NTHMP Maritime Guidance Project

KEVIN MILLER and YVETTE LADUKE CA Governor’s Office of Emergency Services

Topics

• Purpose – Provide guidance • Outline

– Table of Contents – Website

• Audience(s) • Benefits • Key Question list • NTHMP Work Group Members • Project Schedule – Work Plan (Conf Calls) • Next Steps

Brief Task Description: The California Tsunami Program will lead and coordinate with our NTHMP partners to complete the draft for Maritime communities. • The mapping and modeling portion of the guidance is complete • The sections on preparedness and response planning are partially complete, • Mitigation and recovery planning sections still need significant work. • California partners have met to develop an implementation plan/outline Next Steps: • California will first work with NTHMP partners to gather ideas and products to be

included. • Local/State/Federal maritime partners will also be consulted to make sure the

guidance matches their needs. • A draft guidance document will be completed and then reviewed by the

subcommittees, with a possible vote by the Coordinating Committee to accept as an NTHMP product.

Goal: draft Maritime Guidance document for the NTHMP and its member partners

Maritime Guidance: Best Practices for Tsunami Hazard Analysis, Planning, and Preparedness

Contents Purpose of Maritime Planning and Preparedness Guidelines Intended Audience Objective and Scope of the Guidelines are: Part 1: Guidance for Tsunami Hazard Analysis, Modeling, and Mapping 1.1 Use of Numerical Tsunami Models and Digital Elevation Models/Grids 1.2 Maritime Tsunami Hazard Preparedness Products Product 1: Identification of Areas of Past Damage and Strong Currents Product 2: Mapping Current Velocities and Relationship to Damage Product 3: Identification of Areas of Potentially Large Water Fluctuation Product 4: Identification of Areas of Potential Bores, Seiches, and Amplified Waves Product 5: Identification of Timeframe for Damaging Currents Product 6: Identification of Safe Minimum Offshore Depth Other Products 1.3 Basic Guidance on Design of Products Part 2: Guidance for Tsunami Response, Preparedness, and Education 2.1 General Maritime Public Guidance 2.3 Public Education Strategies (ADDED) 2.2 Harbor-Specific Maritime Planning Guidance 2-Level Tsunami Response Guidance: Multi-Level Tsunami Response Guidance (Playbooks): Part 3: Guidance for Tsunami Mitigation and Recovery Planning 3.1 Mitigation Planning Strategies 3.2 Recovery Planning Strategies Resources – Maritime References, Products, and Entities

MES working on streamlining and improving “General Maritime Guidance”

MES will develop “Preparedness and Education…” section

MES work with FEMA to develop guidance for LHMP and funding

MES may wait for mitigation and recovery work in CA to be completed

MES reviewed offshore guidance portion

Black was completed by MMS Green started by MMS and is being enhanced/completed by MES BLUE will do later in 2017

Outline of NTHMP Guidance (paper and future website)

Guidance Organization: Part 1 Hazard Assessment Part 2 Preparedness Part 3 Response Planning Part 4 Response Exercise Part 5 Outreach and Education Part 6 Mitigation Planning Part 7 Recovery Planning Additional Resources/Links/etc.

New Website

• 1 page for recreational boaters • 1 page for medium-size vessels (fishing) • 1 page for large ships (cruise, military, shipping)

– Who regulates – Who are key contacts – What are key safety / planning considerations unique to

this group? – What do they need from govt.?

• Link with existing resources and websites – (e.g. Oregon, CREW, California, Hawaii)

Audiences Served • State / Territory

– Coordination • Local Jurisdictions

– Advise actions by and Harbor Authorities • Maritime Community (Ultimate Beneficiary)

– Recreational Boaters – Commercial Fishers – Large Vessels

o Military o Cruise o Shipping

Guidance Benefits

• For State / Local for Emergency Managers to plan / respond – This is who to reach out to (cruise, USCG, etc.) – This is what you talk about with each group

• Gaps – Ask local/ USCG what they will do during a tsunami – What will they do and not do? – List of what actions they will take – Authority vs. Action Plan

Define key questions for each topic area Example: Response Coordination & Communications • List of questions of who has jurisdictional responsibility:

– Who receives Alert & Warning at Harbor? – Who has responsibility for disseminating message? – Who will notify live-aboards? – What will USCG do with its staff and assets (internal)? – What role will USCG take in response (external)? – Who makes determination about response? For saying what

Plan/Phase gets implemented? (at the OA level, at the city level, at the State level)

– Who shuts down the water? (MOTEMS?) – Are there existing plans that tsunami response can be incorporated

into/with? • Hurricane • USCG (ACP) • Storms (e.g. King Tide)

Harbor and Water Authorities

• Harbor / Marina: Harbormaster, Harbor Patrol/Police

• City / County • State Agency: State Parks (access),

Boating & Waterways (recreational safety), State Lands (regulates marine oil terminals), Fish & Wildlife

• Federal Agencies: USCG, US Navy, NWS, FEMA – USCG = Captain of the Port (has the authority

to shut down waterways)

NTHMP Working Group Members + Local Partnerships/Experts TBD through this process

• California: Cal OES (Miller, LaDuke), CGS (Wilson) +USCG (Dixon), NWS (Garcia, Nicolini), SF (Schaffer)

• Alaska: Belanger • Oregon: Allan, Rizzo • Washington: Dixon, Yemm • Hawaii: Richards, Cheng • NTWC/PTWC: Waddell, Preller • FEMA: Biasco

Schedule / Work Plan

Series of calls: • Feb 15 – 28, 2019 timeframe

– Discuss Survey and Project Outline, – Discuss how to obtain & incorporate

state/territory info – Begin draft

• March 2019 – Check in – (email reminder; no call)

• April 2019 – Review Draft – Coordinate relevant info from in-state

stakeholders • May 2019 – Review Draft • June 2019 – Review Draft • August 2019 - Draft Complete for CC

Next Steps

• Survey of Questions for NTHMP Members prior to first call

• Schedule Conference Call • Continue brainstorming/confirm what

assignments need to happen to develop the Guidance

• Develop Sections • Complete by August 2019

Warning / Advisory Scenario-specific

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2-Level Response Guidance (Alert-Level Response)

Multiple-Level Response Guidance (Playbook Response)

Type of maritime community

Small open-coast harbors or harbors within rivers or bays which have not experienced significant tsunami damage in the past

Harbors and ports which have had damage in past events, especially during both Advisory and Warning level events

Basis for response planning

Response for either Advisory level events or Warning level events

Response specific to multiple scenarios between the Advisory and Warning level range

Scenario modeling required

Minimal modeling required, velocity and flow depth for one or two maximum considered distant source scenario

More comprehensive modeling is required for a variety of distant tsunami sources with the near-shore forecast peak wave amplitude range of 0.3m to 1.5m

Relative cost* Minor cost for modeling single maximum scenario

Moderate cost for modeling multiple scenarios

Relative accuracy Moderate accuracy for capturing tsunami conditions

Higher accuracy by selecting response plan with more specific information about severity and location of damaging currents

Decision making and response

Simplified approach with only two choices predetermined by the tsunami alert level

Advanced approach with a number of response choices based on forecast peak wave amplitude from the Warning Center

Real-time decision making assistance from state/NWS

Assistance to select the response level is not required

Assistance to select the response level is recommended; MINIMUM scenario plan may be recommended by state or NWS IDSS

Determining Appropriate Maritime Planning and Response Guidance