Nuclear Energy in a Climate-constrained World32, India has 25, and South Africa has 25. Top 5...

Nuclear Energy in a Climate-constrained World

Nuclear Energy in a Climate-constrained World

Sonny Kim and Jae EdmondsMay 29, 2008

Global Energy Technology Strategy Program (GTSP) Annual Meeting

2

Acknowledgements

Kathryn McCarthy at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) for supporting our analysis on the role of nuclear energy for addressing climate change.

3

Contents

Motivation for Nuclear PowerModeling the Nuclear Energy SystemReference and Climate Scenario ResultsValue of Nuclear Energy for Addressing Climate ChangeChallenges for the Greater Use of Nuclear EnergyConclusions

4

Motivation for Nuclear Power

Nuclear power does not emit GHGs in the production of electricity.Nuclear power supplies baseload electricity without intermittency.Nuclear power currently supplies 16% of global electricity.Nuclear power is a mature and widely distributed global technology.What is the role of nuclear energy in the global energy system for addressing climate change?

5

Total: 439 Annex I: 375 Non-Annex I: 64375

104

59 5531 17 18 19

9164

20 11 17 2 2 120

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Annex

IUSA

Fran

ceJa

pan

Russia

German

yCan

ada

United

King

dom

Others

Non-A

nnex

I

Korea (

South)

China

India

Brazil

South

Africa

Others

Currently Operating Nuclear Reactors

Annex 1: OECD (less Korea & Mexico), Former Soviet Union & Eastern EuropeNon-Annex I: Rest of the World(www.world-nuclear.org/info/reactors.html)

6

Nuclear Reactors Currently Under Construction

(www.world-nuclear.org/info/reactors.html)


15

7

21 1

2 2

21

76

32

1 1 10

5

10

15

20

25

Annex

IRus

siaJa

pan

Fran

ceFinl

and

Canad

aSlov

akia

Non-A

nnex

IChin

aInd

iaKore

a (Sou

th)Ta

iwan Iran

Argenti

naPak

istan

7

Planned = Approvals, funding or major commitment in place, mostly expected in operation within 8 years, or construction well advanced but suspended indefinitely (www.world-nuclear.org/info/reactors.html).


44

12 11 10

38

49

24

105

2

8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Annex

I

USA

Japa

nRus

siaCan

ada

Others

Non-A

nnex

IChin

a

India

Korea (

South)

Pakist

anOthe

rsPlanned Nuclear Reactors

8


88

25 20 20

4 3

19

130

76

24

9 4 4 211

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Annex

IRus

sia USAUkra

ineCan

ada

Turkey

Others

Non-A

nnex

IChin

aSou

th Afric

aInd

iaBraz

ilTh

ailan

dInd

ones

iaOthe

rsProposed Nuclear Reactors

Proposed = clear intention or proposal but still without firm commitment (www.world-nuclear.org/info/reactors.html).

9

Global Distribution of Nuclear Reactors

Currently Operating: 439 reactors in 30 countriesAnnex I : 375 (85%)Non-Annex I: 64 (15%)

Currently Under Construction, Planned and Proposed: 347 reactors in 35 countries

Annex I : 147 (42%)Non-Annex I: 200 (58%) China has 107 or 31% of the total, Russia has 42 (12%), US has 32, India has 25, and South Africa has 25. Top 5 countries total231.

Potential Total Reactors: 786Annex I : 522 (65%)Non-Annex I: 264 (35%)

10

ObjECTS-MiniCAMNuclear Energy System

Resources:

Fuel Fabrication:

Reactors:

Interim Storage:

Reprocessing:

Waste Disposal:

11

ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION CLIMATE & SEA LEVEL

HUMAN ACTIVITIES ECOSYSTEMS

Atmospheric Chemistry

Ocean Carbon Cycle

Climate

Ocean · temperature

· sea level

Energy System

Other Human Systems

Agriculture, Livestock &

Forestry

Coastal System

Terrestrial Carbon Cycle

Crops & Forestry

Un-managed Eco-system & Animals

Hydrology

The Integrated Assessment Framework

The Integrated Assessment Framework

ObjECTS-MiniCAM EPIC

MAGICC/SCENGEN

12

Global Population & GDP Reference Scenario

Global Population

0123456789

10

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Bill

ions

GDP

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Trill

ions

of 2

005

US

$

Western EuropeUSASoutheast AsiaMiddle EastLatin AmericaKoreaJapanIndiaFormer Soviet UnionEastern EuropeChinaCanadaAustralia_NZAfrica

(Based on US DOE CCSP Scenario)

13

Natural Uranium Resource AssumptionUranium Supply Curve

010

2030

4050

6070

8090

100

25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250Cost (2003$/kg)

Cum

ulat

ive

Ura

nium

Ext

ract

ion

(MTU

)

Redbook

Dilute Phosphate

PPM

Redbook, 2003. Uranium 2003: Resource, Production and Demand, IAEA and OECED/NEA.

14

Reference ScenarioNuclear Energy System

Nuclear ReactorsLegacy Reactors (Gen II)Advanced Light-Water Reactor (Gen III)

Once-Through Fuel CycleDirect Disposal of Spent FuelUnconstrained Waste Disposal with a Fixed Charge

(France,United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, Russia, and others currently reprocess their used fuels.)

15

Nuclear Energy Technology Assumptions

Gen II Gen III Gen III Gen IV Gen IVYear Legacy 2005 2095 2035 2095Burnup (GWd/MTHM) 45 50 50 175 175Enrichment ( % ) 4.08% 4.51% 4.51% 25% 25%Uranium Ore Cost Endogenous Endogenous Endogenous Endogenous EndogenousConversion Cost ($/kgU) 10 10 10Enrichment Cost ($/SWU) 104 104 104Fuel Fabrication Cost ($/kgHM) 240 240 240 1,500 1,500Blanket Fabrication Cost ($/kgHM) 250 250Reprocessing Cost ($/kgHM) 1,000 1,000Interim Storage Cost ($/kgHM) 300 300 300 300 300Waste Disposal Cost ($/kgHM) 548 548 548 200 200

Capital Overnight ($/kW) Legacy 2,300 1,750 2,400 2,400O&M Fixed ($/kW) Legacy 64 64 64 64O&M Variable (mills/kWh) Legacy 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8Efficiency (%) 33% 33% 33% 45% 45%Capacity Factor 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85Lifetime (years) 60 60 60 60 60

Ref: Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis 2007, INL.Note: $ year is 2005

16

Global Primary Energy Consumption& CO2 Emissions

Reference Scenario

Global CO2 Emissions by Fuel

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Bill

ion

Tons

of C

arbo

n

CementNatural GasUnconventional OilCrude OilCoal

Global Primary Energy Consumption

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ/y

r

nuclearbiomassrenewablenatural gasunconventional oilcrude oilcoal

17

Global Electricity Generation &Nuclear Share

Reference Scenario

Global Electricity Generation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ/

yr

biomasssolarwindhydrooilgascoalnuclear (Gen III)nuclear (Gen II)

Number of Nuclear Reactors Worldwide& Share of Generation

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

No.

of N

ucle

ar R

eact

ors

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Shar

e of

Gen

erat

ion

No. of Nuclear Reactors

Share (generation)

(1000 MWe Reactor @ 0.85 CF)

18

CO2 Emissions Path & Resulting Carbon Tax for Stabilizing CO2 Concentrations

100 $/tC = 1.76 c/kWh (24 % above base 7.4 c/kWh)

100 $/tC = 1.76 c/kWh (24 % above base 7.4 c/kWh)

Global CO2 Emissions Paths

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Bill

ion

Tons

of C

arbo

n

Ref450 ppm550 ppm650 ppm750 ppm

Carbon Taxes for Stabilization

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Car

bon

Tax

(200

5 $/

tC)

450 ppm550 ppm650 ppm750 ppm

19

Mix of Global Electricity Generation 550 ppm Scenariowith and without CO2Capture & Storage

Mix of Global Electricity Generation 550 ppm Scenariowith and without CO2Capture & Storage

(With CCS) (Without CCS)Global Electricity Generation - 550 ppm No CCS

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ/

yr


Global Electricity Generation - 550 ppm

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ/

yr

biomasssolarwindhydrooil ccsoiln. gas ccsn. gascoal ccscoalnuclear (Gen III)nuclear (Gen II)


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ/

yr


Reference

20

Number of Nuclear Power Plants & Nuclear Share of Generation

(Global)

(1000 MWe Reactor @ 0.85 CF)

Number of Nuclear Plants

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

No.

of N

ucle

ar R

eact

ors

Ref550 ppm550 ppm - No CCS

Nuclear's Share of Generation

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Nuc

lear

Sha

re


21

Comparison of Global Electricity Generation

(Reference)(550 ppm without Nuclear & CCS)


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ/

yr


Global Electricity Generation - 550 ppm

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ/y

r

biomasssolarwindhydrooilgascoalnuclear (Gen II)

22

Cost of 550 ppm Scenario & Value of Nuclear Technologies

(Global)

(Discounted @ 5% from 2095 to 2005)Value of Nuclear =

(Cost without Nuclear)– (Cost with Nuclear)

Global Discounted Cost (550 ppm Scenario)No Nuclear &

CCS

CCS Only

Nuclear Only With Nuclear & CCS

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Cos

t (T

rilli

on 2

005

US$

)

Global Value of Nuclear (550 ppm Scenario)

Nuclear w/ CCS

Nuclear Only

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Val

ue o

f Nuc

lear

(Tri

llion

200

5 U

S$)

23

Value of Nuclear for a Range of CO2Concentration Stabilization Scenarios

without C

CS

with CCS 750 ppm

650 ppm550 ppm

450 ppm

0123456789

10Va

lue

of N

ucle

ar

(Tril

lion

2005

US$

)

24

Worldwide Distribution of Nuclear Power

Annex 1: OECD (less Korea & Mexico), Former Soviet Union & Eastern EuropeNon-Annex I: Rest of the World

Share of Global Nuclar Electricity GenerationReference Scenario

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ /

yr

Annex I

Non-Annex I

Nuclear Capacity by RegionReference Scenario

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

GW

e

Non-Annex I (Gen III)Non-Annex I (Gen II)Annex I (Gen III)Annex I (Gen II)

Non-Annex I

Annex 1

25

Cumulative Uranium Production

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Cum

ulat

ive

Ura

nium

Pro

duct

ion

(MTU

)

Ref550 ppm550 ppm - No CCSRedbookPhosphate

Availability of Natural Uranium Resource

Redbook Total

Uranium Ore Price

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Ura

nium

Pric

e (2

003

US

$ / k

g U

) Ref550 ppm550 ppm - No CCS

26

Global Nuclear Electricity GenerationAlternative Uranium Supply Curves

(Schneider and Sailor 2008. “Long Term Uranium Supply Estimates.”)

Global Nuclear Electricity Generation

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ/y

r

OptimisticConservativePPMFCCCG(1)Pure KCR

Alternative Uranium Supply Curve

0102030405060708090

100

25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250Cost (2003$/kg)

Cum

ulat

ive

Ura

nium

Ex

trac

tion

(MM

T)

OptimisticConservativePPMFCCCG(1)Pure KCR

27

Global Spent Fuel Accumulation

(Once-thru Fuel Cycle)

31 – 53 Yucca Mtns. Globally (each repository at 70,000 tons legislated capacity)4 – 7 Yucca Mtns. Globally (each repository at 570,000* tons maximum physical capacity)* EPRI 2006

Global Spent Fuel Accumulatiion

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Mill

ion

MTH

M


28

High Nuclear Cost Case

Nuclear power continues to have significant value under high cost case.

Number of Nuclear Plants

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

No.

of N

ucle

ar R

eact

ors

Ref

Gen III High Cost

Gen III High Cost - 550

Nuclear Capital Costs

2020: 3,000 $/KWe

2095: 2,300 $/KWeGlobal Value of Nuclear (550 ppm Scenario)

Nuclear(Ref Cost)

Nuclear (High Cost)

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

Valu

e of

Nuc

lear

(Tril

lion

2005

US$

)

29

Conclusions

Nuclear energy has the potential to compete aggressively in the power market to provide for a growing worldwide demand while helping to manage the cost of addressing climate change.The value of maintaining a nuclear option to address climate change is denominated in Trillions of dollars (US).

The tighter the climate constraint, the higher the value of nuclear power (550 ppm: 1.3 tril$, 450 ppm: 9.8 tril$).Nuclear’s value is greater with fewer carbon free technology options. CCS is an important competing technology (550 ppm w/ CCS: 0.9 tril$, 550 ppm w/o CCS: 1.3 tril$).

The response to climate change could precipitate a rapid and large scale global deployment of nuclear power.

2,500 to 6,000 reactors could potentially be deployed by the end of the century depending on the climate constraint and technology competition.Nuclear power becomes increasingly a global and ever more widelydistributed technology under climate change.Significant increases in the consumption of natural uranium and production of nuclear waste are expected.

Comparison of Life-Cycle Emissions

Tons of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent per Gigawatt-Hour1,041

622

46 39 18 17 15 14

Coal Natural Gas Biomass Solar PV Hydro Nuclear Geothermal Wind

Figure from Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI)Source: "Life-Cycle Assessment of Electricity Generation Systems and Applications for Climate Change Policy Analysis," Paul J. Meier, University of Wisconsin-Madison, August 2002.

31

Energy Technology Cost AssumptionsTechnology 2020 2050 2095

*Solar 141 97 71*Wind: Modeled as supply curves of regional on-shore and off-shore resources.

Pulverized Coal 31 30 29Coal (IGCC) 33 31 29Gas Turbine 18 17 17Gas (CC) 14 13 12Oil Turbine 18 17 17Oil (IGCC) 30 28 26Biomass 14 14 13Biomass (IGCC) 15 14 14

Pulverized Coal 0.41 0.42 0.44Coal (IGCC) 0.49 0.5 0.5Gas Turbine 0.4 0.41 0.43Gas (CC) 0.57 0.65 0.7Oil Turbine 0.4 0.41 0.43Oil (IGCC) 0.49 0.5 0.5Biomass 0.4 0.41 0.43Biomass (IGCC) 0.48 0.49 0.49*Reserve capacity and ancillary power are required for intermittent power technologies.Costs for solar electricity do not include these costs.

Electricity Cost (2000$/MWhr)

Capital & O&M Costs (2000$/MWhr)

Efficiency

32

CO2 Capture and Storage Technology Cost Assumptions

Technology 2020 2050 2095

Coal 0.63 0.49 0.49Gas 1.23 1.09 1.09Oil 0.89 0.79 0.79

Coal 0.03 0.028 0.028Gas 0.083 0.078 0.078Oil 0.06 0.056 0.056

Carbon Capture Energy Requirement by Fuel (kWh/kgC)

Additional Non-energy Cost for Carbon Capture (2000$/kgC)

Nuclear Energy in a Climate-constrained World32, India has 25, and South Africa has 25. Top 5...

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