Nuclear Energy Outlook Javier Reig Nuclear Safety Division ... · Nuclear Energy Outlook Javier...
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Nuclear Nuclear Nuclear Nuclear Nuclear Nuclear Nuclear Nuclear Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Javier Reig Javier Reig Javier Reig Javier Reig Javier Reig Javier Reig Javier Reig Javier Reig Nuclear Safety Division Nuclear Safety Division Nuclear Safety Division Nuclear Safety Division Nuclear Safety Division Nuclear Safety Division Nuclear Safety Division Nuclear Safety Division OECD Nuclear Energy OECD Nuclear Energy OECD Nuclear Energy OECD Nuclear Energy OECD Nuclear Energy OECD Nuclear Energy OECD Nuclear Energy OECD Nuclear Energy Agency Agency Agency Agency Agency Agency Agency Agency
Transcript of Nuclear Energy Outlook Javier Reig Nuclear Safety Division ... · Nuclear Energy Outlook Javier...
Nuclear
Nuclear
Nuclear
Nuclear
Nuclear
Nuclear
Nuclear
Nuclear
Energy
Energy
Energy
Energy
Energy
Energy
Energy
Energy
Outlook
Outlook
Outlook
Outlook
Outlook
Outlook
Outlook
Outlook
Javier Reig
Javier Reig
Javier Reig
Javier Reig
Javier Reig
Javier Reig
Javier Reig
Javier Reig
Nuclear Safety Division
Nuclear Safety Division
Nuclear Safety Division
Nuclear Safety Division
Nuclear Safety Division
Nuclear Safety Division
Nuclear Safety Division
Nuclear Safety Division
OECD Nuclear Energy
OECD Nuclear Energy
OECD Nuclear Energy
OECD Nuclear Energy
OECD Nuclear Energy
OECD Nuclear Energy
OECD Nuclear Energy
OECD Nuclear Energy
Agency
Agency
Agency
Agency
Agency
Agency
Agency
Agency
A lasting tribute to NEA’
A lasting tribute to NEA’
A lasting tribute to NEA’
A lasting tribute to NEA’
A lasting tribute to NEA’
A lasting tribute to NEA’
A lasting tribute to NEA’
A lasting tribute to NEA’s ssss sss
50 years
50 years
50 years
50 years
50 years
50 years
50 years
50 years
••First ever NEA outlook
First ever NEA outlook
••Responding to renewed
Responding to renewed
interest in nuclear energy
interest in nuclear energy
••Intention to inform
the debate
Intention to inform
the debate
2OECD NEA: Nuclear Energy Outlook '08
W WWWW WWWhyhyhyhyhyhyhyhythe renewed interest
the renewed interest
the renewed interest
the renewed interest
the renewed interest
the renewed interest
the renewed interest
the renewed interest
in nuclear energy?
in nuclear energy?
in nuclear energy?
in nuclear energy?
in nuclear energy?
in nuclear energy?
in nuclear energy?
in nuclear energy?
Fossil fuel
Fossil fuel
Fossil fuel
Fossil fuel
Fossil fuel
Fossil fuel
Fossil fuel
Fossil fuel
prices
prices
prices
prices
prices
prices
prices
prices
Growth in energy
Growth in energy
Growth in energy
Growth in energy
Growth in energy
Growth in energy
Growth in energy
Growth in energy
demand
demand
demand
demand
demand
demand
demand
demand
3OECD NEA: Nuclear Energy Outlook '08
Security of
Security of
Security of
Security of
Security of
Security of
Security of
Security of
energy supply
energy supply
energy supply
energy supply
energy supply
energy supply
energy supply
energy supply
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO2 2222 222emissions +
emissions +
emissions +
emissions +
emissions +
emissions +
emissions +
emissions +
climate change
climate change
climate change
climate change
climate change
climate change
climate change
climate change
W WWWW WWWhyhyhyhyhyhyhyhythe renewed interest
the renewed interest
the renewed interest
the renewed interest
the renewed interest
the renewed interest
the renewed interest
the renewed interest
in nuclear energy?
in nuclear energy?
in nuclear energy?
in nuclear energy?
in nuclear energy?
in nuclear energy?
in nuclear energy?
in nuclear energy?
4OECD NEA: Nuclear Energy Outlook '08
W WWWW WWWhyhyhyhyhyhyhyhythe renewed interest
the renewed interest
the renewed interest
the renewed interest
the renewed interest
the renewed interest
the renewed interest
the renewed interest
in nuclear energy?
in nuclear energy?
in nuclear energy?
in nuclear energy?
in nuclear energy?
in nuclear energy?
in nuclear energy?
in nuclear energy?
Carbon
Carbon--dioxide emissions from
dioxide emissions fromfossil
fossil--fired
fired
5OECD NEA: Nuclear Energy Outlook '08
Carbon
Carbon--dioxide emissions from
dioxide emissions fromfossil
fossil--fired
fired
power plants by far the biggest and fastest
power plants by far the biggest and fastest--
growing sources of CO
growing sources of CO22
Business as usual
Business as usual
Business as usual
Business as usual
Business as usual
Business as usual
Business as usual
Business as usualto 2050
to 2050
to 2050
to 2050
to 2050
to 2050
to 2050
to 2050
Population
Populationupupbyby50%...
50%...
6OECD NEA: Nuclear Energy Outlook '08
Business as usual
Business as usual
Business as usual
Business as usual
Business as usual
Business as usual
Business as usual
Business as usualto 2050
to 2050
to 2050
to 2050
to 2050
to 2050
to 2050
to 2050
Energy
Energydemand
demandupupbyby100%...
100%...
7OECD NEA: Nuclear Energy Outlook '08
Business as usual
Business as usual
Business as usual
Business as usual
Business as usual
Business as usual
Business as usual
Business as usualto 2050
to 2050
to 2050
to 2050
to 2050
to 2050
to 2050
to 2050
Electricity
Electricitydemand
demandupupbyby150%...
150%...
8OECD NEA: Nuclear Energy Outlook '08
Business as usual
Business as usual
Business as usual
Business as usual
Business as usual
Business as usual
Business as usual
Business as usual2050
2050
2050
2050
2050
2050
2050
2050
Population
Populationupupbyby50%...
50%...
Energy
Energydemand
demandupupbyby100%...
100%...
Electricity
Electricitydemand
demandupupbyby150%...
150%...
9OECD NEA: Nuclear Energy Outlook '08
CO
CO22emissions per unit of energy consumption
emissions per unit of energy consumption
must
must be
be reduce
reduceddby a factor of 4
by a factor of 4
Nuclear could
Nuclear could make a significant contribution
make a significant contribution
Nuclear energy’s potential role
Nuclear energy’s potential role
Nuclear energy’s potential role
Nuclear energy’s potential role
Nuclear energy’s potential role
Nuclear energy’s potential role
Nuclear energy’s potential role
Nuclear energy’s potential role
43
9 r
ea
cto
rs
43
9 r
ea
cto
rs
…1
40
0 r
ea
cto
rs
…1
40
0 r
ea
cto
rs
in 2
05
0in
20
50
60
0 t
o…
60
0 t
o…
10
43
9 r
ea
cto
rs
43
9 r
ea
cto
rs
In J
un
e 2
00
8In
Ju
ne
20
08
Nuclear
Nuclearcould
couldexpand
expandbybya a factor
factorof of nearly
nearly44
OECD NEA: Nuclear Energy Outlook '08
Potential benefits of
Potential benefits of
Potential benefits of
Potential benefits of
Potential benefits of
Potential benefits of
Potential benefits of
Potential benefits of nuclear
nuclear
nuclear
nuclear
nuclear
nuclear
nuclear
nuclear
power
power
power
power
power
power
power
power
Virtually CO
Virtually CO
Virtually CO
Virtually CO
Virtually CO
Virtually CO
Virtually CO
Virtually CO2 2222 222- ---- ---free
free
free
free
free
free
free
free
11
OECD NEA: Nuclear Energy Outlook '08
Diverse
Diverse
Diverse
Diverse
Diverse
Diverse
Diverse
Diverse, , , , , , , , politically
politically
politically
politically
politically
politically
politically
politicallystable
stable
stable
stable
stable
stable
stable
stable
sources
sources
sources
sources
sources
sources
sources
sourcesof of of of of of of of plentiful
plentiful
plentiful
plentiful
plentiful
plentiful
plentiful
plentifuluranium
uranium
uranium
uranium
uranium
uranium
uranium
uranium
Potential benefits of
Potential benefits of
Potential benefits of
Potential benefits of
Potential benefits of
Potential benefits of
Potential benefits of
Potential benefits of nuclear
nuclear
nuclear
nuclear
nuclear
nuclear
nuclear
nuclear
power
power
power
power
power
power
power
power
12
OECD NEA: Nuclear Energy Outlook '08
Cost
Cost
Cost
Cost
Cost
Cost
Cost
Costcompetitive
competitive
competitive
competitive
competitive
competitive
competitive
competitiveand
and
and
and
and
and
and
and very
very
very
very
very
very
very
very
insensitive
insensitive
insensitive
insensitive
insensitive
insensitive
insensitive
insensitiveto totototo tototoprice
price
price
price
price
price
price
priceof of of of of of of of uranium
uranium
uranium
uranium
uranium
uranium
uranium
uranium
Potential benefits of
Potential benefits of
Potential benefits of
Potential benefits of
Potential benefits of
Potential benefits of
Potential benefits of
Potential benefits of nuclear
nuclear
nuclear
nuclear
nuclear
nuclear
nuclear
nuclear
power
power
power
power
power
power
power
power
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OECD NEA: Nuclear Energy Outlook '08
Avoids
Avoids
Avoids
Avoids
Avoids
Avoids
Avoids
Avoidssignificant
significant
significant
significant
significant
significant
significant
significanthealth
health
health
health
health
health
health
healtheffects
effects
effects
effects
effects
effects
effects
effects
Potential benefits of
Potential benefits of
Potential benefits of
Potential benefits of
Potential benefits of
Potential benefits of
Potential benefits of
Potential benefits of nuclear
nuclear
nuclear
nuclear
nuclear
nuclear
nuclear
nuclear
power
power
power
power
power
power
power
power
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OECD NEA: Nuclear Energy Outlook '08
Managing current and
Managing current and
Managing current and
Managing current and
Managing current and
Managing current and
Managing current and
Managing current and
future challenges
future challenges
future challenges
future challenges
future challenges
future challenges
future challenges
future challenges
Un
Un
Un
Un
Un
Un
Un
Unsafe?
safe?
safe?
safe?
safe?
safe?
safe?
safe?
Actually, safer than
Actually, safer than
Actually, safer than
Actually, safer than
Actually, safer than
Actually, safer than
Actually, safer than
Actually, safer than
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OECD NEA: Nuclear Energy Outlook '08
Actually, safer than
Actually, safer than
Actually, safer than
Actually, safer than
Actually, safer than
Actually, safer than
Actually, safer than
Actually, safer than
base load
base load
base load
base load
base load
base load
base load
base load
alternatives
alternatives
alternatives
alternatives
alternatives
alternatives
alternatives
alternatives
Managing current and
Managing current and
Managing current and
Managing current and
Managing current and
Managing current and
Managing current and
Managing current and
future challenges
future challenges
future challenges
future challenges
future challenges
future challenges
future challenges
future challenges
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OECD NEA: Nuclear Energy Outlook '08
Radwaste?
Radwaste?
Radwaste?
Radwaste?
Radwaste?
Radwaste?
Radwaste?
Radwaste?
Actually, most dispos
Actually, most dispos
Actually, most dispos
Actually, most dispos
Actually, most dispos
Actually, most dispos
Actually, most dispos
Actually, most disposable
able
able
able
able
able
able
ableby 2050
by 2050
by 2050
by 2050
by 2050
by 2050
by 2050
by 2050
Proliferation?
Proliferation?
Proliferation?
Proliferation?
Proliferation?
Proliferation?
Proliferation?
Proliferation?
Managing current and
Managing current and
Managing current and
Managing current and
Managing current and
Managing current and
Managing current and
Managing current and
future challenges
future challenges
future challenges
future challenges
future challenges
future challenges
future challenges
future challenges
17
OECD NEA: Nuclear Energy Outlook '08
NPT largely successful, improved
NPT largely successful, improved
NPT largely successful, improved
NPT largely successful, improved
NPT largely successful, improved
NPT largely successful, improved
NPT largely successful, improved
NPT largely successful, improved
regime under discussion
regime under discussion
regime under discussion
regime under discussion
regime under discussion
regime under discussion
regime under discussion
regime under discussion
Today’sreactorsare
fit forpurposeand could
providefora significantexpansionto2050
1400 reactors in 2050?
1400 reactors in 2050?
1400 reactors in 2050?
1400 reactors in 2050?
1400 reactors in 2050?
1400 reactors in 2050?
1400 reactors in 2050?
1400 reactors in 2050?
Significant
Significant
Significant
Significant
Significant
Significant
Significant
SignificantCO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO2 2222 222alleviation
alleviation
alleviation
alleviation
alleviation
alleviation
alleviation
alleviationnow
now
now
now
now
now
now
now
Tomorrow’sfastreactorscanexpandtheenergy
availablefromuraniumbyupto60 times
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OECD NEA: Nuclear Energy Outlook '08
Vast resources
Vast resources
Vast resources
Vast resources
Vast resources
Vast resources
Vast resources
Vast resourcesof virtually
of virtually
of virtually
of virtually
of virtually
of virtually
of virtually
of virtually
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO2 2222 222- ---- ---free energy
free energy
free energy
free energy
free energy
free energy
free energy
free energy
1400 reactors in 2050?
1400 reactors in 2050?
1400 reactors in 2050?
1400 reactors in 2050?
1400 reactors in 2050?
1400 reactors in 2050?
1400 reactors in 2050?
1400 reactors in 2050?
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OECD NEA: Nuclear Energy Outlook '08
Vast resources
Vast resources
Vast resources
Vast resources
Vast resources
Vast resources
Vast resources
Vast resourcesof virtually
of virtually
of virtually
of virtually
of virtually
of virtually
of virtually
of virtually
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO2 2222 222- ---- ---free energy
free energy
free energy
free energy
free energy
free energy
free energy
free energy
But!…
But!…
But!…
But!…
But!…
But!…
But!…
But!…
Governments have clear responsibilities:
Governments have clear responsibilities:
Governments have clear responsibilities:
Governments have clear responsibilities:
Governments have clear responsibilities:
Governments have clear responsibilities:
Governments have clear responsibilities:
Governments have clear responsibilities:
––eensure maintenance of the skill base
nsure maintenance of the skill base
––mmaintain continued effective safety regulation
aintain continued effective safety regulation
––foster p
foster progress facilities for waste disposal
rogress facilities for waste disposal
––mmaintain and reinforce international non
aintain and reinforce international non--
––mmaintain and reinforce international non
aintain and reinforce international non--
proliferation arrangements
proliferation arrangements
––provide the stability (policy, regulatory, fiscal)
provide the stability (policy, regulatory, fiscal)
investors require
investors require
to enable nuclear energy’s role in future
to enable nuclear energy’s role in future
to enable nuclear energy’s role in future
to enable nuclear energy’s role in future
to enable nuclear energy’s role in future
to enable nuclear energy’s role in future
to enable nuclear energy’s role in future
to enable nuclear energy’s role in future
sustainable energy mixes
sustainable energy mixes
sustainable energy mixes
sustainable energy mixes
sustainable energy mixes
sustainable energy mixes
sustainable energy mixes
sustainable energy mixes
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OECD NEA: Nuclear Energy Outlook '08
TThehefacts are all here…
facts are all here…
Chapter 1. Current Status
Chapter 1. Current Status
Chapter 2. Programmes and Government Policies
Chapter 3. Projections to 2050
Chapter 4. Environmental Impacts of Energy Use and Power Production
Chapter 5. Uranium Resources and Security of Supply
Chapter 6. Providing Electricity at Stable and Affordable Costs
Chapter 7. NuclearSafety and Regulation
Chapter 8. Radioactive Waste Management and Decommissioning
Chapter 9. Non-proliferation and Security
Chapter 10. Legal Frameworks
Chapter 11. Infrasturcture: Industrial, Manpower and R&D Capability
Chapter 12. Stakeholder Engagement
Chapter 13. Advanced Reactors
Chapter 14. Advanced Fuel Cycles
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OECD NEA: Nuclear Energy Outlook '08
