NPCC Multi-Area Probabilistic Reliability Assessments...

NPCC Multi-Area Probabilistic Reliability yAssessments

Comparison of 2010/2011 Results

NERC Loss-of-Load Expectation Working GroupNovember 7-8 2011November 7 8, 2011

November 7-8, 2011 NERC LOLE Working Group 1

Multi-Area Probabilistic Reliability Assessments

NPCC Probabilistic Analyses

Representation

Long Range Adequacy Overview

NERC Probabilistic Assessment Trial



NPCC

• One millionsquare miles

• 56 million people

• 45% US5% US55% Canadian

• Represents 70%• Represents 70%of Canadian Load

November 7-8, 2011 3NERC LOLE Working Group


Representation

New York New Englandg Maritimes QuebecQ Ontario Neighboring RegionsNeighboring Regions



Assumptions Load Representation Load Forecast Uncertainty Load Shape Unit Availability Transfer limits Operating Procedures Assistance Priorityy Neighboring Regions


NPCC Long Range Adequacy Overview

Load Shape

For the past several years, the NPCC has been using different loadshapes for the different seasonal assessments. The 2002 loadshape is considered to be representative of a reasonable expectedshape is considered to be representative of a reasonable expectedcoincidence of area load for the summer assessments. Likewise,the 2003 – 2004 load shape has been used for the winter

Th l i f h l d h fi dassessments. The selection of these load shapes was confirmedearlier this year based on a review of the weather characteristicsand corresponding loads of the years from 2002 through 2008.



Load Shapep

For this study that focuses on the entire year rather than asingle season, NPCC developed a composite load shape fromsingle season, NPCC developed a composite load shape fromthe historical hourly loads for 2002, 2003, and 2004. Januarythrough March of the composite shape was based on the datafor January through March of 2004 The months of Aprilfor January through March of 2004. The months of Aprilthrough September were based on those months for 2002,and October through December was based on the 2003 data.


)

Load Shape


Load Shape

Before the composite load model was developed by combining the various pieces the hourly loads for 2003 and 2004 were the various pieces, the hourly loads for 2003 and 2004 were adjusted by the ratios of their annual energy to the annual energy for 2002. This adjustment removed from the 2003 and 2004 l d th l d th th t h d d f 2002 2004 loads the load growth that had occurred from 2002, so as to create a more consistent load shape throughout the year.

The resulting load shape was then adjusted through the study period to match the monthly or annual peak and energy forecasts.


NPCC Transfer Limits – CP-8 2011-2015 Long-Range Adequacy Overview(Assumed Ratings - MW)325

375325

375

95 S

12,100

300222200

2,000

5,200

1,200 S0 W

MANIT

90

65 S85 W

95 S110 W

NW

NE

OttawaOttawa 1,500Total Ontario

4,600 In5,550 Out-S

330 S342 W

262 S274 W

QuebecJB

ND

Chur.

MANMAN

14,1000

NSPEI

NBM

900 S1 000 W

485 S 520 W

200

300

1,900

200NM

124 350West

Niagara

East800

420 S470 W

5,550 Out S6,100 Out-W

9999

Ontario Maritimes

Mtl

QueCent.

0

17,700

100

1,200NBM

NB1,850 S2,300 W

1,817 S1,887 W

1,397 S 1,417 W

1,580 S1,860 W

D

1,000 W

2501,400

550

1,000

1,220

1,660 1,000

1,500BHE

140 NewY k

300

, ,

CdrsCdrs

167

1

A

C

D

FG

J

250150

800600

800500

W-

CMAMRO- USMRO- US

VT0

550 800

York

2007,500

1,000

1,870 S2,160 W

J

K800

428

800RFC-OTH CT

MA

330

WestNew

200

7,500

RFC + NY1NY1330

,

1,500

2,000

1,500

2,000

J2J2

400

430

Total NY-NE(Excludes

CSC)

1,000 5006,500

5,500NOR

Cent. East

5,700

8,400

300

NewEngland

810

1,015

7,500

1,400 S1,875 W

1,400 S1,875 W

660

PJM-SW

3,000

3,000

1,000

)

PJM-RTO

Transfer Limits – NPCC 2011 Long Range Adequacy Overview(Assumed Ratings - MW)

339

2,000

5,200MANIT

357339

65 S85 W

95 S110 W

NE330 S342 W

262 S274 W

QuebecJB

Chur.

MANPEI

900 S1,000 W

12,900

150

222

1,900

1,200 S0 W

124

350

90 NW

West

Ottawa

East800

1,923 S1,998 W

Total Ontario4,800 In

5,200 In (01/13)5,550 Out-S6,100 Out-W Ontario

MaritimesND

QueCent.

15,050

22,290

NS

NB

1,397 S 1,417 W

685 S720 W1,200

550

700 *

1,220 S1,300 S (01/13)

1,470 W1,750 W (01/13)

1,200

1 500

NMNiagara

East420 S470 W

9,999Mtl22,290

100

300

2,723 S2,798 W

1,817 S1,887 W

Cdrs

1

1,580 S1,640 S (01/13)

1,860 W1,800 W (01/13)

PRELIMINARY

A C

D

FG

2261,400

150

1,660 S1,700 S (01/13)

1,980 W2,305 W (01/13)

1,500

800600

1 000

BHE

CMAMRO- US

140

VT0

NewYork

167

1,840 S2,080 S (01/13)

PRELIMINARY

JK 800

800

428

1,000

800RFC-OTH CT

W-MA

550800 York

200

200

7 500

RFC +7,500

1,000

2,000

1 500

J2

400

, ( )1,980 W

2,400 W (01/13)

330

Total NY NE

428

1,000

5006,500

5,500NOR

West

C t

5,700 300

NewEngland

810

8,000

1,400 S1,875 W

1,400 S1,875 W

660

PJM-

7,500

3,000

1,500

1,000

430660

(05/13)


Total NY-NE(Excludes CSC)

,Cent.

East8,400

PJM-RTO

810

1,015

JSW3,000

* The actual transfer capability is 1,000 MW. However, it was modeled as 700 MW to reflect limitations imposed by internal New England constraints that are currently under review by ISO New England.

NPCC 2010 Long Range Adequacy Overview

Hourly LOLE - Expected Load0.12

0.08

0.10

ear

0.04

0.06

hour

s/ye

0.00

0.02

Q MT NE NY ON PJM- RFC- RFC MRO-Q MT NE NY ON PJM-RTO

RFC-OTH

RFC MRO-US

Area

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

November 7-8, 2011 11

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

NERC LOLE Working Group


0.30

Hourly LOLE - Expected Load

0.20

0.25

ar PRELIMINARY

0.10

0.15

hour

s/ye PRELIMINARY

0.00

0.05

QB MT NE NY ON PJM-RTO RFC-OTH RFC MRO-US

Area

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016



LOEE - Expected Load0.50

ad

0.30

0.40

on M

Wh

Loa

0.20

EU

E / M

illio

0.00

0.10

Q MT NE NY ON PJM- RFC- RFC MRO-

MW

h E

Q MT NE NY ON PJM-RTO

RFC-OTH

RFC MRO-US

Area

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

November 7-8, 2011 13

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

NERC LOLE Working Group


1 60

1.80

oad

LOEE - Expected Load

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

Mill

ion

MW

h Lo

PRELIMINARY

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

MW

h EU

E / M

0.00

0.20


Area

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016



Daily LOLE - Expected Load0.030

0.020

0.025

ear

0.010

0.015

days

/ye

0.000

0.005

Q MT NE NY ON PJM- RFC- RFC MRO-QRTO OTH US

Area

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015



0 10

Daily LOLE - Expected Load

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.10

ar PRELIMINARY

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

days

/yea

0.00

0.01

0.02


Area

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016



0.1

Area LOLE – Expected Load

0.075Q

MT

NE

0 025

0.05 NE

NY

ON

0

0.025

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5

2001

200220

03

2004

2005

200620

07

2008

200920

10

2011

2012

201320

14

2015



Area LOLE – Expected Load

Q

MTPRELIMINARYNE

NY

ON


NPCC Multi-Area Probabilistic Reliability Assessments...

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