Nuclear Renaissance-

Real, or Imaginary ?

Framework:

• I. A Bit of History

• II. Change Happens

• III. On the Threshold– Maybe

• IV. Where Things Stand Now

History

• Pearl Street, Lower Manhattan, 9/3/1882

Shippingport, 1957

Dresden Unit 1

Generation II Delays1) Intervenors:

LaSalle County 1 & 2: Approx. 3 years2) Design Changes:

LaSalle County 1 & 2: Approx. 18 mos.(Pressure suppression chamber reanchoring)

LaSalle County original dates: 1974, 1975

LaSalle County actual dates: January & October 1984

3) Quality Problems:Marble Hill, IN, and Cincinnati G. & E. plant cancelled

Load Patterns

One last thing...

US coal-fired plants are OLD !

For 14 coal-fired units in this territory (about 5000 mw), a rough weighted-average age is 47 years !

Mechanical condition alone may make these candidates for retirement– what would a carbon tax do ?

• CHANGES IN THE WIND...– 1992: Disaggregation of the industry– Environmental refocussing:

• 1969: SO2

• 1980’s: Ozone, oxidants

• 1990: Mercury

• 1995– Greenhouse gases, CO2

ON THE THRESHOLD

• Nuclear as baseload

DAILY INTEGRATED ELECTRIC LOAD

ON THE THRESHOLD

•Nuclear as baseload

•Unable to follow load

•Economics:

•High first cost

•Low operating cost

NEW PLANT DESIGNS

1) Emphasis on passive safety(Engineered safeguards are not first-

line defense)2) Precertified designs (Except for site-related differences)

WESTINGHOUSE AP-1000 REACTOR

BUT...

BUT...

Financing is MUCH more difficult!

--Disaggregation of industry makes

utility financing like manufacturing

POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS1) Consortia

2) Government loan guarantees

WHERE WE STAND NOW:

-More than 30 announced projects(some construction started)

-17 requests for COL (26 units)(but nothing issues until 2011)

-Mostly consortia-Mostly existing sites

(reduced likelihood of interventions)-Gov’t loan guarantees piddly

SPENT FUEL DISPOSAL ISSUES:

New Reactors Filed for C.O.L.