

6.1

0.55.6

27.466.5

37.641.615.15.7

15.07.2

77.8

12.436.728.922.0

20.835.043.50.8

78.719.3

2.0

95.05.05.0

-

- Represents or rounds to zero.

1Full time includes those who usually work 35 or more hours per week; part time includes those who usually work 1-34 hours per week;those who did not work last month include individuals who are unemployed or are not in the labor force.

2Excludes those who work in the Armed Forces and those who did not work last month.3For the purpose of this table only, own children refers to biological or adopted children. The table excludes step children.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), 1996 Panel, Wave 2 Topical Module.

Recently separated and were below poverty, 29 percent of not work. Since most of these peo-divorced women are more likely recently separated women were ple completed their educations priorto be in poverty than men. below poverty. Among recently to widespread expansion in educa-

The majority of recently separated divorced men and women, fewer tional opportunities, most have a

and divorced men and women are men (9 percent) than women (21 high school degree or less. Recently

age 25 to 44. While most of these percent) were living below the widowed women are less likely than

women live with their own children poverty line. At the other economic recently widowed men to be at or

under age 18 (64 percent of sepa- extreme, 73 percent of recently above 200 percent of the poverty

rated and 57 percent of divorced divorced men had incomes at least level, 44 percent compared with

women), only about 18 percent of twice the poverty level compared 62 percent.

recently separated and divorced with 52 percent of recently divorcedwomen. The data suggest that College graduates are moremen live with their own children

likely to marry and less likelyunder age 18. Separations and marital disruption results in much

to separate.divorces are often followed by poorer economic circumstances for

sharp reductions in income due to women than for men. Table 9 presents marriage, divorce,

the loss of a spouse. While 12 per- separation, and widowhood ratesMost recently widowed men and

cent of recently separated men for men and women by theirwomen are age 65 and over and do

14 U.S. Census Bureau

Table 9.Marriage, Separation, Divorce, and Widowhood Rates by Age, Sex, and EducationalAttainment for Population Age 15 and Over: Fall 1996(Events in the last year per 1,000 people at risk)

Characteristic

Men Women

Lessthan high

schoolHigh

schoolSome

college

Bachelor’sdegree or

higher

Lessthan high

schoolHigh

schoolSome

college

Bachelor’sdegree or

higher

Marriage

Total, 15 and over . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 to 24 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25 to 44 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Separation

Total, 15 and over . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 to 24 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25 to 44 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Divorce

Total, 15 and over . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 to 24 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25 to 44 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Widowhood

Total, 15 and over . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 to 24 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25 to 44 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 and over . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

19.712.254.314.6

9.3

15.071.227.712.3

1.7

11.240.720.810.2

1.4

14.6-

0.37.8

34.6

42.055.158.616.0

2.7

18.849.427.611.8

-

22.555.233.113.7

1.4

7.8-

2.16.8

27.9

41.852.455.918.2

5.1

19.241.827.6

9.93.7

21.931.932.511.91.6

6.04.00.67.6

25.1

57.761.591.522.110.2

8.9-

9.011.21.5

11.2-

15.69.31.5

3.2-

0.81.8

16.0

17.522.845.5

6.14.2

16.060.124.6

7.83.6

13.527.728.6

6.82.0

40.5-

5.824.0

116.9

34.683.351.210.9

0.7

18.553.627.4

8.83.0

21.234.530.2

8.41.5

20.92.71.6

19.781.7

41.365.457.017.9

1.4

22.743.630.212.4

-

30.165.034.613.2

-

8.71.91.78.8

52.3

50.593.982.5

7.8-

8.7-

9.88.43.3

9.9-

15.09.4

-

4.6-

0.94.9

36.4

- Represents zero or rounds to zero.

Note: The numbers of marriages and divorces have been weighted to adjust SIPP data to the total number of marriages and divorcesestimated by NCHS for 1996, as well as to the NCHS age distribution for these events.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), 1996 Panel, Wave 2 Topical Module.

educational attainment and age.15

Men and women with at least abachelor’s degree were more likelyto marry in the last year and lesslikely to separate in the last yearthan those who had a high schooldegree or less. Men and womenwho did not graduate from highschool and those with at least abachelor’s degree had a lowerdivorce rate in 1996 than thosewith a high school degree or withsome college. Women who havesome college were more likely todivorce in the last year than thosewho have a high school degree.

In addition to lower separation anddivorce rates, educational attain-ment seems to have a protectiveeffect in terms of widowhood.Men who have at least a bachelor’sdegree have lower widowhoodrates than men with a high schooldegree or less. For women, therelationship between additionaleducation and widowhood is even

U.S. Census Bureau 15

15 A multivariate analysis which also con-sidered race and ethnic differences in thepopulation was performed, producing resultsconsistent with the bivariate analysis shownin this section.

stronger. Women who have somecollege and those who have atleast a bachelor’s degree havelower widowhood rates thanwomen with a high school degree,while women with a high schooldegree have significantly lowerrates than women who did notgraduate. This relationship reflectsthe fact that more educated peo-ple, on average, have higherincomes, and so have access tobetter health care, as well as beingmore likely to be in occupationswhich have few physical hazards.16

PROJECTIONS OF MARITAL EVENTS

What proportion of adults in theUnited States will marry or divorceduring their lifetimes? Thisquestion, along with others, isaddressed in this section. Theaverage number of years peoplemay be expected to spend in vari-ous marital states throughout their

16 Hummer, Robert A., Richard G. Rogers,and Isaac W. Eberstein. “SociodemographicDifferentials in Adult Mortality: A Review ofAnalytic Approaches,” Population andDevelopment Review. Vol. 24:3 (1998), pp.553-578.

lives, as well as the proportion ofadults who may ever marry,divorce, or remarry during theirlives are presented. These projec-tions are values generated fromlife tables based on the retrospec-tive marital history data collectedin the SIPP.

Table 10 presents the average num-ber of years lived in various maritalstates during particular age intervalsand represents the average experi-ence of the population as a whole.While women 15 to 29 years old areprojected to spend most of theiryears in these ages never married,women in their thirties, forties, andfifties are projected to spend themajority of their time married. Forwomen in their sixties, the largestproportion of time they will spend isstill projected to be spent married(3.6 years), but for ages 70 to 85,more time is projected to be spentwidowed (3.4 years) or lost to mor-tality (6.4 years).

Men are also projected to be nevermarried for most of the yearsbetween age 15 and 29 (4.9 yearsfrom 15 to 19 years old and 7.0

Table 10.Distribution of Time Spent in a Particular Marital Status by Age and Sex(Average years spent in each state for specific age interval)

Sex and marital stateTotal,

15 to 85years

15 to 19years

20 to 29years

30 to 39years

40 to 49years

50 to 59years

60 to 69years

70 to 85years

MEN

Total number of years . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Never married . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Married . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Widowed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Divorced. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Death . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

WOMEN

Total number of years . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Never married . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Married . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Widowed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Divorced. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Death . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

70.017.826.3

1.98.0

15.9

70.016.826.7

6.210.310.0

5.04.9

---

0.1

5.04.80.1

--

0.1

10.07.02.5

-0.20.3

10.06.03.5

-0.30.2

10.02.65.7

-1.20.5

10.02.26.20.11.40.2

10.01.55.60.11.90.9

10.01.26.00.32.10.4

10.00.95.20.22.01.7

10.01.05.20.72.30.9

10.00.64.10.51.63.2

10.00.83.61.72.11.8

15.00.43.21.01.19.3

15.00.82.23.42.26.4

- Represents zero or rounds to zero.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), 1996 Panel, Wave 2 Topical Module.

years from 20 to 29 years old). from first marriage) by 1996 and are more accurate at older ages,Unlike women, men may spend the the total percentage projected to since actual marital experience rep-majority of their time during each ever experience the event based on resents the majority of the projec-of the other age intervals married life table calculations (see sample tion relative to the componentuntil ages 70 to 85, where men calculation box). Figure 4 shows developed from life table calcula-spend 3.2 years married, but lose the probability that adults who are tions. However, selective mortality9.3 years to mortality. The higher never married at the specified age by marital status may yield a largeraverage number of years married will eventually marry. This proba- proportion of people married at thereflects higher male mortality rates bility, based on life table calcula- time of the survey than actuallyamong men age 60 and over who tions, is multiplied by the remaining recorded for this age cohortspend fewer years widowed than percentage of men or women who because of higher mortality rateswomen on average. have not yet experienced the event, among never-married people.

and then added to the percentageBetween 80 and 90 percent of menNearly everyone marries. who have already experienced theand women age 15 in 1996 are pro-

event in order to obtain the percent-Table 11 shows the percent of men jected to marry by the end of theirage projected to experience thisand women who had already expe- lives. Among men age 30 years oldevent during their lifetime.rienced the particular event (for in 1996, 65 percent had alreadyProjections presented in this tableexample, first marriage, divorce

16 U.S. Census Bureau

Table 11.Lifetime Projected Experience of Marital Events(Percent who have ever experienced or may ever experience specified marital event)

Sex andcurrent age

Ever married Ever divorced from first marriage Ever remarried after divorcefrom first marriage

Percentever

married by1996

Probabilityof first

marriagefor never

married of1.0000

Lifetimeprojected

percentever

married

Percent Probability Lifetimeever of future projected

divorced divorce percentfrom first from first divorcedmarriage marriage of from firstby 1996 1.0000 marriage

Percent Probability Lifetimeever of future projected

remarried remarriage percentafter first after first remarried

divorce by divorce of after first1996 1.0000 divorce

MEN

15 years20 years25 years30 years35 years40 years45 years50 years55 years60 years

WOMEN

15 years20 years25 years30 years35 years40 years45 years50 years55 years60 years

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

-3.5

31.865.477.480.987.393.294.596.6

-10.350.071.184.185.289.691.395.394.9

0.85560.85500.80990.70280.53330.40710.32500.24620.19030.1556

0.89360.88900.83780.71650.52460.40800.28800.19400.15680.1440

86868790898991959697

89909292929193939696

--

4.616.726.934.041.139.838.234.3

--

12.217.226.436.541.642.438.030.7

--

0.50990.40230.30380.23270.13720.07920.04010.0242

--

0.45170.35710.24170.18140.10280.05680.03110.0198

(X)(X)5350494949454136

(X)(X)5247444848464032

--

55.535.660.766.471.678.379.086.9

--

44.049.765.167.668.168.964.164.7

--

0.69280.55380.37190.25870.19210.13240.09510.0712

--

0.69190.48810.32080.22370.13990.08050.04860.0247

(X)(X)8671757577818188

(X)(X)8374767573716666

- Represents zero or rounds to zero.

X Population at risk too small to calculate projection.

Note: See sample calculation box for an example of the calculations of projected lifetime percentages. Percent who may ever have thespecified marital event was derived from life table estimates based on the events in the 3 years prior to the survey date for persons age 15and over.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), 1996 Panel, Wave 2 Topical Module.

married, and another 24 percentmay marry by the end of their livesfor a total of about 90 percent evermarrying. Seventy-one percent ofwomen age 30 in 1996 had alreadymarried, and an additional 20 per-cent may marry based on theserates, resulting in a total of about 90percent who may ever marry. Thistotal percentage is not significantlydifferent from either the projectedtotal for women age 30 or from theprojected totals for men and womenage 15. The percent of men andwomen who may ever marry is high-est among older ages; 97 percent ofmen and 95 percent of women age60 in 1996 may ever marry by theend of their lives. These oldercohorts represent the people enter-ing adulthood during the postwarbaby boom period when more peo-ple married and at earlier ages thansucceeding cohorts. It seems rea-sonable to conclude that in the nextfew decades a somewhat lower per-centage of men and women — about90 percent — will marry by the endof their lives, as compared withthose who in 1996 had alreadypassed through the ages at whichmost adults marry, given the lessrapid entry into married life as previ-ously noted in Table 1.

Nearly half of recent firstmarriages may end in divorce.17

Projecting the actions of future mar-riage cohorts is very difficult as theyare subject to changes in normstoward family life and fluctuations in

U.S. Census Bureau 17

17 The National Center for Health Statisticsrecently released a report which found that 43percent of first marriages end in separation ordivorce within 15 years. The study is based onthe National Survey of Family Growth, a nation-ally representative sample of women age 15 to44 in 1995. Bramlett, Matthew and WilliamMosher. “First marriage dissolution, divorce, andremarriage: United States,” Advance Data FromVital and Health Statistics; No.323. HyattsvilleMD: National Center for Health Statistics: 2001.Data in the Census report were collected fromboth men and women, age 15 and over, and adifferent methodology was used than in theNCHS report.

Sample calculation for the projected future experiencesshown in Table 11.

Lifetime projected percent ever married among WOMEN 30 years old:

1. Percent of 30 year old women who had ever married by the inter-view date in 1996.

71.1%

2. Calculation of the percent of 30 year old women never married bythe interview in 1996.

100% - 71.1% = 28.9%

3. Life table probability of first marriage among never-married womenage 30 in 1996. Generated with cross-sectional event rates, assum-ing a stable population. Probabilities are from each age to the endof the life table (i.e. death).

0.7165 out of 1.0000

4. Percent of women who are likely to marry in their life times. Theproportion at risk (never married at age 30) times the probabilitythat they will marry equals the percent of women who may firstmarry from age 30 to death given that they were never married atage 30.

(0.7165 * 28.9%) = 20.7%

5. Total projected percent of women 30 years old at the interview in1996 who have married or who MAY marry by the end their lives.

71.1% + 20.7% = 91.8%

Figure 4.Probability of Future Marriage by Age for Men and Women

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), 1996 Panel, Wave 2 Topical Module.

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

60555045403530252015

Probability

Age in years

Men

Women

the economy which may influencethe entry into or stability of mar-riages. The projections in Table 11,then, reflect only current rates ofmarital transitions which areassumed not to change for the peri-od under examination — this is oneof the basic assumptions of this typeof life table. In other words, the pro-jections in this report only reflectwhat will occur in the future if mar-riage and divorce patterns remainconstant over time. In order toquantify what proportion of firstmarriages will end in divorce, a sep-arate life table is constructed onlyfor those in their first marriage,using only divorce and widowhoodrates from first marriage.

About 50 percent of first marriagesfor men under age 45 may end indivorce, and between 44 and 52percent of women’s first marriagesmay end in divorce for these agegroups. The likelihood of a divorceis lowest for men and women age60, for whom 36 percent of menand 32 percent of women maydivorce from their first marriage bythe end of their lives. A similar sta-tistical exercise was performed in1975 using marital history datafrom the Current Population Survey(CPS). Projections based on thosedata implied that about one-third ofmarried persons who were 25 to 35years old in 1975 would end theirfirst marriage in divorce.18 Thiscohort of people, who in 1996 wereabout 45 to 55 years old, hadalready exceeded these projectionsas about 40 percent of men andwomen in these ages had divorcedfrom their first marriage. Currentprojections now indicate that theproportion could be as high as 50 percent for persons now in theirearly forties.

18 U.S. Census Bureau

18 Paul C. Glick and Arthur J. Norton,“Number, Timing, and Duration of Marriagesand Divorces in the United States: June 1975,”Current Population Reports, P20-247. U.S.Census Bureau: Washington, DC, 1976.

From SIPP 1996 data on first mar-riages, Figure 5 graphs the cumula-tive proportion divorced from firstmarriage, by race and ethnicity forwomen. The graph shows theresult of combining all first mar-riages, regardless of when theyoccurred, and thus represents theaverage experience of all ever-married women as of 1996.

Marriages are most susceptible todivorce in the early years of mar-riage. After 5 years, approximately10 percent of marriages are expect-ed to end in divorce — another 10 percent (or 20 percent cumula-tively) are divorced by about thetenth year after marriage. However,the 30-percent level is not reacheduntil about the 18th year after mar-riage while the 40 percent level isonly approached by the 50th yearafter marriage.

Data for specific ages are not pre-sented in Table 11 by race and eth-nic groups due to small samplesize; however, by combining all first

marriages, regardless of when theyoccurred, single decrement lifetable methodology makes it possi-ble to look at divorce from firstmarriage across several race andethnic groups (see Figure 5). While40 percent of ever-married Whitenon-Hispanic women and Hispanicwomen had divorced from their firstmarriage by 1996, the correspon-ding percentages are 48 percent forBlack women and 24 percent forAsian and Pacific Islander women.No data currently available show ahistorical marriage cohort where thepercent divorced from first marriagewas as high as 50 percent, althoughit has approached this level.19

19 Robert Schoen and Nicola Standish.“The Footprints of Cohabitation: Resultsfrom Marital Status Life Tables for the U.S.,1995,” Pennsylvania State UniversityPopulation Research Institute Working Paper00-12, 2000.

Figure 5.Cumulative Percent Divorced From First Marriage by Race and Ethnicity for Ever-Married Women: Fall 1996

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), 1996 Panel, Wave 2 Topical Module.

0

10

20

30

40

50

5045403530252015105

Cumulative percent divorced

Duration of first marriage, in years

Black

White non-Hispanic

Hispanic (of any race)

Asian and Pacific Islander

All women

Most people remarry after which is not available from any labor force participation, jobs,divorcing from a first marriage. other data source at the national income, and participation in federal

level. SIPP data document the more assistance programs, informationAs previously noted in Table 1,negative economic aspects of mari- on other topics is also collected inincreasing proportions of peopletal disruptions for women than for topical modules on a rotating basis.have been remarrying amongmen as much larger proportions ofcohorts born since the 1920s. Manywomen experiencing these disrup- ACCURACY OF THEpeople divorce, but the majoritytions lived in poverty during the ESTIMATESremarry. One consequence offirst year after separation ordivorcing at relatively earlier ages is All statistics from sample surveys aredivorce.that people potentially have more subject to sampling error and non-

years of life remaining to experience sampling error. All comparisons pre-Finally, this report presents for thea second marriage. Most men and sented in this report have taken sam-first time since the mid-1970s fromwomen may remarry after divorcing pling error into account and meetthe Census Bureau, projections offrom a first marriage (see Table 11). the Census Bureau’s standards fortoday’s young adults who mayBecause such a high percentage of statistical significance. Nonsamplingexperience various marital transi-divorced people are projected to error in surveys may be attributed totions during their lifetime. Theremarry, the majority of people’s a variety of sources, such as how theresults indicate that the percentagelives are still expected to be spent in survey was designed, how respon-of adults under 45 years old whoa married state, especially among dents interpret questions, how ablemay ever marry may be around themen. and willing respondents are to pro-90-percent level, while the percent-

vide correct answers, and how accu-age of first marriages ending inSUMMARY rately answers are coded and classi-divorce may be as high as 50 per-

fied. The Census Bureau employsThis report has detailed marital pat- cent. This projected proportion isquality control procedures through-terns for adults in the United States up from an estimate of one-third ofout the production process — includ-born since the 1920s. The first part marriages made by demographersing the overall design of surveys,of this report showed increasing in 1976. However, most peopletesting the wording of questions,delays in the age at marriage during who divorce are projected to remar-review of the work of interviewersthe last half of the twentieth centu- ry (about 75 percent). Periodic col-and coders, and statistical review ofry, as well as increasing proportions lection of marital histories in SIPPreports.of people ever divorced. However, will allow us to update this report

the SIPP data document that the and track marital patterns in the The SIPP employs ratio estimation,majority of adults have married United States by providing supple- whereby sample estimates areonly once, and more than 70 per- mental data not normally available adjusted to independent estimatescent of them are still married to in ongoing reports published by of the national population by age,their first spouse. either the Census Bureau or other race, sex, and Hispanic origin. This

statistical agencies. weighting partially corrects for biasThe second part highlighted differ-due to undercoverage, but how itences in the marital patterns of vari- SOURCE OF DATA affects different variables in the sur-ous racial and ethnic groups —

The estimates in this report come vey is not precisely known.namely, the lower likelihood of mar-from the Survey of Income and Moreover, biases may also be pres-rying among Blacks than amongProgram Participation (SIPP), and are ent when people who are missed inWhite non-Hispanics and Hispanics.based on data collected from the survey differ from those inter-The median duration of marriagesAugust through November of 1996 viewed in ways other than the cate-ending in divorce is almost 8 years,by the U.S. Census Bureau. The gories used in weighting (age, race,with 6.6 years the median length ofdata highlighted in this report come sex, and Hispanic origin). All ofthe time between marriage and sep-primarily from the core and the these considerations affect compar-aration, before couples divorced. marital history topical module in isons across different surveys or

Selected characteristics of adults the second interview (wave) of the data sources. who experienced four different 1996 SIPP panel. The SIPP is a lon-

Please contact Jeffrey Stratton of thetypes of marital transitions in the gitudinal survey conducted at 4-Demographic Statistical Methodslast year were examined in the third month intervals. Although the mainDivision via Internet e-mail atpart of the report — information focus of the SIPP is information ondsmd_s&[email protected] for

U.S. Census Bureau 19

information on the source of thedata, the accuracy of the estimates,the use of standard errors, and thecomputation of standard errors.

Life Table Projections ofFuture Marital Events

In this report, projections of thehypothetical future marital experi-ence of the population are madeusing life tables (mathematical mod-els). These life tables assume that apopulation will age and continue toexperience a specific set of transi-tion rates between different maritalstatuses (never married, married,divorced, and widowed) in additionto the risk of death. Another neces-sary assumption in this analysis isthat no one will enter the table bymigration from outside the UnitedStates, and that no one will leavethe table except by death.

Readers should use caution withthese results. These results onlyproject what may happen given themodel’s assumptions and transitionrates based on the Survey ofIncome and Program Participationwhich are adjusted to the level andage distribution of marriages anddivorces reported in Vital Statisticsdata by the National Center for

Health Statistics. Marital transitionrates are constructed using theevents and population at risk forthe 3 years prior to the interview.Separate rates for men and womenare calculated and used as inputdata for the life tables. Marital sta-tus specific death rates for 1995were used in the preparation of thelife tables.20 The derived ratesinclude first and second marriagesas well as divorces and widowhoodfrom those marriages.21

MORE INFORMATION

The report as well as a detailedtable are also available on theInternet (www.census.gov); searchfor this report by clicking on the let-ter M in the “Subjects A-Z” sectionof the Web page and selecting“Marriage and Divorce.”

U.S. Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. CENSUS BUREAU

Washington, DC 20233

OFFICIAL BUSINESS

Penalty for Private Use $300

FIRST-CLASS MAILPOSTAGE & FEES PAIDU.S. Census Bureau

Permit No. G-58

20 We gratefully acknowledge NicolaStandish and Robert Schoen at PennsylvaniaState University for these mortality rates.

21 Not allowing subsequent marriages anddivorces increases the time the populationspends in the divorced state and reduces thetransition rates somewhat for both remarriageand divorce. Direct estimation of discrepanciesbetween marital event rates derived from SIPPand vital statistics age specific rates are notpossible since rates after 1989 are no longeravailable from NCHS.

CONTACTS

For additional marriage or divorceinformation, you may contact theauthors of this report in the Fertilityand Family Statistics Branch, on 301-457-2465. You may also contact theauthors of this report by e-mail.

Rose Kreider [email protected]

Jason Fields [email protected]

USER COMMENTS

The Census Bureau welcomes thecomments and advice of data andreport users. If you have any sug-gestions or comments, pleasewrite to:

Chief, Population DivisionU.S. Census BureauWashington, DC 20233

or send e-mail to: [email protected]

SUGGESTED CITATION

Kreider, Rose M. and Jason M.Fields, 2001. Number, Timing, andDuration of Marriages andDivorces: Fall 1996. CurrentPopulation Reports, P70-80. U.S.Census Bureau, Washington, DC