Nuclear Power AFF

8/9/2019 Nuclear Power AFF

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Nuclear Power AFF- NCPA

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Nuclear Power AFF ................................................................................................................. 1

Notes ................................................................................................................................2

Contention One is Warming ..............................................................................................3Contention Two is Competitiveness ................................................................................ 11

Plan Text ......................................................................................................................... 19

Contention Two is olvenc! ............................................................................................2"

Warming #$Ts .................................................................................................................... 2%

2AC & Case Outweig's ....................................................................................................2(

2AC & Ant'ropogenic ......................................................................................................29

2AC & Positive Fee)*ac+s ............................................................................................... 31

2AC & Too ,ate ................................................................................................................33

2AC & A2 Climate +eptics ..............................................................................................3-2AC & Nu+e Power olves ............................................................................................. ..3%

Competitiveness #$Ts ........................................................................................................ 3(

2AC & Oil estro! /ea)iness ...........................................................................................30

2AC & P e er a!s !)rogen ..........................................................................................34

2AC & Natural 5as 5lut AC .............................................................................................. -"

Oil #ntanglement A))6on ............................................................................................. ..-1

olvenc! #$Ts .................................................................................................................... -3

2AC & Tec' Now .............................................................................................................. --

7o)elling #xts ................................................................................................................ -%Cost 'are #xts .............................................................................................................. -4

A2 No 7ar+et ..................................................................................................................%"

2ac & a et! ....................................................................................................................%2

2AC & A2 7elt)owns .......................................................................................................%-

Topicalit! ............................................................................................................................%%

2AC T6 8Non 7ilitar! ......................................................................................................%(

2AC T6 evelopment .......................................................................................................%0

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Notes

This affirmative can access both hegemony and global warming providing flexibilityand allows the affirmative team to capture almost every impact presented. Another

strength is a N!" #N#$$ tric%& the evidence that says the Floating $'(s arealready being employed by (ussia& ma%es inevitable most negative disads pertainingto proliferation)terrorism) or environmental threats.

There is also a strong $ %ey warrant through the hegemony advantage and theevidence that says $ lead is critical to get the world onboard.

*ey Terms -

According to the !nternational Atomic #nergy Agency& +small+ reactors are definedto have power outputs up to , ' e and +medium+ reactors have outputsbetween , and / ' e

!nternational Atomic #nergy Agency 0!A#A1 definitions& a large conventionalnuclear reactor typically exceeds an output of / ' . !n contrast& smallnuclear reactors are defined as those producing less than , ' 0!A#A&2 /1.

Purchase-Power Agreement 3 government purchases the energy output of the $'(which was created and funded by private mar%ets. Private companies would footthe bill and the government would purchase the energy it created. !n essence& it isan agreement to purchase power.

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Contention 4ne is arming

The best science proves it5s anthropogenic'uller& 2 62 [Richard, professor of physics at the University of California, Berkeley, and a

former MacArthur oundation fello!, "#he Conversion of a Climate$Chan%e &keptic',http())!!!*nytimes*com)2+12)+ )3+)opinion)the$conversion$of$a$climate$chan%e$skeptic*html- pa%e!anted.all/CA00 me a converted skeptic* #hree years a%o identified pro lems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, thre! dou t on the verye istence of %lo al !armin%* 0ast year, follo!in% an intensive research effort involvin% a do4en scientists, concluded thatglobal warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of !armin% !ere correct* 5m no! %oin% a step further( 7umansare almost entirely the cause * My total turnaround, in such a short time, is the result of careful and o 6ective analysis y theB er%eley E arth S urface T emperature pro8ect , !hich founded !ith my dau%hter 7li4a eth* 8ur results show

that the average temperature of the earth5s land has risen y t!o and a half de%rees ahrenheit over the past 29+ years,includin% an increase of one and a half de%rees over the most recent 9+ years* Moreover, it appears likely that essentially all of this increaseresults from the human emission of greenhouse gases * #hese findin%s are stron%er than those of the nter%overnmental :anelon Climate Chan%e [ :CC/, the United ;ations %roup that defines the scientific and diplomatic consensus on %lo al !armin%* n its 2++ report,the *:*C*C* concluded only that most of the !armin% of the prior 9+ years could e attri uted to humans* t !as possi le, accordin% to the

*:*C*C* consensus statement, that the !armin% efore 1!e duplicated our results usin% ruraldata alone?, from data selection >prior %roups selected fe!er than 2+ percent of the availa le temperature stations@ !e used virtually 1++

percent?, from poor station 9uality >!e separately analy4ed %ood stations and poor ones? and from human interventionand data ad8ustment >our !ork is completely automated and hands$off?* n our papers !e demonstrate that none of these potentiallytrou lesome effects unduly iased our conclusions* #he historic temperature pattern !e o served has a rupt dips that match the emissions ofkno!n e plosive volcanic eruptions@ the particulates from such events reflect sunli%ht, make for eautiful sunsets and cool the earth5s surface fora fe! years* #here are small, rapid variations attri uta le to 7l ;i o and other ocean currents such as the ulf &tream@ ecause of suchoscillations, the "flattenin%' of the recent temperature rise that some people claim is not, in our vie!, statistically si%nificant* hat has caused the%radual ut systematic rise of t!o and a half de%rees- e tried fitting the shape to simple math functions >e ponentials,

polynomials?, to solar activity and even to risin% functions li%e !orld population . By far the best match was tothe record of atmospheric car on dio ide 0C42 ?, measured from atmospheric samples and air trapped in polar ice*

Fossil fuels are %ey:ertessy and Clar% 3$13-2 62 [Ro , Actin% Director of Australian Bureau of Meteorolo%y, andMe%an, Chief 7 ecutive 8fficer at the Common!ealth &cientific and ndustrial Research8r%anisation, "&tate of the Climate 2+12', http())theconversation*edu*au)state$of$the$climate$2+12$9E31/Car on dio ide >C82? emissions account for a out 60% of the e ect from anthropogenic greenhousegases on the earth5s ener%y alance over the past 29+ years* #hese %lo al C82 emissions are mostly from fossil fuels >more than E9F?, landuse chan%e, mainly associated !ith tropical deforestation >less than 1+F?, and cement production and other industrial processes >a out GF?*Australia contri utes a out 1*3F of the %lo al C82 emissions* 7ner%y %eneration continues to clim and is dominated y fossil fuels Hsu%%estin% emissions !ill %ro! for some time yet* C82 levels are risin% in the atmosphere and ocean* A out 9+F of the amount of C82 emittedfrom fossil fuels, industry, and chan%es in land$use, stays in the atmosphere* #he remainder is taken up y the ocean and land ve%etation, inrou%hly eIual parts* #he e tra car on dio ide a sor ed y the oceans is estimated to have caused a out a 3+F increase in the level of oceanacidity since pre$industrial times* #he sources of the C82 increase in the atmosphere can be identified from studies of theisotopic composition of atmospheric C42 and from oxygen >82? concentration trends in the atmosphere . #he observed trends in the isotopic >13C, 1GC? composition of C82 in the atmosphere and the decrease in the concentration of

atmospheric 82 confirm that the dominant cause of the o served C82 increase is the com ustion of fossil fuels .

G

http://theconversation.edu.au/state-of-the-climate-2012-5831http://theconversation.edu.au/state-of-the-climate-2012-5831http://theconversation.edu.au/state-of-the-climate-2012-5831http://theconversation.edu.au/state-of-the-climate-2012-5831


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; degree warming is inevitable with current carbon usage trends 3 emissions mustbe reducedPotsdam !nstitute& 2 62 >:otsdam nstitute for Climate mpact Research and ClimateAnalytics, "#urn Do!n the Jeat( hy a GKC armer orld Must e Avoided', A report for the

orld Bank, ;ovem er,

http())climatechan%e*!orld ank*or%)sites)default)files)#urnLDo!nLtheLheatL hyLaLGLde%reeLcentri%radeL!armerL!orldLmustL eLavoided*pdf?#he emission pledges made at the climate conventions in Copenha%en and Cancun, if fully met& place the world on atra8ectory for a %lo al mean !armin% of !ell over ,


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impacts * As 0onnie #hompson noted, the more %lo al !armin% !e mana%e to miti%ate, the less adaption and sufferin% !e !ill e forced tocope !ith in the future* Realistically, ased on the current political climate >!hich !e !ill e plore in another post ne t !eek?, limitin% %lo al

!armin% to 2KC is pro a ly the est !e can do* Jo!ever, there is a i% di erence between )# C and 3KC, et!een 3KC andGKC, and anything reater than "# C can pro a ly accurately be described as catastrophic , since varioustippin% points are e pected to e tri%%ered at this level* Ri%ht no!, we are on track for the catastrophicconseIuences >!idespread coral mortality, mass e tinctions, hundreds of millions of people adversely impacted y drou%hts, floods, heat !aves,etc*?* But we*re not stuck on that track 6ust yet &and we need to move ourselves as far off of it aspossible by reducing our %reenhouse %as emissions as soon and as much as possi le* #here are of course many people !ho

elieve that the planet !ill not !arm as much, or that the impacts of the associated climate chan%e !ill e as ad as the ody of scientificevidence su%%ests* #hat is certainly a possi lity, and !e very much hope that their optimistic vie! is correct* Jo!ever, !hat !e have presented here is the best summary of scienti+c evidence availa le, and it paints a very blea% picture ifwe fail to rapidly reduce our %reenhouse %as emissions . f !e continue for!ard on our current path, catastrophe is not 6ust a

possi le outcome, it is the most pro a le outcome* And an intelli%ent risk mana%ement approach !ould involve takin% steps to prevent acatastrophic scenario if it !ere a mere possi ility, let alone the most pro a le outcome* #his is especially true since the most importantcomponent of the solution $ car on pricin% $ can e implemented at a relatively lo! cost, and a far lo!er cost than tryin% to adapt to the climatechan%e conseIuences !e have discussed here > i%ure G?*

Three !mpacts---

Agriculture 3 ; degrees trumps C42 benefitsPotsdam !nstitute& 2 62 >:otsdam nstitute for Climate mpact Research and ClimateAnalytics, "#urn Do!n the Jeat( hy a GKC armer orld Must e Avoided', A report for the

orld Bank, ;ovem er,http())climatechan%e*!orld ank*or%)sites)default)files)#urnLDo!nLtheLheatL hyLaLGLde%reeLcentri%radeL!armerL!orldLmustL eLavoided*pdf?#he overall conclusions of :CC ARG concernin% food production and a%riculture included the follo!in%( P Crop productivity is pro6ected toincrease sli%htly at mid$ to hi%h latitudes for local mean temperature increases of up to 1 to 3KC dependin% on the crop, and then decrease eyondthat in some re%ions >medium confidence? Q 9*G, &:M * P At lo!er latitudes, especially in seasonally dry and tropical re%ions, crop

productivity is pro6ected to decrease for even small local temperature increases >1 to 2KC? !hich !ould increase the risk of hun%er >mediumconfidence? Q 9*G, &:M * P lo ally, the potential for food production is pro8ected to increase with increases in localavera%e temperature over a ran%e of , to # C, but above this it is pro.ected to decrease >medium confidence? Q 9*G, 9*9, &:M * #hese findin%s clearly indicate a %ro!in% risk for lo!$latitude re%ions at Iuite lo! levels oftemperature increase and a %ro!in% risk for systemic %lo al pro lems a ove a !armin% of a fe! de%rees Celsius* hile a comprehensive revie!of literature is forthcomin% in the :CC AR9, the snapshot overvie! of recent scientific literature provided here illustrates that the concernsidentified in the ARG are confirmed y recent literature and in important cases e tended* n particular, impacts of e treme heat !aves deservemention here for o served a%ricultural impacts >see also Chapter 2?* #his chapter !ill focus on the latest findin%s re%ardin% possi le limits andrisks to lar%e$scale a%riculture production ecause of climate chan%e, summari4in% recent studies relevant to this risk assessment, includin% athi%h levels of %lo al !armin% approachin% GKC* n particular, it !ill deli erately hi%hli%ht important findin%s that point to the risks of assumin% afor!ard pro6ection of historical trends* :ro6ections for food and a%riculture over the 21st century indicate su stantial challen%es irrespective ofclimate chan%e* As early as 2+9+, the !orld5s population is e pected to reach a out < illion people >0ut4 and &amir 2+1+? and demand for foodis e pected to increase accordin%ly* Based on the o served relationship et!een per capita D: and per capita demand for crop calories >humanconsumption, feed crops, fish production and losses durin% food production?, #ilman et al* >2+11? pro6ect a %lo al increase in the demand forcrops y a out 1++ percent from 2++9 to 2+9+* 8ther estimates for the same period pro6ect a + percent increase of demand >Ale andratos 2++


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lo!$latitude re%ions, !ith reductions most pronounced in Africa, 0atin America, and ndia >Shan% and Cai 2+11?* or e ample, flooding ofa%ricultural land is also expected to severely impact crop yields in the future( 1+* percent of &outh AsiaTs a%ricultural land is pro6ected to

e e posed to inundation, accompanied y a 1+ percent intensification of storm sur%es, !ith 1 m sea$level rise >0an%e et al* 2+1+?* iven thecompetition for land that may e used for other human activities >for e ample, ur ani4ation and iofuel production?, !hich can e e pected toincrease as climate chan%e places pressure on scarce resources, it is likely that the main increase in production !ill have to e mana%ed y anintensification of a%riculture on the same or possi ly even reduced amount of land > odfray, Beddin%ton et al* 2+1+@ &mith et al* 2+1+?*=eclines in nutrient availability >for e ample, phosphorus?, as well as the spread in pests and weeds& could

further limit the increase of a ricultural productivity* eo%raphical shifts in production patterns resultin% from the effectsof %lo al !armin% could further escalate distributional issues in the future* hile this !ill not e taken into consideration here, itillustrates the plethora of factors to take into account !hen thinkin% of challen%es to promotin% food security in a !armin% !orld* ;e! results

pu lished since 2++ point to a more rapidly escalatin% risk of crop yield reductions associated !ith !armin% than previously predicted>&chlenker and 0o ell 2+1+@ &chlenker and Ro erts 2++


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!armin% !ell elo! GKC* n a scenario of 2*9KC !armin%, severe ecosystem chan%e, ased on a solute and relative chan%es in car on and !aterflu es and stores, cannot e ruled out on any continent >Jeyder, &chaphoff, erten, N 0ucht, 2+11?* f !armin% is limited to less than 2KC, !ithconstant or sli%htly declinin% precipitation, small iome shifts are pro6ected, and then only in temperate and tropical re%ions* Considera le chan%e

is pro6ected for cold and tropical climates already at 3KC of !armin%* /t reater than "# C of !armin%, biomes in temperate4ones will also be substantially affected. #hese chan%es !ould impact not only the human and animal communities that directly relyon the ecosystems, ut !ould also e act a cost >economic and other!ise? on society as a !hole, ran%in% from e tensive loss of iodiversity anddiminished land cover, throu%h to loss of ecosystems services such as fisheries and forestry >de root et al*, 2+12@ arley et al*, 2+12?*

7cosystems have een found to e particularly sensitive to %eo%raphical patterns of climate chan%e > on4ale4, ;eilson, 0enihan, and Drapek,2+1+?* Moreover, ecosystems are affected not only y local chan%es in the mean temperature and precipitation, alon% !ith chan%es in thevaria ility of these Iuantities and chan%es y the occurrence of e treme events* #hese climatic variables are thus decisive factors indeterminin% plant structure and ecosystem composition >Reu et al*, 2+11?* ncreasin% vulnerability to heat and drought stress will li%ely lead to increased mortality and species e!tinction * or e ample, temperature e tremes have already een heldresponsi le for mortality in Australian flyin%$fo species > el er%en, lose, Markus, and 7 y 2++E?, and interactions et!een phenolo%icalchan%es driven y %radual climate chan%es and e treme events can lead to reduced fecundity >Camp ell et al* 2++pests and !eeds? >Jellmann, Byers, Bier!a%en, NDukes, 2++E@ Rahel N 8lden, 2++E? !ith often detrimental implications for ecosystem services and iodiversity* Juman land$use chan%es aree pected to further e acer ate climate chan%e driven ecosystem chan%es, particularly in the tropics, !here risin% temperatures and reduced

precipitation are e pected to have ma6or impacts >Camp ell et al*, 2++ ischlin et al*, 2++ ?* Climate chan%e also has the potential to cataly4e rapid shifts in ecosystems such as suddenforest loss or re%ional loss of a%ricultural productivity resultin% from deserti+cation >Barnosky et al*, 2+12?* #he

predicted increase in e treme climate events !ould also drive dramatic ecosystem chan%es >#hi ault and Bro!n 2++E@ ern er%, &male, and#homsen 2+12?* 8ne such e treme event that is e pected to have immediate impacts on ecosystems is the increased rate of !ildfire occurrence*Climate chan%e induced shifts in the fire re%ime are therefore in turn po!erful drivers of iome shifts, potentially resultin% in considera lechan%es in car on flu es over lar%e areas >Jeyder et al*, 2+11@ 0avorel et al*, 2++=? t is anticipated that %lo al !armin% !ill lead to %lo al iomeshifts >Barnosky et al* 2+12?* Based on 2+th century o servations and 21st century pro6ections, poleward latitudinal biome shifts of upto G++ km are possible in a "# C world > on4ale4 et al*, 2+1+?*!n the case of mountaintop ecosystems & for e ample, such a shift is not necessarily possible& putting them at particular ris% of extinction >0a &orte and Vet4,2+1+?* &pecies that d!ell at the upper ed%e of continents or on islands !ould face a similar impediment to adaptation, since mi%ration intoad6acent ecosystems is not possi le >Camp ell, et al* 2++for e ample, :hillips et al*, 2++E@ hite and Beissin%er 2++E?* A study y >Mid%ley and #huiller, 2+11? found that, of 9,1< African plant speciesstudied, 29HG2 percent could lose all suita le ran%e y 2+E9* t should e emphasi4ed that competition for space with human

a riculture over the comin% century is li%ely to prevent vegetation e pansion in most cases >Sela4o!ski et al*, 2+11? &peciescomposition chan%es can lead to structural chan%es of the entire ecosystem, such as the increase in lianas in tropical and temperate forests>:hillips et al*, 2++E?, and the encroachment of !oody plants in temperate %rasslands >Bloor et al*, 2++E, Rata6c4ak et al*, 2+12?, puttin% %rass$eatin% her ivores at risk of e tinction ecause of a lack of food availa le this is 6ust one e ample of the sensitive intricacies of ecosystemresponses to e ternal pertur ations* #here is also an increased risk of e tinction for her ivores in re%ions of drou%ht$induced tree die ack, o!in%to their ina ility to di%est the ne!ly resident CG %rasses >Mor%an et al*, 2++E?* #he follo!in% provides some e amples of ecosystems that have

een identified as particularly vulnera le to climate chan%e* #he discussion is restricted to ecosystems themselves, rather than the important andoften e tensive impacts on ecosystems services* Boreal$temperate ecosystems are particularly vulnera le to climate chan%e, althou%h there arelar%e differences in pro6ections, dependin% on the future climate model and emission path!ay studied* ;evertheless there is a clear risk of lar%e$scale forest die ack in the oreal$temperate system ecause of heat and drou%ht >Jeyder et al*, 2+11?* Jeat and drou%ht related die$ ack hasalready een o served in su stantial areas of ;orth American oreal forests >Allen et al*, 2+1+?, characteristic of vulnera ility to heat and drou%htstress leadin% to increased mortality at the trailin% ed%e of oreal forests* #he vulnera ility of transition 4ones et!een oreal and temperateforests, as !ell as et!een oreal forests and polar)tundra iomes, is corro orated y studies of chan%es in plant functional richness !ith climatechan%e >Reu et al*, 2+11?, as !ell as analyses usin% multiple dynamic %lo al ve%etation models > on4ale4 et al*, 2+1+?* &u tle chan%es !ithinforest types also pose a %reat risk to iodiversity as different plant types %ain dominance >&chol4e et al*, 2++=?* Jumid tropical forests also sho!increasin% risk of ma6or climate induced losses* At GKC !armin% a ove pre$industrial levels, the land e tent of humid tropical forest,

characteri4ed y tree species diversity and iomass density, is e pected to contract to appro imately 29 percent of its ori%inal si4e [see i%ure 3 in>Sela4o!ski et al*, 2+11?/, !hile at 2KC !armin%, more than 9 percent of the ori%inal land can likely e preserved* or these ecosystems, !ateravaila ility is the dominant determinant of climate suita ility >Sela4o!ski et al*, 2+11?* n %eneral, Asia is su stantially less at risk of forest lossthan the tropical Americas* Jo!ever, even at 2KC, the forest in the ndochina peninsula !ill e at risk of die$ ack* At GKC, the area of concern%ro!s to include central &umatra, &ula!esi, ndia and the :hilippines, !here up to 3+ percent of the total humid tropical forest niche could ethreatened y forest retreat >Sela4o!ski et al*, 2+11?* #here has een su stantial scientific de ate over the risk of a rapid and a rupt chan%e to amuch drier savanna or %rassland ecosystem under %lo al !armin%* #his risk has een identified as a possi le planetary tippin% point at around a!armin% of 3*9HG*9KC, !hich, if crossed, !ould result in a ma6or loss of iodiversity, ecosystem services and the loss of a ma6or terrestrial car onsink, increasin% atmospheric C82 concentrations >0enton et al*, 2++E?>Co , et al*, 2++G? > rie%ler, Jall, Jeld, Da!son, and &chellnhu er, 2++


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as pollinators* hile climate model pro6ections for the Ama4on, and in particular precipitation, remain Iuite uncertain recent analyses usin% :CCARG %eneration climate indicates a reduced risk of a ma6or asin !ide loss of precipitation compared to some earlier !ork* f dryin% occurs thenthe likelihood of an a rupt shift to a drier, less iodiverse ecosystem !ould increase* Current pro6ections indicate that fire occurrence in theAma4on could dou le y 2+9+, ased on the A2 &R7& scenario that involves !armin% of appro imately 1*9KC a ove pre$industrial levels>&ilvestrini et al*, 2+11?, and can therefore e e pected to e even hi%her in a GKC !orld* nteractions of climate chan%e, land use and a%riculturale pansion increase the incidence of fire >Ara%Xo et al*, 2++E?, !hich plays a ma6or role in the >re?structurin% of ve%etation > on4ale4 et al*, 2+1+@&chol4e et al*, 2++=?* A decrease in precipitation over the Ama4on forests may therefore result in forest retreat or transition into a lo! iomassforest >Malhi et al*, 2++


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1ith limitations on how fast species can disperse , or move, this indicates that manyspecies may find themselves !ithout a suita le climate space and thus face a hi%h risk of e!tinction * lo ally, as

in other studies, there is a stron% association apparent in these pro6ections et!een re%ions !here the climate disappears and iodiversity

hotspots* 2imitin warmin to lower levels in this study showed substantiallyreduced e ects & with the ma nitude of novel and disappearin% climates scalin linearly !ith

%lo al mean !armin%* More recent !ork y Beaumont and collea%ues usin% a different approach confirms the scale of this risk >Beaumont etal*, 2+11, i%ure 3=?* Analysis of the e posure of 1E9 eco$re%ions of e ceptional iodiversity >a su set of the so$called lo al 2++? to e trememonthly temperature and precipitation conditions in the 21st century compared to 1


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e!tend into the deep ocean * #he calculations sho!n refer only to the response of the ocean surface layers, and onceocean acidification has spread more thoroughly , slo!in% and reversing this will be much more di cult $ This would further add si ni+cant stress to marine ecosystems already under pressure

from human influences, such as overfishin% and pollution*

#xtinction*ristof @ >; CJ80A& D* R , American 6ournalist, author, op$ed columnist, and a!inner of t!o :ulit4er :ri4es, "&candal Belo! the &urface', 8ct 31, 2++=,http())select*nytimes*com)2++=)1+)31)opinion)31kristof*html-Lr.1, CMR?

f you think of the earth5s surface as a %reat eaker, then it5s filled mostly !ith ocean !ater* t is sli%htly alkaline, and that5s !hat creates ahospita le home for fish, coral reefs and plankton and indirectly, hi%her up the food chain, for us* But scientists have discovered that the

car on dio ide 0C421 we5re spewing into the air doesn5t 6ust heat up the atmosphere and lead to risin% seas* Much of that car on isa sor ed y the oceans, and there it produces car onic acid the same stuff found in soda pop* #hat ma%es oceans a it moreacidic , impairin% the a ility of certain shellfish to produce shells, !hich, like coral reefs, are made of calcium car onate* A recent article in&cientific American e plained the indi%nity of ein% a dissolvin% mollusk in an acidic ocean( "Drop a piece of chalk >calcium car onate? into a%lass of vine%ar >a mild acid? if you need a demonstration of the %eneral !orry( the chalk !ill e%in dissolvin% immediately*' #he more acidic!aters may spell the end, at least in hi%her latitudes, of some of the tiniest variations of shellfish certain plankton and tiny snails called

pteropods* This would disrupt the food chain & possi ly killin% off many !hales and fish, and rippling up all theway to humans * e stand, so to speak, on the shoulders of plankton* "#here have een a couple of very i% events in %eolo%ical history!here the car on cycle chan%ed dramatically,' said &cott Doney, senior scientist at the oods Jole 8ceano%raphic nstitution in Massachusetts*8ne !as an a rupt !armin% that took place 99 million years a%o in con6unction !ith acidification of the oceans and mass extinctions * Most

scientists don5t elieve !e5re headed to!ard a man$made variant on that episode not yet , at any rate* But many !orry that we5rehurtling into un%nown dangers. " hether in 2+ years or 1++ years, think marine ecosystems are going to bedramatically different y the end of this century, and that5ll lead to extinction events ,' Mr* Doney added*"#his is the only ha ita le planet !e have,' he said* "#he dama%e !e do is %oin% to e felt y all the %enerations to come*' &o that should e oneof the %reat political issues for this century the vandalism !e5re committin% to our planet ecause of our refusal to cur %reenhouse %ases* Yetthe su 6ect is arely de ated in this campai%n* Chan%es in ocean chemistry are only one amon% many dama%in% conseIuences of car onemissions* 7vidence is also %ro!in% a out the more familiar dan%ers( meltin% %laciers, chan%in% rainfall patterns, risin% seas and more po!erfulhurricanes* 0ast year, the orld Jealth 8r%ani4ation released a study indicatin% that climate chan%e results in an e tra 19+,+++ deaths and fivemillion sicknesses each year, y causin% the spread of malaria, diarrhea, malnutrition and other ailments* A report prepared for the British%overnment and pu lished yesterday, the &tern Revie! on the 7conomics of Climate Chan%e, !arned that inaction "could create risks of ma6ordisruption to economic and social activity, on a scale similar to those associated !ith the %reat !ars and the economic depression of the first halfof the 2+th century*' f emissions are not cur ed, climate chan%e !ill cut 9 percent to 2+ percent of %lo al *D*:* each year, declared themammoth report* " n contrast,' it said, "the costs of action reducin% %reenhouse %as emissions to avoid the !orst impacts of climate chan%e can e limited to around 1 percent of %lo al *D*:* each year*' &ome analysts put the costs of action hi%her, ut most a%ree that it makes sense toinvest far more in alternative ener%y sources, oth to !ean ourselves of oil and to reduce the strain on our planet* e kno! !hat is needed( acar on ta or cap$and$trade system, a post$ yoto accord on emissions cut acks, and ma6or research on alternative ener%y sources* But as #he#imes5s Andre! Revkin noted yesterday, spendin% on ener%y research and development has fallen y more than half, after inflation, since 1<


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Contention Two is Competitiveness

Nuclear power development is hampered by ineffective incentives and low naturalgas prices 3 failure to stimulate development collapses $ nuclear leadership

=omenici and 'iller& 2 62 >:ete, former senator and senior fello! at the Bipartisan :olicy Center@ arren , :hD in7n%ineerin% &ciences from ;orth!estern and recently served as assistant secretary for nuclear ener%y at the U*&* Department of 7ner%y@"Maintainin% U*&* 0eadership in lo al ;uclear 7ner%y Markets', Report of the Bipartisan :olicy Center5s ;uclear nitiative, Vuly,http()) ipartisanpolicy*or%)sites)default)files)0eadershipF2+inF2+;uclearF2+7ner%yF2+Markets*pdf?

$et against this considera le legacy of institutional and technological dominance , ho!ever, are the many realchallenges the .$. industry confronts today , on multiple fronts poor economics, increased safety and securityreIuirements, and uncertainty a out the resolution of the !aste mana%ement issue* The crisis at the Fu%ushima Daiichi plant focused the attention of re%ulators and the pu lic on the need for continued attention to safety andsecurity at existing reactors , particularly as some of the older plants approach the end of their e tended =+$year license periods*!n 2 2 , the earliest licensed plant will reach the @ -year operation limit & and& after that&approximately one-third of the fleet will 9uic%ly follow * hile some plants may en%a%e in another round ofrelicensin% for up to E+ years, a si%nificant fraction likely !ill e retired and replaced y ne!er$%eneration resources >potentially includin% some

nuclear replacements?* Prospects for new reactor construction in the nited $t ates have constrictedsignificantly in recent years* n the years follo!in% passa%e of 7:AC#+9, 1E utilities applied for com ined construction and operatin%licenses >C80s? to uild a total of 2E reactors* 2 n addition, D87 received 1< applications for loan %uarantees to support financin% for 21

proposed reactors* A combination of factorsBincluding downward revisions to electricity demandpro8ections& difficulty executing the #PACT loan guarantee program as intended, anddrastically reduced natural gas prices Bhas put all but two pro8ects on hold . hile these pro6ects,comprisin% four reactors, have received ;RC licenses and are currently under construction in eor%ia and &outh Carolina, these plantsstill face financial& regulatory& and construction challenge s * 3 And, thou%h natural %as prices have historically

een Iuite volatile, the ability to tap large shale gas reserves will li%ely %eep natural gas pricessufficiently low to ma%e financing additional new reactor construction very difficult for atleast the next decade& if not longer * Another critical factor for the nuclear ener%y industry one that affects oth e istin%reactors and the prospects for uildin% ne! reactors is the need to e ecute an effective strate%y for storin% and disposin% spent nuclear fuel*hile the current practice of storin% this material on$site at operatin% and at shut$do!n reactors is safe, it is not an accepta le lon%$term strate%y*#he federal %overnment is le%ally o li%ated to take title to the spent fuel and its failure to do so has made American ta payers lia le for illions of

dollars in dama%es* ith the world5s largest commercial nuclear fleet& the nited $tates was oncethe world5s leader in nuclear technology development and operations. !n recent years , othercountries , nota ly rance and &outh orea, have risen in international prominenc e @ these countries !ill continue todevelop technolo%ies for domestic markets as !ell as to e port* !t will be increasingly difficult for the nited $tatesto maintain its technological leadership without some near-term domestic demand for newconstruction * Diminished U*&* leadership !ill make U*&* firms less competitive in nuclear e port markets !hile also reducin% U*&*influence over nuclear developments a road* As more countries see% to develop nuclear capacity& the nited$tates must wor% with the international community to minimiDe the ris% of nuclearweapons proliferation.

=4# development of floating nuclear power critical to military readiness 3 preventsenergy shoc%s& cost overruns& and supply chain restrictionsPfeffer and 'acon ?6 >Ro ert A* :feffer is a physical scientist at the Army ;uclear andChemical A%ency in &prin%field, ir%inia, !orkin% on nuclear !eapons effects* Je is a %raduateof #rinity University and has a masterOs de%ree in physics from #he Vohns Jopkins University*:revious overnment e perience includes Chief of the 7lectroma%netic 0a oratory at JarryDiamond 0a oratories >JD0? in Adelphi, Maryland, and Chief of the JD0 ood rid%e

12


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Research acility in ir%inia@ illiam A* Macon, Vr*, is a pro6ect mana%er at the ;uclearRe%ulatory Commission* Je !as formerly the actin% Army Reactor :ro%ram Mana%er at theArmy ;uclear and Chemical A%ency* Je is a %raduate of the U*&* Military Academy and has amasterOs de%ree in nuclear en%ineerin% from Rensselaer :olytechnic nstitute* Jis militaryassi%nments included Assistant Bri%ade &G in the 1st Armored Division, ";uclear :o!er( An

8ption for the ArmyOs uture', http())!!!*almc*army*mil)alo%)issues)&ep8ct+1)M&=EG*htm ,&eptem er)8cto er 2++1?

#he Army #ransformation initiative of Chief of &taff eneral 7ric * &hinseki represents a si%nificant chan%e in ho! the Army !ill e structured and conduct operations* Post-Coldar threats have forced Army leaders to thin% +outside the box+ and develop the next-generation

4b8ective Force &a li hter and more mobile + htin army that relies heavilyon technolo y and .oint-force support * More chan%es can e anticipated* As we consider what the Armymight loo% li%e beyond the 4b8ective Force of 2 6 & nuclear power could play a ma.orrole in another si ni+cant chan e 7 the shift of military ener y use awayfrom carbon-based resources *Nuclear reactor technology could be used to generate the

ultimate fuel s for both vehicles and people E environmentally neutral hydrogen for e9uipment fueland potable water for human consumption. 7volvin% 7ner%y &ources 8ver the centuries, ener%y sources have een movin% a!ay from car on andto!ard pure hydro%en* ood >!hich has a out 1+ car on atoms for every h ydro%en atom? remained the primary source of ener%y until the 1E++s, !hen it !as replaced !ith coal >!hich h as 1 or2 car on atoms for every hydro%en atom?* n less than 1++ years, oil >!ith t!o hydro%en atoms for every car on atom? e%an to replace coal* ithin this first decade of the ne! millennium,natural %as >!ith four hydro%en atoms for every car on atom? could very !ell challen%e oilOs dominance* n each case, the natural pro%ression has een from solid, car on$dominated, dirty fuelsto more efficient, cleaner$ urnin% hydro%en fuels* ork already is under!ay to make natural %as fuel cells the ne t reakthrou%h in porta le po!er* Jo!ever, fuel cells are not the final step inthe evolution of ener%y sources, ecause even natural %as has a finite supply* uel cells are merely another step to!ard the ultimate ener%y source, sea!ater, and the ultimate fuel derived from it,

pure hydro%en >J2?* 7nvironmental Realities There are three geopolitical energy facts that increasingly are affecting thelong-term plans of most industrialiDed nationsB orldwide coal reserves are decreasing. At thepresent rate of consumption& geological evidence indicates that worldwide low-sulfur coal reservescould be depleted in 2 to ; years . This rate of depletion could accelerate significantly as China&!ndia& and other Third orld countries industrialiDe and use more coal. 'ost ma8or oil reserveshave been discovered and are controlled by 8ust a few 4P#C 4rganiDation of Petroleum-#xportingCountriesG nations. $ome of these reserves are now at ris%H >ahrain& for example& estimates that itsoil reserves will be depleted in 6 to 6, years at the current rate of use. The burning of carbon-based fuels continues to add significant pollutants to the atmosphere. These and othersocioeconomic pressures are forcing nations to compete for finite energy sources for both fixed-facility and vehicle use. For the nited $tates& the demand for large amounts of cheap fuel togenerate electricity for industry and fluid fuel to run vehicles is puttin considerablepressure on ener y e!perts to look for ways to e!ploit alternate ener ysources * The ener y crisis in California could be the harbin er of thin s to come *The threat to affordable commercial power could accelerate development of alternative fuels. !t ishere that private industry may realiDe that the military*s e!perience with smallnuclear power plants could o er a n a ordable path to convertinseawater into fuel$ Military Realities #oday, the military faces several post$Cold ar realities* irst, the threat has chan%ed* &econd, re%ional conflicts are more

pro a le than all$out !ar* #hird, the United &tates !ill participate in 6oint and coalition operations that could take our forces any!here in the !orld for undetermined periods of time*

Finally& the .$. military must operate with a smaller budget and force structure. These realitiesalready are forcing substantial changes on the Army. &o& as we consider future Army energy sources&we foresee a more mobile Army that must deploy rapidly and sustain itself indefinitely anywhere inthe world as part of a coalition force * n addition,this future Army will have to depend on other nations toprovide at least some critical logistics support. An e ample of such a cooperative effort !as 8peration Desert &torm, !here coalitio n forces >includin%the United &tates? relied on some countries to supply pota le !ater and ot her countries to provide fuel* This arrangement allowed .$. cargo ships toconcentrate on delivering weapon systems and ammunition. But consider the follo!in% scenario* #he U*&* military is called on tosuppress armed conflict in a far$off re%ion* #he coalition forces consist of the United &tates and several #hird orld countries in the re%ion that have a vested interest in the outcome of theconflict* 8ur other allies are either un!illi n% or una le to support the re%ional action, either financially or militaril y* #he military effort !ill e a challen%e to support over time, especially !ith

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such asic supplies as fuel and !ater* Jo! can the United &tates sustain its forces- 4ne way to minimiDe the logistics challenge is for theArmy to produce fuel and potable water in& or close to& the theater. $mall nuclear power plantscould convert seawater into hydrogen fuel and potable water where needed& with less impact on theenvironment than caused by the current production& transportation& and use of carbon-based fuels.&ea!ater( #he Ultimate 7ner%y &ource !ndustrial nations are seeing severe energy crises occur more fre9uentlyworldwide& and& as world population increases and continues to demand a higher standard of living&carbon-based fuels will be depleted even more rapidly * Alternative ener%y sources must e developed*deally, these sources should e readily availa le !orld!ide !ith minimum processin% and e nonpollutin%* Current options include !ind, solar, hydroelectric, and nuclear ener%y, ut y

themselves they cannot satisfy the ener%y demands of oth lar%e, industrial facilities and small, mo ile eIuipment* hile each alternative ener%y source is useful, none provides the completeran%e of options currently offered y oil* t is here that thinkin% ]out side the o ] is needed* As difficult as th e pro lem seems, there is one ener%y source that is essentially infinite, is readilyavaila le !orld!ide, and produces no car on yproducts* #he source of that ener%y is sea!ater, and the method y !hich sea!ater is converted to a more direct fuel for use y commercial andmilitary eIuipment is simple* #he same conversion process %enerates pota le !ater* &ea!ater Conversion :rocess #emperatures %reater than 1,+++ de%rees Celsius, as found in the cores ofnuclear reactors, com ined !ith a thermochemical !ater$splittin% process, is pro a ly the most efficient means of reakin% do!n !ater into its component parts( molecular hydro%en and o y%en*#he minerals and salts in sea!ater !ould have to e removed y a desalination process efore the !ater$splittin% process and then urned or returned to the sea* &odium iodide >;a ? and othercompounds are ein% investi%ated as possi le catalysts for hi%h$temperature chemical reactions !ith !ater to release the hydro%en, !hich then can e contained and used as fuel* hen urned,hydro%en com ines !ith o y%en and produces only !ater and ener%y@ no atmospheric pollutants are created usin% this cycle* Burnin% coal or oil to %enerate electricity for production of hydro%en

y electrolysis !ould e !asteful and counterproductive* ;uclear po!er plants, on the other hand, can provide safe, efficient, and clean po!er for convertin% lar%e Iuantities of sea!ater intousa le hydro%en fuel* or the military, a small nuclear po!er plant could fit on a ar%e and e deplo yed to a remote theater, !here it could produce oth hydro%en fuel and pota le !ater for use

y U*&* and coalition forces in time of conflict* n peacetime, these same porta le plants could e deployed for humanitarian or disaster relief operations to %enerate electricity and to producehydro%en fuel and pota le !ater as necessary* &uch dual usa%e >hydro%en fuel for eIuipment and pota le !ater for human consumption? could help peacekeepers maintain a fra%ile peace* #hesedual roles make nuclear$%enerated products eIually attractive to oth industry and the military, and that could foster 6oint pro%rams to develop modern nuclear po!er sources for use in the 21st

century* &o hatOs ;e t- The Army must plan for the time when carbon-based fuels are no longer the fuel ofchoice for military vehicles. !n 8ust a few years& oil and natural gas prices have increased by , to percent& and& for the first time in years& the nited $tates last year authoriDed the release of some ofits oil reserves for commercial use. As the supply of oil decreases& its value as a resource for theplastics industry also will increase. The decreasing supply and increasing cost of carbon-based fuelseventually will ma%e the hydrogen fuel and nuclear power combination a more attractivealternative. 8ne proposed initiative !ould e for the Army to enter into a 6oint pro%ram !ith private industry to develop ne! en%ines that !ould use h ydro%en fuel* n fact, privateindustry already is developin% prototype automo iles !ith fuel cells that run on liIuefied or compressed hydro%en or methane fuel* BM has unveiled their hydro%en$po!ered 9+h0 sedan atthe !orldOs first ro otically operated pu li c hydro%en fuelin% station, located at the Munich, ermany, airport* #his prototype vehicle does not have fuel cells@ instead, it has a i valent 9*G$liter,12$cylinder en%ine and a 1G+$liter hydro%en tank and is capa le of speeds up to 1G+ miles per hour and a ran%e of up to 21 *9 miles* Another proposed initiative !ould e ploit previous Armye perience in developin% and usin% small, porta le nuclear po!er plants for the future production of hydro%en and creation of a hydro%en fuel infrastructure* Based on recent advances in smallnuclear po!er plant technolo%y, it !ould e prudent to consider developin% a prototype plant for possi le military applications* #he MJ$1A &tur%is floatin% nuclear po!er plant, a G9$M

pressuri4ed !ater reactor, !as the last nuclear po!er plant uilt and operated y the Army* #he MJ$1A &tur%is floatin% nuclear po!er plant, a G9$M pressuri4ed !ater reactor, !as the last

nuclear po!er plant uil t and operated y the Army* #he Army ;uclear :o!er :ro%ram The military considered the possibility of usingnuclear power plants to generate alternate fuels almost years ago and actively supported nuclearenergy as a means of reducing logistics re9uirements for coal& oil& and gasoline. Jo!ever, political, technical, andmilitary considerations forced the closure of the pro %ram efore a prototype could e uilt* #he Army Corps of 7n%ineers ran a ;uclear :o!er :ro%ram from 1


15/61

#echnolo%y for #omorro! Compact reactor concepts ased on hi%h$temperature, %as$cooled reactors are attractin% attention !orld!ide and could someday fulfill the role once envisi oned for theener%y depot* 8ne proposed desi%n is the pe le ed modular reactor >:BMR? ein% developed y 7skom in &out h Africa* estin%house, B; 0 nstruments 0td*, and 7 elon Corporation

currently are supportin% this pro6ect to develop commercial applications* A similar desi%n is the remote site$modular helium reactor >R&$MJR? ein% developed y eneral Atomics* fproven feasible& this technolo y could be used to replace retirin powerplants& e!pand the 8avy*s nuclear 9eet& and provide mobile electricpower for military or disaster relief operations$ deally, modular nuclear power plantscould be operated by a small staff of technicians and monitored by a central home office through asatellite uplin%. #he technolo%y of oth the :BMR and the R&$MJR features small, modular, helium$cooled reactors po!ered y ceramic$coated fuel particles that are inherentlysafe and cannot melt under any scenario* #his result s in simpler plant desi%n and lo!er capital costs than e istin% li%ht !ater reactors* #he :BMR, coupled !ith a direct$cycle %as tur ine%enerator, !ould have a thermal efficiency of a out G2 to G9 percent and !ould produce a out 11+ me%a!atts of electricity >M e?* #he smaller R&$MJR !ould produce a out 1+ to 29 M e,!hich is sufficient for po!erin% remote communities and military ases* Multiple modules can e installed on e istin% sites and refuelin% can e performed on line, since the fuel pe les recycle

throu%h the reactor continuously until they are e pended* >oth designs also feature coolant exit temperatures high enough tosupport the thermochemical water-splitting cycles needed to produce hydrogen. For militaryapplications& ($-'7( e9uipment could be transported inland by truc% or railroad& or sin lemodules could be built on bar es and deployed as needed to coastalre ions . The ArmyIs nuclear reactor on the barge Stur is & which provided electric power tothe Panama Canal from 6 @J to 6 /@& demonstrated the feasibility of this concept .

!n fact& the military previously used several power bar es 0oil-fired& , -' e powerplants1 during orld ar !! and in *orea and 4%inawa as emergency sources of electric power.Research teams around the !orld also are e aminin% other reactor concepts ased on liIuid$metal$cooled reactor systems !ith conventional sodium or l ead$alloy coolants and advanced !ater$cooled systems* #he Department of 7ner%y >D87? is supportin % research and development of innovative concepts that are ased on ultra$lon%$life reactors !ith cartrid%e cores* #hese reactors!ould not reIuire refuelin%, and the y could e deployed in the field, removed at the end of their service life, and replaced y a ne! system* #he proposed international reactor innovative and

secure > R &? desi%n, funded y D87Os ;uclear 7ner%y Research nitiative, !ould have a strai%ht urn core lastin% E years and may e availa le y 2+1+* >ased on increasingcosts of fossil fuels& a growing consensus that reenhouse as emissions must bereduced & and a growing demand for energy& there is little doubt that we will continue to seesignificant advances in nuclear energy research and development. ;uclear po!er is e pected to %ro! in the 21st century, !ith

potential enefits applica le to the military* $mall& modular nuclear power reactors in mobile or portable configurations&coupled with hydrogen production and desalination systems& could be used to produce fuel andpotable water for combat forces deployed in remote areas and reduce our logistics re9uirements.Assuming the inevitability of hydrogen fuel replacing fossil fuels& a clearly defined ob8ective thatwas missing in 6 @@ now exists. #he partnership et!een D8D and the former A7C to develop Army nuclear reactors contri uted to the technolo%y of oth militaryand small commercial po!er plants* #his historical relationship should e rene!ed ased on recent technolo%ical advances and pro6ected lo%istics reIuirements* D8D lo%istics planners should

reconsider military applications of nuclear po!er and support on%oin% D87 research and development initiatives to develop advanced reactors such as R&$MJR, R &, and others* :orthe /rmy to + ht and win on tomorrow*s distant battle+elds & nuclearpower will have to play a si ni+cant role$ ould this necessarily lead to a re irth of the old Army ;uclear :o!er :ro%ram,

!ith soldiers trained as reactor operators and reactor facilities mana%ed y the Corps of 7n%ineers- :ro a ly not* / more likely scenario wouldbe a small 9eet of nuclear power bar es or other portable power plantcon+ urations developed by ;(E& operated and maintained by


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'ilitary readiness is %ey to prevent extinction>rDeDins%i 62 S i%nie! * Br4e4inski >C& & counselor and trustee and cochairs the C& &Advisory Board, holds honorary de%rees from eor%eto!n University, illiams Colle%e,

ordham University, Colle%e of the Joly Cross, Alliance Colle%e, the Catholic University of0u lin, arsa! University, and ilnius University* Je is the recipient of numerous honors and

a!ards? e ruary 2+12 "After America'http())!!!*forei%npolicy*com)articles)2+12)+1)+3)afterLamerica-pa%e.+,+

or if America falters , the !orld is unlikely to e dominated y a sin%le preeminent successor $$ not even China* nternational uncertainty,increased tension amon% %lo al competitors, and even outri%ht chaos would be far more li%ely outcomes* hile a sudden,massive crisis of the American system $$ for instance, another financial crisis $$ !ould produce a fast$movin% chain reaction leadin% to %lo al

political and economic disorder & a steady drift by America into increasin%ly pervasive decay or endlessly !idenin% !arfare !ithslam would be unli%ely to produce , even y 2+29, an effective global successor * ;o sin%le po!er !ill e ready y then

to e ercise the role that the !orld, upon the fall of the &oviet Union in 1


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nature of the international environment left behind by a waning America& be it ordered andrestrained or & much more li%ely & self-serving and expansionist. A faltering nited $tates could alsofind its strategic partnership with 'exico in 8eopardy. AmericaOs economic resilience and political sta ility have so farmiti%ated many of the challen%es posed y such sensitive nei%h orhood issues as economic dependence, immi%ration, and the narcotics trade* Adecline in American power& however& would li%ely undermine the health and good 8udgment of the

.$. economic and political systems. A waning nited $ tates would li%ely be more nationalistic&more defensive about its national identity& more paranoid about its homeland security& and lesswilling to sacrifice resources for the sa%e of othersI development * #he !orsenin% of relations et!een a declinin%America and an internally trou led Me ico could even %ive rise to a particularly ominous phenomenon( the emer%ence, as a ma6or issue innationalistically aroused Me ican politics, of territorial claims 6ustified y history and i%nited y cross$ order incidents* Anotherconse9uence of American decline could be a corrosion of the generally cooperative management ofthe global commons $$shared interests such as sea lanes& space& cyberspace& and the environment&whose protection is imperative to the long-term growth of the global economy and the continuationof basic geopolitical stability . n almost every case, the potential absence of a constructive andin9uential =$S$ role would fatally undermine the essential communality of the lobal commons because the superiority and ubi9uity of American power creates orderwhere there would normally be conflict * ;one of this !ill necessarily come to pass* ;or is the concern that AmericaOs decline

!ould %enerate %lo al insecurity, endan%er some vulnera le states, and produce a more trou led ;orth American nei%h orhood an ar%ument forU*&* %lo al supremacy* n fact, the strate%ic comple ities of the !orld in the 21st century make such supremacy unattaina le* But those dreamin%today of AmericaOs collapse !ould pro a ly come to re%ret it* And as the world after America would be increasinglycomplicated and chaotic& it is imperative that the United &tates pursue a ne!, timely strate%ic vision for its forei%n policy $$ or start

racin% itself for a dan%erous slide into %lo al turmoil*

!ndependently- $'(s solve competitivenessFleischmann 566 >Chuck, Representative from the 3rd District in #ennessee, "&mall ModularReactors Could Jelp ith U*&* 7ner%y ;eeds', American :hysical &ociety, ol* =, ;o* 2,http())!!!*aps*or%)pu lications)capitolhillIuarterly)2+111+) ackpa%e*cfm, 8cto er 2+11?

The timely implementation of small reactors could position the nited $ tates on thecuttin ed e of nuclear technology * As the !orld moves for!ard in developin% ne! formsof nuclear po!er, the nited $ tates should set a high standard in safety and regulatoryprocess * 8ther nations have not een as ri%orous in their nuclear oversi%ht !ith far reachin%implications* As !e consider the disastrous events at the ukushima Daiichi nuclear facility & it isimperative that power companies and regulatory agencies around the world ade9uatelyensure reactor and plant safety to protect the public. =espite terrible tragedies like thenatural disaster in Vapan, nuclear power is still one of the safest and cleanest energy resourcesavailable. The plan to administer these small reactors would create technologicallyadvanced .$. 8obs and improve our lobal competitiveness * 8ur country needsIuality, hi%h payin% 6o s*!ncreasing our competitive edge in rapidly advancin% industries willput the nited $tates in a strategic position on the forefront of e!pandin lobal

technolo ies in the nuclear arena.

Competitiveness is %ey to leadershipRocco 'artino >:h*D* in astrophysics from the nstitute of Aerospace &tudies, &enior ello! atthe orei%n :olicy Research nstitute? &prin% 2 / "A &trate%y for &uccess( nnovation illRene! American 0eadership', 8r is, ol* 91, ;o* 2

Much of the forei%n policy discussion in the United &tates today is focused upon the dilemma posed y the raI ar and the threat posed y

1


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slamist terrorism* #hese pro lems are, of course, oth immediate and important* Jo!ever, America also faces other challen%esto its physical security and economic prosperity, and these are more lon%$term and pro a ly more

profound * #here is, first , the threat posed y our declinin% competitiveness in the %lo al economy , athreat most o viously represented y such risin% economic po!ers as China and ndia*1 #here is, second, the threat posed y our increasin%dependence on oil imports from the Middle 7ast* Moreover, these t!o threats are increasin%ly connected, as China and ndia themselves are%reatly increasin% their demand for Middle 7ast oil*2 #he United &tates of course faced %reat challen%es to its security and economy in the past,

most o viously from ermany and Vapan in the first half of the t!entieth century and from the &oviet Union in the second half * Crucial toAmericaOs a ility to prevail over these past challen%es !as our technolo%ical and industrialleadership , and especially our a ility to continuously recreate it * ndeed,the United &tates has eenuniIue amon% %reat po!ers in i ts a ility to keep on creatin% and recreatin% ne! technolo%ies and ne!industries, %eneration after %eneration* :erpetual innovation and technolo%ical leadership mi%hteven e said to e the American !ay of maintainin% primacy in !orld affairs* #hey are almost certainly !hatAmerica !ill have to pursue in order to prevail over the contemporary challen%es involvin% economic competitiveness and ener%y dependence*

And& Competitiveness is %ey to benign leadership 3 $olves your impact turnsRichard Armitage > ormer Deputy &ecretary of &tate? and Voseph Nye >:rofessor of :olitical&cience at Jarvard? Decem er 12 2 / " hy &o An%ry, America-'http())!!!*atimes*com)atimes)&outhLAsia) 012Df+1*html

#he !orld is dissatisfied !ith American leadership* &hocked and fri%htened after &eptem er 11, 2++1, !e put for!ard an an%ry face to the %lo e, not one that reflectedthe more traditional American values of hope and optimism, tolerance and opportunity* #his fearful approach has hurt the United &tatesO a ility to rin% allies to its

cause, ut it is not too late to chan%e * #he nation should em race a smarter strate%y that lends our ]hard] and]soft] po!er $ our a ility to attract and persuade, as !ell as our a ility to use economic and military mi%ht* hether it is endin% the crisis in :akistan,!innin% the !ars in raI and Af%hanistan, deterrin% ranOs and ;orth oreaOs nuclear am itions, mana%in% ChinaOs rise or improvin% the lives of those left ehind y%lo ali4ation, the U& needs a roader, more alanced approach* 0est anyone think that this approach is !eak or naive, remem er that Defense &ecretary Ro ert

ates used a ma6or speech on ;ovem er 2= ]to make the case for stren%thenin% our capacity to use OsoftO po!er and for etter inte%ratin% it !ith OhardO po!er]* e $one Repu lican, one Democrat $ have devoted our lives to promotin% American pre$eminence as a force for %ood in the !orld* But the U& cannot stay on top !ithoutstron% and !illin% allies and partners* 8ver the past si years, too many people have confused sharin% the urden !ith relinIuishin% po!er* n fact, !hen !e let othershelp, !e are e tendin% U& influence, not diminishin% it* &ince &eptem er 11, the !ar on terrorism has shaped this isolatin% outlook, ecomin% the central focus ofU& en%a%ement !ith the !orld* #he threat from terrorists !ith %lo al reach is likely to e !ith us for decades* But unless they have !eapons of mass destruction,%roups such as al$âeda pose no e istential threat to the U& $ unlike our old foes ;a4i ermany and the &oviet Union* n fact, al$âeda and its ilk hope to defeat us

y usin% our o!n stren%th a%ainst us* #hey hope that !e !ill lunder, overreact and turn !orld opinion a%ainst us* #his is a deli erately set trap, and one !hose %ravestrate%ic conseIuences e tend far eyond the costs this nation !ould suffer from any small$scale terrorist attack, no matter ho! individually tra%ic and collectively

painful* e cannot return to a nearsi%hted pre$&eptem er 11 mindset that underestimated the al$âeda threat, ut neither can !e remain stuck in a narro! post$&eptem er 11 mindset that alienates much of the !orld* More roadly, !hen our !ords do not match our actions, !e demean our character and moral standin%* ecannot lecture others a out democracy !hile !e ack dictators* e cannot denounce torture and !ater oardin% in other countries and condone it at home* e cannotallo! Cu aOs uantanamo Bay or raIOs A u hrai to ecome the sym ols of American po!er* #he United &tates has lon% een the i% kid on the lock, and it !ill

pro a ly remain so for years to come* But its stayin% po!er has a %reat deal to do !ith !hether it is perceived as a ully or a friend* &tates and non$state actors can

etter address todayOs challen%es !hen they can dra! in allies@ those !ho alienate potential friends stand at %reater risk* #he past si years have demonstrated thathard po!er alone cannot secure the nationOs lon%$term %oals * #he U& military remains the est in the !orld, even af terhavin% een !orn do!n from years of !ar* e !ill have to invest in people and materiel to maintain current levels of readiness@ as a percenta%e of %ross domestic

product, U& defense spendin% is actually !ell elo! Cold ar levels* But an e tra dollar spent on hard po!er !ill not necessarily rin% an e tra dollarOs !orth of

security* After all, security threats are no lon%er simply military threats *China is uildin% t!o coal$fired po!er plants each!eek* U& hard po!er !ill do little to cur this trend, ut U&$developed technolo%y can makeChinese coal cleaner, !hich helps the environment and opens ne! markets for Americanindustry* n a chan%in% !orld, the U& should ecome a smarter po!er y once a%ain investin%in the %lo al %ood $ y providin% thin%s that people and %overnments !ant ut cannot attain!ithout U& leadership* By complementin% U& military and economic stren%th !ith %reaterinvestments in soft po!er, ashin%ton can uild the frame!ork to tackle tou%h %lo alchallen%es * e call this smart po!er* &mart po!er is not a out %ettin% the !orld to like us* t is a out developin% a strate%y that alances our hard >coercive?

po!er !ith our soft >attractive? po!er* Durin% the Cold ar, the U& deterred &oviet a%%ression throu%h investments in hard po!er* But as ates noted late last month,U& leaders also reali4ed that ]the nature of the conflict reIuired us to develop key capa ilities and institutions $ many of them non$military]* &o the U& used its soft

po!er to re uild 7urope and Vapan and to esta lish the norms and institutions that ecame the core of the international order for the past half$century* #he Cold arended under a arra%e of hammers on the Berlin all rather than a arra%e of artillery across the ulda ap precisely ecause of this inte%rated approach*

$ leadership solves all other impacts 3 collapse of primacy results in nuclear warThayer& 2 @ >Bradley A*, Assistant :rofessor of :olitical &cience at the University of Minnesota, Duluth, #he ;ational nterest,

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;ovem er $Decem er, " n Defense of :rimacy', le is?

A remarka le fact a out international politics t oday$$in a !orld !here American primacy is clearly and unam i%uously on display$$is t hat countries !ant to ali%n themselves !iththe United &tates * 8f course, this is not out of any sense of altruism, in most cases, ut ecause doin% so allo!s them to use the po!er of the United &tates for their o!n purposes$$their o!n protection, or to%ain %reater influence* 8f 1 E9 to five?, and a i% chan%e from the Cold ar !hen the ratio !as a out 1*E t o one of states ali%ned !ith t he United &tates versus the &oviet Union* ;ever efore in its history has this country, or

any country, had so many allies* U*&* primacy$$andthe and!a%onin% effect$$has also %iven us e tensive influence in

international politics , allo!in% the United &tates to shape the ehavior of states and international institutions* &uch influence comes in many forms, one of !hich isAmericaOs a ility to create coalitions of like$minded states to free osovo, sta ili4e Af%hanistan, invade raI or to stop proliferation t hrou%h the:roliferation &ecurity nitiative >:& ?* Doin% so allo!s t he United &tates to operate !ith allies outside of the U;, !here it can e stymied y opponents* American$led !ars in osovo, Af%hanistan and raI stand in contrast to the U;Osina ility to save the people of Darfur or even to conduct any military campai%n to reali4e the %oals of its charter* #he Iuiet effectiveness of the :& in dismantlin% 0i yaOs MD pro%rams and unravelin% the A* ̂ * han proliferation

net!ork are in sharp relief to the typically toothless attempts y the U; to halt proliferation* You can count !ith one hand countries opposed to theUnited &tates * #hey are the ] an% of ive]( China, Cu a, ran, ;orth orea and ene4uela* 8f course, countries like ndia, for e ample, do not a%ree !ith all policy choices made y the United &tates, such asto!ard ran, ut ;e! Delhi is friendly to ashin%ton* 8nly the ] an% of ive] may e e pected to consistently resist the a%enda and actions of the United &tates* China is clearly the most important of these states ecause it is a risin%

%reat po!er* But even Bei6in% is intimidated y the U nited & tates and refrains from openly challen%in% U*&* po!er * China proclaims that it !ill, if necessary, resort to other mechanisms of challen%in% the United &tates, includin% asymmetric strate%ies such as tar%etin% communication and intelli%ence satellites upon !hich the

United &tates depends* But China may not e confident those strate%ies !ould !ork, and so it is likely to refrain fro m testin% the United &tates directly for the foreseea le future ecause ChinaOs po!er enefits, as !e shall see, fromthe international order U*&* primacy creates* #he other states are far !eaker than China* or three of the ] an% of ive] cases$$ ene4uela, ran, Cu a$$it is an anti$U*&* r e%ime that is the source of t he pro lem@ the country itself is notintrinsically anti$American* ndeed, a chan%e of re%ime in Caracas, #ehran or Javana could very !ell reorient relations* #JR8U J8U# J RY, peace and sta ility have een %reat enefits of an era !here t here !as a dominant

po!er$$Rome, Britain or the United &tates today* &cholars and statesmen have lon% reco%ni4ed the irenic effect of po!er on the anarchic !orld of international politics* 7verythin% !e think of!hen !e consider the current international order$$ free trade, a ro ust monetary re%ime,increasin% respect for human ri%hts, %ro!in% democrati4ation$$ is directly linked to U*&* po!er* Retrenchment proponents seem to think that t he current system can e maintained !ithout the current amount of U*&* po!er ehind it* n that t hey are dead !ron% and need to e reminded of one of historyOs most si%nificant lessons(

Appallin% thin%s happen !hen international orders collapse* #he Dark A%es follo!ed RomeOscollapse* Jitler succeeded the order esta lished at ersailles* ithout U*&* po!er, the li eralorder created y the United &tates !ill end 6ust as assuredly * As country and !estern %reat Ral Donner san%( ]You donOt kno! !hat youOve %ot >untilyou lose it?*] ConseIuently, it is important to note !hat those %ood thin%s are* n addition to ensurin% the security of the United &tates and its allies, American primacy !ithin t he international system causes many positive outcomes for

ashin%ton and the !orld* #he first has een a more peaceful !orld* Durin% the Cold ar, U*&* leadership reduced friction amon% many states that!ere historical anta%onists , most nota ly rance and est ermany* #oday, American primacy helps keep a num er ofcomplicated relationships ali%ned $$ et!een reece and #urkey, srael and 7%ypt, &outh orea and Vapan, ndia and :akistan, ndonesia and Australia* #his is not to say it fulfills

oodro! ilsonOs vision of endin% all !ar* ars still occur !here ashin%tonOs interests are not seriously threatened, such as in Darfur, ut a :a Americana does reduce !arOslikelihood, particularly !arOs !orst form ( %reat po!er !ars* &econd, American po!er %ives the United&tates the a ility to spread democracy and other elements of its ideolo%y of li eralism * Doin% so is a source ofmuch %ood for the countries concerned as !ell as the United &tates ecause, as Vohn 8!en noted on t hese pa%es in the &prin% 2++= issue, li eral democracies are more likely to ali%n !ith the United &tates and e sympathetic to the

American !orldvie!*3 &o, spreadin% democracy helps maintain U*&* primacy* n addition, once states are %overned democratically, the likelihood ofany type of conflict is si%nificantly reduced* #his is not ecause democracies do not have clashin% interests* ndeed they do* Rather, it is ecause they are more open, moretransparent and more likely to !ant to resolve thin%s amica ly in concurrence !ith U*&* leadership* And so, in %eneral, democratic states are %ood for their citi4ens as !ell as for advancin% the interests of the United &tates* Crit icshave faulted the Bush Administration for attemptin% to spread democracy in the Middle 7ast, la elin% such an effort a modern form of tiltin% at !indmills* t is the o li%ation of BushOs critics to e plain !hy democracy is %ood enou%hfor estern states ut not for the rest, and, one %athers from the ar%ument, should not even e attempted* 8f course, !hether democracy in the Middle 7ast !ill have a peaceful or sta ili4in% influence on AmericaOs interests in the shortrun is open to Iuestion* :erhaps democratic Ara states !ould e more opposed to srael, ut nonetheless, their people !ould e etter off* #he United &tates has rou%ht democracy to Af%hanistan, !here E*9 million Af%hans, G+

percent of them !omen, voted in a critical 8cto er 2++G election, even thou%h remnant #ali an forces threatened them* #he first free elections !ere held in raI in Vanuary 2++9* t !as the military po!er of the United &tates that putraI on t he path to democracy* ashin%ton fostered democratic %overnments in 7urope, 0atin America, Asia and the Caucasus* ;o! even the Middle 7ast is increasin%ly democratic* #hey may not yet look like estern$style

democracies, ut democratic pro%ress has een made in Al%eria, Morocco, 0e anon, raI, u!ait, the :alestinian Authority and 7%ypt* By all accounts, the march of democracy has een impressive* #hird, alon% !ith the %ro!th in the

num er of democratic states around the !orld has een the %ro!th of t he %lo al economy* ith its allies, the United &tates has la ored to create aneconomically li eral !orld!ide net!ork characteri4ed y free trade and commerce, respect for international property ri%hts, and mo ility of capital and la or markets* #he economic sta ility and prosperity that stems from this economic order is a %lo al pu lic%ood from !hich all states enefit , particularly the poorest states in the #hird orld* #he United &tates created thisnet!ork not out of altruism ut for the enefit and the economic !ell$ ein% of America* #his economic order forces American industries to e competitive, ma imi4es efficiencies and %ro!th, and enefits defense as !ell ecause thesi4e of t he economy makes the defense urden mana%ea le* 7conomic spin$offs foster the development of militar y technolo%y, helpin% to ensure military pro!ess* :erhaps the %reatest testament to the enefits of the economic net!ork comes from Deepak 0al, a former ndian forei%n service diplomat and researcher at t he orld Bank, !ho started his career confident in the socialist ideolo%y of post$independence ndia* A andonin% the positions of his youth, 0alno! reco%ni4es that the only !ay to rin% relief to desperately poor countries of the #hird orld is throu%h the adoption of free market economic policies and %lo ali4ation, !hich are facilitated throu%h American primacy*G As a

!itness to the failed alternative economic systems, 0al is one of the stron%est academic proponents of American primacy due to the economic prosperity it provides* ourth and finally, the United &tates , inseekin% primacy, has een !illin% to use its po!er not only to advance its interests ut to promote the !elfare of people all overthe %lo e* #he United &tates is t he earthOs leadin% source of positive e ternalities for the !orld* #he U*&* milit ary has participated in over fifty operations since the end of the Cold ar$$and most of those missions have

een humanitarian in nature* ndeed, the U*&* military is the earthOs ]


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!as !ell$spent ecause it helped people in the !ake of disasters, ut it also had a real impact on t he ar on #error* hen people in the Muslim !orld !itness the U*&* military conductin% a humanitarian mission, there is a clearly

positive impact on Muslim opinion of the United &tates* As the ar on #error is a !ar of ideas and opinion as much as militaryaction, for the United &tates humanitarian missions are the eIuivalent of a lit4krie% * #J7R7 &no other state, %roup of states or international or%ani4ation that can provide these %lo al enefits*

;one even comes close* #he United ;ations cannot ecause it is riven !ith conflicts and ma6or cleava%es that divide the international ody time and a%ain on matters %reat and tr ivial* #hus it lacks thea ility to speak !ith one voice on salient issues and to act as a unified force once a decision is reached* #he 7U has similar pro lems* Does anyone e pect Russia or China to take up t hese responsi ilities- #hey may have the desire,

ut they do not have the capa ilities* 0etOs face it( for the time ein%, American primacy remains humanityOs only practical hope of solvin% the !orldOs ills*

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Plan Text

PlanE The nited $tates federal government should offer power-purchaseagreements to companies that generate electricity from floating $mall 'odular

(eactors.

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Contention Two is $olvency

Floating $'(s solve- =4# engagement %ey- collapse of nuclear industry meanswarming inevitable

Vohn Micata > ounder N Chief 7ner%y &trate%ist of Blue :hoeni nc, Motley ool? April 22 6; "Can &mall Modular ;uclear Reactors ind #heir &ea 0e%s-',http())!!!*fool*com)investin%)%eneral)2+1G)+G)2 )can$small$modular$nuclear$reactors$find$their$sea*asp

;uclear po!er plants do rin% 6o s to rural areas, and in some cases they actually oost local housin% prices since these plants create 6o s*Jo!ever, !hether or not you elieve nuclear po!er does or does not emit harmful radiation, many people !ould likely opt to not live ri%ht ne tdoor to a nuclear po!er plant facility if they had the choice* Today& they may not even need to consider such a movethan%s to a floating plant concept coming out of '!T& which largely builds on the success of the .$.Army of Corp #ngineersI '7-6A floating nuclear reactor& installed on the $turgis & a vessel thatprovided power to military and civilians around the Panama Canal. The $turgis wasdecommissioned& but only because there was ample power generation on land. $o the viability

of a 9oatin nuclear plant does make a lot of sense$ Presently the only floatingnuclear plant is being constructed in (ussia 0expected to be in service in two years1. 7owever& thatplant is slated to be moored on a barge in a harbor. That differs from '!TIs idea to put a 2 ' ereactor on a floating platform roughly six miles out to sea. The problem with the floating reactoridea or land-based $'( version is most investors are hard-pressed to fork overmoney needed for a nuclear build-out that could cost billions of dollars and ta%e over a decadeto complete. #hat very pro lem is today pla%uin% the land$ ased m:o!er &MR pro%ram of #he Ba cock N ilco Co* >;Y&7( B C ? *Also, althou%h the reactors !ould have a constant coolin% source in the ocean !ater, Od like to see studies that sho! that sea life is not disrupted*#hen there is al!ays the issue !ith security and po!er lines to the mainland !hich needs to e addressed* At a time when reducingglobal warming is becoming a hotly debated topic by the !PCC& these $'(s 0land or sea based1 canhelp reduce our carbon footprint if legislation would allow them to proceed. !nstead& the

government is ta%ing perfectly good cathedral-siDed nuclear power plants offline& something theywill li%ely come to regret in coming years from an economic and environmental perspective. >ustask the


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$'(s are critical to reducing emissions and preventing catastrophic globalwarming 3 any alternative failsCohen 2 62[Armond, 7 ecutive Director, Clean Air #ask orce, 2$13, "Decar oni4ation( #he ;uclear 8ption,' http())ener%y*national6ournal*com)2+12)+2)is$america$poised$for$nuclear*php-print.trueNprintcomment.21=1= +/#hree years a%o, '!T5s Richard Mester published a simple analysis of what would be re9uired to meetPresident 4bama5s J, -by-2 greenhouse gas emission reduction target. The results were star%E#ven if energy efficiency were to improve at rates better than historical averages& and biofuelswere able to meaningfully reduce transportation emissions in the near term 0a proposition withwhich we disagree1& meeting 4bama5s goal would re9uire retrofitting every existing coal plant inthe country with car on capture and seIuestration > CC$1& building twice again that much fossil capacity withCC$& building close to ,& wind farms the siDe of 'assachusetts5 Cape ind& and building nearly;& solar farms the si4e of California5s vanpah* And &having done all that& increasing the amount of nuclearpower we generate by a factor of five. Vust on its face, this is a tall order . The capital investment is

8aw-dropping& and it is becoming increasingly difficult to site new energy pro8ects , re%ardless of !hetherthey are solar or !ind farms, transmission lines, CC& infrastructure, shale %as drillin%, or nuclear facilities* More su tly, integrating thesevarious energy sourcesBespecially balancing output of intermittent renewables in an electric gridwith no significant ability to store energy B is a ma8or challenge H it is far from certain it can even bedone at very large scale. To maximiDe our odds of meeting the target& we will need to prioritiDedevelopment and deployment of technologies that appear capable of growing economically to fullscale. O Cheap unscru ed natural gas is a 'c$olutionQ to the problemBtempting& but probably notthe healthiest long-term choice. !n order to ma%e a ma8or contribution to climate abatement&methane emissions from natural gas production and distribution will need to be reduced & and gas-fired power plants will need to use CC$ technologies * And&although gas in the nited $tates today issold at prices below production costs& that cannot continue for long & especially in increasinglyinternational mar%ets. &imilarly& soft energy pathsQ li%e P: power >also sometimes today sold elo! cost? willneed significant grid support and Dero-carbon balancing to generate meaningful emissionreductions . The economic supply curve for large& attractive sites for these pro8ects is bound to bendsharply upwards over time as well . !n this context& nuclear power has potentially si ni+cant

advanta es to o er E!t is demonstrably low-carbonH it provides baseload energy H unli%ewind and solar & it has high power densityH and & although gas is cheap today& the price of newnuclear power appears to approach that of new coal * :erhaps more importantly, the price of new nuclearplants will decline as years pass. $tandardiDation will lead to some cost reductionsH factory assemblyof small& modular units could bring about further step-change reductions >as it has for automo iles andairplanes? in production costs . ;one of this means that nuclear is poised for a renaissance in the United &tates* Utilities and theirre%ulators !on5t ar%ue !ith _3 %as, Con%ress is un!illin% to put a price on car on, and some people remain vehemently opposed to nuclear

ener%y* Ultimately, ho!ever, nuclear energy is pro a ly an indispensible element of any credibleplan to substantially decarboni e the country $ #he ;uclear Re%ulatory Commission5s recent

approval of the ne! estin%house reactor desi%n is %ood ne!s in this re%ard, as it should help revitali4e the American nuclear industry and keepit movin% on a path of continuous improvement* n the lon%er term, a host of newer tech nologies& including passivelycooled small reactors & gas-cooled reactors& and reactors with li9uid fuels offer significant potentialfor further improvements in cost and safety . The country would do well to support continueddevelopment and deployment of these designs. !n an ideal world& we might wait to scale up nuclearpower until after we5ve exhausted all efficiency and renewables options * Unfortunately, ho!ever, we don5thave decades to do this& even if we thought traditional green sources would eventually fill the Dero-carbon void& which seems unrealistic . 7alf of the C42 emitted today will still be warming the planet6& years from now& and these legacy emissions won5t erase themselves * e need to develop all lo!$car onener%y options no! to hed%e a%ainst the risk of serious climate conseIuences@ nuclear power & despite its %enuine challen%es,cannot be left o the table$

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Nuclear5s inevitable globally but won5t solve warming until the $ develops $'(5sMovering et al 2 62[Michael, H et al and #ed ;ordhaus co$founders of American 7nvironics and the Breakthrou%h nstitute a think tank that !orks on ener%y and climate chan%e HA;D H Vesse Venkins$Director of 7ner%y and C limate :olicy, the Breakthrou%h nstitute, hy e ;eed Radical nnovation to Make ; e! ;uclear 7ner%y Cheap,ut they also need power to be cheap. &o lon% as coal remains thecheapest source of electricity in the developin% !orld, it is li%ely to remain %ing . O The most worrying threat to thefuture of nuclear isnOt the political fallout from ukushima $$ itOs economic reality . #ven as new nuclear plants arebuilt in the developing world& old plants are being retired in the developed world. or e ample, ermanyOs

plan to phase$out nuclear simply relies on allo!in% e istin% plants to e shut do!n !hen they reach the ends of their lifetime* iven the si4e andcost of ne! conventional plants today, those plants are unlikely to e replaced !ith ne! ones* As such, the combined political andeconomic constraints associated with current nuclear energy technologies mean that nuclear

energyIs share of global energy generation is unli%ely to grow in the comin% decades, as global energydemand is li%ely to increase faster than new plants can be deployed. O To move the needle on nuclearenergy to the point that it might actually be capable of displacing fossil fuels& weIll need newnuclear tech nolo ies that are cheaper and smaller * #oday, there are a ran%e of nascent, smaller

nuclear po!er plant desi%ns, some of them modifications of the current li%ht$!ater reactor technolo%ies used on su marines, and others, like

thorium fuel and fast reeder reactors, !hich are ased on entirely different nuclear fission technolo%ies* Smaller& modularreactors can be built much faster and cheaper than traditional lar e-scalenuclear power plants * ;e t$%eneration nuclear reactors are desi%ned to e incapa le of meltin% do!n, produce drastically

less radioactive !aste, make it very difficult or impossi le to produce !eapons %rade material, useless !ater, and reIuire less maintenance* ` Mostof these desi%ns still face su stantial technical hurdles efore they !ill e ready for commercial demonstration* #hat means a %reat deal ofresearch and innovation !ill e necessary to make these ne t %eneration plants via le and capa le of displacin% coal and %as* The nited

$ tates could be a leader on developing these technologies & but unfortunately .$. nuclear policyremains mostly stuc% in the past . (ather than creating new solutions , efforts to restart the .$. nuclear industryhave mostly focused on encouraging utilities to build the next generation of large& li%ht$!ater reactors withloan guarantees and various other su sidies and re%ulatory fi es* ith a fe! e ceptions, this is lar%ely true else!here aroundthe world as !ell* ` ;uclear has en6oyed ipartisan support in Con%ress for more than =+ years, ut the enthusiasm is runnin% out* #he8 ama administration deserves credit for authori4in% fundin% for t!o small modular reactors, !hich !ill e uilt at the &avannah River site in&outh Carolina* But a much more s!eepin% reform of U*&* nuclear ener%y policy is reIuired* At present, the N uclear ( e%ulatory C ommissionhas little institutional kno!led%e of anythin% other than li%ht$!ater reactors and virtually no capa ility to revie! or re%ulate alternative desi%ns*#his a ects nuclear innovation in other countries as !ell, since the 8A'

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remains& despite its many critics& the lobal old standard for thorou hre ulation of nuclear ener y$ Most other countries follow the 8A'*s leadwhen it comes to establishin new tech nical and operational standardsfor the desi n& construction&am

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