Nuclear Weapon Stockpile Management
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Transcript of Nuclear Weapon Stockpile Management
N A T I O N A L N U C L E A R S E C U R I T Y A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
O F F I C E O F D E F E N S E P R O G R A M S
Nuclear Weapon Stockpile Management
Information Presentation to:
American Association for the Advancement of Science
Dr. Donald Cook
Deputy Administrator for Defense Programs
National Nuclear Security Administration
10 November 2011
2
Overview
• Stockpile Management Requirements
• National Policy
• Production & Planning Directive
• Nuclear Security Enterprise
• Directed Work products
• Limited Life Component Exchange
• Tritium supply and Component Production
• Life Extension Program (LEP) refurbishments
• Dismantlement work
• Challenges and Opportunities
• Predictive Capability Framework
• Component Maturation Framework
• LEP phase approach
3
“The United States will take concrete steps towards a world
without nuclear weapons... Make no mistake: As long as
these weapons exist, the United States will maintain a safe,
secure and effective arsenal to deter any adversary, and
guarantee that defense to our allies...”
President Obama, April 5, 2009
Prague, Czech Republic
“Conduct research and development on a broad range of safety, security,
reliability, and control methods and devices for nuclear warheads and weapon
systems, including use control, and delay and denial capabilities. As a long-
term goal, pursue technologies that render the unauthorized use of U.S. nuclear
weapons impossible without their remanufacture.”
National Security Presidential Directive/NSPD-28
National Strategic Policy for Nuclear Weapons has been Clearly Formulated
4
National Strategic Policy for Nuclear Weapons has been Clearly Formulated
The NPR stated the following as priorities, among others:
“…providing annual stockpile assessments through weapons
surveillance.”
“…funding fully the ongoing LEP for the W76 submarine-based
warhead and the LEP study and follow-on activities for the B61
bomb…”
“…initiating a study of LEP options for the W78 ICBM warhead,
including the possibility of using the resulting warhead also on SLBMs
to reduce the number of warhead types…”
“…the science, technology and engineering base, vital for stockpile
stewardship as well as providing insights for non-proliferation, must be
strengthened…”
Department of Defense, “Nuclear Posture Review”, April 2010 T
5
National Laboratories and Test Site
Sandia Nat’l Laboratories NM and CA Sites
Systems engineering, neutron
generators, and non-nuclear
component design
Nevada National Security
Site Nevada
Experimental site and
“subcritical” nuclear material tests
Los Alamos
Nat’l Laboratory Los Alamos, New Mexico
Nuclear design lab and Pu Sustainment
(B61, W76, W78, W88)
Lawrence Livermore
Nat’l Laboratory Livermore, California
Nuclear design lab
(W80, W87, B83)
Kansas City Plant Kansas City, Missouri
Nonnuclear manufacturing/
Procurement
Production Complex
Pantex Plant Amarillo, Texas
Weapons assembly/disassembly
Y-12 National Security
Complex Oak Ridge, Tennessee
Uranium operations
Savannah River Site Aiken, South Carolina
Tritium operations
Nuclear Security Enterprise Sites
6
Shared Nuclear Deterrence Responsibilities with DoD
Establish military
requirements
Design, develop, test, and
produce delivery system
Operate complete nuclear
weapons system
Secure and maintain
nuclear weapons
Train personnel and plan
for employment
Maintain safety, security
and reliability of the
stockpile
Research and develop
nuclear weapon science,
technology and
engineering
Support stockpile levels
Validate warhead safety
and assess reliability
Produce and manage
nuclear materials
7
Today’s Nuclear Stockpile and Delivery Systems
W80-1
W76-0/1, W88
D5
W78, W87
MM III
B-52
B61-11, W80-1, B83-1
Both must be transformed to meet tomorrow’s priorities
B61-3/4/10
F-15E
F-16
B61-7/11, B83-1
B-2A
8
Bombs and Cruise Missiles
B61-3/-4/-10 B61-7/-11 B83 W80-1
Description Non-strategic
bomb
Strategic bomb Strategic bomb Air launched
cruise missile
Primary Use Air to surface Air to surface Air to surface Air to surface
Delivery System F-15E, F-16,
PA200, F-35
B-2 B-2, B-52 B-52
Service Air Force Air Force Air Force Air Force
Date Entered
Service
10/79 (-3), 8/79 (-4)
8/90 (-10)
9/85 (-7),
11/97(-11)
9/83 2/82
Laboratory LANL & Sandia LANL & Sandia LLNL & Sandia LLNL & Sandia
9
Ballistic Missiles
W76 W78 W87 W88
Description SLBM ICBM ICBM SLBM
Primary Use Underwater to
surface
Surface to surface Surface to surface Underwater to
surface
Delivery System Trident II (D-5) Minuteman III Minuteman III Trident II (D-5)
Service Navy Air Force Air Force Navy
Date Entered
Service
11/78 9/79 7/86 6/89
Laboratory LANL & Sandia LANL & Sandia LLNL & Sandia LANL & Sandia
10
The Stockpile Stewardship and Management Plan Charts the Development of Advanced Science and
Technology Required for Weapons Sustainment
Advanced computational models of all aspects of
weapons operation
In-depth evaluation of components and materials
Analysis of new production methods
High resolution CT radiographs of pits
Advanced spectroscopic analysis of gases
Replacement of limited life components (LLCE)
Modern technology employed as indicated by analysis
Advanced science and technology employed in complete Life Extension Program (LEP) for each system.
Predictive Capability and Component Maturation (PCF &CMF) planning methodologies define science and technology requirements
SSMP – charts new infrastructure and capability requirements
Assessments and Analysis
Surveillance
Sustainment (LLCEs, LEPs)
Proactive Planning
(SSMP/PCF/CMF)
Key elements of Stockpile Stewardship and Management Plan (SSMP):
11
Limited Life Components
• A Limited Life Component (LLC) is a component, used in a nuclear
weapon, that decays with age and must be replaced on a periodic
basis
Tritium Reservoirs (LANL/SNL/KCP/SRS)
Neutron Generators (SNL)
Gas Generators
Radio-isotopic Thermoelectric
12
LLC Production Rates
Production Run FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
W76-0,1
W78
W87
B83
W80-1
W88
B61
Large Ferro Electric NG – In production Small Ferro Electric NG – In development
Electronic NG – In development - First production unit (FPU)
Quantities FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
TPBARS
Neutron
Generators 696 724 540 540 540 640 640 640 640 640
Gas Transfer
Systems 1024 427 594 658 788 675 907 1004 1027 865
544 1696 1504 1104 544 544
TPBARS produced in 18 month cycles at Watts Bar, TVA
13
Authorized
( )
As of January 24, 2011
Notes
* Some hedge warheads are built during the FY 2021-2024 timeframe
**The Air Force is leading an Analysis of Alternatives (AoA) for the future of long range stand-off vehicles (Ref. Section 1251 Report to Congress, November 2010)
Dates shown burgundy represent deliveries of given components and/or refurbishments to the Department of Defense (DoD)
NG - Neutron Generator
GTS - Gas Transfer System
SRM - Spin Rocket Motors
There are numerous alternative pathways being explored that could impact future SLEP Plans, for instance:
-- NPR recommendation for the evaluation of the W78 ICBM warhead LEP and the possibility for use on multiple platforms
-- Technical drivers as discovered within the framework of the surveillance program
-- Other technical and programmatic issues that may arise
Nuclear Explosive Package (NEP) /
Arming, Fuzing, and Firing (AF&F) Assembly
6.2-6.5
(Pending W78-LEP Warhead Analyses)
Stockpile Life Extension Program (SLEP) PlansFiscal Year 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 2817 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 35
Ph
ase
6.X
Pro
cess
Maj
or
Act
ivit
ies
Maj
or
Life
Ext
en
sio
n P
rogr
ams
at P
ante
x &
Y-1
2
Submarine Launched
Ballistic Missile Warhead (W76)
Tactical/ Strategic Bomb LEP
(B61-3/4/7/10)6.2-6.2A 6.3-6.5
NEP, AF&F, & Surety
(Pending Approval)
Intercontinental
Ballistic Missile Warhead (W78)6.1
29 30 31 32
Air Delivered
Bomb
(B61-11/B83-1)
33 34
Intercontinental
Ballistic Missile Warhead (W87)6.1 6.2-6.2A 6.3-6.5
6.2-6.2ANEP, AF&F, & Surety
(Pending Approval) (continue production of additional hedge warheads)*
NEP, AF&F, & Surety
(Pending Approval)
Submarine Launched
Ballistic Missile Warhead (W88)
NEP & Surety
(Pending Approval)
Cruise Missile Warhead
(W80-1)6.1 6.2-6.2A
(GTS) Drivers are inside boxes
Fie
ld
Re
furb
ish
me
nts
(Be
yon
d T
riti
um
Re
qu
ire
me
nts
) B61-3/4/10
W87
Full-Scale Production (LEPs)
Full-Scale Production
(Minor)
Lim
ite
d L
ife
Co
mp
on
en
t Ex
chan
ge
Min
or
Re
furb
ish
me
nts
at
Pan
tex
W80-1 NG
W87 NG
W88
B83-1 NG & GTS
(SRM)
B61-11
Field Refurbishments at DoD
Facilities
Studies &
Engineering
NG & AF&F
6.3-6.5
6.3-6.5
(NG)
LEGEND
**Evaluation underway on impacts of replacement cruise missile
Stockpile Life Extension Programs
Modernizing the Stockpile
14
• Continue ongoing assessment and certification
activities
• Conduct REST and Stockpile surveillance
activities
• Accomplish safety studies necessary to maintain
production and surveillance activities
• Monitor number of SFIs and aging effects
• First system to implement Phase 6.X process
• Implement improved project management and
controls
• Improve weapon safety and reliability
• Eliminate quality and reliability watch list items
• Improve physics margin
• Eliminate safety soft spots
• Reduce future maintenance and future weapon
exposure
• Continue W76 LEP production and deliver
completed W76-1s to the Department of the
Navy
FY 2012 – FY 2018 Objectives
D-5 Missile SLBM Flight
Test
W76 Life Extension Program
15
B61 Full Scope LEP
• Qualify and certify the refurbished B61
for an additional lifetime with the FPU in
FY 2017
• Ensure modern and legacy aircraft
compatibility
• Integrate new Air Force delivery
capability
• Consolidate (4) B61 modifications into a
single bomb variant
• Improve weapon safety, use control and
reliability
• Implement improved project
management & controls
• Reduce special nuclear material
• Reduce maintenance and weapon
exposure
• Improve physics margin
• Eliminate safety soft spots
FY 2012 – FY 2017 Objectives
B61 Life Extension Program
16
LEP Planning Framework
Programmatic
and Technical
Source
Requirements
Life Extension
Options
Engineering, Readiness,
Stockpile Services
(Development/Production)
Science, ASC, ICF, Advanced
Certification, Engineering
Production Readiness/ RTBF
CMF
PCF
Stockpile
Modernization
Requirements and
Drivers
Prioritizing and
Planning Investment
Decision
Technology Development,
Certification, and Component
Maturation
Technology Down-
Select and
Stockpile Insertion
Stockpile Services and
Systems (Advanced
Architecture)
17
The Predictive Capability Framework (PCF) Provides a Roadmap for Science Advances
Predictive Capability Framework
2006
2009
2012
2015
Safety and Security
Nuclear Explosive
Package Assessment
Engineering
Assessment
Hostile Environments,
Output and Effects
Experimental and
Computation Capabilities
2020
B61 Safety
Design Options
Multi-point
Safety
MPS – Realistic
Environment
Margin and Uncertainties
for Advanced Systems
Energy Balance
Initial Cond.(early phase)
Initial Cond.(late phase)
Burn-init
Secondary
Perform. 1
Burn
Boost
Secondary
Perform. 2
Surveillance
Neutron GeneratorValidated Model
Normal
Environment
3D Abnormal
Assessment
Flight
Performance
Full Re-Entry
Performance
Non-Nuclear Design andQualification with QMU
Adv. Circuit
Prediction andIntegrated Response
“End-End” Outputs
and Total Response
DARHT
MESA
PetaflopComputing
CEFNIF
LANSCE
100-200Petaflop
300-500Petaflop
Exascale
Computing
18
The Component Maturation Framework (CMF) Provides a Roadmap for Stockpile Technology
Development and Insertion W
orkin
g Do
cum
ent
Component Maturation Framework
FY 2010FY 2013
FY 2016FY 2019
Arming, Fuzing, and
Firing
Limited-Life
Components
Nuclear Explosives
Package
Safety, Security and
Use Control
Diagnostics
Facilities
Systems StructuralHandling Gear
Shipping Containers
Supports/Mounts
Environmental Testing
Environmental Testing
Environmental Testing
Micro
Micro
Micro
JTA
JTA
JTA
Testers
NDE Equipment
Trainers
Power Sources
Use ControlPower Sources
Use Control
Case
Secondary/InterstagePrimary
CasePrimary
GTS
NG
Fuzing
Fuzing
FiringArming
Arming
Power Sources
Power Sources
Hardware
Arming
Power Sources
Fuzing
Firing
B61 LEP W88 AltW78 LEP
NG
Handling and Rework
Handling Gear
Trainers
Testers
W88 NG
September 6, 2011
Hardware
B61-11 NGNG
W87 NG
GTSW87 GTS
W80-1 NGW88 GTS
W80-1 GTS
Fuzing
W80-1B83-1W87 NG
B61-11
Secondary/Interstage
Dates shown are the required dates for achieving TRL7/MRL6 status.*The W88 NEP LEP FPU Date is FY 2025.
UPF Technologies
Firing
Legend
B61 LEP Sub-System
W88 Alt Sub-System
W78 LEP Sub-System
W88 NEP Sub-System*
LLC Exchange Sub-System
Hardware
Primary
Secondary/Interstage
Handling and Rework
19
Flow of Science and Technology Deliverables to the LEP process
Phase 6.2/2A
Feasibility and Cost
Study
Phase 6.4
Production
Engineering
Phase 6.3
Development
Engineering
Phase
6.5
FPU
Phase 6.6 Full
Rate Production
Phase
6.1Study
SSMP-PCF, CMF
• Refurbishment options analyzed (PCF)
• Determination of component lifetimes
(CMF)
CMF
• Component technology and manufacturing development
• Integration between DAs, PAs, and FPMs
PCF
• Certification and qualification activities
• Models and simulations of all aspects of weapon performance
• Supplies computational tools and data to the CMF
Ph
as
e 6
.x
Acronyms
DA=Design Agency
FPM=Federal Program Manager
PA=Production Agency
20
Paradigm Shift - New Approach
Leveraging development for one
system into the following system
Deployed
Hedge
Deployed
Hedge
Deployed
Hedge
Both
Development 15 year touches
Use of pre-builds and concurrent builds to
better utilize production capacities Refurbishing the deployed for the
stockpile first (Build A)
Deployed
Hedge
Deployed
Hedge
Deployed
Hedge
Both
Production
Goal: Shorten Phase 6.2 - 6.5 by continuously studying systems and components
21
Notional Architecture, Technology and Component Maturation Process
ICBM
(W87)
6.3-6.5 Build A
6.3-6.5 Build B
6.3-6.5 Build A
Continuous Phase 6.1 Activity + Annual Assessment
Continuous Phase 6.1 Activity + Annual Assessment
Continuous Phase 6.1 Activity + Annual Assessment
4037 38 3934 35 3631 32 33Fiscal Year 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 3027 28 29
NEP & AF&FSLBM
(W76)
24 25 2618 19 20 21 22 23
ICBM
(W78)
6.2-6.2A 6.3-6.5 Build A
SLBM
(W88)
Cruise Missile
(W80/LRSO)
Continuous Phase 6.1 Activity + Annual AssessmentT / S Bomb
(B61-3/4/7/10)
Continuous Phase 6.1 Activity + Annual Assessment
6.3-6.56.2A
6.2A
Build B
Build A6.3-6.5
6.3-6.5
6.2A
AF&F6.3-6.5
6.2A
Architecture, Technology, and Component Maturation Program(Provide Future Architectures, Technologies and Components to Systems at TRL5/MRL6)
Ne
eds
22
Dismantlement Program
• Planned NNSA quantities completed
• Pantex Dismantlements
• FY08: 110% (648)*
• FY09: 117% (356)*
• FY10: 126%
• FY11: 120%
• CSA Dismantlements
• FY08: 141%
• FY09: 110%
• FY10: 110%
• FY11: 100%
Complete by 2022 the dismantlement of all weapons systems retired prior to 2009. - DOE Strategic Plan, May 2011
NNSA evaluating the feasibility of accelerating dismantlements
*Fact Sheet: Increasing Transparency in the US Nuclear Weapons Stockpile
23
Major Physical Infrastructure Projects
UPF
-
PF-4
CMRR-NF
Chemistry Metallurgy Research Replacement-Nuclear
Facility (CMRR-NF): Construction completed by 2020
Plutonium Facility-4 (PF-4): Recapitalization will enable pit
manufacturing capacity up to 80 pits per year by 2022
High Explosive (HE) Pressing Facility: New facility ensures
sustained responsiveness for all HE mission-related work with a
production capacity from 300 up to 500 hemispheres per year and
construction completed by 2017
KCRIMS
HE Pressing
Facility
Uranium Processing Facility (UPF): Up to 80
secondaries per year by 2022, construction completed by 2020
Kansas City Responsive Infrastructure, Manufacturing and
Sourcing (KCRIMS): New facility supports non-nuclear
production, active weapons programs, dismantlement programs
and all life extension programs, construction completed by 2012
24
The new Kansas City Complex ( KCRIMS) is 1/3 complete
Ground breaking for the High Explosives Pressing Facility (HEPF) at Pantex
was on August 30
For the Uranium Processing Facility (UPF) at Y-12:
All NEPA activity is complete
All public hearings are complete
Record of decision is complete
At Pantex:
SS-21 (Seamless Safety) is fully in place
All weapon types can be maintained
At Sandia:
MESA is fully operational
Neutron generator facility is in place
Z Refurbishment is complete, high-quality data are being obtained
Significant Progress has been Made in Modernizing the NSE infrastructure
Acronyms
MESA=Microsystems and Engineering Sciences Applications
NEPA=National Environmental Policy Act
NSE=Nuclear Security Enterprise
SEIS=Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement
SS21=Seamless Safety in the 21st Century
25
At Savannah River:
Tritium extraction is underway
At Los Alamos:
DARHT is fully complete and generating high-quality data
CMRR final SEIS has been issued, Record of Decision (ROD) issued
PF-4: All major fixes for seismological issues are being implemented;
completion in late Calendar 11 and early 12
At Livermore:
NIF is fully in place and generating high-quality data for ICF and weapon
science
At Nevada:
Criticality Experiments Facility (CEF) is complete and generating data
U1a subcritical experiments are generating high-quality data
JASPER gas gun experiments are underway again
Significant Progress has been Made in Modernizing the NSE infrastructure
26
The Stockpile Stewardship and Management Plan
provides a roadmap for the advanced science and
technology development required to maintain the safety,
security and reliability of the stockpile
In pursuit of the stockpile mission, NNSA has driven
world leading developments in materials science, high
energy density physics, computational science, special
nuclear material processing, and advanced
manufacturing
Conclusions