Now Next Beyond v2: Making Sense of Change
Transcript of Now Next Beyond v2: Making Sense of Change
Now, Next, BeyondVersion #2
January 2015
Mark Holden, Head of Futures
@holdenmw
Why have we done this?
To make practical sense of change:
• Understand it.
• Prioritise based on likely impact to marketing & communication.
• Technology is a driver, but it’s not all about technology.
• The ‘future’ is not static.
This is not futurology – the next wave is already here
Internet: 50 years Mobile: 30 years Social: 10 years
Even if it’s in front of us, change can happen quickly
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PC (14
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iPod
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Faceb
ook
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1020304050607080
Technology adoption rates over the last 100 years (reaching 25% adoption)
In the last year…
Now, Next, Beyond
Now
Next 12 months
Critical now
Next
Next 24 months
A rising tide
Beyond
Within 5 years
Clouds on the horizon
Monitor, experiment, planPrepareAct now
Impact
Now, Next, Beyond
Rise of connected TVMarketing personalisation
Integrated commerce
The mobile majorityContent as mediaMultidevice world
Digitisation of mediaData driving media
Co-creation & customisationInternet of useful things
Predictive designMoney 2.0
Attention deficitThe generation gap
Privacy value exchange
Social goes mobileThe power of the ‘1st screen’
Modern familiesWhat recovery?
TV - generational tipping pointMurdered by modernityDemographic reckoning
Confronting climate change
The marketing-media systemNew paths to growth
The real value of socialMeaningful marketingExplicit and implicit
Now Next Beyond
Tech
Behaviour
Practice
Now
TECHNOLOGY
THE MOBILE MAJORITY
The mobile majority
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40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Smartphone
Tablet
Source: Arena Media forecast (aggregate of penetration data)
August 2015 – the point at which smartphones exceed UK broadband penetration
The OS platform ‘war’ is arguably over
AndroidiOSWindowsOther
September 2013 September 2014
Source: Kantar Worldpanel ComTech September 2014
Whilst the hardware sector is commoditising
We’re moving beyond the ‘landgrab’ into brand services
‘Landgrab’ Enhance products & services
Mobile-friendly touchpoints
Apps
Media integration
Commerce New services
App-like experiences
Location
Mobile CRM
We’re moving beyond the ‘landgrab’ into brand services
‘Landgrab’ Enhance products & services
The big change is how we use (and design) apps
Source: Nielsen July 2014; IPA Touchpoints 5
’We’re reaching an app ‘threshold Two thirds of mobile time is still spent in apps
App-like experiences are likely to embedded more seamlessly into the OS experience
Source: Nielsen July 2014; IPA Touchpoints 5
App experiences directly from notifications’ Card-based design
MULTI-DEVICEWORLD
Multi-device world
Every household in the UK has an average of 4 connected devices:
83% have 2 device or more 66% have 3 devices or more
46% have 4 devices or more 29% have 5 devices or more
1 2 1 2
2
1
Source: IPA Touchpoints 5 2014*Internet connected devices: Internet-enabled TV, fixed PC, laptop, tablet, mobile phone, games console
Device* type in numbers
The PC remains the workhorse for e-commerce
Source: Global Web Index Q2 2014
But all devices have an influencing role to play in user journeys to varying degrees
But all devices have an influencing role to play in user journeys to varying degrees
However, there’s a post-PC world on the horizon
Source: Ofcom Children’s and Parent’s Media Usage and Attitudes Report 2014
Getting equipped for the post-PC world
Universal analytics
Responsive
Design forcomparative advantage
Tablet isn’t an
afterthought
CONTENTAS
MEDIA
Content as media
We’ve seen an acceleration of ‘content as advertising’ in the last year
A fast widening of ‘native’ platforms
Direct Response
Brand
Rich media
Editorial
Content is now the ad ‘substance’ of many digital platforms
5 key developments
Partnerships
Contentdistribution
Platforminvestment
Influencers
Power ofvideo
This requires a shift in emphasis
‘Let’s make…
- Social media stories- Articles- A blog- How-to videos- A programme- A game- Photography- An experience- A stunt video- A product guide- A documentary- A book- With influencers etc.
‘Let’s make some content!’
We need to get specific
vs.
And make choices: why and what we produce
HMG Content Lens
Topics
Tone of voice
Brand platform
Monday 10th November Monday 17th NovemberWednesday 26th November REACTIVE
Idea Idea Idea Idea
How it works How it works How it works How it works
Content pillar Content pillar Content pillar Content pillar
SEO integration SEO integration SEO integration SEO integration
Destination platforms Destination platforms Destination platforms Destination platforms
KPI's KPI's KPI's KPI's
Distribution Distribution Distribution Distribution
Content planning & scheduling
Content can work
62% want to see content directly from their favourite brands
27% want to see branded articles on important issues
90% of consumers find content useful
78% believe brands providing custom content are interested in building good relationships with
them
Source: CMO Council – The Content ROI Centre 2014
It requires a good framework for measuring ROI
Awareness Purchase
Emotional
Rational
Entertaine.g. interactions, sentiment, dwell time
Inspiree.g. search uplift, participation
Educatee.g. purchase intent, brand consideration, CRO
Convincee.g. sales, leads, recommendations, SEO
It requires a good framework for measuring ROI
Awareness Purchase
Emotional
Rational
Entertaine.g. interactions, sentiment, dwell time
Inspiree.g. search uplift, participation,
Educatee.g. purchase intent, brand positioning
Convincee.g. sales, leads, recommendations, SEO
DIGITISATIONOF
MEDIA
Digitisation of media
Sources: Posterscope 2013; Future Source Consulting; BBC News; Ofcom Communications Market Report 2014
59% of UK digital inventory to be traded programmatically by 2017
196,000 digital outdoor screens in the UK; only 4% of ads on them make use
of live content
Programmatic extending to ‘traditional’ media
Digitisation of media
Sources: Posterscope 2013; Future Source Consulting; BBC News; Ofcom Communications Market Report 2014
The World Cup saw more people sharing in real-time than any other
event in history
Dynamic creative is possible across all media types now
Smart TV’s account for 45% of all new TV sales
Digital is not a ‘channel’
It’s not just about campaigns, it’s about service design too
DATA DRIVINGMEDIA
Data capabilities are developing at pace
1st party 2nd party 3rd party
Understanding & managing experiences with one view of the
customer
Fusing customer datasets to fuel new targeting strategies
Enrich insight and targeting with supplementary data
BEHAVIOUR
SOCIAL GOES
MOBILE
Social goes mobile
Facebook60%
Youtube36%
Twitter34%
Instragram20%
Google+18%
Active usage 16-30’s in the UK
16-24’s
Instant messaging platforms are accelerating this
Facebook Messenger
Kakao Talk
Kik Messenger
Line
Skype
Snapchat
Vibe
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Facebook Messenger
Kakao Talk
Kik Messenger
Line
Skype
Snapchat
Viber
WeCha
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Everyone
IM is set to overtake social networking on mobile
The UK’s major players are not all brand-friendly…yet
But there are opportunities to experiment now
Tactical messages Brand stickers Customer service Superfan IM groups
Social on mobile creates new opportunities
Reactive moments More seamless UGC Impulse buying
POWER OF THE 1ST
SCREEN
Power of the ‘1st screen’
76%24%
MeshingStacking
*Millward Brown Ad Reaction 2014; 15-44 multiscreen users
Most dual-screening is unconnected to what’s happening on screen
*Millward Brown Ad Reaction 2014; 15-44 multiscreen users
Though TV clearly does drive social media conversation
Source: Kantar, A year in the life of TV & Twitter in the UK, 2014
And may even help to make programming a little more popular
Source: Kantar, A year in the life of TV & Twitter in the UK, 2014
Even infamous examples struggle to achieve the reach that broadcast ads do
15,885 retweets
6,483 favourites
20,000 likes
108m watched
5.1m tweeted
44,500 ‘engaged’
0.008% of active tweeters
A team of 13
Big TV events are creating a 2nd screen scrum
There are ways to design 2nd screen experiences that scale
Partners Amplified content
There are ways to design 2nd screen experiences that scale
Enhanced experiences Be as good as the 1st screen
MODERN FAMILIES
The modern family unit is in flux
Source: Labour Force Survey - Office for National Statistics
Fewer people getting married Women having kids later
New kinds of household structures emerging
Source: Brand Futures Family of the Future 2014
Parenting Children's education Clothing for children Buying a vehicle Parenting Children's education Clothing for children Buying a vehicleMale Female
18% 16% 16%
45%
27% 25%
70%
12%
74% 76%
32%
48%
71% 73%
27%
64%
I have final/primary say Share decision-making equally
Families ≠ mums
Source: http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/global-trends-survey-gender-divide-tables.pdf
More brands are representing (and celebrating) diversity
Some are even making it their campaign idea
WHAT RECOVERY?
Consumer confidence remains negative despite the recovery
Disposable income just isn’t what it used to be
1/3rd of the UK workforce are part-time (the highest since 1992)
Source: Manpower Quarterly Jobs Survey; Institute for Public Policy Research August 2014; Office for National Statistics
Youth unemployment still high at 18%
Earnings < inflation from 2008 - 2013
Something Aldi and Lidl have very cleverly exploited
Trading down and value-shopping behaviours are deeply ingrained
Source: Mintel The Post-Recession Consumer 2014
Creating both challenge & opportunity
Source: Mintel The Post-Recession Consumer 2014
Switched-on consumers
Unprecedented access to comparison
information
Intense brand competition
+ +
GroceriesMid-range carsMusic industryDVD’sAlcohol at homeHigh street travel‘Traditional’ bankingPremium-casual fashion
Property aggregatorsValue retail
Consumer techFast food
Coffee shopsGamingCinema
TV-viewingFilm-streaming
Fast fashion
PRACTICE
THE REAL VALUE OF
SOCIAL
Source: Social Flow August 2014
‘Organic social’ is in decline on Facebook and Twitter
‘Organic social’ is in decline
Source: Convince and Convert March 2014
Social media platforms have changed: they are very different entities now
Analytics, advertising & identity Developer platformConsumer tech
The good news: we have more viable choices than ever
It’s clear that social doesn’t build brands on its own – but can reinforce brand equity
Source: Peter Field / WARC ‘Seriously Social’ 2014
In many ways we need to get back to fundamentals
Source: Peter Field / WARC ‘Seriously Social’ 2014
MEANINGFUL MARKETING
People expect brands to tangibly enhance their lives
Today’s paradigm
Most people would not care if 73% of brands disappeared
Less than 20% of brands notably improve our quality of life
Source: HMG Meaningful Brands 2014
There are opportunities to make a difference
Brands work hard at improving our quality of life and well-being
% AGREE 2013
I generally trust brands
They communicate honestly about their commitments and promises
Brands can play a role in improving my quality of life and well-being
40%
32%
46%
53%
24%
32%
49%
20%
Source: HMG Meaningful Brands 2014
And being meaningful is commercially beneficial
HM MEANINGFUL BRANDS Index’13
STOXX 1800 FTSE4 Good Indexx 120% x 175%
MB Index considers top 25 meaningful global brands (from companies operating in the stock market)
Source: HMG Meaningful Brands 2013 – based on top 25 meaningful brands globally
Being meaningful involves driving a blend of benefits for end users
Placed fairly in the market Makes a difference to my life Makes a difference to society
Listens & caresGood quality
Fair priceInnovative products
Category leader
Emotional (happier, express identity)Organisational (make life easier)
Financial (savings)Intellectual (ideas/skills, smart)
Physical (health, fitter)Social (connecting)
Natural (reuse, recycle)
Gov & Ethics (ethical, transparent, sustainability leader)
Environment (enabler)Economy (local economy / jobs)Community (socially committed)
Workplace (employees)
Getting the blend right can create meaningful differentiation
Source: HMG Meaningful Brands 2013. Scores derived from structured equation modelling and consumer responses
Importance in driving meaningfulness in finance (max 1)
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EXPLICIT AND IMPLICIT
Decision-making is driven by the interplay between explicit and implicit processing
Source: Admap; Researching implicit memory: Get to the truth; 2013
Which has a number of key implications for marketing planning
‘Emotional’ and ‘rational’ are not mutually exclusive
Blending motivational and rational drivers is most effective
Different channels have a natural skew on the cognitive spectrum
‘Emotion’ needs to be focused – connecting with category motivations
Communications should be designed with the right blend of ‘implicit’ and ‘explicit’ drivers in mind
Source: Innerscope; Dr Carl Marci: How to create better connections by understanding the brain
This reinforces brand-response as a best practice model for marketing
Source: IPA Databank; The Long & Short Of It: Balancing Short-term and Long-term Marketing Strategies
And leads to a new insight toolkit which examines customer intent against behaviour
Perceptual insight Behavioural insight+
Industry surveys
Segmentation
Focus groups & interviews
Brand tracking Implicit reaction testing
Passive data
Pre-testing
Propensity modelling
AB testing & observation
Facial recognition
META-ANALYSIS
Next
TECHNOLOGY
RISE OF CONNECTED
TV
Connected TV user experiences are improving
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Smartphone
Tablet
Smart TV
And a growing number of entry points – both an opportunity & challenge
Many household’s will have multiple entry points into connected TV experiences
1. Device-syncing 2. Smart TV apps 3. Consoles and set-top boxes
Rights-holders, broadcasters and software services
Opportunities to trial brand experiences now
New formats & providersApps: relatively uncluttered
Content hubs
INTEGRATED COMMERCE
Not e-commerce vs. store – retail channels overlap and blur across customer journeys
Physical and digital experiences reinforce each other
Multichannel customers are more valuable
Source: Tesco, Winning in the New Era of Retail, 2014
Store visits are already a significant part of e-commerce
Sources: Redsock Multichannel Retail 2013; IMRG** of eligible General Merchandise sales (i.e. excluding food and impossible items like washing machines and sofas)* John Lewis state that 34% of John Lewis sales are collected in Waitrose Stores! So actually their figure is probably higher in total. Click-and-collect was offered at 97 Waitrose's and 35 John Lewis's
On average 10% of all UK online transactions
collected in store
Key omnichannel challenges
Data infrastructure – universal analytics framework
Quantifying online-to-offline and offline-to-online
App-based CRM strategies
Enabling seamless (and non-invasive) personalisation
BEHAVIOUR
ATTENTION DEFICIT
As digital media has grown we are spending more time with media overall
But this abundance has the effect of making attention scarce
This is amplified by media platform switching
Clarity & consistency is now a differentiator
Clarity & consistency is now a differentiator
GENERATION GAP
Generation gap
Generation gap
Over 50’s control 80% of Britain’s wealth
People aged between 50 and 74 spend twice as much as the under-30s on cinema tickets
Between 2000 and 2010 restaurant spending 65-74’s increased 33% vs. 18% less for under 30’s
Source: The Economist, Demography, 27th Sept 2014
We need to re-think our stereotypes about 50+ groups
vs.
Over 50’s feel stereotyped and/or ignored by marketing
66% feel that most advertising is aimed at 16-to-34 year olds
Source: High50 / Research Now, The 50+ Project 2014
95% feel that Apple and Samsung don’t target them at all
(21% couldn’t live without a smartphone; 57% really enjoy having a smartphone)
Young people are becoming more prudent, less hedonistic
At the same their category needs & expectations are shifting
PRIVACY VALUE
EXCHANGE
Users are increasingly aware of good (and bad) use of their data
And some are taking control
On average 9.26% of impressions are ad-blocked, rising up to 17.7% for tech sites
There are 5m estimated VPN users in the UK
Sources: Global Web Index 2014 & ClarityRay 2013
Nonetheless, many users understand there is a value exchange
84% of 18-34’s are comfortable sharing personal
data with businesses via social logins if
there is a decent value exchange
59% of all users are willing to
share personal data for brands if they make it clear
what it will be used for
Source: Gigya, 2014
Good user experience should underpin data collection & application
Intelligent retargetingGive users control & explain the benefits of data-sharing
‘Be as smart as puppy’ – only collect what you need to make
UX work
PRACTICE
MARKETING MEDIA
SYSTEM
Data & connected media capabilities will lead to system marketing
RELEVANCE
GRANULARITY INTEGRATION
ACCELERATION
Behavior-based
Purchased-based
Segments
Personalized
Individual-level, Scoring
Simultaneouslydealing with allPaid Owned Earned
touchpoints
Agility
Real-Time
Consumers’Interests
This will go beyond the current digital channels
NEW PATHS TO GROWTH
1. Competitive brands hardly differ in loyalty levels.
2. Their difference in size is due to the difference in their user bases.
3. Reach, penetration and saliency strategies are more effective than loyalty-driving strategies.
Physical + mental availability
Does the received wisdom about brand growth apply in the digital world?
Digital customers exhibit greater affinity
Domino’s Pizza Onlinemean score
Offlinemean score
Is a brand I love 7.4 6.9
Brand advocacy 7.2 6.6
Brand consideration 7.5 7.0
Domino’s Pizza Online Offline
They communicate with me a lot 21% 13%
Source: Arena Media Brand Growth Research 2014
And can significantly alter category norms
Source: Arena Media Brand Growth Research 2014
% Average books bought
Physical books – (Amazon) 54% 5.1
Physical books – (Retail) 49% 4.9
E-books – (Amazon) 34% 8.7
Average 6.2
Average number of bets placed in last 3 months
Website Store/person App
Average 8.2 6.9 8.9
Average amount bet in last 3 months
Website Store/person App
Average £81.21 £82.16 £111.70
A new kind of availability
Virtual
availability
New paths to growth
Growth ‘from below’
Growth ‘from above’
New paths to growth
CrowdsourcingFreemiumGrowth-hackingDigital footprintCRMMember-get-memberNetwork effects‘Earned’ mediaPartner marketing
Effective SOVSalience
Brand extensions & launches‘Upper funnel’ marketing
Direct responseBrand comms
Content distribution
This can apply even in ‘traditional’ categoriesA
mo
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Source: Nicholas Lovell, The Curve
Beyond
TECHNOLOGY
CO-CREATION & CUSTOMISATION
‘Kickstarting’ is getting into popular culture
Its not just technology & entertainment
Its not just technology & entertainment
Its not just technology & entertainment
Its not just technology & entertainment
There have been a few brand experiments, but remains a relatively untapped area
Technologies also developing to enable product mass-customisation
As one-off brand initiatives
Or to customers en masse
INTERNET OF USEFUL THINGS
The Internet of Things is top of Gartner’s peak of inflated expectations
IoT hype isn’t matching reality
33% of people who purchased a wearable in the past year either
do not use them any more or use them infrequently
75% of people are aware of
wearables technologies
10% are interested in using them
Sources: TNS September 2014; PwC The Wearable Future October 2014
Single-purpose devices are likely to do better
Most desirable products (by intent to purchase)
1. Fitbit 2. GoPro 3. Google Glass 4. Pebble 5. Nike Fuelband 6. Jawbone 7. VivoFit 8. iWatch
Source: Brandwatch July 2014
IoT will be much wider than wearable tech
In-car and in-home are arguably more promising areas
Brands are starting to experiment – service design is a bigger opportunity than advertising
Voice is a key area to start developing for right now
And there are opportunities to leverage immersive experiences and devices
Virtual reality demonstrations Interactive retail technology
AR apps
PREDICTIVE DESIGN
Predictive design: the ‘5th stage’ of technology
1. Hardware
2. Software and OS
4. Data
3. Sensors
5. Prediction
Predictive design: the ‘5th stage’ of technology
Predictive design: the ‘5th stage’ of technology
Which will shape next generation responsive design
Interactive screens Voice
“V-commerce” Connected living room
And OS-based services across
Designing services for new interfaces
Where is the customer and what are they doing?
Serving their need at that point
Context
Service
Device OS, screen size, gesture, voice
Design Designing quick, intuitive user experiences
Outcome Transact, prime a transaction, reward, entertain
MONEY 2.0
Mobile interactions have increased 13x from 2009 - 2014
Mobile is starting to change the way we pay and manage money
Mobile is starting to change the way we pay and manage money
+100% +10%
+300%
From 45m in 2013 to 90m in 2014
10% monthly growth in payments in 2014
Payments to grow from 14m in 2013 to 44m in 2014
Over 10million contactless card journeys, to roll out across the TFL network in 2014
Despite some consolidation it remains a fragmented space for end users
Relative penetration is still low
Security remains a concern for many
There will be further consolidation – and a few early ‘winning’ candidates
Backed by high street banks
1m registered users in 3 months
Rolling out in waves across participating banks
1m cards activated within 72 hours
Already bigger than all contactless competitors
156m registered users to migrate into mobile services
An established intermediary
Has reach (and revenue) to consolidate
Peer-to-peer Payments End-to-end
Beyond payments, banking and currency disruptions are on the horizon
‘Mobile-first’ banking propositions have started to arrive
Beyond payments, banking and currency disruptions are on the horizon
“Crypto currencies are inevitable, once we figure out regulation and how to keep
our digital wallets safe in the future.”
- Eric Schmidt
Despite it’s volatility, there is still an active market in Bitcoin. If regulated and made friendly for end users, virtual currency could be a significant change in banking practice & money transfer.
BEHAVIOUR
TV VIEWING: GENERATIONAL TIPPING POINT
At the moment the vast majority of our viewing is still on linear TV
Average daily viewing: 3:55
88% watched live
0:03 daily average across phones, tablets & laptops
1.5% of total TV viewing on connected devices
Source: BARB / Thinkbox 2013 average
But the recession has softened the start of a clear shift
But the recession has softened the start of a clear shift
Generational media differences are stark
We are seeing the start of a fundamental change
A screen in every room Living room ‘cinema screen’ + ‘satellite’ connected screens
MURDERED BY
MODERNITY
Murdered by modernity
“The Murdered by Modernity mindset is bound to gain greater prominence in the years ahead.
But this is not a trend that will necessarily cause contradictory feelings. We might like to complain about our always-on lifestyles and our inability to escape from technology, but we will also enjoy our ability to find information instantly with a click or a swipe and each new innovation will be welcomed with considerable enthusiasm.”
- Richard Nicholls, Future Foundation
People are increasingly feeling the need to switch off
Tot
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-54
55-6
465
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AB
C1
C2
DE
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%2010 2012 2014
“The stresses of modern life mean that people are less happy than they used to be”
“Sometimes I feel the need to get away from phone calls, emails and text messages and
switch off” | % agree or agree strongly
Baby boomers
58%
Gen Y
60%Gen X
65%
60%
Source: nVision Research | Base: 2,200 - 5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2013
We are starting to build a set of normative behaviours around use of technology
And brands are intervening
Brands can help people save time & minimise digital clutter
Less is more
Quality over quantity
Save time, not dwell time
Good old fashioned effective frequency
DEMOGRAPHIC RECKONING
We’ll see 2m growth amongst 65+ by 2020
Source: ONS / nVision | Base: UK
An ageing population will have consequences for productivity and fiscal health
In developed economies we have hit a demographic ‘sweet spot’
optimal to economic growth – the point at which a high proportion of
working age people support a small pool of dependants.
We are now emerging out that ‘sweet spot’ into a more challenging
period.
This is already starting to materialise
Source: Joseph Rowntree Foundation 2014
Life trajectories are changing - it’s become harder to define customers by age alone
Sources: Source: ONS/nVision | Base: England and Wales, 2013; Labour Force Survey, ONS/nVision | Base : Individuals aged 20-34, UK
This will have significant consequences
Parents & workers for longer Dependants for longer
Drive discretionary spending Squeezed discretionary spending
Spending more on care Spending more on pensions
Younger for longer ‘Older’ earlier
CONFRONTING CLIMATE CHANGE
People have been more worried about money than the environment
But that is starting to change
Genuine sustainability will be a competitive advantage
The Global 100: World Leaders in Clean Capitalism
50% of Millennials think that in the future, more than any other sector of society, business will achieve the greatest impact on solving society's biggest challenges
This may require brands & businesses to change how they operate
Services vs. products Sacrificing for sustainability
Now, Next, Beyond
Rise of connected TVMarketing personalisation
Integrated commerce
The mobile majorityContent as mediaMultidevice world
Digitisation of mediaData driving media
Co-creation & customisationInternet of useful things
Predictive designMoney 2.0
Attention deficitThe generation gap
Privacy value exchange
Social goes mobileThe power of the ‘1st screen’
Modern familiesWhat recovery?
TV - generational tipping pointMurdered by modernityDemographic reckoning
Confronting climate change
The marketing-media systemNew paths to growth
The real value of socialMeaningful marketingExplicit and implicit
Now Next Beyond
Tech
Behaviour
Practice