NRCC Polling Memo: Rep. John Katko vs. Eric Kingson
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121 State Street HarperPolling.com [email protected] Harrisburg, PA 17101 TO: National Republican Congressional Committee FROM: Brock McCleary, President Date: September 21, 2015 RE: Key Poll Findings –New York Congressional District 24 Survey Electoral Environment Almost two-thirds of voters in New York’s 24 th Congressional District say things in the country are on the wrong track (27% right direction, 64% wrong track). A Republican candidate and a Democratic candidate are tied on the generic ballot for Congress (40-40%, 8% someone else, 12% not sure). The majority of voters in the district have an unfavorable view of Hillary Clinton (45% favorable, 51% unfavorable). Her image is weaker among Independents (34%/58%). Candidate Images Republican incumbent John Katko is viewed favorably by a majority of voters in the district (55% favorable, 22% unfavorable). His image demonstrates considerable strength among Independents (52%/23%) and Moderates (59%/17%). Katko is also viewed positively by a majority of both women (56%/19%) and men (54%/24%). Democratic challenger Eric Kingson is unknown to 76% of the electorate (9%/15%). Congressional Ballot Test Q: If the election for Congress were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for: Republican John Katko or Democrat Eric Kingson? NY-24 Ballot Test % of Vote John Katko 51% Eric Kingson 28% Undecided 21% Katko Job Approval Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Katko is handling his job as Congressman? Katko Job Approval % Strongly approve 25% Somewhat approve 34% Somewhat disapprove 12% Strongly disapprove 6% Not sure 22% Majorities of Independents (58% approve, 20% disapprove) and Moderates (59%/23%) also approve of Katko’s job performance. Katko Reelect A 42% plurality of voters feels that John Katko “has done enough to deserve reelection” (27% someone new). Both women (39%/25%) and men (46%/29%) believe Katko deserves reelection. Katko Seen-Read-Heard and Information Flow Almost half of the electorate has seen, read or heard something recently about John Katko (46%) and 63% say what they have heard gave them a more favorable opinion of him. Katko’s information flow is a strong net positive among Independents (51%/14%) and Moderates (60%/21%).
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The National Republican Congressional Committee released a poll conducted by Harper Polling which shows U.S. Rep. John Katko with a large lead over Democratic challenger Eric Kingson.
Transcript of NRCC Polling Memo: Rep. John Katko vs. Eric Kingson
121 State Street HarperPolling.com [email protected] Harrisburg, PA 17101
TO: National Republican Congressional Committee FROM: Brock McCleary, President Date: September 21, 2015 RE: Key Poll Findings –New York Congressional District 24 Survey Electoral Environment Almost two-thirds of voters in New York’s 24th Congressional District say things in the country are on the wrong track (27% right direction, 64% wrong track). A Republican candidate and a Democratic candidate are tied on the generic ballot for Congress (40-40%, 8% someone else, 12% not sure). The majority of voters in the district have an unfavorable view of Hillary Clinton (45% favorable, 51% unfavorable). Her image is weaker among Independents (34%/58%). Candidate Images Republican incumbent John Katko is viewed favorably by a majority of voters in the district (55% favorable, 22% unfavorable). His image demonstrates considerable strength among Independents (52%/23%) and Moderates (59%/17%). Katko is also viewed positively by a majority of both women (56%/19%) and men (54%/24%). Democratic challenger Eric Kingson is unknown to 76% of the electorate (9%/15%). Congressional Ballot Test Q: If the election for Congress were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for: Republican John Katko or Democrat Eric Kingson?
NY-24 Ballot Test % of Vote
John Katko 51%
Eric Kingson 28%
Undecided 21%
Katko Job Approval Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Katko is handling his job as Congressman?
Katko Job Approval %
Strongly approve 25%
Somewhat approve 34%
Somewhat disapprove 12%
Strongly disapprove 6%
Not sure 22%
Majorities of Independents (58% approve, 20% disapprove) and Moderates (59%/23%) also approve of Katko’s job performance. Katko Reelect A 42% plurality of voters feels that John Katko “has done enough to deserve reelection” (27% someone new). Both women (39%/25%) and men (46%/29%) believe Katko deserves reelection. Katko Seen-Read-Heard and Information Flow Almost half of the electorate has seen, read or heard something recently about John Katko (46%) and 63% say what they have heard gave them a more favorable opinion of him. Katko’s information flow is a strong net positive among Independents (51%/14%) and Moderates (60%/21%).
METHODOLOGY: The sample size for the survey is 456 likely voters in New York Congressional District 24 and the margin of error is +/-4.55%. Cell phone interviews were conducted using live operators and land line interviews were conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR). The survey was conducted September 12-16, 2015 by Harper Polling. The demographic profile of the survey sample is as follows: Female 53%, Male 47%; Republican 33%, Conservative 7%, Democrat 35%, Working families 3%, Independent/Other Party 22%; White 81%, Something else 19%. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.
