Nucular Energy

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Why Nuclear Electricity for India?

V S Arunachalam

Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy,

Bangalore, INDIA

&Department of Engineering & Public Policy

Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh PA, USA



Growth of India¶s Power Sector

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I n s t a l l e d G e n e r a t i o n C a p a c i t y ( G W )

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P e r C a p i t a C o n s u m p t i o n ( k W h )

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N u m b e r o f V i l l a g e s E l e c t r i f i e d

(Projected)

Serious Growth after 60¶s Generation 6th largest in world

Per capita consumption low

Close to 95% villages electrified

Ministry of Power, Government of India



The Status

Coal

67166

Gas

11840

Diesel

1196

Hydro

30135

Nuclear

2720Wind

2488 Installed Capacity > 120 GW

Gross Generation: 620 billion kWh

Per Capita Consumption ~ 600 kWh

Coal dominant energy source (58%)

Ministry of Power, Government of India



India¶s Future Growth

India needs sustained economicgrowth > 8% to radicallyimprove its HDI

Growth in last few years ~ 5%-7%

Growth hampered byinfrastructure: electric power ± Peak shortfall

± Average shortfall

± High T&D Losses:

± Unscheduled black-outs,especially in rural areas

± Supply to agriculture sector notmetered and almost free

Source: Groningen Growth and Development CenterTotal Economy Database, http://www.ggdc.net/.



Growth Areas

Present growth is skills or resource driven(exports: software, gems and jewels, garment manufacture)

Future Growth will have to be on value addition & engineering

R ural sector to play a major role(agricultural and dairy produce; minimizing wastage and improvingefficiency)

Infrastructure building(roads, buildings, railroads etc.,)

Manufacturing

The elasticity has to be greater than 1 for powering future growth



Electric Power R equirements

G e n e r a t i o n ( b i l l i o n k W h )

Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Key GDPGrowth Rate0.050.060.07

0.080.090.1

Required for 8% economic growth by 2015:

Installed Capacity 250 GW

Generation 1500 billion kWh Per Capita Consumption 1000 kWh

C a p a c i t y N e e d e d ( G W )

Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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Key GDPGrowth Rate0.050.060.07

0.080.090.1



Fuel Supply: Options for Future

Coal ± Conventional

± Gasification

Natural Gas

Hydro

Nuclear ± PHWR + FB + AHWR

± PLWR

Wind ± On-shore

± Off-shore

Biomass Solar

± Photo voltaic

± Concentrating Solar Power

Fuel Present In 2015

Coal 67,166 MW ?

Gas 11,840 MW ?

Hydro 30,135 MW ?

Nuclear 2,720 MW ?

Wind 2,488 MW ?

Biomass 1,000 MW ?

Solar - ?

TOTAL 115,035 MW 250,000 MW



K ing Coal !

R eserves

± Proven 91 billion Tons

± Indicated 116 billion Tons

± Inferred 37 billion Tons

± TOTAL 245 billion Tons

Coal reserves: > 250 years at present

levels of consumption

Concentrated in Eastern India

MadhyaPradesh

7%

Others

13%

Jharkhand

29%

Chattisgarh

16%

est engal

11%

Orissa

24%



Indian Coal Quality

High ash: 25%-45%

Low sulfur < 0.5%

Low energy content

CO2 emissions > 1 kg per kWh

Issues with coal:

± Ash disposal: annual ashgeneration > 90 million tons

± CO2 emissions

Heating

Value

(BTU/lb)

Ash

Content

(%)

Sulfur

(%)

Illinois # 6 10,900 11.00 3.25

Wyodak 11,960 5.97 0.40

WPC Utah 11,240 5.32 0.61

Indian Coal 6,500 25-45 <0.5



Coal: Future Scenarios

Projections of coal demand (2015):

± High growth : 580 MT

± BAU scenario : 380 MT

± Domestic production will not beenough. Imports needed

Issues:

± Ash generation > 200 million Tons

± CO2 emissions > 850 Million Tons ± Particulate and NOx emissions

(presently not regulated)

± Coal transportation bottleneck: R ail

transportation stagnation

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C o a l R e q u i r e m e n t i n P o w e r S e c t o r ( M i l l i o n T o n s )

Coal Transport by Railways

Business as Usual

Accelerated growth scenario



India¶s CO2 Emissions

India¶s fossil based CO2 emissions in2003:

± Coal 666 MMT

± Petroleum 305 MMT

± Natural Gas 53 MMT

India¶s CO2 emissions rapidly growing

± Trebled during 1981-2001

India and China presently not subject tomandatory cuts in CO2

± However future may not be so

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

S h a r

f l

a l C O E m i s s i

s ( % )

US

Western Europe

China

India

EIA, US Department of Energy

India China Total

1980 1.64% 7.83% 9.47%

2003 5.60% 19.34% 24.93%

Share of global emissions



Options with Coal

Coal¶s dominance will undoubtedly continue.

± Availability

± Cheap

The question is: How much do we want to add with coal given the constraints

of quality, transportation, carbon emissions and environmental issues.

Installed

Capacity of Coal

(GW)

Coal R equired

(Million MT)

CO2 Emissions

(Million MT)

Upper Case Coal stillcontributes 60%

of capacity

~ 150 GW 580 MMT 850 MMT

Lower Case Aggressive

deployment of

nuclear and

natural gas

technologies

~ 120 GW 470 MMT 690 MMT

Coal scenarios for high economic growth ~ 8%



Hydro-Electricity

Inferred potential > 120 GW

Installed capacity 30 GW

Most big projects are in North-

Eastern states of Arunachal Pradesh,

Sikkim, Uttaranchal and &K

Problems of rehabilitation and

resettlement with large projects

Environmental issues

Water sharing agreements with

neighborsN ational Hydro Power Corporation, Government of India



Hydro-Electric Potential

State Capacity

(MW)

Dulhasti &K 390

Dhauliganga Stage - I * Uttaranchal 140

Teesta Stage V Sikkim 510

Loktak Downstream Manipur 90

Parbati-II Himachal Pradesh 800

Sewa-II &K 120

Subansiri Lower Arunachal Pradesh 2000

Teesta Lower Dam-III West Bengal 132

Omkareshwar Madhya Pradesh 520

TOTAL 4702

Details of projects under construction

Projects awaiting

clearance and

government approval

2,570 MW

Projects at DPR and

infrastructure

development stage

11,620 MW

Projects under survey

and investigation

11,000 MW

Ongoing and Planned Projects

Possible to add 10,000 MW by 2015



Natural Gas

Fastest growing primary fuel, worldwide

Indian statistics (2004-05):Consumption: > 31 BCM/year

Primary uses:Power 41%

Fertilizer 32%

Sponge Iron 4%

Other 23%

Growing needs for transportation (and some cooking)

Latent demand estimated as high as 80 BCM (depends on price, of course)



Natural Gas

Pipelines

Indore

- onwardsto India

TAPS

TAPS

(across water)

CENTGAS

- to Pakistan

IndoreBaroda

333333333

KarachiGwadar

222222222

444444444

Gas supplyConsumption

center

New Delhi

Multan

1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar 1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar 1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar 1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar 1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar 1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar 1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar 1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar 1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar

111111111

Pakistan

Afghanistan

Iran

Turkmenistan

Qatar India

Oman

Gas Authority of India Limited

India¶s Gas Pipelines

Possible Gas Imports (Tongia & Arunachalam, 1999)



Imports of Gas

LNG growing (5+ million tons/annum), but pricesremain high

± 1 ton LNG can power ~ 1 GW of power ± 1 BCM gas ~ .8 GW of power

thus, 20 BCM ~ 16,000 MW of gas power

Initial imports won¶t necessarily add to elec. capacity

± Will substitute naphtha in power plants and find other usesas well More than half the fertilizer feedstock is gas

Industry has already claimed the bulk of current LNG supplies



Biomass

India predominantly agricultural

country.

Annual production of agro-forest and

processing residues: 350 million tons

Power generation potential > 22,000

MW

Advantages:

± Decentralized generation: close to

rural load centers.

± Technology reasonably well

developed ± Environmentally friendly: No net CO2

emissions

Feedstock Examples Potential Installed

Agro-forest

residues

Wood chips,

mulberry,coconut

shells

17,000 MW 50 MW

Processing

residues

R ice husk,

sugarcane

bagasse

5,000 MW 1000 MW



Biomass Conversion Technologies

Gasifier-reciprocating engine

± Power plants of 5 kW ± 100 kW possible

± Diesel engine needs ~ 15%-20% for

ignition

Cost of electricity is high

± G

as engine can operate on 100% syngas ± Overall efficiency ~ 20%

± Largest gasifier 100 kW

Fluidized bed combustion boilers

± R ice husk and bagasse

± 25%-30% ± Power plants of 5 MW ± 35 MW operating in

various sugar mills

± Producing electricity is sweeter than sugar !!

50 kW biomass gasifier power plant in Karnataka



Biomass for Decentralized R ural

Power Electric power requirement of typical Indian village < 100 kW

± ~ 75% is irrigation pumps

± Presently these get virtually free, un-metered grid supply of poor quality, few

hours a day

Locally available biomass can sustain a plant of 25 kW-100 kW

± Gasifier-reciprocating engine technology is fairly robust

Cost of generation reasonable

± $ 0.06-0.07 per kWh

BUT, still widespread dissemination not visible:

± Economics unviable due to low PLF

± People not willing to pay when state gives free !

± Loss of organic fertilizer on land

Good potential from bagasse and husk:

± Can expect to add 3000 MW by 2015.



Wind Speed Maps of Selected

Countries

Denmark

In general, wind speeds lower (~200W/m2)

in India as compared to Europe (350 W/m2)

and US US



Off-shore Wind in Europe

Europe and US have taken up several off-shore projects.

Wind speeds higher

Distance from shore in some cases ~ 30 ± 40 km !

Country Capacity Depth (m) Distancefrom Shore(km)

R emarks

Denmark 160 MW 6 ± 12 m 14 ± 20 km Completed

UK 60 MW 4 ± 8 m 2.3 km Completed

Denmark 23 MW 20 m 3.5 km Completed

Denmark 5 MW 3 ± 5 m 6 km Completed

Sweden 10 MW 6 ± 10 m 5 km Completed

Germany 1040 MW 30 m 43 ± 50 km Planned

Netherlands 120 MW 20 ± 24 m 23 km Planned

Germany 240 MW 20 m 34 km Planned

Ireland 520 MW 2 ± 5 m 10 km Partly

complete



India: Off Shore Wind Scenario

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Distance ( m)

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Distance ( m)

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Bathymetr y f Indian Seas

Depth (metr es)



Nuclear Power: The Present Status

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I n s t a l l e d C a p a c i t y ( M W

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Planned

Presently installed



Indian Nuclear Program: The

Present Status 12 PHWR & 2 BWR now under operation

4 PHWR and 2 LWR under commission

2950 MW generation & 3000 MW under commission

Successful experiments with Fast Breeder TestR eactor (FBTR )

Prototype Fast Breeder R eactor (PFBR ) for 500MWe under construction

Advanced Heavy Water R eactor (AHWR ) using(Pu-Th) O2 MOX for 300MWe: advanced stage of design approval; construction soon to begin.



Indian Nuclear Program: The

Constraints

Uranium ore reserves for only 10,000MWe for 40

years

Non-signatory to NPT: no access to globaltechnologies, materials or services

Slow growth of nuclear electric power: ~1000

MWe annually

Major dependence on Pu and U233 MOX for fuel

Complex fuel technologies. Total capacity limited



Why Cooperate?

India needs electric power now, more than

ever, for human development and growth

It must generate power from all energy

sources

Excessive and continued dependence on

coal contributes to environmental

degradation & global warming Limitations of renewable energy sources



Why Cooperate?

Politics of Non-Proliferation: Power &

R esponsibility

R &D: cooperation and Collaboration

Bilateral trade & economic issues

Sharing global energy resources

Environmental concerns

Shared vision: secular, democratic & caring

society



Why Cooperate?

C limate change is a greater threat tohumanity than terrorism, and no lessurgent.

--- David King, Science Advisor to Prime

Minister of UK



An Action Plan

Until Nuclear Fusion and Hydrogentechnologies mature

Minimizing wastage; energy conservation;

Development of Energy Plan Installation of nuclear power ( 34GW in 10

years)

Investments inR

&D to make renewabletechnologies efficient, sustainable&affordable



An Action Plan

Strict enforcement of export controls of

technologies, equipment and services

Nuclear power reactors under international

safeguards

Collaboration in developing technologies

for utilizing MOX fuels for electric power

generation Participation in Gen. 4 R &D initiatives



Indian Energy Scenarios: 2015

Coal

60.44%Gas

14.49%

Diesel

0.48%

Nuclear 5.06%

Hydro

15.96%

Solar thermal

0.40%

Biomass

1.19%Wind

1.99%

Gas

14.49%

Diesel

0.48%

Nuclear

14.60%

Hydro

15.96%

Solar thermal

0.40%

Biomass

1.19%Wind

1.99%

Coal

50.90%

Same Fuel Mix as now Aggressive Nuclear Capacity Addition

R eduction in annual coal consumption ~ 100 Million Tons

R eduction in annual CO2 Emissions > 170 Million Tons ~ Total present CO2 emissions of Netherlands !



Primary energy consumption per

capita



What If «.India & China Were ³Developed´by 2013?

Expected Carbon Emission:

14,400 Million Tons (2.5 times

present global emissions !!)

CO2 concentration > 400 ppm

Temperature rise > 0.5 C0

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OEC India China Others

2002201

Global Carbon Emissions (Million Tons per Year)

US > 14,000

India 600

China 1 00

Present Electricity Per Capita (kWh)

Target: 14,000 kWh by 201

(Calculations Based on Data in Climate Change 2001, IPCC)



What If

India & China Guzzle Oil?

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Global Oil Consumption (Million Barrels per Day)

US > 750

India 4

China 8

Present Number of Cars per 1000

World Oil Consumption: 387

Million Barrels a Day At Present 77 Million Barrels a Day

Oil reserves deplete in 8 years !! At Present 42 years

Target: 250 Cars per 1000



I saw God In the smile of the poor Mahatma Gandhi



The cost of Power

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